韩国2050年航运净零排放路径研究（英文版）

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

SF

solutionsforourclimate

SolutionsforOurClimate(SFOC)isanonprofitorganizationdedicatedtoreducingglobalGHGemissionsandpromotingenergytransition.SFOCisseekingeffectivesolutionstotackletheclimatecrisisthroughvariousmeans,includingresearch,legislation,internationalcooperation,communication,andinitiatingfundamentalchanges.

PublishedSeptember2024

AuthorsJintaeKimlSNUGSESPh.DStudent

SoonyoungKimlSNUGSESPh.DStudent

GeunhaKim|SFOC|geunha.kim@

DesignYeonhuiSeo|SFOC

NatureRhythm

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

TableofContents

Ⅰ.Introduction

4

1.GHGReductionDiscussionsinShipping

4

2.ObjectivesofResearch

5

Ⅱ.ResearchMethodology

6

1.MESSAGEix-KshipModel

6

2.Data

8

3.GHGEmissionsReductionScenarios

13

Ⅲ.AnalysisResults

15

1.TotalSystemCostsandGHGEmissionVolumes

15

2.FuelConsumptionandComposition

17

3.FuelSupply

18

4.VesselAgeCompositionAcrossScenarios

19

5.NewVesselIntroductionScalesAcrossVesselTypes

20

6.InvestmentinNewVessels

21

Ⅳ.Conclusion

23

Appendix

26

References29

4

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

Ⅰ.Introduction

1.GHGReductionDiscussionsinShipping

Morethan90percentofinternationaltradeisseaborne.ThisfigureisevenhigherforSouthKorea.Astunning99.7percentofitsinternationaltradereliesonmaritimetransport.1ShippingisapivotalindustryforglobaltradeandisparticularlysignificantforacountrylikeSouthKoreathatisheavilydependentonexports.

TheInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)isadoptingincreasinglystringentstrategiestoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromshipping.InJuly2023,theIMOrampedupitsgoalfromhalvingGHGemissionsby2050,comparedto2008levels,toachievingnet-zeroGHGemissionsby2050.2Furthermore,thisglobalmaritimeregulatorplanstoadoptamarinefuelstandardasatechnicalelementandaGHGemissionspricingmechanismasaneconomicelementin2025,withtheirenforcementslatedfor2027.

Besides,startingonJanuary1,2024,theEuropeanUnion(EU)expandeditsemissionstradingsystem(ETS)tocoverthemaritimesector.Shipsof5,000grosstonnage(GT)andabovecallingatportswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)arerequiredtopurchaseEUAllowances(EUA)fortheirGHGemissionsinaccordancewiththeEUMonitoring,Reporting,andVerification(EUMRV)MaritimeRegulationandsubmitthemtotheirrespectiveadministeringauthorities.Non-compliancemayresultinpecuniarypenaltiesandthedenialofentrytoportswithintheEEAterritories.3

StricterregulationofGHGemissionsfromshippingisbeingpursuednotonlybytheIMObutalsobyindividualcountriesandregions.Giventhat99.7percentofSouthKorea’simportsandexportsaretransportedbysea,asnotedearlier,thecountryisnaturallysusceptibletoregulatorychangesintheinternationalshippinglandscape.InFebruary2023,theMinistryofOceansandFisheries(MOF)announcedanet-zerostrategythatseekstoreduceGHGemissions60percentby2030,80percentby2040,and100percentby2050,allcomparedwith2008levels.ThisambitiousstrategyissupplementedbyactionplansthatareannuallyreleasedaimedatpromotingthedevelopmentandadoptionofKorean-stylegreenships(K-ships),whichleverageSouthKorea’sadvancedmaritimetechnologiesandstrengthsandcatertothecountry’sspecificneeds.Tomaintainitsleadershipinshippingandrelatedindustries,thismaritimepowerhousemustformulateandimplementproactiveandpreemptivepoliciesalignedwithinternationalshippingregulationsandmarketconditions.

1PWCKorea(2023).“InsightsintotheFutureofShippingbySouthKorea,aNewMaritimePowerhouse“p.4,p.6.

