高盛-全球外汇-很多事情已经改变

_

24May2024|6:23PMBST

GlobalFXTrader

TheMoreThingsChange

OurthoughtsonGBP,USD,CLP,CAD,NZD,EGP,PHP&NGN

nGBP:NobigfireworksfortheFourthofJuly.WedonotexpecttheUK

generalelectiontohaveamajorinfluenceonSterlingintheshortterm.Labourleadsinthepollingaveragesbyabout20ppts,andfiscalspacewillberelativelylimitedinthenextAutumnStatement,sothespaceforpolicyuncertaintyintheneartermisrelativelylimitedaswell.And,aswehavenoted,politicalwinds

seemtofavoursomewhattightertieswiththeEuropeanUnion—instark

contrasttotheBrexitfocusofthelastfewelectioncycles—whichshouldhelp

supportthePoundonthemargin,butagainisnot“newnews”withtheelectionannouncement.Moreimportantlyintheshortterm,strongerservicesinflationinthecriticalAprilreporthadalreadyshiftedexpectationsfortheBoEcuttingcyclefirmlyintoAugust.Thisreinforcesourviewthatmonetarypolicywillatleastnotbeaheadwindforthecurrencyrightnow,andwestillthinkGBPwillbemore

sensitivetoglobalrisksentiment.BetteractivitydataacrossEuropeshouldhelp,butthecurrencyremainssensitivetotheglobalratesoutlook.Withdomestic

catalystsnowbetterdefined,firmerinflationdatashouldkeepGBPoutofthe“mostdivergent”camp(likeSEKandCAD),eventhoughcablewillnotremainunaffectedbyaDollarthatdriftsbacktothetopofitsrange.

nUSD:FromC+tocut?Notwithoutu(unemployment).Itlooksincreasingly

clearthattheFOMCisnotgoingtogetclearanceforratecutsoninflationaloneinthenearterm.Nextweek’scorePCEreportwilllikelyshowmixedprogress—GovernorWallergradedita“C+.”Instead,thefastestpathtoratecutslookslikeitwouldneedtocomeviathealternatepathChairPowellhasmentioned—an

unexpecteddeteriorationinthelabormarket.Aswehavearguedpreviously,thatpresentsanarrowpathforsubstantialDollardepreciation:theeconomywould

havetocool“justenough”tocomforttheFed,withoutcreatingmarket

discomfortwithamorepronounceddownturn.Thisweekhelpedtoreinforce

that,whiletheUSdatahavestoppedreliablybeatingexpectations,theeconomyhasnothitawall,either.Setagainstthis,itisofcoursenotablethatsentiment

KamakshyaTrivedi

+44(20)7051-4005|

kamakshya.trivedi@

GoldmanSachsInternational

MichaelCahill

+44(20)7552-8314|

michael.e.cahill@

GoldmanSachsInternational

DannySuwanapruti

+65-6889-1987|

danny.suwanapruti@

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

KarenReichgottFishman

+1(212)855-6006|

karen.fishman@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

IsabellaRosenberg

+1(212)357-7628|

isabella.rosenberg@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TeresaAlves

+44(20)7051-7566|

teresa.alves@

GoldmanSachsInternational

VictorEngel

+44(20)7051-3862|victor.engel@

GoldmanSachsInternational

LexiKanter

+1(212)855-9701|

alexandra.kanter@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

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24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

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hasimprovedinmuchoftherestoftheworldaswell,andtheFedisfarfromthe

onlycentralbankfacingasomewhatmoreuphill“lastmile”thanhadbeen

expected.Inourview,thishasseverelydiminishedthecaseformoredivergence

andbiggerFXmovesinthenearterm.Andgradual,ifdisappointing,progress

towardsbetterbalancehasunderminedthecaseforreopeningtherighttailofthepolicyratedistribution(evenrelativetotheslightlymorebalanceddiscussion

revealedintheFOMCminutes),whichcouldcausebroaderandmoredisruptive

Dollarmoves.However,evenifthistrendcontinues,wethinkitwillbedifficultfortheDollartodepreciatesubstantiallyaheadoftheUSelection,becauseportfolio

flowsareunlikelytofollowimprovinggrowthtotheextenttheymightotherwise,

whichwasalsothepatternin2016(Exhibit1).Withourstill-strongviewoftheUS

economyandapproachingelectionrisks,weexpecttheDollartomovebacktothestrongsideoftherecentrangeoverthenextfewmonths,andthinka“breakout”ismorelikelytocomeinfavorofDollarstrengthintheeventofnewinflationary

catalystssuchastariffsormorefiscalexpansion.

