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CHAPTER
PUTTINGALIDONPUBLICDEBT
1
Introduction
Publicdebtlevelsareelevatedaroundtheworld
thedebtbuildupsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(Comelliandothers2023;Schusterand
others2024).Materializationoftheseupsideriskstoalreadyhighdebtlevelsinmanypartsoftheworldposessignificantconcerns.
Highdebtreducesfiscalspaceandthegovernments’abilitytorespondtoeconomicdownturns,crowdsoutnecessarygrowth-enhancinginvestments,andraises
theriskofsovereigndistress(Brunnermeierandothers2016;BrunnermeierandReis2023;Mitchenerand
Tresbesch2023;FarhiandTirole2018).Notably,
sustaineddebtbuildupscanraisetheprobability
ofdebtdistressorbroaderfinancialcrisis(Kose
andothers2021).Evenincountrieswheredebtis
projectedtodecline,plannedfiscaladjustmentsremainuncertain,andpublicdebtisexpectedtoremainwellaboveprepandemiclevels.Further,thesecountries
areexposedtoadverserealandfinancialspillovers
fromelevateddebtanduncertaintysurroundingfiscalpoliciesinsystemicallyimportanteconomies.2
Againstthisbackdrop,thischapteranswersthefollowingquestions:
1.Whatisthedistributionofrisksaroundbaselineprojectionsforpublicdebt?
2.Howshouldcountriesthatneedtogetpublic
debtundercontrolconductfiscalpolicy?How
shouldtheydesignfiscaladjustments—intermsofsize,pace,andcomposition—tostrengthendebt
sustainabilitywhilelimitingtheiradverseimpactonoutputandincomedistribution?
3.Howcangovernmentstackleunidentifieddebt?
Thechapteremploysnewdataandmodeling
techniquestoanswerthesequestions.Thesearethekeyfindings:
•Distributionofrisksaroundthebaselinepublicdebtprojections.Anovelunified“debt-at-risk”frameworkisusedtoassesstheriskssurroundingbaselinedebtprojectionsandhowtheyvaryacrosscountriesandovertime.Theanalysissuggeststhatchangesin
2Indeed,evidencesuggeststhatuncertaintysurroundingUSfiscalpolicydrivestheglobalfinancialcycleinanimportantway,even
aftercontrollingforUSmonetarypolicyshocks(Hong,Ke,andNguyen2024).
andexpectedtoexceed$100trillionin2024.Afteradeclinein2021−22,globalpublicdebtedgedupagainin2023andisprojectedtoapproach100percentofGDPby2030,withtheworld’stwolargesteconomies,ChinaandtheUnitedStates,largelydrivingthe
increase.Althoughdebtisprojectedtostabilizeor
declineby2029inabouttwo-thirdsoftheworld’s
countries,itremainshigherthanbeforethepandemic(Figure1.1).1
Significantupsideriskstothisbaselineoutlook
implythatdebtlevelscouldbeevenhigherthan
currentlyprojected.Thepoliticaldiscourseon
fiscalissueshasincreasinglytiltedtowardhigher
governmentspendingoverthelastthreedecades
(Cao,Dabla-Norris,andDiGregorio2024).Fiscal
policyuncertaintyhasincreased(Hong,Ke,and
Nguyen2024).Further,mountingspendingpressures(forexample,forthegreentransition,defense,
costlyindustrialpolicies,populationaging,andUN
SustainableDevelopmentGoals)—notfullyaccountedforincurrentdebtprojections—arelikelytoleadtoafurtherbuildupofpublicdebt.
Asitis,debtprojectionsaresubjecttoan
optimismbias.Pastexperienceshowsthattheytendtosystematicallyunderestimatedebtlevels:realizeddebt-to-GDPratiosthreeyearsaheadarehigherthanprojectedby6percentagepointsofGDP,onaverage(Figure1.2).Forecasterrorstendtobeevenlargerincasesinwhichdebtisinitiallyprojectedtodecline(Estefania-Floresandothers2023).
