高盛-贵州茅台-600519-聚焦中国高韧性企业：同时拥有独特的品牌价值和持续的定价能力

同时拥有独特的品牌价值和持续的定价能力(摘要)聚焦中国高韧性企业(China聚焦中国高韧性企业(ChinaResilience)系列报告重点介绍了具备强大竞争护城河的中国企业，它们的竞争优势使其能更好地应对复杂多变的宏观环境。我们在报告中具体研究了这批企业的商业护城河、历史资本配置和回报情况，并分别提供了谨慎情景和展望2035年前行道路的蓝天情景分析。我们希望此系列报告可以给大家提供一个明晰的框架，去更深层次理解这批优质企业未来在国内以及国际舞台上发展的韧劲。我们认为，贵州茅台作为中国最大、最高端的白酒企业，将继续穿越周期并强化其稀缺价值、强大的定价能力和独特的品牌资产。品牌地位，该产品采用复杂工艺、生产周期长、而且产），计，茅台将进一步巩固其在超高端细分市场和次高端性企业，考虑到经济低速增长环境和长期增速东回报可预见性带来缓冲。我们的估值分析显示，在悲），和品牌资产被称为中国的“国酒”，飞天茅台高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯-因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅/research/hedge.htmI。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师359信息披露附录HowdowedefinescenariosHowdowedefinescenariosBearscenariosAssumenovolumegrowthduetoweakerdemand,BearscenariosAssumenovolumegrowthduetoweakerdemand,andMoutaiSpiritsASPgrowthsameasGSeGDPgrowth,withSG&Aratiosameas2024assumingnooperatingefficiencyBasescenariosGSbasecase,assumedstablevolume&ASPgrowth,andmildoperatingefficiencygainsBlueSkyscenariosAL-TgrowthscenarioassumingFeitianMoutaitosee10%ex-fpricehikeevery3yearssince2024,withmoderatevolumegrowthKweichowMoutaiValuationsUpside2025EP/ELast1yearavgofglobal2015-1H24peers'P/EaverageP/E1459.02051.0-17%17%20.026.5Rmb/sh%x2461.041%31.8BlueSkyreferenceBaseBearDCF2010-23A2024E-26E2024E-26E2024-35E*Revenue-CAGR21.8%4.8%10.0%9.0%NP-CAGR23.0%5.5%11.6%10.0%OCF-CAGR20.0%6.4%12.0%9.9%FCF-CAGR22.8%6.6%12.3%10.2%Divpayout-avg51.8%75.0%75.0%75.0%Grossmargin-avg91.7%92.6%92.6%94.6%EBITDAmargin-avg67.9%69.5%70.0%74.8%Netmargin-avg46.9%50.4%50.8%55.5%FCFyield-avgFCFyield-avgDivyield-avgROIC-avg(2035Emarginandyieldsareperiodendvalues)4.1% 3.1%203.2%4.3% 3.3%228.6%1.3% 0.8%177.0%11.2%8.5%n.m.Bearscenarios-Assumenovolumegrowthin25-26EduetoweakerdemandandMoutaiSpiritsASPgrowthsameasGSeGDPgrowth,withSG&Aratiosameas2024EassumingnooperatingefficiencyBasescenarios-GSbasecase,assumedstablevolume&ASPgrowth,andmildBasescenarios-GSbasecase,BlueSkyscenarios-AL-TgrowthscenarioassumingFeitianMoutaitosee10%ex-fpricehikeevery3yearssince2024,withmoderatevolumegrowthTop10Sauceflavorspiritsproductioncapacity('000tons)400Series400SeriesspiritsMoutaispiritsXijiuZhenjiuAnjiuJinshaChuanjiuSishiJiufangXijiuZhenjiuAnjiuJinshaChuanjiuSishiJiufangJingjiuXiantanSalesCAGRgrowthvalue(Rmbbn)30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%2013-20172017-2023IndustryTAMgrowth($)Moutairevenuegrowth($)资料来源：公司数据,欧睿国际,高盛全球tons70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000Currentyear'ssalesvolumeofMoutaiSpiritsAvailablesalesvolumeforFetianMoutaiProductionvolume4Yago/Salesvolume:3.6%26-35106%105%104%108%106%105%104%101%100%97%96%95%95%101%100%97%96%95%95%95%91%91%90%88%91%91%91%90%88%86%201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E70%201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E125%105%85%65%45%25%5%-15%Marketcap-NAV(USDbn)-HermesRichemontWuliangyeYangheSwellfunZJLDJiugui291HermesRichemontWuliangyeYangheSwellfunZJLDJiugui2782307 