英文大前进：下一代电子商务的五个成败真相

Mcsey

&company

Growth,Marketing&SalesPractice

Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce

McKinseyresearchshowsthatleadingcompaniesaren’tafraidtoinvestandaredeterminedtomaketechacenterpieceforthenextgenerationofe-commerce.

byArunArora,KevinWeiWang,RodneyZemmel,andStephanZimmermann

©GettyImages

October2024

E-commerceisundergoingafundamentalchangethatisreshapinghowcustomersbuyandcompaniessell.WhilegenerativeAI(genAI)hasgrabbedthe

attentionofexecutivesoverthepastyear,aquieterwaveoftechnology-driveninnovationiswashing

overalmosteveryaspectofe-commerce.

Thistechnologyinfusionispoweringamuchmorecomprehensiveandintegratedversionofnext-

gene-commerce,inwhichabroadecosystemofcapabilities—suchasR&D,logistics,warehousing,andmarketingandsales—areincreasingly

interconnected.1Withthesedeeperandbroaderintegrationscomesthepromiseofbetter

performanceleadingtogreaterproductivity,higherprofitability,andbettercustomerexperiences.

Tobetterunderstandhowthismoredynamic

andtech-drivenstoryisevolving—specifically,howcompaniesareevolvingtheire-commercestrategiesandwhichmovesaremakinga

difference—wesurveyed500executivesinB2CandB2Bcompaniesacrossmorethanseven

sectorsinBrazil,China,Germany,theUnited

Kingdom,andtheUnitedStates(seesidebar,“Abouttheresearch”).

Ouranalysisfocusedontheactionsofleaders—thosewhoreportedthattheirbusinessesare

growingatmorethan10percentabovethesectoraverage—tolearnwheretheyaredistinguishing

themselvesfromalso-rans.Theanalysisshinesabrightlightonfivetruthsaboutnext-gen

e-commercethatarethecornerstonesofsuccess:

1.Investlikeanattacker.Leadersactlike

attackers,investinginparticularinnew

technologies—suchasgenAI—andnew

channelstobetterunderstandandservetheircustomers.

2.Youcan’toutsourceyourwaytovictory.Leadersarenotdependentonvendorsfortechnology

needs;instead,theybuilduptheirin-housetalenttoinnovateatpace.

3.Technologyisstrategy.Solidtechfoundations

giveleadersthespeedandflexibilitytoinnovate.

4.Youcan’tknowyourcustomersifyoudon’tknowAI.LeadersareturningtoAItogetanedgewithcomplexshoppingjourneysandevolvingstandards.

5.Leadfromthecenterbutempowerteams.

Acentralizedoperatingmodelprovidesthe

necessaryscalebutisonlyeffectiveifitenablesautonomouse-commerceteams.

1“Becomingindispensable:Movingpaste-commercetoNeXTcommerce,”McKinsey,November15,2022.

Abouttheresearch

Theonlinesurveyincluded500respondentsfromBrazil,China,Germany,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStatesacross

B2B,B2C,andD2Cbusinesses.Respondentsrepresentedcompaniesinthefollowingsectors,amongothers:B2Bproducts,

B2Bsoftware,B2Bservices,consumerpackagedgoods,durablesandelectronics,financialservices,andretailandfashion.

Respondentsincludedchiefmarketingofficers,chiefrevenueofficers,chiefstrategyofficers,CEOs,headsofdigital,andheadsofe-commerceattheN-1andN-2level.Thesurveyincluded35questionsthatdelvedintocompanybusinessmodels,industrysectors,companysizebyrevenue,ande-commercecontributiontorevenue.Thequestionsevaluatedtheroleandimpactof

generativeAI,marqueeshoppingevents,customerinsights,operatingmodels,andtechinvestmentspertainingtoe-commerce.

2Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce

1.Investlikeanattacker

Geopoliticaltensionsandoften-conflicting

economicindicatorshaveintroducedamorecautiousbusinessoutlookoverthepastyear.

Ourowntechtrendsanalysissawareductionin

investmentacrossalmostallofthosetrendsinoursampleoverthepastyear.2Thatcautionisreflectedinoure-commerceanalysisaswell.Tellingly,

however,leadersarecuttingcostsatamuchlowerratethanlaggards.Forlaggingcompanies,cuttingcostsisatopthreestrategice-commercepriority.Forleaders?Itdoesn’tevencrackthetopten.

Thatthrough-cycleapproachtoinvestmentis

anestablishedwinningstrategy,3withleaders

outstrippingtheirpeersinthreeareasinparticular:

—TechnologyandgenAI.Almost20percentofleadersaremakinggenAItheirnumberonepriorityine-commerce(versuslessthan5

percentoflaggards)andarereadytospend

(Exhibit1).About30percentofthemare

planningtoputmorethan10percentoftheir

e-commercebudgettowardgenAIinthenext12months(withmorethan10percentshiftingmorethan25percentoftheire-commercespend).Incontrast,fewerthan10percentoflaggardsarematchingthatshift.

ThisfocuspartlyexplainswhyleadersarefindingvalueingenAI,withcustomerpreparationfor

salesreps,softwaredevelopment,andproduct

orservicerecommendationspostingthe

greatestreturns.B2BcompaniesinparticulararemovingstronglyintogenAI,makinglargerbudgetcommitments(11to25percentoftheire-commercebudgets)toitthantheirB2C

counterparts.ThistrendechoesasignificantincreaseinB2Bbudgetsfore-commerceingeneral,accordingtoMcKinsey’slatestB2BPulseSurvey.4

2“McKinseyTechnologyTrendsOutlook2024,”McKinsey,July16,2024.

3RebeccaDohertyandAnnaKoivuniemi,“Revupyourgrowthengine:Lessonsfromthrough-cycleoutperformers,”McKinsey,May27,2020.4CandaceLunPlotkin,JenniferStanley,andLizHarrisonwithVíctorGarcíadelaTorre,“Fivefundamentaltruths:HowB2Bwinnerskeep

growing,”McKinsey,September12,2024.

Exhibit1

LeadersareprioritizinggenerativeAIandmakingsignificantinvestments.

RoleofgenAIine-commercestrategy,¹%ofrespondents

100

Wedon’tanticipatesignificantchangesinoure-commercebusinessandhavemadeno

investmentsinit

80

60

ItwillonlyafectusatthemarginsIt’stooearlytotell

We’remakingsignificantinvestmentsinsomekeye-commercepriorities

40

We’remakinggenAIournumberonepriorityforoure-commercestrategy

20

0

Leaders²Median²Laggards²

1Q:Whichofthefollowingstatementsbestrelectsyourcompany’sviewoftheroleofgenerativeAIinyourbusiness’se-commercestrategy?

2Leaders,withmorethan10%sectorgrowth,comprisethetopdecile;laggardscomprisethebottomdecile;andthemediancomprisestheotherdeciles.

Source:McKinseysurveyofexecutivesatB2BandB2Ccompaniesonnext-gene-commerce,2024,n=500

McKinsey&Company

Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce3

ArecognitionofthegenAIopportunity

underscoresamorefoundationalprioritizationoftechnology.Infact,leadersaretwiceaslikelyaslaggardstomaketechatoppriority(formoredetailsonthespecificelementsoftechnology,seetruth#3below).

—Digitalchannels.Omnichannelcommerceisa

well-establishedconceptine-commerce,but

evenhereweseenotabledifferencesemerging.Ingeneral,leadersaremakinggreatereffortstoextendtheirtouchpointswithcustomersinan

efforttocreatemoremeaningfulinteractions

withthem.Intermsofinvestmentsmade,the

differencebetweenleadersandlaggardsis

greatestindevelopingonlinemarketplaces(60percentversus54percent),direct-to-customersites(56percentversus48percent),andsocialcommerce(63percentversus50percent).

Thesetrendsarelargelyconsistentacross

B2BandB2Ccompanies,thoughthegaps

vary.Forexample,70percentofB2Cleadersareincreasingspendinsocialsellingversus

just56percentoflaggards,while55percentofB2Bleadersareincreasingspendinthatareacomparedwith47percentoflaggards.

Thispushintodigitalchannelsisacrucial

elementforincreasingprofitability,withsome

30percentofleadersreportingthattheirdigitalchannelsare“muchmoreprofitable”thantheirofflinechannels—almosttwicetheshareof

laggardswhosaythesame(Exhibit2).

