《基于CHFS数据的我国家庭债务对居民健康水平的影响实证研究》22000字

第表6的回归结果来看，回归（2）的lhousedebt与回归（1）的ldebt相比，显著性水平和回归系数符号均未变化；回归（4）的over_indebt1与回归（3）的over_indebt相比，over_indebt1的回归系数仍为负的，但系数绝对值减少为0.001，显著性水平也下降了，变为不显著。总的来看，核心解释变量稳健性检验的结果证明研究结果整体上是可靠的。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC6核心解释变量的稳健性检验(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)lhousedebt-0.004***(-3.885)over_indebt-0.009**(-2.219)over_indebt1-0.001(-1.537)lincome0.008***0.009***0.007***0.009***(3.683)(4.035)(3.559)(3.127)edu0.018***0.021***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.524)(3.128)(3.019)hukou-0.007-0.006-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.607)(-0.726)(-0.731)marriage-0.008-0.011-0.007-0.010(-0.475)(-0.632)(-0.452)(-0.605)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.013(-1.224)(-1.156)(-1.255)(-1.113)unemployment-0.045***-0.047***-0.044***-0.045***(-4.726)(-4.642)(-4.676)(-4.647)gender-0.015-0.017-0.015-0.019(-1.148)(-1.268)(-1.152)(-1.405)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-2.778)(-3.347)(-3.356)familysize0.011*0.013**0.0100.009(1.756)(1.980)(1.595)(1.507)happiness0.674***0.665***0.674***0.673***(187.212)(170.056)(187.213)(185.692)rural0.105***0.112***0.104***0.101***(2.860)(2.895)(2.837)(2.739)house-0.005-0.011*-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.953)(-1.110)(-1.061)lconsump0.014***0.011**0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.091)(2.347)(2.315)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.355)(-1.229)(-1.129)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.013***(-12.848)(-11.340)(-12.891)(-12.691)Constant0.830***0.809***0.843***0.833***(10.628)(9.597)(10.770)(10.284)Observations36,57832,78736,57636,190R-squared0.7830.7760.7830.782Numberofhhid13,58813,40413,58813,567Ftest0000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1过度负债的“倒U型拐点”讨论在基准回归中已经讨论了过度负债对健康的影响，为了分析过度负债程度对居民健康水平的影响差异，以及是否存在拐点使其影响方向发生变化，本文在基准回归的基础上加入了平方项over_indebt_2，结果展示于REF_Ref85416888\h表7中。相较于基准回归，加入over_indebt_2后的回归表明，过度负债的平方项对健康有着显著性水平为5%的改善作用。负债资产比系数为负，平方项的系数为正且均显著，说明随着家庭负债资产比的增加，自评健康得分较高，居民健康水平上升；但是，当家庭负债资产比增加到一定程度时，自评健康得分降低，能够抑制居民健康水平上升。由此，需要进一步探究家庭负债资产比对健康水平从负向变为正向的拐点值。REF_Ref85991026\h表8中，是对核心解释变量和被解释变量间倒U型关系的检验。可以看出，计算出的极值点为28.99973，over_indebt的取值范围为[0，139.6348]，极值点存在于数据范围，并能够在5%的水平上（P=0.0286）拒绝原假设，且slope在区间里存在负号，则认为存在倒U型关系。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC7倒U型拐点回归(1)(2)VARIABLEShealthhealthover_indebt-0.009**-0.025***(-2.219)(-3.678)over_indebt_20.000**(2.154)lincome0.007***0.007***(3.559)(3.517)edu0.018***0.018***(3.128)(3.129)hukou-0.007-0.007(-0.726)(-0.729)marriage1-0.007-0.007(-0.452)(-0.449)hins1-0.014-0.015(-1.255)(-1.275)unemployment-0.044***-0.044***(-4.676)(-4.669)gender-0.015-0.015(-1.152)(-1.147)age-0.002***-0.002***(-3.347)(-3.353)familysize0.0100.010(1.595)(1.638)happiness10.674***0.674***(187.213)(187.219)rural0.104***0.104***(2.837)(2.832)house-0.005-0.005(-1.110)(-1.085)lconsump0.012**0.012**(2.347)(2.351)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002(-1.229)(-1.228)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.014***(-12.891)(-12.892)Constant0.843***0.844***(10.770)(10.813)Observations36,57636,576R-squared0.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,588Ftest00注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ图表\*ARABIC8倒U型检验LowerboundUpperboundInterval0139.6348Slope-.0249432.0951593t-value-3.6779691.902376P>t.000118.0285716讨论负债类别的影响根据CHFS的负债类别，对农业负债、工商业负债、房产负债、车辆负债、其他非金融资产负债、教育负债、医疗负债和其他负债进行分别回归，分析不同负债类别的差异性。