物流与供应链(英文)

AStrategicFrameworkforSupplyChainDesign,Planning,andOperation,Syllabus,Outline,Whatissupplychainmanagement?AsupplychainstrategyframeworkSevenElevenJapan,TraditionalView:LogisticsintheEconomy(1990,1996),FreightTransportation$352,$455BillionInventoryExpense$221,$311BillionAdministrativeExpense$27,$31BillionLogisticsrelatedactivity11%,10.5%ofGNP.,Source:CassLogistics,TraditionalView:LogisticsintheManufacturingFirm,Profit4%LogisticsCost21%MarketingCost27%ManufacturingCost48%,SupplyChainManagement:TheMagnitudeintheTraditionalView,Estimatedthatthegroceryindustrycouldsave$30billion(10%ofoperatingcostbyusingeffectivelogisticsandsupplychainstrategiesAtypicalboxofcerealspends104daysfromfactorytosaleAtypicalcarspends15daysfromfactorytodealershipLauraAshleyturnsitsinventory10timesayear,fivetimesfasterthan3yearsago,SupplyChainManagement:TheTrueMagnitude,Compaqestimatesitlost$0.5billionto$1billioninsalesin1995becauselaptopswerenotavailablewhenandwhereneededWhenthe1gigprocessorwasintroducedbyAMD,thepriceofthe800megprocessordroppedby30%PstoresopeninclusterswithcorrespondingDCs844storesintheTokyoregion;SevenElevenhas5,523storesin21prefectures,InformationStrategy,Quickaccesstouptodateinformation(ascontrastswithdata)Highspeeddatanetworklinkingstores,headquarters,DCsandsuppliersStorehardwareStorecomputerPOSregisterslinkedtostorecomputerGraphicOrderTerminalsScannerterminalsforreceiving,InformationAnalysisofPOSData,SalesanalysisofproductcategoriesovertimeSKUanalysisAnalysisofwasteordisposalTenday(week)salestrendbySKUSalestrendsfornewproductSalestrendbytimeanddayListofslowmovingitemsContributionofproducttosectionsinstoredisplay,DistributionStrategy,Deliveryarrivesfromover200plantsDeliveryiscrossdockedatDC(over80DCsforfood)FoodDCsstorenoinventoryCombineddeliverysystem:frozenfoods,chilledfoods,roomtemperatureandhotfoods11truckvisitsperstoreperday(comparedto70in1974)Nosupplier(notevencoke!)deliversdirect,TheFuture,7-elevengrowingrapidlyintheUS7-elevenaimstobeawebdepotinboththeUSandJapan.Doesthismakesensefromasupplychainperspective?,Summary,TwoviewsofasupplychainAstrategicframework:Achievingfit-Efficiency/ResponsivenessandSupplychaindriversTailoredlogisticsE-commerceframework7-eleven,47,PlanningDemandandSupplyinaSupplyChain,ForecastingandAggregatePlanning,48,LearningObjectives,PhasesofsupplychaindecisionsIdentifycomponentsofademandforecastTimeseriesforecastingEstimateforecasterrorAggregateplanninginthesupplychain,49,SupplyChainDecisions,Strategyordesign:ForecastPlanning:ForecastOperationActualdemandProduction:Scheduling,inventorycontrol,aggregateplanningMarketing:Sales-forceallocation,promotion,newproductintroductionFinance:Plant/equipmentinvestment,budgetaryplanningPersonnel:Workforceplanning,hiring,layoffs,50,Characteristicsofforecasts,Forecastsarealwayswrong.Shouldincludeexpectedvalueandmeasureoferror.Long-termforecastsarelessaccuratethanshort-termforecasts:ForecasthorizonAggregateforecastsaremoreaccuratethandisaggregateforecasts,51,DemandForecastInvolveFactors:,PastdemandPlannedadvertisingormarketingeffortsDisplaypositioninacatalogStateoftheeconomyPlannedpricediscountsActionscompetitorshavetaken,52,ForecastingMethods,Qualitative:Subjective,humanjudgmentLittlehistoricaldataExpertshavemarketintelligenceTimeSeries:PastdemandhistoryisagoodindicatoroffuturedemandStatic;AdaptiveCausal:CorrelationbetweendemandandenvironmentfactorsSimulation:Imitatethecustomerchoices,53,BasicApproachtoDemandForcasting,UnderstandtheobjectiveofforecastingIntegratedemandplanningandforecastingIdentifythemajorfactorsthatinfluencethedemandforecastUnderstandandidentifycustomersegmentsDeterminetheappropriateforecastingtechniqueEstablishperformanceanderrormeasuresfortheforecast,54,Componentsofanobservation,Observeddemand(O)=Systematiccomponent(S)+Randomcomponent(R)Multiplicative:S=LTseasonalfactorAdditive:S=L+T+SeasonalfactorMixed:S=(L+T)seasonalfactor,Level(currentdeseasonalizeddemand),Trend(growthordeclineindemand),Seasonality(predictableseasonalfluctuation),55,TimeSeriesForecasting,Forecastdemandforthenextfourquarters.,56,TimeSeriesForecasting,57,Forecastingmethods,StaticAdaptiveMovingaverageSimpleexponentialsmoothingHoltsmodel(withtrend)Wintersmodel(withtrendandseasonality),58,S=（L+T）SeasonalityL=Estimateoflevelforperiod0;T=Estimateoftrend(perperiod);St=EstimateofseasonalfactorforperiodtDt=ActualdemandobservedinperiodtFt=ForecastofdemandforperiodtFt+l=L+(t+l)TSt+l,StaticForecastingmethods,59,Forpeven,Forpodd,P:periodicity,EstimatingLevel:deseasonalizeddemand,60,P=4,t=3,Example,ExcelFile,61,LinearRegression,62,EstimatingSeasonalFactor,SeasonalCycles,63,ForecastfortheNextFourQuarters,64,AdaptiveForecastingmethods,Lt=Estimateoflevelattheendofperiodt;Tt=Estimateoftrendattheendofperiodt;St=Estimateofseasonalfactorforperiodt;Ft=Forecastofdemandforperiodt(forperiodt);Dt=Actualdemandobservedinperiodt;Et=Forecasterrorobservedinperiodt;At=Absolutedeviationforperiodt=|Et|),65,Initialize:L0T0S0；ForecastEstimateerrorModifyestimate,FourSteps,66,Systematiccomponent=Level;,MovingAverage,67,SimpleExponentialSmoothing,Systematiccomponent=Level;,68,Trend-CorrectedExponentialSmoothing(HoltsModel),Systematiccomponentofdemand=Level+trend;,69,Systematiccomponentofdemand=(Level+Trend)Seasonalfactor,Trend-andSeasonality-CorrectedExponentialSmoothing(WintersModel),70,Errormeasures,71,NATURALGAS.com,72,AggregatePlanningatRedTomatoTools,73,FundamentaltradeoffsinAggregatePlanning,Capacity(regulartime,overtime,subcontract)InventoryBacklog/lostsalesBasicStrategiesChasestrategyTimeflexibilityfromworkforceorcapacityLevelstrategy,74,AggregatePlanning,75,AggregatePlanning(DefineDecisionVariables),76,AggregatePlanning(DefineObjectiveFunction),77,AggregatePlanning(DefineConstraintsLinkingVariables),Workforcesizeforeachmonthisbasedonhiringandlayoffs,78,AggregatePlanning(Constraints),Productionforeachmonthcannotexceedcapacity,79,AggregatePlanning(Constraints),Inventorybalanceforeachmonth,80,AggregatePlanning(Constraints),Overtimeforeachmonth,ExcelFile,81,Scenarios,Increaseinholdingcost(from$2to$6)Overtimecostdropsto$4.1perhourIncreaseddemandfluctuation,82,IncreasedDemandFluctuation,83,ManagingPredictableVariability,ManageSupplyManagecapacityTimeflexibilityfromworkforce(OTandotherwise)UseofseasonalworkforceUseofsubcontractingUseofdualfacilities-dedicatedandflexibleDesigningproductflexibilityintotheproductionprocessesManageinventoryComponentcommonalitySeasonalinventoryofpredictableproducts,84,ManagingPredictableVariability,ManagedemandwithpricingOriginalpricing:Cost=$422,275,Revenue=$640,000DemandincreasefromdiscountingMarketgrowthStealingmarketshareForwardbuyingDiscountof$1increasesperioddemandby10%andmoves20%ofnexttwomonthsdemandforward,85,Off-Peak(January)Discountfrom