触手可及-欧洲乘用车2025碳排目标评估-2024-12-市场解读

THEINTERNATIONALOUNCIL

NCEANTRANSPRTATN

icct

OCTOBER2024

Withinreach

The2025CO2targetsfornew

passengercarsintheEuropeanUnion

JANDORNOFF

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Thisanalysisestimatesthecarbondioxide(CO2)targetsmanufacturerswillfacein2025andcomparesthosewiththeCO2performanceoftheir2023vehiclefleetifitweretoremainunchangeduntil2025.Wefindthat,tomeet2025CO2targets,manufacturerswillneedtoreduceCO2emissionsby12%,onaverage,compared

withtheemissionsoftheir2023vehiclefleet.Therequiredreductionforindividualmanufacturersthatwerenotalreadybelowthetargetrangesfrom9%–21%.

Withadvantageouspoolingbymanufacturers,therangeofrequiredCO2reductionscouldnarrowto6%–13%,whichisclosetotheaveragerequiredreductionof12%.

InanextremecaseoftheCO2emissionsofcombustionenginevehiclesremaining

constant,manufacturerswouldneedtoincreasetheirbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)marketshareswithin2yearsbyamaximumof8–18percentagepointscompared

with2023.Forthehypotheticalpoolsinthisanalysis,therequiredBEVmarketsharegrowthwoulddropto4–12percentagepoints.

TheaverageCO2reductionof12%requiredfrom2023–2025isabouthalfthe23%

fleet-averageCO2reductionobservedbetween2019and2021.TheincreaseinBEV

marketsharerequiredforthehypotheticalmanufacturerpoolsinthisstudyisatmostabout1–1.5timesashighasthe8percentagepointgrowthobservedfrom2019–2021;atthattime,however,fewerBEVmodelswith,onaverage,lowerrangewereonthe

marketandthecharginginfrastructurewasmuchlessdeveloped.Besidesincreasing

theBEVmarketshare,manufacturerscanreducetheaverageCO2emissionlevelsof

theirinternalcombustionenginevehiclesbypromotingthemoreefficientvehiclesoftheirportfolio.Furthermore,deployingmildhybridizationcanreduceCO2emissionsbyatleast7%–15%,dependingonthetechnologypackage.

Althoughdetrimentalforreal-worldCO2emissions,manufacturerscanalsoincreasetheshareofplug-inhybridvehiclesand/orfurtherlowertheirCO2emissionvaluesbyextendingtheelectricrangeofthesevehicles.

iICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

FigureES1

Powertraintypesharesin2023andmaximumrequiredelectricvehiclesharestomeet2025CO2targetsforhypotheticalmanufacturerpools

65%

58%

+8

Toyota−Renault−Nissan−Mitsubishi

90%

78%

2%

2%

8%

100%

75%

50%

25%

Registrationshare

0%

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

BMW

78%

68%

+10

24%

Volkswagen−Tesla

73%

64%

5%

5%

22%

+9

30%

15%

15%

27%

20%

20%

+12

20232025

Kia−Hyundai

77%

68%

10%14%

+8

22%

Volvo−Ford

65%

61%

+4

8%

8%14%

20232025

Mercedes−Stellantis

10%

19%

19%

16%

20%

20232025

CombustionenginePlug−inhybridBatteryelectric(maximumshare)

Notes:Dataisshownforsixhypotheticalpools(sortedalphabetically)ofthe10largestmanufacturersthatdidnotproduceonlybatteryelectricvehiclesin2023plusTesla.ItassumesthatmanufacturersonlyadjusttheirBEVsharestomeettargets.

