2024趋势报告：可再生能源和太阳能研究报告

2024TrendsReport:

RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Index

05

09

13

19

Forewordfrom29

ourCEO

Executivesummary

Aboutthesurvey

Upcomingrenewablechallenges

Gridsaturationandinstability

Permittingandregulation

IncreasedcostsLandavailabilitySkilledpersonnel

Trendsaccordingtoindustry

professionals

Storagetechnologies(BESS)

Renewablelegislation

AlternatePVdeployments(Agri-PV,floatingsolar)

Digitalization

Notableinnovations,materials,andtrends

Desirednewrenewableadvances

51

Keysuccess

factorsofa

leadingenergyplayer

Gridstabilizationmethods(storageandBESS)

Diversificationof

renewableenergysources

Investmentindigitalizationandautomation

Investmentinastronglaborforce

Diversificationofregionaloperations

57

85

89

92

Deepdiveinto

RatedPowerstats

ChangingprojecttrendsModulepreferences

InverterpreferencesStructurepreferencesBESS

ConclusionWrapup

References

Lackofgovernmentincentives

ForewordfromourCEO

RatedPower

RatedPower2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

67

Thepastyearhasbeenatestamenttotheresilienceandadaptabilityofourindustryamidstanever-changingglobalenergycrisis.Whilesomeimmediatepressureshaveeased,theongoinggeopoliticalunrest,particularlytheprolongedconflictinUkraineandtensionsintheMiddleEast,continuetoimpactenergymarketsandeconomiesworldwide.

Despitethesechallenges,therenewableenergysectorhasexperiencedsignificantglobalgrowth,particularlyinsolarPVandelectricvehicles.TheIEAestimatesthatnearly90%1oftotalinvestmentinelectricitygenerationwenttowardslowemissionspowerin2023,atrendthathasbeentrackingforsometime,andthisisnotonlyduetothepushforloweremissionsbutalsotheundeniableeconomiccaseformaturecleanenergytechnologies.Themomentumbehindthistransitionisnowsufficientforglobaldemandforcoal,oil,andnaturalgastodeclinebefore2030,markingthebeginningoftheendofthefossilfuelera.

However,thereareadditionalobstaclestoovercomeonthejourneytowardsacleanerenergyfuture.Managingsupplychaindependencies,especiallyforcriticalmineralslikelithium,cobalt,nickel,andrareearths,remainsakeychallenge.Oureffortstodiversifyand

innovateinthisareawillhaveabigsayintheresilienceofcleanenergysupplychainsinthefuture.

Anotherpivotalcomponentofthistransitionistheadvancementandintegrationofbatteryenergystoragesystems(BESS).Theabilitytostoreanddistributeenergywhenneededwillmakethesupplymoreconsistent,mitigatingsomeofthestrainonthegridintandemwiththeescalatingdemandforrenewableinstallations.

Lookingaheadtothefuture,weaskedenergyindustryprofessionalstosharetheirthoughtsonanumberoftopics,asameansofunderstandingthecurrentstateofthesector.Assomerecurringthemesinthesurveyresponsesshow,therearebothclearchallengesthatneedtobesolvedandexcitinginnovationsjustaroundthecorner.We’reexcitedtoseewherethingsgonext.

AndreaBarber

VPPower&Renewables,Enverusandco-Founder,RatedPower

ExecutiveSummary

RatedPower2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

1011

2023wasayearwheremuchprogresswasmadeintherenewableindustry.Fromalegislativeperspective,theEuropeanUnionadoptedanewEnergyDirective2,raisingtheir2030renewableconsumptiontargetto42.5%from32%.Atthesametime,over$270billionininvestmentsweremadeintheUSinthe18monthssincetheInflationReductionAct3wasintroducedin2022.

ThesolarPVmarkethasparticularlyflourished.Largeutility-scaleandsmalldistributedsolarPVsystemswereestimatedtomakeuptwo-thirdsofthe2023projectedincreaseinglobalrenewablecapacity4.Despitethisgrowth,thecostshavefluctuatedthroughouttheyear,withpricehikesdrivenbyvariousfactors,includinglaborandinverters.

SomesourcesindicatethatwindpowercouldenduphavingalowerLCOEthansolarin2024incertainregionsforthesamereasons.Thatsaid,solarPVcontinuestohavea29%lowerlevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)thanthecheapestfossilfuelalternative5.

AsreportedbyBloombergNEF,theprojectionoftotalsolarmodulecapacityinstalledin2023aroundtheworldis413GW6.Thisrepresenteda

massive58%growthfromtheamountinstalledin2022,whichitselfwasanalmost42%increasefromthepreviousyear.

Thistrajectorylookssettocontinue,withhightargetsandprojectionsbeingmade.AreportfromAuroraEnergyResearch7earlierintheyearsuggestedthatEuropewasontracktoinstallasolarpowercapacityof475GWbetweennowand2030.Meanwhile,attheCOP288conferenceinDubai,worldleadersagreedtotripletheglobalrenewableenergycapacityby2030andhistoricallyagreedtocommittotransitionawayfromfossilfuels9.

SomeinterestingtrendswerenotedinRatedPower’splatformthisyear.Thedominanceofbifacialmodules,thegrowingtrendofstringinverters,andthegeographicvariationinstructurepreferencesallhighlightevolvingdesignandengineeringapproaches.Overall,theworldiscommittedtoloweringitscarbonemissions,andtherenewablesindustryisrighttherealongsideit.

Aboutthesurvey

RatedPower

Togaininsightintotherenewablesector’strajectoryfor2024,wesurveyedenergyindustryprofessionalsfrom30countriesspanningsixcontinents.Theywereaskedaboutindustrychallenges,trends,innovations,andtheimpactofgovernmentlegislationandincentivesontherenewablelandscape.Theygavetheirtakeoncriticaltechnologicaladvancesinthesectorandtheidealdevelopmentstheywouldliketoseeinthefuture.

Oftheexpertswesurveyed,over88%saidtheyworkwithinthesolarsector,withthestorageandwindpowersectorsfeaturingprominently.Over57%oftherespondentssaidtheyhaveworkedintheenergyindustryfor5to15+years.Justunder60%comefromorganizationswithlessthan150employees,and7%fromorganizationswithover5,000employees.

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2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Whatisyourindustrysector?

Hydropower

Solar

88

.1%

Storage

39.9%

Wind

28.6%

Powerdistribution

14.3%

Greenhydrogen

13.1%

9.5%

RelatedServices8.3%

Otherrenewables6%

Oil&Gas3.6%

Tidal1.2%

Other

1.2%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%80%90%100%

15

RatedPower

Forhowlonghaveyou

beenworkingintheenergyindustry?

+15years5-15years-5years

What’sthesizeofthecompanyyoucurrentlyworkfor?

Lessthan150employees150-1,000employees

1,000-5,000employees+5,000employees

16

33.3%

23.8%

42.9%

10.7%

7.1%

22.6%

59.5%

“Thetimegaptobringgreenhousegasesdownisgettingnarrower.Weneedtospeeduptheinstallationofcleanenergysources.Thecoming5to8yearsarecrucialformanyareasoftheworld.”

DiegoLobo-GuerreroRodriguez

SENS-IqonySolarEnergySolutionsGmbH

Upcomingrenewableschallenges

Whatarethebiggestchallengesfortherenewablesectorforthecomingyear?

.7%

56%

66.

7%

Lackofgovernmentincentives

GridsaturationandinstabilityPermitsandregulation

Skilledpersonnel

Increasedcosts

17.9%

35

17.9%

Landavailability

17.9%

Locationofresources13.1%

Shortageofrawmaterial

13.1%

Poorlytargetedpublicinvestment

11.9%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Gridsaturationandinstability

Likelastyear’ssurvey,gridsaturationandinstabilityisthenumberonechallengerespondentsseefortheindustryin2024.66.7%ofthosesurveyedstatedthisareaasanissue,upfrom64%lastyear.

Inareasoftheworldwheregreenenergypenetrationisparticularlyhigh,localgridsareattheirlimits.Theyrequirefurtherreinforcementtomanagetheinfluxofvariablepowersourceswithoutcurtailingtheelectricitysupply.

Althoughcurtailmentratesofvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)inthelarger,moreestablishedrenewableenergymarketsarerisingoverall,windandsolarratesarestillrelativelylow,between1.5%and4%10.Mostmarketshavebeenworkingtoreducetheircurtailmentratesoverthelastdecade,butthegeographicaldisparitybetweengenerationandconsumptionhasbeenanunavoidableobstacleformanyregions.

Governmentshaveimplementedmeasurestomitigatecurtailment,suchasthehigh-voltagedirectcurrentintheUK,theEnergyImbalanceMarket(EIM)inCalifornia,orincentivizingbatteriesinChile.

Ontheotherhand,manyareasworldwideareatriskofenergyshortfalls,withreportsfromNERCclaimingthattwo-thirdsofNorthAmerica’senergysupplyisvulnerable11throughoutperiodsofextremelyhighdemand.

Tomanageexcessandshortfallsinelectricitysupply,thereisanurgentcallforincreasedinfrastructureandstoragecapacity.Manycountriesarelookingtodistributedgeneration,morerobustlocalgrids,andsmallerplantstoensuresupplybyimplementingnewlegislationandreducingregulatorybarriers.

AssolarmanufacturingcontinuestoboomacrosstheUSAandgreeninvestmentsbecomemoreprevalentinEurope,andacrosstheworld,thedemandforrenewableenergyinstallationswillcontinuetoincrease.Ifnotcarefullyplanned,thisgrowingdemandwillcontributetosaturationandfurtherinstability.

21

2223

RatedPower

Permittingandregulation

Overhalf(56%)oftherespondentsseepermittingandregulationasachallengefortherenewableenergysector,butthisisdownfrom64%lastyear.Thissuggeststhatalthoughthisissuestillneedstobesolved,theworkisalreadyunderway.

The2022temporaryemergencyEUregulationdesignedtostreamlinerenewableprojectpermitsisscheduledtocometoanendin2024;however,therearecallsfromseveralcountriestoextendittoavoidmorebottlenecksinthefuture.Withotherregionsfollowingsuitbyimplementingnewlawsandreducingbureaucratichurdlesthereishopethatstalledprojectscouldstartmoving.

Investorsanddevelopersrequireregulatorystabilitytoconfidentlypourresourcesintonewventures.Thismeansthatcreatingmoreefficientlicensingprocessesneedstobeapriority.Atthesametime,theremustbeabalanceofenvironmentalsafeguardswiththeneedtofast-trackapprovalsfornewprojects.

Whenpermittingisacomplexandlengthyprocess,investmentisoftendeterred,andprogressissloweddown.Whenregulationswidelydifferacrossregions,thisaddsanotherlayerofcomplexity.Allofthismakesitharderforrenewableenergyproviderstogrowandexpandtheiroperations.

2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Skilledpersonnel

Overathird(35.7%)ofsurveyrespondentsidentifiedskilledpersonnelshortagesasachallengethatneedstobesolved.Asthedemandforrenewablescontinuestogrow,moreandmoreskilledpeoplewillberequiredtosustainit.

Thisalsocomesatatimewhenmostindustriesarestrugglingtofindtheskilledpersonneltheyneedwhilecleanenergyjobshavegrownby10%12intheUSoutgrowingthenation’soverallemployment.Thereare3.3millioncleanenergyjobs,andanincreasingnumberofthesepositionsarecarriedoutbycontractorsoroutsideconsultancies.

Solvingthisproblemwillrequireanemphasisontraining,educationandapprenticeshipstailoredspecificallytotheneedsoftherenewableindustry.Comprehensiveprogramsmustbedevelopedthatareaimedatattractingtalentandnurturingandretainingitwithcontinuousre-andup-skilling,engagement,andpurposefulcareerpaths.

Similarprogramswillneedtobedevelopedtohelpexpandtheskillsetoftheexistingrenewableworkforce.Beingadeptintechnology,managementacumen,digitalproficiency,andregulatoryunderstandingwillallbeimportantmovingforward.

RatedPower2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

2425

Lackofgovernmentincentives

17.9%ofthosesurveyedseealackofgovernmentincentivesasanissue,whichiswaydownfrom39%in2023.Thisillustratesthatmoregovernmentsaroundtheworldareonboardwithrenewablesandcreatingpoliciesthatincentivizeandhelptheindustry.

Althoughthingsareheadingintherightdirection,morecanbedone.Anincreasedfocusongovernmentalactionwithlessrelianceoncommunityengagementisonethingthatwillhelp.Policiesofferingattractivetaxbreaksandpavingthewayforpublic-privatepartnershipsshouldbeafocus.Thesecollaborationscanamplifytheimpactoflimitedgovernmentfundswhileharnessingprivatesectorexpertiseandresourcesatthesametime.

Throughout2024theInflationReductionAct13willkeepdrivingtherenewableenergylandscapeintheUS.REPowerEU14andtheGreenDealIndustrialPlan15willcontinuetomovetheEUtowardsits2030renewablesgoals.GovernmentswithintheEUarecontinuingtheirefforts,suchastheScottishGovernment’sNewEnergyStrategyandJustTransitionPlan16,thecreationoftheUK’s

SolarTaskforce17,andtheGermanGovernment’sapprovalofjustover57billioneuros18ingreeninvestmentsin2024tohelpreachtheir2045targetofbecomingnet-zero.

Intherestoftheworld,wewilllikelyseeacontinuedincreaseinmid-scale(under5MW)solarinstallationsinAustralia19asreducedregulationmakesthesedecentralizedprojectsmoreattractivetoinvestors.WewillalsoseetheeffectsofLaw14,300,recentlyapprovedbyANEEL,theBrazilianElectricityRegulatoryAgency20,whichwilldirectlyimpactdistributedmicro-andmini-generationacrossthecountry.We’lllikelyseetheeffectsoftheDominicanRepublicpassingtwonewbills21(LawNo.50-07andCNE-AD-0004-2023)reducinglegislativebarriersandincentivizingtheuseofbatteryenergystoragesystems(BESS).

Increasedcosts

Justunderone-fifth(17.9%)ofrespondentsseetheincreasedcostsassociatedwithrenewableenergyprojectsasbeingahurdlein2024.Thisnumberwas63%lastyear,suggestingthemarketismaturingandbecomingmoreresilient.

Thehighcostofstoragetechnologiesstandsoutasakeychallenge,underscoringtheneedformoreaffordablesolutions.Similarly,investmentcosts,operationsandmaintenance,transportation,anddeploymentchallengesareallcommonconcerns.

Findingwaystoreducetheseexpenseswillrelyontechnologicaladvancementsinareaslikestorage,streamliningtransportationanddeployment,aswellasleveragingeconomiesofscaletobringdownprices.Evenwithrisingupfrontcosts,renewables’long-termeconomicbenefitscannotbeignored.

RatedPower

Landavailability

Landavailabilityisanotherconcernofrespondentsthathasdroppedbymorethanhalfinthelastyear.While40%ofthosesurveyedsawitasanissuelastyear,thatfigurehascomedownto17.9%thisyear.Manyfactorscouldhavecontributedtothis,includingbothtechnologicalandregulatorychanges.

Manyrespondentsanticipatethattherewillbegrowthinagri-PV,particularlyinregionswithlandconstraints.France22isoneexampleofaregionthatrecentlypassedlegislationtostimulateandstreamlinerenewablesdevelopmentonagriculturalplotsandcreatedamorecomprehensivedefinitionofanagrivoltaicinstallation.

Innovationsthatallowfordualuseoflandwillbesignificantonthepathtoenergyindependence,especiallyindenselypopulatedorgeographicallyconstrainedareas.Giventhatfindingsufficientlandforlarge-scalerenewableprojectsintheseareaswillbeachallenge,solutionslikefloatingPVcouldalsobecomeimportant.

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Trendsaccordingtoindustryprofessionals

RatedPower

3031

RatedPower

Howmuchconfidencedoyouhaveinthefutureofrenewablesmarket?

100%

90%

80%

70%67.9%

60%

50%

28.4%.

1.2%

2.4%.

40%

30%

20%

10%

12345

2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Countrieswiththehighestpotentialfor2024

UnitedStates

45.2%

China

33.3%

Germany

25%

Spain

22.6%

Australia

21.4%

Brazil

20.2%

Chile

19%

India

17.9%

Italy

7%

.

16

Mexico

13.1%

SaudiArabia

11.9%

Argentina

9.5%

Denmark

9.5%

30%

40%

50%

60%

10%20%

70%80%90%100%

2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

RatedPower

Encouragingly,theoverwhelmingmajorityofsurveyrespondentssaidtheyhavehighconfidenceinthefutureoftherenewablesmarket.Over90%ofrespondentsratedtheirconfidenceintheindustry’sfutureaseitherfourorfiveoutoffive.

Whenaskedtoidentifythecountrieswiththemostpotentialforgrowthinrenewables,nearlyhalf(45.2%)pinpointedtheUnitedStatesasleadingthecharge.ChinaandGermanyalsorankedhighlyamongourrespondents,with33.3%and25%respectively.OthercountriesthatmadeitintothetoptenincludeSpain,Brazil,andAustralia,eachrecognizedby19-22%ofrespondents,andemergingplayerslikeChile,India,Italy,andMexico.

Lookingattheindustryitself,40.5%agreedthatsolaristhesectorwithinrenewableswiththebiggestgrowthpotentialoverthenextfiveyears.Storagewascloselybehindat31%,whilegreenhydrogen(15.5%),thegrid(6%),andwind(3.6%)roundedouttheresponses

Overthenextfiveyears,wheredoyouseethebiggestgrowthareawithinrenewablespace?

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40.5%

40%

31%

30%

10%

20%

15.5%.

6%.

3.6%

SolarStorageGreenHydrogenGridWind

33

32

RatedPower

“(BESS)iscrucialforthe

successofrenewableenergies.”

SergioGarcia

Hipergama

Storage

technologies(BESS)

“Themorestorage,the

better;morestoragemeanslessnaturalgasandnuclearplantsonstandbytofulfillthecapacityneedsofthegridathighload.”

DarrenBishop

Lincolninfrastructure/ConvaltEnergy

ThosewhorespondedtothesurveyidentifiedbatterystoragetechnologiesandBESSasvitallyimportanttothefutureofrenewableenergy.

Theywillplayakeyroleinenhancinggridflexibility,butbetterperformance,regulation,andreductionsinpricewillbeneededforthistypeoftechnologytomeetitspotential.Somerespondentsareconcernedaboutthehighdeploymentcostsofstoragetechnologies,andothersnotedthatduetoitslong-termpotential,themarketcurrentlyunderestimatesitsvalue.

“BESSisacriticalsteptowardsmorerenewableenergy

integrationandgridstability.”

PedroSousa

EfacecEngenhariaeSistemas

3435

“Storageinmanyformswillbecomemandatoryinany

grid-balancing

MarcoBonvini

SolarFarmSr

strategy.”

“ThelifespanofBESSstillrequiresmajorimprovementsanddoeshaveenvironmentalissuesattheendofitslife.Weneedtofindalternativestothescarcelithium.”

MatlholeLosaba

KeileBusinessSolutions(Pty)Ltd

“Renewabletechnologieswill

havenochoicebuttohybridizewithstoragesystems.Thegridisnotsufficientlyreadyto

receivethelargeamountofrenewablesexpected.”

CatalinaBarrera

ReviewEnergy

RatedPower2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Renewablelegislation

TheInflationReductionAct(IRA)intheUnitedStatesandtheRenewableEnergyDirectivewithintheEuropeanUnionareoverallpositivesfortheindustry,actingascatalystsandincentivizingmorerenewableenergyprojects.SeveralrespondentsemphasizedtheimportanceoftheIRAinpositivelytransformingtheUSmarket.

TheEUDirectiveisseenassettingfundamentalframeworksandtargets,althoughthereareconcernsaboutwhetheritissufficienttomotivatememberstatestoreachthesegoals.Largelyduetorisinggaspricesandgeopoliticaltensions,theEU’scommitmenttoincreasingrenewablesproductionhasbeenreinforced,butmemberstatesmustactquickly.

Thesentimentfromtherestoftheworldshowedacommonthemethatalthoughtheirgovernmentsmightbeenactingpoliciesthatboosttheindustrythereisstillplentytobedonetoexpediteprojectpipelinesandhelpachieveambitiousnationalrenewablestargets.

“IRAgivestheUSAabig

opportunitytogrow.TheGreenDealneedstoopenmoreto

thespecificsofthecountriestobesuccessfulagainsttheUSAproposal.”

CarolinaNester

Sonnedix

“MoremanufacturerswillhaveachanceintheUS.Ontheotherhand,aslightoverproductionwillbringpricesdownelsewhere.”

DiegoLobo-GuerreroRodriguez

SENS-IqonySolarEnergySolutionsGmbH

3839

“Policymakersneedtocreateamorestableenvironment

forlicensingnewprojects,

reducingthetimerequired

forlicensingbydigitalizingtheprocesswiththeregulators.”

PedroSousa

EfacecEngenhariaeSistemas

2024TrendsReport:RenewableEnergyandSolarResearchReport

Alternaterenewabledeployments(Agri-PV,floatingsolar,offshore

wind)

Astheindustryprofessionals