2024年促进可再生氢和衍生商品的全球贸易报告（英文版）-IRENA国际可再生能源机构

ENABLINGGLOBAL

TRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENAND

DERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

©IRENAandWTO,2024.

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-637-4

Citation:IRENAandWTO(2024),Enablingglobaltradeinrenewablehydrogenandderivativecommodities,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyandWorldTradeOrganization,AbuDhabiandGeneva.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasauthoredbyJamesWalkerandAnn-KathrinLipponer(IRENA),andSvetlanaChobanova,SairaMunirandRainerLanz(WTO),undertheguidanceofRolandRoesch(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre),FranciscoBoshell(IRENA)andAikHoeLim(Director,TradeandEnvironmentDivision,WTO).

SeveralIRENAandWTOstaffrevieweddraftsofthisreport,includingArnovandenBos,FranciscoGafaro,PaulKomor,DanialSaleem,ZafarSamadov,GondiaSeckandPatriciaWild(IRENA),aswellasAnkaiXu,DanielRamos,DevinMcDaniels,Jose-AntonioMonteiro,MateoFerrero,MichaelRoberts,PhilippePelletier,RoySantana,SerefGokayCoskunandHelenSwain(WTO).

Theauthorsalsowishtoexpresstheirsincereappreciationtothefollowingexpertsfortheirreviewsandinsightfulfeedback:NawalYousifAlhanaee(UAEMinistryofEnergyandInfrastructure),LaurentAntoni(InternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy),DariaNochevnik(HydrogenCouncil),andCarlaRobledoandHanFeenstra(MinistryofClimatePolicyandGreenGrowthoftheNetherlands).

PublicationsandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke,withdesignbyPhoenixDesignAid.

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture,andservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

AbouttheWTO

TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)istheonlyglobalinternationalorganisationdealingwiththerulesoftradebetweenitsmembers.AtitsheartaretheWTOagreements,negotiatedandsignedbythebulkoftheworld’stradingnationsandratifiedintheirparliaments.TheWTO’sfundamentalgoal,assetoutintheorganization’sfoundingagreement,istousetradeasameanstoimprovepeople’slivingstandards,createbetterjobsandpromotesustainabledevelopment.

ThisreportfollowspriorrelevantworkpublishedbyIRENAandtheWTO,including:

Internationaltradeandgreenhydrogen:Supportingtheglobaltransitiontoalow-carboneconomy

(IRENA-WTO

jointreport2023)

Tradingintoabrightenergyfuture:Thecaseforopen,high-qualitysolarphotovoltaicmarkets

(IRENA-WTOjoint

report2021)

Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives:Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

(IRENA2024)

Globalhydrogentradetomeetthe1.5°Cclimategoal:Tradeoutlookfor2050andwayforward

(IRENA2022)

TradePolicyToolsforClimateAction

(WTO2023)

Disclaimer

ThispublicationandtheinformationhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyandthestaffoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)andareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAandtheWTOtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neithertheIRENAnortheWTO,noranyoftheirofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyreflectthepositionsoropinionsoftheMembersofIRENA.

TheinformationprovidedforthisreportbytheWTOispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheWTOSecretariat.TheopinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsorviewsofWTOmembers.Theviewsexpressed,andthetermsandillustrationsusedinthispublicationarewithoutprejudicetoWTOmembers’rightsandobligations;theyarenotintendedtoprovideanyauthoritativeorlegalinterpretationoftheprovisionsoftheWTOAgreements.

ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyeitherIRENAortheWTOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAortheWTOconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS 5

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 6

INTRODUCTION 7

Theroleforhydrogenanditsderivativesintheglobalenergytransition 7

Internationaltradeasatoolforsustainabledevelopment 7

Enablers:Foundationsandapproach 9

MARKETOVERVIEWS 11

ENABLERS 20

Physical 20

Holisticconsiderationofresourceavailabilitiesandrequirementsforinfrastructure

developmentplanning 20

Prioritisingdistributioninfrastructuredevelopmenttoensuremarketaccess

forproducers 21

Supportingthedevelopmentofdiversifiedsupplychainsacrosssectors 21

INSTITUTIONAL 22

Aligningstandardsandreducingdivergencesincertificationtoensurecredible

globalmarkets 22

Calibratinggovernmentsupportandprocurementtofacilitatedemandandofftake 24

Rebalancingtariffsforkeyproductsandservicestoreducetechnologycosts 26

Co-ordinatingcarbonpricingmechanismstoenhancecompetitiveness 28

Harnessinginternationalcooperationtoensureequitablegrowth 28

SOCIAL 31

Balancinglocalandinternationalmarketfocustoencouragesustainableindustrial

development 31

Embeddingjobcreationinnationalactionplanningforhydrogenandthe

derivativesectors 32

Communityandstakeholderengagementguidelinesforprojectdevelopers 34

CONCLUSIONS 36

Summaryofenablers 36

REFERENCES 38

3

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

4

FIGURES

Figure1Bilateraltradepatternsinhydrogen(HS280410)in2023,USDmillionand% 12

Figure2Bilateraltradepatternsinammonia(HS281410)in2023,USDmillionand% 14

Figure3Bilateraltradepatternsinmethanol(HS290511)in2023,USDmillionand% 16

Figure4Bilateraltradepatternsinkerosene(HS271019)in2023,USDmillionand% 18

Figure5Averagetariffsforhydrogenandderivativesbyincomegroup 27

Figure6Overviewofsampleprofessiontypesrequiredfortherenewablehydrogenand

derivativesector 33

Figure7Communityengagementguidelinesforhydrogenhubs 35

BOXES

Box1Casestudy:PreparingforammoniaimportsintheRepublicofKorea 21

Box2CasestudyApplicationsofinstitutionalenablersinChile 30

Box3CasestudyKenyahydrogenroadmapandsustainableindustrialdevelopment 32

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

ABBREVIATIONS

CO2

CO2eqCOP28CTS

ENTSOG

EU

GHGGt

GW

HS

IHTF

IRENAISO

ITS

MFN

Mt

PV

R&D

RoW

RSB

SAF

TESSD

UNIDO

USD

WCOHSWTO

°C

Carbondioxide

Carbondioxideequivalent

28thConferenceofthePartiesConsolidatedTariffSchedules

EuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsofGas

EuropeanUniongreenhousegasgigatonnes

gigawatt

HarmonizedSystem(oftariffcodes)InternationalHydrogenTradeForum

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

InternationalOrganizationforStandardization1996InformationTechnologyAgreement

mostfavourednation

megatonnesphotovoltaic

researchanddevelopmentrestoftheworld

RoundtableonSustainableBiomassInitiativesustainableaviationfuel

TradeandEnvironmentalSustainabilityStructureDiscussionsUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization

UnitedStatesdollar

WorldCustomsOrganizationHarmonizedSystemWorldTradeOrganization

degreesCelsius

5

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Renewablehydrogenandhydrogen-derivedcommodities–suchasammonia,methanolande-kerosene–areexpectedtoplayimportantrolesintheenergytransition.Whilemostenergyconsumptioncanbemetusingrenewableelectricityorbiofuelsby2050(IRENA,2023a),theuseofrenewablehydrogenanditsderivedcommoditieswillberequiredinhard-to-abatesectors,includinginindustryasfeedstocks(e.g.chemicalmanufacturing,fertiliserproduction,refining,steelmanufacture)andheavy-dutytransportase-fuels(e.g.inmaritimetransportandaviation).Theirusemayaccountforaround14%offinalenergyconsumptionin2050(IRENA,2023a).

Differencesinclimateconditionsandeconomiccircumstancesareexpectedtodrivecostvariationsfortheproductionofrenewablehydrogen,hydrogen-derivedfeedstocksande-fuelsindifferentgeographies.Manycountriesandregionsareconsideringpotentialrolesintheseemergingmarkets.Forthosewithaccesstoabundantrenewableenergyresources,exportingopportunitiesemerge.Forthosewithdevelopedindustrialsectorsandmorelimitedrenewableresources,importscanallowaccesstoadecarbonisedfeedstocksorfuels.Aglobalmarketforthesecommoditiesisexpectedtoenhancecompetitivenessandlowertotalcostsbyfacilitatingthedevelopmentofproductionfacilitieswhererenewableresourcesaremostabundant.