Exhibit1:Portfolioflowsareunlikelytofollowimprovinggrowthabroad

$bn

CumulativeCross-borderMutualFund&ETFFlowsinto:

$bn

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

200

180

USA

160

EuroareaChina

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24

Source:EPFR,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

nCLP:The‘CopperHare’pausesforair.ThepastmonthhasseenastrengtheningoftheChileanPesoextendfurther.Afterbeingoneofthelargestunderperformers

amongEMFXinQ1onthebackanaggressiveratecuttingcyclewhileitstermsoftradestayedrelativelyflat,Q2hasseenasignificantreversalaslocalandglobal

windshavechanged.AshiftintheglobalandUSratesbackdrophascausedthe

BCChtodialbackthepaceofitseasing.Whileeasinghascontinued,withthelatest50bpcutthispastweek,theMonetaryPolicyCommitteehasadoptedamoredatadependentstance.Moreimportantly,thesharpincreaseincopperprices(whileoilpriceshavebeenrangebound)havedrivenChile’stermsoftradesignificantlyhigherandtakenthePesoalong.Wehavecommentedonthesedynamicsbefore:the

ChileanPeso(orthe‘CopperHare’)hashadthemostreliableandrapidsensitivitytocopperpricesoverseveralyears,whereasthesensitivityinthePeruvianSol(orthe

y

2

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24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

‘CopperTortoise’)isdampenedgiventhemoretightlycontrollednatureofthe

currency.Giventhesharprecentrally,ourcommoditystrategistsexpectabrief

phaseofpriceconsolidation,butseefurtherupsidetowardstheiryear-endtargetoncopperto$12,000/t,givenacombinationofrestrictedsupply,betterChinademandsentiment,andincreasingfocusonthenewcopperdemandgeneratedfromAI’s

datacentreandrelatedpowerinfrastructurecapex.Inlinewiththis,weexpect

somevulnerabilityintheCLPintheshorttermespeciallyasthespreadtoUSrates

continuestonarrow,butaslongaspolicymakersmaintaintherecentmore

restrainedpaceofeasing,thePesoshouldremainconnectedwiththestructuralincreaseincopperpricesoverthemediumterm.

nCAD:CutsandDivergence.ThesummaryofdeliberationsfromthelastBoC

meetingconfirmedthatmembersofthegoverningcouncilfeltthattheyhadfulfilledthe“further”easingpartoftheirinflationgoal,andwerenowlookingfor

“sustained”easing.TheAprilinflationreportthisweek,alongsidetheMarch

inflationreport,likelyadduptothe“sustained”easingtheBoCwantstosee.As

such,theBankseemsverylikelytocutinJune.ThiswouldmaketheBoCthethirdG10centralbanktocutthisyear,behindtheSNBandRiksbank,openinguproom

forpolicydivergencefromtheFed.Divergence,however,reliesnotonlyonthe

timingofthefirstcut,butalsothepacegoingforward.MoresubstantialCAD

weaknessvsUSDrequiresmoresustainedpolicydivergence,yetCanada’sgrowthbackdrophasbeguntoimprove.ThismeansthatadditionaleasingfromtheBoC

couldarriveslowlyandcautiously,limitingthecapacityformoreprolonged

divergencebetweenthetwocentralbanks.GovernorMacklemtendstoemphasizerealizedgrowthversuspotentialasasignalofpolicyrestriction.USmonetarypolicyhasalsoworkedasa“speedlimit”thiscycle,withsomecentralbanks—likely

overly—concernedaboutdivergenceleadingtoundesirableamountsofcurrency

weakness.WethinkUSD/CADshouldmovesomewhathigherifwerealizeaJuneBoCcut,andespeciallyifthe“higher-for-longer”riskstoourFedforecast

materialize.ButwewouldcautionagainstanticipatingmuchCADweaknessbeyondournear-termforecasts,particularlyiftherecentpro-cyclicalbackdropextends.

