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PREPARINGFORTHEFUTUREOFARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
NationalScienceandTechnologyCouncil
ExecutiveOfficeofthePresident
ArtificialIntelligence,Automation,andtheEconomy
CopyrightInformation
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EXECUTIVEOFFICEOFTHEPRESIDENTWASHINGTON,D.C.20502
December20,2016
AdvancesinArtificialIntelligence(AI)technologyandrelatedfieldshaveopenedupnewmarketsandnewopportunitiesforprogressincriticalareassuchashealth,education,energy,economicinclusion,socialwelfare,andtheenvironment.Inrecentyears,machineshavesurpassedhumansintheperformanceofcertaintasksrelatedtointelligence,suchasaspectsofimagerecognition.Expertsforecastthatrapidprogressinthefieldofspecializedartificialintelligencewillcontinue.Althoughitisunlikelythatmachineswillexhibitbroadly-applicableintelligencecomparabletoorexceedingthatofhumansinthenext20years,itistobeexpectedthatmachineswillcontinuetoreachandexceedhumanperformanceonmoreandmoretasks.
AI-drivenautomationwillcontinuetocreatewealthandexpandtheAmericaneconomyinthecomingyears,but,whilemanywillbenefit,thatgrowthwillnotbecostlessandwillbeaccompaniedbychangesintheskillsthatworkersneedtosucceedintheeconomy,andstructuralchangesintheeconomy.
AggressivepolicyactionwillbeneededtohelpAmericanswhoaredisadvantagedbythesechangesandtoensurethattheenormousbenefitsofAIandautomationaredevelopedbyandavailabletoall.
FollowingupontheAdministration’spreviousreport,PreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligence,whichwaspublishedinOctober2016,thisreportfurtherinvestigatestheeffectsofAI-drivenautomationontheU.S.jobmarketandeconomy,andoutlinesrecommendedpolicyresponses.
ThisreportwasproducedbyateamfromtheExecutiveOfficeofthePresidentincludingstafffromtheCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,DomesticPolicyCouncil,NationalEconomicCouncil,OfficeofManagementandBudget,andOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy.TheanalysisandrecommendationsincludedhereindrawoninsightslearnedoverthecourseoftheFutureofAIInitiative,whichwasannouncedinMayof2016,andincludedFederalGovernmentcoordinationeffortsandcross-sectorandpublicoutreachonAIandrelatedpolicymatters.
Beyondthisreport,moreworkremains,tofurtherexplorethepolicyimplicationsofAI.Mostnotably,AIcreatesimportantopportunitiesincyberdefense,andcanimprovesystemstodetectfraudulenttransactionsandmessages.
JasonFurman JohnP.Holdren
Chair,CouncilofEconomicAdvisers Director,OfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy
CeciliaMuñoz MeganSmith
Director,DomesticPolicyCouncil U.S.ChiefTechnologyOfficer
JeffreyZients
Director,NationalEconomicCouncil
ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE,AUTOMATION,ANDTHEECONOMY
Contents
TOC\o"1-4"\h\z\u
ExecutiveSummary 1
EconomicsofAI-DrivenAutomation 1
PolicyResponses 3
Conclusion 4
OutreachandDevelopmentofthisReport 5
Introduction 6
EconomicsofAI-DrivenAutomation 8
AIandtheMacroeconomy:TechnologyandProductivityGrowth 8
AIandtheLaborMarket:DiversePotentialEffects 10
HistoricalEffectsofTechnicalChange 11
AIandtheLaborMarket:TheNearTerm 13
WhatkindofjobswillAIcreate? 18
TechnologyisNotDestiny—InstitutionsandPoliciesAreCritical 21
PolicyResponses 26
Strategy#1:InvestInandDevelopAIforitsManyBenefits 27
Strategy#2:EducateandTrainAmericansforJobsoftheFuture 30
Strategy#3:AidWorkersintheTransitionandEmpowerWorkerstoEnsureBroadlySharedGrowth 34
Conclusion 43
References 44
ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE,AUTOMATION,ANDTHEECONOMY
PAGE
10
ExecutiveSummary
Acceleratingartificialintelligence(AI)capabilitieswillenableautomationofsometasksthathavelongrequiredhumanlabor.1Thesetransformationswillopenupnewopportunitiesforindividuals,theeconomy,andsociety,buttheyhavethepotentialtodisruptthecurrentlivelihoodsofmillionsofAmericans.WhetherAIleadstounemploymentandincreasesininequalityoverthelong-rundependsnotonlyonthetechnologyitselfbutalsoontheinstitutionsandpoliciesthatareinplace.ThisreportexaminestheexpectedimpactofAI-drivenautomationontheeconomy,anddescribesbroadstrategiesthatcouldincreasethebenefitsofAIandmitigateitscosts.
