货币金融学（第十三版）课件 英文第25章 货币政策传导机制

TheEconomicsofMoney,Banking,andFinancialMarketsThirteenthEditionChapter25TransmissionMechanismsofMonetaryPolicyCopyright©2022,2019,2016PearsonEducation,Inc.AllRightsReservedPreviewThischapterexaminesthetransmissionmechanismsofmonetarypolicyandevaluatestheempiricalevidenceonthemtobetterunderstandtherolethatmonetarypolicyplaysintheeconomy.LearningObjectives25.1Listandsummarizethetransmissionmechanismsthroughwhichmonetarypolicycanaffecttherealeconomy.25.2Summarizeandapplythefourlessonsoutlinedinthischapterfortheconductofmonetarypolicy.TransmissionMechanismsofMonetaryPolicyExamineswhetheronevariableaffectsanotherbyusingdatatobuildamodelthatexplainsthechannelsthroughwhichthevariableaffectstheother.TransmissionmechanismThechangeinthemoneysupplyaffectsinterestrates.Interestratesaffectinvestmentspending.Investmentspendingisacomponentofaggregatespending(output).TraditionalInterest-RateChannelsAn

importantfeatureoftheinterest-ratetransmissionmechanismisitsemphasisonthereal

(ratherthanthenominal)interestrateastheratethataffectsconsumerandbusinessdecisions.Inaddition,itisoftenthereallong-terminterestrate(nottherealshort-terminterestrate)thatisviewedashavingthemajorimpactonspending.OtherAssetPriceChannelsInadditiontobondprices,twootherassetpricesreceivesubstantialattentionaschannelsformonetarypolicyeffects:ForeignexchangeratesThepricesofequities(stocks)Figure1TheLinkBetweenMonetaryPolicyandAggregateDemand:MonetaryTransmissionMechanismsTobin’sqTheoryTobin’sqTheoryexplainshowmonetarypolicycanaffecttheeconomythroughitseffectsonthevaluationofequities(stock).Definesqasthemarketvalueoffirmsdividedbythereplacementcostofcapital.Ifqishigh,themarketpriceoffirmsishighrelativetothereplacementcostofcapital,andnewplantandequipmentcapitalischeaprelativetothemarketvalueoffirms.Whenqislow,firmswillnotpurchasenewinvestmentgoodsbecausethemarketvalueoffirmsislowrelativetothecostofcapital.WealthEffectsFrancoModiglianilookedathowconsumers’balancesheetsmightaffecttheirspendingdecisions.Consumptionisspendingbyconsumersonnondurablegoodsandservices.Animportantcomponentofconsumers’lifetimeresourcesistheirfinancialwealth,amajorcomponentofwhichiscommonstocks.Whenstockpricesrise,thevalueoffinancialwealthincreases,therebyincreasingthelifetimeresourcesofconsumers,andconsumptionshouldrise.CreditView(1of3)Dissatisfactionwiththeconventionalstoriesthatinterest-rateeffectsexplaintheimpactofmonetarypolicyonexpendituresondurableassetshasledtoanewexplanationbasedontheproblemofasymmetricinformationinfinancialmarketsthatleadstofinancialfrictions.Thisexplanation,referredtoasthecreditview,proposesthattwotypesofmonetarytransmissionchannelsariseasaresultoffinancialfrictionsincreditmarkets:thosethatoperatethrougheffectsonbanklendingandthosethatoperatethrougheffectsonfirms’andhouseholds’balancesheets.CreditView(2of3)BankLendingChannel:Basedontheanalysisthatdemonstratesthatbanksplayaspecialroleinthefinancialsystembecausetheyareespeciallywellsuitedtosolveasymmetricinformationproblemsincreditmarkets.BalanceSheetChannel:Likethebanklendingchannel,thebalancesheetchannelarisesfromthepresenceoffinancialfrictionsincreditmarkets.CreditView(3of3)CashFlowChannel:Anotherbalancesheetchanneloperatesbyaffectingcashflow,thedifferencebetweencashreceiptsandcashexpenditures.UnanticipatedPriceLevelChannel:Anotherbalancesheetchanneloperatesthroughmonetarypolicyeffectsonthegeneralpricelevel.HouseholdLiquidityEffects:Aconsumer’sbalancesheetshouldbeanimportantinfluenceonhisorherestimateofthelikelihoodoffuturesufferingfromfinancialdistress.Specifically,whenconsumershavealargeamountoffinancialassetsrelativetotheirdebts,theirestimateoftheprobabilityoffinancialdistressislow,andtheyaremorewillingtopurchaseconsumerdurablesorhousing.F