nNZD:KeenonKiwi.TheNewZealandDollarhasbeenoneofthetop-performingG10currenciesoverrecentmonths,evenoutperformingAUDinthepastfew

weeks.WhileNZDandAUDaregenerallysimilarinnature,therearetwomain

differences:i)NZDisrelativelylesssensitivetoChinagrowthexpectations,andii)NZDcanbehighlycorrelatedwithmilkpricesasdairyproductscompriseNew

Zealand’stopexports.ThelatterhasbeenparticularlysupportiveforKiwiinrecentweekswithpricesupnearly10%thismonth,afterpeakingatover15%higherin

mid-May.ButthebiggestdriverofAUD/NZDdivergencetendstobetherelative

policyoutlook,andtheRBNZsurprisedwithhawkishguidanceatitsMay21

meeting.Thescopeforasustainedmovelowerfeelslimitedthoughwithouta

dovishoutcomeattheRBAmeetingonJune18orfurtherupsidesurprisesinNewZealandinflation(Q2tobereleasedonJuly17).TheNewZealandGovernment

BudgetonMay30couldallowforsomefurtherAUD/NZDdownsideifalarge

stimuluspushesoutratecutpricingevenmore,butasustainedmovelowerwouldlikelyrequiregreaterpolicydivergencethanweanticipate.Forthatreason,welike

y

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24Ma2024

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bothAUDandNZDonothernon-USDcrosses(e.g.,EUR,JPY)forthosewhowanttoleanintothegenerallypro-cyclical,lessdivergentmacrobackdrop—withaslightpreferenceforAUDonitsgreaterbetatoimprovingChinasentiment,whichwe

expecttoextend.

nEGP:RatingthePoundhighly.TheEgyptianPoundstillscreensasoneofourtop

picksinFrontierFX.Astrongoutlookforcapitalflowskeepssupportingthecurrency,whichmostprominentlyincludesanincreaseintreasuryreceiptsfromtheUAE’s

investmentintheRaselHekmaproject.OurtraderecommendationtogolongthePoundagainsttheDollarhasbenefitedfromthecarry,butalsofromsomedegreeofspotappreciationthankstostronginternationaldemandforlocalT-billsfollowingtheMarchdevaluationandtheflurryofpositivenewsoninflows(Exhibit2).Despiteoureconomists’outlookforlowerrates,wethinktheirexpectationoffurtherdisinflation—drivenbyaneasingofsupply-sidepressuresandastrengtheningoftheparallel

marketFXrate(Exhibit2)—andthecentralbank’sdecisiontoleaveratesonhold

yesterdayshouldkeeprealmarketyieldssupported.Tobeclear,wedon’tthink

yesterday’sdecisionwillhavesignificantimplicationsformarketrates,whichare

ultimatelythemaindriversofportfolioinflowsintotheFrontierlocaltradeinour

view,mainlybecauseofaweakmonetarytransmissionmechanism.Rather,weseethedecisionaspositiveforthelocaltradeasitsignalsacautiousstanceandlimitssurprisestoportfolioinvestors.FollowingtheincreaseinEGPFXtotalreturnssinceweinitiatedourshortUSD/EGPtraderecommendation,wehaveextendedthetotalreturntargetfrom+8%to+10%,andtightenedthestopfrom+1%to+5%to

protectgains.

nPHP:DovishBSPpromptsPHPweakness.ThePhilippinesPesohasbeenamongtheworst-performingEMcurrenciesinMay,withUSD/PHPbreakinghigherabove58.0forthefirsttimesinceOctober2022,whichwaswhentheBSPappearedto

havebeendefending59.0rigorously,andultimatelyrespondedwithlargerthan

usual75bpshikeinNovember2022,andatotalof225bpsworthofhikes(betweenNovember2022andOctober2023)untilthepeakofthecycle.ThecurrentboutofweaknessisafunctionofpolicymakerdovishnesswhichappearsincreasinglyoutofstepwiththeUSratebackdrop.WhereastheBSPkeptpolicyratesunchangedatits16thMaymeeting,intheQ&Asession,theGovernornotedthatmonetarypolicy

