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TheRiseofSubscriptionModels:RevolutionizingTruckOwnership
Exploringthebenefitsandacceptanceofflexiblefleetsolutions
Executivesummary
Arecentsurveyoftruckcustomers
conductedbyCapgeminisupports
majortruckOEMs’existingbeliefs
andexpectationsforsubscription
models,particularlythoserelating
toelectricvehicles.Theresearchalso
addsimportantinsights,forexample
thatmanycustomerswouldprefer
toobtainsubscriptionsdirectlyfrom
manufacturers,andthatsubscriptionscouldhelptoovercometheperceptionthatelectricvehiclesarenotaffordable.Inthisreport,wecommentonthe
resultsandproposeactionsthattruckOEMsshouldbeinitiatingnow,suchascreatingastrategytoaddresskeycustomerconcerns,andinforming
customersbetteronissueslikethe
respectivetotalcostofownership/useforconventionalandelectrictrucks.
2TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
Contents
Introduction5
Researchmethod6
Summaryoffindings7
Findingspart1:marketacceptabilityofthesubscriptionmodel7
Findingspart2:marketreadinessforcommercialelectricvehicles12
Discussionandrecommendations15
HowCapgeminihelpsclients17
implementsubscriptionmodels
Authors19
3
“Inthepassengercarsector,wecan
alreadyobservethatmovingfromICE
vehiclestoEVsisassociatedwithamovefromownershiptousage–implyingthatsubscriptionmodelswillbecomemore
popular.Ournewstudysuggeststhat
thistrendcouldbeevenmoresignificantfortrucks,partlybecauseofaffordabilityissuesbutalsobecauseofuncertainty
aboutEVsandtheirimpactonresidual
values.Thestudyalsopointstothe
potentialofsubscriptionstoaccelerate
uptakeofzero-emissionvehicles.This
findingshouldgeneratefurtherdiscussion
andapossiblerethinkofcurrentapproachestopromotingEVs.”
LaurenceNoël
HeadofGlobalAutomotiveIndustryCapgemini
4TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
Introduction
Majortruckmanufacturersareactivelyexploringnewownershipmodels,includingsubscriptionmodels.Inthesemodels,customerspayforthe
useoftruckswhilethemanufacturerorotherserviceproviderretainsownershipoftheassets.Therearevariantswherecustomerstake
ownershipofthevehiclesbutobtainbatteriesonasubscriptionbasis.
However,thereisalackofharddataaboutthelevelsofacceptanceforthemodelsamongtruckcustomers,andaboutcustomerexpectationsandpreferences.
Toshedlightonthesequestions,Capgeminirecentlyconductedasurveywhichexploredtheacceptabilitytotruckcustomersofsubscription
services,alongwithrelatedissuessuchaswillingnesstopayapremium,andwhichservicesshouldbeincludedinthesubscriptionmodel.
Wealsoinvestigatedourrespondents’preferencesforelectricvehicles
(EVs)versusinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesandusedtheresultstohelpusinterpretthefindingsaboutsubscriptions1.Wediscoveredsomeinterestingdifferencesbetweenthepreferencesofthesetwogroupswithrespecttosubscriptions.
Overall,thefindingsconfirmwhatwealreadyknewaboutsubscriptionsforcommercialvehicles,andsomajorOEMswhohavealreadygoneaheadin
thisareacanbeassuredthattheyarebroadlypursuingtherightstrategies.Butwealsomadesomesurprisingandpotentiallyhelpfuldiscoveries,whichwarrantfurtherinvestigation.
Thisreportoutlinesandcommentsonourresults,beforemakingsomerecommendationsforfurtherresearchandactions.
1.Pleasenotethatinthisreportweusetheterm“EVs”tocoverbothbatteryelectric
vehicles(BEVs)andhydrogenfuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs),unlessotherwisestated.
5
Researchmethod
NinetyrespondentsfromtruckcustomersinGermany,allofwhomwereascertainedtohaveastrong
engagementinthismarket,tookpartinthisonline
survey(Figure1).WedecidedtoresearchGermany
initiallybecausethismarketisespeciallyreceptiveto
newsalesmodelsandhasastrongimpetustomove
tozeroemissions.InthefuturewearekeentoexpandthisresearchtocoverthewholeofEurope,andperhapsNorthAmericaandChina.