—Shoppingevents.Morethan40percentof

leadersgetasignificantamountoftheirannuale-commercerevenues(morethan10percent)

fromshoppingeventssuchasBlackFriday,

whilealmost25percentoflaggardsdon’tevenparticipate.AmongB2Bcompanies,almost30percentofleaderssaythesame.BlackFriday

andtheend-of-yearholidayseason,followed

closelybycompanies’ownshoppingdayevents,arethemostimportantshoppingevents,with

companiesplanningtomakemajorspendincreasesinthemoverthenext12months

Exhibit2

Digitalchannelsaremuchmoreprofitableforleadersthanfortheirpeers.

Profitabilityofdigitalversuso代inechannels,¹%ofrespondents

80

60

40

20

0

Digitalchannelsaresomewhatmoreprofitablethano代inechanels

Digitalchannelsaremuchmoreprofitablethano代inechannels

Leaders²Median²Laggards²

1Q:Howdoyourdigitalchannels’contributiontoprofitabilitycomparewiththatofyouro卅inechannels?

2Leaders,withmorethan10%sectorgrowth,comprisethetopdecile;laggardscomprisethebottomdecile;andthemediancomprisestheotherdeciles.

Source:McKinseysurveyofexecutivesatB2BandB2Ccompaniesonnext-gene-commerce,2024,n=500

McKinsey&Company

4Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce

(Exhibit3).Almosthalfofalllargeconsumer

brands5areinvestingmorethan10percentoftheire-commercebudgetintoshoppingdayevents,with42percentofsmallconsumer

companiesand30percentofB2Bcompaniesdoingthesame.

Inourexperience,companiesthatexecute

bestonshoppingeventdaysdevelopwar

roomsstaffedwiththerighttalent—includingmarketers,pricingexperts,datascientists,andengineers—sotheycantrackopportunities

andmakechangesquickly.Moreimportant,

theyinvestinsufficientpreparationwell

aheadoftime.Thatincludesforgingdealsand

partnerships,buildinginventory,aligningon

promotions,andsecuringbothbudgetandheadcount.Italsoincludesbuildingupsufficient

datatodoA/Btests,puttinginplacetheright

analyticstotrackandadjustoffers,andsettinguprapid-reactionsystems(suchastheabilitytosendpersonalizedemailsorsocialoffers).Manytoporganizationsrundifferentscenariosto

testpotentialoutcomessotheyaresufficientlypreparedwhentheshoppingeventshappen.

5Greaterthan$5billioninrevenues.

Exhibit3

Shoppingeventsareacrucialfocusofe-commercegrowth.

Anticipatede-commercespendingonshoppingeventsovernext12months,¹%ofrespondents

End-of-yearholidayseason

BlackFriday

Company’sown

shoppingdayeventAmazonPrimeDay(s)

CyberMonday

Januarysales

SinglesDay(Nov11)

Nationalday(eg,IndependenceDay)

Competitor’sshoppingdays

BoxingDay

Diwali

Valentine’sDay

Halloween

MajorincreaseSmallincreaseNochangeSmallcutbackMajorcutbackN/A

(>20%)(0–20%)(0–20%)

(>20%)

13

5

35

27

28

4

1

3

45

23

24

439

36

18

30

1

7

12

39

41

31

4

11

24

57

5

1

4

8

45

36

13

9

30

5

51

31

8

27

5

55

3

3

9

26

5

54

1

8

4

61

25

3

313

3

11

68

1

4

4

3

51

36

1

4

3

8

22

62

1Q:Foreachoftheshoppingeventsyourcompanyparticipatesin,howdoyouexpectyoure-commercespendingtochange,ifatall,overthenext12months?

Source:McKinseysurveyofexecutivesatB2BandB2Ccompaniesonnext-gene-commerce,2024,n=500

McKinsey&Company

Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce5

2.Youcan’toutsourceyourwaytovictory

Leadersinouranalysisrelyoninternaltalentto

managetheire-commerceefforts,whilelaggardsmostlyrelyonexternalvendors.Thishelpsexplainwhyabout50percentmoreleadersthanlaggardsareincreasinginvestmentinhiringtechnicaltalent.

