2024年中国零售地产行业市场前景及投资研究报告

01020304053193339432024100%80%60%40%20%0%ABC66.6%48.2%45.8%39.7%35.8%27.5%21.4%12.3%9.0%-9.8%-11.9%-20%-40%-16.2%ABC-25.0%-26.9%-30.6%02004006008001,0001,200ACBiFind2024820244

|

©2024.40302010038.5150%100%50%0%15129142.2%12.6150%100%50%36.613.512.733.7130.4%26.19.18.622.021.021.0%7.016.760%18.5%10.2%6.9%5.9%5.29.4%20188.4%201918.4%3-50%-100%-36.6%2020-42.7%-35.9%2022-39.8%20200-50%2018201920212022202320242021202320242024820245

|

©2024.50%40%30%20%10%0%14%12%10%8%43.8%12.5%35.1%30.0%25.8%8.0%26.3%15.9%7.2%17.1%5.5%15.8%12.4%13.8%6%4.7%12.5%6.9%4.1%4.1%8.9%6.5%3.7%8.4%9.2%16.1%4%5.0%5.4%3.6%4.4%3.9%3.0%0.5%3.2%5.1%-1.5%

-1.7%-4.0%10.5%3.7%9.1%2.9%6.5%8.0%4.6%

4.8%2%-0.1%-5.6%1.7%-2.1%-5.0%1.0%2.7%4.6%2.0%1.5%0%-10%-20%-30%-0.2%-8.1%-2%-4%-6%-9.7%-8.4%-14.1%-16.4%-21.1%-3.9%-22.7%2024820246

|

©2024.49,00042,00035,00028,00021,00014,0007,000040%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

01

02

03

04

05

062019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024121-22024

820247

|

©2024.20242024

1-62024

1-6%2024

1-3%2023

1-12%22,96212,02610,3537,0984,4873,9233,6923,5343,0552,1681,8381,7251,564782-1.14.13.84.55.96.69.69.65.21.32.512.90.53.15.82.30.72.711.34.413.23.37.05.110.01.012.53.410.65.1-5.80.2-8.04.5-6.113.33.25.66.5-1.22.62.4-7.82.87213.066811.214.211.22024820248

|

©2024.20242024-2.3%7.4%4.9%3.4%-0.3%-2.1%5.6%4.1%3.5%3.4%-2.3%2.9%5.6%2.2%ABC4.7%7.4%3.9%5.2%2.5%0.8%2.2%0.0%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0001.0%2024820249

|

©2024.2018161412108120%100%80%60%40%20%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%80.2%56.5%34.7%16.5%1.0%

5.9%3.2%13.1%0.6%-6.4%-6.6%6-20%-40%-60%-80%-12.4%4-51.6%2-66.3%2023

2024H102018201920202021202220248202410

|

©2024.1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%1.5%1.3%1.0%20230.8%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%110.2%120.1%40.1%50.1%60.0%0.0%2023

1-23456789102024

1-2320248202411

|

©2024.100%80%60%40%20%0%83.2%

82.5%66.0%77.2%73.7%69.0%55.9%56.3%65.7%55.4%66.6%64.0%60.5%58.6%58.3%57.6%50.2%47.4%44.0%32.8%-6.8%-20%20248202412

|

©2024.40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%20248202413

|

©2024.160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000035%30%25%20%15%10%5%36%30%24%18%12%6%32.7%10.0%30.9%27.2%27.6%11.0%24.5%14.1%25.3%9.8%23.6%20.7%16.5%19.8%17.8%12.5%8.3%17.8%16.1%15.4%11.2%10.8%7.0%7.8%5.7%3.5%7.1%0%4.0%0%-6%-0.8%-5%-12%-18%-15.1%20202019202120222023202420248202414

|

©2024.618618618*20232024-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000020%15%10%5%202420230%-5%-10%-15%-20%025

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350*20248202415

|

©2024.42,00036,00030,00024,00018,00012,0006,000020%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420248202416

|

©2024.35%30%25%20%15%10%5%30.2%31.0%30.5%29.8%29.8%28.2%24.0%24.6%23.4%23.4%22.7%22.1%13.0%13.0%13.3%13.6%13.1%11.7%10.8%13.4%10.8%10.1%

9.9%8.7%

8.6%8.8%

9.2%9.6%9.3%6.2%8.8%5.8%5.9%5.5%5.6%5.9%5.8%5.9%5.9%5.7%

5.4%6.1%2.4%2.2%2.9%2.4%

2.4%

2.6%0%20192020202120222023202420248202417

|

©2024.80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%20248202418

|

©2024.211,600+1.444ABCGDP1061.511ABC143,641,00044,842,00048,874,00049,924,0002,856,0001,015,0001,437,000484,000-0.7%-0.0%-1.0%-1.1%10.3%7.1%-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.2ABC10.8%12.6%20248202420

|

©20242024A16,437,00015,531,0007,412,0005,462,00090,000768,00041,000-1.8%2.9%-1.1%-1.4%11.1%5.6%2.8%5.0%0.1-0.6-0.2-0.5116,000BC11,961,0009,259,0009,094,0006,385,0006,346,0005,830,000489,000412,000345,000126,00065,0000-0.9%-0.7%-1.1%-1.5%-0.7%-1.4%11.3%13.2%13.9%4.1%8.9%10.9%-0.90.2-1.40.5-0.80.47,395,0006,988,0005,808,0005,045,0004,572,0004,496,0004,335,0004,311,0002,636,0002,553,0001,787,000215,000-0.9%-1.0%-1.8%-0.7%-0.5%-0.8%-1.4%0.0%11.4%18.0%8.1%10.8%12.6%12.4%13.1%14.9%14.0%6.6%0.1-0.4-0.70.3-0.3-0.6-0.50.00050,000139,00080,000000000.0%-5.1%-1.4%0.00.10.815.1%202320232024

8202421

|

©2024.20245,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050020.4%ABC005001,0001,5002,0001H13

1H14

1H15

1H16

1H17

1H18

1H19

1H20

1H21

1H22

1H23

1H24*202320232024

8202422

|

©20242024202476.8C48.916.5%41.2A34.534.6%21.513.912.611.69.08.06.55.04.1293.6ABCB49.0%010203040506070809020248202423

|

©202420242024112.0%The

Box

BT+mallUP

TOWN29.8%10.9%10.2%CmallCyPARKCOCOPark70.2%A·3.4%3.4%9.5%3604.0%4.1%7.3%5.5%20248202424

|

©20242024上海丨上生新所2期上海丨EKA天物北京丨The

Box朝外B馆成都丨CPI岛成都丨此地CyPARK20244.4Ozark

HubJump+JoySOMEWHERESnowPeakSNDMUCHBIKEUndefeatedReebok&nauticaBlue

Bottle

CoffeePizzeriaCasaPagodaPaulmannPeet‘s

CoffeeMadverseeggsinnBake

No

TitleHaus101Onnice

riceKOLORBlantmoncOneMomentjojo&nanaGridCoffee20248202425

|

©20240.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.00.77210.510.710.680.68/20230.660.006/0.570.570.560.520.510.490.480.450.450.430.420.350.350.330.290.2420232111111ABC20232023*20248202426

|

©2024.20242024*ABC*020406080100120*20232023**SKP7262024

8202427

|

©2024.2720242026250ABC2001501005002H2024

2025

202620248202428

|

©202420242024-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%11.1%5.6%5.0%2.8%18.0%5.6%13.9%13.2%11.3%10.9%8.9%12.6%14.0%8.1%4.1%18.0%15.1%12.4%11.4%14.9%14.0%13.1%**4.1%15.1%8.9%11.1%12.6%12.4%11.4%10.8%11.3%13.2%10.9%13.9%ABC10.8%13.1%8.1%6.6%14.9%6.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%5.0%2.8%*202320232024

8202429

|

©2024.14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%ABC20248202430

|

©2024.“1,6001,4001,2001,00080016%14%12%10%8%202420256006%4004%2002%00%2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

2024*

2025*

2026*20248202431

|

©20243%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24ABC20248202432

|

©20240102030420248202434

|

©2024IP2017-2023**2024127304744212480-1002,50075%60%45%30%15%0%61.5%58.2%GoodsLove57.6%2,0001,5001,000500BoomComic50+5010mini30+34.1%31.4%29.7%27.6%Boom

ComicGoodsLove02017201820192020202120222023***Goods”IP7232024

8202435

|

©20242024202431,0578.5%35,00030,00025,000020,0001515,00010,0005,00010%8%6%4%2%0%*9.2%25.17190.167,910.13+27.10%6.5%+30.19%+13.24%4.9%5.0%0+134.73%+63.35%2024*20248202436

|

©20242023202420242024

1-2+297%+180%+233%+173%MolchanovsKeen2024202411iapm20244Houdini20244VuoriWilier20242024572024

6-72024

6-72024

7-92024

8-12+135%+61%+62%+55%GoldwinKeenBrompton**051015202021202220232024Keep&2024

8*,**202437

|

©20241,00080060040020005040302010037%86030%28%25%24%23%22%21%18%18%/APP/33416.22248.0**5.6**380.6Bigoffs****2024714**20246132024GeoQ2024

8202438

|

©2024••••••••••618NN202440

|

©2024.100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%5040302010015.0%22.0%17.0%18.0%29.0%28.0%23.0%27.0%30.0%SRKX*27.0%9.0%27.0%8.0%15.0%5.0%65%202312023720241*S39.949.9R9.9K9.98.8X9.96.6NielsenConsumer

LLC2024

8202441

|

©2024.20243320248202442

|

©2024.••2024

1-4••2024••2019•

20241,463.5+152.7%•202444

|

©2024.1401301201101009060%55%50%45%40%800-200

10010010050%

50%50%20248202445

|

©2024202423.9%7060504030201005%4%6837%58250453963310%9%3112439424385198%2023202410%31%202415.8%6%10080604020099.83%2%1%42.835.9633.424.7124.622.230%16.716.09.34.123420245/2023IPOIT20248202446

|

©202420192019140%120%100%80%128.2%112.7%113.5%111.5%119.1%100.7%119.0%107.7%112.8%94.9%109.4%105.6%104.1%101.5%103.2%98.7%94.5%75.3%88.6%73.1%86.8%65.6%87.2%70.1%83.4%50.6%79.0%77.0%73.9%72.6%60.7%68.0%39.2%66.8%44.0%78.6%60.7%74.8%60%53.5%

50.9%69.9%42.8%35.1%59.9%58.6%

56.7%56.3%40%

31.6%44.2%36.7%31.2%20%19.3%0%201920192024201920248202447

|

©202420242019-20