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iiICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Executivesummary i

Introduction 1

Determinationof2025manufacturerCO2targets 2

Fleet-averagetargetapplyingin2025–2029 2

Individualmanufacturertargetsin2025 3

Estimatedmanufacturertargetsin2025 5

AssumptionsmadeforcalculatingthemanufacturerCO2targets 5

PHEVCO2emissions:Effectofincreasingelectricrange 6

PHEVCO2emissions:Effectofutilityfactoradjustment 7

ManufacturerCO2targetsin2025 8

MaximumBEVsharerequiredbymanufacturersin2025tomeettheirCO2targets 9

Optionsformanufacturerstomeet2025targets 12

Manufacturerscanformpools 12

ManufacturerscanreduceCO2emissionsofcombustionenginevehicles 14

Manufacturerscanincreasetheshareofplug-inhybridvehicles 14

Summaryandconclusions 15

References 16

iiiICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

INTRODUCTION

Startingin2025,theEuropeancarbondioxide(CO2)standardsfornewcarsandvans,Regulation(EU)2019/631,willsetthenextlevelofambitionfornewvehiclesregisteredintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)andputtheregiononthepathto100%zero-

emissionnewvehiclesby2035.TheCO2targetappliestonewvehiclesregisteredfrom2025–2029andrequires,onaverage,a15%reductioninCO2emissionscomparedwitha2021baseline.ThisisequivalenttoanannualCO2emissionsreductionrateofabout4%from2021–2025.

Between2021and2023,CO2emissionsofinternalcombustionenginevehicles(ICEVs)remainedlargelyconstant;manufacturersachievedCO2emissionreductionsprimarilybyincreasingtheirshareofplug-inhybridvehicles(PHEVs)andbatteryelectric

vehicles(BEVs)(Tietgeetal.,2024).BecausetheofficialPHEVCO2emissionvalues

havebeenfoundtonotadequatelyreflectemissionsduringreal-worlddriving,revisedcalculationparametersfordeterminingtheofficialCO2emissionsofnewPHEVmodelswillapplyfrom2025.Oneyearlater,thenewparameterswillapplytoallnewPHEVsregistered(Dornoff,2022).Asaresult,thehighertype-approvalCO2emissionvalueswillmakePHEVslesseffectiveformeetingtheCO2targets.

ThisreportestimatestheCO2targetspermanufacturerin2025anddeterminesthemaximumBEVsharerequiredtomeetthesetargets,consideringtheadjustedPHEVCO2emissionvaluesandtheeffectofzero-andlowemissionvehicleincentivesintheCO2targetcalculations.ItassumesthatmanufacturerswillnotfurtherreduceICEV

CO2emissions.

Thisreportisstructuredasfollows:Firstthemechanismfordeterminingmanufacturer

CO2targetsin2025isexplained.Then,theestimatedCO2targetsin2025per

manufacturerarepresented,togetherwiththeshareofelectricvehiclesthatwouldberequiredtomeetthosetargets.WecomparethecurrentstateoffleetCO2emissions

andrequiredreductionswiththe2019–2021period,whenthelaststrengtheningofCO2targetsoccurred,andhighlightcomplianceoptionsformanufacturerstomeet2025

targetsinadditiontoincreasingtheirBEVshares,includingpooling.Thereportcloseswithasummaryandconclusions.

1ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

DETERMINATIONOF2025MANUFACTURERCO2TARGETS

FollowingthesameprincipleastheprecedingCO2standards,EC443/2009,a

fleet-averageCO2targetisdefinedfortheperiod2025–2029.Fromthisfleet-averagetarget,individualtargetsforeachyearpermanufacturerarederived,dependentontheaveragemassofthemanufacturer’snewvehicleregistrations.Carmanufacturerscanpooltogetherseveralbrands,notnecessarilyfromthesamemanufacturer,to

meetCO2targets.Poolsaretreatedasonemanufacturer,and,therefore,CO2targetsandperformancearecalculatedbasedonallcarsregisteredbytheparticipating

manufacturers.

Toallowforayear-on-yearcomparisoninthisanalysis,manufacturersthatwere

subsidiariesofthesamecorporationin2023aregroupedtogetherandtreated

asasinglemanufacturerinallyearsanalyzed.Intheremainderofthereport,the

termmanufacturerreferstobothindividualmanufacturesandgroupsofconnectedmanufacturers.1Thestudyfocusesonthe10largestmanufacturersintermsofnewregistrationsin2023,leavingasideTesla,amanufacturerthatsolelysellsBEVs.

