中国传统能源地区的低碳转型 2024 LOW-CARBON TRANSITION OF TRADITIONAL ENERGY REGIONS IN CHINA

CCICED

chinacouncilforInternationalcooperationonEnvironmentandDevelopment

ScopingStudyTeamMembers

Projectteammembers*

Name

Organization

Co-chairs

WangJinnanPeteHarrison

ChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningEnvironmentalDefenseFund

StudyMembers

CaiBofengZhangLi

ZhangJialiHouLinjingGuoJing

ZangHongkuan

WuYunlongJiaMin

QinHuGaoJi

GanYiwei

ZhangHuiyongGaoLingyun

PangXiao

GaoJianfeng

YaoXilong

LiHui

WangJianxinKouJingna

ZhaoWentingLiJing

WangWenxi

WangXiangzengWangSujian

WangHong

ChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningTsinghuaUniversity

ChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanning

EnvironmentalDefenseFundEnvironmentalDefenseFundEnvironmentalDefenseFund

ForeignEnvironmentalCooperationCenter,MEEForeignEnvironmentalCooperationCenter,MEEForeignEnvironmentalCooperationCenter,MEE

ShanxiAcademyofSocialSciences(ProvincialGovernmentDevelopmentResearchCenter)

TaiyuanUniversityofTechnology

TaiyuanUniversityofScienceandTechnologyTaiyuanUniversityofTechnology

TaiyuanUniversityofTechnologyTaiyuanUniversityofTechnologyTaiyuanUniversityofTechnologyTaiyuanNormalUniversity

ShaanxiYanchangPetroleum(Group)Co.,Ltd.Xi’anUniversityofScienceandTechnology

ResearchInstituteofShaanxiYanchangPetroleum(Group)Co.,Ltd.

Low-carbonTransitionofTraditionalEnergyRegionsinChina

HangShuanzhu

YangFan

YinWeikangChengZhi

LiuShuo

ChenLin

YangLirongZhouXia

YanJichun

StrategicandPlanningResearchCenter,PioneerCollege,InnerMongolia

University

InnerMongoliaAutonomousRegionEcologicalEnvironmentLow-CarbonDevelopmentCenter

EcologyandEnvironmentDepartmentofNingxiaAutonomousRegionNingxiaCleanDevelopmentMechanismServiceCenter

NingxiaElectricPowerDesignInstituteEnergyPlanningResearchCenterNingxiaElectricPowerDesignInstituteEnergyPlanningResearchCenterEcologyandEnvironmentDepartmentofNingxiaAutonomousRegion

NingxiaCleanDevelopmentMechanismServiceCenter

NingxiaCleanDevelopmentMechanismServiceCenter

ResearchSupportTeam

MandyRambharosBélaGalgóczi

LiuShijin

HuangShaozhong

GuoJing

HanWenkeHuXiulianJiangKejun

ChineseCoordinator

CaiBofeng

ForeignCoordinator

GaoJi

EnvironmentalDefenseFund

EuropeanTradeUnionInstitute

DevelopmentResearchCentreoftheStateCouncilChinaEnergyResearchSociety

BRIInternationalGreenDevelopmentCoalition

EnergyResearchInstitute,NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,ChinaEnergyResearchInstitute,NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,ChinaEnergyResearchInstitute,NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,China

ChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanning

EnvironmentalDefenseFund

*Theco-leadersandmembersofthisPreliminaryStudyProjectTeamserveintheirpersonalcapacities.TheviewsandopinionsexpressedinthisPreliminaryStudyProjectTeamreportarethoseoftheindividualexpertsparticipatingintheSPS

TeamanddonotrepresentthoseoftheirorganizationsandCCICED.

