第三讲 劳动市场与AD-AS模型.ppt

1、第三讲 劳动市场与AD-AS模型,短期分析 凯恩斯定理 总需求视角 没有涉及价格的变动,IS-LM 模型的局限,对总需求增加的中期反应,Higher production requires an increase in employment Higher employment reduces unemployment Lower unemployment puts pressure on wages Higher wages increase production costs and therefore prices Higher prices lead workers to ask for

2、higher wages. Prices and wages (the labor market) adjust over the medium run and influence output,1. 劳动市场基本概念,第一章 劳动市场,失业,国际劳工组织的定义 凡在一定年龄范围内愿意工作且有能力工作而没有工作，并正在寻找工作的人都是失业者。 美国劳工统计局定义 眼下没有工作，正在等待重新被雇佣或者在最近4周里主动地寻找工作的人。美国劳工统计局按月随机抽样来收集，每月大约6万个家庭被访问，询问他们最近的工作情况，调查将16岁以上的成年人分成三类： （1）就业者 （2）失业者 （3）不计入劳动力

3、的所有人：成年人中上学的人、军人、退休在家的、生病不能工作的、干脆不想找工作的。,Current Population Survey Every month, the U.S. Census Bureau surveys 50,000 households to establish the sex, age, and job market status of each member of the household. Working-age population （ Civilian Non-institutional Pop.） Total number of people aged 16

4、years and over who are not in a jail, hospital, or some other form of institutional care. The working-age population is divided into those in the labor force and those not in the labor force. Labor force The number of people employed plus the number unemployed.,失业率：The percentage of people in the la

5、bor force who are unemployed.,两个主要指标,参与率：,A Tour of the Labor Market,U.S. Population 1998270.2 million Minus: Pop. under 16,-65.0 million Armed forces and Incarcerated Civilian Noninstitutional Pop.205.2 million Civilian Labor Force137.6 million Employed131.4 million Unemployed 6.2 million Out of th

6、e Labor Force 67.6 million,The participation rate=,The unemployment rate =,Movements in Unemployment,Small upward trend in the unemployment rate,Observation:,1950s4.5 1960s4.7 1970s6.2 1980s7.3 1990s5.9,Cyclical unemployment ：The fluctuating unemployment over the business cycle that increases during

7、 a recession and decreases during an expansion. Frictional unemployment： The unemployment that arises from normal labor turnoverfrom people entering and leaving the labor force and from the ongoing creation and destruction of jobs. Structural unemployment is the portion of unemployment that is due t

8、o changes in the structure of the economy that result in a significant loss of jobs in certain industries. It arises when changes in technology or international competition change the skills needed to perform jobs or change the locations of jobs.,2. 失业的类型,按照凯恩斯的理论，失业一般分为三种：,摩擦失业：是指在生产过程中由于难以避免的摩擦造成的

9、短期、局部性失业。 Frictional and Structural 自愿失业：是指工人不愿意接受现行工资水平的失业。 Frictional 非自愿失业：是指愿意接受现行工资但仍找不到工作的失业。 Cyclical,Full employment When there is no cyclical unemployment or, equivalently, when all the unemployment is frictional or structural. Natural unemployment rate The unemployment rate at full employm

10、ent.,3. 古典的劳动市场理论,According to classical economists, the quantity of labor demanded and supplied are brought into equilibrium by rising and falling wage rates. There should be no persistent unemployment above the frictional and structural amount. The classical idea that wages adjust to clear the lab

11、or market is consistent with the view that wages respond quickly to price changes.,The labor demand curve illustrates the amount of labor that firms want to employ at each given wage rate.,The labor supply curve illustrates the amount of labor that households want to supply at each given wage rate.,

12、If labor demand decreases, the equilibrium wage will fall. Anyone who wants a job at W1 will have one. There is always full employment in this sense.,Classical economists believe that the labor market always clears.,If wages “stick” at W0 rather than fall to the new equilibrium wage of W* following

13、a shift of demand, the result will be unemployment equal toL0 L1.,古典理论无法解释非自愿失业,4、工资的决定,1. Two Observations:,2. Theories of Wage Determination,Bargaining power Efficiency wages,Workers wages typically exceed their reservation wage Wages depend on labor-market conditions, the lower the u, the higher

14、are wages,Bargaining power depends on:,Efficiency Wages:,Firms themselves may want to pay more than the reservation wage. Because wages above the reservation wage may increase productivity and reduce theturnover rate.,3. Wage determination:,W = Wage （总名义工资） Pe = Expected price level u = The unemploy

15、ment rate z = Other variables that affect the wage setting,The expected price level, Pe therefore, investment must be higher than before deficit reductionhigher by an amount exactly equal to the decrease in G. In the medium run, budget deficit reduction leads to a decrease in the interest rate and a

16、n increase in investment.,6. Changes in the Price of Oil,The Price of Crude Petroleum, 1960-2001,There was two sharp increases in the relative price of oil in the 1970s, followed by a decrease in the 1980s and the 1990s.,Effects on the NaturalRate of Unemployment,The higher price of oil causes an in

17、crease in the markup and a downward shift of the price-setting line.,The Effects of an Increase in the Price of Oil on the Natural Rate of Unemployment,The Dynamics of Adjustment,An increase in the markup, , caused by an increase in the price of oil, results in an increase in the price level, at any

18、 level of output, Y. The aggregate supply curve shifts up.,The Dynamics of Adjustment,After the increase in the price of oil, the new AS curve goes through point B, where output equals the new lower natural level of output, Yn, and the price level equals Pe. The economy moves along the AD curve, fro

19、m A to A. Output decreases from Yn to Y.,The Dynamics of Adjustment,Over time, the economy moves along the AD curve, from A to A”. At point A”, the economy has reached the new lower natural level of output, Yn, and the price level is higher than before the oil shock.,The Dynamics of Adjustment,An increase in the price of oil leads, in the short run, to a decrease in output and an increase in the price level. Over time, output decreases further and