FLEET-AVERAGETARGETAPPLYINGIN2025–2029

As

Figure1

shows,theWorldwideharmonizedLightvehiclesTestProcedure(WLTP)

fleettargetthatappliesfrom2025–2029isdefinedrelativetoa2021WLTPfleet

target.Itrequiresa15%reductioninCO2emissionscomparedwiththe2021value,

whichcorrespondstoanannualreductionofabout4%.TheWLTPfleettargetfor

2021isdeterminedforeachmanufacturerbyfirstmultiplyingthe2020NewEuropeanDriveCycle(NEDC)targetof95g/kmwiththeaverageratioofmeasuredWLTPanddeclaredNEDCCO2emissionsofallitscarsregisteredin2020.Aftercorrectingthis

valueforthemanufacturersaveragemassin2021,afleet-averagetargetiscalculatedasthe2021averageweightedbynumberofregistrationsacrossallmanufacturers,

resultinginthe2021WLTPfleettargetof110.1g/km.Applyingthe15%reductionyieldsa2025–2029WLTPfleettargetof93.6g/km((EU)2023/1623,2023).

InordertomoreaccuratelyreflectthephysicaleffectoftheWLTPandNEDCtestproceduresonCO2emissions,andtopreventmanufacturersfrominflatingthe2021fleettarget(andtherebythedependent2025–2029fleettarget),theWLTPCO2

emissionsmeasuredduringtype-approvalareusedforthe2021fleettargetcalculation,andnotthevaluesdeclaredbythemanufacturer(Dornoffetal.,2020).Thefleet-

averageratioofmeasuredWLTPandNEDCCO2emissionsin2020of1.157usedforthetargetcalculationwasdeterminedbytheJointResearchCentreoftheEuropeanCommission.ThismeansthatWLTPCO2emissionsareonaverage15.7%higherthantheemissionsdeterminedunderNEDC(Suarezetal.,2023).

1Manufacturersandconnectedundertakingsconsideredinthisstudy:BMWGroup(BMW,Mini);Ford

(Ford);Hyundai(Hyundai);Kia(Kia);Mercedes-Benz(Mercedes-Benz,Smart);Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi(Dacia,Mitsubishi,Nissan,Renault);SAIC(MG);Stellantis(AlfaRomeo,Citroën,Fiat,Jeep,Lancia,Opel,Peugeot);Suzuki(Suzuki);Toyota(Lexus,Toyota);Volkswagen(Audi,Cupra,Porsche,SEAT,VW,Škoda);andVolvo(Volvo).

2ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

Figure1

FleetNEDCTargetin2020=95gCO2/km

RatioofmeasuredCO2WLTPandCO2NEDCin2020

ofmanufacturer1

massadjustment

kg

measuredCO2WLTP2020

Massin2021

ofmanufacturer1

CO2NEDC

2020

RatioofmeasuredCO2WLTPandCO2NEDCin2020

ofmanufacturer2

WLTPfleettarget2021

WLTPfleettargetfor2025–2029

93.6gCO2/km

massadjustment

110.1gCO2/km-15%

kg

measuredCO2WLTP2020

Massin2021

ofmanufacturer2

CO2NEDC

2020

O2

ofmanufacturer...

measuredCO2WLTP2020

Massin2021

ofmanufacturer...

