2024年欧洲高端买家重新考虑购买电动汽车报告-2024-10-市场解读

BCG

Europe’sHigh-EndBuyersRethinkEVOwnership

AUGUST2024

METHODOLOGY

BCGsurveyedmorethan5,000prospectiveautopurchasersinfivemajorEuropeanmarkets,about20%ofwhomareinthepremium+andluxurypricesegments

EuropeGermanyFranceUKItalySpain

TotalSample5,1211,0211,0291,0481,0131,010

65%

59%

597

52%

2,640

48%

486

50%

511

35%

372

VolumeCar

Prospects(<€50K)

672

37%

384

33%

338

28%

283

PremiumCar

Prospects(€50–80K)

21%

218

21%

208

Premium+andLuxuryCarProspects(€80k+)

21%

1,053

19%

197

14%

139

292

28%

22%

219

20%

205

28%

1,432

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey,May2024.

Note:Prospectiveautopurchasersaredefinedasconsumerslikelytobuyanewcarinthenext12months.

METHODOLOGY

Oursurveyaddressedfourkeyquestions

1

Whatisthepersonatypeofnext-wavepremium+and

2

Whatthresholdsmustbeovercometotriggera

3

Whatidentifiedhurdlesarepreventingcustomersfrom

4

WhatactionsdoOEMsneedtotake?

BEVpurchase?

luxuryBEVadopters?

buyingnext-genBEVmodels?

Step2:

AssessthresholdsforBEVadoption

Step3:

Gapanalysis

Step4:

DeviseimperativesforOEMs

Step1:

ProfileandsizepotentialBEVcustomers

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey,May2024.

KEYFINDINGS

TheenvironmentishighlychallengingforOEMs,puttingpremium+andluxuryBEVsinlimbo

Uncertaintiesthataffectpurchasedecisions

·

Macroeconomicheadwinds

·Technologycontinuingtodisrupt

·Sustainabilitypressuringthefuture·(Geo)politicaltensions

·Changingregulatoryframeworks

BEVslackingluxurycode

·Residualvaluechallenge·Design≠brandheritage·Technotfullycompetitive

·Customerexperience,includingcharging,disappointing

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey,May2024.

KEYFINDINGS

BEVsarefacingmajorsetbacks,especiallyintheGermanmarket

BEVsharebelowforecastin2023and2024…

BEVSHAREINTOTALLIGHTVEHICLESALESINEUROPE,%

21

19

15

13

13I.

9

6

3

2

9

2019

2020

2021

20222023H124e

ForecastActual

vs.2023Total

Europe–2pp

Germany–7pp

UK–0pp

France+2pp

Italy–1pp

Spain–1pp

…InanunfavorablecontextforBEVadoption

Cutsingovernmentsupport

shrinkBEVshare,especiallyintheUKandGermany

RisingpowerpriceshaveincreasedBEVTCO1by€4,000intheUKand

€2,000inGermany,Italy,andFrance2

Publicchargingstationsarefallingshortofnationaltargets

Sources:BCGPowertrainModel;S&PMobilityGlobalAutoDemandTracker;EuroStat(electricitypricesforhouseholdconsumers);IEA(TotalCostofOwnershipTool).

Note:EuropedefinedasEU27+UK+EFTA

1Totalcostofownership2From2019to2023,formedium-sizedmodels(driving15,000km/year)

KEYFINDINGS

However,premium+andluxuryconsumersexhibitpromisingunderlyingtailwinds

Withstrongfundamentalwealthcreationglobally,thenumberofcoreluxuryconsumersisgrowing

REGIONALSHAREOFHNWIREGIONALSHAREOFUHNWI

776K

835K

6.60M

479K

+5%p.a.

+6%p.a.

●

433K

557K

5.00M

520K

4.50M

CAGR’23–’28

4.30M

=259K368K

+4%p.a.

4.00M

3.80M

2.90M

3.20M

23.3M

19.3M

18.3M

14.9M

+8%p.a.

+10%p.a.