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Low-carbonTransitionofTraditionalEnergyRegionsinChina

ExecutiveSummary

1.Thetransitiontomoveawayfromfossilfuelshasbecomeasharedresponsibilityofgovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunity.Theregionaldifferencesinenergydistributionaresignificantfactorsinfluencingtherealizationofenergytransition.Theuseoffossilfuelsisoneofthemainreasonsfortheintensificationofglobalclimatechange,andachievingthelong-termtemperaturecontrolgoalof1.5°CsetoutintheParisAgreementrequiressustainedeffortstoreduceemissions.The28thConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(COP28)explicitlystatedthatcountriesmust"transitionawayfromfossilfuelsinajust,orderly,andfairmannerwithintheenergysystem,"andproposedthatglobalrenewableenergyinstalledcapacitybetripledby2030comparedto2022,acceleratingtheshiftfromfossilfuelstorenewableenergy.Atthesametime,COP28pointedoutthatregionaldifferencesinenergydistributionareimportantfactorsaffectingtherealizationofenergytransition.

2.ThisprojectfirstproposestheconceptofChina'sCoalTriangleArea.Studyingthelow-carbon

transformationofthisregionisofgreatsignificanceforpromotingtheenergytransitionofChinaandeventheworld.TheCoalTriangleAreaencompassesfourprovinces:InnerMongolia,Ningxia,Shaanxi,andShanxi.ItisanimportantenergyandcoalbaseinChina,richincoalresources.In2023,thecoalproductioninthesefourprovincesreached1.21billiontons,100milliontons,760milliontons,and1.38billiontonsrespectively,accountingfor74%ofthenationalrawcoaloutput.TheCoalTriangleAreaisatypical,andperhapstheonlylarge-scalecoalenergyclusterinChina.Ithaslongbeendevelopinganeconomicdevelopmentandindustrialmodelthatisoverlydependentoncoalresources.Thetotalcarbondioxideemissions,percapitacarbonemissions,andcarbonintensityofthefourprovincesofInnerMongolia,Ningxia,Shaanxi,andShanxiareallamongthetopinthecountry.UnderChina'sstrategyforpeakingcarbonemissionsandachievingcarbonneutrality,theCoalTriangleAreafacesenormouschallengesbutalsoararestrategicopportunity.ConductingresearchonenergytransitionandindustrialupgradingintheCoalTriangleAreacanprovideextremelyvaluableexperiencefortraditionalenergyregionsbothnationallyandglobally.

3.ResearchontheenergytransitionintheCoalTriangleAreaplaysasignificantroleinchangingthe

regionaldevelopmentinasustainableandcoordinatedwayandpromotingajusttransition.TheCoalTriangleAreahaslongbeenover-exploitingandrelyingoncoalresources,facingenvironmentalpollutionandresourcedepletionissues.Duringthetransitionprocess,thefairnessissuehasnotbeengivenenoughattention.Therefore,thisprojectstudiestheenergytransformationinthecoaltrianglearea,andformulatsrelevantstrategicplans,supportingpoliciessoastofacilitatetheenergyandindustrialtransition,regionaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentintheCoalTriangleArea,andprovideaviablepathtoachieveregionalequity,ecologicalequity,andemploymentequityinthearea.

4.BasedontheChina'smedium-andlong-termemissionpathwaymodel(CAEP-CP2.0),a"black

energy—blueenergy—greenenergy"energytransitionpathhasbeenestablishedfortheCoalTriangleArea.Utilizingthemedium-andlong-termemissionpathwaymodel(CAEP-CP2.0)developedbytheprojectteam,andtakingintoaccountdatasuchasresourceendowment,energyproduction,energyconsumption,inter-provincialpowerexchange,andpowergridplanningwithinthetrianglearea,thepotentialofrenewableenergyintheCoalTriangleAreaisscientificallyassessed.ApathwayforenergytransitionintheCoalTriangleAreaisestablishedundertheconstraintofcarbondioxideemissiontargets,promotingthetransitionoftheCoalTriangleAreafrom"blackenergy(currentstatus)—blueenergy(by2035)—greenenergy(by2060)."

