龙房商道项目可行性研究报告.doc

airport was built during the war, but for some reason it could not be used then. Last year, however, it came into use. Over a hundred people must have been driven away from their homes by the noise. I am one of the few people left. Sometimes I think this house will be knocked down by a passing plane. I have been offered a large sum of money to go away, but I am determined to stay here. Everybody says I must be mad and they are probably right.Lesson22 A glass envelope 玻璃信封My daughter, Jane, never dreamed of receiving a letter from a girl of her own age in Holland. Last year, we were travelling across the Channel and Jane put a piece of paper with her name and address on it into a bottle. She threw the bottle into the sea. She never thought of it again, but ten months later, she received a letter from a girl in Holland. Both girls write to each other regularly now. However, they have decided to use the post-office. Letters will cost a litt1e more, but they will certainly travel faster. Lesson23 A new house 新居I had a letter from my sister yesterday. She lives in Nigeria. In her letter, she said that she would come to England next year. If she comes, she will get a surprise. We are now living in a beautiful new house in the country. Work on it had begun before my sister left. The house was completed five months ago. In my letter, I told her that she could stay with us. The house has many large rooms and there is a lovely garden. It is a very modern house, so it looks strange to some people. It must be the only modern house in the district.Lesson24 It could be worse 不幸中之万幸I entered the hotel managers office and sat down. I had just lost &50 and I felt very upset. I left the money in my room, I said, and its not there now. The manager was sympathetic, but he could do nothing. Everyones losing money these days, he said. He started to complain about this wicked world but was interrupted by a knock at the door. A girl came in and put an envelope on his desk. It contained &5o. I found this outside this gentlemans room she said. Well, I said to the manager, there is still some honesty in this world !lesson25 Do the English speak English? 英国人讲的是英语吗？I arrived in London at last. The railway station was big, black and dark. I did not know the way to my hotel, so I asked a porter. I not only spoke English very carefully, but very clearly as well. The porter, however, could not understand me; I repeated my question several times and at last he understood. He answered me, but he spoke neither slowly nor clearly. I am a foreigner, I said. Then he spoke slowly, but I could not understand him. My teacher never spoke English like that! The porter and I looked at each other and smiled. Then he said something and I understood it. Youll soon learn English! he said. I wonder. In England, each man speaks a different language. The English understand