RatioofmeasuredCO2WLTPandCNEDCin2020

massadjustment

Calculationofthe2025–2029CO2fleettarget

Manufacturer1

Manufacturer2

Manufacturer...

kg

CO2NEDC

2020

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INDIVIDUALMANUFACTURERTARGETSIN2025

In2025andeachcalendaryearupto2029,specificCO2targetsaredeterminedfor

eachmanufacturer,asshownin

Figure2

.First,amanufacturerreferencetargetis

calculatedasthe2025WLTPfleettarget,adjustedfortheaverageWLTPtestmass

ofallvehiclesregisteredbythemanufacturerineachyear.2Thereferencetargetis

thenmultipliedwiththezero-andlow-emissionvehicle(ZLEV)correctionfactor.3

TheZLEVcorrectionraisesamanufacturer’sCO2targetbythenumberofpercentagepointsthemanufacturersZLEVregistrationshareexceeds25%.Forexample,if26.7%ofamanufacturer’snewregistrationsareZLEVs,theCO2targetisincreasedby26.7%,minus25%,equaling1.7%.Thecorrectioniscappedat5%.

2ThevehicletestmassisusedunderWLTPtodetermineeachvehicle’sCO2emissionsindividually.Itis

definedasthemassinrunningorderplusthemassofinstalledoptionalequipmentplus25kgplusamassrepresentativeofthevehicleloadunderaverageuse.

3ZLEVsarevehicleswithCO2emissionsof50g/kmorless.Avehiclewith0gCO2/kmiscountedas1

ZLEV,whereasavehiclewith50g/kmiscountedas0.3ZLEV.TheZLEVofvehicleswithCO2emissionsin

betweentheseboundariesaredeterminedbylinearinterpolationbetween1and0.3;e.g.,avehiclewith25gCO2/kmisequivalentto0.65ZLEV.

3ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

Figure2

DeterminationofmanufacturerCO2targetsin2025

Massinyear2025

ManufacturerCO2referencetarget

for2025

ZLEVcorrection

in2025:

+0to+5%

ManufacturerCO2target

for2025

WLTPfleetCO2target

for2025–2029:

93.6gCO2/km

ofeachmanufacturer

kg

ZLEVshare>25%?

Zero-andLow-EmissionVehicle(ZLEV)incentive:

•ZLEVsarevehicleswith50gCO2/kmorless

•Vehicleswith0gCO2/km=1ZLEV

•Vehicleswith50gCO2/km=0.3ZLEV

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4ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

ESTIMATEDMANUFACTURERTARGETSIN2025

ManufacturerCO2targetsfor2025donotonlydependonthefleet-averagetest

massofalltheirvehiclesregisteredineachyear,butalsoontheshareofvehicleswithCO2emissionsof50g/kmorlessthroughtheZLEVmechanism,asexplainedinthe

previoussection.Therefore,tocalculatemanufacturerCO2targets,theaveragetest

mass,theCO2emissionsofindividualvehicles,andthemarketsharesofICEVs,fuel-cellelectricvehicles,PHEVs,andBEVsmustbeknown.

TocheckcompliancewithCO2targets,themanufacturer’sCO2performance,whichis

theaveragetheoftype-approvalCO2emissionsofallitsvehiclesregisteredinoneyear,iscomparedwiththeirtargetvalues.

SincecalculationoftheCO2targetsandmanufacturerperformancebothdepend

onthemarketshareofthedifferentpowertraintypes,determiningtheminimum

BEVmarketsharerequiredformeetingtheCO2targetisanoptimizationproblem.ThismeanstheBEVshareisnumericallyoptimizeduntilthedifferencebetweenthecalculatedCO2performanceandcalculatedCO2targetreacheszero.

ASSUMPTIONSMADEFORCALCULATINGTHEMANUFACTURERCO2TARGETS

Theassumptionsmadeforestimatingmanufacturer2025CO2targetsandminimumBEVsharerequiredtomeetthesetargetsareshownin

Table1

.

Toallowforacomparisonbetweenyears,weassumefortheperiod2021–2025that

thebrandsbelongingtoonemanufacturerarethesameasin2023,thelatestyearforwhichfleetwideCO2emissiondataisavailable.Consideringthatmanufacturerslargelyfocusonthetransitiontoelectromobility,wedonotexpectnotableinvestmentsin

efficiencymeasuresforICEVs,and,therefore,noimprovementsintheaverageCO2emissionsofICEVs,between2023and2025.ThisisinlinewiththeCO2performancedatapublishedbytheEuropeanEnvironmentAgencyfortheyears2021to2023,

showingaCO2reductionforICEVsofonly0.5%peryear(Tietgeetal.,2024).