5.ProposetheindustrialtransitiondirectionfortheCoalTriangleAreaunderthewithdrawaloftraditionalcoalindustryandtheintegrateddevelopmentofnewenergy.Undertheconstraintsofthe"dualcarbon"goal,basedonthecurrentindustrialstatus,internationalanddomesticexperiences,andthelatestresearchprogress,analyzethegreenandlow-carbontransitionofcoal-relatedindustriesandtheintegrateddevelopmenttransitiondirectionofnewenergyindustriesintheCoalTriangleArea.Exploretheintegrateddevelopmentmodelofindustrialenergy,andrelyonregionaladvantageousresourcessuchasnewenergyresourcesandmanufacturingelementstocomprehensivelyanalyzedimensionsincludingnewenergyequipmentmanufacturing,newenergypowerconsumption,hydrogenenergy-storage,CCUS,etc.Proposetheupstreamanddownstreamindustrialsystemofthe"windandsolarplus"industrialchainwithintheareatoprovidetechnicalguidancefortheenergytransitionoftheCoalTriangleArea.

6.Identifynewopportunitiesforcoordinateddevelopmentofregionalequity,employmentequity,andecologicalequityintheenergytransitionpathoftheCoalTriangleArea.Thestudyisbasedontheconceptofachievingregionaleconomicandregionalcoordinateddevelopment,analyzetheopportunitiesforregionaleconomicdevelopmentbroughtaboutbytheenergytransitionandtheindustrialtransitionoftheCoalTriangleArea.Itcombinestherelationshipbetweenenergytransitionandindustrialtransitionwithruralrevitalization,identifiesnewopportunitiesfordevelopmentfromtheperspectiveofequitabletransition,includingregionalequity,employmentequity,andecologicalequity,andproposespolicyrecommendationstoensureequitabletransition.

7.Establishanational-levelcoordinationmechanismforthelow-carbontransitionintheCoalTriangleArea,pavingthewayforthelow-carbontransitionofChina'sfossilfuelgatheringareaswithinthe

grandschemeofaunifiednationalstrategy,andestablishingsystemsandregulations.Itsuggeststosetupaleadinggroupforthelow-carbontransitionoftheCoalTriangleAreaandestablishanintegratedtransitioncollaborationmechanismfortheCoalTriangleArea.RationallydeterminingthefunctionalpositioningoftheCoalTriangleAreainthenationalstrategyforpeakingcarbonemissionsinstages,fullyconsideringnationalenergysecurityanddemand,clarifyingthenationaldemandforcoalandcoal-firedpowertransmissionfromtheCoalTriangleArea,establishingacoalproductionreservesystem,andintroducingpreferentialpoliciestoencouragenewenergypowergenerationandgreenchannelsforgridacceptance,incentivizingnon-fossilfuelpowergeneration.Optimizethetimetable,roadmap,andassessmentmethodsforpeakingcarbonemissionsintheCoalTriangleArea.Atthesametime,fullyconsidertheimpactandeffectsofthelow-carbontransitionoftraditionalenergyonvulnerablegroups,employment,andecology,andexploretheestablishmentofajusttransitionmechanism.EncouragetheCoalTriangleAreatoestablishcommunicationchannelswithinternationalcoalareas,leadingthegloballow-carbontransitionofcoalareas.