753%FeitianMoutai,channelprofitsJan-06Jan-07Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-12Jan-13Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-2427002200WholesalepriceChannelprofitabilityAspectsMoutaiHermesBrandvalueThelargestspiritscompanygloballyonmarketcapwith ~US$21bnsalesin2023.Leadingluxurycompanygloballywith~US$15bnsalesin2023.LuxurygoodsnatureCollection,high-enddiscretionarygoodsconsumptionHigh-qualitycraftsmanship5-yrproductionwithhumanefforts,craftsman’stastingandmixingoffinalproductsFullyinternalisedproductionwithskilledartisansConstrainedsupplyDistributorsneedtoprocureseriesliquoralongsideMoutaispirits.Constrainedsupplyoficonicproducts,withwaitlistofpotentialcustomers.CollectionvalueMoutaispirits’tasteimprovesasitages.15,30&50yearvintageMoutaiarehighlypriced.Limitededitionlauncheswithhighcollectionvalue.Activesecondhandmarketforiconicproducts.2023ASP/bottle(ex-VAT)DirectSalesChannelContribution(ex-VAT)2,5002,150RevenuecontributionVolumecontribution2,1502,0002,00040%DirectSalesWholesaleMoutaiFenWineLaojiaoWuliangyeGujingKing'sLuckYangheRemyJiuguiMoutai42%FenWineLaojiaoWuliangyeGujingKing'sLuckYangheRemyJiuguiMoutai42%43%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%38%35%Average2023=28%23%24%24%23%36%37%28%45,211(15,446)(23,530)(27,707)Moutai'scapitalusesandsources(Rmbmn)45,211(15,446)(23,530)(27,707)80,00060,00040,00020,0000(20,000)(40,000)(60,000)60,00040,00020,0000(20,000)(40,000)(60,000)(80,000)OCF(+)SharebuybacksDividends(-)Capex(-)64,02966,59351,66941,38536,699(22,294)(57,529)ROICROIC(2013/2023,%)O2013ROICa2023ROIC2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E50%40%30%2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E50%40%30%20%800600400200023-35CAGR23-35CAGR4.2%-4.3%-4.3%1.0%6.2%8.8%0%Midend(RSPRmb100-300)Highend(RSP>Rmb600)Lowtolower-midend(RSPMidend(RSPRmb100-300)Highend(RSP>Rmb600)Moutai'srevenueshare资料来源：欧睿国际,高盛全球投资研究部,公FenWineGujingJiuguiKing'sLuckWuliangyeLaojiaoYanghePernodRemyMoutai30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%MoutaisalesandNPFenWineGujingJiuguiKing'sLuckWuliangyeLaojiaoYanghePernodRemyMoutai30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%MoutaisalesandNPCAGR=17%2013-2023SalesCAGR2013-2023NPCAGRChishuiChishuiRiverXishuiTownGoldenTriangleAreaforSauceFlavorSpiritsMoutaiTownJinshaTownChannelProfit(Rmb/bottle)3500ChannelprofitofGuojiao1573ChannelprofitofCommonWuliangyeChannelprofitofFeitianMoutai2500200003000-500MoutaiPriceHikesSince2021TimeMoutai/SeriesSpiritsSKUPricetypeEx-factoryPricebeforeHikePriceafterHikeHikeMagnitudeJan,2021SeriesSpiritsCommonPrinceexfactory98Jan,2021SeriesSpiritsCommonPrinceexfactory9820%SeriesSpiritsPrinceClassicexfactorySeriesSpiritsPrinceZhenpinexfactory21828%SeriesSpiritsCommonHanjiangexfactory2682887%Mar,2021MoutaiSpiritsZodiacMoutaiexfactory54%MoutaiSpiritsZodiacMoutairetailprice249947%MoutaiSpiritsJingpinMoutaiexfactory22992699MoutaiSpiritsJingpinMoutairetailprice319932993%Jan,2022MoutaiSpiritsVintageMoutai15exfactory3929536937%MoutaiSpiritsVintageMoutai15retailprice4999599920%MoutaiSpiritsZodiacMoutai-Tigerexfactory2299MoutaiSpiritsJingpinMoutaiexfactory26992969MoutaiSpiritsexfactory-newZhenpinMoutaiproductlaunch4299MoutaiSpiritsZhenpinMoutairetailprice449945992%SeriesSpiritsGoldPrinceexfactorySeriesSpiritsPrinceClassicexfactory208SeriesSpiritsPrinceZhenpinexfactory9%SeriesSpiritsHanjiangexfactoryMar,2022MoutaiSpiritsVintageMar,2022MoutaiSpiritsVintageMoutai15exfactory53695399i-MoutailaunchApr,2022MoutaiSpiritsZodiacMoutai-Tigerexfactory229923994%SeriesSpiritsMoutai1935exfactory79836%MoutaiSpiritsZhenpinMoutaiexfactory429944995%exfactoryi-MoutailaunchMay2022MoutaiSpirits100mlFeitianMoutaiexfactory-newproductlaunch379Nov,2023MoutaiSpirits500mlFeitianexfactory969116921%MoutaiRmb/bottleChannelProfitabilityofSelectedMoutaiRmb/bottle7,000-7,000-WholesaleinOct2023nWholesaleinOct2024Ex-factorypriceCurrentchannelprofits6,00053996,00042995,00042994,00026993,00026992,00012010-219-429-219Moutai-15yearsCaiyouZhenpinJingpinMoutaiZodiac(500ml)FeitianMoutai(Originalcase,500ml)i-MoutaiSalesi-MoutaiSales(GSE)28.326.48.940.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.028.326.48.9202220232024E2025E2026Ei-MoutaiMoutaispiritssalesexcl.VATi-Moutaiseriesspiritsalesexcl.VAT▲i-Moutaisalesas%oftotalspiritssales(RHS)14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%(ton)i-MoutaiVolume(GSE)8,2188,2188,6238,0006,0004,0008,0006,0004,0002,00006%4%2%3,3036,9937,718202220232024E2025E2026Eai-Moutaivolume(LHS)▲as%oftotalvolume(RHS)Non-StandardProducts'VolumeContributiontoMoutaiSpirits(GSe)4%2021202220232024E2025E2026EValuationTickerCompanynameP/E(x)B/SStrengthsalesNetcash/salesGrowthtrajectoryChinaSpiritsChinaSpirits2025202520252025202520252025202520252019-232023-26E2019-232023-26E600519.SSKweichowMoutai22.6X37.1%27.2000858.SZWuliangyeYibin17.6X000568.SZLuzhouLaojiaoGlobalSpiritsGlobalSpiritsDGE.LDiageo20.1XRCOP.PARemyCointreau19GlobalLuxuryRetaGlobalLuxuryRetailHRMS.PAHermes46.7XLVMH.PALVMH22.7XCFR.SRichemont22.5X23.1%29.8%26.5%20.3%60.0%41.5%48.4%43.3%4.7%2.9%2.2%2.2%20%45%-143%-54%-23%-26%20.122.745%21%-6%-3%-13%-1%-10%4%4%lllll2023ROENPMAssetturnoverAssetleverageratioMoutai33%50%0.571.28Wuliangye25%36%0.52FenWine42%33%0.79Swellfun32%26%0.6425%20%25%20%Spirits22%F&BDairyRestaurantsBeerCondimentsSportswearApplian6%(16-23)4%2%TsingtaoBreweryTingyiFoshanYiliIndustrialAntaSportsYumChina2010-2023CAGR2023-2026ECAGRKeyfinancialmetrics2023203020352023-352023-35CAGRIndustryTAM(USDbn)81.1107.9136.64.4%Marketshare(%)25%38%45%Industryvolume(ktonnes)3,7132,8082,376-3.7%Volumeshare(%)2.0%3.7%5.6%Revenue(USDbn)20.641.061.29.5%Salesvolume(ktonnes)73.3103.0133.25.1%5.1%Moutaispirits42.153.865.83.8%Seriesspirits31.249.267.46.6%ASP(Rmb/bottle)1,0271,4531,6784.2%4.2%Moutaispirits1,5032,2932,8065.3%Seriesspirits3314885334.1%Directsalesmix(%)46%42%43%Seriesspiritsmix(%)GPM(%)92%94%95%OPM(%)68%72%75%Netmargins(%)50%54%55%Netprofit(USDbn)22.034.010.5%CROCI(%)36%36%34%ROE(%)33%35%33%FCF/Revenue(%)42.3%53.1%54.9%CAPEX/Revenue(%)1.7%1.6%1.1%Dividendpayout(%)76%75%75%Dividendyield2.6%5.5%8.5%Freecashflowyield2.9%7.2%11.2%YearYear2006201220142018202320232024YTD2030OurBlueSkyScenario2035OurBlueSkyScenario(Anti-graftperiod)Ex-factoryprice(Rmb,avg)305686819Basedonscenarioanalysisbenchmarkingdisposableincomegrowth:Wholesaleprice(Rmb,avg)3361,448867Markup(x)Markupvalue(Rmb)31762486982,9522.9x2,7372,4002.1x2,1334,0992.8x2,6582,4734,9842.3x2.3x2.5x2,4024b/bottle53%FeitianMoutai,channelprofits350030003500300025002000500Jan,2015-Aug,2024:Wholesalepricegrowth:221%Ex-factorypricegrowth:43%ChannelprofitabilityperbottleEx-factorypriceWholesalepriceJan-Jan-15Sep-15Jan-16Sep-16Jan-17Sep-17Jan-18Sep-18Jan-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-245656TimeofEx-factorypriceof53%v/vMoutaichange%RevgrowthNPgrowth8/10/20012184045%30%10/1/200326831%57%2/10/200630840%25%38%4/1/2007358%48%83%1/11/200843834%1/1/20104994%20%1/1/201161924%58%73%9/1/201281932%44%52%1/1/2018969%26%30%11/1/202321%Average99.121%33%44%2006200720082006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EMoutaiPricevsPersonalIncome:Scenarios70%9,96860%8,0006,0004,98430%4,00020%2,0000%Urbanemplyoeesalary(Rmb)Moutaiwholesaleprice(Basecase,Rmb)——WholesalepricebullcaseUrbanemplyoeesalary-bear(Rmb)Wholesalepricebearcase---Moutaiwholesaleprice/urbanemployeesalary(RHS)50%40% 3,9872,3702,4736,254 40%-23-35CAGR4.2%-4.3%6.2%8.8%Chinaspiritsindustrybypricetier(Rmbbn)Moutai23-35CAGR4.2%-4.3%6.2%8.8%40002012201320142012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E40%Midend(RSPRmb100-300)Highend(RSP>Rmb600)Lowtolower-midend(Midend(RSPRmb100-300)Highend(RSP>Rmb600)Moutai'srevenueshare资料来源：欧睿国际,高盛全球投资研究部,公High-end/Upper-mid-endspiritsrevenuegrowthvsChina'sGDPgrowthGDPGrowth(%yoy)Highendrevenueyoy20172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E Upper20172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E