EconomicsofAI-DrivenAutomation
TechnologicalprogressisthemaindriverofgrowthofGDPpercapita,allowingoutputtoincreasefasterthanlaborandcapital.Oneofthemainwaysthattechnologyincreasesproductivityisbydecreasingthenumberoflaborhoursneededtocreateaunitofoutput.Laborproductivityincreasesgenerallytranslateintoincreasesinaveragewages,givingworkerstheopportunitytocutbackonworkhoursandtoaffordmoregoodsandservices.Livingstandardsandleisurehourscouldbothincrease,althoughtothedegreethatinequalityincreases—asithasinrecentdecades—itoffsetssomeofthosegains.
AIshouldbewelcomedforitspotentialeconomicbenefits.Thoseeconomicbenefits,however,willnotnecessarilybeevenlydistributedacrosssociety.Forexample,the19thcenturywascharacterizedbytechnologicalchangethatraisedtheproductivityoflower-skilledworkersrelativetothatofhigher-skilledworkers.Highly-skilledartisanswhocontrolledandexecutedfullproductionprocessessawtheirlivelihoodsthreatenedbytheriseofmassproductiontechnologies.Ultimately,manyskilledcraftswerereplacedbythecombinationofmachinesandlower-skilledlabor.Outputperhourrosewhileinequalitydeclined,drivingupaveragelivingstandards,butthelaborofsomehigh-skillworkerswasnolongerasvaluableinthemarket.
Incontrast,technologicalchangetendedtoworkinadifferentdirectionthroughoutthelate20thcentury.TheadventofcomputersandtheInternetraisedtherelativeproductivityofhigher-skilledworkers.Routine-intensiveoccupationsthatfocusedonpredictable,easily-programmabletasks—suchasswitchboardoperators,filingclerks,travelagents,andassemblylineworkers—wereparticularlyvulnerabletoreplacementbynewtechnologies.Someoccupationswerevirtuallyeliminatedanddemandforothersreduced.Researchsuggeststhattechnologicalinnovationoverthisperiodincreasedtheproductivityofthoseengagedinabstractthinking,creativetasks,andproblem-solvingandwasthereforeatleastpartiallyresponsibleforthesubstantialgrowthinjobsemployingsuchtraits.Shiftingdemandtowardsmoreskilledlaborraisedtherelativepayofthisgroup,contributingtorisinginequality.Atthesametime,a
1Amoreextensiveintroductorydiscussionofartificialintelligence,machinelearning,andrelatedpolicytopicscanbefoundintheAdministration’sfirstreportonthissubject.SeeTheWhiteHouse,“PreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligence,”October2016(https://
/sites/default/files/whitehouse_files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/preparing_for_the_future_o
f_ai.pdf).
slowdownintherateofimprovementineducation,andinstitutionalchangessuchasthereductioninunionizationanddeclineintheminimumwage,alsocontributedtoinequality—underscoringthattechnologicalchangesdonotuniquelydetermineoutcomes.
