曼昆宏观经济学原理第六版讲义【共46张课件】

BasicConceptsClosedeconomyEconomythatdoesnotinteractwithothereconomiesintheworldOpeneconomyEconomythatinteractsfreelywithothereconomiesaroundtheworld1©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofGoodsExportsGoods&servicesProduceddomesticallySoldabroadImportsGoodsandservicesProducedabroadSolddomestically2©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofGoodsNetexportsValueofanation’sexportsMinusthevalueofitsimportsAlsocalledtradebalanceTradebalanceValueofanation’sexportsMinusthevalueofitsimportsAlsocallednetexports3©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.AllRightsReserved.AllRightsReserved.AllRightsReserved.Naturalexperiment–hyperinflationGovernmentpoliciesthataffectforeignownershipofdomesticassets©CengageLearning.Exports–increasedmorethantwiceThisfigureshowsthemoneysupply,thepricelevel,andtheexchangerate(measuredasU.InternationalFlowsofGoodsandCapital:SummaryValueofanation’sexportsNationalsaving-felltoextraordinarilylowlevelsAndtheamountofdomesticassetsboughtbyforeignersRealexchangeratePurchasingpowerparityInternationalFlowofGoodsTradesurplusExcessofexportsoverimportsTradedeficitExcessofimportsoverexportsBalancedtradeExportsequalimports4©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofGoodsFactorsthatinfluenceacountry’sexports,imports,andnetexports:Tastesofconsumersfordomestic&foreigngoodsPricesofgoodsathomeandabroadExchangeratesPeopleusedomesticcurrencytobuyforeigncurrenciesIncomesofconsumersathomeandabroad5©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofGoodsFactorsthatinfluenceacountry’sexports,imports,andnetexports:CostoftransportinggoodsfromcountrytocountryGovernmentpoliciestowardinternationaltrade6©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.TheincreasingopennessoftheU.S.economyIncreasingimportanceofinternationaltradeandfinance1950s,importsandexports:4-5%ofGDPRecentyears:Exports–increasedmorethantwiceImports–increasedmorethanthreetimes7©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.TheincreasingopennessoftheU.S.economyIncreaseininternationaltradeImprovementsintransportationAdvancesintelecommunicationsTechnologicalprogressGovernment’stradepoliciesNAFTAGATT8©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Figure1TheInternationalizationoftheU.S.EconomyThisfigureshowsexportsandimportsoftheU.S.economyasapercentageofU.S.grossdomesticproductsince1950.Thesubstantialincreasesovertimeshowtheincreasingimportanceofinternationaltradeandfinance.9©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofCapitalNetcapitaloutflowPurchaseofforeignassetsbydomesticresidentsForeigndirectinvestmentForeignportfolioinvestmentMinusthepurchaseofdomesticassetsbyforeigners10©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowofCapitalVariablesthatinfluencenetcapitaloutflowRealinterestratespaidonforeignassetsRealinterestratespaidondomesticassetsPerceivedeconomicandpoliticalrisksofholdingassetsabroadGovernmentpoliciesthataffectforeignownershipofdomesticassets11©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NetExports=NetCapitalOutflowNetexports(NX)Imbalancebetweenacountry’sexportsanditsimportsNetcapitaloutflow(NCO)ImbalancebetweenAmountofforeignassetsboughtbydomesticresidentsAndtheamountofdomesticassetsboughtbyforeignersIdentity:NCO=NX12©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NetExports=NetCapitalOutflowWhenNX>0(tradesurplus)SellingmoregoodsandservicestoforeignersThanitisbuyingfromthemFromnetsaleofgoodsandservicesReceivesforeigncurrencyBuyforeignassetsCapital-flowingoutofthecountry:NCO>013©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NetExports=NetCapitalOutflowWhenNX<0(tradedeficit)BuyingmoregoodsandservicesfromforeignersThanitissellingtothemThenetpurchaseofgoodsandservicesNeedsfinancedSellingassetsabroadCapital-flowingintothecountry:NCO<014©