欧洲工业房地产行业市场前景及投资研究报告-外文版培训课件碧桂园万达万科恒大

INDUSTRIES

&

MARKETSIndustrialrealestateinEuropeCHAPTER

01OverviewShareofrealestateinvestorswhointendtoinvestindifferenttypesofrealestateworldwidein2023Mostpopularrealestateinvestmentsectorsamonginvestorsworldwide202370%60%60%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%48%27%26%25%24%Industrial&LogisticsOfficeMultifamily/BTRHotelsRetailSpecialized(alternative)Land3Description:Accordingtoasurveyamongrealestateinvestors,officesandindustrialandlogisticpropertieswillbethemostpopularassetclassesin2023withnearly60percentofglobalinvestorsintendingtoinvestinthistypeofproperties.Multifamilyrealestatecamesecondwith48percentofrespondents,followedbyhotels.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;750respondents;investorsSource(s):ColliersInternationalInvestmentprospectsontherealestatemarketinEuropein2024,bysectorEuropeanrealestatemarketinvestmentprospects2024,bysectorScore(1to5=excellent)*2.0

2.50.00.51.01.53.03.54.04.55.0NewenergyinfrastructureDatacentres4.544.49HealthcareStudenthousingRetirement/assistedlivingSelf-storagefacilitiesLogisticfacilities4.24.164.134.124.1Co-livingLifesciencesPrivaterentedresidentialServicedapartmentsIndustrial/warehouseAffordablehousing4.074.044.044.043.993.984Description:ThenewenergyinfrastructureindustryhadthehighestinvestmentprospectsamongallsectorsintheEuropeanrealestatemarketin2023,withascoreof4.54outof5.DatacentersandHealthcarerankedsecondandthirdwithscoresof4.49and4.20outof5.Attheotherendofthescaleweresuburbanofficeswithascoreof2.18outof5.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2023;1,089respondents;18yearsandolder;Industryexperts,includinginvestors,fundmanagers,developers,propertycompanies,lenders,brokers,advisersandconsultants.Source(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteDistributionofcommercialrealestateinvestmentsinEuropefrom2013to2023,byassetclassCommercialrealestateinvestmentdistributioninEurope2013-2023,bypropertytypeOfficesRetailIndustrialHotelsOther60%50%40%30%20%10%0%201320142015201620172018201920202021202220235Description:In2023,approximately29percentofallpropertyinvestmentswentintotheofficesector,whichwasmorethananyothercommercialrealestatesector.ꢀOfficesremainalargeportionofEuropeanrealestateinvestment,despiterecentfluctuationsindemandandvacancyrates.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2013to2023Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateAverageconstructioncostsofindustrialbuildingsinselectedEuropeancitiesin2023,bytype(inU.S.dollarspersquaremeter)ConstructioncostsofindustrialbuildingsinselectedEuropeancities2023,bytypeAmsterdam(Netherlands)Munich(Germany)London(UnitedKingdom)Paris(France)Dublin(Ireland)4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005003,8173,6543,2153,0392,8821,6901,7001,5771,4251,3080AdvancedmanufacturingfacilityLargewarehousedistributioncentre6Description:LondonandMunichwereamongthemostexpensivecitiesinEuropefortheconstructionofwarehousesin2023,whileadvancedmanufacturingfacilitieswerethemostexpensiveinAmsterdam.Meanwhile,amongtheselectedcities,Parishadthelowestconstructioncostsforwarehouses.However,constructioncostsdonotalwaysfollowthesametrendsascommercialrealestateinEurope,withsalepricesdifferingsignificantlyinsomecases.

