东北老工业基地振兴前景展望

东北老工业基地振兴前景展望Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

theNortheast

of

China李凯

教授 东北大学Prof. Li

Kai

NEU目

录Contents东北振兴政策的出台The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be

the

fourth

pole

of

China’s

economic

growth体制改革及其成本问题The

problems

of

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost东北振兴前景Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

the

Northeast

of

China1

东北振兴政策的出台The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.1

政策出台的背景The

background

of

the

policies

promulgation

党的“十六大”提出的政治任务Political

task

raised

in

the

16th

congress

of

CCP

温家宝三次考察东北Premier

Wen Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the

Northeast

of

China

中央政治局全体会议The

plenary

session

of

CCP

(Chinese

Communist

Party)

中共中央、国务院“关于实施东北地区老工业基地振兴战略的若干政策”Policy

issued

by

the

Communist

Party

and

State

Council

ofthe

renaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China

中共中央十六届三中全会The

third

plenary

session

of

the

16th

congress

of

CCP温家宝三次考察东北Premier

Wen

Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the Northeast

of

China2003.1.31

辽宁阜新LiaoNing

Province,

Fuxin

City2003.5.31

辽宁鞍山、本溪、抚顺、沈阳LiaoNing

Province,

Anshan,

Benxi,

Fushun,

Shenyang

City2003.8.1

黑龙江、吉林：大庆、哈尔滨；吉林、长春；东三省专家座谈会HeiLongjiang

ProvinceJiLin

ProvinceDaqing,

Ha’erbin

CityJilin

City,

Changchun

City1

东北振兴政策的出台The

promulgation

of

the

Renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.2

中央支持东北振兴的政策The

central

government

supports

the

renaissance

policiesof

the

Northeast

of

China

用新思路、新体制、新机制、新方式，走出振兴老工业基地的新路子Carrying

out

a

new

way

to

reconstruct

the

old

industrialbase,

with

new

idea,

new

ownership

system,

newmechanism

and

new

method

不同于以往政策，重点在于营造振兴的外围环境Different

from

the

former

policies,

it

emphasizes

theconstruction

of

the

outside

environment

of

therenaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China1

东北振兴政策的出台The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.3

政策重点Policy

emphasis

完善社会保障体系Perfect

the

social

security

system

解决重点企业历史遗留问题Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises

支持重点企业改造Supporting

the

alteration

of

the

crucial

enterprises

税收改革试点Making

tax

reform

experimental

units

资源枯竭型城市改造Re-building

theresource-exhausted

city

生态环境建设Constructing

the

bio-environment解决重点大企业历史遗留问题Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises剥离重点大企业的社会职能（中央财政补助）Splitting

the

social

function

organizations

off

the

crucial

enterprises优先列入全国兼并与破产计划Placing

the

related

companies

preferentially

on

the

bankruptcyagenda处置不良资产（银行）Dealing

with

bad

assets

(Bank)豁免部分企业历史欠税Releasing

the

tax

arrears

of

some

enterprises降低资源税Lowing

the

resource

tax允许新设备增值税抵免Allowing

countervailing

the

value

added

tax

of

the

new

purchasedequipments税收体制改革试点Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast改革要点：变生产型增值税为消费型增值税，允许企业新增设备、厂房、基建等进项在销项中抵免增值税上述政策将在东北主要工业行业中实行试点，取得经验后在全国推广税收体制改革试点Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast预计东北每年可得到100亿税收优惠，新投资企业和老企业改造将得到支持地方财政收入的减少，将由中央补贴东北振兴银行Northeastern Renaissance

Bank预计2004年，东北振兴银行将正式挂牌成立地点设在辽宁省沈阳市资本金50亿元人民币，中央财政和地方财政控股意义：与国家开发银行共同支持东北老工业基地改造；与渤海银行（天津）、淮海银行（待批准）作为区域性银行体系的一部分1

东北振兴政策的出台The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheastern

China1.4

第一批启动项目The

first

projects

总投资610亿人民币，共100个项目100

projects

all

together,

with

investment

of

61billionRMB

项目分布：Projects

distribution辽宁省Liao

Ning

Province52项资金442.1亿元（占72.5%）total

investment

is

44.12

billion,which

takes

up

72.5

percent黑龙江省HeiLong

jiang

Province37项吉林省Jin

Lin

province11项辽宁省重点项目Key

Project

in

LiaoNing大连造船厂扩建DaLian

dockyard

factory

expansion

project大连新船厂扩建DaLian

new

dockyard factory

expansion

project渤海造船厂船坞建设BoHai

dockyard

factory

boatyard

construct

project鞍钢冷轧薄板AnShan

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project本钢冷轧薄板BenXi

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project辽宁省重点项目（继续）Key

Project

in

LiaoNing

(continue)中石油（大连）原油加工（90亿元）Sino

Petrol

(Dalian)

raw

oil

process

(9billion

RMB)辽宁石油乙烯工程

Liaoning

petrol

ethane

project辽阳PVC工程

Liaoyang

PVCproject沈阳高压开关、水泵、鼓风机（共计10亿元）

Shenyang

machine

projects

(total

1

billion

RMB)辽宁省项目分布（52项，总投资442.1亿元）Projects

distribution

in

LiaoNing项目类别Project

sort数目Amount总投资额Total

Investments原材料工业项目Raw

Material

Industrial

Projects26个382.4亿元装备制造业项目Equipment

ManufactureIndustrial

Projects21个51.6亿元农产品加工项目Agriculture

Products

Project5个8.1亿元2

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.1

中国经济增长的四大区域Four

rapidly

developing

regions

in

China

长江三角洲（上海、江苏、浙江），占GDP近¼ChangJiang

delta

(including

ShangHai

city,JiangSu

and

ZheJiangProvince)—takes

up

¼

GDP

珠江三角洲（广东）占GDP约1/10ZhuJiang

delta

(including

GuangDong

Province)—1/10

GDP

京津塘地区（北京、天津、河北北部）Jing—Jin—Tang

Region

(Peking

,Tientsin

and

north

of

HeBei)

东北地区（辽、吉、黑）占GDP约1/10The

Northeast

of

China

(Liao,

Ji,

Hei)

)—1/10

GDP长江三角洲合计珠江三角洲合计东北三省合计上海浙江江苏广东辽宁黑龙江吉林GDP（亿元）5408.76767010636.323715.111674.411674.45458.239022242.9611603.2人口（万人）1334.746477127.3131098642864242383689272810655出口（亿美元）320.55294384.8999.351184.651184.65123.719.917.68161.28面积（万平方公里）0.634110.1810.2621.074117.817.8154619.180.12

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth中国各区域经济状况比较(2002年)2

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.2

东北成为重要经济区域的条件超过1亿的消费人口资源和产业优势：原油产量占全国2/5；商品粮占

1/3；木材占1/2；重型卡车占1/2；造船占1/3；汽车占1/4；钢产量占1/8有工业的独特优势有悠久的制造业传统和庞大的产业队伍2

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.3

东北振兴的障碍产业结构问题：传统产业升级和发展新产业国有企业问题：企业体制和历史遗留问题计划经济体制下形成的政府观念问题东北地区自我启动能力问题2

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.4

重工业的复兴——东北振兴的特殊意义Heavy

industrial

renaissance—the

special

signification

of

ChineseNortheast

renaissance

东北的产业特点：重工业体系相对完整，配套能力强。The

traits

of

the

northeastern

industry—Heavy

industry

system

isrelatively

integrative,

with

strong

compatibility

主要产业：石油开采、石油加工、钢铁和有色金属冶炼、重型机械、发电设备、造船、机车、汽车、飞机制造、机床制造Main

industries—petroleum

exploitation

and

refine,

Steel

smeltingindustry,

generate

device,

heavy

machine,

locomotive,

car

andtruck,

ship,

plane

and

machine

tool

manufacturing,

etc.

产业中心：哈尔滨——发电设备、飞机制造Ha’erbin—generate

device,

plane

manufacturing长春——汽车ChangChun—car

and

truck

manufacturing沈阳——机床、重型机械ShenYang—machine

tool

，heavy,machinery大连——造船、机械DaLian—Ship

and

heavy

machinery2

有望成为中国经济增长第四极Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.5

中国工业化的方向之争The

debate

on

the

direction

of

Chinese

industrialization

新型工业化与传统工业化之争The

debate

between

modern

and

traditional

industrialization

是否需要发展基础工业Whether

we

need

develop

basis

industry

现在是否到了重工业化阶段Whether

we

have

arrived

at

the

heavy

industrialization

stage工业化过程的三个阶段Three

stages

in

the

process

of

industrialization消费品工业居主导阶段，以劳动、资源密集的轻工业产品为主资本品工业加速发展阶段，轻工业产品和资本密集产品共同发展资本品工业居主导阶段，以高加工程度的资本密集、技术密集产品为主中国是一个大国，应该成为美国那样的强国。中国新型工业化道路的核心仍然是工业化，其工业结构应该有强大的基础工业作为支撑，这是中国现代化的必然选择。China

is

a

big

country,

which

should

be

a

strongcountry

just

like

the

US.

The

key

of

the

modernindustrialization

is

still

industrialization,

with

strongbasis

industry

as

the

support,

which

is

the

only

choicefor

Chinese

modernization3

体制改革及成本问题The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost振兴东北，体制改革是关键，要建立混合所有制经济体系

Ownership

reform

is

the

key

point

，the

construction

of

themixture

of

the

ownership

systems

is

to

be

carriedout针对国有企业现状，体制改革要付“清洁费”

the

ownership

reform

should

pay

the

“clean

fee”应由中央和地方分担的统筹解决方案

The

central

and

the

local

governments

should

share

theresponsibility3

体制改革及成本问题The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(1)剥离企业社会职能成本Splitting

the

social

function

cost

from

the

enterprises改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(2)

分离大集体企业成本Separating

the

cost

of

the

collective

enterprises改革成本估算(继续)The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform职工身份转变（买断工龄）The

shift

of

the

employees’

identities

(buy

off

the

serviceyears)养老保险和失业保险、低保补助资金Endowment

insurance

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy3

体制改革及成本问题The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost辽宁省匡算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform剥离企业办社会机构(5年)，费用80亿元；Splitting

the

social

service

from

the

enterprises

(5

years),

whichcosts

8

bn

RMB

(5.4

billion

from

the

central

government

)分离大集体企业，安置职工(5年)，费用100-150亿元；Splitting

the

huge

collective

enterprises,

employing

theemployees

(5

years),

which

costs

10-15

billion

RMB辽宁省匡算职工身份转变补偿(15万人)，费用15亿元；The

compensation

for

the

shift

of

the

employees’

identities,which

costs

1.5

billionRMB养老、失业保险、低保资金缺口，需33亿元The

gap

of

endowment

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy

needs

3.3

billion

RMB3

体制改革及成本问题The

problems

about

the

ownership

and

its

cost经费解决方案The

method

to

solve

the

financial

problem中央和地方共同承担——中央负责中直企业，地方负责地方企业The

central

and

local

governments

share

the

responsibility----the

central

for

the

central

monitored

enterprises

and

the

localfor

the

local

ente