2AimstoreduceannualGHGemissionsfromshipping20-30percentby2030,70-80percentby2040,and100percentby2050,comparedto2008levels.

3KoreanRegister(2024).“InitialimplementationguidelinesfollowingtheintroductionofEUETSinthemaritimesector“.

5

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

2.ObjectivesofResearch

Today,environmentalregulationsareprogressivelymorphingintoeconomicconstraints,therebycreatingnewtradebarriers.Amidstthistransformativeperiod,thecallfordecarbonizationhasreachedunprecedentedheights.Particularlyforexport-andimport-driveneconomieslikeSouthKorea,decarbonizationisofparamountimportancetoremaingloballycompetitive.Thisendeavorrequiresaprofoundunderstandingoftheswiftlyevolvingenvironmentalregulationsonboththedomesticandinternationalfronts,apreciseassessmentofthecurrentstateofthecountry’smaritimeindustry,anddeepinsightsintofuelusepathways.Todrawtheseunderstandingsandinsights,thisstudyemploysbottom-upenergysystemmodelingtoscrutinizeSouthKorea’spresentmaritimedecarbonizationstrategiesandassesstheirfeasibility,alongwiththecountry’smaritimecarbonreductiongoals.Thisstudyalsointendstoextracttechnologicalandpolicyimplicationsnecessaryforadecarbonizedfuture.

ThisstudydistinguishesitselffrompriorstudiesonglobalmaritimeshippingbyfocusingonSouthKorea’soceangoingmerchantfleetandderivinginsightsspecifictothecountry’sshippingdecarbonizationstrategies.Moreover,emissionsareestimatedbyabottom-upmodeldevisedspecificallyfortheSouthKoreanshippingsector,basedonactualdatafromindividualshipscategorizedbyvesseltype,leadingtogreateranalyticalprecision.Inaddition,advancementsinshiptechnologyandapplicablealternativeenergysourcesareconsideredfordifferenttypesofships,enhancingthegranularityoftheresearch.Thestudyalsoaccountsforallforeseeablefutureenergysources—includingLNG,methanol,andammonia—andtheirproductionmethods,therebyaddingsignificantdepthtotheanalysis.

6

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

Ⅱ.ResearchMethodology

1.MESSAGEix-KshipModel

TheMESSAGE(ModelforEnergySupplyStrategyAlternativesandtheirGeneralEnvironmentalImpact)frameworkisanadvancedmathematicaltoolengineeredtoguidethedevelopmentofenergyandenvironmentalplansandpolicies.Thiscomprehensivemodelingframeworkcoverstheentirecontinuumofenergysupplyandconsumption.MESSAGEmodelmayhelpformulateandanalyzeplansonhowenergyshouldbeproducedandconsumedforandbytheSouthKoreanmaritimesector.Employingabottom-upapproach,MESSAGEtracksenergyproductionandconsumption.Inthelanguageoftechnologicalunits,itdescribesparticularjourneysofenergy,startingwithitsextractionandimportation—wheretheenergyoriginates(e.g.,crudeoil,naturalgas,renewablesources),whatformsofsecondaryenergyitisconvertedinto(e.g.,electricity,petroleumproducts),andhowitisultimatelyconsumed(e.g.,heating,transportation,lighting).Thissequentialrepresentationaidsinunderstandingtheinterconnectionsamongvariousenergyresourcesandtechnologies.Italsoenablesnumericalanalysesofthelong-termeconomicandenvironmentalramificationsofpolicychoicesmadeatspecificpointsintime.

OneofthekeyfeaturesofMESSAGEisitsuseofdynamiclinearprogramming(DLP).Thismethodologypinpointsthemostcost-effectivestrategiesbyaccountingforhowvariousconstraintsevolveovertime.Forinstance,aMESSAGEmodelcanhelpdeterminewhenandwhichnewtechnologiestoimplementtoreducefuturecarbonemissions.Recently,amoreadvancedversionnamedMESSAGEixwasreleased.Thisupdatedversionallowsuserstomanageinputdata,equations,andoutputsmoreeasily,effectively,andtransparently.