easingcouldcomeassoonastheAugustmeeting.Helaterfurthercommented

that:“Wedon’tcaremuchwhentheFedcutsrates.Wecaremoreaboutourdata.”TheGovernoraddedthattheBSPislikelytocutinterestratesby25bpor50bpsthisyearandwillstartdiscussingfurtherreserverequirementratio(RRR)cutsafter

easingmonetarypolicy.Whiledomesticdatamaywellbesupportive–headlineinflationhaseasedfromapeakofalmost9%inearly2023to3%earlythisyear,

beforereboundingslightlyto3.8%inApril,andisnownearthetopendoftheBSP’s2-4%inflationtargetrangefor2023-2024–thesecommentsappearedatthetime

whenthemarkethasbeenpushingbackFedratecutexpectations.TheriskisthatanearlierBSPcutinQ3,evenifitisjustifiedbydomesticdata,furthererodes

supportforthecurrency,especiallyastheUSDstaysfirmlyinlinewithwhatwe

haveseenoverthepastweek.TheBSP’sFXreservesareatUSD103bnasofApril,whichishigherthanthelowofUSD93bninSeptember2022,butbelowthepeak

y

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ofUSD110ninearly2011.Onbalance,wethinkthereisonlymodestroomfortheBSPtomanagecurrencyweaknessusingFXreserves.CoupledwithexpectationsthattheGovernorwilllikelycutrates,wethinkthePHPoutlookremainsnegativeandthecurrencyislikelytounderperformNJApeers.

nNGN:Stillwaitingforarealincrease.TheNigerianNairahasexperiencedsomewhatofaroundtripsincemid-March,appreciatingbyabout30%untilmid-April,beforereversingmostofitsspotgainsinMaydespitereportsof

intervention,andreturningUSDNGNtothe1,500area,onthebackofacombinationofadeclineinFXreservesandportfoliooutflows.Inresponse,thisweektheCentral

BankofNigeria(CBN)hikedthepolicyrate,surprisingconsensustotheupside.Weinterpretthehawkishdecisionasyetanothersignalofauthorities’willingnessto

restoremonetarypolicyorthodoxyandkeepthepositivereformmomentumon

track;butevensoitfallsshortofaddressingthefundamentalissueofaweak

monetarytransmissionmechanismandmarketratesbeingtoolow.TheCBNhas

beenabsorbingNairaliquiditywithopenmarketoperationratherthanbysettingthepolicyrate,buttheone-yearT-billnominalyieldshavefailedtoincreasemeaningfullyabovethe25%markoverthepastfewmonthswhileone-yearaheadinflation

expectationshaveremainedelevated.ThishasleftexanterealratesonlymarginallypositiveandmostimportantlybelowtheEMandFrontiermedian(Exhibit3).We

viewthisasoneofthemainobstaclestodurableportfolioinflowsinthelocaltrade,especiallygiventhelatesthawkishdevelopmentsintheDMratesmarkets.The

750bpofcumulativehikesyear-to-dateareasignthatpolicymakersarestillkeentoremainonthepathtowardsstabilisingFXandinflation,buttherecentupside

surprisetoAprilinflationandthepass-throughofNairaweaknesswillkeeptestingtheirabilitytoremainonthatpath.Inlightofthis,wereiterateourUSDNGN

forecastsat1,400/1,300/1,200in3/6/12monthsontheexpectationthatthecurrentpolicymomentumshouldleadtoonlyagradualstrengtheningofthecurrencyratherthanthefront-loadedmovewesawearlierintheyear.

Exhibit2:TheEGPofficialandparallelexchangerateshavebothstrengthenedshortlyaftertheMarchdevaluation,whichhas

closedthegapbetweenthetwoFXrates

Exhibit3:Nigeria’sexanterealratesareonlymarginallypositive,andbelowtheEM&Frontiermedian

USD/EGP

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

Jan-24

OfficialUSD/EGP

Forwards

ADR-impliedUSD/EGP

Mar-24

Jul-24

May-24

USD/EGP

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

Sep-24

exanterealrate(%)

exanterealrate(%)

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

EM&FrontierInterquartileRange

EM&FrontierMedian

-10

Nigeria

-15

-15

'15'16'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

EM:BRL,CLP,CNY,COP,CZK,HUF,IDR,ILS,INR,KRW,MXN,MYR,PEN,PHP,PLN,THB,TWD

andZAR.Frontier:ARS,CRC,DOP,EGP,KZT,SAR,TRY,UAHandUYU.Exanterealratesare

overnightinterbankrates(whereavailable)deflatedbyone-year-aheadinflationexpectations.ForNigeria,weuseone-yearinterbanktreasurybillstrueyields(NITTY).

