国际结算风险与防范.doc

国际结算作为联结国际经济往来的桥梁与纽带，其作用越来越引起人们的重视。因为国际结算涉及多个国家、多个企业，整个结算活动时间较长，导致在实际操作中出现多种多样的影响因素，给结算的顺利进行带来了各种各样的风险。目前，学者们对国际结算风险的研究主要集中在商业银行风险，并形成了一定的风险分析、管理与规避防范理论，但是对国际结算中最重要的进出口企业所面临的风险鲜有研究，仅提出了通用的防范措施。鉴于此本人选择企业国际结算风险作为研究对象，运用多学科综合的研究方法，拓展有关学科的应用领域，分析了企业国际结算风险管理的内容，尝试构建了企业国际结算风险的理论框架和企业国际结算风险的评价体系，定量与定性相结合地分析了企业国际结算风险，提出结算风险的防范措施以规避结算风险，减少企业的风险损失，为企业提高效益、提高资源利用率提供理论与方法参照。本文试图从系统论的视角分析企业国际结算中存在的风险，从经济学、管理学和法学方面剖析结算风险机理，为企业国际结算风险的规避提供理论分析基础。全文总体上分五部分展开论述：（1）国际结算的基本知识。介绍了国际结算的内容、基本特征、基本要素以及国际结算在世界货币转移中所起的巨大作用和未来的发展趋势。（2）企业国际结算风险。在分析企业国际结算风险概念的基础上详细描述了结算风险的表现形式。（3）企业国际结算风险管理。在描述企业国际结算风险管理过程、职能和方法的同时，也分析了价格风险、信用风险和纯粹风险的管理要点，重点论述了企业信用风险控制的关键环节。（4）企业国际结算风险的评价。分析了企业国际结算风险评价的指导原则；通过对资信体系的模糊数学评估和国家风险的测量，列出了在国际结算中应该重视的3大类、8小类风险评价指标；运用人工神经网络、博弈论和对等比较原理对企业国际结算风险进行了论证分析，提出BP算法下的前馈型人工神经网络风险预测模型。同时还对国际结算方式对进出口商的风险程度进行了比较，分析了企业选择国际结算方式的影响因素，并对几种常见的国际结算方式组合特点进行了叙述。（5）实证分析。以天龙企业的进口结算为例，将国际结算的风险管理理论运用到案例分析中，并为企业防范国际结算风险提供实证参照。 People pay more attention to the effect of international settlement because it as a bridge links the international economic trade well. It involves several nations , enterprises and banks in international settlement business , so the time spending in accomplishing the whole business is longer. This leads the emergence of a large variety of influence factors which will bring kinds of risks during the operating. Currently, scholars research of the risk in international settlement is primarily about the risk in commercial bank, and have been formed certain theories about the risk analysis, managements and measures against risks. Nevertheless, they neglect the importance of international settlement risk in enterprises including imports and exports, just advanced some normal measures when they study the particular way in international settlement like L/C. Owing to this, I choice international settlement risk in business enterprises as the research object, using synthetic theories and some interlinked subjects, try to analyze the contents of international settlement risk management in enterprises and set up a theories frame and the evaluating system. In order to against the risk, reducing the cost that cost by the risk, from the perspective of quantitative and qualitative analysis angle, the paper analyses the theory of international settlement risk in enterprises and produces some measures. Hope the paper can enhance the benefit and utilizing rate of the social resource by provided a theory and a useful method. This paper tries to analyze the risk and the theories in the enterprises activities of international settlement to provide a basic reason of measures against international settlement risk from systematic reasons and knowledge in economics, managements and the laws. On the whole, this paper includes 5 parts: (1) Basic knowledge about international settlement. This part introduces the contents, characters, factors in international settlement, also explains the large actions and tendency developments in the future during the devolution of international currency. (2) International settlement risk in enterprises. This part minute shows the different forms of settlement risk base on the describe about basic concepts of international settlement risk of enterprises. (3) International settlement risk managements in enterprises. This parts description about international settlement risk in enterprises is on the process, the functions, and methods of risk management. It also analyzes the management emphasizes of price risk, credit risk and pure risk, mainly discusses the key points about controlling the credit risk in enterprises. (4) Evaluation of international settlement risk in enterprises. This part first analyzes the principles about the evaluation of international settlement risk. Second, it values the credit system about the companies in the commercial trade by methods of fuzzy mathematics and measures the nations risk. It also cites evaluation indexes from 3 main fact, 8 subaltern factors which should be attended in actives of international settlement. Third, it analyzes the international settlement risk through ANN, game theory and reciprocity comparative principle, and brings forward the forecast model of the BP neural network. Last, this part compares the risk extent about the sort of international settlement in imports and exports, analyzes the effect factors about why enterprises choose this certain sort of international settlement, and describes the traits about several combines of ways of international settlement used usually in enterprises doing foreign trades. (5) An empiric analysis. This part takes Tianlo