Inthisstudy,wehavebuilttheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel,asdepictedinTable1.Itisdesignedtoanalyzetheoperational-phaseenergyconsumptionofSouthKorea’soceangoingfleetand,withlongertimehorizons,determinetheappropriatetimingandscalefordeployinglow-carbonandzero-carbonshipsinalignmentwithclimatepolicies.

[Table1]AnOverviewoftheMESSAGEix-KshipModel

ModelType

Anenergysystemmodel(technology-basedbottom-upapproach)

GeographicalScope

Operational-phaseenergyconsumptionofSouthKorea’soceangoingnationalfleet

AnalyticalConcept

Partialequilibriumanalysisonhowtomeetexogenousdemandforcargotransportatminimalcost

ModelingPeriod

Historicalreferenceyear:2008

Baseyear:2022

Projectionperiods:2025,2030,…,2070(5-yeartimeslices)

AnalyticalMethod

Costminimizationanalysiswithintertemporalchoicesavailable

Scenarios

Climatepolicy–impositionofannualcarbonemissionconstraints

7

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

Thereferenceenergysystemofanenergysystemmodelencompassesalltheenergytechnologies,commodities,levels,anddemandthatthemodelconsiders.Figure1showsthereferenceenergysystemfortheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel,whichistheenergysystemmodelforthisstudy.Itfeaturestechnologiesforsixtypesoffuels—heavyfueloil(HFO),naturalgas,biofuels,methanol,ammonia,andhydrogen—thatareusedtodelivercargotransportservices(usefulenergyservices)acrosstentypesofships.Owingtospatialconstraints,thesixfueltechnologiesarespelledoutonlyforbulkcarriers,whilefortheothertypesofships,theyaresimplynumericallyindicated.LNGandLPGships,whichtransportliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)andliquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG),respectively,areassumedtouseonlytraditionalfuels(HFOandLNG),guidedbytechnological,economic,andsafetystandardsandregulations.Thesystemalsoincorporatesagranularclassificationoffuels—gray,blue,andgreen—dependingontheproductionmethodinitsdepictionoffinalenergysupplytovessels.(seeAppendixTable1)

[Figure1]EnergySystemfortheMESSAGEix-KshipModel

TheMESSAGEix-KshipenergysystemmodelfocusesonanalyzingenergyconsumptionandGHGemissionsduringshipoperations,deliberatelyexcludingfuelconsumptionbyauxiliaryenginesandemissionsfromnon-operationalphasessuchasdockingandmooring.ToensurereliableandmeaningfuloutcomesforSouthKorea’sinternationalmaritimesector,whichemploystheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel,fuelsupplyisbrieflyoutlinedoverthetimehorizonofthisstudy.

8

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

2.Data

DataMatchingResults

TogatherfoundationaldataforSouthKorea’soceangoingfleet,whichformstheintendedscopeofthisstudy,weusedthe2023ShippingStatisticsfromtheKoreaShipowners’AssociationandtheWorldFleetRegisterfromClarksonsResearch(ClarksonsWFR).Giventhedifferingclassificationsystemsofthesetwosources,amorenuancedclassificationframeworkisdevelopedtoensuredataharmonization.Thisdatamatchingoperationleadstotheselectionof898SouthKoreanflaggedoceangoingvessels,eachwithatleast5,000GT.ThisselectioncloselyalignswiththescopeofvesselscoveredbytheMOFdecarbonizationstrategy,whichindicatesthatourmatchingresultsaccuratelymirrorthecompositionofthenationalfleet.

AlookattheoverallfleetcompositionrevealsavarieddistributionofshiptypesandageswithinSouthKorea’snationalfleet.Bulkcarriersformthelargestsegment,followedbycontainershipsandchemicaltankers.Thereisamarkedvarianceintheagedistributionacrossdifferentshiptypes.Notably,theproportionofshipsbuiltbefore2006,whicharenearingtheirreplacement,ishigheramongcontainershipsandchemicaltankersthanamongtherestofthefleet.Chemicaltankers,LNGcarriers,generalcargoships(breakbulkcarriers),andrefrigeratedcargoshipsshowpronouncedagedifferenceswithinthesameshipcategories.Thevariedcross-categoryproportionsandtheintra-categoryagedisparitiesunderscoretheneedtoconsiderthereplacementcyclesandmethodsforindividualships.

[Figure2]CumulativeAgeDistributionofDifferentShipTypes

Unit:perVessel

2017andbeyond

2012-2016

2007-2011

2006andbefore

9

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

VesselData

Annualtotaloperatingdistancesandcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsacrossvariousshiptypescanbeconfirmedusingshipdata.Bulkcarriers,whichconstitutethelargestfleet,coverthegreatestannualdistances,followedbycontainershipsandpurecarcarriers(PCC).Whilecarbondioxideemissionpatternsgenerallycorrespondtosailingdistances,containershipsandtankers—crudeoiltankers,LNGtankers,chemicaltankers,producttankers—emitsignificantlymorecarbondioxideemissionsrelativetotheirseamiles.Thishighlightsthatwhiletraveldistanceisamajorfactorincarbondioxideemissions,thetypeofshipalsomakesadifference.

[Figure3]AnnualOperatingDistancesandCO2EmissionEstimatesAcrossShipTypes

EstimatedCO2AnnualTonnes(Unit:천tCO2)

AnnualDistanceTravelled(Unit:Gm)

InvestmentandFixedCosts(CostStructureConsiderations)

MESSAGE(ix),abottom-upenergysystemframework,makesdecisionsbasedoncostanalytics.Thisstudydelineatesthreeprimarycostcategories:investmentcosts,operatingandmaintenanceexpenses(orsimplyoperatingexpenses),andvariablecosts.InvestmentcostsareinformedbytheClarksonsnewbuildingpriceindex.Foroperatingexpenses(OPEX),the2022averageexpensesbyshiptypefoundinShipOperatingCostsAnnualReviewandForecast(Drewry,2023)areused.Variablecostsincludefuelcostsandnon-fuelancillarycostssuchasportandcargocharges.Fuelcostsarecalculatedbymultiplyingtraveldistanceswiththerespectivefuelcoefficients,whilenon-fuelcostestimatesarepeggedat20percentofthefuelcosts,basedonpriorresearch(Guetal.,2022).

10

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

CargoVolumeProjections

Ourmodel’sreferenceyearcargovolumeisestimatedbymultiplyingthe2022deadweighttonnes(DWT)ofeachshiptypebytherespectiveoperatingdistancebasedontheClarksonsWFR.Futuredemandforcargotransportupto2050isthenprojectedusingcargotype-specificportthroughputforecastsbytheKoreaMaritimeInstitute(KMI).Figure4illustratesthecargovolumeprojectionsusedintheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel.Thedataindicatesdominantproportionsofbulkcarriers,containerships,andcrudeoiltankers,withthecontainercargovolumegrowingatafasterratethantheothershiptypes.

[Figure4]MESSAGEix-KshipCargoVolumeProjections

CharacteristicsandPriceOutlookforMarineFuels

TheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthemarinefuelsconsideredinthisstudyaresummarizedinTable2.LNG,notedforitslowcarbondioxideemissionsandtechnicalreliabilityduringoperation,faceschallengessuchasmethaneslipandpricevolatility.DisparitiesinLNGbunkeringinfrastructureacrossregionsalsoremainadrawback.LPGemitslesscarbondioxideandcanbeusedtofuelitscarriers,buthasrestricteduseforothervessels.Methanol,whileeasytohandleandcompatiblewithexistinginfrastructure,suffersfromlowenergydensityandhighretrofittingcosts.Biofuelscanbeeasilyintegratedintoexistingfacilitieswithsimpleretrofittingefforts,buttheirproductionemitscarbondioxide.Hydrogenandammoniaarecarbon-freeandthereforeholdpromise,buthighcosts,formidabletechnologicalchallenges,andadearthofinfrastructureremaintoweringobstacles.

