BDA-老虎基金金融产品服务市场案例研究-EN-2015 02 12

StudyonFinancialProductsFeb12nd,2015ForTigerGlobal©BDA20152TableofContentsMoneyMarketFundAlipayP2PPlatformLowRiskProductsHighRiskProductsAntFinancialGrouppartiallyheldbyAlibabaGroupmainlyconsistsofAlipay,AliMicroLoans,andZhaoCaiBao;BDAexpectsgreatgrowthovertheyearsinAli’sspecificMMFproduct,YuErBao3AlipayThird-partyPaymentYuErBao(Moneymarket

fund,MMF)AliMicroLoansLoansforTaobaoMerchants,AlibabaB2BMerchantsandTaobaoConsumersZhaoCaiBaoPrimaryandsecondarytradingofWealthManagementProducts(WMP)AntFinancialGroupSource:CompanyIndo,BDAinterviewsandanalysisTheAlibabaGroupwillown33%ofsharesafterAntFinancialGroup’sownershiprestructuringAliFinance’sCurrentInitiativesGrowthPotentialofAliFinance’sCurrentBusinessLines035201312023ZhaoCaiBaoAliMicroLoanAlipay-MMFAlipay-Payment2018E49110112014E19Unit:USDBNRevenue1ProjectionofAntFinancialGroupNote:1.ItmeasuresthenetrevenueofAntFinancialGroupratherthanitsGMVAlipay’srevenueisexpectedtoreachUSD6BNin2018;MoneyMarketFundwillcontribute28%oftotalrevenueby2018,representinga22%CAGR…4MoneyMarketFundPayment2018E1,505

(28%)CAGR:+24%6,1071,696

(28%)4,411

(72%)2017E5,2973,792

(72%)2016E4,3411,276

(29%)3,065

(71%)2015E3,4311,023

(30%)2,408

(70%)2014E2,591760

(29%)1,831

(71%)20131,646412

(25%)1,234

(75%)RevenueofAlipay(2013-2018E)Unit:USDMN25%22%Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysisCAGR(2014E-2018E)…whilethegrossprofitofAlipayisexpectedtoreachUSD3BNin2018,contributedbyMMFproductwithUSD1BN5CAGR:+27%MoneyMarketFundPayment2018E3,3641,090

(32%)2,274

(68%)2017E2,853968

(34%)1,886

(66%)2016E2,305820

(36%)1,485

(64%)2015E1,787658

(37%)1,130

(63%)2014E1,313489

(37%)824

(63%)2013805265

(33%)540

(67%)GrossProfitofAlipayUnit:USDMN29%22%Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysisCAGR(2014E-2018E)China’sMMFmarketwillkeepgrowingataCAGRof30%andexceedUSD480MNby2018,withonlinepenetrationclimbingstablyfrom42%to50%62013120~0%33%67%~100%2012962011~100%80~0%CAGR:+30%OnlineOffline2018E53850%50%2017E44148%52%2016E34946%54%2015E26544%56%2014E18942%58%Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysisChina’sMMFMarketSize(2013–2018E)Unit:USDBNOverallmarketsize:China’sMMFmarketisUSD189BNfor2014BenchmarkingtheU.S.market,China’sMMFwillgrowtowards15%ofhouseholddepositsby2018Onlinepenetrationrate:OnlineMMFproductsstartedtoemergein2013TheonlineMMFpenetrationrateis42%for2014andwillkeepclimbingandachieve50%in2018YuErBao

iscurrentlythedominantplayer,butitssharewillgraduallydiminishtoaround60%in2018,duetothehomogeneousproductofferingsofitscompetitorsandfiercecompetition72018E60%2017E68%2016E75%2015E83%2014E90%201398%Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysisYuErBao’sGMVandMarketShare(2013–2018E)Unit:USDBNCurrentstatus:YuErBaoiscurrentlythedominantplayerintheonlineMMFmarketFutureprospective:AsonlineMMFproductsarelargelyhomogeneous,YuErBao’sshareisunlikelytobemaintainedatthecurrentlevelinthefutureInthelongrun,whenpurchasingMMFproducts,individualinvestorstendtochoosetheirmostcommonlyusedpaymentchannel,thereforeYuErBao’sshareinthefutureislikelytofollowAlipay’sshareinthethird-partypaymentmarketYuErBao’sgrosstakerateisaround0.42%,whichconsistsofcustodyfees,salescommissions,andpartoftheadministrationfees;thenettakerateis0.27%afterdeductingcommissionspaidtobanks8Note:1.TheB2Bsectorisanexception,asthesetransactionsarelikelytobechargedafixedcommissionforeachsingletransactionduetotheirlargevolume.Therefore,theimpliedcommissionratemaybeaslowas0.03%.Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysisTakeRateofYuErBaoSalesCommissionsNetTakeRate0.27%0.25%CommissionsPaidtoBanks0.15%CustodyFees0.08%GrossTakeRate0.42%ShareofAdministrationFees10.09%YuErBao’stakerateisexpectedtoremainrelativelystableinthefutureYuErBaohasadominantpositioninthemarket,andtheindustrycompetitionlandscapeisrelativelystable,sowedon’texpectanysignificantchangesinYuErBao’stakerateThusweestimatethattherevenueofAlipay’sMMFbusinesswillreachUSD1.8BNin2018,whilethegrossprofitwillreachUSD1.1BNin2018,bothwithaCAGRof22%9CAGR:+22%2018E1,6962017E1,6392016E1,3542015E1,0562014E7602013412RevenueofAlipay’sMMFBusinessUnit:USDMNGrossProfitofAlipay’sMMFBusinessUnit:USDMNCAGR:+22%2018E1,0902017E1,0542016E8712015E6792014E4892013265Source:BDAinterviewsandanalysis10TableofContentsMoneyMarketFundP2PPlatformLowRiskProductsTongBanJieHighRiskP2PLuFaxJimuboxTBJactsasamarketplaceforinvestorsandlenders,notowningasset;TBJoffersstandardproductsandfactoringwithlowreturnalongwithlowrisk11BusinessmodelofFactoringUsers3rdpartyDepositoryBank/ShenzhenCaiwen1234675PartnersPartnersprovideproductstoTBJ.Microlendingcompanies/factoringcompaniesreachouttoTBJforspecificproductstheyrequiresfinancingservicesfor.TBJliststheseproductsinitsinterface..UserspurchasetheproductsandwiretheirmoneytoShenzhenCaiwen,arelatedpartyofTBJ(Microlending/factoring).Moneyissoonwiredtopartners’account.PartnerswiretheservicefeetoTBJamonthlater.Aftertheproductmatures,partnerswireinvestors’principalandtheinterestsbacktothe3rdpartydepositorybankorShenzhenCaiwen.3rdpartydepositorybankorShenzhenCaiwenwillwiretheprincipalandinterestbacktotheinvestors.1234567StandardproductsStandardproductsaremainlyMMFs,providinglowreturnalongwithlowrisk.FactoringFactoringproductsaredirectedbyTBJ’sfactoringpartner,XinYin.Currentlytheproductsarereceivablesfromcertainindustries.

Platformactsasamarketplaceforinvestorsandlenders,notowningtheassetandbearinglittlerisk.TBJisarepresentativeProductsProvideseasyaccesstoguaranteedfinancialproductsTBJactsasamarketplaceandprovidesavarietyofproductsofferingconsumerseasyaccesstofinancialproducts.Besides,thepurchasingprocessissimpleandcanbedonethroughtheapp.UptaketoConsumersSource:BDAinterviewandanalysisAUMquicklyexpandedin2014reachingUSD104MNinOctober2014,19timesofthatinJanuary;Originationofstandardproductsandfactoringgrewathighpacein2014aswell12Unit:USDMN345Factoring5662014/1396022812014/10222014/7104342014/4Standardprodcuts19xAUM1QuicklyExpandedin2014Unit:USDMN716542Q-149261Q-143Q-144Q-133Q-13+96%OriginationofStandardproduct(3Q13-3Q14)Unit:USDMN2014/6+206%2014/772014/51322014/45OriginationofFactoring(Apr–July2014)Source:BDAinterviewandanalysisNote

1:AssetundermanagementConsideringTBJ’sexposuretostandardproducts(withverylowcommissionrates)andtakingproductperiodsintoaccount,theactualcommissionrateforTBJshouldbearound0.5%.Non-standardProductsAveragePeriod(#ofMonths)P2PMicroFinancingFactoringSecuritizationNominalCommissionRate2ActualCommissionRate3ProductTransactionMix1StandardProduct30%40%10%~3.5-441AverageActualCommissionRate:~0.5%20%Note:1.Adoptedproducttransactionmixaccordingtomanagement’sprojections.2.Thecommissionratehereistheannualizedcommissionrate3.Commissionas%oftransactionvalue;TBJchargedcommissionfeestopartners,aftertakingproductperiodsintoaccount,theactualcommissionis0.05%and0.5%forstandardproductandfactoringrespectively……2.5%2.5%2.0%1.7%0.2%0.05%0.70%0.50%0.80%0.80%Source:BDAinterviewandanalysisCommissionChargedfromBorrowers(Partners)13……InterestrateofborrowersandyieldratetolendersaremainlydirectedbyTBJ’spartners;Interestrateforpartnersisattherangeof10-13%;TBJ’syieldratestolendersare6.1%and7.5%forstandardproductsandfactoringproductsrespectively14ProductFeaturesNon-standardProductsPeriod(#ofMonths)InterestRate(%)P2PMicroFinancingFactoringSecuritization6~123~61~6121NominalCommissionRate(%)ProductFeatures2.5%2.5%1.7%2.0%8.0%7.5%9.0%10.0%FinancialCostsofTBJ’sPartnersDongRongDHQJieYueTongXinTBJWacaiYingYing12%12%12%Others12-13%12-13%10-11%10-11%13%14%113.7%1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AKeyPlayersNote1:WacaiandotherplatformsarehigherthanTBJduetotheguaranteeexpenses;thefinancialcostisnegligibleSource:BDAinterviewandanalysisTBJ’smaininterfaceconsistsoffourparts:HotProduct,ProductList,MyAssetsandMore.HotProductTBJUserInterfaceProductListMyAssetsMore…Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisTheoperationalflowofTBJisstraightforward,andprimarilycontainsproductdisplay,orderplacingandaccountmanagementSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisMoreTBJUserInterfaceMyAssetProductListHotProductProductIntroductionBuyFundSafetyInsuranceProductDetailGuaranteeofPaymentRiskLevelFinancialcalculatorBuyMoreDetailAgreementsSubmitInsuranceDetailProductIntroductionMessageCentreTotalAssetTotalInterestEarnedTransactionRecordAssetListPromotionMyTongBanJieInviteFriendProductsPreviewSettingHotProduct-HomepageBuy:Byclickingthisbutton,youcanjumptothenextstepforplacinganorder

Productintroductionincludingproductname,duration,andyield:inthisexample,thisproductiscalled“YiTongJinNo.93,”with7daysofinvestmenttermsand5.20%annualizedinterest.Thereisonlyonefeaturedproductdisplayedateachtime.12Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisFundsafetyinsurance:Byclickingthisbutton,youcanjumptothedetailedtermsandconditionsoftheinsurance3HotProduct-ProductIntroductionSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisProductdetailsGuaranteeandsourceofrepayment12Riskleveloftheinvestment3Moreabouttheproduct4Financialcalculator5Buy6HotProduct-ProductIntroduction-ProductDetailSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisUsageoftheloan:Borrowerintroduction:Here,abriefintroductionoftheborrowerisprovided,includingtheestablishmentdate,industry,employees,revenuesizeandsoon,butthenameofthecompanyisnotdisclosedonthispage.Loanintroduction:Briefintroductionofthedebt,includingthepartner,natureofthedebt.132ProductDetailHotProduct-ProductIntroduction-ProductDetail(Continued)Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisGuaranteeonsafetyoffunds:Emphasisonfundsafety,buttheinvestmentriskisnotcovered.Loancontractscreenshot12ProductDetailHotProduct-ProductIntroduction-GuaranteeofRepayment&RiskLevelSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisSuggestionofPortfolio:Portfoliosuggestionsforinvestorsofdifferentriskpreferences.GuaranteeofRepayment:Thesourcethatguaranteestherepayment,includingnormalrepayments,guaranteesfromtheownerofthecompany,insuranceorguaranteesbyathirdparty,andtheriskreserveofTBJ.Introductionoftherisksystem:Riskisclassifiedintothreelevelsbasedonthenatureoftheloan.132GuaranteeofRepaymentRiskLevelHotProduct-ProductIntroduction-MoreDetailSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisDetailoftheLoan:Here,furtherdetailsontheloanareprovided,includingtotalamount,anticipatedannualinterestrate,term,startingdate,closingdate,andminimumamountofinvestment.Inthisexample,fortheloanwithatotalamountofRMB18MN(USD2.9MN),thetermstartson19/11/2014andendson26/11/2014.TheminimalamountshouldbeRMB100(USD16).PaymentMethod:Listofsupportedbanks12MoreDetailHotProduct-ProductIntroduction-FinancialCalculatorSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisFinancialCalculator:Aninvestmenttoolisprovidedtoinvestorstocalculatetheestimatedreturn1BuyHotProduct-BuyServiceagreements:InvestorsneedtoagreewiththetermsandconditionsoftheseagreementsInvestmentamount:InvestorscaninvestRMB100(USD16)oraboveforeachloan.Personalandpaymentdetails:Investorsneedtoprovidetheirfullname,IDandbankdetailsinordertocompletetheinvestment132Submit:Makingthisinvestmentbyclickingonthisbutton4BuyBuySource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisHotProduct-Buy-ServiceAgreementsRiskReminder:Areminderabouttherisksincurredbythisinvestment,suchascreditrisk,liquidityrisk,marketriskandsoon.PaymentServiceAgreement:Theagreementbetweeninvestorsandthepaymentagency,includingUnionpay.AssetTransfer&RepurchaseAgreement:AgreementbetweeninvestorsandTBJ’spartners,detailsofthetermsandconditionsarealsointheagreement.132ServiceAgreementsSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisHotProduct-Submit/BuySource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisTransactionstatus:Theorderissuccessfullyplacedandlateritcanbefoundintheinvestmenthistory.Clickthered“OK”buttontogobacktolastpage.1Submit/BuyHotProduct-FundsSafetyInsuranceSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisFundsafetyinsuranceagreement:Theinsurancetermsincludetheduration,responsibility,dateeffective,andsoon.Ifthereisalosscausedbyunexpectedcircumstancessuchashackerattacks,accountsbeingstolen,ITcrashesandsoon,theinsurancecompanywillcompensatetheinvestor.Pleasenotethattheinvestmentlossisnotcoveredbytheinsurance.1FundsSafetyInsuranceInsuranceAgreementProductList–HomePageSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisIrregularlylaunchedproductswhichwillgooffshelfoncethefinancingamountisreached;clicktoshowfulllist1ProductListSelectedirregularloanproducts2ShowAllLongtermproduct:Theseproductsdonothaveparticulartermsandtotalfinancingamounts.Normallytheyaremonetaryfunds,sothatinvestorscanbuyandsellanytime.Clicktoshowfulllist3Selectedlongtermproduct4ProductList–FullListofIrregularProductsSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisTheredLabelindicatesthattheproductisonsale,andthegreylabelindicatesthattheproductissoldout.3ShowAllIrregularProductsAllIrregularProductsThisistheproductintroductionpagethatcontainsexactlythesamefactorsasthehotproductsmentionedbefore.12BuyProductList–FullListofMonetaryFundsSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisShowAllLongTermProductsThisistheproductintroductionpagecontainingexactlythesamefactorsasthehotproductmentionedbefore.1ListofAllLongTermProductsMyAsset-HomepageTotalInterestEarnedMessageCentre14Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisAssetList5TotalAssets2TransactionRecord3MyAsset-MessageCentre,TransactionRecord&InvestmentDetailSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisMessageCentre:Systemnotification,promotions,andothermessageswillappearinthisfolder1MessageCentreTransactionRecordTransactionRecord:Thebuyingandsellinghistoryofinvestorswillbelistedinthisfolder2InvestmentDetail:Detailsofeachloanwillbeshownhere,includingprinciple,interest,paymentandsoon.3InvestmentDetailMore-HomepagePromotion14Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisSettings5MyTBJ2InviteFriend3LoanProductPreviewMore-MyTBJ&InviteFriend“MyTBJ”isaloyaltyprogram.Everytimeaninvestorinvests,he/shewillearnacertainamountofcredits.Thesecreditscanbeusedformobilerechargesandothergifts.12MyTBJMyTBJInvestorscaninvitefriendstojoinTBJthroughWeChat,Weibo,SMSandotherSNSInviteFriendSource:BDAscreenshotandanalysisMore-LoanProductsPreviewLoanproductspreview:Inthissection,thefeaturedproductwithinafewdayswillbeshown1Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisLoanProductsPreviewLoanProductsPreviewMore-SettingsPersonaldetailsettings1Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisSettingSettingCustomerservicedetails2AboutTongBanJie3RecommendedApps(currentlynotavailable)4SignOut5More–Setting-PersonalDetails&AboutTBJPersonaldetailsettings:Includingmobilenumber,passwordandotherpersonalsettings.1Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisAboutTongbanjie:Investorscanratetheapp,checkforupdates,andlearnmoreaboutTongbanjie2PersonalDetailPersonalDetailAboutTBJMore-CustomerServiceDetailCustomerServiceHotline1Source:BDAscreenshotandanalysisInvestorscanfollowTBJonSNSandcanalsoreachthecustomerserviceteamthroughEmail.2CustomerServiceDetailLeaveaMessageThroughThisApp2CustomerService39TableofContentsMoneyMarketFundP2PPlatformLowRiskProductsZhaoCaiBaoHighRiskProductsZhaoCaiBao’sestimatedrevenuewasonlyUSD5MNin2014,butisexpectedtoreacharoundUSD96MNin2018,thankstotheramp-upofinternetpenetration40ZhaoCaiBao’sRevenue(2013–2018E)Unit:USDMN51320132792015E55+112%SecondaryTrading9624PrimaryTrading2017E2229322018E402014E57102016E6718ZhaoCaiBao’sprimarytradingrevenuewillkeepgrowingsteadily,mainlydrivenbyboominginternetpenetrationSecondarytradingisexpectedtomaintainastableportionofprimarytradingonZhaoCaiBaoSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysisCurrently,ZhaoCaiBaoprovidesbothprimarysalesoffixedreturnproductsandsecondarytradingservicetoinvestors,withanannualizedreturnof5-8%;itsrevenuecomesfromthe0.1%intransactioncommissions41ProductUniversalLifeInsuranceProductTypePublicFundLocalGovernmentBondCostofStructuring/GuaranteeInsuranceTransactionCommissionsActualReturntoInvestorsPaidtoZhongAnPaidtoZhaoCaiBaoSecondaryTradingIntroductionAs%ofZhaoCaiBao’sTotalGMVProvidedbyinsurancecompanies,withbothinsuranceandwealthmanagementfunctionsProvidedbypublicfundcompanies,includingequityfunds,bondfunds,andcommingledfundsStructuredfinancialproductsprovidedbyassetexchangesorequityexchangesEnablesinvestorstomonetizetheirownershipofWMPspurchasedonZhaoCaiBaobeforematurity43%20%7%30%FixedreturnWMPDependsontheoriginalproductSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysis0%1-2%forequityfundandstructuredbondfund1-2%0%0.1%Inmostcases,transactionsonZhaoCaiBaomustbeinsuredbyZhongAn,whichusuallycost0.1%ofthetransactionvalue0.1%AsaplatformforWMPtransactions,ZhaoCaiBaousuallycharges0.1%ofthetransactionvalues6-7%5-6%6-7%DependsontheoriginalproductFixedreturnWMPFixedreturnWMPZhaoCaiBao’scompetitivecommissionratetoWMPprovidersaswellitslargetrafficareitscoreadvantagesforWMPproviders;itsbetterliquidityandlowerinvestmentrequirementsmakeitveryattractivetoinvestors42ToWMPProviders:CompetitiveCommissionRateandLargeTrafficZhaoCaiBaoBankUniversalLifeInsurancePublicFundLocalGovernmentBondProductProviders’WillingnesstoCooperatewithZhaoCaiBaoCommissionRateLargetrafficofZhaoCaiBaoenablestheWMPproviderstoselltheirproductsrapidlyMoreimportantly,ZhaoCaiBaoisattractivetoWMPprovidersmainly

duetoitsmuchlowercommissionratesascomparedtobanksInsurancecompanies,especiallythosewithsmallerscales,aremorewillingtocooperatewithZhaoCaiBao,whencomparedwithotherWMPprovidersToInvestors:BetterLiquidityandLowerBarriersZhaoCaiBaohasaclearadvantageintermsofcommissionrate,butlargeinsurancecompaniesarereluctanttocooperatewithitsincetheydon’twanttodispleasebanks,whicharecurrentlytheirlargestsaleschannel.Smallplayers,however,aremorewillingtotrynewchannelslikeZhaoCaiBaoduetolesspressurefrombanks.0.1%2-3%0.1%0.2-0.6%10.1%MostpublicfundshavetobestructuredandguaranteedbeforetheycanbesoldonZhaoCaiBao,sincetheyhavetobedesignedintheformoffixedincomeproducts,thusfundcompaniesarenotthatenthusiastictowardsZhaoCaiBao.Therisksoflocalgovernmentbondproductsarerelativelyhigherthanthoseforinsuranceandfundproducts,whichmakeithardtomeetZhaoCaiBao’srequirements.Therefore,suchproductproviderswillnotfocusmuchonZhaoCaiBao.ZhaoCaiBaoprovidessecondarytradingfunctionstoinvestors,makingitsWMPproductsmoreliquidthanonotherplatforms.Note:1.Variesamongdifferenttypeoffunds.EquityfundsusuallybearhighercommissionratesthanbondfundsBesides,ZhaoCaiBaohaslowerinvestmentrequirementsthanbanks,whichmakesiteasierforinvestorswithlessmoneytoinvest.“ZhaoCaiBao’ssecondarytradingfunctionhasguaranteedtheliquidityofmostmid-termorlong-termWMPs,andisattractivetorisk-averseinvestors.”-Mr.Hu,FormerBDManagerfromAliFinance“TheminimuminvestmentamountforWMPsoldbybanksisnormallyRMB50K,orevenmore,whileforZhaoCai

Bao,it’sonly1,000formostproducts.”-Mr.Zhang,ProductManagerofCGBSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysis2-3%Unit:USDBNChina’sWMPSales(2013–2018E)China’sWMPsalesareexpectedtogrowataCAGRof8%;ZhaoCaiBaomainlyfocusesonfixedreturnWMP,whichaccountsfor10%oftotalWMPsales4311%CAGR:+8%FloatingReturnWMPFixedReturnWMP2015E1,71690%10%2014E11,57590%10%20131,64089%2016E2017E2018E10%90%2,1621,8622,01110%90%10%90%ZhaoCaiBaomainlyfocusesonprovidingfixedreturnWMPZhaoCaiBaoispositionedasaplatformprovidinglower-riskandmedium-returnWMPs,thereforeitsmajorproductsarefixedreturnWMPSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysisNote:1.Since2011,inordertomeettheCBRC'srequirementofloan-to-depositratio,banksissuedWMPtofinancetheirloanbusinessbysellingWMPtootherfinancialinstitutions.ThistypeofWMPisregulatedbythegovernmentattheendof2013,sinceitisinfactcheatingonCBRC.Assuch,thescaleofWMPattheendof2014isexpectedtodecreaseby3-5%.Inthefuture,thescaleofWMPisexpectedtogrowataspeedsimilartothenominalGDP.442017E2018E2016E2015E2014E2013Addressablemarket–FixedReturnWMP(2013–2018E)Unit:USDBNOnlinePenetration(2013–2018E)2016E14%2014E2%20131%2015E2017E2018E26%38%50%ZhaoCaiBao’sShare(2013–2018E)2014E90%2015E2013100%100%2016E2017E2018E80%70%60%GMVofPrimaryTradingonZhaoCaiBao(2013–2018E)2015E2014E2013CAGR:+112%2016E2018E2017EUnit:USDBNSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysisGMVofprimarytradingonZhaoCaiBaoisexpectedtoreachRMB67BNin2018,thankstothesteadygrowthofthefixedreturnWMPmarketandincreasingonlinepenetrationBenchmarkingwiththedevelopmentofMMF,weexpectthattheonlinepenetrationofWMPwillreach50%in2018Asthemarketmaturesandcompetitionarises,inthelongrun,ZhaoCaiBaowillhaveamarketsharesimilartotheshareofAlipayinthepaymentmarketThetotalsizeoffixedreturnWMPhasdeclinedalittlein2014,mainlyduetoregulatoryissues;butitwillcontinuetogrowsteadilyinthefutureZhaoCaiBao’srevenue(2013–2018E)Unit:USDMNZhaoCaiBao’sPrimaryTrading(2013–2018E)Unit:USDBNZhaoCaiBao’srevenueisgeneratedfromitsprimarysalesofWMPandsecondarytradingamongcostumers,bothofwhichcharge0.1%commission4520132018E2017E2016E2015E2014E+127%SecondaryTradingPrimaryTrading2018E9629672017E7924552016E5718402015E3210222014E5132013Takerate10.1%ZhaoCaiBao’sSecondaryTrading(2013–2018E)Unit:RMBBNVolumeofsecondarytradingisassumedtobemaintainedatastableportionofprimarytradingSource:BDAinterviewsandanalysis2018E44%2017E44%2016E44%2015E44%2014E44%2013Note:1.ZhongAnInsurancechargesa0.1%mandatoryinsurancefeeforWMPsoldonZhaoCaiBao,whichiscountedasZhongAn’srevenueAs%ofPrimaryTradingSecondaryTrading46TableofContentsMoneyMarketFundAlipayP2PPlatformLowRiskProductsHighRiskProductsLuFaxP2PplatformsadoptingtheInformationPlatformmodelconnectsborrowersandlendersinapureinformationexchange,andprovidesriskcontrolandloanmanagementservices47BorrowersLendersP2PPlatformInformationPlatform123Source:BDAinterviewandanalysisLendingProcessBorrowersfileapplicationstotheP2PplatformP2Pplatformsattractborrowersthroughofflinesalesteamsoronlineadvertisements;borrowerssendtheirapplicationsandrelevantdocumentstotheplatformsP2P

platformspublishborrowers’informationAfterreviewingtheborrowers’application,P2Pplatformsputtheinformationofthequalifiedapplicantsontheirplatforms,enablinglenderstoselectborrowersLenderslenddirectlytoborrowersWhenlendersdecidetolend,theirmoneyistransferreddirectlytoborrowersthroughthirdpartypaymentcompaniesorcustodianbanksServicefeesP2PplatformschargeservicefeestoborrowersonamonthlybasisorasanupfrontfeeSomeoftheplatformschargelendersservicefeesaswell,usually10%oftheirreturnsRevenueSourceofP2PPlatformsRiskControlP2PplatformsareresponsibleforthewholeriskcontrolprocessLoanManagementMeanwhile,P2Pplatformsarealsoinchargeofdebtcollection,ifanydefaultsoccurValueAddedServices123Lufax’smajorbusinesslineconsistsofUnsecuredP2PandSecuredP2PproductsUnsecuredP2POldProductMar.2012Individualsandsmallbusinessowners8-10360.72%1.2-1.9%NewProduct-1Jul.2013Individualsandsmallbusinessownerswhohavealreadyhadthehouse/automortgagefrombanks20360.72%0.8-1.1%NewProduct-2FutureHighqualityIndividualsandsmallbusinessownerswhohavesufficientcredithistoriesNA360.72%0.75%SecuredP2POldProductJul.2013Smallbusinessownerswhohavetemporarycashshortageandhaverealestatepropertiestouseascollaterals45-2003-60.625-0.65%0.85-1.04%NewProductMar.2014Homebuyerswhoneedshort-term