OECD -大趋势与社会保护的未来 Megatrends and the Future of Social Protection

MegatrendsandtheFutureofSocialProtection

》OECD

MegatrendsandtheFutureofSocialProtection

》OECD

BETTERPOLlcIESFORBETTERLIVES

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Foreword

Sociodemographic,economic,technologicalandenvironmentalchangeswillaffectboththeneedfor,andthefinancingof,socialprotectionsystemsinOECDcountriesoverthecomingdecades.Toprovideadequateandsustainablesupport,theshape,sizeandfundingofsocialprogrammeswillneedtoanticipateandadapttothese“megatrends”.

Currenteconomicchallenges–includinglabourshortagesandthecost-of-livingcrisis–broughtforwardtherepercussionsofmegatrendsthathadbeenexpectedinthemediumterm.Labourshortagesarestartingtocurtaileconomicactivityandpublicserviceprovisionevenbeforethefulleffectofdemographicchangehassetin.Similarly,plannedclimatechangemitigationpolicieswillresultinhigherenergypricesinthecomingyears.However,thesuddenanddramaticspikeinenergypricesinmanyOECDcountriesfollowingRussia’swarofaggressionagainstUkrainedemonstratedhowkeenlyenergypricerisesarefeltbyhouseholdsandfirms.Onceagain,governmentsmobilisedsignificantresourcestocushiontheimpacts,butgoingforward,targetingiskey,givenlimitedfiscalspacecomingoutoftheCOVID-19pandemicandhigherinterestratesthatconstrainpublicborrowing.

Thisreport–MegatrendsandtheFutureofSocialProtection-formspartoftheOECD’sFutureofSocialProtectionprogrammeofwork,overseenbytheOECDEmployment,LabourandSocialAffairsCommittee.ItpresentsabroadstocktakingofkeymegatrendsimpactingthefutureofsocialprotectioninOECDcountries–ageingpopulations,changingpatternsoflaboursupply,newandemergingemploymentforms,changesinhouseholdcompositionandunpaidwork,theeffectsofnewtechnologiesonemploymentandwages,aswellastheeffectsofclimatechangeandthenetzerotransition–withaneyetowardsinformingfuturereforms.

Thereportwasco-ordinatedbyRaphaelaHyeeandValerieFreyintheOECDDirectorateforEmployment,LabourandSocialAffairsunderthesupervisionofStefanoScarpetta(DirectorofEmployment,LabourandSocialAffairs),MarkPearson(DeputyDirectorofEmployment,LabourandSocialAffairs)andMonikaQueisser(HeadoftheOECDSocialPolicyDivision).TheauthorsareRaphaelaHyee(Chapters1,3,4,5and6),ValerieFrey(Chapters1,4and6),JasminThomas(Chapters3and4),AndrewReilly(Chapter2)andMarissaPlouin(Chapter6).

Theprojectwasco-fundedbyEmploymentandSocialDevelopmentCanadaandtheBelgianFederalPublicServiceSocialSecurity.TheOECDauthorswouldliketothankDelegatestotheOECDWorkingPartyonSocialPolicy,aswellasOECDcolleaguesWillemAdema,AliBargu,HervéBoulhol,WouterDeTavernier,BoglárkaDely,MaximeLadaique,MaciejLis,RicardaMilstein,AnaLlenaNozal,MarkPearson,StefanoScarpetta,MonikaQueisserandotherSocialPolicyDivisionandHealthDivisioncolleagues,fortheirusefulfeedback.Marie-AurélieElkurdandHannaVarkkiprovidedvaluablepublicationsupport.

