外文翻译--乘用车变速器市场分析与预测

附 录 Market Analysis and Forecast of Light Vehicle Transmission 1 Global transmission market status The current global vehicle production increases at an average annual rate of 3.5% per year and is expected to at least 89 million at 2015. With the increase in light vehicle production, manual transmission and planetary gear automatic transmission is also expected to yield increases, but they will be occupied a part of the CVT market share by the AMT. Compared with planetary gear transmission, AMT and th e CVT automatic transmission can not only improve the transmission efficiency and decrease production costs, but also can quickly improve the shift quality； so it is expected that AMT will be higher growth rates. CVT applications will be limited to small vehicles, but if the ring IVT technology in practical applications become more mature, reliable and gain market acceptance, it can achieve strong growth momentum. 2 Transmission Market Analysis and Forecast 2.1 manual transmission (MT) Over the years, Western Europe focus on studying driving control, manufacturing costs and fuel economy and other issues, becoming the largest market for manual transmissions, but it is expected that in the next 5 years, the market position of the manual transmission will eventually be replaced by Eastern Europe and Asia. However, in whole Europe, the proportion of manual transmission has been on the decline, especially when the AMT gains more market share and the automatic transmission is applied the small car market and manual transmission in the European new car market share is expected to decrease from 2005 In about 80% to 70% in 2010, about 55% by 2015. At Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), manual transmission market share is expected to decrease from 87% in 2005 down to 85% in 2010 and drop to 83% in 2015. However, automatic transmission and CVT are very popular in Japan, and manual transmission will lose market share gradually, expecting to decline from the current 22% to 13% in 2010. In North America, the manual transmission market share is expected to continue to decline, from 13% in 2005 down to 11% in 2010, and by 2015 only 10% of the market. In China, India, Pacific Rim and South America, 5-speed manual transmission is expected to continue to occupy most of the market share. Overall, as a slight increase in global automotive production, the global market share of the manual transmission is expected to decline. 2.2 Automatic Transmission (AT) Over the years, the North American car owners are more like driving a car with automatic transmission, and this preference will still continue, despite the recent tend that buying a vehicle with better fuel economy may affect the automatic transmission market, resulting market share falling. Planetary gear automatic transmission will account for 85% of the market share in 2010, 87% in 2005 but2015 will drop to 83%. In 2010, 5-speed automatic transmission will account for 77% of total transmission, while the market share of 6-speed transmission will increase, especially the large torque 6-speed transmission. 6-speed automatic transmission is expected to account for 15% 20%of the total output of automatic transmission, 50% by 2010. In 2015. 4-speed automatic transmission is expected to disappear from new product by 2010. Due to CVT quickly capture the market, especially in Japan account for a large proportion of small and micro-car segment, automatic transmission has been Japans dominant position in the market for many years. Automatic transmission market share is expected to decrease from 60% in 2005 to 50% in 2010, down to 45% in 2015. New car market has grown rapidly in the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), automatic transmission is expected to increase from 15% in 2005 to 18% in 2010, 22% in 2015. In Europe, the automatic transmission market will be eroded by DCT, from 17% in 2005 down to 16% in 2015 to 14% by 2015. In the March 2007 survey found that 15% of the next European automatic transmission owners planed to buy a car assembled DCT select models, and more than 40% report showed that they would consider models with AMT. According to analysis, the global vehicle production assembled automatic transmission will soon exceed manual transmission car, but a part of the total amount of the automatic transmission increase in the proportion due to AMT. With the growth of AMT and the CVT, the traditional planetary automatic transmission is expected to be only slightly higher than the 29 million units in 2005, while in 2010 it will surpass 3000 million and in 2015 achieve 33 million units. 2.3 Continuously variable transmission (CVT) CVT in Japan has been in a dominant market position, its market share is expected to continue to grow from about 20% in 2005 to 38% in 2010. In other markets, CVT will only get a certain degree of market acceptance. CVT may be expected to achieve 5% market share in Europe by 2010, but the possibility of achieving that is even smaller than the market in North America. While CVT can transmit high torque, but manufacturing CVT need special alloy steel and require special high-precision machining, making the manufacturing cost relatively expensive, much higher than the manual transmission with considerable power. CVT size is also an assembly problem, in Europe because its lower torque transmission capability has limited consumer acceptance. In North America, full of large displacement vehicles, the CVT significantly reduced market penetration, and only to such as the Honda Civic Hybrid and other automotive facilities. Although acceptance is limited in the two larger markets, the global production of CVT is expected to increase about 60%, from 250 million units in 2005 to 400 million units in 2010 and in 2015 almost 600 million units. It will be driven by fast-growing small car market in developing countries, markets in developed countries shifting to better fuel economy small cars and hybrid technology. 2.4 The automatic mechanical transmission (AMT) AMT market share is expected to be significant growth in the coming years, especially with the improvement of the quality shift in the traditional automatic transmission, leading to the luxury car market more attractive. One advantage of AMT is the hydraulic to electric drive to get better transmission efficiency and transmission efficiency of AMT in a way beyond the manual gearbox, because the driver is unlikely to be more than a computer to optimize shift to Improve fuel economy. Because European prefers the manual transmission traditionally, and focus on driver control and the study of fuel economy, the growth rate of AMT in Europe will be the highest, where the market share is expected to increase from only 1% in 2005 to 15% in 2010 and to 29% by 2015. Survey found that 15% of the purchaser and carrying automatic transmission European car owners plan to buy a car with DCT next time, more than 40% of car owners would consider buying a car with AMT. The market share of DCT will reach 29% by 2015 in Europe, but analysts predict the share is only 10%. In the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan, market share of AMT is expected to reach 7% in 2010, rising to 13% by 2015. It is predicted that market share of AMT in Japan is very low, no more than 2% in 2010. Automatic transmissions in North America are expected to continue to maintain the leading position, the market sh are of AMT rise from 0 in 2005 to 4% in 2010 and 7% by 2015. Global production of AMT is expected to surpass 5.5 million units in 2010 and reach about 1,200 million units in 2015. 乘用车变速器市场分析与预测 1 全球变速器市场现状 目前全球汽车产量平均以每年 3.5的速度递增，预计至 2015 年全球轻型汽车产量将至少达到 8900万辆。随着轻型汽车的产量增加，手动变速器和行星齿轮自动变速器的产量预计也将随之增加，但都将会被 AMT和 CVT侵占一部分市场份额。 AMT 和 CVT与行星齿轮自动变速器相比，不仅提高了传动效率而且制造成本不高，而且能快速提高换挡质量；所以预计 AMT将获得较高的增长率。 CVT的应用将局限于小型车辆上，但如果环形 IVT 技术在实际应用中越来越成熟可靠并取得市场认可，则可以取得强劲的增长势头。 2 变速器市场分析与预测 2.1 手动变速器（ MT） 多年来，西欧关注于研究驾驶控制、制造成本和燃油经济性等问题，现在已成为手 动变速器的最大市场，但预计在未来 5年内手动变速器的最大市场位置最终将被东欧和亚洲替代。然而在整个欧洲，手动变速器所占的比例却一直在下降，特别是受 AMT获得更多的市场份额和自动变速器打入小型车市场的影响，预计手动变速器在欧洲新车的市场份额将从 2005年约 80降到 2010年的 70左右，到 2015年约为 55。在亚太地区（不包括日本），手动变速器的市场份额预计将从 2005年的87下降到 2010年的 85，到 2015年下降到 83。而在日本，自动变速器和 CVT 很受欢迎，手动变速器将失去市场份额，预计从目前的 22下降到 2010年的 13。在北美，手动变速器的市场份额预计将继续下降，从 2005年的 13降到 2010年的 11，到 2015年时仅占市场的 10。而在我国、印度、太平洋沿岸地区和南美洲，预计 5 速手动变速器将继续占有绝大部分市场份额。总体而言，随着全球汽车总产量略有增加，手动变速器的全球市场份额预计将持续下降。 2.2 自动变速器（ AT） 多年来，北美车主都更喜欢驾驶装有自动变速器的汽车，这种偏好将仍然继续，尽管近期趋于购买燃油经济性更好车辆的可能会影响到自动变速器市场，导致市场份额下降 1。行星齿 轮自动变速器在 2010年仍将占据 85的市场份额，而 2005年为 87，到 2015年将下降到 83。 2010年，预计 5速自动变速器将占变速器总产量的 77，而 6速变速器市场份额将增加，尤其是大转矩 6速变速器。预计 6速自动变速器到 2010年将占自动变速器总产量的 15 20， 2015年为 50。预计 4速自动变速器到 2010年将从新车产品中消失。 多年来日本的自动变速器也一直处于市场的主导地位，由于 CVT迅速占领市场特别是在日本占有很大比例的小型和微型汽车细分市场 2。预计自动变速器市场份额将从 2005年的 60下降到2010年的 50，到 2015年为 45。在新车市场增长很快的亚太地区（除日本），预计自动变速器将从 2005年的 15上升到 2010年的 18， 2015年达到 22。在欧洲， 自动变速器市场将被 DCT蚕食，从 2005年的 17下降到 2015年的 16，到 2015年为 14。在 2007年 3月调查中发现， 15的欧洲自动变速器车主计划下次购买汽车选择装配 DCT的车型，有超过 40的报告说他们将考虑装有AMT的车型。分析认为，全球汽车产量中装载自动变速器的汽车将很快超过装载手动变速器的汽车，但在自动变 速器的总量中有部分是由 AMT所占比例上升引起的。随着 AMT和 CVT的增长，预计传统行星齿轮自动变速器的产量将仅略高于 2005年的 2900万台， 2010年将超过 3 000万台并在2015年达到 3300万台。 2.3 连续可变变速器（ CVT