each other, but I dont understand them ! Do they speak English ?lesson26 The best art critics 最佳美术评论家I am an art student and I paint a lot of pictures. Many people pretend that they understand modern art. They always tell you what a picture is about. Of course, many pictures arc not about anything. They are just pretty patterns. We like them in the same way that we like pretty curtain material. I think that young children often appreciate modern pictures better than anyone else. They notice more. My sister is only seven, but she always tells me whether my pictures are good or not. She came into my room yesterday. What are you doing ? she asked. Im hanging this picture on the wall, I answered. Its a new one. Do you like it ? She looked at it critically for a moment. Its all right, she said, but isnt it upside-down ? I looked at it again. She was right! It was!Lesson27 A wet night 雨夜Late in the afternoon, the boys put up their tent in the middle of a field. As soon as this was done, they cooked a meal over an open fire. They were all hungry and the food smelt good. After a wonderful meal, they told stories and sang songs by the camp fire. But some time later it began to rain. The boys felt tired so they pet out the fire and crept into their tent. Their sleeping-bags were warm and comfortable, so they all slept soundly. In the middle of the night, two boys woke up and began shouting. The tent was full of water! They all leapt out of their sleeping-bags and hurried outside. It was raining heavily and they found that a stream had formed in the field. The stream wound its way across the field and then flowed right under their tent!Lesson28 No parking 禁止停车Jasper White is one of those rare people who believes in ancient myths. He has just bought a new house in the city, but ever since he moved in, he has had trouble with motorists. when he returns home at night, he always finds that someone has parked a car outside his gate. Because of this, he has not been able to get his own car into his garage even once. Jasper has put up No Parking signs outside his gate, but these have not had any effect. Now he has put an ugly stone head over the gate. It is one of the ugliest faces I have ever seen. I asked him what it was and he told me that it was Medusa, the Gorgon. Jasper hopes that she will turn motorists to stone. But none of them has been turned to stone yet!Lesson29 Taxi! 出租汽车！Captain Ben Fawcett has bought an unusual taxi and has begun a new service. The taxi is a small Swiss aeroplane called a Pilatus Porter. This wonderful plane can carry seven passengers. The most surprising thing about it, however, is that it can land anywhere: on snow, water, or even on a ploughed field. Captain Fawcetts first passenger was a doctor who flew from Birmingham to a lonely village in the Welsh mountains. Since then, Captain Fawcett has flown passengers to many unusual places. Once he landed on the roof of a block of flats and on another occasion, he landed in a deserted car park. Captain Fawcett has just refused a strange request from a businessman. The man wanted to fly to Rockall, a lonely island in the Atlantic Ocean, but Captain Fawcett did not take him because the trip was too dangerous.Lesson30 Football or polo? 