Incontrast,theCO2emissionsofPHEVsareexpectedtochangeconsiderablyin2025comparedwith2023forthefollowingreasons.TheelectricrangeofPHEVscontinuestoincrease,whichlowersthecalculatedofficialCO2emissionvalue.Furthermore,an

adjustedutilityfactorwillapplyfromJanuary2025onwards,whichwillyieldofficial

PHEVCO2emissionvaluesmorerepresentativeofreal-worldusage.HowweestimatedthePHEVCO2emissionvaluesfor2025isdiscussedindetailinthenextsection.

Consideringthehighertype-approvalCO2emissionsofPHEVsfrom2025onwards,weexpectthemarketshareofPHEVstonotgrowinthefuture.Forthisanalysis,weassumethatthemarketsharein2025willbethesameasin2023.

Sincetheshareoffuel-cellvehicleswaswellbelow1%in2023,andaswedonotexpectaconsiderablegrowthuntil2025,wesettheirmarketsharetozeroforouranalysis.

ICEVsareexpectedtoconstitutetheremainingvehiclesinthefleetthatarenotPHEVsorBEVs.

Asexplainedintheprevioussection,theZLEVmechanismeffectisconsideredwhencalculatingthe2025targets.

5ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

Table1

AssumptionsregardingfleetcompositionandCO2emissionsbypowertraintypeforcalculating2025manufacturertargetsandperformance

Parameter

Assumption

Compositionofmanufacturerpools

Sameasin2023

ManufactureraverageCO2emissionsof

internalcombustionenginevehicles(ICEVs)

Sameasin2023

ManufactureraverageCO2emissionsofplug-inhybridvehicles(PHEVs)

Adjustedtoaccountforhistoric

developmentsintype-approvalCO2reductionandutilityfactoradjustmentin2025

PHEVmarketsharebymanufacturer

Sameasin2023

Fuel-cellvehiclemarketsharebymanufacturer

Settozero,asmarketsharein2023was<<1%

Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)marketsharebymanufacturer

OptimizedforCO2performancetomatchCO2

target.

IfBEVsharein2023wassufficienttomeet2025target,2023marketsharewasused

ICEVmarketsharebymanufacturer

CalculatedasshareofvehiclesthatarenotBEVsorPHEVs

ICEVaveragetestmasspermanufacturer

Sameasin2023

PHEVaveragetestmasspermanufacturer

Sameasin2023

BEVaveragetestmasspermanufacturer

Sameasin2023

Zero-andLowEmissionVehicle(ZLEV)creditseffect

CalculatedforvehicleswithCO2emissions

<50g/kmasperregulation.CalculationwasperformedafteradjustmentofPHEVCO2

emissionsandpowertraintypemarketshares.

PHEVCO2emissions:Effectofincreasingelectricrange

PHEVscanoperateintwomodes.Inchargedepletingmode,theyoperatemostlyonelectricenergytakenfromthebattery.Inchargesustainingmode,theyaremostly

poweredbythecombustionengine;thebatterychargelevelremainsconstantovertime.Thelattermodeisusuallyassociatedwithadepletedbattery.TheofficialCO2emissionsvalueofaPHEViscalculatedfromtheCO2emissionsmeasuredinboth

modes,weightedbyautilityfactor.Theutilityfactordescribestheshareofdriving

performedinchargedepletingmodeanddependsontherangeaPHEVcandriveinthismode;thehighertherange,thehighertheutilityfactorandthelowertheofficialCO2emissions(Dornoff,2021).

As

Figure3

shows,officialCO2emissionofPHEVsintheyears2021–2023dropped

fromabout37g/kmto29g/km,whichisequivalenttoanannualreductionofabout

11.5%(EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2023).Thisreductioncoincideswithanincreaseinelectricrangefrom58kmin2021to69kmin2023.Onthisbasis,weexpectthat

PHEVCO2emissionswillcontinuetodropuntil2025by21.8%comparedwith2023andassumethatCO2reductionsaremainlyachievedbyincreasingtheelectricrangetoyieldahigherutilityfactor.Bythisapproach,weestimatethattheaverageelectricrangewillreachabout82kmin2025.

