【保顾】漳州2020年市场年报

20220211Part1

Part201PARTONEHONGGUANHUANJING12Ø分ØØ2021分1全PMI热⻓点全GDP

国家/区域2019（全年）中国6.11-6.83.24.9美国2.20.32-9.03-2.91英国1.3-2.08-21.46-9.58欧元区1.3-0.3-14.9-4.3图：主要经济体制造业PMI走势（%)••••••70.0065.0060.0057.555.653.852.1•55.00•50.0045.0040.00•35.0030.00•美国欧元区英国中国wind2GDP0.7%⻓3.514.9%分分112.6%分6.8%图：房地产、制造业、基建固定资产投资情况30.001011GDP3.2%-1.6%4.9%0.7%20.006.8010.0011.4%14.9%3.323.3%4.3%-3.501.8%2.6%6.3%6.8%PMI51.452.1954.9PMI53.6201012纳PMI56.857.820105房地产开发投资制造业投资基础设施建设投资6wind3+2025性GDP楼(1.25)55.5%分分分1分性•2

3•20354••5楼4M2shibor1.4%18-196BP缺25BP热,缺图：我国货币供应量、社会融资规模及市场利率走势全50bp10bp50bp20bpGDP60,00012.00M250,00010.0011.1010.5040,00030,0008.40Q111Q29.7Q38.720,0002.882.8310,00001.402019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-098新增社会融资规模（亿元）M2同比(%)SHIBOR:3个月(%)wind5全分全分分12分图：近年中央会议对房地产的表述GDP热6.806.706.506.406.406.206.006.004.902018.42018.10/122020.33.202020.6分2020.82020.9分123412341232018.7.312019.42019.7分2020.4.172020.7.242020.8.26-6.802020.12.11分6全全2020分⽶边际放松，刺激需求政策密集期（7-10月），调控过热城市政策进入平稳期（11-12月），有松有紧7分犀30%⻓20%⻓图：房企信托融资情况图：房企发债总量及全国土拍溢价率（亿元，%）1,8001,600发债规模上涨土拍溢价明显三道红线出台后，融资收紧，溢价率下调；同时发债作为融资渠道的重要补充，规模同比保持上涨。•5分•5432•8分80.0%60.0%40.0%1,4001,2001,000800600发债规模上涨土拍溢价明显发债规模上涨土拍溢价明显20.0%40020000房地产资金信托余额（万亿元）新增信托同比（%）分房企发债规模（亿元）平均溢价率(%)分分wind性3007分10-15BP10%3%分%160%140%120%•12.00%Q311%宏观杠杆率：18-19年上升6BP，今年以来上升居民杠杆率：18-19年上升4BP，今年以来上升•27024510.00%100%80%8.00%164

15160%6.00%40%20%4.00%0%-20%2.00%03845-40%-60%0.00%居民中长期新增贷款增速商品住宅销售额增速人民币贷款加权平均利率wind经济环境及政策对房地产而言——

国际经济环境202年行业站位全球经济预期逐渐好转，疫苗进程影响经济修复速度国内经济环境与金融、实体经济均衡发展，推进都市圈建设经济复苏势头加快，构建双循环发展格局行业政策货币金融政策转向中性偏紧，关注地产金融风险中性趋紧，宏观杠杆率较快抬升下关注风险防范需求侧改革警惕“灰犀牛”风险l继续发挥经济发展“压舱石”作用l调控政策延续稳定性、定向调节l地产是金融政策重要敏感点之一202年Ø中央定调将从需求侧改革、促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，解决大城市住房突出问题，或推行单列租赁用地计划望2021Ø预计后市行业政策将维持“有保有压”，都市圈建设仍有持续利好Ø“三道红线”持续影响高杠杆房企，居民房贷环境趋收敛02PARTTWOZHANGZHOU1202楼1201719

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