11

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

[Table2]SummaryTableofCharacterizationofMarineFuels

Fuel

Pros

Cons

LNG

•Highstabilityinuseandwell-establishedreliabletechnology

•Constructionofbunkeringinfrastructureinprogress

•Fugitivemethaneemissionsandmethaneslip;fossilfuel-based

•Inter-regioninfrastructuredisparities

•Pricevolatility

LPG

•Canbeusedasfuelduringtransitascargo

•LimitedusesoutsideLPGcarriers

•Fossilfuel-based

•Price-drivenincentives

Methanol

•EasyhandlingrelativetoLNG

•FewerGHGemissions

•Useofexistinginfrastructure

•Complexityofretrofittingandlowenergydensity

•Highshort-termcosts

•Productionlimitations

Biofuels

•Useofexistingfacilities

•Usableaftersimpleretrofitting

•Environmentalrisksfromfuelproduction,e.g.,

significantcarbonemissionsandlanduseimpact

Hydrogen

•Zeroemissionsofpollutantsandabundantavailability

•Heavytechnologyinvestment

•Efficientfuelcells

•Energy-intensiveproductionprocess

•Lackoflarge-scalebunkeringinfrastructure

•Enormousstoragecosts(-253°C)

Ammonia

•Activeproductionandtrade

•Zero-carbonfuel(greenammonia)

•Energy-intensive

•LowenergydensityrelativetoHFO

•Toxicandcorrosive

•NOxemissions

Source:Clarksons.AlternativeFuelsandESTs

FuelcostsareestimatedusingforecastsfromtheMærskMc-KinneyMøllerCenterforZeroCarbonShippingandtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA,2021).Figure5showcasesthefuelpriceprojectionsusedintheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel.Acomparisonbetweenthe2025and2050fuelpriceestimatesrevealsthattechnologicaladvancementsareexpectedtopulldownthecostsofnaturalgas,hydrogen,andmethanolfuels.Despitethesetechnologicalstrides,therankingorderofcost-effectivegreenfuelsremainsunchanged:greenhydrogenatthefront,followedbygreenammoniaandgreenmethanol.Particularly,therelativelymodestdeclineinthepriceofgreenmethanolcanbeattributedtoitsrelianceongreenhydrogenasaprimaryfeedstock.

12

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

[Figure5]FuelCostsProjectionsfor2025and2050

HistoricalGHGEmissions

ThisstudyuseshistoricalvolumesofGHGemissionsaskeyinputstogeneratescenario-specificemissionconstraints.TheMinistryofOceansandFisheriesreportsthatin2008,SouthKorea’semissionsfromshippingtotaled28MtCO2eq.Furthermore,2023UNCTADdataindicatesthatemissionslinkedtoSouthKoreashipownershipstoodat24MtCO2eqin2012,risingtoroughly28MtCO2eqby2022.

DetaileddataontheSouthKoreaninternationalshippingsector’senergyconsumptionandGHGemissionsduringtheoperationalphaseisfarfromreadilyavailable.Thisstudycircumventsthisdifficultybyfirstlyidentifyingafleetof898SouthKorean-flaggedocean-goingmerchantvessels,basedontheClarksonsWFR.Itthenreverse-calculatestheirfuelconsumptioninnetcalorificvaluesonthebasisoftheircarbondioxideemissions.Finally,thestudymultipliesthefuelconsumptionestimatesbytheemissionfactors(EF)forcarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4),andnitrousoxide(N2O)andtheirrespectiveglobalwarmingpotentials(GWP)toobtainthetotalandsegment-specificemissionsincarbondioxideequivalentterms.Thesefindings,segmentedbyvesseltypeandGHGcategory,arepresentedinTable3.