根据REF_Ref84620339\h表9的回归结果（2）—回归（8）可知除车辆负债外其余负债对健康都会产生不利影响，其中，除了车辆负债和工商业负债在10%的水平上不显著，其他变量均显著。从影响方向来看，只有车辆负债对健康的影响是正向的；从显著性来看，房产负债的影响最明显，其次是教育负债和其他负债；从回归系数绝对值来看，非金融资产负债的影响最大，其次是教育负债。车辆负债对健康水平呈现出积极影响，对此可有两种解释，一是车辆作为消耗品，本身就在一定程度上反映了居民的生活情况，拥有车辆的居民往往有着更高的收入和更好的生活环境；二是不同于房贷，车贷的数目较低，所带来的财务压力也远低于房贷，并且可能存在“有车”的满足感大于还贷的痛苦感，即对居民主观情感的效用是正的。房贷和教育负债都存在显著的抑制作用，二者都属于长期的投资，尤其是房价攀升、教育成本激增的现象更使得其压缩了居民其他方面的支出，甚至是增加了居民的劳动时间。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC9负债类别回归结果（1）(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)lagridebt-0.006*(-1.749)lcommdebt-0.003(-1.105)lhousedebt-0.004***(-3.885)lvehidebt0.001(0.309)lnofindebt-0.012*(-1.871)ledudebt-0.007***(-2.966)lotherdebt-0.005***(-2.942)lincome0.008***0.019***0.010***0.009***0.010***0.011***0.007***0.008***(3.683)(3.887)(3.683)(4.035)(3.214)(3.833)(3.504)(3.662)edu0.018***0.0190.016**0.021***0.014*0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(0.811)(2.543)(3.524)(1.878)(2.843)(3.166)(3.136)hukou-0.0070.0070.000-0.006-0.007-0.004-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(0.234)(0.002)(-0.607)(-0.507)(-0.331)(-0.753)(-0.758)marriage-0.008-0.036-0.025-0.011-0.032-0.022-0.007-0.008(-0.475)(-0.898)(-1.127)(-0.632)(-1.158)(-1.050)(-0.434)(-0.502)hin-0.014-0.017-0.005-0.0140.002-0.011-0.014-0.014(-1.224)(-0.297)(-0.343)(-1.156)(0.140)(-0.796)(-1.241)(-1.250)unemployment-0.045***-0.027-0.056***-0.047***-0.047***-0.055***-0.045***-0.044***(-4.726)(-1.304)(-4.629)(-4.642)(-3.378)(-4.580)(-4.720)(-4.675)gender-0.0150.065-0.006-0.0170.011-0.006-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(1.162)(-0.415)(-1.268)(0.634)(-0.412)(-1.167)(-1.107)age-0.002***-0.002-0.002**-0.002***-0.003***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-0.998)(-2.550)(-2.778)(-3.123)(-2.737)(-3.395)(-3.364)familysize0.011*0.0030.013*0.013**0.0110.0110.0090.009(1.756)(0.216)(1.818)(1.980)(1.402)(1.596)(1.490)(1.533)happiness0.674***0.726***0.620***0.665***0.619***0.621***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(101.984)(137.776)(170.056)(124.783)(140.936)(187.160)(187.164)rural0.105***0.0950.148***0.112***0.168***0.137***0.104***0.102***(2.860)(1.217)(3.291)(2.895)(3.149)(3.116)(2.842)(2.779)house-0.0050.008-0.009-0.011*-0.007-0.008-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(0.790)(-1.455)(-1.953)(-1.006)(-1.469)(-1.152)(-1.183)lconsump0.014***0.019**0.0070.011**0.0090.0090.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.133)(1.098)(2.091)(1.165)(1.423)(2.448)(2.294)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.0010.003-0.0020.0010.001-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-0.234)(1.367)(-1.355)(0.499)(0.711)(-1.212)(-1.116)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.015***-0.012***-0.013***-0.013***-0.012***-0.013***-0.014***(-12.848)(-7.219)(-8.062)(-11.340)(-7.277)(-8.420)(-12.858)(-12.872)Constant0.830***0.415**1.023***0.809***1.025***0.987***0.844***0.846***(10.628)(2.272)(10.532)(9.597)(9.320)(10.333)(10.816)(10.822)yearcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolhhidcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolObservations36,57818,07626,15532,78722,77926,88736,56136,557R-squared0.7830.8150.7210.7760.7340.7260.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58812,80513,29113,40413,09313,30913,58813,588Ftest00000000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1REF_Ref84620351\h表10是将负债分为银行负债和非银行负债，对负债类别进行分析。回归（1）是银行负债的回归结果，可见lbankdebt对health存在显著的不利影响，即银行负债越多，居民的健康水平越低；回归（2）是非银行负债的回归结果，此时lnobankdebt对health的影响仍是不利的但并不显著。结合二者回归结果，负债中的银行负债是影响居民健康的重要因素，作为居民负债的主要来源之一（房贷、车贷等），其数额越大，居民的健康水平越低。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC10负债类别回归结果（2）(1)(2)(3)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthlbankdebt-0.006***-0.006***(-5.578)(-5.892)lnobankdebt-0.001-0.001(-1.611)(-1.614)lincome0.008***0.008***0.008***(3.781)(3.773)(3.611)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.061)(3.131)(3.064)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.727)(-0.705)(-0.744)marriage-0.004-0.006-0.005(-0.244)(-0.376)(-0.301)hin-0.013-0.014-0.014(-1.160)(-1.223)(-1.180)unemployment-0.046***-0.044***-0.046***(-4.787)(-4.641)(-4.782)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.139)(-1.111)(-1.143)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.224)(-3.352)(-3.192)familysize0.0100.0100.009(1.542)(1.615)(1.465)happiness10.672***0.674***0.672***(185.392)(187.449)(185.176)rural0.103***0.103***0.104***(2.789)(2.812)(2.813)house-0.002-0.003-0.005(-0.466)(-0.592)(-1.037)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**(2.726)(2.733)(2.402)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.238)(-1.168)(-1.282)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.926)(-12.883)(-12.899)Constant0.820***0.816***0.841***(10.326)(10.443)(10.610)Observations36,07336,57436,073R-squared0.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,57913,58813,579Ftest000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1倾向匹配得分（PSM）回归结果虽然REF_Ref84620217\h表3的回归结果初步证实了家庭中负债与健康间的负相关关系，然而遗漏变量问题会导致估计结果存在偏误。比如，家庭的金融素养或地区的发展程度会同时影响家庭负债和健康，从而导致有偏误的基准回归结果。为了更加精确地识别到两者间的影响方向，需借助实验思路进一步展开分析。基于不同估计方法产生的平均估计效应在REF_Ref84620252\h表11中总结，所有回归以REF_Ref84620217\h表3的（1）为基础，且协变量与控制变量保持一致。REF_Ref84620252\h表11中的回归（1）展示未经协变量匹配的一元回归结果，可以发现，α1的符号为正，即家庭存在负债能够提高健康水平。但回归（1）中的α1的回归结果并不准确，且系数标准误在10%的水平上不显著。回归（2）是加入协变量后的多元回归结果，可见α1的回归系数为负且显著。回归（3）在回归（2）的基础上加上了协变量进行匹配，结果显示α1的系数为负，且在1%的水平上显著，系数绝对值较回归（3）减少不到0.01。这一结果表明经协变量匹配后的平均处理效应可获得更为准确的结果，且在特征相似的家庭中，负债的存在能够导致更差的身体状况。相较于回归（3），回归（4）和回归（5）进行了一对四匹配，回归（5）进行卡尺内匹配，回归结果均显示不存在太远的“近邻”。回归（6）则是进行半径卡尺匹配，结果依然类似。回归（7）是核匹配，以检验PSM回归的稳健性，结果显示，回归方程中的α1总的来说，回归（2）~回归（8）的结果都表明家庭负债对健康存在不利影响，有家庭负债的健康得分比没有家庭负债的家庭低0.05左右。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC11PSM回归结果Panel(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)变量名称healthATT0.020(1.58)-0.063***(-10.78)-0.063***(-3.66)-0.067***(-5.06)-0.067**(-4.32)-0.047**(-3.04)0.057**

(-4.07)匹配否否是是是是是匹配方法一对一一对四卡尺内一对四半径匹配核匹配注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1工具变量法（IV）回归结果本文所研究的被解释变量健康水平和解释变量家庭总负债可能存在着双向因果关系，导致解释变量内生性，也就是说总负债能够影响健康水平，健康水平也能够影响总负债。在现有文献的基础上，本文采取了省级银行网点数（num）、统计局中的住宅商品房销售面积（s1）和商业营业用房销售面积（s2）共三个指标构建工具变量。其中，将s1、s2取对数生成ls1、ls2，并将对数作为工具变量。利用工具变量进行二阶段最小二乘法前，要考察工具变量的有效性。首先，对所构建的工具变量进行过度识别检验，检验结果P值为0.2556，故接受原假设，认为工具变量（num、ls1、ls2）外生，与扰动项无关。其次，根据第一阶段回归结果可知，工具变量（num、ls1、ls2）对内生解释变量ldebt有较好的解释力，P值均为0.000，都小于0.01；而在REF_Ref84620307\h表12中，两个工具变量的F值为21.1614，则不认为存在弱工具变量，再使用对弱工具变量进行有限信息最大似然法，liml和tsls的系数估计值相差不大，也说明不存在弱工具变量。最后，进行豪斯曼检验和DWH检验，P值均小于0.1，故认为ldebt为内生解释变量。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC12第一阶段回归汇总统计VariableR-sq.AdjustedR-sq.PartialR-sq.F(2,7375)Probldebt0.10370.10320.001721.16140.0000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ图表\*ARABIC13以ldebt为核心解释变量的不同回归结果ols_no_ldebtols_with_ldebttslslimlgmmigmmVARIABLEShealthldebt-0.005***-0.072***-0.075***-0.073***-0.073***(-10.028)(-4.562)(-4.491)(-4.598)(-4.598)lincome0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***0.015***(8.935)(8.966)(7.713)(7.620)(7.686)(7.686)edu0.019***0.019***0.030***0.030***0.030***0.030***(9.002)(9.398)(8.559)(8.392)(8.562)(8.562)hukou-0.004-0.005-0.