ReadmoreNote(s):2023;CostspersquaremeterofinternalareaSource(s):Turner&TownsendThird-partylogistics(3PL)revenueinEuropefrom2010to2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)Europe-third-partylogistics(3PL)revenue2010-2022300250200253181.7178.4177.6175173.8172.2165.2166.3161156157.21501005002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020227Description:ThisstatisticillustratesEurope'sthird-partylogistics(3PL)revenuebetween2010and2022.In2022,theEuropeanthird-partylogisticsmarketgeneratedrevenuetothevalueof253billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2010to2022Source(s):Armstrong&AssociatesE-commercepenetrationratesinselectEuropeancountriesfrom2019to2029E-commercepenetrationrateinselectEuropeancountries2019-2029UnitedKingdomGermanyFranceSpainItaly100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%201920202021202220232024202520262027202820298Description:Thepenetrationrateisforecasttoexperiencesignificantgrowthinallregionsin2029.Fromtheselectedregions,therankingbypenetrationrateintheE-commercemarketisforecasttobeleadbytheUnitedKingdomwith97.25percent.Incontrast,therankingistrailedbyItalywith45.65percent,recordingadifferenceof51.6percentagepointstotheUnitedKingdom.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2019to2029;estimatesSource(s):DigitalMarketInsightsLargestlogisticsrealestatedevelopersinEuropefrom2020to2022,byfloorspacecompleted(inmillionsquarefeet)LargestlogisticsrealestatedevelopersEurope2020-2022Floorspacecompletedinmillionsquarefeet010203040506070809086.6100PanattoniEuropeCTPVGPGroup27.22524.923.119.9SegroPrologisGLPEuropeWDP1515P3LogisticParksGarbeIndustrialRealEstateLogisticsCapitalPartners(LCP)9.76.79Description:PanattoniEuropewasthelargestdeveloperoflogisticsrealestateinEuropebetween2020and2022,withcloseto87millionsquarefeetoffloorspacecompleted.TheWarsaw-headquarteredcompanycompletedatotalof302projectsduringthetwo-yearperiod.Thesecondcompanyintheranking,CTP,deliveredapproximately27.2millionsquarefeetofwarehousingacross143projects.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2020to2022;newschemes,extensions,and/orredevelopmentsover5,000squarefeetSource(s):Panattoni;PropertyEUCHAPTER

02InvestmentmarketEuropeanrealestateinvestmentanddevelopmentprospectsinindustrialandwarehousepropertiesbetween2018and2024InvestmentanddevelopmentprospectsinindustrialpropertiesinEurope2018-2024InvestmentDevelopment4.74.64.54.44.34.24.14.03.93.83.7201820192020202120222023202411Description:Accordingtoindustryexperts,theprospectsofdevelopment(3.87)inthelogisticsrealestatemarketinEuropeareexpectedtodecreasein2024.However,theprospectsforinvestment(3.99)areexpectedtoincreasein2024.Theprospectsofinvestmentsanddevelopmentsinlogisticsfacilitieshadgrownsignificantlybetween2018and2022.Accordingtothesurveyrespondents,thesectorswithbestprospectsontherealestatemarketfor2024werenewenergyinfrastructure,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2017

to2023;1,089respondents;18yearsandolder;Industryexperts,includinginvestors,fundmanagers,developers,propertycompanies,lenders,brokers,advisersandconsultants*Source(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteIndustrialandlogisticsrealestateinvestmentinEuropein2023,bycountry(inmillioneuros)IndustrialandlogisticsrealestateinvestmentEurope2023,bycountryInvestmentinmillioneuros6,00002,0004,0008,00010,00012,000UKGemanyFrance10,8775,8883,481SwedenNetherlandsItaly2,9962,3951,3201,1591,043DenmarkSpainPoland653611NorwayFinlandIreland483460321Belgium12Description:TheUnitedKingdomhadthelargestlogisticsrealestateinvestmentmarketinEuropein2023.ThevalueofinvestmentallocatedtoindustrialandlogisticsrealestateintheUKwascloseto10.9billioneuros.Germany,whichrankedsecond,recordedabout5.9billioneurosintransactionvalue.SomeofthecitieswiththehighestwarehouserentswereLondon,Oslo,andHelsinki.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2023Source(s):Catella;RealCapitalAnalyticsTotalvalueofindustrialandlogisticsinvestmentinEuropefrom2012to2023(inbillioneuros)IndustrialandlogisticsinvestmentinrealestatemarketEurope2012-20238070605068.3955.5643.3240.22394035.633229302010026.72514.2520139.642012201420152016201720182019202020212022202313Description:ThevalueofindustrialandlogisticrealestateinvestmentinEuropehasgenerallyincreasedsince2012,fueledbydemandfore-commercedistributioncenters.In2023,investmentdeclinedto32billioneuros,afterpeakingat68.4billioneurosin2021.ThistrendwasobservedacrossalmostallmajorEuropeanmarkets.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2012to2023Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstatePrimeyieldsofindustrialandlogisticsrealestateinEuropeasof2ndquarter2023,bycountryorregionPrimeyieldsofindustrialandlogisticsrealestateinEuropeancountries20237%6.23%6%5.29%5.16%5.18%5.04%5.06%4.82%5%4%3%2%1%0%4.53%4.15%GermanyFranceNordicsEurope(exc.theUK)EuropeBeneluxUnitedKingdom