ForestimatingtheeffectoftheutilityfactoradjustmentonPHEVCO2emissionsin

2025,weapplythemethodologydescribedinPlötzetal.(2022)forderivingtheCO2emissionsinchargesustainingmodeforPHEVsregisteredin2023.AssumingtheCO2emissionsinchargesustainingmodewouldremainconstantoverthenextfewyears,liketheobservationsmadeforICEVs,weadjusttheelectricrangetoderivetheutilityfactorthatwouldresultsin21.8%lowerPHEVCO2emissionsby2025.

6ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

ThederivedchargesustainingCO2emissionvaluesandelectricrangesarethenusedtocalculatetheeffectoftheutilityfactoradjustmentand,subsequently,theestimatedCO2emissionvaluesofPHEVstype-approvedin2025,asexplainedinthenextsection.

Figure3

Effectofthe2025utilityfactoradjustmentontheofficialPHEVCO2emissionsofvehiclesregisteredin2021–2023and2025

Estimatedfleet-averagePHEVCO2emissions(g/km)

91

85

Currentutilityfactor(UF)With2025UFadjustment If25%ofvehicleshave

2025adjustedUF

2.

77

67

6x

2.

37

34

29

9x

39

100

75

50

25

0

2.4x

2.5x

23

2021202220232025

100

75

50

25

0

THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

PHEVCO2emissions:Effectofutilityfactoradjustment

Asshownontheleftsideof

Figure3

,applyingthenewutilityfactortothe2021fleet

wouldhaveresultedintheofficialPHEVCO2emissionvalueincreasingfrom37g/kmto91g/km(about2.4timeshigher).Therelativeincreaseishigherforthe2022and2023fleets,coincidingwiththelowertype-approvalCO2emissionvalues.ThisisowedtotheincreasingaverageelectricrangeofPHEVsregisteredin2021–2023,incombination

withthecurrentutilityfactorcurvehavingastrongereffectforrangeincreaseontheCO2emissionsthanthenewutilityfactorcurve.

Thediagramontherightsideof

Figure3

showstheexpectedeffectofthenewutilityfactorontheCO2emissionsofPHEVsregisteredin2025.Sincethenewutilityfactorappliesonlytonewmodelsin2025andtoallmodelsfrom2026onwards,wehadtomakeanassumptionsabouttheshareofPHEVsthatwouldbenewlytype-approvedin2025.DuetohigherCO2emissionsunderthenewutilityfactor,itismorebeneficialformanufacturerstosellPHEVstype-approvedwiththecurrentutilityfactor.We,

therefore,assumethatonlythe25%ofPHEVspermanufacturerwiththelowest

CO2emissionsundertheoldutilityfactorwillbereplacedbynewmodelsin2025.Theremaining75%ofPHEVssoldinthatyearareexpectedtobemodelsthatwereintroducedintothemarketbefore2025.

Asaresult,weassumethataverageCO2emissionsofPHEVsregisteredin2025are

about39g/km,comparedwith23g/kmifallweresubjecttothecurrentutilityfactorand68g/kmifallweresubjecttothenewutilityfactor.

7ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

MANUFACTURERCO2TARGETSIN2025

AfteroptimizingtheBEVsharepermanufacturerfor2025tohavethemanufacturers’CO2performancematchtheirspecificCO2targets,wearriveatthetargetspresentedin

Figure4

bythehorizontallines.ThetargetsarecomparedwiththeCO2performanceof2023vehicles,adjustedforexpectedchangesinplug-inhybridCO2emissionsapplyingfrom2025.ThecomparisonrevealsthatallmanufacturersexceptVolvowillneedto

reducetheirCO2emissionstomeetthenewtargets.