Unidentifieddebt—thatis,thechangein
governmentdebtthatisnotexplainedbybudgetarydeficits,interest-growthdifferentials,andexchangeratemovements—islargeandoftenakeydriverof
1Decompositionofgovernmentdebtratiosfor2024−29into
theirmacroeconomicdriversshowsthatinterest-growthdifferentials
areprojectedtocontinuetosupportdebtreductiononaverage
acrosscountrygroups,butsustainedprimarydeficitsandstock-flowadjustmentswillweighondebt.However,debtdynamicsvaryacrosscountries.Theexpecteddebtstabilizationformanyeconomies,
excludingChinaandtheUnitedStates,ispremisedonstill-favorable
interest-growthdifferentialsandplannedfiscalrestraint.ForChinaandtheUnitedStates,sizablefiscaldeficitsaredrivingtheincreaseindebt.
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FISCALMONITOR:PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
Figure1.1.PublicDebt-to-GDPRatio,2000–29
(PercentofGDP)
140
120
100
InterquartilerangeGlobalmedian
Globalaverage
UnitedStates
China
80
60
40
20
Projection
0llL2000051015202529
Source:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlookdatabase.
economic,financial,andpoliticalconditionscanshiftthedistributionoffuturedebt-to-GDPratios.Globaldebt-at-risk,definedastheleveloffuturedebtinanextremeadversescenario,isestimatedtobenearly20percentagepointsofGDPhigherthreeyearsaheadthancurrentWorldEconomicOutlookprojections.
Highcurrentdebtlevelsamplifytheeffectsofweakereconomicgrowthandtighterfinancialconditionsondebt-at-risk.Globalfactors,whichcorrelatewithUSsovereignyieldvolatilityandUSfiscalandmonetarypolicyuncertainty,increasinglydrivethefluctuationsingovernmentborrowingcostsacrosscountries.
Unidentifieddebt,anotherimportantriskforthe
debtoutlook,hasbeenhistoricallylargeaveragingaround1.0−1.5percentofGDPperyear,andupto7percentagepointsofGDPinthewakeoffinancialsystemstress.Thisstemsfromthematerializationofcontingentliabilitiesandfiscalrisksaswellasfromarrears.
•Fiscalpolicytogetdebtundercontrol.Ouranalysisshowsthatcurrentfiscaladjustmentplansfall
shortofwhatisneededtostabilizeorreduce
debtwithhighprobabilityformanycountries.
Cumulativeadjustmentswillneedtobe
3.0–4.5percentofGDPonaverageoverthe
mediumtermtostabilize(orreduce)debtata
highprobability.Themagnitudeofadjustment
neededinmostcountriesisgreaterthanwhatiscurrentlyprojectedandbyhistoricalstandardsformanycountries,especiallyinthosewheredebtisnotprojectedtostabilize.
Newanalysishighlightshowfiscalinstrumentshaveadifferentialimpactondifferenthouseholds
Figure1.2.Three-YearForecastErrorsofPublicDebtProjections,1990–2021
(PercentofGDP)
20
MeanMedian
15
10
5
0
−5LAllcountriesCountriesforwhichdebtis
projectedtodecline
Source:Estefania-Floresandothers2023.
Note:Forecasterrorsaredefinedastheprojecteddebt-to-GDPratiorelativetotherealizedoutcomeforeachcountry.Thebarsshowtheinterquartilerangeatthe
three-yearhorizon.
andthusentailvaryingtrade-offsbetweenoutputandinequality.Awell-designedadjustment—
combiningbothexpenditureandrevenue
measures—cansignificantlymitigatetheadverse
impactsonbothoutputandinequalityandismorelikelytobesociallyacceptable.Keyelementsof
awell-designedadjustmentvaryacrosscountries,
butthepaceofadjustmentshouldbegradualandsustainedtostrikeabalancebetweenfiscalrisksandthestrengthofprivatedemand.Forcountrieswithbenigndebtoutlooks,optimizingfiscalspacewhilemaintainingdebtsustainabilityisapriority.
Strengtheningfiscalgovernanceiscriticaltolimitunidentifieddebt.Greaterbudgettransparencyandcompliancewithfiscalrules—keyelementsofsoundpublicfinances—arefoundtosignificantlymitigatethemanifestationofunidentifieddebtduring
periodsoffinancialstress.
HowAreRisksSurroundingPublicDebtProjectionsDistributed?
Debtforecasts,likeothermacroeconomicprojections,typicallyreflectaverageestimatesofthefuturedebtpathinaneconomy.However,understandingtheuncertaintysurroundingdebtdynamicsrequiresquantifying
bothdownsideandupsideriskstotheforecastandmonitoringtheirevolutionovertime.Thissection
2InternationalMonetaryFund|October2024
CHAPTER1PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
providesaunifiedframeworkforquantifyingtheriskssurroundingdebtprojectionsandzoomsinontwofactorsthataresalientfordebtrisks:sovereignbondyieldsandunidentifieddebt.
Debt-at-RiskFramework
Thissectionintroducesanoveldebt-at-risk
frameworkforassessingtheroleofeconomic,
financial,andpoliticalfactorsindrivingdebt
dynamics.Theanalysisbuildsonandadvancesthe“growth-at-risk”methodology(Adrian,Boyarchenko,andGiannone2019;Adrianandothers2022),
examiningthedynamicsoftheglobaldebt
distributionoveraprojectionhorizonofonetofiveyears(OnlineAnnex1.1).3Theapproachaugmentsandcomplementsexistingtoolsforexaminingdebtrisksbyfirstgoingbeyondtheproximatedrivers
ofdebt(interest-growthdifferentialsandprimary
balances)toinvestigatesalientunderlyingfactors—suchasfinancialstressorincreaseduncertainty
regardingpolicies—thataffectgovernmentdebtanditsproximatedrivers.4Second,itassesseswhether
thesefactorshaveasymmetricornonlineareffectsonthefuturedistributionofdebt-to-GDP.Theanalysishelpspolicymakersgaugehowdebtcouldriseinahighlyadversescenarioandprovidesthefollowinginsights:
•Observablefinancial,political,andeconomic
conditionspredictdebtrisks,withimpactsvarying
dependingonthetimehorizon.Estimatesofdebt-at-risk—definedasthe95thquantileofprojecteddebt—areobtainedfrompanelquantileregressionsoffuturedebt-to-GDPratiosoncontemporaneousvaluesofthevariablesofinterest(Machadoand
SantosSilva2019;Adrianandothers2022).5
Theanalysisisbasedonasampleof74advancedeconomiesandemergingmarketanddeveloping
3Allonlineannexesareavailableat
/en/Publications/FM
.
4Theanalysiscomplementscurrenttoolsinassessingdebt
vulnerabilities,suchastheIMFSovereignRiskandDebt
SustainabilityFramework(SRDSF).Thedebt-at-riskframework
doesnotexaminedebtsustainabilitybutcomplementsothertoolsbyforecastingempiricallytheprobabilitydistributionoftheglobaldebtpathinawaythatallowsfornonlinearity,asymmetry,andstatedependence.
5Theuseofthe95thquantiletoquantifydebtriskisconsistentwiththegrowth-at-riskliterature(whichusesthe5thquantileofthegrowthdistribution)aswellaswiththebroadervalue-at-riskapproachinfinanceliterature.
economiesaccountingformorethan90percent
ofglobalgovernmentdebt.Figure1.3showsthat
adversefinancialandpoliticaldevelopmentsare
consistentlyassociatedwithhigherdebtrisksup
toaforecasthorizonofthreeyears.6Inparticular,
tighterfinancialconditionsdisproportionatelyaffecttherighttailofthedistributionoffuturedebt(redbarsinFigure1.3,panel1),withthestrongest
effectsseenoverathree-yearhorizon.7Forexample,asignificanttighteninginfinancialconditions—
liketheoneSpainexperiencedin2011—is
associatedwithanincreaseindebt-at-riskofabout3percentagepointsofGDPafterthreeyears.
Thislargelyreflectstheeffectsoftighterfinancial
conditionsonthelefttailofthegrowthdistribution,asadversefinancialconditionsraisedefaultsand
reducelenders’risk-bearingcapacity(October2017GlobalFinancialStabilityReport).
Inaddition,tighterfinancialconditionsare
associatedwithgreater“interestrate-at-risk”—the
95thpercentileoftheinterestratedistribution—inthenearterm,becausehighersovereignyieldsraisedebt-servicingcosts,pushingfuturedebtlevels
upward(LorenzoniandWerning2019).Sovereignspreadsalsosignificantlypredictupsidedebtrisksinthenearterm(onetothreeyears).8Forexample,anincreaseinsovereignspreads—liketheoneobservedinSriLankain2022—isassociatedwithanincreaseindebt-at-riskofabout2percentagepointsofGDPafterthreeyears.Highersovereignyieldsalsoaffectbothgrowth-at-riskandinterest-rate-at-risk.This
isconsistentwiththeliteraturedocumentingthat
highersovereignspreadsraiseborrowingcostsfor
bothhouseholdsandfirms,depressingeconomic
activity(Gourinchas,Phillippon,andVayanos2016;Arellano,Bai,andBocola2017)andevidencethat
sovereignbondmarketshavepricedinotherfactors(forexample,adeclineinproductivity)thatworsendebtdynamics.
6Whileitisnotfeasibletocomparethestatisticalsignificanceofdifferentcoefficientsonthe5th,50th,and95thquantilesinapanelsetting,theresultsplottedinFigure1.3areconsistentacrossvariousforecasthorizonsandcountrysamples.Inaddition,thedistributionofcountry-levelordinaryleastsquarescoefficientsisalsogenerallyrightskewedforthevariablesthatareassociatedwithanasymmetriceffectacrossquantilesofdebt.
7Consistentwiththeliteratureongrowth-at-risk,theconfidencebandsforthemedianand5thpercentile,insomecases,overlapwiththoseforthe95thpercentile.
8Similarresultsareobtainedforsovereignbondyields.
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FISCALMONITOR:PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
Figure1.3.QuantileRegressionResults:FutureDebt-to-GDPRatioandFinancial,Political,andEconomicVariables
(Coefficientsonconditioningvariableinpanelquantileregressionsacrossforecasthorizons)
6
4
2
0
−2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1.FinancialVariables—FinancialConditionsIndex
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
4.EconomicVariables—InitialDebtLevels
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
5thpercentileMedian95thpercentile
2.FinancialVariables—SovereignSpreads
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
−2
−2
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
0
0
−2
−2
−4
−4
−6
−6
−8
−8
5.EconomicVariables—PrimaryBalance
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
3.PoliticalVariables—SocialUnrest
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
6.EconomicVariables—EconomicGrowth
135Horizon(numberofyearsahead)
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Thefigureshowstheestimatedcoefficientsfor5th,50th,and95thpercentilesbasedonpanelquantileregressionsonselectedfinancial,political,andeconomicvariablesfor74countriesfortheperiod2009–23.Barsdenoteestimatedcoefficients.Allvariablesexceptforinitialdebtarestandardizedtohaveameanofzeroandastandarddeviationofonetoensurecomparabilityacrosscoefficients.Thewhiskerineachbarshowsthe90percentconfidenceintervalfortheestimatedcoefficient(seeOnlineAnnex1.1fordetails).
Furthermore,economicuncertaintyanduncertaintyregardingpoliciesaffectthedistributionoffuturedebt,withlargereffectsonthelefttail(OnlineAnnex1.1;October2024GlobalFinancialStabilityReport).
Beyondfinancialvariables,politicaldevelopments
suchassocialunrest—measuredasthefrequencyofprotestsreportedinthemedia—raisedebtrisksintheneartermbyraisingeconomicandpolicyuncertainty,andimpactinginvestorsentiment(Barrett,Boulton,andNixon2023)andconsumption(Hadzi-Vaskov,Pienknagura,andRicci2021).9
9Electionsarealsoassociatedwithmoderatelyhigherdebtrisks:
whenanelectiontakesplace,itisassociatedwithbothgrowth-at-riskanddeficit-at-risk(OnlineAnnex1.1).
•Economicfactorshavepersistentandasymmetric
effectsonthedebtdistribution.Resultsshowthattheinitialdebtlevelandprimarybalancehavelong-
lastingandasymmetriceffectsontherighttailofthedistributionoffuturedebt.Higherprimary
balancesreducedebtacrossallquantilesofthedebtdistribution,underscoringthepositiveimpactof
fiscaladjustmentondebtrisks.Furthermore,higherinflationreducesdebt-at-riskinboththeshortandmediumterm(OnlineAnnex1.1).
•Globaldebt-at-riskiscurrentlyelevated,partlyowingtohighdebtlevels.Estimatesfromtheanalysis
areusedtoconstructaconditionalprobability
distributionoffuturedebtfortheworld,aswellasseparatedistributionsforadvancedandemerging
4InternationalMonetaryFund|October2024
CHAPTER1PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
Figure1.4.GlobalDebt-at-RiskandItsEvolution
(Probabilitydensityofthree-year-aheadgovernmentdebt-to-GDPratio)
0.005
-—-2009-—-20202023
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.000
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
0.001o
●
Generalgovernmentgrossdebt(percentofGDP)
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Theprobabilitydensityfunctionsareestimatedusingpanelquantileregressionsofthedebt-to-GDPratioonvariouspolitical,economic,andfinancialvariables.The
globalsamplecomprises74countries—accountingformorethan90percentofglobaldebt—forwhichdataontheconditioningvariablesareavailablefrom2009–23.The
quantileestimatesarefittedtoaskewedtdistributionforeveryyearinthesample(seeOnlineAnnex1.1fordetails).
Figure1.5.InitialDebtandDebt-at-Risk
(CoefficientonrealGDPgrowthinpanelquantileregressionsforthree-year-aheaddebt-to-GDPratio)
LowinitialdebtHighinitialdebt
0.5
0
−0.5
−1.0
−1.5
−2.0
5thpercentileMedian95thpercentile
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Thefigureshowsestimatedcoefficientsfor5th,50th,and95thpercentiles
basedonpanelquantileregressionsofthedebt-to-GDPratioonrealGDPgrowth
differentiatedbylowinitialdebt(firstquartile)andhighinitialdebt(fourthquartile).Barsdenoteestimatedcoefficients.Whiskersinbarsshow90percentconfidence
intervalsforestimatedcoefficients.
marketanddevelopingeconomies.10Globaldebt-at-riskisestimatedat115percentofGDPthree
yearsahead,about20percentagepointsofGDP
higherthanthe2026projectioninthecurrent
WorldEconomicOutlook(Figure1.4).11Theglobaldebtdistributionisskewedtotherightside,withrisksalsosizableatthe75thpercentileofthe
distribution(7percentagepointshigherthanthebaselineprojection,reaching103percentofGDPthreeyearsahead).Inaddition,debt-at-riskremainsasrightskewedasitwasduringtheglobalfinancialcrisis.12Thisreflectstwomainfactors.First,
debtlevelsarehighernowthanin2009.Second,financialandeconomicfactorshavealargerimpactondebtriskswheninitialdebtlevelsarehigher:
10Theconstructionhasthreesteps:country-specificquantile
estimatesareaggregatedusingGDPweights,theunconditional
distributionisrecenteredaroundthedebtforecastintheWorld
EconomicOutlookdatabase,andtheconditionalglobaldebt
distributionisgeneratedusingtheout-of-samplepredictivepowerofeachconditioningfactor(Crumpandothers2022).
11Globaldebt-at-riskis119percentofGDPfiveyearsahead,
about20percentagepointshigherthancurrentlyprojectedfor2028intheWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase.
12Themodelpredictsmedianglobalpublic-debt-to-GDPratiosof
85percentfor2009versus97percentfor2023.Thecorrespondingpredicted95thquantileofglobalpublicdebtis104percentofGDPfor2009versus115percentfor2023.
aresultconsistentwithliteraturedocumenting
howthedebtdistributionvarieswithdebtlevels(Mian,Straub,andSufi2021).Forexample,
whereasanincreaseingrowthof1percentagepointdecreasesdebt-at-riskthreeyearsaheadbyabout1.3percentagepointsofGDPwhendebtisabove70percentofGDP,theeffectisabout0.5percentagepointofGDPandlesspreciselyestimatedwheninitialdebtislowerthanthat
threshold(Figure1.5).
•Debt-at-riskvariessignificantlyacrosscountries
andcountrygroups.Three-year-aheaddebt-at-risk
isestimatedatabout134percentofGDPfor
advancedeconomiesand88percentforemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(Figure1.6),
withimportantdifferencesacrosscountries.For
systemicallyimportantadvancedeconomiessuchastheUnitedStates,inwhichtheprimarydeficitisthelargestdriverofdebt-at-risk,three-year-aheaddebt-at-riskisestimatedtoexceed150percentofGDP,20percentagepointshigherthanthebaselinedebtprojectionintheOctober2024WorldEconomic
Outlook(OnlineAnnexFigure1.1.4;OnlineAnnexTable1.1.2).
Whereasdebt-at-riskinadvancedeconomiesasagrouphasbroadlyretreatedfrompandemicpeaks,ithasincreasedinemergingmarketanddeveloping
InternationalMonetaryFund|October20245
FISCALMONITOR:PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
Figure1.6.Debt-at-RiskacrossIncomeGroups
(Probabilitydensityofthree-year-aheadgovernmentdebt-to-GDPratio,2023)
Advancedeconomies(2020)Advancedeconomies(2023)
Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(2020)Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(2023)
0.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.001
0
7090110130150170
Generalgovernmentgrossdebt(percentofGDP)
3050
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Probabilitydensityfunctionsareestimatedusingpanelquantileregressionsofthedebt-to-GDPratioonvariouspolitical,economic,andfinancialvariablesfor2009–23.Thequantileestimatesarefittedtoaskewedt-distributionforeveryyearinthesample.Dotsindicatethepredicted95thquantileofthedebt-to-GDPratioforeachcountrygroup.
Figure1.7.FinancialConditionsandDebt-at-RiskacrossIncomeGroups
(Coefficientsonfinancialconditionsindexforthree-year-aheaddebt-to-GDPratio)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Advancedeconomies
Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies
5thpercentileMedian95thpercentile
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Thefigureshowsestimatedcoefficientsfor5th,50th,and95thpercentilesbasedonpanelquantileregressionsofthedebt-to-GDPratioonthefinancialconditions
indexforadvancedeconomiesandemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Barsdenoteestimatedcoefficients.Whiskersinbarsshow90percentconfidenceintervalsforestimatedcoefficients.
economies.Differencesindebtrisksbetweenthe
twocountrygroupsreflectsaninitialhigherlevelofdebtinadvancedeconomiesandtheheterogeneousimpactofconditioningfactorsacrosscountrygroups.Forexample,financialconditions(asmeasuredby
afinancialconditionsindexandsovereignspreads),socialunrest,andworlduncertaintyhavelarger
medium-termeffectsondebt-at-riskinemerging
marketanddevelopingeconomiesthaninadvancedeconomies,consistentwithrecentempiricalevidencethatfindstheformertobelessresilienttofinancial
(Ahirandothers2023)anduncertaintyshocks(Ahir,Bloom,andFurceri2022)(Figure1.7).Theanalysisalsofindsthatahigherprimarybalanceisassociatedwithlowerdebt-at-risk,especiallywhencountries
havefiscalrulesinplace,aswell-designedfiscalrulesmitigatetheriskoffiscalslippages(Figure1.8).
Model-estimateddebt-at-riskdoesnotfully
reflectmountingspendingpressuresarisingfrom
thegreentransition,entitlementsrelatedtoaging
andhealthcare,defense,andenergysecurity.Thesecouldexacerbatetheupsideriskstodebtprojections.Forexample,achievingnetzeroemissionsby
midcenturyisexpectedtoincreasegovernmentdebtby10–15percentagepointsofGDPrelativetothebaseline(Garcia-Macia,Lam,andNguyen2024).
Governmentsinemergingmarketeconomiesand
low-incomedevelopingcountriesneedtomakelargeinvestments,ontheorderof3and11percentofGDPperyear,respectively,toclosedevelopmentgapsandmeettheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals(April
2023FiscalMonitor).Accountingfortheseballooningspendingneedshighlightsthechallengesofreducingdebtrisksinthecomingyears.
Figure1.8.PrimaryBalanceandDebt-at-RiskbyFiscalRules
(Coefficientsonprimarybalanceforthree-year-aheaddebt-to-GDPratio)
Nofiscalrule
Fiscalrule1
0
−1
−2LL5thpercentileMedian95thpercentile
Source:IMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Thefigureshowsestimatedcoefficientsforthe5th,50th,and95thpercentiles
basedonpanelquantileregressions(OnlineAnnex1.1).Itshowstheresultsforthe
primarybalanceforcountry-yearsinwhichfiscalrulesareinplaceversusthoseinwhichtheyarenot.Whiskersinbarsshow90percentconfidenceintervalsforestimated
coefficients.
6InternationalMonetaryFund|October2024
CHAPTER1PuTTINgALIdONPubLICdebT
Figure1.9.StrongCo-movementsofSovereignBondYields
(Percent)
10-yearbond(advancedeconomies)
10-yearbond(localcurrency;emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies)Foreign-currency-denominatedbond(emergingmarketand
developingeconomies)14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005060708091011121314151617181920212223
Sources:GlobalFinancialData;OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment;andIMFstaffcalculations.
Note:Thefigureshowsmediansof10-yearsovereignbondyieldsfor27advanced
economies,10-yearlocalcurrencysovereignbondyieldsfor18emergingmarket
anddevelopingeconomies,andmedianforeigncurrencysovereignbondyieldsfor13emergingm
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