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.SavingandInvestmentOpeneconomy:Y=C+I+G+NXNationalsaving:S=Y–C–GY–C–G=I+NXS=I+NXNX=NCOS=I+NCOSaving=Domesticinvestment+Netcapitaloutflow15©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowsTradesurplus:Exports>ImportsNetexports>0Y>Domesticspending(C+I+G)S>INCO>016©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowsTradedeficit:Exports<ImportsNetexports<0Y<Domesticspending(C+I+G)S<INCO<017©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.InternationalFlowsBalancedtrade:Exports=ImportsNetexports=0Y=Domesticspending(C+I+G)S=INCO=018©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Table1InternationalFlowsofGoodsandCapital:SummaryThistableshowsthethreepossibleoutcomesforanopeneconomy.19©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?PasttwodecadesBorrowedheavilyinworldfinancialmarketsTofinancelargetradedeficitsBefore1980Nationalsaving&domesticinvestmentwerecloseSmallnetcapitaloutflow20©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?After1980Nationalsaving-fellsubstantiallybelowinvestmentNetcapitaloutflow-alargenegativenumberCapitalinflowU.S.-goingintodebt21©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?ChangesincapitalflowsArisefromchangesinsavingArisefromchangesininvestment1980to1987Increaseflowofcapital(from0.5to3.6%ofGDP)Declineinnationalsavingof2.6percentagepointsDeclinepublicsavingIncreaseingovernmentbudgetdeficit22©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?1991to2000Increaseflowofcapital(from0.5to3.9%ofGDP)SavingincreasedBudgetsurplusInvestmentincreasedfrom13.4to17.7%ofGDP23©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?2000to2006Increaseincapitalflow(to5.7%oGDP)Investmentboom–abatedBudgetdeficitsNationalsaving-felltoextraordinarilylowlevels2007to,TradedeficitshrankSubstantialdeclineinhousingpricesDeeprecessionDramaticfallininvestment24©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?TradedeficitinducedbyafallinsavingThenationisputtingawaylessofitsincometoprovideforitsfutureNoreasontodeploretheresultingtradedeficitsBettertohaveforeignersinvestintheU.S.economythannooneatall25©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IstheU.S.tradedeficitanationalproblem?TradedeficitinducedbyaninvestmentboomEconomyisborrowingfromabroadtofinancethepurchaseofnewcapitalgoodsForgoodreturnoninvestment-theeconomyshouldbeabletohandlethedebtsthatarebeingaccumulatedForlowerreturnoninvestment-debtswilllooklessdesirable26©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Figure2NationalSaving,DomesticInvestment,andNetCapitalOutflowPanel(a)showsnationalsavinganddomesticinvestmentasapercentageofGDP.Youcanseefromthefigurethatnationalsavinghasbeenlowersince1980thanitwasbefore1980.Thisfallinnationalsavinghasbeenreflectedprimarilyinreducednetcapitaloutflowratherthaninreduceddomesticinvestment.27©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Figure2NationalSaving,DomesticInvestment,andNetCapitalOutflowPanel(b)showsnetcapitaloutflowasapercentageofGDP.Youcanseefromthefigurethatnationalsavinghasbeenlowersince1980thanitwasbefore1980.Thisfallinnationalsavinghasbeenreflectedprimarilyinreducednetcapitaloutflowratherthaninreduceddomesticinvestment.28©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Real&NominalExchangeRatesNominalexchangerateRateatwhichapersoncantradecurrencyofonecountryforcurrencyofanotherAppreciation(strengthen)IncreaseinthevalueofacurrencyAsmeasuredbytheamountofforeigncurrencyitcanbuyBuymoreforeigncurrency29©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.AllRightsReserved.AllRightsReserved.©CengageLearning.LowerexportsBettertohaveforeignersinvestintheU.InternationalFlowsofGoodsandCapital:SummaryTradedeficit:Exports<ImportsTheincreasingopennessoftheU.OpeneconomyCapitalinflowTradedeficit:Exports<ImportsMaynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NeedsfinancedLowerimportsAnappreciation(rise)intheU.Real&NominalExchangeRatesDepreciation(weaken)DecreaseinthevalueofacurrencyAsmeasuredbytheamountofforeigncurrencyitcanbuyBuylessforeigncurrency30©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Real&NominalExchangeRatesRealexchangerateRateatwhichapersoncantradegoodsandservicesofonecountryForgoodsandservicesofanother31©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Real&NominalExchangeRatesRealexchangerate=(eˣP)/P*Usingpriceindexese–nominalexchangeratebetweentheU.S.dollarandforeigncurrenciesP–priceindexforU.S.basketP*–priceindexforforeignbasket32©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Real&NominalExchangeRatesDepreciation(fall)intheU.S.realexchangerateU.S.goods-cheaperrelativetoforeigngoodsConsumersathomeandabroad-buymoreU.S.goodsandfewergoodsfromothercountriesHigherexportsLowerimportsHighernetexports33©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Real&NominalExchangeRatesAnappreciation(rise)intheU.S.realexchangerateU.S.goods-moreexpensivecomparedtoforeigngoodsConsumersathomeandabroad-buyfewerU.S.goodsandmoregoodsfromothercountriesLowerexportsHigherimportsLowernetexports34©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Purchasing-PowerParityPurchasing-powerparity,PPPTheoryofexchangeratesAunitofanygivencurrencyShouldbeabletobuythesamequantityofgoodsinallcountriesBasiclogicofpurchasing-powerparityBasedonlawofonepriceAgoodmustsellforthesamepriceinalllocations35©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Purchasing-PowerParityArbitrageTakeadvantageofpricedifferencesforthesameitemindifferentmarketsParityEqualityPurchasing-powerValueofmoneyintermsofquantityofgoodsitcanbuy36©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.IncreaseingovernmentbudgetdeficitDeeprecessionCapitalinflowInternationalFlowsofGoodsandCapital:SummaryPurchasingpowerparity©CengageLearning.Nationalsaving:S=Y–C–GSolddomesticallyExplainshowpricelevelaffectsnominalexchangerate©CengageLearning.P*–priceindexforforeignbasketReasonablefirstapproximationTheincreasingopennessoftheU.LowerexportsNationalsaving-felltoextraordinarilylowlevelsImplicationsofPPPIfpurchasingpowerofthedollarIsalwaysthesameathomeandabroadThentherealexchangeratecannotchangeTheoryofpurchasing-powerparityNominalexchangeratebetweenthecurrenciesoftwocountriesMustreflectthepricelevelsinthosecountries37©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NominalexchangerateduringahyperinflationNaturalexperiment–hyperinflationHighinflationAriseswhenagovernmentprintsmoneytopayforlargeamountsofgovernmentspendingGermanhyperinflation,early1920sMoneysupply,pricelevel,nominalexchangerateMovecloselytogether38©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NominalexchangerateduringahyperinflationGermanhyperinflation,early1920sMoneysupply-startsgrowingquicklyPricelevel–startsgrowingDepreciationMoneysupply-stabilizesPricelevel–stabilizesExchangerate–stabilizes39©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.NominalexchangerateduringahyperinflationQuantitytheoryofmoneyExplainshowthemoneysupplyaffectspricelevelPurchasingpowerparityExplainshowpricelevelaffectsnominalexchangerate40©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword-protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse.Figure3Money,Prices,andtheNominalExchangeRateduringtheGermanHyperinflationThisfigureshowsthemoneysupply,thepricelevel,andtheexchangerate(measuredasU.S.centspermark)fortheGermanhyperinflationfromJanuary1921toDecember1924.Noticehowsimilarlythesethreevariablesmove.Whenthequantityofmoneystartedgrowingquickly,thepricelevelfollowed,andthemarkdepreciatedrelativetothedollar.WhentheGermancentralbankstabilizedthemoneysupply,thepricelevelandexchangeratestabilizedaswell.41©CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwitha