大摩-特斯拉会制造手机么？-2024-06-新势力

Morganstanley

June12,202410:00AMGMT

RESEARCH

Update

TeslaInc|NorthAmerica

WillTeslaDoaPhone?Yeah,

WeThinkSo.

IwouldgreatlyappreciateyoursupportfortheMorganStanleyAuto&AutoPartsteaminthisyear'sAll-AmericaInstitutionalInvestorsurvey.Thanks,AJ

Howtovote:Torequestaballot,pleasegoto

andselect“All-AmericanResearchTeam”.

•Fromourcontinuingdiscussionswithautomotivemanagementteamsandindustryexperts,thecarisanextensionofthephone.Thephoneisan

extensionofthecar.Thelinesbetweencarandphonearetrulyblurring.

•Foryears,wehavebeenwritingaboutthepotentialforTeslatoexpandintoedgecomputedomainsbeyondthecar,includinglastOctoberwherewe

describedamobileAIassistantasa

‘heavykey.’

FollowingApple’sWWDC,TeslaCEOElonMuskre-ignitedthetopicbysayingthatmakingsuchadevicei

s‘notoutofthequestion.’

AsMr.MuskcontinuestoinvestfurtherintohisownLLM/genAIefforts,suchas

‘Grok’,

thepotentialstrategicanduser-

experienceoverlapbecomesmoreobvious.

•Fromanautomotiveperspective,thetopicofsupercomputingatboththedatacenterlevelandattheedgearehighlyrelevantgiventheincrementalglobalunitsoldisacarthatcanperformOTAupdatesoffirmware,hasabatterywithastoredenergyequivalentofapprox.2,000iPhones,anda

liquidcooledinferencesupercomputer

asstandardkit.Whatifyourphonecouldtapintoyourvehicle’scomputepowerandbatterysupplytorunAIapplications?

•EdgecomputeandAIhavebroughttolightsomeofthechallenges(batterylife,thermal,latency,etc.)ofmarryingtoday’ssmartphoneswithevermorepowerfulAI-drivenapplications.Numerousmediareportshavediscussed

OpenAIpotentiallydevelopinga

consumerdevices

pecificallydesignedforAI.

•Thephoneasa(heavy)carkey?AnyTeslaownerwilltellyouhowtheyusetheirsmartphoneastheirprimarykeytounlocktheircaraswellasrunningotherremoteapplicationswhiletheyinteractwiththeirvehicles.The‘actionbutton’ontheiPhone15potentiallytakesthistoadifferentlevelof

convenience.

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

AdamJonas,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Adam.Jonas@

+1212761-1726

DanielaMHaigian

ResearchAssociate

Daniela.Haigian@

+1212761-6071

SeanKCorley

ResearchAssociate

Sean.Corley@

+1212761-9518

WilliamJTackett

ResearchAssociate

William.Tackett@

+1212761-6028

TeslaInc(TSLA.O,TSLAUS)

Autos&SharedMobility|UnitedStatesofAmerica

StockRatingIndustryViewPricetarget

Shrprice,close(Jun11,2024)Mktcap,curr(mm)

52-WeekRange

OverweightAttractive$310.00

$170.66 $594,579$299.29-138.80

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

2

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

Exhibit1:Timetobringbackthecarphone?

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Update

ValuationMethodologyandRisks

TeslaInc(TSLA.O)

OurPTof$310iscomprisedof6components:(1)$67/shareforcoreTeslaAutobusinesson6.1mmunitsin2030,9.0%WACC,13x2030exitEBITDAmultiple,exitEBITDAmarginof18.4%.(2)TeslaMobilityat$61onDCFwith~158kcarsat$1.8/mileby2030.(3)Teslaasa3rdpartysupplierat$40/share.4)Energyat$36/share,5)Insuranceat$5/share,&6)NetworkServicesat$100,15.4mmMAUs,$180ARPUby2030,50%discount.

RiskstoUpside

nDisclosureonservicerevs

nIncreasedFSDattachrate

nCostmilestonesonnewbattery

nNewmodelintro(Cybertruck,multivan,Semi)

n3rdpartybatterywin

nGeographicpenetration&newcapacity

RiskstoDownside

nCompetition:legacyOEMs/Chineseplayers/bigtech

nExecutionrisk:multiplefactoryramps

nMarketdoesnotrecognizeDojo-enabledservicesop,lowerthanexpectedattachrate&RPU

nChinarisk

nDilution

nValuation

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

Morganstanley

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DisclosureSection

TheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedbyMorganStanley&Co.LLC,and/orMorganStanleyC.T.V.M.S.A.,and/orMorganStanleyMexico,CasadeBolsa,

S.A.deC.V.,and/orMorganStanleyCanadaLimited.Asusedinthisdisclosuresection,"MorganStanley"includesMorganStanley&Co.LLC,MorganStanleyC.T.V.M.S.A.,MorganStanleyMexico,CasadeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.,MorganStanleyCanadaLimitedandtheiraffiliatesasnecessary.

Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsiteat/researchdisclosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY,10036USA.

Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:AdamJonas,CFA.

.

GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy

MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailableat/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.APortugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundat.br

ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies

AsofMay31,2024,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:AmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AsburyAutomotiveGroupInc,AutoNationInc.,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,CarmaxInc,CarvanaCo,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,Group1Automotive,Inc,LearCorporation,LithiaMotorsInc.,LucidGroupInc,PHINIAINC,QuantumscapeCorp,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,SonicAutomotiveInc,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofAvisBudgetGroupInc,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,MobileyeGlobalInc,QuantumscapeCorp,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAvisBudgetGroupInc,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,HertzGlobalHoldingsInc,PenskeAutomotiveGroup,Inc,QuantumscapeCorp,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc.

Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AutoNationInc.,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,CarvanaCo,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,HertzGlobalHoldingsInc,LearCorporation,LithiaMotorsInc.,MagnaInternationalInc.,MobileyeGlobalInc,PenskeAutomotiveGroup,Inc,QuantumscapeCorp,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromAmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,HertzGlobalHoldingsInc,LearCorporation,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasprovidedorisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicesto,orhasaninvestmentbankingclientrelationshipwith,thefollowingcompany:AmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AutoNationInc.,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,CarvanaCo,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,HertzGlobalHoldingsInc,LearCorporation,LithiaMotorsInc.,MagnaInternationalInc.,MobileyeGlobalInc,PenskeAutomotiveGroup,Inc,QuantumscapeCorp,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhaseitherprovidedorisprovidingnon-investmentbanking,securities-relatedservicestoand/orinthepasthasenteredintoanagreementtoprovideservicesorhasaclientrelationshipwiththefollowingcompany:AmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,HertzGlobalHoldingsInc,LearCorporation,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

Anemployee,directororconsultantofMorganStanleyisadirectorofGeneralMotorsCompany.Thispersonisnotaresearchanalystoramemberofaresearchanalyst'shousehold.

MorganStanley&Co.LLCmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAdientPLC,AmericanAxle&ManufacturingHoldingsInc,AptivPlc,AsburyAutomotiveGroupInc,AutoNationInc.,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,CarmaxInc,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,Group1Automotive,Inc,LearCorporation,LithiaMotorsInc.,MagnaInternationalInc.,MobileyeGlobalInc,PenskeAutomotiveGroup,Inc,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,SonicAutomotiveInc,TeslaInc,VisteonCorporation.

TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganStanleyResearchhavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverallinvestmentbankingrevenues.EquityResearchanalysts'orstrategists'compensationisnotlinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.

MorganStanleyanditsaffiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,includingmarketmaking,providingliquidity,fundmanagement,commercialbanking,extensionofcredit,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleysellstoandbuysfromcustomersthesecurities/instrumentsofcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchonaprincipalbasis.MorganStanleymayhaveapositioninthedebtoftheCompanyorinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreport.MorganStanleytradesormaytradeasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatarethesubjectofthedebtresearchreport.

Certaindisclosureslistedabovearealsoforcompliancewithapplicableregulationsinnon-USjurisdictions.

STOCKRATINGS

MorganStanleyusesarelativeratingsystemusingtermssuchasOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedorUnderweight(seedefinitionsbelow).MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,holdandsell.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearch.Inaddition,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadMorganStanleyResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

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GlobalStockRatingsDistribution

(asofMay31,2024)

TheStockRatingsdescribedbelowapplytoMorganStanley'sFundamentalEquityResearchanddonotapplytoDebtResearchproducedbytheFirm.

Fordisclosurepurposesonly(inaccordancewithFINRArequirements),weincludethecategoryheadingsofBuy,Hold,andSellalongsideourratingsofOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweight.MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,hold,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Tosatisfyregulatoryrequirements,wecorrespondOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,withabuyrecommendation;wecorrespondEqual-weightandNot-RatedtoholdandUnderweighttosellrecommendations,respectively.

CoverageUniverse

InvestmentBankingClients(IBC)

OtherMaterialInvestmentServices

Clients(MISC)

StockRatingCategory

Count

%ofTotal

Count

%ofTotalIBC

%ofRatingCategory

Count

%ofTotalOtherMISC

Overweight/Buy

1455

39%

338

45%

23%

683

41%

Equal-weight/Hold

1742

46%

342

46%

20%

774

46%

Not-Rated/Hold

3

0%

0

0%

0%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

573

15%

70

9%

12%

223

13%

Total

3,773

750

1681

DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyreceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.Duetoroundingoffofdecimals,thepercentagesprovidedinthe"%oftotal"columnmaynotadduptoexactly100percent.

AnalystStockRatings

Overweight(O).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Equal-weight(E).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Not-Rated(NR).Currentlytheanalystdoesnothaveadequateconvictionaboutthestock'stotalreturnrelativetotheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Underweight(U).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinMorganStanleyResearchis12to18months.

AnalystIndustryViews

Attractive(A):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.

In-Line(I):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Cautious(C):Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthswithcautionvs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachregionareasfollows:NorthAmerica-S&P500;LatinAmerica-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCILatinAmericaIndex;Europe-MSCIEurope;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorMSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.

StockPrice,PriceTargetandRatingHistory(SeeRatingDefinitions)

MorganStanleyResearch5

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ImportantDisclosuresforMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLC&E*TRADESecuritiesLLCCustomers

ImportantdisclosuresregardingtherelationshipbetweenthecompaniesthatarethesubjectofMorganStanleyResearchandMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLCorMorganStanleyoranyoftheiraffiliates,areavailableontheMorganStanleyWealthManagementdisclosurewebsiteat/online/researchdisclosures.ForMorganStanleyspecificdisclosures,youmayreferto/researchdisclosures.

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OtherImportantDisclosures

MorganStanley&Co.InternationalPLCanditsaffiliateshaveasignificantfinancialinterestinthedebtsecuritiesofAptivPlc,AutoNationInc.,AvisBudgetGroupInc,BorgWarnerInc.,FerrariNV,FordMotorCompany,GeneralMotorsCompany,Group1Automotive,Inc,LearCorporation,LucidGroupInc,MagnaInternationalInc.,RivianAutomotive,Inc.,SonicAutomotiveInc,TeslaInc.

AmemberofResearchwhohadorcouldhavehadaccesstotheresearchpriortocompletionownssecurities(orrelatedderivatives)intheFordMotorCompany.Thispersonisnotaresearchanalystoramemberofresearchanalyst'shousehold.

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