RestofEuropeCEE14Description:AmongthedifferentcountriesandregionsinEurope,theprimeyieldsforindustrialandlogisticsrealestatewerethelowestinGermanyasofthesecondquarterof2023.InEurope,primeyieldsamountedto5.06percent,whileinGermany,theywereaslowas4.15percent.Incomparison,theCentralandEasternEurope(CEE)regioncouldexpectyieldsof6.23percentduringthesameperiod.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q22023Source(s):Cushman&WakefieldNetprimeyieldsofwarehousesover5,000squaremetersinEuropein2023,bymarketNetprimeyieldsofwarehousesover5,000squaremetersinEurope2023,bymarketPrimeyields4%0%1%2%3%5%6%7%8%9%BucharestRiga8.25%7.5%7.5%7.5%TallinnVilniusAthensKatowicePoznanWarsawRomeBratislavaMilanBarcelonaBudapest7%6.75%6.5%6%5.7%5.5%5.5%5.25%5.25%15Description:ThemajormarketsinGermanyhadwarehouseyieldsofunder4.5percentasofthefourthquarterof2023-thelowestacrosstheEuropeancitiesintheranking.OthermarketswithlowyieldswereLondon,Paris,andMarseille.Inrealestate,yieldisameasureoftherateofreturnandiscalculatedastheratiooftheannualincometothetotalinvestmentcost.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q42023;warehousesover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateValueofself-storageinvestmentinEuropefrom2018to2023(inmillioneuros)Volumeofself-storageinvestmentsinEurope2018-2023InvestmentinmillioneurosTotalEuropeinvestmentvolume6002023pipelineTotalUKinvestmentvolume80002004001,0002701,200202320222021202020192018780724882523383001007612015515911716Description:Theinvestmentvolumeinself-storagefacilitiesinEuropeexperiencedasteadyincreasebetween2020and2023.In2020,theinvestmentvolumeamountedtoaround176millioneuros,andby2022,itreached740millioneuros.Consideringthefloorareainpipeline,the2023figurewasestimatedtoreach1,122millioneuros.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2018