足球还是水球？The Wayle is a small river that cuts across the park near my home. I like sitting by the Wayle on fine afternoons. It was warm last Sunday, so I went and sat on the river bank as usual. Some children were playing games on the bank and there were some people rowing on the river. Suddenly, one of the children kicked a ball very hard and it went towards a passing boat. Some people on the bank called out to the man in the boat, but he did not hear them. The ball struck him so hard that he nearly fell into the water. I turned to look at the children, but there werent any in sight: they had all run away! The man laughed when he realized what had happened. He called out to the children and threw the ball back to the bank. Lesson31 Success story 成功者的故事Yesterday afternoon Frank Hawkins was telling me about his experiences as a young man. Frank is now the head of a very large business company, but as a boy he used to work in a small shop. It was his job to repair bicycles and at that time he used to work fourteen hours a day. He saved money for years and in 1938 he bought a small work-shop of his own. During the war Frank used to make spare parts for aeroplanes. At that time he had two helpers. By the end of the war, the small work-shop had become a large factory which employed seven hundred and twenty-eight people. Frank smiled when he remembered his hard early years and the long road to success. He was still smiling when the door opened and his wife came in. She wanted him to repair their sons bicycle! Lesson32 Shopping made easy 购物变得很方便People are not so honest as they once were. The temptation to steal is greater than ever before-especially in large shops. A detective recently watched a well-dressed woman who always went into a large store on Monday mornings. One Monday, there were fewer people in the shop than usual when the woman came in, so it was easier for the detective to watch her. The woman first bought a few small articles. After a little time, she chose one of the most expensive dresses in the shop and handed it to an assistant who wrapped it up for her as quickly as possible. Then the woman simply took the parcel and walked out of the shop without paying. When she was arrested, the detective found out that the shop-assistant was her daughter. The girl gave her mother a free dress once a week !lesson33 Out of the darkness 冲出黑暗Nearly a week passed before the girl was able to explain what had happened to her. One afternoon she set out from the coast in a small boat and was caught in a storm. Towards evening, the boat struck a rock and the girl jumped into the sea. Then she swam to the shore after spending the whole night in the water. During that time she covered a distance of eight miles. Early next morning, she saw a light ahead. She knew she was near the shore because the light was high up on the cliffs. On arriving at the shore, the girl struggled up the cliff towards the light she had seen. That was all she remembered. When she woke up a day later, she found herself in hospital.Lesson34 Quick work 破案“神速”Ted Robinson has been worried all the week. Last Tuesday he received a letter from the local police. In the letter he was asked to call at the station. Ted wondered why he was wanted by the police, but he went to the station yesterday and now he is not worried any more. At the station, he was told by a smiling policeman that his bicycle had been found. Five days ago, the policeman told him, the bicycle was picked up in a small village four hundred miles away. It is now being sent to his home by train. Ted was most surprised when he heard the news. He was amused too, because he never expected the bicycle to be found. It was stolen twenty years ago when Ted was a boy of fifteen !Lesson35 Stop thief! 捉贼！Rov Trenton used to drive a taxi. A short while ago, however, he became a bus-driver and he was not regretted it. He is finding his new work far more exciting. When he was driving along Catford Street recently, he saw two thieves rush out of a shop and run towards a waiting car. One of them was carrying a bag full of money. Roy acted quickly and drove the bus straight at the thieves. The one with the money got such a fright that he dropped the bag. As the thieves were trying to get away in their car, Roy drove his bus into the back of it. While the battered car was moving away, Roy stopped his bus and telephoned the police. The thieves car was badly damaged and easy to recognize. Shortly afterwards, the police stopped the car and both men were arrested. Lesson36 Across the Channel 横渡海峡Erna Hart is going to swim across the English Channel tomorrow. She is going to set out from the French coast at five oclock in the morning. Erna is only fourteen years old and she hopes lo set up a new world record. She is a strong swimmer and many people feel that she is sure to succeed. Ernas father will set out with her in a small boat. Mr Hart has trained his daughter for years. Tomorrow he will be watching her anxiously as she swims the long distance to England. Erna 目 录报告摘要31 项目基本情况62 投资环境、宏观经济市场与商业市场分析62.1 北京市概况及投资环境分析62.2 北京市宏观经济发展基本情况62.3 北京市商业发展现状分析62.4 北京市商业地产市场的基本情况122.5 北京市商业地产市场发展总结193 商业地产项目开发的政策、法律及规划依据194立地开发条件194.1 项目立地条件194.2 项目地块基本指标204.3商业区位及道路交通204.4 附近商业及生活配套294.5 市政基础及公建配套设施304.6 立地综合评述315 项目所在区域商业地产的开发、出售、出租经营情况315.1供给分析315.2 需求分析345.3 租售分析385.4 对项目所在区域的商业地产开发的总体评价415.5 商业用房项目SWOT分析426 项目定位及设计建议446.1 市场定位446.2 产品定位506.3 目标客户定位547 项目综合分析57报告摘要1、项目概况龙房商道项目是北京龙鼎华房地产开发公司在北京东四环窑洼湖地区开发的大型商业地产项目，占地46亩，通过前期初步设计，计划建设面积约为6万平方米，拟建成东部地区的一个标志性的购物中心。2、项目分析结果通过对项目的自身条件与市场环境的分析，对本项目判断如下：2.1项目优势 项目位于规划中的环四环商业带上，交通的通达性和通畅性均好； 项目周边已经有一定规模和层次的居民住宅落成，形成基本消费； 项目西靠CBD商务人群，东接垡头边缘集团，未来顾客数量充足； 燕莎OUTLETS的开业形成初步且能够互补的商业氛围和充足客流； 项目前期良好的规划设计，将能充分灵活地满足商家和商户的需求； 开发商的商业物业持有经营原则使得本项目商业运营管理更易成功。2.2项目劣势 项目虽在四环路边，但由于周边建筑和道路问题造成了展示性不佳； 项目自身及周边目前正处于待开发阶段，商业成长需要一定的时间； 项目周边的基础设施相对不完善，窑洼湖桥的改善需要一定的时间； 项目现有的商业规划体量稍小，难以形成具有震撼力的规模化优势。2.3项目机会 商业发展的良好形势与WTO的开放，四环商业带正初现端倪； 项目位于快速成长的环四环商业带，将成为四环重要商业设施之一； 项目处于规划中的CBD东扩范围和重点区域，未来区域潜力巨大； 与OUTLETS等商业的业态错位互补，将可能形成“1+12”的效果； 项目区域的四、五环间的商业空缺，可能通过本项目的成功开发填补； 未来项目周边众多楼盘的兴建和人口入住，将使本项目基本商圈扩大。2.4项目威胁 未来东边三、四、五环之间商业发展的竞争关系将造成一定的威胁； 处于城市节点中心的华贸中心20万平方米商业对本项目的分流作用； 项目周边楼盘商业（如世纪华侨城）对本项目客流具一定的分流作用。综上所述，我们的结论是：项目区位未来发展方向良好，潜力巨大，本项目将拥有良好的发展空间。3、项目定位建议3.1项目整体定位通过分析，我们建议项目的定位是：为北京东南区域居民提供餐饮、娱乐和购物服务的休闲娱乐型购物中心（Shopping Center）。项目将立足于基本商圈的消费人群，规划满足居民基本消费需求的大型综合超市（HYPERMARKET），同时充分利用环四环的交通区位优势及与OUTLETS的错位及互补性定位，引入符合商圈需要且辐射能力极强的业态如餐饮娱乐、家居建材等，以吸引二三级商圈的商务人群与高收入阶层，从而建成东南四环区域的地标性的休闲娱乐购物中心。3.2 项目规模定位根据商圈消费力的估算，我们建议本项目的总面积在9万平方米左右，其中包括约2万平方米的停车场和7万平方米的商业面积。3.3 项目功能建议方案根据我们对本项目区位条件、市场定位及商圈内竞争状况的分析；并以经营内容选择原则为尺度而提出的两种可供选择的方案，其中每种方案必备的基本业态为：大型综合超市、各种专卖专营店、大型影城、KTV、大型餐饮、健身康体中心。 方案一：特色业种为大型影城和家居建材城； 方案二：特色业种为大型影城和电子数码城。我们认为第一种相对比较适合。1 项目基本情况龙房商道项目是北京龙鼎华房地产开发公司在北京东四环窑洼湖地区开发的大型商业地产项目，项目占地46亩，开发商通过前期设计，计划建设面积约为6万平方米，拟建成东部地区的一个标志性的购物中心。为了更好的对龙房商道项目进行定位和规划，北京龙鼎华房地产开发公司委托北京世纪华夏资产管理有限公司作为顾问方，对项目进行调研分析，并根据分析结果对项目进行定位，提交可行性研究报告。2 投资环境、宏观经济市场与商业市场分析2.1 北京市概况及投资环境分析详细内容见附录二2.2 北京市宏观经济发展基本情况详细内容见附录二2.3 北京市商业发展现状分析我们认为北京市的商业发展有以下主要特征：l 城市商业吸引力巨大，作为国际性的大都市，无论是出于战略发展要求还是对庞大购买力的追逐，北京的商业吸引了国内外诸多商家的进驻，可以说北京的商家数量之多和种类之全在全国都是领先的。l 商业持续快速成长，从商业增长速度来看，近几年，北京市商业的年平均增长速度均在15%左右，这要比同期GDP平均增长速度高出约1/3左右。而从业态发展来看，近几年，以大卖场和超市为代表的先进商业业态在北京得到了年均增速30%以上的高速发展。l 商业重心逐步迁移，伴随着北京的城市化进程与住宅开发，商业发展的重心正在逐步从环三环区域向环四环区域迁移，西、北四环的商业发展已经初现端倪。未来几年，环四环商业经济带将迅速崛起。l 商家战略布点加速，在商业发展的良好形势下，借助2004年年底商业领域全面开放的机会，国内外知名商家纷纷加速在北京的战略布局。三环、四环甚至是部分五环区域商业项目都成了商家竟相角逐的对象。2.3.1影响商业发展的需求因素分析影响一个城市商业发展的主要因素是人口、收入水平、支出水平和消费习惯，其中城市的消费水平除了受消费习惯等其它因素影响外，最主要的是受消费者规模与消费购买能力的影响。本节将分别阐述分析。 巨大且不断增长的人口规模是商业发展的基石截止2003年末，北京市常住人口1456万人，其中户籍人口1148.8万人。外来人口307.2万人，如果加上规模庞大的流动人口，无疑将形成一个巨大的消费市场规模。与此同时，伴随着北京房地产市场的开放和户籍身份的淡化，越来越多的相对富裕人口开始涌入北京置业与就业（北京有的楼盘甚至有超过50%以上的购买者是外地人），这使得北京人口的数字更加庞大。而持续扩张的人口基数也使得北京的消费规模达到一个令商家垂涎的地步，为商家的成功经营奠定基石。领先全国的购买力水平是北京商业真正繁荣的关键近几年，北京市居民的平均购买力水平持续排名全国前四名之内，居民收入水平持续增长。2003年，北京的城镇居民人均可支配收入更是达到13882.9元，生活费支出达11123.8元。同时，居民消费结构变化明显，生存性消费比重下降，享受性和发展性比重上升。住房和购车成为新的消费热点，特别是私家车消费正处于加速阶段，2002年北京市居民私家车保有量约为80万辆，而到2003年年底已经达到104万辆，汽车消费的高速增长带动了相关产业的发展，同时也从根本上扩大了居民的行动半径，进而使其消费习惯得到质的改变。当然，对商家的商业设施的停车设施的建设也提出了新的要求，与本项目特征类似的北京金四季购物广场的火爆原因中，1500辆的免费停车位起了关键作用。消费习惯 一方面消费习惯对现有的商业发展起着指导作用；另一方面，通过正确引导，消费习惯也可以做到逐步调整。消费者的调查结果请见附件，下面将对一些关键性的条件进行分析：n 交通方便因素占据重要地位，交通条件成为居民购物时越来越重视的因素，这一点与北京的住宅区域扩大化及私家车进入家庭普遍化密不可分。同时，停车场在顾客考虑因素中的地位也越发重要，成为影响选择某些类别的消费场所的关键因素。n 交通方式中公共汽车仍占主要地位，但私家车的比例在逐渐提高。这就对商业项目周边的公交系统提出要求，尽可能停靠更多的车次。n 消费产品中餐饮位列三甲，体现出消费层次的高端性。北京居民的休闲娱乐与餐饮方面的消费占到日常总消费的60左右（其中餐饮更是占到了40%左右）。而高收入阶层在休闲娱乐方面的支出占比更高，月收入6001至8000元收入阶层休闲娱乐消费比重最高为40.88%。所以在高收入居民聚集的地方，休闲娱乐餐饮业一般有着更好的发展前景。总之， 北京庞大的人口规模与高端的购买力水平为其奠定了良好的商业发展基础。同时，消费习惯中私家车与餐饮娱乐的重要性也越来越明显。2.3.2 影响商业发展的供给因素分析供应方面，购物中心、大型超市、大型专业店在2004年上半年的供应都有所上升。开业的购物中心，主要分布在木樨园、亚运村、中关村等新兴的商业中心。大型超市和大型专业店方面，外资品牌扩张的势头不减，如家乐福中关村店和双井店、易初莲花朝阳店、百安居九龙店和来广营店在新兴住宅区相继开业。为增强在市场的竞争力而重新包装定位的旧项目，也开始投入市场，比如恒基中心和西单文化广场。跨国零售企业对大型超市、主力店店址的需求仍然强烈，如美国沃尔玛、英国百安居、法国的欧尚和家乐福，都竞相在北京选址开店。此外，很多国外品牌，也相继进入大陆市场和计划扩张其业务。随着政策的逐步放开和北京消费水平的提高，一些国外知名品牌也加快了进入北京市场的步伐，如杰尼亚、克里斯汀迪奥分别落户东方新天地和国贸商城，世界顶级品牌的入驻标志着当地的消费水平的提高，并对其他品牌起带动作用。餐饮和服装方面的品牌店、大卖场式的主力店仍是主要力量。另外，北京商业市场也吸引着外地大型零售商的青睐，对商铺需求构成一支重要力量，如上半年山西华宇集团的华宇时尚购物中心、云南盛兴集团的盛兴购物广场都已正式开业。2.3.3各商业业态的竞争性分析 零售业市场分析l 各大连锁企业集团纷纷把在北京选址开发列为重中之重，开店热潮正在北京各地展开，并且开店位置已经逐渐从城内向四环、五环和郊县扩散。从发展趋势来看，各大零售集团近几年内仍然会把北京作为在中国发展的重点区域，因此可以预计这股开店热潮仍将持续相当长的时间，估计在5年之内还会不断有新店出现。l 便利店的发展启动，预计到2008年北京人均GDP达到6000美元，标准化、连锁化便利店将成为发展较快的业态。目前国际大品牌企业已经纷纷在酝酿进北京发展便利店。l 传统业态中百货地位受到挑战，处于转型期，百货企业发展一部分继续巩固百货市场，另一部分则利用资本集聚的优势向大型综合超市或购物中心转型。l 产品定位和市场定位细分趋势明显，专卖店、专业店得到很大发展，并且将在未来占据重要地位。重视品牌经营，以及采用先进的质量管理系统和配送系统是专业店、专卖店成功的要点。在未来北京零售格局中，专业店、专卖店应占有相当的比重。目前北京在图书、医药、汽车及配件、家用电器、钟表、眼镜等领域都有很快的发展。餐饮娱乐市场分析娱乐业的经营对于餐饮业和零售业具有相当的依附性，其发展特点和餐饮有一定的类似性，本节重点对餐饮市场进行分析。l 餐饮品种的齐全性和地域性特征明显。北京餐馆林立，名店星罗棋布，鲁、京、川、粤、苏、湘、西式等风味佳肴充分满足顾客的不同口味。l 注重文化品位。连锁企业不仅在产品上体现当地的人文特色，同时还提炼并渲染自己的饮食文化。九头鸟、楚天情、红番茄靠的就是楚菜楚文化；渝乡人家、沸腾鱼乡不仅川菜做得精，同时十分注重蜀国情调品位的营造。l 连锁经营形成强势，北京市近几年发展起来的餐饮店铺不少是采取连锁策略。酒楼式店铺连锁规模基本上在15家以下。以连锁经营模式发展的店铺，多数选择重点占领北京市某一特定的区域，围绕这一商圈做足做满。l 旧有餐饮中心削弱，新兴中心发展机遇到来。餐饮业向城市外围扩展，近几年兴起的店铺纷纷向大型新社区或三环及三环以外的地区发展。l 餐厅聚集旺市。北京的多处美食街，基本上是一条街尝遍北京流行的吃食，这些地方营业时间长，昼夜营业很普遍，而且整体质量高，非常红火。2.3.4 商业发展现状总结l 零售业发展迅速：连锁超市开店势头迅猛，国际国内零售巨头纷纷把北京作为近几年开店的重点区域，使近2年北京连锁企业如雨后春笋般四处扎根；专卖店、专业市场得到大力发展，客层区分更加明显，店铺面积增加，商品品类越发齐全。l 餐饮业势头迅猛。近年北京餐饮市场发展迅猛，据不完全统计，北京市餐饮业经营网点为2.9万个，餐饮市场规模巨大。随着现代生活节奏的加快和旅游业的发展，人们外餐的比例大大提高，北京的餐饮业蕴藏着巨大的市场商机。l 娱乐业异军突起。随居民生活水平的提高，娱乐业得到长足发展，出现一批连锁娱乐企业，并且其经营情况良好，正在向高端发展。2.3.5 商业发展预测l 基于对北京商业现状的认识和趋势分析研究，经专家反复论证，我们认为北京商业发展正在逐步形成大企业主导型流通格局的战略发展模式，这一战略模式的确定，对预测北京商业今后几年的发展方向具有重要意义。l 从零售业发展来看，根据业态的不同将走向不同的方向，经营日常用品的超市、便利店等业态其连锁经营的趋势已经非常明显，统一采购，统一管理，同一定价，统一经营的方向已经势不可挡，追求共性是这些业态的共同特征；而专卖店、专业市场、百货店等提供选择性商品则更多向个性化方向发展，将现有客层进行进一步细分，充分满足自己面向客层的需求。l 餐饮娱乐业是讲求个性化消费的行业，随居民收入水平的提高和消费习惯的变化，伴随着北京近几年进入城市建设高峰期，这些行业都将得到更快速发展。2.4 北京市商业地产市场的基本情况据北京市统计局资料显示，2003年底北京市人均商业面积约为0.9平方米，而国外发达国家的平均水平却早已达到1.51.8平方米，上海、大连等城市的人均商业面积也相继超过了1平方米。北京作为高度国际化的大都市，近几年商业地产的发展势头十分迅猛，开发商也非常热衷于开发商业地产。由于不遵循商业规律而盲目开发，商业地产在部分地区已经出现饱和现象，但新出现的项目仍然越来越多。预计在未来几年内，商业地产的盲目开发热潮将会回落。2.4.1 商业地产开发企业发展概况但是北京商铺所显示的空置率和供应规模还是远远小于住宅类、办公类等其他物业的开发量。根据北京市商委的商业发展规划，预计在2005年人均商业面积将达到09平方米（这一目标已经在2003年提前实现），到2010年人均商业面积达到1.0平方米。在最近新批的房地产项目中，有500万平方米左右的商业地产项目，未来的北京商业地产市场仍然火热。蓬勃发展的零售业将令北京商铺市场持续活跃，并将进入一个大浪淘沙的过程，在这个过程中，将有相当数量的企业和项目被市场淘汰或更新。在这一阶段，房地产开发企业在开发商业地产时要格外慎重。2.4.2 商业地产开发供应量概况新增供给分析：2004年6月北京商业营业用房新增供给项目：项目名称项目位置总建筑面积建筑形