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Tableofcontents

Foreword3

Executivesummary7

1Overview10

1.1.Populationsareageingquickly11

1.2.Populationageingsqueezessocialprotectionsystemsfromboththecontributionandthe

expenditureangles12

1.3.Women’slabourforceattachmentcontinuedtostrengthenbothattheextensiveand

intensivemargin 12

1.4 whilemenincreasinglyworkpart-time12

1.5.Labourmarketslack,leisurepreferencesandcaregivinglikelycontributetotheincreasing

incidenceofpart-timeworkamongmen13

1.6.Strengtheningfemalelabourforceattachmentbroadensthefinancingbaseforsocial

protectionsystems,butatrendtowardspart-timeworkmayundermineit13

1.7.Overall,self-employmentisonadownwardtrajectory,butconcernsaboutnewand

emergingformsofworkloomlarge13

1.8.Self-employedworkersstillhaveinsufficientaccesstosocialprotection14

1.9.Automationdoesnot(yet)seemtohaveledto(net)jobdestruction14

1.10.Productivitygrowththroughtechnologicalprogressisessentialforthesustainablefunding

ofsocialprotection14

1.11.Womencontinuetocarrythebruntofunpaidcarework,andinsufficientcare

infrastructuresremainabarriertowomen’semployment15

1.12.Householdformsarechanging,withimplicationsforprivaterisk-pooling15

1.13.Toreachthenetzerotarget,carbonpriceswillhavetoincreasesubstantially–an

unpopularpolicy15

1.14.Whiletheirrelativeimpactishigheronlow-incomehouseholds,high-incomehouseholds

wouldpaymorecarbontaxinabsoluteterms16

1.15.Improvinghousingqualitytolowerenergyconsumption16

1.16.Aroundoneinfiveworkersmaybeaffectedbythegreentransition17

1.17.Theneedforincomereplacementandactivelabourmarketpolicies17

1.18.Supportingaffordablehousingduringthegreentransition17

References18

2Ageingpopulationsputpressureonsocialprotectionsystems19

2.1.OECDcountriesareageingquickly20

2.2.Retirementageshavebeenincreasing23

2.3.Povertyratestendtobehigheratolderages25

2.4.Whatimplicationsforsocialprotection?26

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References27

Notes27

3Changingpatternsoflaboursupply28

3.1.Long-termtrendsinlabourforceparticipationandpart-timework29

3.2.Trendsinself-employment35

References39

Annex3.A.Additionalstatistics42

Notes43

4Changingsocieties,changingsocialpolicies44

4.1.Motherhoodpenaltiesmeeteldercaredemands45

4.2.Changingfamilystructuresandtheneedtoadapttax-benefitsystems48

4.3.Peopleincreasinglylivealone,facingahighereconomicrisk50

4.4.Whatimplicationsforsocialprotection?52

References54

Notes55

5Technologicalchangeandthelabourmarket56

5.1.Automationdoesnot(yet)seemtohaveledto(net)jobdestruction57

5.2.ButwillAIbedifferent?58

5.3.Sofar,thereisnohardevidenceonworkerdisplacementbyAI58

5.4 andevidenceonwagesismixedslantingtowardspositive59

5.5.Workersareoptimisticregardingtheeffectofnewtechnologiesontheirworkinglives61

5.6.Whatimplicationsforsocialprotection?63

References63

Notes66

6Climatechangeandthefutureofsocialprotection67

6.1.Carbonpricingandhouseholdbudgets69

6.2.Employmenteffectsofthegreentransition74

6.3.Relocatinghomesandlivelihoodsinresponsetoclimatechange78

References79

Notes82

FIGURES

Figure2.1.FertilityrateshavebeendecliningacrossOECDcountries20

Figure2.2.Projectedlifeexpectancyatage65,bytheyear2065,inyears21

Figure2.3.Lifeexpectancygainshavebeensmalleroverthelastdecade21

Figure2.4.Thedemographicold-agetoworking-ageratioisincreasingatafastpace22

Figure2.5.Theworking-agepopulationwilldeclineinmanyOECDcountries23

Figure2.6.Currentandfuturenormalretirementagesforamanwithafullcareerfromage2224

Figure2.7.AverageeffectiveageoflabourmarketexitinOECDcountries,1972-202225

Figure2.8.Expectedlifeyearsafterlabourmarketexit,OECDaverage1972-202225

Figure2.9.Incomepovertyratesbyage:oldervs.totalpopulation,2020orlatestavailableyear26

Figure3.1.Women’slabourforceattachmentcontinuestostrengthen30

Figure3.2.Differencesacrossdefinitionsofpart-timeemploymentrates31

Figure3.3.Thelinkbetweenincreasesinwomen’slabourforceparticipationandpart-timeworkisweak32