Y

I:Consumers’BalanceSheetsandtheGreatDepressionTheyearsbetween1929and1933witnessedtheworstdeteriorationinconsumers’balancesheetseverseenintheUnitedStates.Becauseofthedeclineinthepricelevelinthatperiod,thelevelofrealdebtconsumersowedalsoincreasedsharply(byover20%).Consequently,thevalueoffinancialassetsrelativetotheamountofdebtdeclinedsharply,increasingthelikelihoodoffinancialdistress.WhyAreCreditChannelsLikelytoBeImportant?(1of2)Therearethreereasonstobelievethatcreditchannelsareimportantmonetarytransmissionmechanisms:Alargebodyofevidenceonthebehaviorofindividualfirmssupportstheviewthatfinancialfrictionsofthetypecrucialtotheoperationofcreditchannelsdoaffectfirms’employmentandspendingdecisions.Thereisevidencethatsmallfirms(whicharemorelikelytobecredit-constrained)arehurtmorebytightmonetarypolicythanlargefirms,whichareunlikelytobecredit-constrained.WhyAreCreditChannelsLikelytoBeImportant?(2of2)Theasymmetricinformationviewofcreditmarketimperfectionsatthecoreofthecreditchannelanalysisisatheoreticalconstructthathasprovedusefulinexplainingmanyotherimportantphenomena,suchaswhymanyofourfinancialinstitutionsexist,whyourfinancialsystemhasthestructurethatithas,andwhyfinancialcrisesaresodamagingtotheeconomy.Application:TheGreatRecession(1of3)Withtheadventofthefinancialcrisisinthesummerof2007,theFedbeganaveryaggressiveeasingofmonetarypolicy.Atfirst,itappearedthattheFed’sactionswouldkeepthegrowthslowdownmildandpreventarecession.However,theeconomyprovedtobeweakerthantheFedorprivateforecastersexpected,withthemostsevererecessioninthepost-warperiodbeginninginDecemberof2007.WhydidtheeconomybecomesoweakdespitethisunusuallyrapidreductionintheFed’spolicyinstrument?Application:TheGreatRecession(2of3)Thesubprimemeltdownledtonegativeeffectsontheeconomyfrommanyofthechannelswehaveoutlined.Therisinglevelofsubprimemortgagedefaults,whichledtoadeclineinthevalueofmortgage-backedsecuritiesandC

D

O

s,ledtolargelossesonthebalancesheetsoffinancialinstitutions.Application:TheGreatRecession(3of3)Withtheweakerbalancesheets,thesefinancialinstitutionsbegantodeleverageandcutbackontheirlending.Withnooneelsetocollectinformationandmakeloans,adverseselectionandmoralhazardproblemsincreasedincreditmarkets,leadingtoaslowdownoftheeconomy.Creditspreadsalsowentthroughtheroofwiththeincreaseinuncertaintyfromfailuresofsomanyfinancialmarkets.Thedeclineinthestockmarketandhousingpricesalsoweakenedtheeconomy,becauseitloweredhouseholdwealth.LessonsforMonetaryPolicy(1of2)Fourbasiclessons:Itisdangerousalwaystoassociatetheeasingorthetighteningofmonetarypolicywithafallorariseinshort-termnominalinterestrates.Otherassetpricesbesidesthoseonshort-termdebtinstrumentscontainimportantinformationaboutthestanceofmonetarypolicybecausetheyareimportantelementsinvariousmonetarypolicytransmissionmechanisms.LessonsforMonetaryPolicy(2of2)Fourbasiclessons(cont’d):Monetarypolicycanbeeffectiveinrevivingaweakeconomyevenifshort-terminterestratesarealreadynearzero.Avoidingunanticipatedfluctuationsinthepricelevelisanimportantobjectiveofmonetarypolicy,thusprovidingarationaleforpricestabilityastheprimarylong-rungoalformonetarypolicy.Application:ApplyingtheMonetaryPolicyLessonstoJapanThefirstlessonsuggeststhatitisdangeroustothinkthatdeclinesininterestratesalwaysmeanthatmonetarypolicyhasbeeneasing.Thesecondlessonsuggeststhatmonetarypolicymakersshouldpayatte