8.ByleveragingthecollectivestrengthoftheentireCoalTriangleArea,establisha"Zero-CarbonPowerIndustryandTradeSpecialZone"toprovide"Zero-CarbonPower"certificationforexport-orientedenterprises,usingthespillovereffectsofthespecialzonetodriveabreakthroughtransitionoftheCoalTriangleArea'sindustries.ItrecommendsthattheCoalTriangleAreafullyestablisha"Zero-CarbonPowerIndustryTradeSpecialZone"(referredtoasthe"Zero-CarbonSpecialZone")mechanism,utilizingitsvastland,large-scalenewenergycapacity,andtheflexiblecomplementarypotentialadvantageswithfossilfuels.Exploitthenewbusinessmodelofregionalmicrogridstoensurealong-termcontinuoussupplyofzero-carbonpowerforthespecialzone,andprovidepreferentialimport/exporttaxpoliciesto

attractexport-orientedenterprisestosettleinthe"Zero-CarbonSpecialZone".Theinternalconstructionofthe"Zero-CarbonSpecialZone"includesazero-carbondigitalcertificationsystemthatprovidesfull

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Low-carbonTransitionofTraditionalEnergyRegionsinChina

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Nomenclature

lifecyclecarbonfootprintcertificationforproducts,endowingproductswithintheparkwithtraceable,internationallystandard-compliant"Zero-CarbonCertification"labels.Establishinga"Zero-CarbonPowerIndustryandTradeSpecialZone"isexpectedtobreakthroughthedilemmasofnewenergyabsorptionandindustrialtransitionintheCoalTriangleArea,andwillhelpChinaexploreeffectivewaystoaddressinternationaltradecarbonregulations.

9.EstablishaLow-CarbonTransitionFundfortheCoalTriangleAreatoleverageregionallow-carbontransitiontechnologyupgradesandensurefairnessandjustice.Itissuggestedtoadoptamixedfinancingmodelof"government-guidedfund+venturecapital/equityinvestmentinstitutions+corporateinvestors",providingcapitalatfavourablepricesthroughpublicandinternationaldevelopmentcapitaltodriveprivatecapitalthatoffersfundsatmarketprices.Thecatalyticcapitalconsistsofstate-ownedcapitalholdinggroupsfromtheprovincesoftheCoalTriangleAreaandvariousgreenindustryfunds,whilethepubliccapitaliscomposedofcoaltaxesandgovernmentpublicbudgetinvestments,attractingprivatecapital.AfinancialholdinggroupattheprovincialleveloftheCoalTriangleAreacouldjointlyestablishafundmanagementcompanyresponsiblefortheprofessionalmanagementofthetransitionfund.

Keywords：CoalTriangleArea;China;Low-carbontransition;Newenergy;Carbonpeakandcarbonneutrality

Abbreviation

Annotate

CCUS

CarbonCaptureUtilizationandStorage

CGE

ComputableGeneralEquilibrium

COP28

28thConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

ETS

EmissionsTradingSystem

EGD

EuropeanGreenDeal

ESR

EffortSharingRegulation

GIS

GeographicInformationSystem

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

IPCC

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

JTF

JustTransitionFund

LMDI

LogarithmicMeanDivisiaIndex

UNFCCC

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

SCF

SocialClimateFund

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Contents

ExecutiveSummary

1.Introduction

2.ResearchBackgroundandSignificance

2.1.Researchbackground

2.2.Overviewofthestudyarea

3.InternationalandDomesticExperiencesandInsightson

EnergyTransition

3.1.Caseanalysisofinternationalenergytransition

3.2.Caseanalysisofinternationaljusttransition

4.AnalysisoftheCurrentSituationoftheCoalTriangle

AreaandthePathtoPeakCarbonEmissions

4.1.Currentsituationanalysis

4.2.HistoricaltransitioneffectassessmentoftheCoalTriangleArea2010-2023

5.ChallengesandIssuesFacedintheTransitionoftheCoal

TriangleArea

5.1.Thecoaltrianglehasbeenlackinginmomentumoverthepast15yearsof

energytransitionandhasfailedtoachievesignificantoverallresults.

5.2.TheCoalTriangleAreaisover-dependentoncoal-relatedindustriesandhas

formedapathdependence,facingtheriskofcarbonlock-ininthefuture.

5.3.Breakthroughsinthetransitionofkeyareashavegivenrisetoabatchof

emergingindustries.

6.TransitionPathAnalysis

6.1.TheCoalTriangleAreaemissionpathways

6.2.Energytransitionpathways

6.3.Technologicaltransitionpathways.

6.4.Industrialtransitionpath.

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7.FairTransition

8.PolicyRecommendations

8.1.Establishanational-levelcoordinationmechanismforthelow-carbon

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transitionoftheCoalTriangleArea.

8.2.Establisha"Zero-CarbonPowerIndustryandTradeSpecialZone".

8.3.Establishalow-carbontransitionfundfortheCoalTriangleArea

References

AppendixAResearchMethodsandTechnicalApproach

1.Researchtechnicalapproach

2.China'smedium-andlong-termemissionpathwaymodelCAEP-CP2.0

3.Conductfieldresearchandholdsymposiums

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1.Introduction

TheChinaCouncilforInternationalCooperationonEnvironmentandDevelopmenthasestablishedaspecialpolicyresearchprojecton"ResearchProjectonLow-carbonTransitionofTraditionalEnergyRegionsofChina"withtheChineseAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanningandtheEnvironmentalDefenseFundservingastheleadingunitsfortheproject.Thisprojectfocusesonthegreenandlow-carbontransitionintheCoalTriangleArea,whilealsoconsideringissuesoffairness,justice,andenergysecurityduringthetransitionprocess.Itaimstodevelopstrategiestailoredtolocalconditions,formulatecomprehensiveplansforindustrialtransitionandupgrading,andprovideintegratedsolutionsforclimatechangetosupporttheearlyandrapidrealizationofChina'sdualcarbongoals.

2.ResearchBackgroundandSignificance

2.1.Researchbackground

2.1.1.The28thUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP28)explicitlystatedthatcountriesaroundtheworldshouldgraduallyphaseouttheuseoffossilfuels,andaseriesofinitiativesandalliancesoncoalphase-outhavebeenreachedinternationally.

The"UnitedArabEmiratesConsensus"reachedatCOP28,heldfromNovember30toDecember12,2023,attheExpoCityinDubai,UnitedArabEmirates,iswidelyregardedasahistoricmilestone.Forthefirsttime,thisagreementexplicitlysetacriticalgoal:countriesmusttransitionawayfromfossilfuelsinanequitable,orderly,andfairmannerwithintheenergysystem.Inadditiontosettingthegoalofphasingoutfossilenergy,the"UnitedArabEmiratesConsensus"alsospecifiedtheconcreteobjectiveoftriplingtheglobalinstalledcapacityofrenewableenergyby2030.Therehasbeenextensiveinternationalresearchoncoalphase-outanddecarbonization.TheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP28)hasbecomeanimportantplatformaimedatassessinganddiscussingglobalclimatechangeissues,aswellastheactionstakenbycountriestoreducegreenhousegasemissions,adapttotheimpactsofclimatechange,andprovidefinancialsupportandtechnologytransfer.

2.1.2.ThePartyCentralCommitteeattachesgreatimportancetothecomprehensivegreenandlow-carbontransitionoftheeconomyunderthedual-carbongoals,butfacestheriskofhigh-carbonlock-inintraditionalindustries.

OnAugust11,2024,the"OpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilonAcceleratingtheGreenTransitionofEconomicandSocialDevelopment"emphasizedthatpromotingthegreeninganddecarbonizationofeconomicandsocialdevelopmentisakeylinkinachievinghigh-qualitydevelopmentandafundamentalstrategyforaddressingChina'sresource,environmental,andecologicalissues.OnJuly30,2024,theGeneralOfficeoftheStateCouncilissuedthe"WorkPlanforAcceleratingtheConstructionofaDual-ControlSystemforCarbonEmissions,"signalingtheimplementationphaseofthedual-controlsystemforcarbonemissions.Chinafacesatighttimelineandheavytaskstoachievecarbonpeakandcarbonneutrality,beingthecountrywiththeshortesttimefrompeaktoneutrality,thelargestscaleofcarbon