Figure3.4.Whilemen’spart-timeemploymentratesincreasedinnearlyallcountries,thepictureismore

mixedforwomen33

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Figure3.5.Theincidenceofself-employmentisdeclininginmanyOECDcountries36

Figure4.1.Despitegainsovertime,mothersofdependentchildrenremainmuchlesslikelytoworkthanother

women46

Figure4.2.Mothersofdependentchildrenaremorelikelytoworkpart-timethanotherwomeninmost

OECDcountries47

Figure4.3.Over1in10olderindividualshavedailycaregivingresponsibilitiesandtheburdenofcaregiving

largelyfallsonwomen48

Figure4.4.Childrenincreasinglylikelytolivewithtwounmarried,cohabitatingparents49

Figure4.5.AcrossnearlyallOECDcountriesandallagegroups,peopleareincreasinglylikelytolivealone51

Figure4.6.Single-adulthouseholdsbothwithandwithoutchildrenarethemostlikelytobeatriskofpoverty52

Figure5.1.Peoplegenerallyexpectthattechnologywillhelpthemintheirjobsmorethanitwillhurtthem61

Figure5.2.Higherlevelsofeducationandincomeareassociatedwithstrongerbeliefsinboththepotential

positiveandnegativeimpactsoftechnology62

Figure6.1.MostpeopleinOECDcountriesareworriedaboutclimatechange68

Figure6.2.Energyandfoodcostsaretopconcernswhenconsideringeconomiceffectsofclimatechange

mitigation71

Figure6.3.Bothgreen-drivenandgreenhousegasintensiveoccupationsaremorewidespreadinruralthanin

urbanareas76

AnnexFigure3.A.1.Theincidenceofpart-timeworkamongprime-agedandlate-careerwomenfellinalmost

allcountries42

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Executivesummary

Sociodemographic,economic,technologicalandenvironmentalchangeswillaffecttheformandfundingofsocialprotectioninthecomingdecades.ThisreportpresentsastocktakingofmegatrendsimpactingsocialprotectionsystemsinOECDcountries.

Populationageingsqueezessocialprotectionfrombothcontributionandexpenditureangles

FertilityrateshavebeendecliningfordecadesandarebelowthereplacementrateinalmostallOECDcountries.Atthesametime,lifeexpectancyisrising.Thesetrendsimplyarapidincreaseinthenumberofover65-year-olds,adeclineintheworking-agepopulationandincreasingexpenditureonpensions,health-andlong-termcare.Countrieshaverespondedbyraisingstatutoryretirementages,whichshouldbeunderpinnedbymeasuresenablinglongercareers.

Women’sdisproportionateprovisionofunpaidcarecontributestotheirlowerlabourforceparticipationandearnings.Ifformalchild-andlong-termcareremainunderprovided,unpaidlong-termcareobligationswilllikelyfurtherimpedewomen’semploymentatatimewhenafullworkforceisessential.Theshareofadultslivingalone–withanassociatedhigherpovertyrisk–isalsorising.

Women’slabourforceattachmentstrengthens,whilemenincreasinglyworkpart-time

Women’slabourforceparticipationrategrewfrom58%in1995to66%in2022,onaverage,acrossOECDcountries,whiletheshareofwomenworkingpart-timeisonadownwardtrajectory,decliningfrom23%in1995to20%in2022.

Menremainmuchlesslikelytoworkpart-timethanwomen.Nevertheless,men’spart-timeraterosefrom6%to7%,onaverage,sincethelate1990s.Risesinpart-timeworkwereparticularlystrikingintheNetherlands(8percentagepoints),Finland(7percentagepoints),andKorea,GermanyandAustria(6percentagepoints).Increasesinpart-timeratesamongmenandwomenarepartlydrivenbyincreasingeducationalenrolmentofyoungpeople,butprime-agedmen’spart-timeratesalsoincreased.

Labourmarketslack,caregivingorleisurepreferences?

Men’spart-timeratesacceleratedwiththeGreatFinancialCrisis(GFC),inlinewithindicatorsofunderemployment.However,whileunderemploymentfellwiththeeconomicupturn,men’spart-timeratedidnotreturntopre-GFClevels.Menmayhavecurtailedworktoparticipateinunpaidcare,butthisisdifficulttoassesswithavailabledata.Workersmayalsoincreasinglyvalueleisureaswagesincrease.Thisisconsistentwithpart-timeworkincreasingmostinhigher-incomecountries.Whilewomen’srisinglabour

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forceparticipationalleviateslabourshortagesandimprovestheirsocialprotectionentitlements,therisingincidenceofpart-timeworkamongmenhastheoppositeeffect.Shouldthistrendcontinue,itcoulddepressaggregatelaboursupplyandaffectthefinancialstabilityofpensionsystems.

Concernsaboutnewandemergingformsofworkloomlarge

Self-employmenthasbeenonaslowdeclinethroughouttheOECDsince1950.Despiteconcernsthatthenumberofindependentcontractors,inparticularplatformworkers,isrising,evidenceindicatesthatonlyasmallshareofworkersareaffected,andthatearningsoftensupplementotherincome.

Self-employedworkershavelessaccesstosocialprotection,andthereforeoftenrelyongeneral-revenuefundedbenefitsintheeventofincomeloss.Betteraligningcontributionsandbenefitsacrossemploymentformsalsohelpstopreventemployersloweringlabourcostsbychoosingworkarrangementswithfewersocialprotectionentitlements.

Automationhasnotyetledto(net)jobdestruction,andtechnology-drivenproductivitygrowthcansupportsocialprotectionfunding

RecentadvancesinroboticsandArtificialIntelligence(AI)havebeenaccompaniedbyconcernsaboutworkerdisplacement.Newtechnologiesmayactaslaboursubstitutesorcompliments.Technologicalprogressischangingtheoccupationalcompositionoftheworkforce,butthereisnoevidenceyetpointingtonetjobdestruction.Evidenceonwagesismixed-advancesinroboticsseemtohavesomewhatdepressedthewagesofaffectedworkers,whileAIseemstohavehadazeroorslightlypositiveeffectonwages,withworkersatthelowerendofthewagedistributionbenefitingmore.

Intheabsenceofpopulationgrowth,risingproductivitythroughtechnologicalprogressistheonlywaytoachievelong-termeconomicgrowth,whichisnecessaryforthecontinuedfundingofpublicexpenditureinanon-zerointerestrateenvironment.GovernmentscanhelptoensurethatworkersbenefitfromtheproductivitygainsandcostsavingsgeneratedbyAI,whichwillalsosupportsocialprotectionfundingthatinmanycountriesmostlyreliesonlabourincome,e.g.througheducationandtrainingorbysupportingcollectivebargaining.Countriesmaywanttoreconsidertheirtaxmixesshouldtechnology-drivenproductivitygrowthmostlyaccruetocapital.

Carbontaxesgeneratespaceforredistribution

Becauselow-incomehouseholdsspendmoreoftheirincome,theyaremoreexposedtoconsumptiontaxeslikecarbontaxes.Butbecausehigher-incomehouseholdshavehigherabsoluteexpenditure(andthereforetaxliability),redistributingthecarbontaxrevenueequallyacrosshouseholdswouldmakehouseholdsatthebottomoftheincomedistributionbetteroff.Toachievepublicsupportforincreasesincarbonprices,compensationpoliciesneedtobeimmediate,transparentandofsufficientsize.Countriesareincreasinglyusingnewdataanddigitaltechnologiestoincreasetheircapabilitiestoprovidebenefitsthatareeasytoclaim,timelyandresponsivetochangingcircumstances.

Thenet-zerotransitionwillnecessitateincomereplacementandactivelabourmarketpolicies

Currentestimatesforecastaslightlynegativeeffectofthenet-zerotransitiononemployment.Workersinhigh-emissionindustriesare,onaverage,morelikelytohaveloweducationalattainmentandparticipatelessinlife-longlearning,butearncomparativelyhighwages.Theyaremorelikelytobeolder,male,and

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liveinruralareasthantheaverageworker-acombinationwithhighcostsofjobreallocationandrisksoflong-termunemployment.

Accessibleandadequateunemploymentinsuranceschemesareafirstlineofdefence,butaffectedworkersmayrequiresubstantialre-skillingandmayfacelowerwagesuponre-e