13

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

[Table3]2022GHGEmissionsbyVesselTypeandbyGHG

GHG

VesselType

CO2(tCO2eq)

CH4(tCO2eq)

N2O(tCO2eq)

LNGship

3,281,630

173,225

47,239

Container

6,410,116

2,985

98,560

Crude

2,945,376

31,180

44,728

Bulk

6,719,395

3,129

103,316

PCC

1,993,898

928

30,658

LPGship

773,441

360

11,892

GeneralCargo

369,344

172

5,679

Reefer

192,641

90

2,962

ChemicalTanker

1,932,872

900

29,719

ProductTanker

1,394,571

649

21,443

Total

26,013,285

213,618

396,196

3.GHGEmissionsReductionScenarios

ThisstudyconstructsGHGemissionsreductionscenariosinreferencetothetargetsestablishedbytheIMOandtheSouthKoreanMinistryofOceansandFisheries(MOF).Specifically,thescenariosemployfiguresfromtheIMOandMOFfortheirreductiontargets,whiletheirassumptionsonefficiencyimprovementsareinformedbytheannualpaceofcarbonintensityreductionpresentedinTheFourthIMOGreenhouseGasStudy(2020),whichrangesfrom1to2percentperyear.

[Table4]OverviewofGHGEmissionsReductionScenarios

Scenarios

Efficiency

Improvement4

ReductionTargets

(percentagereduction)

Remarks

Baseline(BAU)

1%

(everyyear)

Noreduction

Animaginaryfuturewithoutanyclimatepolicyintervention

IMO_Net50

1%

(everyyear)

50%by2050relativeto2008

InitialIMOStrategyadoptedbyMEPC72in2018

(72ndsessionoftheMarineEnvironmentProtectionCommittee)

IMO_Net0

2%

(everyyear)

30%by2030relativeto200880%by2040relativeto2008100%by2050relativeto2008

RevisedIMOGHGStrategyadoptedbyMEPC80in2023

MOF_Net0

2%

(everyyear)

60%by2030relativeto200880%by2040relativeto2008100%by2050relativeto2008

MOF’s2023strategyfordecarbonizationofinternationalshipping

4ThisstudydoesnotregardtherepairandretrofittingofoutmodedshipsastechnologiestodirectlyreduceGHGemissionsbutasmeansofefficiencyimprovement.

14

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

[Figure6]Scenario-SpecificGHGEmissionsReductionPathways

30%reductionfrom2008

60%reductionfrom2008

80%reductionfrom2008

Figure6succinctlyillustratestheGHGemissionconstraintsfortheindividualscenarios.Baselineemissionsin2008areassumedat28.8MtCO2eq,andthereductiontargetsbetweenthekeyyearsarepresumedtofollowlineartrajectories.Althoughthe2018IMOstrategy,whichaimedfora50-percentreductionby2050relativeto2008,hasbeensupersededbythe2023IMOnet-zerostrategy,thisstudystillexaminesitasaseparatescenario(ScenarioIMO_Net50).Theinclusionofthisscenarioaimstoanalyzeitsfuelcompositionandrelativelylenienttargetsincontrasttothoseofthemorestringentnet-zeroscenarios.ScenarioIMO_Net0andScenarioMOF_Net0represent,respectively,the2023IMOGHGemissionsreductionstrategyandthe2023MOFinternationalshippingdecarbonizationstrategy.Theseambitiousstrategiessharethesameultimategoalofnetzeroby2050butdivergeintheirpathwaysuntil2040.TheMOFstrategyprojectsafasterreductionduringthe2030-2040period(thedifferentialisestimatedat64.35MtCO2eq,asdepictedbythetriangularareainthegraph).

15

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

Ⅲ.AnalysisResults

1.TotalSystemCostsandGHGEmissionVolumes

Inthisstudy,totalsystemcostsrepresentthecumulativeexpensesoverthe2026-2050periodascalculatedbytheMESSAGEix-Kshipmodel,whichencompassesinvestments,operatingexpenses(OPEX),fuelcosts,andfixedcosts.Forthebaselinescenario(ScenarioBAU),thetotalsystemcostisprojectedatapproximatelyUSD163billion.InScenarioIMO_Net50,thecostincreasestoUSD173billion,andunderScenarioIMO_Net0,itrisesfurthertoUSD193billion.Theserisesincostsmirrortheescalatingrigoroftheirrespectivereductiontargets.