$40to$39,Cost=$421,915,Revenue=$643,400,Profit=$221,485,86,Peak(April)Discountfrom$40to$39,Cost=$438,857,Revenue=$650,140,Profit=$211,283,87,DemandManagement,PricingandAggregatePlanningmustbedonejointlyFactorsaffectingdiscounttimingProductMargin:Impactofhighermargin($40insteadof$31)Consumption:Changingfractionofincreasecomingfromforwardbuy(100%increaseinconsumptioninsteadof10%increase)Forwardbuy,88,PerformanceUnderDifferentScenarios,89,FactorsAffectingPromotionTiming,90,SummaryofLearningObjectives,ForecastingAggregateplanningSupplyanddemandmanagementduringaggregateplanningwithpredictabledemandvariationSupplymanagementleversDemandmanagementlevers,91,FactorsInfluencingDiscountTiming,ImpactofdiscountonconsumptionImpactofdiscountonforwardbuyProductmargin,92,Inventory/Capacitytradeoff,LevelingcapacityforcesinventorytobuildupinanticipationofseasonalvariationindemandCarryinglowlevelsofinventoryrequirescapacitytovarywithseasonalvariationindemandorenoughcapacitytocoverpeakdemandduringseason,93,JanuaryDiscount:100%increaseinconsumption,saleprice=$40($39),Offpeakdiscount:Cost=$456,750,Revenue=$699,560,94,Peak(April)Discount:100%increaseinconsumption,saleprice=$40($39),Peakdiscount:Cost=$536,200,Revenue=$783,520,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,95,PlanningandManagingInventoriesinaSupplyChain,OptimalMatchingofSupplyandDemand,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,96,Outline,TheroleofinventoryinthesupplychainWhyholdinventory?EconomiesofscaleBatchsizeandcycletimeQuantitydiscountsShorttermdiscounts/TradepromotionsStochasticvariabilityofsupplyanddemandEvaluatingservicelevelgivensafetyinventoryEvaluatingsafetyinventorygivendesiredservicelevelLeverstoimproveperformance,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,97,RoleofInventoryintheSupplyChain,Overstocking:AmountavailableexceedsdemandLiquidation,Obsolescence,HoldingUnderstocking:DemandexceedsamountavailableLostmarginandfuturesalesGoal:Matchingsupplyanddemand,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,98,RoleofInventoryintheSupplyChain,Cost,Availability,Efficiency,Responsiveness,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,99,Whyholdcycleinventory?,EconomiesofscaleFixedcostsassociatedwithlotsQuantitydiscountsTradePromotions,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,100,Fixedcosts:OptimalLotSizeandReorderInterval(EOQ),R:AnnualdemandS:SetuporOrderCostC:Costperunith:HoldingcostperyearasafractionofproductcostH:HoldingcostperunitperyearQ:LotSizeT:Reorderinterval,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,101,Example,Demand,R=12,000computersperyearUnitcost,C=$500Holdingcost,h=0.2Fixedcost,S=$4,000/orderQ=980computersCycleinventory=Q/2=490Flowtime=Q/2R=0.49monthReorderinterval,T=0.98month,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,102,KeyPointsfromBatching,Indecidingtheoptimallotsizethetradeoffisbetweensetup(order)costandholdingcost.Ifdemandincreasesbyafactorof4,itisoptimaltoincreasebatchsizebyafactorof2andproduce(order)twiceasoften.Cycleinventory(indaysofdemand)shoulddecreaseasdemandincreases.Iflotsizeistobereduced,onehastoreducefixedordercost.Toreducelotsizebyafactorof2,ordercosthastobereducedbyafactorof4.,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,103,Strategiesforreducingfixedcosts,Wal-Mart:3dayreplenishmentcycleSevenElevenJapan:MultipledailyreplenishmentPRM=1,200;RH=120Commontransportationcost,S=$4,000ProductspecificordercostsL=$1,000;sM=$1,000;sH=$1,000Holdingcost,h=0.2UnitcostCL=$1,000;CM=$1,000;CH=$1,000,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,105,DeliveryOptions,NoAggregation:EachproductorderedseparatelyCompleteAggregation:AllproductsdeliveredoneachtruckTailoredAggregation:Selectedsubsetsofproductssoneachtruck,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,106,NoAggregation:Ordereachproductindependently,Totalcost=$155,140,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,107,CompleteAggregation:Orderallproductsjointly,Annualordercost=9.75$7,000=$68,250Annualtotalcost=$136,528,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,108,TailoredAggregation:OrderingSelectedSubsets,Step1:IdentifymostfrequentlyorderedproductStep2:IdentifyfrequencyofotherproductsasamultipleStep3:RecalculateorderingfrequencyofmostfrequentlyorderedproductStep4:Identifyorderingfrequencyofallproducts,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,109,TailoredAggregation:Orderselectedsubsets,Annualordercost=$61,560Totalannualcost=$131,004,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,110,Impactofproductspecificordercost,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,111,LessonsFromAggregation,AggregationallowsfirmtolowerlotsizewithoutincreasingcostCompleteaggregationiseffectiveifproductspecificfixedcostisasmallfractionofjointfixedcostTailoredaggregationiseffectiveifproductspecificfixedcostislargefractionofjointfixedcost,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,112,QuantityDiscounts,LotsizebasedAllunitsMarginalunitVolumebasedHowshouldbuyerreact?Whatareappropriatediscountingschemes?,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,113,All-UnitQuantityDiscounts,Cost/Unit,$3,$2.96,$2.92,OrderQuantity,5,000,10,000,TotalMaterialCost,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,114,All-UnitQuantityDiscounts,EvaluateEOQforpriceinrangeqitoqi+1IfqiEOQqi+1,evaluatecostoforderingEOQIfEOQqi,evaluatecostoforderingqiIfEOQqi+1,evaluatecostoforderingqi+1Evaluateminimumcostoverallpriceranges,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,115,MarginalUnitQuantityDiscounts,Cost/Unit,$3,$2.96,$2.92,OrderQuantity,5,000,10,000,TotalMaterialCost,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Inventory,116,Marginal-UnitQuantityDiscounts,EvaluateEOQforpriceinrangeqitoqi+1IfqiEOQ2DCs,Customer,DC,Whereinventoryneedstobefora3dayorderresponsetime-typicalresults-5DCs,Customer,DC,Whereinventoryneedstobeforanextdayorderresponsetime-typicalresults-13DCs,Customer,DC,Whereinventoryneedstobeforasameday/nextdayorderresponsetime-typicalresults-26DCs,CostsandNumberofFacilities,Costs,Numberoffacilities,PercentServiceLevelWithinPromisedTime,Transportation,CostBuild-upasafunctionoffacilities,AFrameworkforGlobalSiteLocation,PHASEISupplyChainStrategy,PHASEIIRegionalFacilityConfiguration,PHASEIIIDesirableSites,PHASEIVLocationChoices,CompetitiveSTRATEGY,INTERNALCONSTRAINTSCapital,growthstrategy,existingnetwork,PRODUCTIONTECHNOLOGIESCost,Scale/Scopeimpact,supportrequired,flexibility,COMPETITIVEENVIRONMENT,PRODUCTIONMETHODSSkillneeds,responsetime,FACTORCOSTSLabor,materials,sitespecific,GLOBALCOMPETITION,TARIFFSANDTAXINCENTIVES,REGIONALDEMANDSize,growth,homogeneity,localspecifications,POLITICAL,EXCHANGERATEANDDEMANDRISK,AVAILABLEINFRASTRUCTURE,LOGISTICSCOSTSTransport,inventory,coordination,TailoredNetwork:Multi-EchelonFinishedGoodsNetwork,Store1,Store1,Store2,Store2,Store3,Store3,GravityMethodsforLocation,TonMile-CenterSolutionx,y:WarehouseCoordinatesxn,yn:Coordinatesofdeliverylocationndn:DistancetodeliverylocationnFn:Annualtonnagetodeliverylocationn,Min,ExcelFile,NetworkOptimizationModels,AllocatingdemandtoproductionfacilitiesLocatingfacilitiesandallocatingcapacity,Whichplantstoestablish?Howtoconfigurethenetwork?,KeyCosts:FixedfacilitycostTransportationcostProductioncostInventorycostCoordinationcost,DemandAllocationModel,Whichmarketisservedbywhichplant?Whichsupplysourcesareusedbyaplant?xij=Quantityshippedfromplantsiteitocustomerj,ApplichemDemandAllocation,Applichem,ApplichemDemandAllocation(1982),Demand,30,32,26,11,Venezuela,220,Capacity,37,45,470,185,50,45,115,200,36,115,185,AnnualCost=$74,252,000,PlantLocationwithMultipleSourcing,yi=1ifplantislocatedatsitei,0otherwisexij=Quantityshippedfromplantsiteitocustomerj,ApplichemProductionNetwork1982(withduties),Venezuela,AnnualCost=$72,916,400,ApplichemProductionNetwork1982(withoutduties),Mexico,Canada,Venezuela,Frankfurt,Gary,Sunchem,Mexico,Canada,LatinAmerica,Europe,U.S.A,Japan,AnnualCost=66,328,100,1981Network(Optimal),Mexico,Canada,Venezuela,Frankfurt,Gary,Sunchem,Mexico,Canada,LatinAmerica,Europe,U.S.A,Japan,AnnualCost=$79,598,500,1981Network(SunchemClosed),Mexico,Canada,Venezuela,Frankfurt,Gary,Sunchem,Mexico,Canada,LatinAmerica,Europe,U.S.A,Japan,AnnualCost=$82,246,800,CashFlowsFromSunchemPlant,ValueofAdding0.1MillionPoundsCapacity(1982),Shouldbeevaluatedasanoptionandpricedaccordingly.,EvaluatingFacilityInvestments:AMTires,U.S.Demand=100,000;Mexicodemand=50,0001US$=9pesos,Demandgoesupordownby20percentwithprobability0.5andexchangerategoesupordownby25percentwithprobability0.5.,AMTires,AMTires,Fourpossiblecapacityscenarios:BothdedicatedBothflexibleU.S.flexible,MexicodedicatedU.S.dedicated,MexicoflexibleForeachnodesolvethedemandallocationmodel.,AMTires:DemandAllocationforRU=144;RM=72,E=14.06,100,000,44,000,6,000,Profit=$649,360,FacilityDecisionatAMTires,CapacityInvestmentStrategies,SpeculativeStrategySinglesourcingHedgingStrategyMatchrevenueandcostexposureFlexibleStrategyExcesstotalcapacityinmultipleplantsFlexibletechnologies,Summary,FactorsinfluencingfacilitydecisionsAstrategicframeworkforfacilitylocationGravitymethodsforlocationNetworkoptimizationmodelsValuecapacityasarealoption,LocationAllocationDecisions,Plants,Warehouses,1,2,Whichplantstoestablish?Whichwarehousestoestablish?Howtoconfigurethenetwork?,Markets,PlantLocationwithSingleSourcing,yi=1ifplantislocatedatsitei,0otherwisexij=1ifmarketjissuppliedfromplantsitei,0otherwise,ConventionalNetwork,CustomerStore,ComponentManufacturing,FinalAssembly,CustomerStore,CustomerStore,CustomerStore,CustomerStore,GravityMethodsforLocation,Ton-CenterSolutionx,y:WarehouseCoordinatesxn,yn:CoordinatesofdeliverylocationnFn:Annualtonnagetodeliverylocationn,Min,GravityMethodsforLocation,Mile-CenterSolutionx,y:WarehouseCoordinatesxn,yn:Coordinatesofdeliverylocationndn:Distancetodeliverylocationn,Min,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Coordination,271,SupplyChainCoordination,TheroleofInformationTechnology,5/16/2020,S.Chopra/Coordination,272,LearningObjectives,Whatiscoordination?Obstaclestocoordination:TheBull-WhipEffectCountermeas