Uppermid-endrevenueyoySuperpremiumliquorvoluktonscohort2502005020620-35CAGR5.9%864720202035EBasecaseWorkingclassfamilyMiddleclassfamilyAffluentfamilyHighnetworthfamilyMoutaisales(Feitian+1935)inhigh-endsegmentvaluesharesinhigh-end(Rmbmn)450,000400,000350,000300,00040%250,00040%200,00050,000-4%25,00020,0005,000-(Rmbmn)Moutaiuppermidendsalesvaluevaluesharesinupper-mid-end4%25,00020,0005,000-MoutaiSpiritsVolume,yoy#householdswithdisposableincomeoverUS$100kyoy2001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025E2027E2029E2031E2033E2035E45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% -5%-10%2001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025E2027E2029E2031E2033E2035E资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,公司数据,欧40%20%-10%-20%200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024E2026E2028E2030E200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024E2026E2028E2030E2032E2034EDecile10,HouseholdAvgDisposableIncome,yoy(RHS)25%20%15%10%5%-5%-10%资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部,欧ScenarioScenarioanalysisforIndustrytowards2035ERmbbn(unlesso/wstated)201620232035E2035vs.base2023-35EChinaspiritsindustrymarketsize4305929974.4%High-endspiritsmarketsize652466418.3%Upper-mid-endspiritsmarketsize35761495.8%Mid-endspiritsmarketsize858598Lower-midtolow-endspiritsmarketsize246185108ImpliedmarketsharesofMoutaiatitsbasecaseofpricehikes45%ImpliedMoutai'ssharesinhigh-end(basecase)55%60%ImpliedMoutai'ssharesinuppermidend(basecase)5%14%ChinaspiritsindustrymarketsizeHigh-endspiritsmarketsize9.7%Upper-mid-endspiritsmarketsize20637.9%8.7%BearBearcaseChinaspiritsindustrymarketsize699-39.7%1.4%High-endspiritsmarketsize-52.2%Upper-mid-endspiritsmarketsize-50.4%2.5%Highend84%Directsales43%~2,40020%20%25%25%TodistributorHighend84%Directsales43%~2,40020%20%25%25%Todistributor57%~1,1000%40%40%25%25%Seriesliquor3710%15~20%15~20%25%MoutaiListco7%17.3%24.1%25.0%-13%-10%-7%-4%-1%-10%-7%-4%-1%2%-2%1%4%8%-8%-4%-1%2%5%-5%-2%2%5%8%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%ASPhikeASPhikeCurrentCurrentEffectiveTaxrateScenario1Moutai'sburdenScenario3OnProducerScenario2OnProducerTaxbasePrice(Rmb)2024ESalesMixTranslatetoexfOnwholesalesMoutaiCasestudyMoutaiDistributorDistributor'sburdenHighend48%~2,400onavg0%20%60%0%0%Seriesliquor200~6000%10%~15%0%0%0%58,146DCFValuation:consumptiontaxchangesince2025Basecase=12%Scenario1=17%Scenario3=25%DCF-basedvaluationpershare(Rmb)2,4612,3172,055+/-vs.currentshareprice41%33%18%+/-%vs.basecase-6%-16%Moutai2024ENPChangeinScenarioMoutai2024ENPChangeinSTaxBurdentakenbyTaxBurdentakenbyMoutai-1%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%-8%20.0%22.5%25.0%27.5%30.0%-19%-19%-16%-13%-11%-8%-26%-24%-21%-19%-16%-15%-12%-10%-7%-4%-23%-20%-17%-15%-12%-12%-9%-6%-3%0%