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Low-carbonTransitionofTraditionalEnergyRegionsinChina

reduction,andthefastestrateofreductionintheworld.Accordingtorelevantresearchbytheprojectteam,in2020,China'skeyindustries(includingpower,steel,cement,andpetrochemicalindustries)hadcarbonlockedinat196billiontons,thehighestamongallcountriesglobally,accountingfor65%ofChina'scarbonbudget,posingasignificantchallengetothedual-carbongoals.Urgentlymanageenergyinfrastructureinadvancetoavoidhigh-carbonlock-in,reducelossesfromstrandedassets,andgraduallytransitionawayfrom

coaldependency.

2.1.3.TheChineseCoalTriangleArea(comprisingtheprovincesofInnerMongolia,Ningxia,Shaanxi,andShanxi)istheworld'slargestcoalenergyconcentrationareaandfacesseveretransitionchallenges.

Therearesignificantdifferencesinthegeographicaldistributionoffossilandnon-fossilenergyresources

inChina.TheCoalTriangleArea,whichincludestheprovincesofInnerMongolia,Ningxia,Shaanxi,andShanxi,isrichincoalandnewenergyresources.In2023,thecoalproductioninthesefourprovincesreached

1.21billiontons,100milliontons,760milliontons,and1.38billiontonsrespectively,accountingfor74.4%ofthecountry'srawcoalproduction.Atthesametime,thelandareaofthisregionaccountsforonlyabout

16.8%ofthenationaltotal,yetithosts28%oftheinstalledwindpowercapacityand15%oftheinstalledsolarpowercapacity,indicatingarichpotentialforwindandsolarresources.Facedwithseveretransitionchallenges,itisnecessarytoadopteffectivemeasurestoreducetheover-exploitationofcoalresources,promotethedevelopmentofcleanenergy,reducegreenhousegasemissions,andenhancetheoveralllevelofregionaldevelopment.Achievinggoalssuchasthecleanutilizationoffossilenergy,thelarge-scaledevelopmentofcleanenergy,thecomprehensiveutilizationofvariousenergysources,theelectrificationof

end-useenergy,andtheintegrationofindustrialenergyisessentialforthesustainabledevelopmentofenergyproduction.

2.2.Overviewofthestudyarea

TheCoalTriangleAreaoccupies16.8%ofthenationallandarea,accountsfor7.48%ofthenationalpopulation(asof2023)andgenerated7.1%ofthenationalGDP(in2023).In2023,thenationalpercapita

GDPwas89,000yuan,whilethepercapitaGDPintheCoalTriangleregion,exceptforInnerMongolia

whereitwashigherthanthenationalaverage,was74,000yuaninShanxi,73,000yuaninNingxia,and85,000yuaninShaanxi,allofwhichwerebelowthenationalaverage.Therefore,inrelativeterms,theper

capitaGDPinShanxiandNingxiawas18%lowerthanthenationalaverage.

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Figure2-1GeographicalLocationMapoftheCoalTriangleArea

3.InternationalandDomesticExperiencesandInsightsonEnergyTransition

Chinaistheworld'slargestproducerandconsumerofcoal,andthushasthehighestgreenhousegasemissionsrelatedtocoal.Coalproductionisstillgrowingandisexpectedtopeakin2027.Atthesametime,Chinaisaworldleaderinrenewableenergyproductionandelectricmobility,suchascleanenergyinvestment.Allthismeansthatthegreentransitioninthecountryhasbeenawin-wingamesofar,bothasregardsitseconomicandemploymenteffects.Thedynamicdevelopmentsinthegreeneconomycameontopofthestillgrowingcoal(orinbroadersensefossilfuel)driveneconomy.Chinawasnotyetconfrontedwithanypotentiallynegativeemploymentorsocialeffectoftheenergytransition.ThisisamajordifferencewhencomparedtoEuropeandthisiswhyexperiencesandpracticesfromEurope–bothpositiveandnegative–canbehelpfulfortheupcomingnewphaseoftheenergytransitioninChina.

3.1.Caseanalysisofinternationalenergytransition

TheEUhasthemostcomprehensiveregulatoryframeworkforthegreentransition,undertheumbrellaoftheEuropeanGreenDealandtherelatedlegalimplementationpackages.Thisframeworkcombinesmarketmechanisms(liketheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem),regulations,standards,incentives,subsidiesandtaxes.Allthisneedstobetranslatedintonationallegislationbythe27memberstates.Thereisalsoalotof

policyco-ordinationtakingplacebetweentheEUandthenationallevel.TheperformanceoftheEUinterms

ofgreenhousegasemissionreductionsisconvincing,ithasachievedanabsolutedecouplingofemissionsfromGDPgrowth.

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Column3-1EUEnergyTransition

Question:

Fiscalpolicy:TheEUneedstospeedupgreeninvestmentnotonlytomeetitsownclimateobjectivesbutalsotofacethechallengeofincreasedinternationalcompetitionforgreenmanufacturing.In2021,theCommissioncalculatedthat,toachievetheEGDobjectives,additionalinvestmentof520billioneurosperyearwouldbeneeded.Theaverageyearlyinvestmentneedisatleast813billioneuros(5.1percentofEUGDP)ifthe2030EUclimatetargetsaretobemet.Giventhecurrentlevelofinvestment,theyearlyEuropeanclimateinvestmentdeficitisthusestimatedat406billioneuros.

Slowprogressinexpandingrenewableenergygeneration:TherelativelyslowprogressinrenewablesdevelopmentintheEUisalsoshownbyIEAdataonrenewablescapacityadditionsandenergycomposition.Afterstagnationin2020,renewablesgenerationcapacityimprovedby20%in2021.TheshareofrenewableenergyintheEUgrewfrom22%in2020to23%in2022.TheIEAnotesthat2020wasanextraordinaryyear,duringwhichconsumptionofnon-renewablesdroppedconsiderablybecauseoflowerenergydemandduringtheCovid-19pandemic,thuspushinguptherenewableenergysources(RES)share.In2021,however,consumptionofnon-renewablesexperiencedarapidrebound,althoughthegrowthofrenewablesremainedconstant.

Fragmentation,complexgovernancemechanismbetweentheEUandnationallevel:Beingapoliticalunion,theEUisalsoaparticularconstruct,notanationstate,nothavingafederalstructureandEUlevelpoliciesandobjectivesareimplementedthroughcomplicatedco-ordinationmechanisms.Climateandenergypolicygovernanceiscomplexandnotalwaystransparent.Thereisasignificantdiversityamongmemberstates.

Solution:

TheEUconsidersitselfasaleaderinclimatepolicy,arolemodelfortherestoftheworldandaregion(continent)withthehighestclimateambition.ItisalsostatedintheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD)launchedin2019thattheEUiscommittedtobecomethefirstworldregiontobecomeclimateneutralby2050.ThisobjectiveisalsoanchoredintheEuropeanClimateLaw,apartoftheEGD.WhiletheEUdoesnotofficiallyacknowledgeitsresponsibilityaslargestcontributortocumulativeglobalemissionsnotwillingtooffergroundforretrospectivelegallossanddamageclaims,inthebackground,thisisonemotiveforadoptingahighambitiondecarbonisationstrategy.

TheEUistheonlyworldregionthathasacomprehensiveandverydetailedlegislativeframeworkforitsdecarbonisationagenda.TheEGDnotonly

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PhasingoutcoalinEUmemberstates.Thephase-outofcoalinenergygenerationisgainingmomentumthroughoutEurope.ThemajorityinEUMemberStateshavesetupaplanwithadeadlinebywhichtheyaretobecomecoal-free.Phasingoutcoalin