Source:Bloomberg,ConsensusEconomics,HaverAnalytics,IMF,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

24May20245

_

GoldmanSachs

GlobalFXTrader

GlobalFXForecasts

G10

EUR/$

£/$

AUD/$

NZD/$

$/CAD

$/CHF

$/NOK

$/SEK

$/JPY

EMEA

$/CZK

$/HUF

$/PLN

$/RON

$/RUB

$/UAH

$/TRY

$/ILS

$/ZAR

$/NGN

Americas$/ARS

$/BRL

$/MXN

$/CLP

$/PEN

$/COP

Asia

$/CNY

$/HKD

$/INR

$/KRW

$/MYR

$/SGD

$/TWD

$/THB

$/IDR

$/PHP

CurrentSpot

1.08

1.27

0.66

0.61

1.37

0.91

10.68

10.73

157

22.9

357

3.94

4.60

95.47

39.9

32.19

3.68

18.48

1444

8905.1416.729103.74

3867

7.24

7.81

83.28

1362

4.70

1.35

32.2

36.53

15993

58.14

EuroCrosses

EUR/GBP

EUR/CHF

EUR/NOK

EUR/SEK

EUR/CZK

EUR/HUF

EUR/PLN

EUR/RON

EUR/RUB

0.85

0.99

11.55

11.61

24.73

386

4.26

4.98

103.3

3-MonthHorizon

Forward

1.09

1.27

0.66

0.61

1.37

0.90

10.65

10.69

155

22.8

358

3.95

4.61

95.47

41.6

35.05

3.67

18.62

1520

992

5.19

16.97

910

3.74

3926

7.25

7.79

83.56

1355

4.68

1.35

32.1

36.42

16119

58.19

0.85

0.98

11.57

11.60

24.80

389

4.29

5.00

103.7

Forecast

1.05

1.24

0.63

0.58

1.40

0.92

11.43

11.33

155

24.03714.004.7198.036.034.03.7018.00

1400

8505.1017.009403.75

3850

7.30

7.80

84.00

1400

4.85

1.38

33.0

37.50

16400

58.00

0.85

0.97

12.00

11.90

25.25

390

4.20

4.95

102.9

6-MonthHorizon

Forward

1.09

1.27

0.66

0.61

1.37

0.90

10.63

10.63

153

22.8

359

3.95

4.61

99.20

43.1

38.56

3.65

18.76

1546

1121

5.24

17.21

910

3.74

3978

7.23

7.78

83.89

1348

4.65

1.34

31.9

36.20

16164

58.25

0.86

0.98

11.60

11.60

24.86

392

4.31

5.03

108.2

Forecast

1.05

1.24

0.65

0.60

1.38

0.93

11.24

11.14

155

24.33764.054.71105.040.036.03.6017.50

1300

9005.0017.009203.70

3800

7.25

7.80

83.50

1370

4.80

1.36

32.5

37.00

16000

57.00

0.85

0.98

11.80

11.70

25.50

395

4.25

4.95

110.3

12-MonthHorizon

Forward

1.10

1.27

0.67

0.61

1.36

0.88

10.59

10.53

149

22.7

361

3.97

4.62

106.00

46.2

45.48

3.62

19.05

1620

1393

5.34

17.68

911

3.74

4069

7.17

7.76

84.67

1335

4.61

1.33

31.4

35.69

16276

58.37

0.86

0.97

11.66

11.59

24.93

397

4.37

5.08

116.7

Forecast

1.08

1.28

0.67

0.62

1.36

0.92

10.74

10.65

150

23.83703.984.63110.042.039.03.5517.25

1200

10004.9017.258803.65

3750

7.20

7.80

82.50

1320

4.70

1.32

31.5

36.00

15800

56.00

0.84

0.99

11.60

11.50

25.75

400

4.30

5.00

118.8

Longer-termForecasts(eop)

2025

1.15

1.35

0.75

0.67

1.30

0.84

9.22

9.13

130

22.4

348

3.78

4.39

110.0

42.0

40.00

3.50

17.00

800

1100

4.55

17.50

825

3.65

3700

7.00

7.80

81.00

1200

4.40

1.27

30.0

33.00

14800

55.00

0.85

0.97

10.60

10.50

25.75

400

4.35

5.05

126.5

2026

1.15

1.35

0.80

0.67

1.25

0.86

8.70

8.70

125

22.6

352

3.83

4.43

110.0

44.0

44.00

3.45

16.00

900

1600

4.50

17.75

800

3.60

3700

6.90

7.80

80.50

1200

4.30

1.25

30.0

32.00

14500

55.00

0.85

0.99

10.00

10.00

26.00

405

4.40

5.10

126.5

2027

1.151.350.850.671.200.878.268.26

120

22.6

357

3.87

4.43

110.0

45.0

48.00

3.40

15.00

1000

21004.4518.007753.55

3650

6.80

7.80

80.00

1200

4.20

1.23

29.0

32.00

14000

55.00

0.85

1.00

9.50

9.50

26.00

410

4.45

5.10

126.5

Note:SpotvaluesareasofThursday'sclose.

Seedynamictablehere(orclickimageabove):

/content/themes/fx-forecasts.html

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

24May20246

_

SpotCarryTotalNEER

24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

GlobalFXTrader

ReturnForecasts&Valuations

G10

EUR/$

GBP/$

AUD/$

NZD/$

$/CAD

$/CHF

$/NOK

$/SEK

$/JPY

EMEA

$/CZK

$/HUF

$/PLN

$/RON

$/RUB

$/UAH

$/TRY

$/ILS

$/ZAR

$/NGN

Americas$/ARS

$/BRL

$/MXN

$/CLP

$/PEN

$/COP

Asia

$/CNY

$/HKD

$/INR

$/KRW

$/MYR

$/SGD

$/TWD

$/THB

$/IDR

$/PHP

CurrentSpot

1.08

1.27

0.66

0.61

1.37

0.91

10.68

10.73

156.93

22.86

357.07

3.94

4.60

95.47

39.93

32.19

3.68

18.48

1444

890.28

5.14

16.72

910

3.74

3867

7.24

7.81

83.28

1362

4.70

1.35

32.2

36.53

15993

58.14

EuroCrosses

EUR/GBP

EUR/CHF

EUR/NOK

EUR/SEK

EUR/CZK

EUR/HUF

EUR/PLN

EUR/RON

EUR/RUB

AddendumUSD

0.85

0.99

11.55

11.61

24.73

386

4.26

4.98

103.3

--

GSFEER

GSDEER

Misalignment

Misalignment

Forecast:12-MonthReturn(%)

EstimateBilateral

Trade-

Weighted

EstimateBilateral

Trade-Weighted

-0.1

0.8

1.4

1.7

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.8

4.6

-4.1

-3.6

-1.0

-0.6

-13.2

-4.9

-17.5

3.7

7.1

20

-11.0

5.0

-3.1

3.4

2.4

3.1

0.6

0.1

0.9

3.2

0.1

2.4

2.3

1.5

1.2

3.8

0.9

-0.1

-0.5

1.0

-4.0

-3.5

-0.8

-0.5

-13.1

-0.2

-1.7

-0.2

-0.8

0.1

-0.8

-4.0

-0.8

-1.9

-5.1

-0.9

1.1

0.6

0.4

11.0

15.8

41.3

-1.6

3.1

12

56.4

3.7

5.8

0.2

0.1

5.2

-1.1

-0.7

1.7

-2.0

-2.1

-1.7

-2.6

-2.3

1.8

0.4

1.5

-2.2

0.9

-0.1

0.8

2.8

2.4

2.1

12.8

-1.4

-1.9

0.6

0.6

1.7

0.2

-4.2

-1.4

-1.1

-0.7

-5.0

-2.5

-0.3

-0.3

-3.6

10.8

16.6

2.1

10.4

33

45.5

8.9

2.5

3.5

2.5

8.5

-0.5

-0.5

2.6

1.1

-2.0

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

3.0

4.2

2.5

-2.4

0.5

0.8

-3.2

-0.6

1.5

1.6

-0.3

-1.4

0.8

2.1

-0.4

0.7

0.1

-0.8

0.1

1.3

3.5

-3.6

-2.7

0.0

--

-13.7

--

-16.2

5.1

5.1

--

-12.3

5.4

-3.5

1.8

2.2

2.3

-0.2

-0.6

1.3

1.7

-1.3

1.4

1.1

-0.5

-0.1

1.7

2.1

-0.8

0.1

1.3

-3.6

-2.7

0.0

--

-13.7

0.0

1.19

1.26

0.85

0.64

1.22

0.88

6.52

7.45

93

24.8

326

3.93

--

68.31

--

19.44

3.49

12.94

--

--

4.09

18.96

666

3.15

3377

5.38

7.19

77.35

1195

3.44

1.37

26.8

31.20

13934

58.46

0.95

1.05

7.78

8.90

29.62

390

4.70

--

81.6

--

-9%

1%

-22%

-4%

-11%

-4%

-39%

-31%

-41%

8%

-9%

0%

--

-28%

--

-40%

-5%

-30%

--

--

-20%

13%

-27%

-16%

-13%

-26%

-8%

-7%

-12%

-27%

1%

-17%

-15%

-13%

1%

11%

6%

-33%

-23%

20%

1%

10%

--

-21%

--

6%

18%

-4%

15%

-6%

7%

-29%

-20%

-31%

23%

4%

14%

--

-11%

--

-32%

8%

-21%

--

--

-7%

21%

-14%

-3%

-1%

-12%

13%

5%

6%

-12%

20%

3%

4%

5%

23%

18%

7%

-29%

-20%

23%

4%

14%

--

-11%

16%

1.23

1.38

0.80

0.72

1.27

0.78

7.39

8.64

111

20.3

332

3.6

--

72.97

--

26.86

3.12

15.8

--

--

4.48

17.94

826

3.49

4145

6.42

7.41

75.72

1216

4.32

1.37

26.1

32.63

13359

56.02

0.90

0.97

9.10

10.65

24.99

409

4.5

--

89.9

--

-12%

-8%

-18%

-15%

-8%

-14%

-31%

-20%

-29%

-11%

-7%

-8%

--

-24%

--

-17%

-15%

-15%

--

--

-13%

7%

-9%

-7%

7%

-11%

-5%

-9%

-11%

-8%

1%

-19%

-11%

-16%

-4%

5%

-2%

-21%

-8%

1%

6%

5%

--

-13%

--

-1%4%-7%-6%-4%-3%-26%-7%-23%

-1%5%3%

--

-11%

--

-5%-8%-3%

--

--

-3%10%-3%3%15%

2%7%3%1%3%14%-9%2%-6%11%

4%-3%-26%-7%-1%5%3%

--

-11%

11%

AverageEstimate

1.21

1.31

0.83

0.67

1.24

0.84

6.86

7.93

100

23.0

329

3.81

--

70.18

--

22.40

3.34

14.07

--

--

4.25

18.55

730

3.29

3685

5.80

7.28

76.70

1203

3.79

1.37

26.6

31.77

13704

57.48

0.93

1.01

8.31

9.60

27.77

397

4.60

--

84.9

--

PPP*

1.42

1.47

0.65

0.68

1.22

1.00

12.09

8.82

91

18.1

250

2.71

--

51.22

--

15.29

4.41

16.88

--

--

5.68

18.57

805

4.34

3450

7.12

5.96

67.89

925

2.38

0.71

14.6

22.12

11074

52.48

0.97

1.43

17.20

12.55

25.80

356

3.85

--

--

--

Note:USDreturnsaverageofallothercurrencies(exceptARS,NGNandUAH)withoppositesign;*EMestimatesadjustedforpercapitaincome.SpotvaluesasofThursday.

Seedynamictablehere(orclickimageabove):

/content/themes/table.html?criteriaKey=1k2HGqqS2h

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

y

7

_

GlobalFXTrader

GoldmanSachs

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,KamakshyaTrivedi,MichaelCahill,DannySuwanapruti,KarenReichgottFishman,IsabellaRosenberg,TeresaAlves,VictorEngelandLexiKanter,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

Additionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsothert