万达广场商业地产项目销售回款预测表（营销测算）

“万达广场”项目销售回款预测表(方案一:地下小铺位部分预收3年租金),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,单位：万元

项目,总计,备注,2007年9月,2007年10月,2007年11月,2007年12月,2008年1月,2008年2月,2008年3月,2008年4月,2008年5月,2008年6月,2008年7月,2008年8月,2008年9月,2008年10月,2008年11月,2008年12月,2009年,2010年,2011年,2012年,2013年,2014年,2015年,2016年,2017年,2018年,2019年

收入:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

地上,"81,412",2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"5,470","5,470","6,564","6,564","7,877","7,877","9,452","9,452","11,343","11,343"

减:税金(17%),"(13,840)",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(930),(930),"(1,116)","(1,116)","(1,339)","(1,339)","(1,607)","(1,607)","(1,928)","(1,928)"

地上净收入(A),"67,572",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"4,540","4,540","5,448","5,448","6,538","6,538","7,845","7,845","9,414","9,414"

地下,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

地下小铺位,"86,827",3,,,854,"1,207",936,821,821,"1,141","1,527","1,855","1,970","1,757","1,428",993,287,,,,,,"7,374","8,276","9,104","10,014","11,016","12,117","13,329"

地下超市,"5,004",4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,360,360,432,432,518,518,596,596,596,596

小计,"91,831",,,,854,"1,207",936,821,821,"1,141","1,527","1,855","1,970","1,757","1,428",993,287,-,-,360,360,432,"7,806","8,794","9,622","10,610","11,612","12,713","13,925"

减:税金(17%),"(15,611)",5,,,(145),(205),(159),(140),(140),(194),(260),(315),(335),(299),(243),(169),(49),-,-,(61),(61),(73),"(1,327)","(1,495)","(1,636)","(1,804)","(1,974)","(2,161)","(2,367)"

地下净收入(B),"76,220",,0,0,709,"1,002",777,681,681,947,"1,267","1,540","1,635","1,458","1,185",824,238,-,-,299,299,359,"6,479","7,299","7,986","8,806","9,638","10,552","11,558"

总收入(C=A+B),"143,792",,,,709,"1,002",777,681,681,947,"1,267","1,540","1,635","1,458","1,185",824,238,-,-,"4,839","4,839","5,807","11,927","13,837","14,524","16,652","17,483","19,966","20,972"

收入累计,"143,792",,,,709,"1,711","2,488","3,169","3,850","4,797","6,065","7,604","9,240","10,698","11,883","12,707","12,946","12,946","12,946","17,784","22,623","28,430","40,357","54,194","68,718","85,370","102,853","122,820","143,792"

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减:费用支出,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

开业前筹办费,"(1,280)",,(2),(13),(13),(63),(14),(14),(37),(48),(47),(92),(39),(34),(29),(24),(25),(78),(709),,,,,,,,,,

物业管理费,"(28,438)",6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"(2,424)","(2,424)","(2,618)","(2,618)","(2,827)","(2,827)","(3,053)","(3,053)","(3,297)","(3,297)"

市场推广费用,"(11,026)",7,(51),(41),(151),(42),(126),(159),(126),(206),(90),(98),(78),(90),(78),(85),(57),(54),(93),(633),(633),(692),(718),(833),(875),"(1,003)","(1,053)","(1,702)","(1,263)"

营销管理费用,"(5,970)",8,(2),(16),(21),(30),(23),(20),(20),(28),(38),(46),(49),(44),(36),(25),(7),(9),(228),(380),(380),(415),(431),(500),(525),(602),(632),(722),(758)

总支出(D),"(46,731)",,(54),(70),(185),(134),(163),(193),(183),(282),(174),(236),(166),(168),(142),(134),(89),(141),"(1,030)","(3,437)","(3,437)","(3,725)","(3,767)","(4,160)","(4,227)","(4,658)","(4,738)","(5,721)","(5,318)"

税前利润(C-D),"97,060",,(54),(70),524,867,613,488,498,666,"1,093","1,304","1,469","1,291","1,043",691,149,(141),"(1,030)","1,402","1,402","2,082","8,160","9,677","10,297","11,994","12,745","14,246","15,654"

减:企业所得税,"(24,700)",9,,,(173),(286),(153),(122),(125),(166),(273),(326),(367),(323),(261),(173),(37),,,(350),(350),(520),"(2,040)","(2,419)","(2,574)","(2,998)","(3,186)","(3,561)","(3,914)"

税后利润,"72,360",,(54),(70),351,581,460,366,374,499,820,978,"1,102",968,783,518,112,(141),"(1,030)","1,051","1,051","1,561","6,120","7,258","7,723","8,995","9,559","10,684","11,741"

累计税后利润,"72,360",,(54),(124),227,808,"1,268","1,634","2,008","2,507","3,327","4,305","5,407","6,375","7,158","7,676","7,787","7,646","6,616","7,668","8,719","10,280","16,401","23,658","31,381","40,376","49,935","60,620","72,360"

税前投资回报率(=税前利润/项目投资总额),122.86%,,-0.07%,-0.09%,0.66%,1.10%,0.78%,0.62%,0.63%,0.84%,1.38%,1.65%,1.86%,1.63%,1.32%,0.87%,0.19%,-0.18%,-1.30%,1.77%,1.77%,2.64%,10.33%,12.25%,13.03%,15.18%,16.13%,18.03%,19.82%

税后投资回报率(=税后利润/项目投资总额),91.60%,,-0.07%,-0.09%,0.44%,0.74%,0.58%,0.46%,0.47%,0.63%,1.04%,1.24%,1.39%,1.23%,0.99%,0.66%,0.14%,-0.18%,-1.30%,1.33%,1.33%,1.98%,7.75%,9.19%,9.78%,11.39%,12.10%,13.52%,14.86%

项目投资总额,"79,000",,,,,2007年度税后投资回报率,,1.02%,,2007年度所得税前投资回报率,,,1.61%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,制表日期：2007年7月26日,

,,,,,,2008年度税后投资回报率,,8.66%,,2008年度所得税前投资回报率,,,11.60%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

备注:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

"1、假设本预测是按商场2009年底开业（2009年为筹备开业期）,2007年11月取得“四证”，并在营业执照的经营范围中办理了出租或租赁的增项",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

2、地上购物中心租金收入：首年度租金水平已经综合考虑市场租金折扣、出租率及相关优惠条件等因素，2010年租金收入=每月每平220*使用面积29600*12*70%/10000=5470，以后每年租金递增按照每两年递增20%的水平调整，即平均每年递增10%。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

"3、地下小铺位部分：使用面积约15,000米,每月每平米使用面积380元(含管理费),租期3年,打八折，3年总出租额=15,000*380*0.8*12*3*0.95/10000=15,595万元,2007年及2008年各月回款额是根据出租率及回款率计算的,出租率及回款率预测见备注13，各月回款额=本月出租额*65%+上月出租额*35%。2013年起,按原标准租金计算,每年租金递增10%，2013出租率98%，以后各年均为100%，即2013年租金回款额=380*15000*12/10000*（1+10%）*98%=7374万元，2014年租金回款额=7374万元/98%*1.1=8276万元,以后各年回款额=上年回款额*1.1",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

"4、地下超市部分：使用面积约5,000米,每月每平米使用面积60元(含管理费)，2010年回款额=5000*60*12/10000=360万元，以后各年回款额增加比例见备注14",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

5、税金是按收入的17%计算，即5%的营业税及12%的房产税之和,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

6、物业管理费成本:首年是按每月每平米35*使用面积57704*12个月;以后各年物业管理成本按照每两年递增8%的水平调整。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

7、市场推广费用按照租金收入（地上+地下）的5%计算，2010到2012年每年按（当年地上租金收入+地下超市租金收入+地下小铺位当年应确认租金收入（从预收转入））*5%计算；开业前推广费用及筹办费按原营销中心预算不变。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

8、营销管理费用开业前是按总收入的3%计算。2009年按2010年60%计算。开业后按租金收入（地上+地下）的3%计算，2010到2012年每年按（当年地上租金收入+地下超市租金收入+地下小铺位当年应确认租金收入（从预收转入））*3%计算,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

9、企业所得税：2007年按所得税前利润的33%计算，2008起按新所得税法25%计算。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

10、上述收入未计算项目的停车场收益。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

11、上述收入未计算项目内公共空间临时租金的收入。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

12、上述收入未计算项目内所有广告位及屏幕电视广告的收入。,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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13、2007及2008年各月出租率及回款率预测,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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,,,,2007年,,2008年,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,有超市,,20520,11月份,12月份,1月份,2月份,3月份,4月份,5月份,6月份,7月份,8月份,9月份,10月份,11月份,12月份,小计,,,,,,,,,,,

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小铺位部分,出租率预测,,,8%,7%,5%,5%,5%,8%,10%,12%,12%,10%,8%,5%,0%,0%,95%,,,,,,,,,,,

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,出租额预测,,,"1,313","1,149",821,821,821,"1,313","1,642","1,970","1,970","1,642","1,313",821,0,0,"15,595",,,,,,,,,,,

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,回款率预测,,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,65%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,35%,,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,加上月35%,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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14、地下超市部分回款额增加比例,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

2010年,2011年,,2012年,2013年,2014年,2015年,20