Companiesneedtobuilduptheirowntechtalent

benchwithproductowners,dataengineers,data

scientists,softwaredevelopers,andotherswhocanworksidebysidewithbusinesscolleagues.Close

collaborationwithincross-functionalproductteamshasprovedtobethebestwaytoworkquicklyand

effectively,andthisapproachoperatesbestwhentheteamisinternal.

Vendorscanprovideleverageandaninfusion

oftalentinsomecases,butbuildingupinternalcapabilitiestoworkonthebusiness’spriorities—suchase-commerce—ismissioncritical.This

reasoningcontributedtoDHL’sdecision,for

example,todevelopaEuropeanInnovationCenterinGermany,whichwillfocusondevelopingtechnologysolutionsinareassuchasartificialintelligence,self-drivingvehicles,robotics,andautomationtodrive

innovation.6

Whilecompaniesbroadlyaccepttheimportanceoftechtalent,theyarehamperedbyanunclearviewofwhatkindoftalenttheyneedandwhat“good”lookslike.TheresulttoooftenisthatHRscramblesto

meettheneedbutendsupbringingonthewrongtypeoftalentorpeoplewithoutthesufficientskilllevel.Incontrast,topcompaniesaredeliberate

inidentifyingtheproblemthey’resolvingor

opportunitythey’regoingafterandthenfocusingontheskillsandproficiencylevelsneededtoaddressit.Duringthisprocess,theyoftenlookforpeoplewithexperienceintheidentifiedareatohelpbuilduptheskillsprofile(andtargetthemforhiring).

Aninternationalhealthcareproviderreversedyearsofrelyingonagenciesandvendorsforthemajority

ofitse-commercetechnologyneedsbybringing

thefunctionin-house.Thecompanystartedby

identifyingtheneedforaseasonedseniorproduct

managerwithtechskillswhocoulddeveloparoad

maptomanagetheprioritiesofsalesteams,doctors,andcustomers.

3.Technologyisstrategy

Inadditiontobringingtechtalentin-house,leaders

haveprioritizedupgradingtheirtechnology

infrastructure.Thatfocusisbecomingincreasinglycriticalastechnologyinfiltrateseveryaspectofthenext-gene-commercevaluechain(Exhibit4).Whenitcomestomaterialhandling,forexample,robots

werethefastest-growingtechnologyoverthepastfewyears,mainlydrivenbytheboomine-commerce(asmuchas30percentCAGR)andwarehouse

managementsystems(17to19percent).7

Traditionally,techinfrastructurehasbeenseen

asanissuefor“ITtomanage,”buttechnologyhas

becomesofoundationaltoacompany’sabilityto

competethattopcompaniesnowtreatitasasourceofstrategicadvantage.Thathelpstoexplainwhy

almost20percentofleadersareplanningtospendmorethan$100millionone-commercetechnologyinfrastructure,accordingtoouranalysis(comparedwithabout8percentoflaggards).Butthisisnot

aboutspendingmore;it’saboutspendingsmartersobusinessescaninnovateatspeedandbuildatscale.

Inourexperience,enablingamoderntech

infrastructurefore-commerceisbestserved

bymovingawayfromdependingonsinglelarge

vendorsandembracing“MACH”development

principles—microservices,API-enabled,cloud-

nativesoftwareasaservice(SaaS),and“headless”(inwhichfront-enddesignisdecoupledfrom

back-endsystems).8Thisapproachenshrinesacommitmenttodevelopingatechstackmadeupofscalableandreplaceableelementsthatcanbecontinuouslyimproved.Theheadlessapproachisparticularlycrucialforlargee-commerce

6“DHLbreaksgroundoncutting-edgeEuropeanInnovationCenterinGermany,prioritizingholisticsustainability,”DHLGroup,November29,2023.

7Basedonexternalmarketreports,expertinterviews,andMcKinseyanalysisonthematerialhandlingmarketinNorthAmericaandEurope.

8ThisapproachisespousedbytheMACHAlliance.Formore,see“MACHtechnologies,”MACHAlliance,accessedSeptember25,2024.

6Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce

Exhibit4

Technologieshaveapplicableusecasesacrosstheenterprise.

Useoftechnologiesacrosstheentirenext-gene-commercevaluechain

Consumerinsights

•Say/do/payanalysisfrom10,000+freetextcomments

•Real-timefirst-partydatabase

•Insightsaggregator

Digitalcommerce

•HyperpersonalizedD2Cconsumerjourneysbasedonindividualpersonasandhistory

•Enhancedandconsistentlyhigh-quality

productdescriptionpageswithbestcontentandimagery

Marketing

•AcceleratedcontentdevelopmentviagenerativeAI(genAI)assistants

•Real-timecampaigntailoringtoconsumersegmentsanddemographics

Organizationalefectiveness

•GenAI–fueledparadigmshiftinhowthe

organizationoperates—lesspaperwork,

fewerPowerPointpresentations,lessemail

R&D

•Expeditedformulationandoptimizedpackagingdesign

•Hypothesesforproductdevelopmentfromconsumerhotlinedata

Digitalbacko代ce

•GenAIforallworkthatinvolvesaggregation,synthesis,recommendation,andknownaction

Manufacturing

•GenAIassist-bottomanagemaintenance

•Identificationofdefectsandanomaliesfromimages

Omni-fulfillmentlogistics

•GenAI–enhanceddigitaltwinstore-simulatedistributionnetwork

•Continuousanalysisoftransportationcontractsforperformanceandrisks

Procurement

•Rapidcreationofshould-costmodels,negotiationscripts,andplaybooks

•Rapidreviewandrefinementofprocurementcontractsforchangingenvironmentandrisks

Sales

•Keyaccountteamcopilottoassistwithjointbusinessplansandsell-instories

•Institutionalizedterritoryknowledge

•Executionassessmentfromstoreimagesandrepcoaching

McKinsey&Company

organizationsbecauseitallowsbusinesses,

products,andregionstoeasilytailortheirstrategiesandofferingstolocalneeds,eitherbybuildingthemorbyintegratingthebestvendoroption.

Amazonpioneeredmanyoftheprinciplesofthisapproach,withitsfocusonAPI-enabled

architecturesandmicroservices.Aninternationalhealthcareproviderisalsomovinginthisdirection,withafocusonusingopen-sourcetechnology,

whichhasallowedittoattractmorequalified

technologists,makesystemchangesquickly,andradicallyreduceitsmaintenancecosts.

Thisshiftisnotwithoutitsownchallenges.

Companiesneedtocommittoactivelymanaging

andupdatingtheplatform.Asaruleofthumb,while

companiesneedtore-platformmajorsystems

everytenyearsorso,aMACHapproachrequires

changingabout10percentoftheplatformevery

year.Companiesalsoneedtohavesufficienttech

talentin-housetomanagethesystems.Inaddition,companieswillneedtothoughtfullymanagethe

transition,givenhowmanypartsofthee-commercevaluechain—fromsalestofulfillmenttologisticstopricing—dependonasinglelargesystem.

4.Youcan’tknowyourcustomersifyoudon’tknowAI

Understandingthecustomerhaslongbeenacoretenetofsuccessfulbusinesses.Buttoday’sleadersareincreasinglysophisticatedandinnovative,

enablingthemtogetabetterpictureoftheir

customer.Theyare,forexample,eighttimesmore

Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce7

likelytounderstandomnichannel(onlineandoffline)

customerinteractions,withinformationeasily

sharedacrosschannelsanddecisionsfocusedondeliveringthebestoverallexperience.ThisfocusisparticularlycriticalforB2Bcompanies,where

ourpulseanalysisshowedthatcustomerdecisionmakerstypicallyusetenormoredistinctchannelstointeractwiththeirsuppliersduringapurchaseandfulfillmentjourney.9

Asmorewaystoshopemergeandstandardsevolve,

understandingcustomersanddeliveringwhattheywant—fromofferstoexperiencestoproducts—willdependonhowwellcompaniescanresponsibly

harnessAI.10Forexample,manyrespondentsto

oursurveyareturningtoAIinitiativestobetter

understandtheircustomersinpreparationfor

Google’splannedphaseoutofthird-partycookiesin2025.