Underourassumptions,VolkswagenandFordfacethelargestreductioneffortofthebrandsassessedatabout21%.TheCO2reductionrequiredbyHyundai,Mercedes-Benz,andToyotaisalsohigherthantheaverageof12%.BMW,Kia,andStellantisareclosesttomeetingtheirtargetwithrequiredCO2reductionsof9%to11%.Itshouldbenoted

thatmanufacturershavetheflexibilitytoformpoolswithothermanufacturersandtherebylowertheiraverageCO2performanceandsubsequentlyreducetherequiredreduction.Thisisanalyzedfurtherbelow.

Figure4

ManufacturerCO2targetsapplyingfrom2025incomparisonwiththeperformanceoftheir2023fleet,adjustedforexpectedchangesinplug-inhybridCO2emissions

EstimatedCO2performanceof2023vehiclesin2025(g/km)

109109111109−21%

104

−14

104

−14

%−14

%

−12%

96

96

94

959094

91

70

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

120

119

Estimated2025manufacturerCO2target

93

107

−21%

105

−9%

−10%

−17%

%

−11%

9494

93

30

%

BMWFordHyundaiKiaMercedes–Renault–StellantisToyotaVolkswagenVolvoFleet

BenzNissan–average

Mitsubishi

Note:Data(sortedalphabetically)isshownforthe10largest,leavingasideTesla,amanufacturerthatsolelysellsBEVs.THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

Toputtherequiredreductioneffortintoperspective,

Figure5

showsthehistoricfleet-averageCO2performanceofmanufacturerscomparedwiththetargets,withafocus

ontheyears2019–2021whenthelaststrengtheningofCO2targetsapplied.Itreveals

thatmanufacturersdidnotnotablyreducetheirCO2emissionsbetween2014and2019,untilthenewtargetsappliedin2020.Asimilarobservationcanbemadetoday.Fleet-averageCO2emissionsremainedalmostleveloverthepast2years,droppingbyonly1g/kmin2023comparedwith2022(Tietgeetal.,2024).

8ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROPEANUNION

ManufacturersreducedCO2emissionsbyabout12%in2020,andagainby12%in

2021.ThismeansmanufacturersreducedCO2emissionbyabout23%from2019–2021.Therefore,thefleet-averagereductionof12%requiredfrom2023–2025isonlyhalfasmuchasdemonstratedfeasiblebymanufacturersfrom2019–2021.

Figure5

Fleet-averageCO2performancecomparedwithCO2targets,2012–2025

150

2msonivalues(g/km)

100

50

0

Fleet-averageemissionsexcludingflexiblecompliancemechanisms

Testprocedure

2012−2019target:

130g/km

NEDCWLTP

2021−2024target:

118g/km

−12.4%

2020target:

95g/km

NEDC

2025−2029target:

94g/km

WLTP

−12.1%

20122014201620182020202220242026

THEINTERNATIONALCOUNCILONCLEANTRANSPORTATIONTHEICCT.ORG

MAXIMUMBEVSHAREREQUIREDBYMANUFACTURERSIN2025TOMEETTHEIRCO2TARGETS

Asanextremescenario,weassumethatmanufacturerswillrelysolelyonincreasingtheirBEVsharestomeet2025CO2targets.Underourassumptions,manufacturerswillneedtoincreasetheirBEVsharesatmostby12percentagepointsonaverage,fromabout16%in2023toapproximately28%in2025.Theincreaserequiredper

manufacturervaries,asshownin

Figure6

.

ExceptforVolvo,allmanufacturersrequireahigherBEVsharein2025thanin2023.ThelargestincreasesarerequiredbyFordandVolkswagen,atabout18and17

percentagepoints,respectively.Stellantis,BMW,andKiarequireaBEVshareincreaseofbetween8and9percentagepoints.A11–13percentagepointincreaseisrequiredbyHyundai,Mercedes,Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi,andToyota.

9ICCTREPORT|THE2025CO2TARGETSFORNEWPASSENGERCARSINTHEEUROP