021***-0.021***-0.021***-0.021***(-0.698)(-0.927)(-2.713)(-2.735)(-2.733)(-2.733)marriage0.038***0.037***0.020*0.019*0.020*0.020*(4.230)(4.083)(1.831)(1.736)(1.832)(1.832)hin0.013*0.012*-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(1.874)(1.718)(-0.175)(-0.237)(-0.199)(-0.199)unemployment-0.050***-0.052***-0.080***-0.081***-0.080***-0.080***(-7.391)(-7.722)(-7.883)(-7.765)(-7.893)(-7.893)gender0.0050.004-0.005-0.006-0.006-0.006(0.666)(0.557)(-0.647)(-0.685)(-0.653)(-0.653)age0.001***0.001***-0.003***-0.004***-0.004***-0.004***(5.873)(4.360)(-3.097)(-3.108)(-3.144)(-3.144)familysize-0.007***-0.006***0.0020.0020.0020.002(-4.128)(-3.745)(0.654)(0.759)(0.696)(0.696)happiness0.735***0.734***0.723***0.722***0.723***0.723***(266.024)(265.485)(173.929)(168.704)(173.496)(173.498)rural-0.044***-0.041***-0.009-0.007-0.008-0.008(-6.807)(-6.408)(-0.816)(-0.660)(-0.783)(-0.783)house0.010***0.012***0.029***0.029***0.029***0.029***(3.076)(3.480)(4.954)(4.908)(4.972)(4.972)lconsump0.033***0.036***0.079***0.080***0.079***0.079***(9.342)(10.271)(7.229)(7.041)(7.258)(7.258)lmedical_insurance-0.002*-0.0020.004**0.004**0.004**0.004**(-1.817)(-1.428)(2.030)(2.086)(2.048)(2.047)lmedical_expenditure-0.020***-0.020***-0.018***-0.018***-0.018***-0.018***(-22.383)(-22.264)(-16.849)(-16.514)(-16.787)(-16.787)Constant0.280***0.275***0.212***0.210***0.212***0.212***(7.049)(6.928)(4.251)(4.123)(4.221)(4.222)yearcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolhhidcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolcontrolR-squared0.8200.8210.7480.7420.7470.747Ftest000000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1回归（1）是ldebt不作解释变量的固定效应回归结果，回归（2）是ldebt作解释变量的固定效应回归结果，回归（3）是使用工具变量后的第二阶段回归结果，回归（4）是更为稳健的有限信息最大似然法，回归（5）和（6）分别是两步GMM估计和迭代GMM估计。这里仅对回归（3）进行解释，结果表明家庭负债（ldebt）对居民健康水平（health）的影响为负，系数绝对值也增加了，即家庭负债的增加不利于居民对自我健康的评价提升，但其显著度下降了，可能是使用工具变量后损失了较多的信息。异质性分析上文分析了我国居民负债对健康水平的总体影响，为了使研究结果更具有说服力，接下来将从负债类型、负债期限、性别和年龄对调查样本进行异质性分析，所使用的模型与回归分析保持一致，都是固定效应模型。负债期限对居民健康的影响进一步将负债按还款期限分为长期负债和短期负债，分析不同负债期限对居民健康的影响程度。REF_Ref84620363\h表14中回归（1）是长、短期负债同时作解释变量对健康的回归结果，回归（2）和回归（3）分别是短期负债和长期负债对健康的回归结果。相较于回归（1），回归（2）和（3）核心解释变量lshortdebt和llongdebt的显著性水平、影响方向均无明显变化，回归系数绝对值llongdebt增加了0.001。回归（2）和回归（3）之间核心解释变量的统计性质几乎一致，相较于（1），回归（2）的rural、lconsump显著度提升了，house显著度下降了，其余控制变量也无实质性差别，则负债期限对健康的影响并不存在异质性。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC14分负债期限的回归结果(1)(2)(3)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthlshortdebt-0.003***-0.003***(-2.619)(-3.604)llongdebt-0.002**-0.003***(-2.313)(-3.198)lincome0.009***0.008***0.009***(3.921)(3.847)(3.879)edu0.020***0.020***0.020***(3.156)(3.357)(3.150)hukou0.001-0.0050.001(0.115)(-0.534)(0.098)marriage-0.008-0.013-0.008(-0.449)(-0.729)(-0.440)hin-0.013-0.012-0.013(-1.020)(-0.944)(-1.017)unemployment-0.050***-0.046***-0.050***(-4.649)(-4.612)(-4.664)gender-0.017-0.017-0.017(-1.226)(-1.246)(-1.226)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-2.588)(-2.967)(-2.579)familysize0.011*0.0090.011*(1.684)(1.330)(1.683)happiness0.663***0.667***0.663***(163.417)(174.069)(163.397)rural0.104**0.111***0.104**(2.492)(2.932)(2.498)house-0.012**-0.010*-0.013**(-2.124)(-1.945)(-2.443)lconsump0.0090.012**0.008(1.573)(2.261)(1.391)lmedical_insurance-0.001-0.002-0.001(-0.709)(-1.071)(-0.725)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.013***(-10.984)(-11.740)(-10.997)Constant0.838***0.834***0.845***(9.519)(10.201)(9.614)Observations31,24034,03731,240R-squared0.7760.7770.775Numberofhhid13,41613,50313,416Ftest000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭负债对不同性别群体健康水平的影响根据REF_Ref84549128\h表15的回归结果可看出无论是债务水平还是过度负债，都对女性健康有着较为显著的负向影响，而对男性的影响不大。