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文档简介
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch
15July2024
China
2QGDPmissesexpectationsasactivityremainsfragile,unstableanduneven;revisingdown2024growthforecastto4.7%
•China’s2QGDPcameinnotablybelowexpectations,growing4.7%oya.Ourseasonaladjustmentsuggeststheeconomy’sgrowthmomentumslowednotablyto1.0%q/qsaarin2Q,followingsolid1Qgrowthat7.%q/qsaar.
•Juneactivitydatacontinuestosendmixedsignals,withupsidesurpriseinIPgrowth,steadyexportactivityandsolidmanufacturingFAIgrowthontheonehand,andnotabledownsidesurpriseinretailsales,alongwithongoinghousingdrag.
•Onindustrialproduction,JuneIPcameinaboveexpectations,growing5.3%oya,orrisingnotablyby1.1%m/msabyourestimate,followingamoderateincreaseof0.4%m/msainMay.
•DomesticconsumptiondemandshowednotabledownsidesurpriseinJune,followingtemporaryimprovementinMay.Retailsalesgrewatasubduedpaceof2.0%oyainJune,orfalling1.3%m/msa.Serviceproductiongrowthalsoeasedsomewhatto4.7%oyainJune(vs.4.8%oyainMay).
•Fixedinvestmentcameinlinewithexpectations,rising3.9%oyainJan-Jun,orrising3.6%oyainJune.Furtherbreakdownshowsongoingweaknessinrealestateinvestment(whichfell10.1%oyainJune),withcontinuousoutperformanceinmanufacturinginvestment(+9.3%oya)andamoderateeasingininfrastructureinvestmentgrowth(+4.6%oya).
•The2QGDPreportandJuneactivitydatashowedthateconomicactivityinChinaremainsfragile,unstableanduneven.Inresponsetothe2QGDPdisappointment,ourfull-yeargrowthforecastisreviseddownto4.7%(previously:5.2%),assuming4.0%q/qsaargrowthfor3Q,and5.0%q/qsaarfor4Q.
•Ourforecastscenarioisbasedontheassumptionofneutralormodestlysupportiveeconomicpolicyin2H,withnoadditionalstimulus.Intheabsenceofmajorstructuralreformsfromthe3rdPlenum(tobeheldthisweek)andmeaningfulcounter-cyclicalpolicyadjustmentinthepolitburomeetinglaterthismonth,theofficialfull-yearGDPgrowthtargetof“around5%”willriskamodestundershooting.
China’s2QGDPcameinnotablybelowexpectations,registering4.7%oyagrowth(J.P.Morgan:5.4%;consensus:5.1%),following5.3%oyagrowthin1Q.For1H24,GDPgrowthcameinat5.0%oya.Basedonourseasonal-adjustmentprocess,insequentialterms,theeconomy’sgrowthmomentumslowednotablyto1.0%q/qsaarin2Q,followingthesolidexpansionof7.4%q/qsaarin1Q.Forcomparison,theNBSseasonallyadjustedseriessuggestsGDPgrew0.7%q/qsain2Q,followinggrowthof1.5%q/qsain1Q24.
Seepage8foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.
EmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearch
HaibinZhu
(852)2800-7039
haibin.zhu@
GraceNg
(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe
(852)2800-0143
tingting.ge@
JiYan
(852)2800-7673
ji.yan@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch
2
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearchChina
15July2024
Besides,innominalterms,2QGDProse4.0%oya,comparedto4.2%oyagrowthin1Q.TheimpliedGDPdeflatorfell0.7%oyain2Q,comparedto-1.1%oyain1Q.ThenominalGDPgrowthof4.1%oyain1H24alsomarkedthesecondworstinrecord(onlybetterthan1H20duringCOVIDoutbreak).Inaddition,breakdownbyexpendituresuggests,outof5.0%oyarealGDPgrowthin1H,consumptionexpenditurecontributed3.0%-pt;grosscapitalformationcontributed1.3%-pt,andnetexportscontributed0.7%-pt.
Juneactivitydatahighlightsretailsalesweaknessandongoinghousingdrag,withuptickinindustrialproduction
MajorJuneactivitydatacontinuestoshowweaknessindomesticdemandconditions,withuptickinindustrialproductionactivity.JuneIPcameinaboveexpectations,rising5.3%oya(J.P.Morgan:4.6%;consensus:5.0%),comparedto5.6%oyainMay.Onourestimates,IPpickedupnotablytogrow1.1%m/msainJune,addingtothegainof0.4%m/msainMay.FurtherdetailssuggestmodestgrowthinelectricityproductioninJune(2.3%oya),moderategrowthinelectricmachineryequipmentproduction(4.4%oya),solidgrowthinautoproduction(6.8%oya),andsignificantgrowthinproductionofcommunication,computerandotherelectronicequipment(11.3%oya).Productionactivityinconstruction-relatedsectorscontinuedtounderperform,includingafurtherdeclineincementproduction(-10.3%oyainJune),whilecrudesteeloutputshowedmarginalpositivegrowth(+0.2%oya).
Regardingdomesticdemandconditions,fixedinvestmentcameinlinewithexpectations,growing3.9%oyaforJanuary-June(J.P.Morgan:3.8%;consensus:3.9%),orgrowing3.6%oyainJune(vs.3.5%oyainMay).FurtherdetailssuggestacontinuingcontractioninrealestateFAI,withoutperformanceinmanufacturingFAI,alongwithamoderateeasingininfrastructureFAIgrowth.Infurtherdetails,manufacturingFAIgrowthcameinatasolid9.3%oyainJune(vs.9.4%oyainMay),andinfrastructureFAIgrowtheasedmoderatelyto4.6%oya(vs.4.9%oyainMay).Meanwhile,realestateinvestmentremainedweak,contracting10.1%oyainJune(vs.-11.0%oyainMay).Byownershipbreakdown,privateinvestmentshowedmodestgrowthat0.1%oyainJan-Jun(unchangedfrom+0.1%oyainJan-May),whilepublicinvestmentrose3.8%oya(vs.7.1%oyaforJan-May).
HousingmarketactivitystayedsoftinJune,thoughtheannualpaceofdeclineeasedmoderately,partlyhelpedbylowbaseeffect.Newhomesales(area)fell14.3%oyainJune(vs.-19.0%oyainMay),andnewhomesale(value)fell12.2%oya(vs.-26.4%oyainMay).Newhomestarts(floorspace)fell18.3%oyainJune(vs.-22.2%oyainMay).Meanwhile,followingstronggrowthlastyear,newhomecompletion(area)hasslowedrecently,falling30.6%oyainJune(vs.-12.3%oyainMay).
Regardingconsumerdemandconditions,nominalretailsalescameinnotablybelowexpectations,growing2.0%oyainJune(J.P.Morgan:3.6%;consensus:3.4%),comparedto3.7%oyainMay.Insequentialterms,weestimatethatretailsalescontracted1.3%m/msainJune,largelyoffsettingthereboundof1.5%m/msainMay.Infurtherdetails,autosales(innominalterms)fell6.2%oyainJune(vs.-4.4%oyainMay),whileretailsalesex-autorose3.0%oya(vs.4.7%oyainMay).Seasonallyadjusted,weestimateautosalesrose0.7%m/msainJune,whileretailsalesexcludingautocontracted1.6%m/msa.Lookingback,thepickupinMayretailsales(1.5%m/msa)seemedtobepartlyduetofront-loadedconsumptionspending(e.g.earlierstartofthe6.18salespromotionperiod),whichwasnotsustainedinJune.
Infurtherdetailsintheretailsalesreport,cateringexpenses/restaurantspendinggrewatasteadypaceof5.4%oyainJune.Regardingsalesofconsumergoods,arangeofsectorsregisteredratherweaksalesdatainJune,includingsalesofhouseholdelectronicappliances
3
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch
15July2024
(falling7.6%oya),clothing/shoes(-1.9%oya),cosmetics(-14.6%oya),jewelry(-3.7%oya),sportsandentertainmentproducts(-1.5%oya),constructionandrefurbishmentmaterials(-4.4%oya),etc.Meanwhile,afewothersalescategoriesshowedmodestpositivegrowthinJune,includingsalesofinformationandcommunicationequipment(+2.9%oya),fooditems(10.8%oya),dailyuseitems(+0.3%oya),medicalproducts(4.5%oya),andfurniture(+1.1%oya).
Regardingservicesectoractivity,theserviceproductionindexrose4.7%oyainJune(vs.4.8%oyainMay),ledbyinformationtransmission,softwareandIT(13.5%oya),leasingandcommercialservices(9.7%oya),transportation,storageandpostalservices(5.4%oya).Regardinglabormarketconditions,thenationwideurbansurvey-basedunemploymentratestayedunchangedat5.0%inJune.Besides,theNBSreportedthatnationwideaveragehouseholddisposableincomepercapitarose5.3%oyainrealtermsin1H24,andgrew5.4%oyainnominalterms.
Economicactivityremainsfragile,unstableanduneven
Overall,the2QGDPreportandJuneactivitydatashowedthateconomicactivityinChinaremainsfragile,unstableanduneven.
First,theunevengrowthisillustratedbycomparingsupplyanddemandsideindicators.In1H24,IP(inrealterms)rose6%oyabutretailsales(innominalterms,withinflationclosetozero)onlyrose3.7%andserviceproductionindexrose4.6%.Thisisattributedtodemand-supplyimbalancesanddeflationpressureintheeconomy.Whiledeflationpressureeasedoffmodestlyin2Q(GDPdeflatorfrom-1.1%oyain1Qto-0.7%oyain2Q,mainlybenefitingnarrowingPPIdeflationfrom-2.7%oyain1Qto-1.6%in2Q),itdidnotgoaway(GDPdeflatorwillstillstaynegativeinthecurrentquarter)andthelowinflationenvironmentwillcontinuetostayaround.
Second,thecontrastingperformancebetweenout-performingandunder-performingsectorsdoesnotchange.Theliftfrommanufacturinginvestment(rising9.5%oyain1H24),greensectorsandexports(exportvolumerose12.7%oyainJan-May)iscriticalforChinatomaintain5%oyagrowthin1H,butthedragfromthehousingmarket(realestateinvestmentdeclined10.1%oyain1H24)andunstableperformanceindomesticconsumptionhurttherecovery.Thegovernmenthasrolledoutpolicymeasurestoaddresstheweaklinksintheeconomy,butthepolicyeffectseemslimited.Forinstance,thenewroundofhousingstabilizationmeasuressinceMay17hasledtosomestabilizationinhousingactivityinJune,butthestabilizationseemstobedrivenbyseasonalpatterns.Ontheconsumptionside,trade-insubsidyforNEVsaleshasbeensupportiveforautosales,buttrade-insubsidyforhomeapplianceisstillabsenthencesalesofhouseholdelectronicapplianceisweak(falling7.6%oyainJune).Overall,policysupportisstillbiasedonproduction(especiallyadvancedmanufacturingandgreensectors).
Third,themonthlydatashowsunstableactivity.Forinstance,IPandretailsaleshadasolidrecoveryinJan-Febthisyear,butthencontracted(in%m/msaterm)inMar-Apr.ActivityinMayandJuneshowedsomerecovery,butitwasincompleteandunstable.Thisisrelatedtothevariationinpolicyresponses.BetweenJuly2023andearly2024,economicpoliciesshiftedtowardgrowth-friendly.However,afterAprilbothfiscalandmonetarypoliciesseemedtohavereversed.Onthefiscalside,thepaceofspeciallocalgovernmentbondissuanceisnotablybehindnormalyears(only38%offull-yearquotahasbeenissuedin1H,vs.71%innormalyears).Onthemonetarypolicyfront,thePBOChasbeenreluctanttocutpolicyrates,insteaditisconcernedaboutthedeclineinlong-endCGByieldsandhastakenmeasurestostabilizefront-endandlong-endinterestratesinrecentmonths,andhasde-emphasizedthenotabledecelerationincreditandmoneysupplygrowth.
4
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearchChina
15July2024
Policyresponsesmatter:whatcancomeoutofthetwopolicymeetingsinJuly?
Inresponsetodisappointing2QGDPdata,ourfull-yeargrowthforecastisreviseddownto4.7%oya(previously:5.2%).Inbreakdown,consumption,investmentandnetexportswillcontribute2.8%pts,1.5%ptsand0.4%pt,respectively,toGDPgrowth.WemaintainourforecastthatChina’seconomicgrowthwillreturntotrendgrowthataverage4.5%q/qsaarin2H,butthepaceissomewhatdelayedinthatnowweforecast3QGDPgrowthat4.0%q/qsaar(previously:4.5%)and4QGDPgrowthat5.0%q/qsaar(previously:4.5%).GDPdeflatorwillremainnegativeat-0.5%oyain2024,whichimpliesnominalGDPgrowththisyearat4.1%oya(previously:4.7%),thesecondworstinrecord(thelowestwas2.7%in2020).
Ourforecastisbasedontheassumptionthateconomicpolicywillturnneutralormodestlysupportivein2H,butthereisnoadditionalstimulus.Onthefiscalside,theemphasiswillbetofullyutilizethefiscalspaceasapprovedintheMarchNPCmeeting,i.e.toacceleratetheissuanceofspeciallocalgovernmentbondsinthecomingmonths.Onthemonetarypolicyfront,weexpecta10bpratecutanda25bpRRRcutlaterin3Q,withTSFgrowthstayingsoftat8.1%oyaatyear-end.Intheabsenceofmajorstructuralreformsfromthe3rdPlenum(tobeheldthisweek)andmeaningfulcounter-cyclicalpolicyadjustmentsinthepolitburomeetinglaterthismonth,theofficialfull-yearGDPgrowthtargetof“around5%”willriskamodestundershooting.
Hence,policyresponsesareimportanthere.TheJulypolitburomeeting(inlateJuly)willdecideonthepolicyguidelinesin2H,focuswillbewhetherthegovernmentwillincreasethefiscalandmonetarysupport(vs.ourforecast),whetherthecentralgovernmentwilluseitsfiscalspacetohelpmitigatefiscaldifficultiesbylocalgovernments(asProfessorBaifromTsinghuaUniversityrecommended,alump-sumof6-7trillionyuanfiscalsupportfromcentralgovernmenttocoverCOVID-relatedexpenditurebylocalgovernments),andwhethertherewillbeadditionalsupportivemeasurestoboostdomesticconsumptionandstabilizethehousingmarket.Fromthe3rdPlenum,thefocusiswhetherthegovernmentwillannouncereformmeasurestoliberalizeproductionfactors(e.g.landreformanddatamanagementinpromotingdigitaleconomy),identifynewsourcesofgrowth(innovationsandindustryupgradeinmanufacturingandservicesectors)andcontroltheweaklinks(e.g.housing,fiscalreform).
China:RealGDPgrowth
J.P.Morgan
%change
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
%q/qsaar
%oya
forecast
18Q119Q120Q121Q122Q123Q124Q1
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
5
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch
15July2024
China:monthlyindicators
2022
2023
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Realindustrialproduction
%oya
3.6
4.5
4.5
6.7
5.6
5.3
%changecomparedtosameperiodin2019
28.6
24.8
25.0
29.6
m/m,sa(JPM)
-1.0
-0.4
0.4
1.1
m/m,sa(NBS)
-0.1
0.9
0.3
0.4
Fixedassetinvestment
Value
%oya,ytd
5.1
3.0
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
%oya
4.7
3.6
3.5
3.6
%changecomparedtosameperiodin2019
27.1
23.1
21.4
26.6
m/m,sa(JPM)
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
m/m,sa(NBS)
0.7
-0.1
0.0
0.2
RetailSales
Value
%oya
-0.2
7.2
3.1
2.3
3.7
2.0
%changecomparedtosameperiodin2019
24.3
17.2
19.1
19.4
m/m,sa(JPM)
-2.5
-1.1
1.5
-1.3
m/m,sa(NBS)
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.1
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
Chinaindustrialproduction
%change,bothscales
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
%3m/3msaar
40
30
%oya
20
10
0
-10
-20
12131415161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
IPbreakdownbyproduct
%
40
Jan-JuneJune
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
China:Serviceproductionindex
%oya
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
20172018201920202021202220232024
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
China:nominalfixedassetinvestmentgrowth
%,bothscales
40
%oya
%3m/3m,saar
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1112131415161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
6
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearchChina
15July2024
FAIgrowthbyindustry
Realestate
%oya,ytd
Infrastructure
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Manufacturing
-40
12131415161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
FAIgrowth:Publicvsprivatesectors
%oya,ytd
40
Public
Total
Private
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
12131415161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
China:Privateinvestment
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
%oya,ytd
AggregateManufacturing
InfrastructureServices
30-
20-
0-10-
10
-20
202220232024
Source:CEIC,NBS,J.P.Morgan."Services"includeeducation,health,sports,entertainment,publicadministration,socialsecurityandothersocialworks.
Commoditybuildingfloorspaceandrealestateinvestment
%oya,3mma
Floorspace
sold
Realestateinvestment
Floorspacestarted
1112131415161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
China:FAIbyindustry
22Jun23Jun24Jun
%oya
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Mining
EnvHCEntITTSREAuto
-20
Note:Env=Environment;HC=Healthcare;Ent=Entertainment;
IT=Informationtechnology;TS=Transportation/Storage;RE=Realestate
Source:NBS;J.P.Morgan
Retailsales:goodsvs.catering/restaurantspending
%oya,3mma
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Retailsales-catering/
restaurantspending
goods
Headlineretailsales
Retailsales-
201920202021202220232024
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
China:retailsales
%oya,3mmaRetailsales
ex.auto
Total
80-60-40-
20e
0--20--40-
Autosalesvalue
201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
-10
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
Retailsalesgrowthbreakdown
15
10
5
0
-5
%
Jan-JuneJune
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
7
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch
15July2024
China:Unemploymentrates
Surveyunemploymentrate
31city(LHS)
%,bothscales
5.04.84.64.44.24.03.83.6
Urban(LHS)
SurveyunemploymentrateIl
Registereduneploymentrate(RHS)/
7.06.56.05.55.04.54.0
101112131415161718192021222324
Source:MHRSS,NBS,J.P.Morgan
Chinahouseholdssavingrate
%sa,bothscales
Urban
Rural
Total
41
.⃞
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
161718192021222324
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Chinafixedassetsinvestmentbyindustry
%oya,ytd
%share(2023)
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Totalfixedinvestment
100.0
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
Manufacturing
34.2
9.9
9.7
9.6
9.5
Infrastructure
21.7
6.5
6.0
5.7
5.4
-Transportinfrastructure
10.1
7.9
8.2
7.1
6.6
-Waterconservation,environmentmanag.
11.6
0.3
-1.0
-1.5
0.7
Realestate
13.5
-9.5
-9.8
-10.1
-10.1
Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan
Retailsalesvaluegrowth(%oya,ytd)
%share(2023)
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Overall
100.0
4.7
4.1
4.1
3.7
AboveDesignatedSizeEnterpriseConsumerstaplegoods
4.9
4.0
3.9
2.9
Garments/footwear
8.5
2.5
1.5
2.0
1.3
Daily-useitems
4.6
0.7
1.5
2.7
2.3
Consumerdurablegoods
Furniture
0.9
3.0
2.5
3.0
2.6
Constructionmaterials
0.9
2.4
0.6
-0.4
-1.2
Automobiles
29.4
3.8
1.4
0.2
-1.1
Householdelectronics
5.3
5.8
5.5
7.0
3.1
Luxuryconsumergoods
Cosmetics
2.5
3.4
2.1
5.4
1.0
Jewelry
2.0
4.5
3.6
0.9
0.2
Source:NBSpressrelease
8
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearchChina
15July2024
Disclosures
AnalystCertification:TheResearchAnalyst(s)denotedbyan“AC”onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleResearchAnalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theResearchAnalystdenotedbyan“AC”onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreport
accuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst’spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyofthe
ResearchAnalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythe
ResearchAnalyst(s)inthisreport.ForallKorea-basedResearchAnalystslistedonthefrontcover,ifapplicable,theyalsocertify,asperKOFIA
requirements,thattheResearchAnalyst’sanalysiswasmadeingoodfaithandthattheviewsreflecttheResearchAnalyst’sownopinion,withoutundueinfluenceorintervention.
AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.
ImportantDisclosures
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whereyoucanalsosearchbyanalystname,sectororfinancialinstrument.
ExplanationofEmergingMarketsSovereignResearchRatingsSystemandValuation&Methodology:
RatingsSystem:J.P.MorganusesthefollowingissuerportfolioweightingsforEmergingMarketsSovereignResearch:Overweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtooutperformtherelevantindex,sector,orbenchmarkcreditreturns);
Marketweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtoperforminlinewiththerelevantindex,sector,or
benchmarkcreditreturns);andUnderweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtounderperformthe
relevantindex,sector,orbenchmarkcreditreturns).NRisNotRated.Inthiscase,J.P.Morganhasremovedtheratingforthissecuritybecauseofeitherlegal,regulatoryorpolicyreasonsorbecauseoflackofasufficientfundamentalbasis.Thepreviousratingnolongershouldbereliedupon.AnNRdesignationisnotarecommendationorarating.NCisNotCovered.AnNCdesignationisnotaratingorarecommendation.
Recommendationswillbeattheissuerlevel,andanissuerrecommendationappliestoalloftheindex-eligiblebondsatthesamelevelfortheissuer.Whenwechangetheissuer-levelrating,wearechangingtheratingforalloftheissuescovered,unlessotherwisespecified.Ratingsforquasi-sovereignissuersintheEMBIGmaydifferfromtheratingsprovidedinEMcorporatecoverage.
Valuation&Methodology:ForJ.P.Morgan'sEmergingMarketsSovereignResearch,weassignaratingtoeachsovereignissuer(Overweight,MarketweightorUnderweight)basedonourviewofwhetherthecombinationoftheissuer’sfundamentals,markettechnicals,andtherelativevalueofitssecuritieswillcauseittooutperform,performinlinewith,orunderperformthecreditreturnsoftheEMBIGDindexoverthenext
threemonths.Ourviewofanissuer’sfundamentalsincludesouropinionofwhethertheissuerisbecomingmoreorlessabletoserviceitsdebtobligationswhentheybecomedueandpayable,aswellaswhetheritswillingnesstoservicedebtobligationsisincreasingordecreasing.
J.P.MorganEmergingMarketsSovereignResearchRatingsDistribution,asofJuly6,2024
Overweight
(buy)
Marketweight
(hold)
Underweight
(sell)
GlobalSovereignResearchUniverse*
11%
79%
11%
IBclients**
29%
48%
86%
*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.
**Percentageofsubjectissuerswithineachofthe"Overweight,"Marketweight"and"Underweight"categoriesforwhichJ.P.Morganhasprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months.
ForpurposesofFINRAratingsdistributionrulesonly,ourOverweightratingfallsintoabuyratingcategory;ourMarketweightrating
fallsintoaholdratingcategory;andourUnderweightratingfallsintoasellratingcategory.TheEmergingMarketsSovereign
ResearchRatingDistributionisattheissuerlevel.IssuerswithanNRoranNCdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Thisinformationiscurrentasoftheendofthemostrecentcalendarquarter.
Analysts'Compensation:Theresearchanalystsresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreportreceivecompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingthequalityandaccuracyofresearch,clientfeedback,competitivefactors,andoverallfirmrevenues.
Registrationofnon-USAnalysts:Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedonthefrontofthisreportareemployeesofnon-US
affiliatesofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC,maynotberegisteredasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241or2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
9
HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@
JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002
grace.h.ng@
TingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@
JiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch
15July2024
OtherDisclosures
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