Today,itmaybechallengingtopredictexactlywhichjobswillbemostimmediatelyaffectedbyAI-drivenautomation.BecauseAIisnotasingletechnology,butratheracollectionoftechnologiesthatareappliedtospecifictasks,theeffectsofAIwillbefeltunevenlythroughtheeconomy.Sometaskswillbemoreeasilyautomatedthanothers,andsomejobswillbeaffectedmorethanothers—bothnegativelyandpositively.Somejobsmaybeautomatedaway,whileforothers,AI-drivenautomationwillmakemanyworkersmoreproductiveandincreasedemandforcertainskills.Finally,newjobsarelikelytobedirectlycreatedinareassuchasthedevelopmentandsupervisionofAIaswellasindirectlycreatedinarangeofareasthroughouttheeconomyashigherincomesleadtoexpandeddemand.
RecentresearchsuggeststhattheeffectsofAIonthelabormarketintheneartermwillcontinuethetrendthatcomputerizationandcommunicationinnovationshavedriveninrecentdecades.
Researchers’estimatesonthescaleofthreatenedjobsoverthenextdecadeortworangefrom9to47percent.Forcontext,every3monthsabout6percentofjobsintheeconomyaredestroyedbyshrinkingorclosingbusinesses,whileaslightlylargerpercentageofjobsareadded—resultinginrisingemploymentandaroughlyconstantunemploymentrate.Theeconomyhasrepeatedlyprovenitselfcapableofhandlingthisscaleofchange,althoughitwoulddependonhowrapidlythechangeshappenandhowconcentratedthelossesareinspecificoccupationsthatarehardtoshiftfrom.
Researchconsistentlyfindsthatthejobsthatarethreatenedbyautomationarehighlyconcentratedamonglower-paid,lower-skilled,andless-educatedworkers.Thismeansthatautomationwillcontinuetoputdownwardpressureondemandforthisgroup,puttingdownwardpressureonwagesandupwardpressureoninequality.Inthelonger-run,theremaybedifferentorlargereffects.Onepossibilityissuperstar-biasedtechnologicalchange,wherethebenefitsoftechnologyaccruetoanevensmallerportionofsocietythanjusthighly-skilledworkers.Thewinner-take-mostnatureofinformationtechnologymarketsmeansthatonlyafewmaycometodominatemarkets.Iflaborproductivityincreasesdonottranslateintowageincreases,thenthelargeeconomicgainsbroughtaboutbyAIcouldaccruetoaselectfew.Insteadofbroadlysharedprosperityforworkersandconsumers,thismightpushtowardsreducedcompetitionandincreasedwealthinequality.
Historicallyandacrosscountries,however,therehasbeenastrongrelationshipbetweenproductivityandwages—andwithmoreAIthemostplausibleoutcomewillbeacombinationofhigherwagesandmoreopportunitiesforleisureforawiderangeofworkers.ButthedegreethatthismaterializesdependsnotjustonthenatureoftechnologicalchangebutimportantlyonthepolicyandinstitutionalchoicesthataremadeabouthowtoprepareworkersforAIandtohandleitsimpactsonthelabormarket.
PolicyResponses
Technologyisnotdestiny;economicincentivesandpublicpolicycanplayasignificantroleinshapingthedirectionandeffectsoftechnologicalchange.Givenappropriateattentionandtherightpolicyandinstitutionalresponses,advancedautomationcanbecompatiblewithproductivity,highlevelsofemployment,andmorebroadlysharedprosperity.Inthepast,the
U.S.economyhasadaptedtonewproductionpatternsandmaintainedhighlevelsofemploymentalongsiderisingproductivityasmoreproductiveworkershavehadmoreincentivetoworkandmorehighlypaidworkershavespentmore,supportingthiswork.But,someshockshaveleftagrowingshareofworkersoutofthelaborforce.Thisreportadvocatesstrategiestoeducateandpreparenewworkerstoentertheworkforce,cushionworkerswholosejobs,keepthemattachedtothelaborforce,andcombatinequality.MostofthesestrategieswouldbeimportantregardlessofAI-drivenautomation,butalltakeonevengreaterimportancetothedegreethatAIismakingmajorchangestotheeconomy.
Strategy#1:InvestinanddevelopAIforitsmanybenefits.Ifcareistakentoresponsiblymaximizeitsdevelopment,AIwillmakeimportant,positivecontributionstoaggregateproductivitygrowth,andadvancesinAItechnologyholdincrediblepotentialtohelptheUnitedStatesstayonthecuttingedgeofinnovation.GovernmenthasanimportantroletoplayinadvancingtheAIfieldbyinvestinginresearchanddevelopment.AmongtheareasforadvancementinAIarecyberdefenseandthedetectionoffraudulenttransactionsandmessages.Inaddition,therapidgrowthofAIhasalsodramaticallyincreasedtheneedforpeoplewithrelevantskillsfromallbackgroundstosupportandadvancethefield.PrioritizingdiversityandinclusioninSTEMfieldsandintheAIcommunityspecifically,inadditiontootherpossiblepolicyresponses,isakeypartinaddressingpotentialbarriersstemmingfromalgorithmicbias.Competitionfromnewandexistingfirms,andthedevelopmentofsoundpro-competitionpolicies,willincreasinglyplayanimportantroleinthecreationandadoptionofnewtechnologiesandinnovationsrelatedtoAI.
Strategy#2:EducateandtrainAmericansforjobsofthefuture.AsAIchangesthenatureofworkandtheskillsdemandedbythelabormarket,Americanworkerswillneedtobepreparedwiththeeducationandtrainingthatcanhelpthemcontinuetosucceed.Deliveringthiseducationandtrainingwillrequiresignificantinvestments.Thisstartswithprovidingallchildrenwithaccesstohigh-qualityearlyeducationsothatallfamiliescanpreparetheirstudentsforcontinuededucation,aswellasinvestingingraduatingallstudentsfromhighschoolcollege-andcareer-ready,andensuringthatallAmericanshaveaccesstoaffordablepost-secondaryeducation.
AssistingU.S.workersinsuccessfullynavigatingjobtransitionswillalsobecomeincreasinglyimportant;thisincludesexpandingtheavailabilityofjob-driventrainingandopportunitiesforlifelonglearning,aswellasprovidingworkerswithimprovedguidancetonavigatejobtransitions.
Strategy#3:Aidworkersinthetransitionandempowerworkerstoensurebroadlysharedgrowth.Policymakersshouldensurethatworkersandjobseekersarebothabletopursuethejobopportunitiesforwhichtheyarebestqualifiedandbestpositionedtoensuretheyreceiveanappropriatereturnfortheirworkintheformofrisingwages.Thisincludesstepstomodernizethesocialsafetynet,includingexploringstrengtheningcriticalsupportssuchasunemployment
insurance,Medicaid,SupplementalNutritionAssistanceProgram(SNAP),andTemporaryAssistanceforNeedyFamilies(TANF),andputtinginplacenewprogramssuchaswageinsuranceandemergencyaidforfamiliesincrisis.Workerempowermentalsoincludesbolsteringcriticalsafeguardsforworkersandfamiliesinneed,buildinga21stcenturyretirementsystem,andexpandinghealthcareaccess.Increasingwages,competition,andworkerbargainingpower,aswellasmodernizingtaxpolicyandpursuingstrategiestoaddressdifferentialgeographicimpact,willbeimportantaspectsofsupportingworkersandaddressingconcernsrelatedtodisplacementamidshiftsinthelabormarket.
Finally,ifasignificantproportionofAmericansareaffectedintheshort-andmedium-termbyAI-drivenjobdisplacements,policymakerswillneedtoconsidermorerobustinterventions,suchasfurtherstrengtheningtheunemploymentinsurancesystemandcountervailingjobcreationstrategies,tosmooththetransition.
Conclusion
RespondingtotheeconomiceffectsofAI-drivenautomationwillbeasignificantpolicychallengeforthenextAdministrationanditssuccessors.AIhasalreadybeguntotransformtheAmericanworkplace,changethetypesofjobsavailable,andreshapetheskillsthatworkersneedinordertothrive.AllAmericansshouldhavetheopportunitytoparticipateinaddressingthesechallenges,whetherasstudents,workers,managers,technicalleaders,orsimplyascitizenswithavoiceinthepolicydebate.
AIraisesmanynewpolicyquestions,whichshouldbecontinuedtopicsfordiscussionandconsiderationbyfutureAdministrations,Congress,theprivatesector,academia,andthepublic.Continuedengagementamonggovernment,industry,technicalandpolicyexperts,andthepublicshouldplayanimportantroleinmovingtheNationtowardpoliciesthatcreatebroadlysharedprosperity,unlockthecreativepotentialofAmericancompaniesandworkers,andensureAmerica’scontinuedleadershipinthecreationanduseofAI.
OutreachandDevelopmentofthisReport
ThisreportwasdevelopedbyateamintheExecutiveOfficeofthePresidentincludingstafffromtheWhiteHouseCouncilofEconomicAdvisers(CEA),DomesticPolicyCouncil(DPC),NationalEconomicCouncil(NEC),OfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB),andOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy(OSTP).ThisreportfollowsapreviousreportpublishedinOctober2016titledPreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligenceandtheaccompanyingNationalArtificialIntelligenceResearchandDevelopmentStrategicPlan,developedbytheNationalScienceandTechnologyCouncil’s(NSTC)SubcommitteeonMachineLearningandArtificialIntelligence.ThissubcommitteewascharteredinMay2016byOSTPtofosterinteragencycoordinationandprovidetechnicalandpolicyadviceontopicsrelatedtoAI,andtomonitorthedevelopmentofAItechnologiesacrossindustry,theresearchcommunity,andtheFederalGovernment.Thisreportalsofollowsaseriesofpublic-outreachactivitiesasapartoftheWhiteHouseFutureofArtificialIntelligenceInitiative,designedtoallowgovernmentofficialstolearnfromexpertsandfromthepublic,whichincludedfiveco-hostedpublicworkshops,andapublicRequestforInformation(RFI).2
ThisreportmoredeeplyexaminestheimpactofAI-drivenautomationontheeconomyandpolicyresponsestoit.Itconsiderstheeconomicevidencetobetterunderstandthelessonsfrompastwavesofautomation,theimpactalreadycausedbythecurrentwaveofAI-drivenautomationanditsprospectsforthenearfuture,andhowAI-drivenautomationmayaffectworkersinthefuture.Thereportalsoconsiderspolicystepsthatareneededtoaddresstheeconomicdislocationcausedbythearrivalofthesetechnologiesandtoprepareforlonger-termtrendsintheeconomycausedbyAI,automation,andotherfactorsthataresystemicallydisadvantagingcertainworkers.Thereportlaysoutthreebroadstrategiesforpolicymakerstoconsider.
2EdFeltenandTerahLyons,“PublicInputandNextStepsontheFutureofArtificialIntelligence,”Medium,September62016
(
/@USCTO/public-input-and-next-steps-on-the-future-of-
artificialintelligence-458b82059fc3).FurtherdetailsonthepublicworkshopsandtheRFIcanbefoundintheOctober2016report,PreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligence.
Introduction
RecentprogressinArtificialIntelligence(AI)hasbroughtrenewedattentiontoquestionsaboutautomationdrivenbytheseadvancesandtheirimpactontheeconomy.ThecurrentwaveofprogressandenthusiasmforAIbeganaround2010,drivenbythreemutuallyreinforcingfactors:theavailabilityofbigdatafromsourcesincludinge-commerce,businesses,socialmedia,science,andgovernment;3whichprovidedrawmaterialfordramaticallyimprovedmachinelearningapproachesandalgorithms;whichinturnreliedonthecapabilitiesofmorepowerfulcomputers.4Duringthisperiod,thepaceofimprovementsurprisedAIexperts.Forexample,onapopularimagerecognitionchallengethathasa5percenthumanerrorrateaccordingtooneerrormeasure,5thebestAIresultimprovedfroma26percenterrorratein2011to3.5percentin2015.Thisprogressmayenablearangeofworkplacetasksthatrequireimageunderstandingtobeautomated,andwillalsoenablenewtypesofworkandjobs.ProgressonotherAIchallengeswilldrivesimilareconomicchanges.
TechnicalinnovationhasbeenexpandingtheAmericaneconomysincethecountry’sfounding.AmericaningenuityhasalwaysbeenoneoftheNation’sgreatestresources,akeydriverofeconomicgrowth,andasourceofstrategicadvantagefortheUnitedStates.Remarkablehomegrowninnovationshaveimprovedqualityoflife,createdjobs,broadenedunderstandingoftheworld,andhelpedAmericansapproachtheirfullpotential.Atthesametime,theyhaveforcedAmericanstoadapttochangesintheworkplaceandthejobmarket.Thesetransformationshavenotalwaysbeencomfortable,butinthelongrun—andsupportedbygoodpublicpolicy—theyhaveprovidedgreatbenefits.
ThecurrentwaveofAI-drivenautomationmaynotbesodifferent.Forexample,robotshavemadetheeconomymoreefficient.A2015studyofrobotsin17countriesfoundthattheyaddedanestimated0.4percentagepointonaveragetothosecountries’annualGDPgrowthbetween1993and2007,accountingforjustoverone-tenthofthosecountries’overallGDPgrowthduringthattime.6SomeofthatgrowthhasbeenachievedbyU.S.manufacturersadoptingrobots,allowingmoregoodstobeproducedwhileemployingfewerworkersatsomefacilities.AIinitsmanymanifestationsalsoholdspromisetotransformthebasisofeconomicgrowthforcountriesacrosstheworld;arecentanalysisof12developedeconomies(includingtheUnitedStates)
3“BigData:SeizingOpportunities,PreservingValues,”ExecutiveOfficeofthePresident,May2014,https://
/sites/default/files/docs/big_data_privacy_report_may_1_2014.pdf.
4
For
moreinformationaboutAIanditspolicyimplications,see:TheWhiteHouse,“PreparingfortheFutureofArtificialIntelligence,”October2016.(https://
/sites/default/files/whitehouse_files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/preparing_for_the_fut
ure_of_ai.pdf).
5TheImageNetLargeScaleVisualRecognitionChallengeprovidesasetofphotographicimagesandasksforanaccuratedescriptionofwhatisdepictedineachimage.Statisticsinthetextrefertothe“classificationerror”metricinthe“classification+localizationwithprovidedtrainingdata”task.See
/challenges/LSVRC/.
6GeorgGraetzandGuyMichaels,“RobotsatWork,”CEPRDiscussionPaperNo.DP10477,March2015(
/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2575781).
foundthatAIhasthepotentialtodoubleannualeconomicgrowthratesinthecountriesanalyzedby2035.7
SomeexpertshavecharacterizedtheriseofAI-drivenautomationasoneofthemostimportanteconomicandsocialdevelopmentsinhistory.TheWorldEconomicForumhascharacterizeditasthelynchpinofaFourthIndustrialRevolution.8Furthermore,theeconomistAndrewMcAfeewrote,“DigitaltechnologiesaredoingforhumanbrainpowerwhatthesteamengineandrelatedtechnologiesdidforhumanmusclepowerduringtheIndustrialRevolution.They’reallowingustoovercomemanylimitationsrapidlyandtoopenupnewfrontierswithunprecedentedspeed.It’saverybigdeal.Buthowexactlyitwillplayoutisuncertain.”9
Atthesametime,AI-drivenautomationhasyettohaveaquantitativelymajorimpactonproductivitygrowth.Infact,measuredproductivitygrowthoverthelastdecadehasslowedinalmosteveryadvancedeconomy.Itisplausible,however,thatthepaceofmeasuredproductivitygrowthwillpickupinthecomingyears.TothedegreethatAI-drivenautomationrealizesitspotentialtodrivetremendouspositiveadvancementindiversefields,itwillmakeAmericansbetteroffonaverage.But,thereisnoguaranteethateveryonewillbenefit.AI-drivenchangesinthejobmarketintheUnitedStateswillcausesomeworkerstolosetheirjobs,evenwhilecreatingnewjobselsewhere.Theeconomicpainthiscauseswillfallmoreheavilyuponsomethanonothers.Policymakersmustconsiderwhatcanbedonetohelpthosefamiliesandcommunitiesgetbackontheirfeetandassemblethetoolstheyneedtothriveinthetransformedeconomyandshareinitsbenefits.
7PaulDaughertyandMarkPurdy,“WhyAIistheFutureofGrowth,”2016(https://
/t20161031T154852
w/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-33/Accenture-Why-AI-is-the-Future-of-Growth.PDF#zoom=50).
8KlausSchwab,“TheFourthIndustrialRevolution:whatitmeans,howtorespond,”WorldEconomicForum,January2016(https://
/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-
to-respond/).(Thefirstthreeindustrialrevolutionsarelistedasthosedrivenbysteampower,electricity,andelectronics.)
9AmyBernsteinandAnandRaman,“TheGreatDecoupling:AnInterviewwithErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfee,”HarvardBusinessReview,June2015(/2015/06/the-great-decoupling).
EconomicsofAI-DrivenAutomation
AcceleratingAIcapabilitieswillenableautomationofsometasksthathavelongrequiredhumanlabor.Ratherthanrelyingonclosely-tailoredrulesexplicitlycraftedbyprogrammers,modernAIprogramscanlearnfrompatternsinwhateverdatatheyencounteranddeveloptheirownrulesforhowtointerpretnewinformation.ThismeansthatAIcansolveproblemsandlearnwithverylittlehumaninput.Inaddition,advancesinroboticsareexpandingmachines’abilitiestointeractwithandshapethephysicalworld.Combined,AIandroboticswillgiverisetosmartermachinesthatcanperformmoresophisticatedfunctionsthaneverbeforeanderodesomeoftheadvantagesthathumanshaveexercised.Thiswillpermitautomationofmanytasksnowperformedbyhumanworkersandcouldchangetheshapeofthelabormarketandhumanactivity.
Thesetransformationsmayopenupnewopportunitiesforindividuals,theeconomy,andsociety,buttheymayalsoforecloseopportunitiesthatarecurrentlyessentialtothelivelihoodsofmanyAmericans.ThischapterexplorestheimportantrolethatAI-drivenautomationislikelytohaveingrowingtheeconomyandpotentialeffectsonlabormarketsandcommunities.Itdrawsoneconomictheoryandempiricalstudiesofpasttechnologicaltransformationsandappliestheselessonstothecurrentcontext.WhiletherearemanyreasonstothinkthatchangesinthelabormarketpromptedbyAI-drivenautomationwillbesimilartowhathasbeenobservedinthepast,thischapterwillalsodiscussargumentsforhowthecurrentperiodcouldbedifferentfromprevioustechnologicalrevolutions.
Critically,technologyalonewillnotdeterminetheeconomicoutcomesintermsofgrowth,inequalityoremployment.Theadvancedeconomiesallhavehadaccesstosimilarlevelsoftechnologybuthavehadverydifferentoutcomesalongallofthesedimensionsbecausetheyhavehaddifferentinstitutionsandpolicies.Butunderstan
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