从影响方向来看，over_indebt对男性群体健康的影响是正向的，其余都呈现负向影响；从系数绝对值大小来看，女性均明显高于男性，即ldebt和over_indebt给女性带来的影响效果越是男性的两倍。针对不同性别群体，家庭债务对健康影响是存在比大的差别，这可能与男性和女性对相同经济压力有着不同程度的心理压力。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC15分性别群体的回归结果VARIABLESgender=0gender=1(1)(2)(3)(4)healthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.002-0.004***(-0.725)(-4.845)over_indebt0.007-0.013**(1.518)(-2.240)lincome0.0030.0040.009***0.009***(0.667)(0.700)(3.861)(3.702)edu0.0020.0020.034***0.034***(0.102)(0.117)(4.175)(4.223)hukou-0.057**-0.057**0.0030.003(-2.222)(-2.236)(0.257)(0.265)marriage0.0240.022-0.005-0.004(0.786)(0.740)(-0.191)(-0.155)hin-0.013-0.013-0.022-0.022(-0.482)(-0.481)(-1.528)(-1.534)unemployment-0.072***-0.071***-0.039***-0.038***(-2.886)(-2.858)(-3.468)(-3.425)age-0.001-0.001-0.003***-0.003***(-0.541)(-0.533)(-3.308)(-3.192)familysize0.046*0.045*0.0100.009(1.805)(1.792)(1.406)(1.292)happiness0.659***0.659***0.673***0.673***(66.219)(66.183)(166.767)(166.754)rural0.0760.0720.112***0.112***(0.565)(0.541)(2.794)(2.783)house-0.022*-0.022*-0.002-0.002(-1.680)(-1.682)(-0.399)(-0.448)lconsump0.0080.0060.013**0.011*(0.553)(0.418)(2.349)(1.959)lmedical_insurance0.0020.002-0.001-0.001(0.489)(0.477)(-0.586)(-0.671)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.012***-0.013***(-4.763)(-4.772)(-10.411)(-10.474)Constant0.921***0.937***0.763***0.776***(3.670)(3.750)(7.949) (8.095)Observations6,8816,88029,69729,696R-squared0.7630.7630.7840.784Numberofhhid3,4763,47611,96111,961Ftest0000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭负债对不同年龄群体健康水平的影响根据CHFS样本数据将年龄按30岁以下、30岁-39岁（包括39岁）、40岁-49岁（包括49岁）、50岁及50岁以上进行分组，分别代表了青年、中青年、中年和中老年。回归结果如REF_Ref84549240\h表16所示。结果表明，ldebt对30-39岁和50岁以上群体的健康水平显著负相关，显著性水平分别为10%和1%，而过度负债对各个年龄群体都不存在显著的回归关系，因此过度负债是不存在年龄的异质性的。另外，在回归系数符号中，可以发现家庭总负债和过度负债对各个年龄群体的健康都会产生不同程度的不利影响。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC16分年龄群体的回归结果VARIABLES29-30-3940-4950+(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)healthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003-0.003*-0.002-0.004***(-0.760)(-1.701)(-1.498)(-3.450)over_indebt-0.008-0.022-0.008-0.003(-0.075)(-0.733)(-0.997)(-0.508)lincome0.026**0.025**0.0050.0040.015***0.015***0.010***0.009***(2.112)(2.114)(0.637)(0.570)(3.790)(3.762)(3.271)(3.200)edu0.0690.0660.0130.0130.046***0.046***0.0140.014(1.004)(0.968)(0.740)(0.749)(3.207)(3.201)(1.473)(1.503)hukou-0.043-0.040-0.030-0.030-0.035*-0.035*0.0010.001(-0.748)(-0.692)(-1.067)(-1.075)(-1.762)(-1.755)(0.047)(0.053)marriage-0.054-0.0540.0340.0350.0510.049-0.008-0.007(-0.665)(-0.674)(0.621)(0.646)(1.171)(1.119)(-0.351)(-0.321)hin-0.093-0.0920.0430.043-0.029-0.028-0.004-0.005(-1.344)(-1.327)(1.304)(1.326)(-1.021)(-0.981)(-0.255)(-0.301)unemployment0.0590.057-0.068*-0.068*0.0150.015-0.060***-0.060***(0.663)(0.650)(-1.894)(-1.871)(0.634)(0.635)(-4.934)(-4.886)gender0.1990.207-0.040-0.041-0.003-0.002-0.015-0.015(1.503)(1.582)(-1.039)(-1.065)(-0.081)(-0.073)(-0.752)(-0.728)familysize0.066**0.064**0.057**0.057**-0.009-0.0080.0100.008(2.241)(2.197)(1.988)(1.997)(-0.412)(-0.381)(1.089)(0.861)happiness0.694***0.694***0.688***0.688***0.685***0.685***0.665***0.666***(22.166)(22.091)(63.345)(63.095)(86.374)(86.190)(137.035)(136.992)house-0.023-0.0250.0020.002-0.003-0.003-0.001-0.001(-0.729)(-0.772)(0.149)(0.152)(-0.292)(-0.320)(-0.170)(-0.163)lconsump-0.063-0.065-0.001-0.0030.0070.0060.012*0.010(-1.552)(-1.619)(-0.045)(-0.156)(0.636)(0.548)(1.816)(1.518)lmedical_insurance-0.007-0.008-0.005-0