ThetotalsystemcostculminatesatUSD198billionunderScenarioMOF_Net0,drivenbyitsambitiousintermediatetargetofa60-percentcutby2030.Forcontext,ScenarioIMO_Net0aimsfora30-percentcutby2030,withbothIMO_Net0andMOF_Net0targetingan80-percentcurtailmentby2040.ThisstudyassumesthatunderbothScenariosIMO_Net0andMOF_Net0,carboncanbecapturedthroughdirectaircapture(DAC)technologyatacostofUSD1,000pertonne,aidingtheirjourneytowardszeroemissionsby2050.ThisassumptionabouttheuseofDACtechnologyresultsinanadditionalestimatedexpenditureofapproximatelyUSD10billion.

[Figure7]TotalSystemCostsbyScenario

CostsexceptforDACDACCosts

16

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

RegardingGHGemissions,thebaselinescenario(ScenarioBAU)startsat26.31MtCO2eqin2022,withemissionsincreasingprogressivelyto29.96MtCO2eqby2050.ScenarioIMO_Net50seesadecreaseinemissionsstartingin2025toreach14.30MtCO2eq,halfthe2008level,by2050.ThemoreambitiousIMOscenario(IMO_Net0)projectsemissionsat20.02MtCO2eqby2030,withagoalofachievingcarbonneutralityby2050.ScenarioMOF_Net0sharesthesame2050goalwithitsIMOnet-zerocounterpart,butfollowsamoredrasticreductionpath,droppingemissionsto11.44MtCO2eqby2030andreachingnetzeroby2050.(seeFigure6)

ThevolumesofGHGcaptureacrossthethreescenarioswithpolicyinterventionareillustratedinFigure8.ScenarioIMO_Net50leadsincarboncapture,withrecordsof2.07MtCO2eqin2040and5.43MtCO2eqin2050.Thisscenarioleveragesship-basedcarboncaptureandstorage(SCCS)technologyaboardvesselsfueledbyHFOorLNG,insteadofDACtechnology.Incontrast,ScenariosIMO_Net0andMOF_Net0,drivenbytheswiftexpansionofecofriendlyfleets,capturefewerGHGs.Specifically,ScenarioIMO_Net0captures0.40MtCO2eqin2040and2.82MtCO2eqin2050,andScenarioMOF_Net0sequestrates0.4MtCO2eqin2040and2.74MtCO2eqin2050.

[Figure8]GHGEmissionsandCapturesbyScenario

Figure9showcasesthevesseltype-specificemissionvolumesacrossthefourscenarios.BulkcarriersemitthemostGHGs,followedbycontainerships,crudeoiltankers,LNGtankers,chemicaltankers,productcarriers,andpurecarcarriers(PCCs).Theyear2050seesonlytwotypesofvesselsemitGHGsundertheIMO_Net0andMOF_Net0scenarios:LNGandLPGcarriers.Thisisbecausethesetwocategoriesofshipsareassumedtouseonlyconventionalfuels(HFOandnaturalgas)inconsiderationoftechnological,economic,andsafetyregulations.

17

AStudyonSouthKorea’s2050NetZeroPathwayforShipping

[Figure9]VesselType-SpecificGHGEmissionVolumesAcrossScenarios

2.FuelConsumptionandComposition

ThefinalenergyconsumptionbyenergysourceinSouthKorea’sinternationalshippingsectoracrossthefourscenariosareillustratedfordifferenttimeslicesinFigure10.Underthebusinessasusual(BAU)scenario,heavyfueloil(HFO)andLNGremain,albeitwithcontrastingtrends:HFOusegraduallydeclinesto7,546ktoein2050whileLNGconsumptionprogressivelyrisesovertimeandhits1,888ktoein2050.TheIMO_Net50scenariofeaturesadrasticdropinHFOconsumption,alongsideuptakesinLNG,methanol,ammonia,andbiofuels.By2050,HFOusagesharplyfallsto