Thedevelopmentofaninternationalmarketforrenewablehydrogenanditsderivativecommoditieswillrequiresignificantlyscaled-upsustainablevaluechains.Furtherphysicalinfrastructureisneeded;forexample,pipelinesandshippingfacilitiesarenecessarytotransportcommoditiesfromproducerstoconsumers.Robustmarketdevelopmentwillbesupportedbyestablishingandelaboratingplansandstrategiesforthedevelopmentofsupplychainsaroundtechnologiesandvitalinputs(suchaswaterandcarbonsourcesfortheproductionofmethanolande-kerosene).Moreover,thedevelopmentofsoundandcoherentpolicyframeworkswillfostermarketgrowth,supportsustainableproduction,andfacilitateinternationaltradeflows.Itisalsoclearthatengagingcommunitiesandbuildingsocialacceptancehelpstofacilitatesuccessfulprojects.

Alloftheseprioritiesrequireaction,fromvariousstakeholders,andthisreportsetsoutaseriesofconsiderationsforpolicymakersenablinginternationalmarketdevelopmentandtradeinrenewablehydrogenanditsderivativecommodities.Theseconsiderationscoverareasofenergyandtradepolicy,andtheintersectionsbetweenthem.Policymakersareencouragedtoconsidertheresourcesandtoolsavailabletothemintheireconomies,andtheirspecificobjectivesintermsofinternationaltradeinrenewablehydrogenanditsderivatives.Tradepoliciessuchasstandardisationandcertificationmechanisms,governmentsupportandprocurement,rebalancingtariffs,andcarbonpricingmechanisms,canbeusedtobolsterinternationalmarketdevelopment.Theevolutionofthesemarketsisexpectedtosupportgreenindustrialdevelopmentandjobcreation,andfosteranefficientenergytransition.

Internationalcollaborationandco-operationisalsorecognisedasbeingessentialtodrivingtheseinternationalmarkets,especiallywhenmechanismsforstandardisationandcertificationareconsidered.Furtherwork

acrossbordersisrequiredintheseareas.

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INTRODUCTION

THEROLEFORHYDROGENANDITSDERIVATIVESINTHEGLOBALENERGYTRANSITION

Towards2050,mostenergyusecanbeaddressedviaelectrification,usingrenewablepower;initsWorldenergytransitionsoutlook1.5°CScenarioIRENAprojectsthat51%ofenergydemandcanbemetusingrenewablepowerdirectlyin2050,risingto67%whencontributionsfrombioenergyareconsidered(IRENA,2023a).However,certainsectorsthatcannotbeeasilyorcost-effectivelyelectrifiedwillrequirerenewablehydrogenorahydrogen-derivedcommoditysuchasammonia,methanolore-kerosenetodecarbonise.Theseend-usesectorsareoftenreferredtoas“hardtoabate”,astherearerelativelyfewsolutionsavailableforaddressingtheirenergydemandthroughrenewablemeans.Thisistrueforbothindustrialprocessesinwhichthesehydrogen-derivedcommoditiesareusedasfeedstocks–likechemicalmanufacturing,fertiliserproduction,refiningandsteelmanufacturing–andforheavy-dutytransportwheretheywillbeusedasfuels–asinthemaritimeandaviationsectors.Inanet-zeroscenario–assourcesoflow-orzero-emissionhydrogen–ammonia,methanolore-kerosenewillbecrucialtodeliveringthecomprehensiveemissionsreductionsthatarerequiredacrosstheenergysystem.Theseendusesaccountfor14%oftotalfinalenergyconsumptionin2050beingaddressedbyhydrogenandhydrogen-derivedfuelsundertheIRENA1.5°CScenario(IRENA,2023a).

Thisreportisconcernedwithrenewablehydrogen–hydrogenproducedviaelectrolysis,poweredbyrenewableelectricity.Currently,globalhydrogenproductionstandsataround95megatonsperyear(MtH2/year),andisprimarilyderivedfromfossilfuelswithoutcarboncaptureandstorage.Hence,hydrogenproductionisasignificantcontributorofemissionsandresultantclimatechange.Similarly,hydrogenderivativeslikeammoniaandmethanol,whicharealsolargelyproducedusingfossilfuels,alsocontributetoglobalemissions.Transitioningtheseindustriestorenewablehydrogensourceswillbecrucialtoreducingtheirenvironmentalimpactandaligningthemwithclimategoals.

