考研 雅思 sat gre gmat英语备考资料 GMAT作文黄金80题范文

AnalysisofArgumentQuestions

1.ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreportsenttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,a

processoroffrozenfoods.

“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasorganizationslearnhowtodothings

better,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa

3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservice

in1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswill

sooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableus

tominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofits/5

下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商(processor)奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好

事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天

50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，

我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。

1.falseanalogy:Thefoodindustryisnotanalogoustothecolorfilmindustry.

2.causaloversimplification:Otherfactorsthatmaycontributettothecostdeclineofthe

printingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.

3.gratuitousassumption:Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitous

assumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandmaximizeprofitbecausethe

companyhasbeenconductedfor25years.

1.错误类比：colorfilmprocessing和processingoffood不相同。problemsofspoilage,contamination,

andtimelytransportation都只影响food不影响film.

2.同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST卜降的？很可能是materialnecessaryforthe

process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。

3.gratuitousassumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经outof

date.

Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendin

thecostsoffilmprocessingovera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswill

likewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthis

conclusiontheauthorcitesthegeneralprinciplethat"asorganizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,

theybecomemoreefficient.^^Thisprinciple,coupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25

yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor'srosyprediction.This

argumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.

First,theauthor'sforecastofminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsrestsonthegratuitous

assumptionthatOlympicFoods'"longexperience^^hastaughtithowtodothingsbetter.Thereis,

however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthis

assumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthe

food-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyis

entirelyunfounded.

Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryare

applicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweigh

thesimilarities,thusmakingtheanalogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,

contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthe

film-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountable不可抗拒的

obstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.

Asitstandstheauthor'sargumentisnotcompelling.Tostrengthentheconclusionthat

OlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhave

toprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25years

ofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processing

industrywouldfurthersubstantiate证实theauthor'sview.

2.ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromthebusinessdepartmentoftheApogee

Company.

“WhentheApogeeCompanyhadallitsoperationsinonelocation,itwasmoreprofitablethan

itistoday.Therefore,theApogeeCompanyshouldclosedownitsfieldofficesandconductall

itsoperationsfromasinglelocation.Suchcentralizationwouldimproveprofitabilitybycutting

costsandhelpingthecompanymaintainbettersupervisionofallemployees.”

下面摘自APogee公司的商务部门的备忘录：

当Apogee将它所有的业务部门集中在一处时，它将有比现在更多的利润。因此，Apogee应该关闭它的驻外办公室并从单

一场所管理它的所有部门。这样的话，集中会通过削减成本提高利润，并帮助公司更好地对所有员工进行监督。

1.causaloversimplification:Itisimprudenttoconcludethattheestablishmentofthe

fieldofficesistheonlyreasonexplainingthedeclineoftheprofit

2.allthingsareequal:Thesuccessofthecentralizationofthepastdoesnotguarantee

theapplicabilityinthefuture.

3.either-or-orchoice:Theauthorassumesthatthecentralizationandthe

establishmentoffieldofficesaremutuallyexclusivealternatives,thereisnomiddle

groundbetweentheytwo.Infact,wecanhavethefieldofficesundercentralized

control.

InthisargumenttheauthorconcludesthattheApogeeCompanyshouldclosedownfield

officesandconductallitsoperationsfromasingle,centralizedlocationbecausethecompanyhad

beenmoreprofitableinthepastwhenallitsoperationswereinonelocation.Foracoupleof

reasons,thisargumentisnotveryconvincing.

First,theauthorassumesthatcentralizationwouldimproveprofitabilitybycuttingcostsand

streamliningsupervisionofemployees.Thisassumptionisneversupportedwithanydataor

projections.Moreover,theassumptionfailstotakeintoaccountcostincreasesandinefficiencythat

couldresultfromcentralization.Forinstance,companyrepresentativeswouldhavetotraveltodo

businessinareasformerlyservedbyafieldoffice,creatingtravelcostsandlossofcriticaltime.In

short,thisassumptionmustbesupportedwithathoroughcost-benefitanalysisofcentralization

versusotherpossiblecost-cuttingand/orprofit-enhancingstrategies.

Second,theonlyreasonofferedbytheauthoristheclaimthatApogeewasmoreprofitable

whenithadoperatedfromasingle,centralizedlocation.Butiscentralizationtheonlydifference

relevanttogreaterpastprofitability?Itisentirelypossiblethatmanagementhasbecomelax

regardinganynumberoffactorsthatcanaffectthebottomlinesuchasinferiorproducts,careless

productpricing,inefficientproduction,pooremployeeexpenseaccountmonitoring,ineffective

advertising,sloppy月巴大的buyingpoliciesandotherwastefulspending.Unlesstheauthorcanrule

outotherfactorsrelevanttodiminishingprofits,thisargumentcommitsthefallacyofassumingthat

justbecauseoneevent(decreasingprofits)followsanother(decentralization),thesecondeventhas

beencausedbythefirst.

Inconclusion,thisisaweakargument.TostrengthentheconclusionthatApogeeshouldclose

fieldofficesandcentralize,thisauthormustprovideathoroughcost-benefitanalysisofavailable

alternativesandruleoutfactorsotherthandecentralizationthatmightbeaffectingcurrentprofits

negatively.

6.Thefollowingappearedaspartofanarticleinamagazinedevotedtoregionallife.

"CorporationsshouldlooktothecityofHelioswhenseekingnewbusinessopportunitiesora

newlocation.Evenintherecentrecession,Helios'sunemploymentratewaslowerthanthe

regionalaverage.Itistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,andhistoricallyithasprovidedmore

thanitsshareoftheregion9smanufacturingjobs.Inaddition,Heliosisattemptingtoexpandits

economicbasebyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovative

technologies.^^

一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：

企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地

区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发

展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。

1.作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从

常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。

2.作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该

地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。

1,因为H地区industrialandmanufacturing比较attractive,所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这

类的，如果缺乏能够做innovativetechnologiesandresearch的工人laborpool,那么很可能

导致失败。

2,H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有lessavailableworkforce«企业必须提高wage才

能吸引他们。提高了COST。

3,错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现

的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。

InthisargumentcorporationsareurgedtoconsiderthecityofHelioswhenseekinganewlocationornew

businessopportunities.Tosupportthisrecommendat