.0050.0000.0000.0030.003(-0.658)(-0.713)(-1.181)(-1.204)(0.140)(0.107)(1.213)(1.182)lmedical_expenditure-0.016**-0.017**-0.005-0.005-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-2.005)(-2.036)(-1.463)(-1.455)(-5.520)(-5.582)(-10.007)(-9.987)rural0.320*0.317*0.1160.1170.096**0.094*(1.937)(1.906)(1.128)(1.139)(1.967)(1.926)Constan1.117**1.150**0.786***0.802***0.624***0.628***0.658***0.680***t(1.988)(2.057)(3.108)(3.167)(3.915)(3.945)(7.885)(8.146)Observations8228223,9553,9559,0209,02022,78122,779R-squared0.8180.8180.8250.8250.8070.8070.7680.768Numberofhhid4964962,0942,0944,4974,4979,6199,619Ftest00000000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭负债对不同家庭资产水平群体的影响将居民家庭资产水平从低到高均分为五组，并分别进行回归，结果依次是REF_Ref85242583\h表17中的回归（1）、（2）、（3）、（4）、（5）。从实证结果易见，低资产水平家庭的负债对健康的影响较为明显，随着资产水平的上升，其呈现出影响效果递减、影响显著度下降的趋势。另外，在回归（5）中，ldebt的系数方向发生了改变，虽然并不显著，但仍可以推测高资产水平家庭的负债很可能对健康有着积极效应。由此，家庭负债对不同家庭资产水平群体存在异质性。为了更加清晰地探究家庭负债的调节作用，REF_Ref85992460\h表18加入了交互项ldebt*lasset、over*lasset在回归（2）中，回归（1）、（3）是基准回归，回归（2）、(4）是交互项回归结果。对比回归（1），回归（2）的交互项系数绝对值减少了，说明家庭资产水平能够削弱负债对健康的影响，即居民所拥有的家庭资产越多，其家庭负债越不会降低健康水平。对于回归（3），回归（4）交互项的系数绝对值也下降了，同理，家庭资产水平越高的居民负债对健康的影响越小。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC17分家庭资产水平群体的回归(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.005*-0.005**-0.001-0.0030.000(-1.871)(-2.121)(-0.645)(-1.229)(0.027)lincome0.0090.0070.0010.012*0.001(1.522)(0.972)(0.180)(1.913)(0.133)edu0.0240.013-0.013-0.0030.017(0.983)(0.621)(-0.903)(-0.185)(1.442)hukou0.065-0.003-0.0020.0240.000(1.011)(-0.084)(-0.071)(0.920)(0.020)marriage0.041-0.0420.091*-0.061-0.008(0.823)(-0.776)(1.928)(-1.214)(-0.188)hin-0.114-0.001-0.0560.029-0.045**(-1.293)(-0.020)(-1.538)(0.956)(-2.203)unemployment-0.074***-0.073**-0.079***0.014-0.029(-2.885)(-2.343)(-2.715)(0.511)(-1.136)gender-0.010-0.0380.008-0.0010.007(-0.177)(-0.713)(0.208)(-0.036)(0.255)age-0.0010.001-0.003*-0.006***-0.003*(-0.708)(0.580)(-1.655)(-2.629)(-1.687)familysize-0.0260.0010.0280.0180.021(-1.495)(0.083)(1.006)(1.035)(1.224)happiness0.715***0.690***0.673***0.645***0.632***(62.305)(61.196)(61.661)(59.413)(74.827)rural0.0260.0670.1620.1410.478*(0.215)(0.532)(1.122)(1.406)(1.873)house0.016-0.0040.0160.019-0.006(0.768)(-0.215)(0.961)(1.389)(-0.716)lconsump-0.009-0.0030.017-0.0190.007(-0.624)(-0.183)(1.001)(-1.165)(0.532)lmedical_insurance0.007-0.001-0.002-0.007*0.002(1.003)(-0.187)(-0.445)(-1.649)(0.636)lmedical_expenditure-0.012***-0.013***-0.014***-0.008***-0.011***(-3.596)(-3.980)(-4.304)(-2.782)(-4.546)Constant0.710***0.802***0.821***1.458***1.154***(2.944)(3.159)(3.177)(5.849)(5.467)Observations6,2707,4227,6337,6697,584R-squared0.7920.7840.7880.7720.785Numberofhhid3,9795,0585,2705,1294,097Ftest00000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ图表\*ARABIC18家庭资产的调节作用(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)ldebt_lasset-0.000***(-4.280)over_indebt2-0.009**(-2.219)over_lasset-0.001**(-2.463)lincome0.008***0.008***0.007***0.007***(3.683)(3.708)(3.559)(3.554)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.115)(3.128)(3.130)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.717)(-0.726)(-0.725)marriage-0.008-0.008-0.007-0.007(-0.475)(-0.465)(-0.452)(-0.459)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.015(-1.224)(-1.223)(-1.255)(-1.261)unemployment-0.045***-0.045***-0.044***-0.044***(-4.726)(-4.722)(-4.676)(-4.682)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(-1.138)(-1.152)(-1.162)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-3.434)(-3.347)(-3.345)familysize0.011*0.011*0.0100.010(1.756)(1.713)(1.595)(1.615)happiness10.674***0.674***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(187.230)(187.213)(187.201)rural0.105***0.105***0.104***0.104***(2.860)(2.854)(2.837)(2.837)house-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.033)(-1.110)(-1.102)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.695)(2.347)(2.354)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.157)(-1.229)(-1.229)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.848)(-12.861)(-12.891)(-12.897)Constant0.830***0.829***0.843***0.843***(10.628)(10.611)(10.770)(10.778)Observations36,57836,57836,57636,576R-squared0.7830.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,58813,58813,588Ftest0000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭负债对不同收入群体的影响和家庭资产水平一样，将收入由低到高均分为五组，观察家庭负债是否对收入水平不同的群体存在异质性。REF_Ref85282823\h表19中回归（3）、（4）的ldebt对健康水平存在显著的负向影响，回归（1）、（2）、（5）的ldebt也对健康存在负向影响，即从影响方向来看，ldebt对health存在着消极影响。而且，家庭负债对中等水平收入群体的健康水平影响较高、低等水平收入群体更为明显、作用效果更大。此外，随着家庭收入增加，负债对健康水平的影响越来越明显（高收入家庭除外）。进一步分析家庭收入在其中的调节作用，在REF_Ref85290857\h表20中加入了交互项ldebt_lincome、over_lincome，其中回归（1）、（3）是基准回归，回归（2）、（4）分别加入了ldebt_lincome、over_lincome。交互项的系数为负，说明解释变量ldebt、over_indebt随lincome的增加而削弱对health的影响，即收入越高的家庭，其负债对健康水平的影响更小。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC19分收入群体的回归(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003-0.003-0.005*-0.007***-0.001(-1.127)(-0.996)(-1.745)(-2.653)(-0.684)lincome0.0060.039-0.1040.010-0.056***(1.245)(1.015)(-1.579)(0.152)(-3.628)edu0.0310.0280.0050.0020.005(1.308)(1.095)(0.237)(0.103)(0.369)hukou-0.0230.061-0.0260.011-0.026(-0.585)(1.599)(-0.762)(0.367)(-1.167)marriage0.014-0.0670.038-0.125**-0.071(0.330)(-1.097)(0.667)(-2.053)(-1.407)hin-0.069-0.008-0.0010.021-0.017(-0.635)(-0.155)(-0.035)(0.648)(-0.687)unemployment-0.065***-0.039-0.001-0.072**-0.011(-2.659)(-1.117)(-0.028)(-1.968)(-0.370)gender0.0050.001-0.0220.020-0.008(0.095)(0.016)(-0.429)(0.511)(-0.272)age0.002-0.003-0.007***-0.004-0.003(0.912)(-1.139)(-2.680)(-1.407)(-1.440)familysize-0.039-0.001-0.021-0.0040.043***(-1.500)(-0.036)(-0.671)(-0.111)(3.027)happiness10.715***0.677***0.660***0.645***0.629***(63.595)(54.458)(52.734)(54.075)(66.398)rural-0.0070.201**0.016-0.0150.091(-0.065)(2.096)(0.147)(-0.141)(0.536)house-0.000-0.023-0.0090.010-0.001(-0.028)(-1.184)(-0.511)(0.615)(-0.084)lconsump0.026*-0.0270.068***0.0270.009(1.789)(-1.437)(3.334)(1.429)(0.631)lmedical_insurance0.010-0.0040.003-0.0060.000(1.511)(-0.562)(0.587)(-1.249)(0.032)lmedical_expenditure-0.014***-0.012***-0.016***-0.016***-0.011***(-4.370)(-3.348)(-4.513)(-4.823)(-3.789)Constant0.3840.768*1.903**1.0901.914***(1.580)(1.712)(2.528)(1.377)(6.999)Observations7,1797,3067,3057,3707,418R-squared0.7830.7820.7810.7790.787Numberofhhid4,7805,4195,6075,4264,737Ftest00000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1表SEQ图表\*ARABIC20家庭收入的调节作用(1)(2)(3)(4)VARIABLEShealthhealthhealthhealthldebt-0.003***(-4.779)ldebt_lincome-0.000***(-4.512)over_indebt2-0.009**(-2.219)over_lincome-0.001***(-2.654)lincome0.008***0.008***0.007***0.008***(3.683)(4.018)(3.559)(3.633)edu0.018***0.018***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(3.112)(3.128)(3.128)hukou-0.007-0.007-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(-0.721)(-0.726)(-0.729)marriage-0.008-0.008-0.007-0.007(-0.475)(-0.465)(-0.452)(-0.454)hin-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.015(-1.224)(-1.231)(-1.255)(-1.261)unemployment-0.045***-0.045***-0.044***-0.044***(-4.726)(-4.712)(-4.676)(-4.667)gender-0.015-0.015-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(-1.140)(-1.152)(-1.162)age-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-3.436)(-3.347)(-3.341)familysize0.011*0.011*0.0100.010(1.756)(1.734)(1.595)(1.614)happiness10.674***0.674***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(187.233)(187.213)(187.210)rural0.105***0.105***0.104***0.104***(2.860)(2.862)(2.837)(2.837)house-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(-1.040)(-1.110)(-1.112)lconsump0.014***0.014***0.012**0.012**(2.719)(2.686)(2.347)(2.337)lmedical_insurance-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(-1.154)(-1.229)(-1.232)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***(-12.848)(-12.870)(-12.891)(-12.890)Constant0.830***0.822***0.843***0.841***(10.628)(10.522)(10.770)(10.763)Observations36,57836,57836,57636,576R-squared0.7830.7830.7830.783Numberofhhid13,58813,58813,58813,588Ftest0000注：Robustt-statisticsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1家庭负债对健康水平的影响机制检验REF_Ref84553311\h表21中回归（1）是ldebt的基准回归结果，回归（2）、（3）、（4）是机制一的回归结果，回归（5）、（6）、（7）、（8）是机制二的回归结果，REF_Ref84584444\h表22回归（9）、（10）、（11）、（12）是机制三的回归结果。影响机制一回归（2）的被解释变量是总资产对数lasset，是家庭的重要经济指标之一，ldebt与lasset正相关（0.017，P<0.01），说明ldebt和lasset同向变化，这一结果也是符合理论逻辑的；回归（3）的被解释变量是health，lasset对health有显著的促进作用（0.023，P<0.01）；回归（4）在回归（1）的基础上加入了变量lasset，ldebt对health仍有显著抑制作用（-0.004，P<0.01），则家庭资产同样也是中介变量，说明家庭资产越高的家庭，其负债对健康的冲击就越小。根据回归结果，ldebt、lasset在三个回归模型中都是显著的，则存在家庭负债—家庭财富—健康水平的影响机制。表SEQ图表\*ARABIC21影响机制的稳健标准差回归结果（1）机制一机制二(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)VARIABLEShealthlassethealthhealthhealthlmedical_insurancehealthhealthldebt-0.003***0.017***-0.004***-0.004***0.008**-0.003***(-4.779)(11.222)(-5.349)(-5.258)(2.548)(-4.779)lasset0.023***0.024***(6.876)(7.210)lmedical_insurance-0.0020.009***-0.002-0.002-0.002-0.002(-1.158)(2.884)(-1.349)(-1.301)(-1.208)(-1.158)lincome0.008***0.077***0.006***0.006***0.008***0.0130.007***0.008***(3.683)(14.071)(2.729)(2.778)(3.929)(1.447)(3.598)(3.683)edu0.018***0.0130.018***0.018***0.017***0.081***0.018***0.018***(3.106)(0.890)(3.092)(3.054)(2.971)(2.656)(3.137)(3.106)hukou-0.0070.039*-0.008-0.008-0.0110.029-0.007-0.007(-0.719)(1.912)(-0.803)(-0.818)(-1.179)(0.609)(-0.710)(-0.719)marriage-0.0080.082*-0.009-0.010-0.007-0.056-0.007-0.008(-0.475)(1.916)(-0.572)(-0.598)(-0.442)(-0.757)(-0.457)(-0.475)hin-0.0140.033-0.015-0.015-0.0090.149**-0.014-0.014(-1.224)(1.440)(-1.318)(-1.293)(-0.849)(2.032)(-1.249)(-1.224)unemployment-0.045***-0.039*-0.044***-0.044***-0.043***-0.365***-0.045***-0.045***(-4.726)(-1.826)(-4.607)(-4.638)(-4.675)(-8.793)(-4.695)(-4.726)gender-0.0150.061**-0.016-0.017-0.0140.061-0.015-0.015(-1.148)(1.997)(-1.220)(-1.259)(-1.123)(0.844)(-1.118)(-1.148)age-0.002***-0.003-0.002***-0.002***-0.002***-0.001-0.002***-0.002***(-3.459)(-1.604)(-3.212)(-3.356)(-3.459)(-0.467)(-3.325)(-3.459)familysize0.011*0.050***0.0080.0100.0100.157***0.0090.011*(1.756)(3.269)(1.318)(1.571)(1.643)(6.143)(1.522)(1.756)happiness0.674***0.040***0.673***0.673***0.675***0.049***0.674***0.674***(187.212)(6.755)(186.972)(186.892)(193.544)(4.113)(187.261)(187.212)rural0.105***0.0100.104***0.105***0.103***0.291*0.104***0.105***(2.860)(0.116)(2.826)(2.851)(2.892)(1.952)(2.838)(2.860)house-0.0050.057***-0.007-0.006-0.0030.152***-0.005-0.005(-1.049)(5.452)(-1.455)(-1.350)(-0.669)(8.997)(-1.156)(-1.049)lconsump0.014***0.222***0.0060.0080.016***0.073***0.012**0.014***(2.719)(15.873)(1.275)(1.639)(3.418)(3.618)(2.347)(2.719)lmedical_expenditure-0.013***-0.006***-0.013***-0.013***-0.014***-0.014***-0.014***-0.013***(-12.848)(-2.952)(-12.770)(-12.731)(-13.705)(-3.7