JointanalysisbyIRENAandWTOin2023indicatesthatinternationaltradewillplayanimportantroleinthedevelopmentofmarketsforrenewablehydrogenderivatives.Thesecommoditiesareexpectedtobeeasiertotransportthanhydrogenitself,especiallyoverlongdistances,astheyhaveahighervolumetricenergydensity(IRENAandWTO,2023).Buildingonthesefindings,thisbrieffocusesonenablingmeasuresforthedevelopmentofinternationalmarketsforbothrenewablehydrogen,andhydrogen-derivedfeedstocksande-fuels,thatincluderenewableammonia,renewablemethanolande-kerosene.Allthreederivativecommoditieshaveimportantapplicationsinthecurrentenergysystem,andareexpectedtobecomeincreasinglyimportantvectorsforsupplyingenergyorchemicalfeedstocks.

INTERNATIONALTRADEASATOOLFORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT

Currentprocessesfortheproductionofammonia,methanolandkerosenerelyontheuseordirectconversionoffossilfuels.Theseconventionally-producedcommoditiesarewidelytradedtoday,anddataisprovidedinthefollowingsectionsonthescaleofcurrentinternationalmarketsforeach.

7

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

8

Producingrenewableammonia,methanolande-keroseneatscalewillrequireareadilyavailablesourceofrenewablehydrogen,alongsidenitrogenforammonia,andbiogeniccarbon(carbonthatissequesteredfromtheatmosphereduringbiomassgrowth)formethanolande-kerosene.Thereportalsoconsiderskeyenablerstoscaleupsustainableproductionandinternationaltrade.

Thetransitiontorenewableenergyoffersanopportunitytoredefinetheboundariesofenergymarketsandtheirplayers.Internationaltradecanplayasignificantroleinscalinguptheproductionofrenewablehydrogenanditsderivativesbymatchingregionswherethesecommoditiesareinhighdemandwithregionsbenefittingfromabundantsupply.Cross-bordertradecouldsaveUSD3.7trillionininvestmentcostsby2050byconnectinghigh-demandareaswithregionsthatcansupplylow-costrenewableandlow-carbonhydrogenandderivatives,whilehelpingtounlocksome22millionjobsbymid-century,halfoftheminemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(HydrogenCouncilandMcKinsey&Company,2024).Thisisespeciallytrueineconomieswithabundantrenewableresources–manyofwhicharedevelopingeconomies–whereitmaybepossibletoproducethesegreencommoditiesatalowercostthanelsewhere.Inturn,thedemandofimportingmarketscanencouragethedevelopmentofproductioncapacityandinnovationtofurtherlowercosts.Tradecanthushelpdevelopingeconomiesrealisetheirgreencomparativeadvantages,stimulatesustainableindustrialdevelopmentandincreaseavailabilityoftechnology,whileatthesametimeoptimisinginvestmentandensuringdiversityofsupply.

Morethanfiftygovernmentshavepresentedstrategiesandpolicyframeworksforthedevelopmentofrenewablehydrogenproductionanduseintheircountries,andsomehavealsoconsideredhowtobestfacilitatetheevolutionofvaluechainsforrenewableammonia,methanolande-kerosene(IRENA,2024a).Thesevaluechainscovertheproduction,transport,distribution,andenduseofthesecommodities.Atthisstageofmarketdevelopment,governmentpolicies–fromoptimisedtariffsandtaxregimes,throughaligningstandardsandcertificationschemesandprovidinggovernmentsupport,toimplementinggreengovernmentprocurementpracticesandcarbonpricingschemes–areessentialtosecuresignificant,stabledemandaswellastoincentiviseinvestment,whilediscouragingtheconsumptionoffossil-fuelderivedproducts.