Figure1:Backgroundtothesurvey
Surveyobjective
Theprimaryobjectiveofthesurveywastogatherdataontheacceptanceand
preferredimplementationofthetrucksubscriptionmodelintheGermanmarketanditsreadinesstouseelectricvehicles.
Surveyscope
andrespondents
Respondents’country
Numberofrespondents
90
Useofthefollowing
inrespondents'companies
•Heavyvehicles
•Bigbuses
•Tractors
•Specialvehicles
6TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
7
Summaryof
findings
Findingspart1:marketacceptabilityofthesubscriptionmodel
First,weexploredourrespondents’generalviewsonthesubscriptionmodel,andwhattheythinktheadvantagesanddisadvantagesfortheircompaniesare.
Perceivedadvantagesanddisadvantagesofsubscriptionmodels
Figure2:Reasonsforacceptanceofsubscriptionmodelsfortrucks
20%
Betterabilitytoplanexpensesduetoshortercommitmentperiods
25%
Abilitytotestaparticularvehiclemodel(e.g.anEV)overalongerperiodoftime
42%
Flexibilitytoabsorbshort-termcapacitypeaks
Thebiggestreasonforwantingtoadoptthe
subscriptionmodelistogaintheflexibilitytoabsorb
short-termcapacitypeaks(atechniquecalled“peak
shaving”),mentionedby42%ofrespondents(Figure
2).Thisfindingreflectsthefactthattheirbusinesses
habituallyfacefluctuatingdemand–perhapsmorethanusualgivencurrentlevelsofeconomicuncertaintyanddisruption,particularlytothesupplychain.Peakshavingisalsoanimportanttoolfordealingwithseasonal
demand,forexampleintherun-uptoChristmas.
Otherreasonsforacceptanceincludethedesiretotryoutspecificvehiclemodels,whichprobablyreflects
aninterestinexperimentingwithnewtechnologieswithoutlong-termcommitments.Themodelisalso
seenasusefulforplanningexpenditure,thankstotheshortercommitmentperiodsinvolved.
Whenaskedabouttheirreservationssurrounding
subscriptionmodels,respondentsoftenmentionthe
perceptionthatsubscriptionsareassociatedwith
highcosts–afindingthatreflectsthismarket’spricesensitivity(Figure3).
Tofindoutmore,theresearchinvestigatedhowlargeapremiumcompaniesarepreparedtopayforasubscriptionmodeloveralong-termlease,
Figure3:Objectionstosubscriptionmodelsfortrucks
25%
Complexityinprocessing/
62%
administrationHighcosts
andanalyzedtheresultsaccordingtowhetherthe
respondentisconsideringEVsornot.AsFigure12
shows,amajorityofrespondentsareconsideringEVs,atleasttosomeextent.
Interestingly,potentialEVcustomersarewillingto
paya10-15%premium,whereasthosewhopreferICEvehiclesareonlypreparedtopay5-10%(Figure4).
Figure4:Howmuchpremiumarerespondentswillingtopayforasubscriptionmodel?
15%
RespondentsconsideringEVuse
5%
RespondentsNOTconsideringEVuse
Asanotherpotentialobjectiontosubscriptions,respondentsalsomentioncomplexityof
administration,suggestingthattheydonotyet
associatesubscriptionswiththestraightforward,user-friendlymodelsthattheyprefer.
Preferredapplicationsforthesubscriptionmodel
Wealsotookamoredetailedlookathowrespondentsenvisageusingsubscriptionmodelswithintheir
businesses,withrespecttotheclassofvehicle,range
Around53%ofrespondentsareconsideringintegrating
BatteryElectricVehicles
(BEV)andFuelCellElectric
Vehicles(FCEV)intotheir
fleets.Thisgrowinginterestineco-friendlyoptionsis
accompaniedbyareadinesstoinvestinpremiumservices.ThoseconsideringEVsof
eithertypearewillingto
paya15%premiumfora
subscriptionmodel,whereasotherswillpayjust5%
premium.
overwhichtouseit,andsubscriptionperiod.WeagaincomparedtheresponsesforthoseconsideringEVs
versustherest.
