2023年 关注Chat-GPT竞品和Tesla投资者日

免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。1关注ChatGPT竞品和Tesla投资者日华泰研究英伟达AI全面云化，OpenAIAGI计划强调可控性与公平性上周，英伟达宣布将NVIDIAAI（包括DGX等AI超算、平台软件层和预训练模型）作为云服务提供，我们认为AI云服务能降低部署成本和使用门槛，加速AI应用。百度计划在所有业务中集成对话式AI产品文心一言，并通过百度智能云开放生成式LLM。OpenAI发布AGI计划，强调大模型的可控性与公平性。科技巨头大模型军备竞赛持续，Meta发布LLaMA，对非商用研究用例开源。LLaMA-13B在多数基准测试下超越GPT-3（175BLLaMA-65B与目前最好的LLM中的Chinchilla-70B和PaLM-540B旗鼓相当，显示出提升数据量对模型效果的提升作用。华泰观点：关注美国通胀数据超预期和特斯拉投资者日周五，美国1月核心PCE环比涨0.6%，同比涨4.7%，高于彭博一致预期（QoQ:0.4%;YoY:4.3%引发市场对通胀和继续加息的担忧，纳指跌3.3%，标普500跌2.7%。上证指数(+1.3%)在连续三周下跌后实现了增长，SW电子涨0.3%。个股方面，特斯拉FSD新方案催化毫米波雷达概念，上周经纬恒润涨10.9%。英伟达（+8.9%）FY4Q23营收60.5亿美元，超过彭博一致预期的60亿美元。本周理想（2/27）、蔚来（3/1）公布业绩。特斯拉投资者日（3/1）将举办，我们建议关注1）HW4.0的芯片算力；2）摄像头像素以及颗数升级；3）自研4D毫米波雷达或将重新上车。A股：SW电子上涨0.3%，跑输上证指数（+1.3%）上周全部A股日均成交额合计8,388亿元，环比下跌15.3%。电子板块涨幅居前企业包括：通富微电（+14.8%）、经纬恒润-W（+10.9%）、寒武纪-U（+9.9%跌幅居前企业包括：恒玄科技（-6.1%）、澜起科技（-4.5%）、传音控股（-3.9%）。北向资金上周合计净流出41亿元，主要增持澜起科技、三环集团、顺络电子，减持斯达半导、北方华创、长电科技。TMT其它板块，SW通信涨2.9%，SW计算机涨1.9%，SW传媒跌1.0%。港股：恒生科技指数下跌5.8%，跑输恒生指数（-3.4%）上周全部港股日均成交额合计839亿港元，环比上涨3.8%。恒生科技主要成分股中涨幅居前的企业包括：众安在线（+4.9%）、联想集团（+4.4%）、万国数据（-10.0%）。传媒互联网板块，腾讯跌6.5%，美团跌6.8%，百度跌7.0%，阿里巴巴跌9.5%，快手跌11.8%。南向资金上周合计净流入45亿元，主要增持中国移动、中国联通、中国电信，减持腾讯控股、比亚迪股份、美团-W。海外：纳斯达克中概股下跌6.7%，纳指下跌3.3%，标普500下跌2.7%上周纳斯达克中概股跌6.7%，纳指跌3.3%，标普500跌2.7%，费城半导体指数跌2.4%。十年期美债利率上升13bp至3.95%。半导体板块涨幅居前为英伟达（+8.9%）、东京电子（+3.4%跌幅较大的为英特尔（-8.9%）、恩智浦（-6.2%）、阿斯麦（-5.1%）。互联网板块：Meta跌1.4%，亚马逊跌3.8%，谷歌跌5.5%，SEA跌7.7%。美股汽车板块：理想跌3.4%，特斯拉跌5.5%，蔚来跌8.7%，小鹏跌11.9%。上周比特币跌5.9%。风险提示：海外疫情升级风险，宏观下行风险，创新品渗透不及预期风险。本研报中涉及到未上市公司或未覆盖个股内容，均系对其客观公开信息的整理，并不代表本研究团队对该公司、该股票的推荐或覆盖。研究员SACNo.S0570521050001SFCNo.AUZ066研究员SACNo.S0570521070004SFCNo.BPH392研究员SACNo.S0570522120003研究员SACNo.S0570522020001研究员SACNo.S0570522070002联系人SACNo.S0570121090024SFCNo.BSF274联系人SACNo.S0570121040041SFCNo.BOB674联系人SACNo.S0570121070191SFCNo.BRH099leping.huang@+(852)36586000chenxudong@+(86)2128972228+(86)2128972228zhanghaoyi@+(86)2128972228liuyi020747@+(86)2128972228zhangyu@+(86)1063211166huyuzhou@+(852)36586000andrewhuang@+(852)36586000行业走势图电子沪深300(%)(9)(17)(26)(34)Feb-22Jun-22Oct-22Feb-23资料来源：Wind，华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。2(%)(X)纳斯达克100前向PE10年美债收益率（右轴）S&P500前向(%)(X)纳斯达克100前向PE10年美债收益率（右轴）454035454035302520504.03.53.02.52.00.50.02012/112012/112013/022013/052013/082013/112014/022014/052014/082014/112015/022015/052015/082015/112016/022016/052016/082016/112017/022017/052017/082017/112018/022018/052018/082018/112019/022019/052019/082019/112020/022020/052020/082020/112021/022021/052021/082021/112022/022022/052022/082022/112023/02资料来源：Bloomberg，华泰研究90807060504030202021/0302021/03CNNFear&GreedIndexCBOEVolatilityIndex（右轴）2021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/02052025303540注：指数往上反映投资者对市场越乐观（越贪婪），往下反映投资者对市场越悲观（越恐慌）资料来源：CNN，CBOE，Wind，华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。333,00031,00029,00027,00025,00023,00021,00019,00017,00015,000恒生指数沽空比例（右轴）Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22JuFeb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-2330%25%20%15%10%5%注：做空比例=全日卖出金额/（市场成交额-Warrant和CBBC金额）资料来源：Wind，华泰研究18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000A股成交额万得全A（右轴）6,5006,0005,5005,0004,5002021-01-042021-02-032021-03-052021-04-042021-05-042021-06-032021-07-032021-08-022021-09-012021-10-012021-10-312021-11-302021-12-302022-01-292022-02-282021-01-042021-02-032021-03-052021-04-042021-05-042021-06-032021-07-032021-08-022021-09-012021-10-012021-10-312021-11-302021-12-302022-01-292022-02-282022-03-302022-04-292022-05-292022-06-282022-07-282022-08-272022-09-262022-10-262022-11-252022-12-252023-01-242023-02-23资料来源：Wind，华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。4代码公司名称财报货币市值（人民币亿收盘价（元交易货币）P/E2022E2023EP/S2022E2023E股价变动1W1MYTD北向/南向资金流入（亿人民币/亿港元）南向/北向资金持股市值（亿人民币/亿港元）南向/北向资金持股比例（%）半导体002156CH通富微电CNY35823.752.330.51.81.4.8%29.3%43.7%-4.38.83.2688256CH寒武纪-UCNY35287.9-31.5-49.441.229.19%41.6%61.2%n.a.n.a.0.0688041CH海光信息CNY1,20952.0N.A.80.7N.A.15.64%21.0%29.7%n.a.n.a.0.0688521CH芯原股份-UCNY30962.1N.A.224.9N.A.9.06%12.9%40.9%n.a.n.a.0.0600584CH长电科技CNY50328.315.313.81.51.30%5.9%22.6%-2.219.34.0688082CH盛美上海CNY37486.362.850.013.59.86%0.8%8.1%n.a.n.a.0.00522HKASMPTHKD24868.510.112.81.51.63%6.0%23.0%0.02.71.0688012CH中微公司CNY659107.057.945.314.310.70%2.0%9.1%-1.422.03.4300327CH中颖电子CNY13840.335.130.98.16.60%-4.4%14.0%-0.35.84.3002185CH华天科技CNY3049.529.626.62.42.15%6.5%14.6%-1.26.12.0301269CH华大九天CNY52997.4283.4206.965.848.95%5.5%8.2%n.a.n.a.0.0688099CH晶晨股份CNY34784.037.227.65.74.44%8.2%19.1%-0.24.71.4688018CH乐鑫科技CNY89110.756.736.46.24.82%2.7%22.8%n.a.n.a.0.01347HK华虹半导体USD35430.8N.A.12.3N.A.2.08%2.0%13.0%-0.653.313.3688072CH拓荆科技-UCNY331262.0107.076.721.113.87%11.5%20.9%n.a.n.a.0.0688981CH中芯国际USD1,68642.027.338.76.76.54%0.3%2.0%-0.21.70.2600703CH三安光电CNY96419.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