Theoptimalpolicymixmayvaryacrosseconomies,dependingontheirnaturalresourceendowments,financialcapacitiesandindustrycompositions.Eacheconomy’sapproachwillalsoreflectitsspecificpriorities,suchaswhetheritseekstopositionitselfasanetexporterorimporterofrenewablehydrogen,derivativesand/ortechnologies.Theimplementationofenvironmentalpoliciesoftenfollowsafamiliarsequence:initially,governmentstendtoprovidesupportandregulatoryframeworkstofostergreentechnologydevelopmentandadoption.Oncethesetechnologiesachievegreatermaturity,countriesthentypicallyintroduceprocurementpolicies,investmentincentives,andcarbonpricingmechanismstofurtherdrivemarketexpansionandsustainabilitygoals(Linsenmeieretal.,2022).

Apatchworkofrulesanddivergentpolicyapproachescan,however,createtradetensionsandjeopardisetheeffectivenessofthesepolicies.Internationalcoordinationanddialoguebetweengovernmentsandtheprivatesectorarethereforeessentialinordertocreateefficienciesandspeedupthedisseminationofsustainablevolumesofrenewablehydrogen,ammonia,methanolande-kerosene.Fosteringinternationalcooperationthroughinclusivemultilateralforacanalsoprovidemuch-neededpolicystabilityandenhanceinvestmentsecurity,creatingaglobalmarketforrenewablehydrogenandderivativecommodities.

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

ENABLERS:FOUNDATIONSANDAPPROACH

Theenablersconsideredinthisreportarecategorisedaccordingtothree‘pillars’or‘types’ofmeasures,whichcanbedevelopedtosupportthescalingupofinternationalmarketsfortherenewablehydrogen-derivedcommoditiesdiscussedhere.Thesepillarsdescribephysical,institutionalandsocialenablers.Recommendedactionsthatcanfacilitateorsupportthedevelopmentofinternationalmarketsforthesegreencommoditiesaredescribedunderthesepillarsbelow.

Physical

Physicalenablersrefertothedeploymentofessentialinfrastructuresuchasrenewableenergygenerators,hydrogenproductionplantsandderivativecommodityproductionfacilities.Infrastructuresforthestorage,transport,distributionanddeliveryofhydrogen,andderivativecommodities,arealsoconsideredinthiscategory.

Institutional

Institutionalenablersprimarilyencompassthepolicymeasuresthatgovernmentsandregulatorscanusetosupportmarketdevelopment.Theseregulatoryframeworksinclude,interalia,importtariffs,taxationregimesandcarbonpricinginstruments,standardsandcertification,governmentsupportandprocurement.

Social

Thesocialenablersconsidertheadditionalconsiderationsandpotentialbenefitsthattradeinhydrogenderivativecommoditiesmayrealise.Anticipatedsocialbenefitsassociatedwithdevelopingthesemarketsincludesustainableindustrialisationandgrowth,alongwiththeassociatedjobcreation.Enablingmeasuresinthisareaconcerncommunityengagementandothermeansofencouragingsocialacceptanceofenergydevelopment,aswellasskillsdevelopmentandwidereducationalmeasurestoenablecitizenstobenefitfrommarketgrowth.

Thefollowingsectionintroducesthecurrentstateofmarketsforhydrogenandhydrogen-derivedcommodities,i.e.ammonia,methanolandkerosene.

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ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

MARKETOVERVIEWS

HYDROGEN

Today,almostallhydrogenisproducedfromfossilfuels,emittingaround1.3gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarbondioxideequivalent(CO2eq)emissionsannually,posingasignificantchallengeforclimategoals.Tomeetnet-zerotargets,low-carbonhydrogenproductionmustexpandfive-foldby2050,requiringlarge-scaledeploymentofelectrolysersandrenewablepower.Costsremainabarrier,butfallingpricesforrenewableelectricityandanticipatedreductionsinelectrolysercostscouldmakerenewablehydrogencompetitivewithfossil-basedalternativesbythe2030s,especiallyinregionswithabundantrenewableenergyresources(IRENA,2023a).

Figure1

Bilateraltradepatternsinhydrogen(HS280410)in2023,USDmillionand%

EXPORTERIMPORTER

Malaysia(5.57)2.35%Germany(8.96)3.77%

Belgium(83.34)

35.10%

RestofWorld(46.05)

19.40%

France

(10.59)4.46%

Canada(67.94)

28.62%

Netherlands(80.95)

34.10%

RestofWorld(24.40)

10.28%

UnitedStatesofAmerica(68.10)

28.69%

Netherlands(20.32)8.56%

UnitedStatesofAmerica(22.03)9.28%

Canada(6.43)2.71%Mexico(10.76)4.53%

Germany(13.41)5.65%

France(5.38)2.26%Malaysia(0.59)0.25%

Source:WTOAnalyticalDatabase(WTO,2024a).

Note:Basedonbilateralimportdata;left-handsideindicatesexporters,right-handsideindicatesimportingmarkets;RoW=restoftheworld

10

1Tradestatisticsdonotdistinguishbetweentradeingreenhydrogenandfossil-fuelbasedhydrogen.

ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

HYDROGEN

Thoseregionswiththebestrenewableenergyconditionswilllikelybecomekeyrenewablehydrogenproducersduetolowerproductioncosts–providedtheyhaveanefficientaccesstocapital,landandwater.Thisgeographicdistributioncouldenableamoregloballyequitableenergylandscapecomparedtothatoffossilfuels,asrenewableresourcesaredistributedmorewidelyglobally,allowingvariousregionstoparticipateinthefuturehydrogeneconomy.Thisoffersacompellingopportunityformanyeconomies.

Expandingrenewablehydrogenproductionalsohastradeimplications,ascountriesareexpectedtotradehydrogenitselforhydrogen-derivedcommoditieslikeammoniaandmethanol.Withintheglobalenergytransition,significantinfrastructureinvestments,technologyimprovementsandinternationalcooperationwill,however,benecessarytoscalerenewablehydrogenandmeetrisingdemand.

Tradeinhydrogen,regardlessofitsproductionmethod,existsonlyatarelativelysmallscaleandoccursmainlybetweeneconomiesthatareclosetooneanother,reflectingtheimpactofhightransportcostsoverlongerdistancesandthestillpredominantuseofnatural-gasbasedhydrogenforammoniaproductionandpetroleumrefining–themainsourcesofcurrentdemand.1

GlobalimportsofhydrogenamountedtoUSD237millionin2023,adecreaseofmorethan20%comparedtothespikeinhydrogentradein2022,butstillsignificantlyhigher(37%)thantheaverageofUSD174millionduring2012–2022(IRENAetal.,2023).Trendsinthevalueofhydrogentradearepartlydrivenbyfluctuationsinthepriceofnaturalgas,whichisthedominantsourceofcurrenthydrogenproduction.Morethan60%ofthevalueofglobaltradeinhydrogentookplacebetweentwoneighbouring-countrypairsin2023,withCanadaandBelgiumexportinglargevolumesofhydrogentotheUnitedStatesandtheNetherlands,respectively(Figure1).Diversificationinthesetradeflowsisexpectedinthecomingyears,asproductionprojectsaredevelopedinawiderrangeoflocations.

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ENABLINGGLOBALTRADEINRENEWABLEHYDROGENANDDERIVATIVECOMMODITIES

MARKETOVERVIEWS

AMMONIA

Ammoniaisanessentialcommodity,with85%ofitsglobalproductionusedforsyntheticnitrogenfertilisers.Currently,ammoniaproductionisresponsibleforaround0.5gigatonnes(Gt)ofCO2eqannually,accountingfor1%ofglobalcarbonemissions.Itisalsothesecond-largestsourceofdemandforhydrogen,withabout45%ofglobalhydrogendemandusedinammoniaproduction.Transitioningtorenewableammonia,producedfromrenewablehydrogen,presentsacriticaldecarbonisationopportunityforthechemicalindustry.By2050,theammoniamarketcouldreach688Mt,drivenbyrenewableammoniausedinagriculture,maritimefuels,andasarenewablehydrogencarrier(IRENAandAEA,2022).

Figure2

Bilateraltradepatternsinammonia(HS281410)in2023,USDmillionand%

EXPORTERIMPORTER

China(325.49)

3.60%

RestofWorld(2,508.49)

27.78%

UnitedStatesofAmerica(1,345.89)

14.90%

Korea,Republicof(571.97)6.33%

Belgium

(398.28)4.41%

TrinidadandTobago(1,882.03)

20.84%

Morocco

(859.95)9.52%

Türkiye(429.84)4.76%

India

(1,220.86)

13.52%

Canada(788.76)

8.73%

SaudiAr