29.9K

●

2.50K

2.30K

3.00K

2.90K

24.8K

18.2K

19.4K

1.60K

11.9K

13.8K

2.00K

17.6K

19.0K

45.9K

24.8K

29.0K

16.0K

3.80K

4.60K

CAGR’23–’28

+6%p.a.

20182022202320282018202220232028

NorthAmericaEuropeAsiaPacificMiddleEastandAfricaLatinAmerica

Sources:BCGGlobalWealthReport2024;BCGanalysis.

Note:HNWI=high-net-worthindividual($1M+);UHNWI=ultra-high-net-worthindividual($30M+).

Premium+and

luxurynext-waveBEVadopters1

38%

70%

Millennials&GenZ2

50%

Female/Male

KEYFINDINGS

Thenextgenerationofpremium+andluxuryBEVbuyersishere,andtheyhavestrongpreferencesandpurchasecriteria

75%

Passionateabouttechnology

Considerthemselvesastechenthusiastsandareopentonewthings

64%

Electricpreference

OptforBEVoverICE,ifmodelshaveidenticalspecs

75%

Safetyastoppriority

Corevehicleattributesstillhighlyrelevant

60%

Highpurchasingintention

OpentobuyingBEVwithout

waitingfortechimprovements

65%

Excitement&thrill-seekers

Enjoydynamicandengagingdrivingexperiences

60%

OpentoChinesebrands

Brandheritagelessimportantthanotherattributes,suchastech

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey(N=5121),Zoomonpremium+andluxurysegment(n=1053),May2024.

Note:Premium+andluxurydefinedascarpriceintention>€80K

1Premium+andluxuryconsumersconsideringbuyingtheirfirstBEVinnext12months.2Millennials(58%),GenZ(13%)(70%totalisvs.40%inoverallsegment).

KEYFINDINGS

OpportunityforOEMs:38%ofpremium+andluxuryconsumersareconsideringbuyingtheirfirstBEV

%OFRESPONDENTSBASEDONSTATEDFUTUREVEHICLEPURCHASINGPLANS

10%100%

16%

38%

36%

BEVowners

CurrentBEVowners

Next-waveadopters

IntendtopurchaseBEV

astheirnextvehicle

(assumingbarriersmet)

Longer-termadopters

HaveconsideredBEV,but

donotintendtopurchase

astheirnextvehicle

BEVholdouts

Havenotconsidered

BEVanddonotintend

topurchaseone

Total

Abletoinstallprivatecharger

(vs.70%acrossallsegments)

AreMillennialsorGenZ

(vs.40%acrossallsegments)

Liveinurbanareas

(vs.50%acrossallsegments)

Haveauniversitydegree

(vs.60%acrossallsegments)

85%

80%

70%

74%

Whoarethe

premium+and

luxurynext-waveadopters?

Sources:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey(N=5121).Zoomonpremium+andluxurysegment(n=1053),May2024.

Note:Premium+andluxurydefinedascarpriceintention>€80K

KEYFINDINGS

Thenextwaveofpremium+andluxuryBEVbuyershasdifferentneedsandprioritiesacrosssegments

Keypurchasingcriteriaacrossvehiclesegments1

RankVolumePremiumPremium+andluxury

1

Safety&comfort63%Safety&comfort65%Safety&comfort54%

2Purchasingpricemm43%Sustainabilitymw38%Sustainabilitymw41%

3Sustainability42%Purchasingprice24%Speed&power31%

4Operatingcosts33%

Digitalfeatures24%Digitalfeatures27%

5

Maintenance&repaircosts

19%Operatingcosts

21%

21%

Vehicleupgrades&freshness

6Digitalfeatures13%Speed&power20%Purchasingprice14%

7Speed&power12%

Vehicleemotion&handling

15%

Vehicleemotion&handling

14%

8Vehicleemotion10%

Vehicleugrades&freshness

13%

Operatingcosts13%

9Warranty10%

Exteriordesign12%Interiordesign11%

10Financingoptions9%

Maintenance&repaircosts

11%Brandidentity11%

Keytakeaways

·Safety&comfort(includingADAS)majorpurchasingcriteriaacross

segments2

·SustainabilityrankingunderlinesimportanceforBEVbuyersacrosssegments

·Premium+andluxuryBEV

prospectivebuyershaveveryhighexpectationsondigital

experienceandvehicleupgrades

·Designranksratherlowin

importance,butforpremium+andluxurybuyersitisespecially

relevantfortheinterior

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey,May2024.

Note:Volume=MSRP<€50K;Premium=MSRP€50K≤€80K;Premium+andluxury=MSRP>€80K.

1Question:Regardingyournextvehiclepurchase,whichofthefollowingattributesaremostimportanttoyourpurchasingdecision?2ADAS=Advanceddriverassistancesystems.

KEYFINDINGS

Majorhurdlesforpremium+andluxuryconsumerstopurchaseBEVs

%OFRESPONDENTSSTATINGTHEFOLLOWINGLIMITINGFACTORSTOBUYELECTRICVEHICLES

46%

Chargingtimeandchargingexperience

Lackofhigh-speed

chargers,longwaitingtimes,costsforprivatechargerinstallations

44%

Overallrangeandcoldweatherrange

Predictabilityofbatteryrangeandsusceptibilityofrangetocoldweatherconditions

39%

Carandbatterylifetime

Lowerresalevalue

comparedtoICEvehicle;2nd/3rdownervehicle

attractiveness

36%

Operatingcosts,

especiallyenergyprices

Pricesforpubliccharging,availabilityof“cheaper”

energyforprivatechargers

Keytakeaways

·Premium+andluxuryBEVexperiencenotinlinewith

“luxurycode”:veryhigh

hurdlesforcustomertoconvert

·UnlikerefuelingforICEcars,

chargingexperienceandrangeareintegraltoBEVproductoffering

·Realityvs.perceptiongapsonrange,chargeravailability,etc.needtobeaddressed

·EducatingprospectivebuyersandprovidingopportunitiestoexperienceBEVsiscritical

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey,Zoomonpremium+andluxurysegment(n=1053),May2024.

Note:Premium+andluxury=MSRP>€80K

KEYFINDINGS

ExperiencingaBEVsignificantlyalleviatescustomerconcerns

TOP8(OUTOF33)CONCERNSHINDERINGBEVADOPTION,%

Charging

Intercitychargeravailability

35%

48%

Waitingtime1

40%

47%

Publicchargeravailability

39%

47%

Chargingtime

39%

44%

Detourtime2

35%

43%

Range

Coldweatherrange

40%

45%

Range

35%

43%

EVownersNextwave

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey(N=5121),Zoomonpremium+andluxurysegment(n=1053),May2024.

Note:Premium+andluxurydefinedascarpriceintention>€80K

1Waitingtimebeforehavingaccesstoacharger.2Extratimerequiredtofindacharger.

ConcernsaboutchargingandrangesignificantlydecreaseforrespondentswhohavedrivenaBEV

%OFRESPONDENTSCONCERNEDWITHCHARGINGTIME

44%

–9ppt.

35%

%OFRESPONDENTSCONCERNEDWITHRANGE

43%

–14ppt.

29%

WithoutpriorBEVexperienceWithBEVexperience

KEYFINDINGS

Premium+andluxuryprospectivepurchasersseecurrentBEVofferingsasinsufficientonmultiplecriteria

%OFRESPONDENTSSTATINGATTRIBUTEISNOTWELLCOVEREDBYCURRENTBEVOFFERINGS

23%

21%

19%

16%

15%

15%

14%

14%

13%

13%

13%

13%

11%

10%

Sustain-

ability

ofvehicle

Chargingexperience

Drivingemotions

Interior&comfort

Safety&

security

including

ADAS

Driving

performance

Exteriordesign

Purchasingexperience

Tech&

connectivity,infotainment

Brandstatus&heritage

Custom-ization

Battery

range&

performance

Collectability,Aftersalesheritage,experience

timelessness

Source:BCGBEVAdoptionSurvey(N=5121),Zoomonpremium+andluxurysegment(n=1053),May2024.

Note:Premium+andluxurydefinedascar