政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响.ppt

1、 ,1,Regulatory Issues and Chinas Auto Market 政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响 Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.D China Business Update China Automotive Review 中国汽车要闻 邢文军, ,2,The Auto Market Today 中国的汽车市场 Future Trend Fiat: 菲亚特 Nanjing Hyundai-Kia: 现代-起亚 BAIC, Dongfeng, GAIC Suzuki: 铃木 Changan, Changhe; Mitsubishi: 三菱 Southeast Isu

2、zu: 五十铃 Qingling;, ,16,3？: FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC “三大？” BAIC: 北汽 DaimlerChrysler, Hyundai, Mitsubishi GAIC: 广汽 Honda, Toyota, Dongfeng-Nissan Passenger Changan Group: 长安 Ford, Suzuki Hafei/Changhe: 哈飞/昌河 Aviation Industry Group Jianghuai Auto Group 江淮 Nanjing: 南汽 Fiat, MG Rover Southeast (Fujian)：东南 Mi

3、tsubishi, China Motors Brilliance: 华晨 BMW Qingling Motor Group：庆铃 Isuzu, ,17,3？Domestic Investment 国内投资 Chery: 奇瑞 R&D Center, Engine Plant, Export/JV Geely: 吉利 R&D Center, Engine plant, Export/JV BYD (Qinchuan): 比亚迪 HK$254 million/74% shares Great Wall: 长城 100,000 units car assembly plant Jianghuai:

4、 江淮 light commercial, MPV, car Lifan: 力帆 1.6L car Zhongxing: 中兴 SUVs and pickups Gonow Auto: 吉奥 SUVs and pickups Loncin: 隆鑫 300 million, bus/suv, ,18,Reality and Definition 如何定义 Sedan 轿车 Automobile 汽车 Motor vehicle 机动车 Consumers 消费者 Family car 家庭轿车 Price: 价格 100,000, 80,000, 40,000, 30,000 Sedan vs

5、hatchback 三箱, 两箱 (Citron ZX, Xiali), ,19,Summary 结论: Eexisting and potential large market 现实和潜在大市场 Institutional and commercial 公、商务车市场 Consumer market: 消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车 Motorcycles, farm vehicles, mini-vehicles (not 100%) Sedans 轿车 Transition from a centralized to a market system 计划经济向市场经济过渡, ,20,F

6、uture Trend and Drivers 未来市场的走向和影响因素, ,21,Interaction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈 Government, World Market, Domestic Market 政府、国际和国内市场 Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精简政府机构 Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制 WTO Impact 世贸组织 The Rise of a Consumer Market 消费者市场的兴起, ,22,Declining Administrative C

7、ontrol 行政干预逐渐弱化 Ministry of Machinery Industry 机械部 State Administration of Machinery Industry 机械局 China National Automotive Industry Corp. 中汽总 State Economic and Trade Commission 经贸委 Federation of Machinery Industry 机械工业联合会 CAAM/SAE 中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会, ,23,Emphasis on the Rule of Law 法制增强 Type/Produc

8、t Approval 认证 Safety: compulsory tests, frontal collision 安全碰撞法规 Emission Control: Euro III & II 排放 Consumption Tax 消费税 Consumer Protection: Recall 消费者保护 Fuel consumption level:然油消耗限制, ,24,Administrative Control 行政干预依然存在 Auto Industry Development Policy 产业政策（2004） Market entry 市场准入 50:50 Equity Shar

9、e JV for OEMs 股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制, ,25,Different departmental priorities (部门交叉管理） SDRC:发改委 Circular (investment threshold) State Assets Commission 国资委 Large State-owned companies MOFCOM:商务部 Investment, Sales, Export Quality Inspection，Supervision & Quarantine: 质监局 Adminis

10、tration of Taxation: 税务局 Taxation Industry and Commerce: 工商局 Business License Public Security: 公安局 Vehicle License & Registration Communications: 交通部 Maintenance & Repair Ministry of Science &Technology: 科技部, ,26,Market vs. Central Planning 市场和计划经济 State Council DRC 国务院发展研究中心 Government Should Not I

11、nterfere 政府不宜干预 Equal Access and Fair Competition 公平竞争, ,27,Driven by Market Forces 市场的作用越来越大 Automobile: means of production vs consumer good 汽车：生产资料还是消费品 Public/Institutional to Private Ownership 公有到私有 Economic Growth & Rising Living Standards 经济发展和生活水平, ,28,Overall Economic Growth 经济持续增长 Average

12、GDP growth 7-8% GDP增幅 Active fiscal policy 积极的财政 Average annual growth in output 10-15% 汽车年产量均增 15 左右, ,29,International Players 跨国公司 Multinational Presence 跨国主机厂和供应商 Government Relations and Lobbying 政府公关 Vehicles for Government Consumption 政府采购 Emissions, Safety, Technology 安全、排放、技术, ,30,WTO Acces

13、sion 世贸组织 Tariff down to 25%/10% in 2006 关税减削减 Quota eliminated 配额许可证取消 Localization requirement 取消国产化率 Global sourcing 全球采购 Equity investment limit 放宽投资额度限制 Consumer expectations: Price reduction 降价, ,31,Domestic Market Forces 国内市场变化 Local Investment 地方政府投资 Private Investment 民营投资 Chery, Geely, Bri

14、lliance, BYD, Lifan, GW Market Entry Open, with restrictions 准入并未封闭 Merger & Acquisitions 兼并重组，借壳生产 Buying into the Big Three? 民营参股三大?, ,32,Corporate Decision Making 企业面临新决策 Protective vs. Competitive Advantage 保护还是竞争优势 Advanced Management vs. Efficiency 先进管理和效率 State-ownership & Labor Cost Advantag

15、e 国有和劳动力成本 Low-Cost Management 低成本管理 Product Development: Institutional/Consumer 新产品开发对象, ,33,Market Share of Carmakers, 2004-2006 (%) 市场份额 Make/Model 2001 20042005Jan-Mar. 06 Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8 Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.910.4 9.3 FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8 Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0 Chery Aut

16、omobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9 Geely 2.9 4.5 5.2 6.1 Tianjin-FAW-Toyota N/A 3.4 4.7 6.0 Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8 Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7 Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6 Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.0, ,34,The Road of Electronic Appliances and Motorcycles 家电和摩托车 Motorcycle Market shares:19972

17、005 摩托车市场份额 SOEs + JVs （国有和合资企业）: 90% 40%, ,35,Recent Policies & Regulations 近期的相关政策和法规, ,36,Auto Industry Development Policy（2004） 产业政策 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 整车股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制 JV initiated M&As 合资企业兼并重组国企 Separation of production & Sales: Mazda 3 生产和销售分离 Ent

18、rance barrier 准入 Support of “large auto groups” 支持“大集团”, ,37,Import Tariff 进口关税 Quota and license eliminated 许可和配额取消 Whole vehicles: 25% July 1, 2006 整车25 Parts & components: 10% July 1, 2006 零部件10 Impact: high-end, luxury cars as imports 豪华车 Targeting the newly rich 新富 Local production unlikely 不会地

19、产, ,38,CBU Characteristics 整车特征 (April 1, 2005) Import Administration of Automotive Parts and Components Having Characteristics of CBUs 60% or higher in value: 25 tariff, July 1, 2006 超过整车价值60，按整车征税 EU, US, Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico: “Violation of WTO rules on localization” 违背WTO地产规则 China：”C

20、ounter import tariff evasion” “打击逃避关税” Likely solution 解决办法, ,39,Exterior ID Marks 汽车外部标识 Administrative Methods on Exterior ID Marks of Automobile Products, February 2006 今年二月实施 Government: Made in China 政府规范市场 Corporate: Sales 企业销售 Consumer: Foreign vs. local brands 消费者心理, ,40,Consumption Tax, Apr

21、il 1, 2006 消费税 (%) Sedan/MPV SUV Engine NewOldChangeEngineNewOld Change 1.0L-=1.5L 3 5-21.0L-=1.5L 3 3 0 1.5L-=2.0L 5 5 01.5L-=2.0L 5 3 2 2.0L-=2.2L 9 5 42.0L-=2.2L 9 3 6 2.2L-=2.5L 9 8 12.2L-=2.5L 9 3 6 2.5L-=3.0L 12 8 42.5L-=3.0L12 5 7 3.0L-=4.0L 15 8 73.0L-=4.0L15 510 4.0L 20 8124.0L20 515,Impact

22、: 影响, ,41,Farm vehicles part of automobiles 农用车变为汽车的一部分 The Notice on Standardizing the Administration of Three-Wheel Automobiles and Low-Speed Trucks, June 1, 2006 三轮汽车、低速卡车 VIN：January 1, 2007 汽车识别代号 WMI: 世界制造识别 a) minimum output 3,000/500 最低年产量 b) certification 生产许可 Application deadline: December 31, 2006 申请截至, ,42, ,43,Independent Innovation and Brands 自主创新和自主品牌 National strategy 国家战略决策 From low-cost to technology advantage 低成本优势到技术创新优势 Ministry of Science & Technology 科技部主导 Comments from top leaders 领导人关注 Fair competition and support local brands 为自主品牌创造公平竞争环境, ,