Figure5:Optimalvehicleclassforsubscriptions
RespondentsconsideringEVuse·RespondentsNOTconsideringEVuse
Veryheavytrucks
HeavytrucksMedium-dutytrucks
LighttrucksLightcommercialtrucks
22%13%
19%21%15%
21%
Veryheavytrucks
25%
29%
29%
HeavytrucksMedium-dutytrucks
26%
LighttrucksLightcommercialtrucks
8TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
AsshowninFigure5,respondentsconsideringEVs
optforlighttomedium-dutytrucksbecausethey
haveenoughpositiveexperienceandknowledgeto
integratethosetrucksintotheirdailyschedulesand
routes.ThosepreferringICEvehiclesaremorelikely
inthelong-haulbusiness;thisexplainstheirdifferent
viewsregardingvehicleclassessuitableforsubscriptionmodels.Overall,heavytrucksareslightlylessfavoredcandidatesforsubscriptions,possiblyduetotheir
highercostsorspecificusagepatterns.Thisresponsemightalsobeduetothefactthatplanningtheusageoflong-haultrucksisofteneasierforcompaniesthanplanningmorelocalactivities,andsotheyarenot
lookingforabetterwaytodoit.
Questionedaboutthedistancerangeswherethey
wouldbelikelytoadoptsubscriptionmodels,
respondentsindicatethatthesemodelsareapplicableacrosslocal(upto50km),regional(51-150km),andlong-distance(151km+)ranges,withregionalusagelikelytobehighest(Figure7).Thissuggeststhattheflexibilityofsubscriptionscouldberelevanttoarangeofbusiness
needs,fromlocaldeliveriestolong-haultransportation.
Figure6:Preferreddistancerangesforadoptionofsubscriptionmodels
30%28%
LongdistanceLocalarea
42%
Regionalarea
Takentogether,thisandthepreviousfindingmay
implythatsubscriptiontrucksareseenasmostusefulforthetrafficbetweenregionaldepotsandtheend-
customeror(insomecases)localhubs.Itisgenerally
known–andconfirmedbythird-partyresearch–thattruckcustomersenvisagesimilarapplicationsforEVs,suggestingsynergiesbetweensubscriptionmodelsandelectrictrucks.
Whenitcomestocommitmentperiods,respondentsdemonstrateapreferenceforathree-monthperiod(Figure7).Thisfindingsuggeststhatbusinessesvalueshort-termcommitmentsforbetteradaptabilityandfinancialplanning.
Figure7:Preferredperiodforwhichtocommittoasubscription
15%
12
1%
9
24%
6
32%
3
7%
2
11%
1
Wefindthisresultslightlysurprisingaswewould
expectrespondentstopreferashortercommitmentperiodformaximumflexibility,especiallyinthelightofthedesireforpeakshaving.
Months
ThewillingnessofrespondentsconsideringEVstopaya
significantpremiumfor
subscriptionsindicatesarobustmarketpotentialforthismodel
amongfleetoperatorsprioritizingsustainabilityandinnovation.
9
Preferencesfordeliveryofthesubscriptionmodel
Next,weaskedformoredetailabouthowcompanieswouldliketoobtaintrucksubscriptions–including
whotheywouldliketoprovidethesubscriptions,
whethertheypreferafixedoraflexibleoffer,andtheirexpectationsaboutleadtimes.Wealsodiscussedwhattypeofenginetheywouldbelookingforinavehicle
obtainedbysubscription.
Figure8:Whoshouldofferthesubscriptionmodel?
Newsupplier,e.g.start-up
LeasingcompanywithwhichIdonothaveabusinessrelationshipyet
LeasingcompanywithwhichIalreadyhaveabusinessrelationship
Manufacturer
6%
11%
21%
49%
Interestingly,respondentsshowamarked
preferenceforobtainingsubscriptionsdirectlyfrom
manufacturers,with49%choosingthisoption(Figure8).Leasingcompaniesandnewsuppliersbothranksomewaybehindmanufacturers.
Formanufacturers,thispreferenceisaheartening
finding,andnotjustbecauseitlikelyindicatestrustinOEMs’establishedqualityandservicestandards.Italsoopensuppossibilitiesforfuturerevenuestreams.
Theseideashaveautomotivesustainabilitybenefitsaswellascommercialones,andwe’llreturntothemlater.
Slightlymorethanhalfofrespondentspreferaflexibleofferwithselectablemodulestoafixedone(Figure9).
Figure9:Shouldcustomersbeabletochoosedifferentmoduleswithinthesubscriptionmodel?
54%46%
Fixedofferwith
predefinedservicemodels
Flexibleofferwithfreelyselectablemodules
Thispreferencealignswiththedesireforcustomizable,adaptablesolutions,seeninallsectorsoftoday’s
automotiveindustry.
10TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
11
Figure10:Mostexpectedcomponentsinasubscriptionoffer
Maintenanceand
wearandtear
Insurance
24/7customerservice
Whenrespondentsareaskedwhichspecific
componentscompanieswouldliketoseeincludedin
theoffer,maintenanceandmakinggoodwearandteararethefirstchoice,followedbyinsurance,andthen
24/7customerservice(Figure10).
Whenitcomestoexpectationsabouttheleadtimefordeliveryofavehicleiftheytakeoutasubscription,themajoritypreferaleadtimeoflessthan1week(30%)tolessthan4weeks(24%).Thisindicatestheimportanceofquickserviceandhighvehicleavailabilitywhen
planningasubscription-basedoperation.
Wenowcometotheimportantquestionofwhatformofenginerespondentswouldchooseinrelationto
subscriptions.
Figure11:Preferreddrivetrainsforsubscriptions
28%
Pureelectric
42%
Diesel
9%
21%
Gasoline
Hybriddrive
Dieselaccountsforthehighestshareoftheresponses(42%overall),probablyreflectingitscurrentdominanceandampleinfrastructuresupportratherthanany
entrenchedpreference(Figure11).
Infact,pureelectricandhybridmodelstogetherarechosenbyevenmorerespondents(49%),suggestingconcernaboutenvironmentalconsiderationsand
opennesstonewtechnologies.(And,ifweconsideronlythelargestcompanies’responses,pureelectricemergesasthemostpopularoption.)
Theseresultspaintanencouragingpictureofthe
prospectsforelectrification.Theproportionof
respondentspreferringpureelectric–28%–might
seemlowatfirstsight,butitissignificantlymorethanpureelectric’sshareofthecurrentfleetinGermany.
Pureelectricandhybridmodels
togetherattract49%of
respondents,reflectinggrowingenvironmentalconcernsand
interestinnewtechnologies.Amongthelargestcompanies,pureelectricvehiclesarethemostpopular.
Findingspart2:marketreadinessforcommercialelectricvehicles
Respondents’interestinelectricvehicles
Aswehavejustseen,ourresearchrevealsencouraginglevelsofinterestinelectricorhybridvehiclesinthe
contextofasubscriptionmodel.Thenextsegment
ofourresearchprobesthisinterestfurther,byasking
abouttheextenttowhichorganizationsareconsideringEVsandwhattheyseeasthemainadvantagesand
barriersassociatedwithelectrification.
Figure12:AmajorityofrespondentsarealreadyconsideringtheuseofEVsintheirfleets
22%
40%
Notconsideringatall
Somewhatconsidering
▲
13%
25%
StronglyconsideringNotconsideringmuch
Whenquestionedinthisslightlydifferentway,asmanyas22%ofrespondentssaytheyhavenotconsidered
electrificationatall,while25%haveonlyconsidereditalittle(Figure12).Thisseemsratherdisappointinggiventhemanyreasonstoconsiderit,including
environmentalconcerns,regulatorypressures,andadvancementsinEVtechnology.
Askedabouttheadvantagesofelectrification,manyrespondentsemphasizelocalemission-freeoperationandimprovedimage,highlightingenvironmentalandsocialresponsibilityconsiderations(Figure13).
Figure13:PerceivedadvantagesofusingEVs
Locallyemission-free,especiallyinurbanareas.
Improvedimageduetotheuseofenvironmentallyfriendlycommercialvehicles.
Mediaattentionandadvertisingeffectivenessasaperceivedfirstmover.
11%
8%
25%
12TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
Figure14:PerceiveddisadvantagesofusingEVs
Lowrange
Highacquisitioncosts Longidletimes(chargingtimes)Lowerpayload(duetobatteryweight)Highelectricitycosts
Highmaintenancecosts
33%
28%
18%
4%
37%
37%
Highacquisitioncostsandrangeanxietyremain
significantbarrierstoEVadoption,alongwithconcernsaboutchargingtimesandpayloadcapacity(Figure14).
Drillingdownintothedatauncoverssomeinterestinganglesonthisfinding.Forexample,ifwelookonlyat
respondentswhoareactivelyconsideringEVs,then
highercostsareabiggerconcernthanrange,whereasthosewhoarenotconsideringEVsaremoreconcerned
aboutrangethancost.Thissuggeststhatmore
knowledgeaboutEVs,includingtheiradvantagesandchallenges,leadstogreateracceptance.
Itisalsoworthnotingthatconcernsaboutacquisitioncostscouldbeusedtoargueforthesubscription
model.Indeed,Capgeminiresearchforvarious
commercialvehicleclientssuggeststhat,withbroad
usageofaholisticecosystemofservicesaugmentingtheEVtruck,thetotalcostofuse(TCU)couldbemuchlowerforEVsthanforconventionalICEvehicles.ThisobservationcouldhelpOEMstosellbothEVsand
subscriptionmodels.
13
GainingacceptanceforEVs
Finally,weaskedthoserespondentswhoare
consideringEVsaboutfactorsthatwillsecuretheir
acceptance,andspecificallyabouthowtheyprefertopayforcharging(flatrateversuspaymentperkWh).
Whenchoosingfactorsthatwouldsecuretheir
acceptanceofEVs,respondentstendtoemphasize
rangeandprice,suggestingthatpracticalityandcost-
effectivenessarekeytowideradoption(Figure15).
However,inbothcasesthepicturemayalreadybemorepositivethancompaniesrealize,soaswe’lldiscusslater,OEMsmayneedtoputmoreeffortintoinformingtheircustomers.
Figure15:MostimportantfactorsthatwouldconvincerespondentstouseEVs
Range
Price
PayloadCharginginfrastructure Chargingspeed PerformanceSustainability
TCO/TCU
13%
7%6%
4%
2%2%2%
21%
Chargingforenergy
Overall,numbersaresplitalmostequallybetween
RespondentswhoareinterestedinEVsfavorseparate
wantingtopayforelectricityaspartoftheusagefee
chargingforenergyconsumption,whereasthosewho
orbeingbilledseparatelyforit.Butaninteresting
wanttostaywithconventionalICEvehiclespreferanall-
pictureemergesfromanalyzingtheresultsaccordingtowhethertherespondentsareconsideringEVsorpreferICEvehicles.
inclusivesubscriptionthatincludesenergycosts(Figure16).
ig
Figure16:Shouldchargingbebilledseparatelyorincludedinthesubscriptionfee?
RespondentsconsideringtheuseofEVsRespondentsNOTconsideringtheuseofEVs
All-inclusivechargingcardwhereelectricityisincludedintheusagefee
Chargingcardthatisbilledandpaidforseparately
26%
21%
18%
30%
14TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
15
Discussionand
recommendations
Subscriptionmodelspresentimportant
opportunitiesforcommercialvehicleOEMs
TheseresultstellusthatthemajorityoftransportationcompaniestrustOEMsoverotherstoprovidethem
withasubscriptionmodel.Offeringsubscriptionscanthereforebeanexcellentstrategyformaximizingtrucksales.
Themodelpresentsarangeofadditionalopportunities,forexample:
•Offeringservicesthataremoreeasilypossible
withsubscriptionsbecausetheydependonthe
OEMowningthetruck.Examplesincludebattery
swapping,energygridservices,andtransportationasaservice.
•ReducingtheTCUfornewdrivetrains(seepanel),perhapsbyexploitingscalingeffectsnotaccessibletotheircustomers,includinglargerfleetsandgrid-relatedserviceslikeuploadingelectricityfromEVbatteries.
Reducingtotalcostofusefornewdrivetrains
PreliminaryresultsfromresearchconductedbyCapgeminiinFrancesuggestthatwithadigitalserviceecosystemforthetruckitis
alreadypossibletobringtheTCUforvehicleswithelectricdrivetrainsdownbelowthe
costofconventionalvehicleswithICE.ThisisachievedbyoffsettingthecostofproducinganEVwiththerevenuesfrom,forexample,energygridservices.ThisiseasiertodowiththesubscriptionmodelbecausetheOEM
canretainownershipofthevehicle.Itmightevenbeachievableifthecustomerownsthevehiclebutthebatteriesarecoveredbya
subscriptionservice.
•Providingsustainabilitybenefitsthathelpcustomersreachtheirtargets,e.g.byensuringthatcircularityprinciplesarefullyexploitedatend-of-lifefora
vehicleorbattery.
OEMsneedtodevelopsubscription-basedsolutionstomeetmarketexpectations
Ourfindingsdemonstratethatthereisamarketfor
rapidvehicleprovisionsolutions.Webelievethat
OEMsshouldalreadybeworkingontheirstrategies
forsatisfyingthismarketthroughsubscriptionmodels.Theymustinnovaterapidlytooffersolutionsthat
aretailoredtosatisfyemergingbusinessneedsandenvironmentalgoals.
Indoingso,theyshouldleveragewhatisknownaboutthemarkettoensurethattheirsolutionsarefitfor
purpose,andspecificallythatthey:
•Simultaneouslysupportbothsubscription-basedusageandelectrificationgoals.
•Addresscustomers’concernssuchascostandrange.
•Satisfyspecificdemandssuchasshortleadtimes(ideallylessthanaweek).
Solutionsmustbuildonresearchtoidentifyneedsandblockers
Companiesshouldmakefulluseofresearchdatato
explorethenuancesofcustomers’needsandblockers(e.g.thedifferencesbetweengroupsintermsof
attitudestoEVpriceversusrange,andthevarying
preferencesregardinghowenergyshouldbechargedfor).Thiswillhelpthemtooptimizetheirproductsandalsoimprovethewaytheyaremarketed.
Ofcourse,customers’preferencesandbeliefsarenotalwayssetinstone.Forexample,inthecaseofrangeanxiety,OEMscanhelptheircustomersunderstandthatwithtoday’srouteplanningtechnology,range
concernscaneasilybeovercome–andofcoursethatthevehiclesofferedwillexploitthistechnology.In
general,OEMsshouldaimtoinformthemarketabouttherealitiesoftoday’sEVs,includingbothadvantagesandchallenges,sincetheindicationsarethatthiswillcreategreateracceptance.
AnotherareawhereOEMsshouldeducatethemarketisincentivesforelectrification.Thisisacomplex
topic,becauseeveryregionandcountryhasitsown
arrangements.Francecurrentlyhastheworld’shighestCO2taxes,butGermanyhasalsointroducedaCO2
chargeinrelationtoautobahns,forinstance.And
theEUoffersa“payloadbonus”whichallowsEVsto
weighmorethanconventionaloneswithoutpenaltytocompensatefortheweightofthebattery(28%ofourrespondentswereunawareofthis).
Sustainabilityshouldbepartofthepackage
Asnoted,ifOEMsretainownershipofassets,itmaybeeasiertocreatecircularity,potentiallyhelpingbothOEMsandtheircustomerstofulfilltheirsustainabilitygoals.
Betterenergyuseisanotheropportunitythatariseswhenmanufacturersretainownershipoftrucksandbatteries.Theyshould,forexample,beabletoexploitfuturebatteries’capacityforbidirectionalcharging.Atruck’sbatterycouldstoreenergyfromsolarpanelsonitsroof.Whenthereisasurplus,consumersina
nearbybuildingcouldbesuppliedwithenergybya
stationarytruck,ortheenergycouldbefedbackintotheelectricitygrid.Inthisway,thevehiclecanactasamobileenergystore.
Manysustainabilitymeasureswillalsohave
commercialbenefits,sincetheyreducewasteandmakebetteruseofresources.
“Subscriptionmodelsoffera
practicalandattractivesolutiontotheprimarybarrierofhigh
upfrontcostsassociatedwithzero-emissionvehicles.By
spreadingoutthecostsand
providingcomprehensiveservices,thesemodelsmakeiteasierfor
truckingcompaniestoadoptgreenertechnologies,therebyacceleratingthetransitiontoamoresustainablefutureinthetransportationindustry.”
RenataObradovic
GroupClientPartnerCapgemini
16TheRiseofSubscriptionModels
HowCapgeminihelp
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