世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望（英文）

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomists

Outlook

May2024

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Disclaimer

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2

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

May2024

Thisquarterlybriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicy

developmentresearchaswellasconsultations

andsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfrom

boththepublicandprivatesectors,organized

bytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentreforthe

NewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontours

ofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentand

identifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-

makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothe

compoundingshockstotheglobaleconomy

fromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingwas

conductedinApril2024.

3

Contents

Executivesummary

5

1.Amoodofcautiousoptimism

7

Growthisweak,butbuilding

7

Inflationiselevated,buteasing

10

2.Achallenginggloballandscape

13

Complexityisbecomingafeatureoftheglobaleconomy

13

Businessesnavigategrowingheadwinds

14

Policy-makerscalibratetheirresponses

16

3.Long-termprospects

19

Theoutlookforgrowth

19

Policypriorities

22

References

26

Contributors

29

Acknowledgements

30

Cover:Unsplash

4

Executivesummary

TheMay2024ChiefEconomistsOutlook

launchesamidamoodofcautiousoptimismabouttheglobaleconomy.Uncertainty

persists,butsignsofbrighteningare

reflectedinthelatestsurvey,withasharpfallintheshareofchiefeconomistsexpectingglobalconditionstoweakenthisyear,from56%inJanuaryto17%.

Thereisnearunanimityamongrespondents(97%)thatgeopoliticswillbeasourceof

globaleconomicvolatilityintheremainder

of2024.Withalmosthalfoftheworld’s

populationheadingtothepollsthisyear,a

largemajority(83%)alsoexpectdomestic

politicstobeasourceofvolatility.Chief

economistsaremoresanguineaboutthe

likelyshort-termimpactofrapidtechnologicaladvances,withovertwo-thirdsagainstthe

ideathatartificialintelligence(AI)willcausevolatilitythisyear.

Regionally,thechiefeconomists’growth

outlookhasbecomemoreoptimistic,

althoughitremainspatchy.ThemostnotableuptickisexpectedintheUS,withthe

shareofrespondentsexpectingmoderate

orstrongergrowthin2024risingto97%

from59%inJanuary.Thesurveypointsto

buoyantactivityintheeconomiesofAsia,

withallrespondentsexpectingatleast

moderategrowthinSouthAsiaandEastAsiaandPacific.Chinaremainsanexceptionin

Asia,withaboutthree-quartersexpectingmoderategrowth,upfrom69%inJanuary.

InEurope,theoutlookremainsbroadly

unchangedsincethepreviousedition,and

almostsevenin10stillforeseeweakgrowth

thisyear.Elsewhereintheworld,broadly

moderategrowthisexpected,withaslight

improvementsincethelastedition.

Inflationexpectationscontinuetoconverge

towardsabroadlymoderateoutlook

acrossmostregions.Thisisdriven,in

part,byoptimismabouttheconditionof

globalsupplychains,although,onthe

otherhand,expectationsforlooserlabour-

marketconditionshaveweakenedsince

January.Respondentsexpectmonetary

policytobecomelesssynchronizedoverthe

remainderof2024,withsignsoflooseningin

someregions.Thefiscalstanceisexpected

toremainunchangedinmostregions.

Thelatestsurveyfocusesonthegrowing

challengesconfrontingbusinessesand

policy-makers.Almostfour-fifths(79%)

ofchiefeconomistssaidheightened

complexityisagrowingchallengefor

decision-makers,whileevenmore(86%)

saidthesameoftensionsbetweenpolitical

andeconomicdynamics.

Whenaskedaboutthefactorsexpectedto

drivecorporatedecision-makingthisyear,

coreeconomicfactorsfeaturedprominently

inresponses,includingtheoverallhealthof

theglobaleconomy(100%),monetarypolicy

(86%),financialmarkets(86%)andlabour

5

marketconditions(79%).Astrongmajoritycitedgeopolitical(86%)anddomestic

politicalfactors(71%).Almosttwiceasmanychiefeconomists(73%)highlighttherole

ofcompanies’growthtargetsindecision-

makingcomparedtotheirenvironmentalandsocialtargets(37%).

Turningtothelonger-termprospectsfortheglobaleconomy,theresultsreveal

furtheroptimism,withalmostsevenin10respondentsexpectingglobalgrowthtoreturnto4%withinthenextfiveyears,

including42%expectingitwithinthe

nextthreeyears.Chiefeconomistsare

unambiguousinexpectingtechnologicaltransformation,AI,andthegreenand

energytransitiontobegrowthdriversinhigh-incomeeconomiesoverthenextfiveyears,withmoredividedviewsregardingtheimpactonlow-incomeeconomies.

Bycontrast,geopolitics,domesticpolitics,

debtlevels,climatechangeandsocial

polarizationareallexpectedtohavea

negativeimpactongrowthinbothhigh-and

low-incomeeconomies.

Whenaskedaboutthepoliciesthatarelikely

tobemosteffectiveatboostinggrowthin

thenextfiveyears,respondentshighlighted

innovation,infrastructuredevelopment,

educationandskillsimprovement,andlooser

monetarypolicyasthemostpromising

acrosstheboard.Inseveralotherpolicy

areas,includinginstitutions,socialservices

andaccesstofinance,anotablyhigher

shareofrespondentsseesthemaseffective

growthdriversforlow-incomerather

thanhigh-incomeeconomies.Theresults

alsoshowalackofconsensusonhow

environmentalpolicyandindustrialpolicy

mightaffectgrowth.

6

1.Amoodofcautious

optimism

Growthisweak,butbuilding

Theoutlookfortheglobaleconomy

isimproving,accordingtothelatest

WorldEconomicForumsurveyofchief

economists.WhereasintheJanuary2024edition1oftheChiefEconomistsOutlook,

56%ofrespondentssaidtheglobal

economywouldweakenthisyear,thelatest

surveyseesthatfiguredropto17%,with

morethaneightin10respondentsnow

expectingtheglobaleconomytostrengthen

orremainunchangedovertheremainderof

2024(Figure1).

Figure1.Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2024,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

MuchweakerSomewhatweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

174141

Shareofrespondents(%)

Note:Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

Thedevelopingeconomicmoodisoneofcautiousoptimism.Signsofrecoveryinthemanufacturingsector,2coupledwithimprovementsinbusinessandhouseholdconfidence,3havebolsteredtheview

thatthesharpestriskstothenear-term

outlookhavebeguntostabilize.However,

theseimprovementstakeplaceagainst

abackdropofcontinuinghighlevelsof

uncertainty,notleastbecauseofglobal

economicandgeopoliticaldivergences

andrifts.

1WorldEconomicForum(2024b,January).

2S&PGlobal(2024,April).

3WorldBank(2024b,April).

7

33859

1075924

Insuccessivesurveys,chiefeconomists

havedrawnattentiontogeopolitics,

domesticpoliticsandrapidtechnological

advancesasamongthemostconsequentialglobaldevelopmentsaffectingthe

economy.Thelatestsurveyrevealsa

furtherintensificationofconcernaround

thesetrends(Figure2).Forexample,itis

nowalmosttheunanimousview(97%)that

geopoliticalfactorswillbeasourceofglobal

economicvolatilitythisyear,upfrom90%in

September2023.

Figure2.Globalcontext

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2024,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Geopoliticalfactorswillbeasourceofvolatilityintheglobaleconomy

Domesticpoliticalfactorswillbeasourceofvolatilityintheglobaleconomy

RapiddevelopmentofAlwillbeasourceofvolatilityintheglobaleconomy

69283

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

Inayearwhenalmosthalfoftheworld’s

populationwillheadtothepolls,thechief

economistsalsohighlightthegrowing

economicimportanceofdomesticpolitical

considerations,with83%sayingthesewill

beasourceofvolatilitythisyear.Bycontrast,inartificialintelligence(AI),thereisastrongconsensusthatitwillnotbeasourceof

volatilitythisyear,and,asdiscussedlater,thechiefeconomistsalsoexpectAItobeadriverofgrowthintheglobaleconomy.

Thechiefeconomists’expectationof

overallstrongerglobalconditionsissubject

tosignificantregionalvariation.This

echoesthelatestInternationalMonetary

Fund(IMF)analysis,whichupgrades

the2024globalgrowthforecastby0.1

percentagepointto3.2%butalsopoints

towideningregionaldivergences.4

4IMF.(2024c,April).

8

352387

9829

24724

21754

36631

Figure3.Growthexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforeconomicgrowthinthefollowinggeographiesintheremainderof2024?

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

SouthAsia

UnitedStates

EastAsiaandPacific

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

CentralAsia

Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmericaandtheCarribbean

China

Europe

30637

6832

335413

29638

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

Themostnotableimprovementrecorded

inthelatestsurveyisintheoutlookforthe

US.Chiefeconomistsarealmostunanimous(97%)inexpectingatleastmoderate

growthin2024,amarkedjumpinoptimismcomparedtothe59%recordedinJanuary.Moreover,thisuptickisdrivenbyajumpin

theshareofrespondentsexpectingstrong

orverystronggrowththisyear,from3%to

45%.Thebrighteningintheoutlookisinlinewithencouragingdatareleasesintheearly

monthsof2024.5Thatsaid,renewedinflationconcerns,aswellasinterlockinggeopoliticalanddomesticpoliticalfactors,mayweighontheoutlookintheremainderof2024.

Chiefeconomistsforeseeconsistently

buoyantactivityintheeconomiesofAsia,

with100%ofrespondentsnowexpecting

moderateorstrongergrowthintheremainderof2024.ForSouthAsia,inparticular,there

wasamarkedincreaseintheshareof

respondentsexpectingstrongorverystrong

growththisyear,upto70%from52%inthe

previousedition.InEastAsiaandPacific,

theimprovementislesspronouncedandis

mostlydrivenbyanincreaseintheshareof

respondentsexpectingmoderategrowth.

ChinaremainsanexceptionamongtheAsian

economies,withonly4%ofrespondents

pointingtostronggrowthfor2024,asweak

consumptionandpropertymarketworries

weighonnear-termprospects.6

InEurope,economicactivityremains

lacklustre.Thisisthesixthconsecutive

editionoftheChiefEconomistsOutlookin

whichEuroperecordstheweakestregional

prospects.Inpart,thisreflectsmounting

short-termeconomicandgeopolitical

pressures,butitisalsoafactorofstructural

challengesthatarelikelytoweighon

theregionforyearstocome,includinga

protractedslowdowninthemanufacturing

sector,7anageingpopulationandgrowing

signsoffiscalstrain.

5OECD.(2024,May).

6IMF.(2024b,April).

7S&PGlobal.(2024,March).

9

1043435

95932

255718

32635

19

46

35

Elsewhereintheworld,theexpectationsareforbroadlymoderategrowth,withaslightincreaseinrespondents’optimismsincethelastedition.ThemostpronouncedincreasecanbeseeninCentralAsia,where91%nowexpectmoderateorhighergrowth,comparedto84%inJanuary.InLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,the

patternissimilar,withtheshareofrespondentsexpectingatleastmoderategrowth,increasingfrom70%to76%.Aboutsevenoutof10

respondentsalsoforeseemoderateorhighergrowthinSub-SaharanAfricain2024,aslightimprovementfromJanuary.

TheoutlookfortheMiddleEastandNorth

Africaremainslargelyunchangedsincethe

previousedition.Economicactivityinmuchoftheregionisbeinghitbyheadwindsrelatedtoconflict,butabouttwo-thirdsofrespondentsstillexpectatleastmoderategrowththisyear.

Inflationiselevated,buteasing

Thetrajectoryofglobalinflationhasbeenbroadlybenigninthefirsthalfof2024.

Globalheadlineinflationisnowprojectedto

settleat5.9%in2024and4.5%nextyear,

downfrom6.8%in2023.8Coreinflationis

declining,too,despitethestubbornnessof

pricerisesforcoreservices.9However,itis

worthnotingthatdespitethesedisinflationary

developments,elevatedpricelevelscontinue

toweighonhouseholds,particularlyintheUS,

whereconsumersentimentdroppedby10

pointsto67.4betweenAprilandMay2024.10

Moreover,theseglobalfiguresmaskvarying

regionalpatternsandprospects.Broadly

speaking,theadvancedeconomiesappear

tobeinabetterposition.Forexample,

inflationisontracktoreturntotargetin

2025intheUSandpossiblyeventhisyear

inEurope.11Bycontrast,manyemerging

marketanddevelopingeconomiesface

stubbornlyhighrates,averagingaprojected

8%in2024.12Similarpatternsofdivergence

arereflectedinthelatestsurveyresults

(Figure4),althoughtheexpectations

continuetoconvergetowardsmoderate

inflationacrossmostregions.

Figure4.Inflationexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforinflationinthefollowinggeographiesintheremainderof2024?

VerylowLowModerate

Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmericaandtheCarribbean

SouthAsia

UnitedStates

Europe

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

CentralAsia

EastAsiaandPacific

China

HighVeryhigh

1758214

156322

196714

4357

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024Shareofrespondents(%)

8IMF.(2024c,April).

9J.P.Morgan.(2024,February).

10UniversityofMichigan(2024,May).

11IMF.(2024c,April).

12Ibid.

10

175231

3452824

Abouttwo-thirdsofchiefeconomists

stillexpectmoderateinflationintheUS,

unchangedsinceJanuary,whereastherehasbeenanincrease(to22%)intheshareofrespondentsexpectinghighinflation.ForEurope,theoutlookisbroadlyunchangedsincethelastedition,with57%expectingmoderateinflationandaquarterexpectinglowinflationthisyear.Chinaremainsa

notableoutlierintermsofdeflationaryrisks.About81%ofrespondentsexpectloworverylowinflationthisyear,withtheshare

ofthoseexpectingverylowinflationalmostdoublingto35%sinceJanuary.

Theresultspointtoaslightincreasein

high-inflationexpectationsforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(32%)andforSouth

Asia(25%),althoughinbothregionsthe

majoritystillpointtomoderateinflation.

ForSub-SaharanAfrica,theexpectation

ofproblematicinflationisevenmore

pronounced,withalmosthalfofrespondentsexpectinghighorveryhighinflation,while

another43%foreseemoderateinflation

intheregion.Elsewhereintheworld,

expectationsoflowerinflationhavesolidifiedsomewhat.InEastAsiaandPacificandinCentralAsia,43%and32%,respectively,

nowexpectlowinflation.Inbothcases,

thismarksanincreaseofmorethan10

percentagepointssinceJanuary.

Itisworthnotingthatinflationforecasts

currentlyremainunusuallyvulnerable

torevisiongiventheprevailinglevelof

uncertaintyandtheelevatedriskofshocks.

Someofthedisruptionshighlightedin

thepreviousedition(suchasheightened

climatevolatility,theimpactofElNiñoand

commoditypressures)arealreadyhavingan

impacttoavaryingextentacrossdifferent

sectorsandgeographies.Thegeopolitical

landscapealsoremainsfebrile,and

accordingtooneestimate,anescalationof

conflictintheMiddleEastcouldcauseoil

pricestospikebyupto30%,adevelopment

thatwouldaccelerateinflationanddampen

globalgrowth.13Moregenerally,theglobal

tradingsystemremainsvulnerableto

shocks.Forexample,despiteamarked

trendtowardsdiversificationandlocalization

ofsupplychainsinrecentyears,almost

20%ofglobaltradeingoodsstillhappens

betweengeopoliticallyunalignedeconomies,

withthesharereaching40%forhighly

concentratedproducts.14

Figure5.Globalcontext

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2024,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertain

Labourmarketconditionswilllooseninmostadvancedeconomies

Globalsupplychainspressureswillbeamajorsourceofdisruptiontobusinessactivity

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

AgreeStronglyagree

Shareofrespondents(%)

13WorldBank.(2024a,April).

14McKinsey.(2024,January).

11

Despitetheprevalenceofriskstothe

globaleconomy,itisnotablethatthechiefeconomistsremainrelativelysanguineon

theconditionofglobalsupplychains,whichhavebeenakeysourceofupwardprice

pressuresinrecentyears.Onlyaquarter

ofrespondentsexpectmajordisruption

in2024,comparedto48%whodisagree

(Figure5).Ontheotherhand,labourmarket

conditionsmaycontinuetopushupon

pricesinsomepartsoftheworld.Thelatest

surveypointstoasignificantshiftinchief

economists’expectationsonlabourmarket

conditionsthisyear,withtheproportionof

respondentsexpectinglabourmarketsto

looseninadvancedeconomiesfallingsharply

frommorethanthree-quarterstoone-third

sincethelastedition.

12

1035531

10104831

17413110

2.Achallenging

globallandscape

Complexityisbecomingafeatureoftheglobaleconomy

Deepuncertaintyhascharacterizedthegloballandscapeinrecentyears,and

thereappearstobelittleprospectofanear-termreturntogreaterpredictability.Internationalconflicts,growingsocial

strains,technologicalshiftsandtight

financialconditionshaveallcontributed

toheightenedvolatilityandcontinueto

reshapepatternsofeconomicactivityin

profoundways.Thismakesforaparticularly

challengingenvironmentfordecision-makers

ingovernmentandbusiness,andalmost

eightin10chiefeconomists(79%)expect

heightenedcomplexitytobeagrowing

challengefordecision-makersas2024

progresses(Figure6).

Figure6.Growingchallenges

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2024,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Tensionsbetweenpoliticalandeconomicconsiderationswillbe

agrowingchallengeforbusinessandeconomicdecision-makers

Heightenedcomplexity(economic,political,etc.)willbea

growingchallengeforbusinessandeconomicdecision-makers

Differencesbetweeneconomicdataandsentimentwillbea

growingchallengeforbusinessandeconomicdecision-makers

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

Theincreasingpolarizationandvolatility

ofdomesticpoliticsinmanycountries

havebeenanimportantcontributortothis

complexity,andthewaveofelectionsacrosstheglobein2024intensifiesitsdestabilisingpotential.Therearealreadyindicationsthatbusinessesarehedgingagainstthepotentialforsharppolicyswingsifpowerchanges

hands.15Moreover,thisdomesticpolitical

instabilityiscompoundedbythedeterioratinginternationalpoliticalenvironment.

Accordingly,86%ofchiefeconomistssee

tensionsbetweenpoliticsandeconomicsas

agrowingchallengefordecision-makers.

Onenotablerecentdevelopmentinmany

countries–especiallytheUS–hasbeenthe

emergenceofdivergencebetweenmodestly

encouragingeconomicdataandstubbornly

gloomypublicsentiment.Coreeconomic

indicators–includinggrowth,inflation,

employmentandstockmarketperformance

15TheEconomist.(2024,January).

13

5545

145531

146224

215524

285221

18

34

39

11

3

38

34

31

10

34

28

–haveallshownsignsofimprovementsincethepandemic,buteconomicsentimenthasremainedweak.

Multiplefactorsarelikelytobedrivingthis

divergence.Thelatestchiefeconomists

surveyresultspointtoanumberofpotentialdrivers,frompricelevelsandinequality

toheighteneduncertaintyaboutpolitical,

socialandtechnologicaldevelopments.

Thisdivergencemaybeatemporary

phenomenon,withgreatertimeneededforhard-dataimprovementstobereflectedinbrighteningsentiment.However,aroundfourin10chiefeconomistsexpectthedata-

sentimentdivergencetobeachallengefor

decision-makers,withasimilarproportion

uncertainonthispoint.

Businessesnavigategrowing

headwinds

Thebackdropofgrowingcomplexityposes

numerouschallengesforbusinesses.

Whilebusinessdecisionsarelikelytovary

giventheeraofheightenedinstability,the

latestchiefeconomistssurveyprovidesan

indicationofsomeofthekeyfactorsthat

areexpectedtodrivecorporatedecision-

makingthisyear(Figure7).

Figure7.Factorsdrivingcorporatedecision-making

Whichofthefollowingfactorsarelikelytodrivecorporatedecision-makinginthe

remainderof2024?

ExtremelyunlikelySomewhatunlikelyNeitherlikelynorunlikelySomewhatlikelyExtremelylikely

Overallhealthoftheeconomy

MonetarypolicydecisionsFinancialmarketconditions

Geopoliticalfactors

LabourmarketconditionsCompanies'growthtargetsDomesticpoliticalfactors

Regulatoryenvironment

Supplychainconditions

Companies'environmentalandsocialtargets

4112561

32

24

24

343

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,April2024

Unsurprisingly,coreeconomicfactorsfeaturemostprominently.Thereisunanimityamongrespondentsontheoverallhealthofthe

globaleconomybeingadriverofdecision-

making,andtheoverwhelmingmajority

ofrespondentsalsopointedtotheroleof

monetarypoli