GenAIholdsparticularpromiseinomnichannel

commerce,sinceitworksonunstructureddata

(forexample,videos,reviews,images,andchat

conversations),andabout90percentofalldata

isunstructured.11GenAItools,forexample,can

capture,transcribe,summarize,andanalyzevoicecalls.OursurveyshowsthatbusinessleadersfromCEOstoheadsofe-commercesaygenAIhelps

themunderstandtheircustomersbetter.Personal-clothingserviceStitchFix,forexample,usesgen

AItohelpstylistsinterpretcustomerfeedbackandprovideproductrecommendations.12

5.Leadfromthecenterbutempowerteams

Integratinge-commercecapabilitiesintothe

organizationhasbeenalong-standingthorninthesideofincumbentcompanies.Isolatedteamsor

subscalecapabilitiesoftenleadtoinefficiencyanddisappointingimpact.Onemanufacturingcompany,forexample,had$100millionofinventorysittingin

differentwarehousesaroundtheworld,butnooneknewwhatwasavailable.

Manycompanieshavestartedtoaddressthisby

developingacentralizedcapabilitytomanageand

coordinatee-commerceactivities—infact,thiswasthetoporganizationalmodelamongrespondents.

Centralizedcapabilitiesallowcompaniestocreate

leverageby,forexample,investinginadvancedAI

capabilitiestodelivermassiveanalyticshorsepowerthatteamscanaccessormovingsystemsand

databasesontothecloudtocreatemoreflexibility.

Whereleadersdistinguishthemselvesisin

channelingthesecapabilitiesintheserviceofbettercustomerexperiences.About15percentofleaders

(comparedwithabout2percentoflaggards)

reportedthattheironlineandofflinechannelsarewellintegrated,informationiseasilysharedacrosschannels,anddecisionsaremadenotbychannelbutindeliveringthebestoverallexperienceforthecustomer(Exhibit5).

Aprovenwaytosupportthiskindofdistributed

needatscaleistouseaproductandplatform

operatingmodel,whichcombinestheassets

(products)thatteamsdeveloptomeetabusinessneedwiththecapability(platform)tosupport

thoseassets.13Thinkdozensorevenhundredsof

e-commerceteamsworkingglobally.Shiftingtothismodelrequiressubstantialchanges,includingthe

following:

—modernizingthetechnologystackwithamoremodulararchitecture,exploitingthenew

capabilitiesprovidedbycloudtechnologies,andadoptingmodernsoftwaredevelopmentpractices

—reworkinghowcontrolfunctionssuchasriskmanagement,cybersecurity,andcomplianceworkwithteamssotheyenablespeedratherthanhaltit

9“Fivefundamentaltruths,”September12,2024.

10“ImplementinggenerativeAIwithspeedandsafety,”McKinseyQuarterly,March13,2024.

11AsinTavakoli,HolgerHarreis,KayvaunRowshankish,andMichaelBogobowicz,“Chartingapathtothedata-andAI-drivenenterpriseof2030,”McKinseyQuarterly,September5,2024.

12LisaHarkness,KelseyRobinson,EliStein,andWinnieWu,“HowgenerativeAIcanboostconsumermarketing,”McKinsey,December5,2023.

13AditiChawla,MartinHarrysson,HannahMayer,andMeghaSinha,“Thebottom-linebenefitoftheproductoperatingmodel,”McKinsey,December19,2023.

8Powerforward:Fivemake-or-breaktruthsaboutnext-gene-commerce

Exhibit5

Digitalleadershaveintegratedonlineandofflinechannelstodeliverthebestcustomerexperienceatamuchhigherratethantheirpeers.

Integrationofonlineando代inechannels,¹%ofrespondents

50

40

30

20

10

0

Leaders²Median²Laggards²

Good:wehaveintegratedouronlinechannelstocreateseamlesscustomerexperiences,butchannelconlictsandattributionissuespersist

Excellent:ouronlineando代inechannelsarewellintegrated,informationiseasilysharedacross

them,anddecisionsfocusondeliveringthebestoverallexperiencetocustomers

1Q:Howwouldyourateyourcompany’sunderstandingofcustomers’interactionsacrossonlineando卅inechannels?

2Leaders,withmore