to2023Source(s):CBREGroup;FEDESSACHAPTER

03RentalmarketAnnualprimeheadlinerentcostforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersinselectedEuropeancitiesin2023,bycity(ineurospersquaremeterperyear)AnnualprimerentalcostsforlargewarehousesinEurope2023,bycityPrimerentsineurospersquaremeterperyear050100150200250300350LondonOsloHelsinki310172165Dublin133130130126BirminghamManchesterMunichBarcelonaBerlin9696DusseldorfCopenhagenFrankfurtPrague9595949318Description:AcrossthemajorEuropeanindustrialandlogisticsrealestatemarkets,Londonhadthehighestrentalratein2023.Onesquaremeterinalarge,primewarehouseinLondoncostabout310eurosannuallyinthefourthquarteroftheyear.Thatfigurereflectstherentalcostafteranyrent-freeperiodsorincentives,excludingtaxesandcharges,referredtoasheadlinerent.OthermarketswithhighrentalrateswereOsloandBirmingham.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q42021;Headlinerents.Warehousesover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateAnnualheadlineprimerentcostsforwarehousesintheoccupierlogisticsmarketforselectcitesoftheUnitedKingdom(UK)fromthe2014to2023(ineurospersquaremeter)AnnualprimerentalcostsforlargewarehousesintheUK2014-2023,bycityLondonBristolBirminghamManchesterLeeds350300250200150100500201420152016201720182019202020212022202319Description:Theannualheadlineprimerentcostspersquaremeterforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersintheoccupierlogisticsmarketsintheUnitedKingdomhasincreasedsince2014.InLondon,theannualrentforthepropertiesofhighestqualityandspecificationandinthebestlocationsamountedto310eurospersquaremeterannually.Thisfigurereferstotherentpayableafterrent-freeperiodsandincentives,andexcludestaxesandcharges.AfterLondon,thecapitalofNorway,Oslo,was[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;2014to2023;asofQ4ofeachyear;Warehousessizedover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateAnnualprimeheadlinerentcostsforwarehousesintheoccupierlogisticsmarketforleadingcitiesinGermanyfrom2014to2023(ineurospersquaremeter)AnnualprimerentalcostsforlargewarehousesinGermany2014-2023BerlinMunichFrankfurtHamburgDüsseldorf135125115105958575655545201420152016201720182019202020212022202320Description:Theannualprimaryrentcostsforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersintheoccupierlogisticsmarketinGermanyincreasedinrecentyears.Headlinerentsrefertotherentpayableafterrent-freeperiodsorincentives,excludingtaxesandcharges.Inthefourthquarterof2023,thesquaremeterrentforprimepropertiesinMunich,orwarehousesofhighestqualityinthebestlocation,amountedto126eurosannually.InEurope,themostexpensivemarketsforlargewarehouseswerein[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2014to2023;Warehousessizedover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateAnnualprimeheadlinerentforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersintheoccupierlogisticsmarketinFrancefrom2014to2023,bycity(ineurospersquaremeter)AnnualprimerentalcostsforlargewarehousesinFrance2014-2023GreaterParisLyonMarseilleLille807570656055504540201420152016201720182019202020212022202321Description:Theannualprimerentpersquaremeterforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersintheoccupierlogisticsandindustrialrealestatemarketinFrancehasincreasedsince2014.Asofthefinalquarterof2023,asquaremeterofwarehousespaceintheGreaterParisregioncost75euros.ThatwasꢀlowcomparedtoothermajorEuropeancities,suchasLondon,andBerlin.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;2014to2023;Warehousesover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateAnnualprimeheadlinerentcostsforwarehousesover5,000squaremetersintheNetherlandsfrom2014to2023,bycity(ineurospersquaremeter)PrimerentcostsforwarehousesintheNetherlands2014-2023,bycityAmsterdamRotterdamVenlo-Venray-EindhovenWest-Brabant(Breda-Moerdijk-Roosendaal)9085807570656055504540201420152016201720182019202020212022202322Description:Theprimaryrentalratespersquaremeterforwarehousesofmorethan5,000squaremetersintheNetherlandsforthesecondyearinarowin2023.TherentalrateofwarehousesinRotterdamandAmsterdamamountedto85eurospersquaremeterinthatyear.Duetothesmallsizeofthecountryandtherelativelyhighconnectivitytothebigcities,thereislessofaneedforurbandistributioncenters(DCs)likeinLondonorBerlin.Mosttake-upoflogisticspropertycouldbefoundinthe[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Netherlands;2014o2023;Warehousessizedover5,000squaremeters.Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateIndustrialandlogisticwarehousingvacancyratesinEuropein2ndquarter2023,bycityIndustrialandlogisticwarehousingvacancyratesinEurope2023,bycityVacancyrate4%0%1%2%3%5%6%7%8%9%10%MunichVenlo0.1%0.9%Frankfurt1.5%1.6%PragueMilan2%2.1%BarcelonaBirminghamRotterdamBucharestLondon(GreaterLondon)Warsaw3.7%3.9%4%4.7%5.6%Istanbul6.1%Madrid6.5%Budapest8.6%23Description:VacancyratesacrossthekeylogisticshubsinEuroperemainedlowinthesecondquarterof2023,withMunichandVenlorecordingvacancyratesforwarehousesanddistributioncentersbelowonepercent.Vacancyratesshowtheshareofvacantspaceinaparticularmarket.Withthepopularityforconsumere-commerceontherise,thedemandforhighqualitylogisticsspacesalsoincreasesleadingtoagrowingcompetitionamongoccupiersandupwardpressureonrents.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q22023;citywarehousesandlogisticanddistributioncentersSource(s):ColliersInternational12-monthrollingtake-upofindustrialandlogisticsrealestateinEuropeasof2nd2023,bycity(in1,000squaremeters)12-monthtake-upofindustrialandlogisticsrealestateinEuropeQ22023,bycity1,4001,2091,2001,0431,000800600400200091388772769168567351946635035030526817413924Description:Milanhadthehighest12-monthtake-upintheindustrialandlogisticsrealestatemarketinEuropeasofthesecondquarterof2023.Theamountofspacethatwaslet,pre-let,sold,orpre-soldinMilanamountedto1.2millionsquaremeters.AmongtheleadingEuropeanlogisticshubs,theaverageindustrialandlogisticsrentrangedbetween49eurospersquaremetersand310eurospersquaremeter.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;Q22023;Warehousesover5,000squaremeters.;*datareferstotheregion

ReadmoreSource(s):ColliersInternationalAverageannualprimeindustrialandlogisticsrentalgrowthforecastinselectedEuropeancitiesfrom2023to2027,bycityPrimeindustrialandlogisticsfive-yearrentalgrowthinEurope2023-2027,bycityAverageannualrentalgrowth0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%StockholmRuhrAreaVenlo6.31%4.63%3.87%3.87%WestBrabantLyon3.74%BudapestMidlandsOslo3.44%3.42%3.39%3.39%3.34%LisbonMunichNorthWestMarseilleVienna3.26%3.23%3.14%25Description:PrimelogisticsrealestaterentsinEuropeareprojectedtogrowbyuptosixpercentperyearuntil2027,accordingtoa2023forecast.Onaverage,rentswereforecasttoriseby2.76percentperyear.Praguewastheonlymarketwhererentswereforecasttodecline.LogisticsfacilitieswereoneofthecommercialrealestatesectorswiththehighestinvestmentprospectsinEuropein2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2023Source(s):BNPParibasRealEstateCHAPTER

04Self-storagemarketTotalfloorspaceofself-storagerealestateinEuropein2023,bycountry(in1,000squaremeters)Totalfloorspaceofself-storagepropertiesinEurope2023,bycountryFloorspaceinthousandsquaremeters0102030405060708090UnitedKingdomDenmarkSwedenNorwayFinlandFrance76.8149.1547.1737.1735.4632.4129.47SpainGermanyIreland19.2116.67Poland4.632.38Italy27Description:In2023,theUnitedKingdomhadthemostfloorareaforself-storagefacilitiesamongthe11Europeancountriessurveyed.Theaggregatefloorspaceforself-storagefacilitiesintheUKwasapproximately77,000squaremeters.DenmarkandSwedenfollowedwithcloseto50,000squaremeterseach.ꢀIncontrast,PolandandItalyweresomeofthecountrieswiththelowesttotalfloorspace,bothbelow5,000squaremeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Ireland,Italy,Norway,Poland,Spain,Sweden,UnitedKingdom;2023Source(s):CBREGroup;FEDESSANumberofcontainerandinternalself-storagestoresinEuropein2023,bycountryNumberofself-storagestoresinEurope2023,bycountryNumberofself-storagestoresInternalstores1,000Containerstores1,5001,49005005302,0002,500UKFranceGermanySpain760260228135170670585Netherlands320Sweden

61Norway

38201182Austria

48

162Denmark

55

138Switzerland

25

120Poland

68

67Finland

38

9428Description:In2023,thereweremoreself-storagestoresintheUKthananywhereelseinEurope.Thenumberofself-storagefacilitiesintheUKtotaled2,250:760internalstoresand1,490containerfacilities.Francerankedsecond,withatotalof930stores.GermanyandSpainalsohadahighnumberofself-storagefacilities,amountingto750and720,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2023Source(s):CBREGroup;FEDESSAEuropeanrealestateinvestmentanddevelopmentprospectsinself-storagefacilitiesfrom2018to2024InvestmentanddevelopmentprospectsinstoragefacilitiesinEurope2018-2024InvestmentDevelopment4.54.44.34.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.5201820192020202120222023202429Description:Theprospectsofinvestmentanddevelopmentinself-storageinfrastructureintherealestatemarketinEuropesawsignificantshiftsbetween2018and2024.Forbothinvestment(4.12)anddevelopment(4)ofself-storagefacilitiesinEuropefor2024,theoutlookaccordingtoindustryexpertslookedslightlylessfavorablethanthepreviousyear.Accordingtothesurveyrespondents,thesectorswithbestprospectsontherealestatemarketfor2024werenewenergyinfrastructure,healthcare,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2017

to2023;1,089respondents;18yearsandolder;Industryexperts,includinginvestors,fundmanagers,developers,propertycompanies,lenders,brokers,advisersandconsultants*Source(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteAverageoccupancyrateofself-storagerealestateinEuropein2023,bycountryAverageoccupancyrateofself-storagepropertiesinEurope2023,bycountryOccupancyrateinpercentage40%

50%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%78%90%90%100%DenmarkUnitedKingdomFrance83%83%SwedenNorway75%74%SpainGermanyItaly74%74%Ireland73%Finland67%Poland59%30Description:In2023,Denmarkhadthehighestoccupancyrateforself-storagefacilitiesofallthecountriesinEurope.TheoccupancyrateinDenmarkwas90percent.TheUnitedKingdomandFrancefollowedclosely,withanoccupancyrateof83percent.Ontheotherhand,FinlandandPolandsawrelativelylowoccupancyrates,bothatlessthan70percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Ireland,Italy,Norway,Poland,Spain,Sweden,UnitedKingdom;2023Source(s):CBREGroup;FEDESSAAverageannualrentofself-storagerealestateinEuropein2023,bycountry(ineurospersquaremeter)Averageannualrentalcostsforself-storageinEurope2023,bycountry35030025020015010050332.39312.91310.01286.87281.37275.56266.5264.78228.04191.68191.410UnitedKingdomIrelandFinlandDenmarkGermanySpainFranceItalySwedenNorwayPoland31Description:In2023,theUKhadthehighestaverageannualrentforself-storagefacilitiesinEurope.Theaverageannualrentalpriceforself-storagefacilitiesintheUKwasmorethan332eurospersquaremeter.IrelandandFinlandfollowedclosely,withthemeanannualaveragerentforself-storagestoresrangingfrom310to313eurospersquaremeter.On