UBS Economics-China Economic Perspectives -Stronger trade growth in April -此为英文文档

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GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab9May2024

ChinaEconomicPerspectives

StrongertradegrowthinApril

Robustsequentialmomentumdroveexportbacktoy/ygrowth

Exportsswungbackto1.5%y/ygrowthinAprilafterswingingdownto7.5%y/ycontractioninMarch,largelyinlinewiththeBloombergconsensusexpectation.Afteradjustingforseasonalityandkeylunarcalendarholidays,ourestimationsuggestsexportlevelhascontinuedtoexpandby1.5%m/m,helpingtoovercomethestillhighbasetoyieldthey/ygrowth.The3m/3mexportmomentumaccelerated.Taking2019asbase,theaverageannualexportgrowthalsopickedupinApril.

Shipmenttomajordestinationsmostlyimproved,ASEANoutperformed

ShipmentstotheG3(theUS,theEU&Japan)registeredmuchnarrowery/ycontractionat2.9%,vs.priorcontractionof10.4%.ShipmentstotheUSonlyregistereda0.2%y/ycontractioninthemonthdespitethestillhighbase.ExportgrowthtoASEANeconomicsoutperformedagain,withy/yshipmentgrowthacceleratingto11.1%y/yfrom2.4%.ASEANistheonlymajorexportdestinationthatregisteredy/ygrowthforallmonthsin2024sofar.ExporttootherEMeconomiesmostlysawnarrowery/yexportcontraction.

Smallerdragfromconsumerexports,ITexportgrowthacceleratedfurther

Exportsofconsumergoodsdisplayedmuchnarrowery/ycontractionat3.5%inAprilafterfallingto17.2%y/ycontractioninMarch,thankstothehelpfromaslightlysmallerdragfromstatisticalbaseandsequentialshipmentimprovement.ShipmentgrowthoftheITbasketacceleratedto11.4%y/yinAprilvs.7.4%y/yinMarch,withshipmentgrowthaccelerationsacrosskeyITproductsfromPCs,mobilephonestoICs,suchisconsistentwithotherdatapointssuggestingtechrelatedexportcontinueditsupcycle.

CommoditiesandITcomponentsofferedthepushtooverallimports

Importsofkeycommoditiesbasketimprovedto9.9%growth,from1.4%y/ycontractioninMarch.Crudeoilimportacceleratedsignificantly,importgrowthofironorealsopickedup,thatofcopperoremoderatedbutremaining13.8%y/y.Consistentwiththecontinuingimprovementoftechexportcycle,importsofITcomponentsacceleratedfurtherto16.4%y/y,contributing2.4ppttooverallimportgrowthinApril(vs.0.3pptinMarch).

Steadyrecovery,exportshallremaininy/ygrowthforthecomingmonths

Tradegrowthdatafromneighbouringeconomiescontinuedtosuggeststeadymomentumofexternaldemand.Ontheotherhand,surveydatashowsamixedpictureofneworders.Inourview,currentdatacombinationsuggeststhattheexternaldemandrecoveryhascontinuedforChinainto2Q24withsteadysequentialmomentum,thoughthereisstilllimitedevidencetosuggestaboomforexportdemand.Giventhestatisticalbaseisturninglowerforthecomingmonths,thesteadysequentialmomentumshallsupportexporttostayiny/ygrowthinthecomingmonths.Giventhecontinuingrecovery,werecentlyrevisedupfullyearexportgrowthprojectionto3.5%y/y.

MildCNYdepreciation,softerFXreservebalanceamidststrongUSD

TheCNYregisteredmilddepreciationvs.theUSDoverallApril,againstthebackdropofstrongerUSDDXYincex.Lookingahead,depreciationpressureofCNYmaypersistintheneartermasmarketscontinuetoadjustfordynamicsoftheinterestratedifferentials,USDyieldsandUSDindex.Thatsaid,wealsomaintainourexpectationthatthePBCwillusevarioustoolstopreventfurtherCNYweaknessmuchbeyond7.3.ConsideringexpectationsforFedinterestratein4Q,weprojectCNYtoappreciateto7.1-7.2byyear-end.

Economics

China

WilliamDeng

Economist

william-w.deng@+852-29716765

JenniferZhong

Economist S1460516050002jennifer-a.zhong@+86-105-8328324

GraceWang

Associate S1460122080006grace-zc.wang@+86-105-8328335

TaoWang

Economist

wang.tao@+852-29717525

NingZhang

Economist

ning.zhang@+852-29718135

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLimited.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage6.

ChinaEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab3

Figure3:Exportgrowthtomajordestinationsmostlyimproved,thattoASEANcontinuedtooutperform

Source:CEIC,UBS

Figure4:Consumergoodsshipmentsawmuchnarrowery/ycontraction,ITexportacceleratedfurther

Source:CEIC,UBS

Muchnarrowercontractionfromconsumergoodsshipment,ITexports

remainedontheupcycle

Exportsofconsumergoodsdisplayedmuchnarrowery/ycontractionat3.5%inApril

afterfallingto17.2%y/ycontractioninMarchfrom20.3%y/ygrowthinJan-Feb.Within

theconsumerbasket,footweardisplayedsharpesty/ycontractionat14.9%.Onthe

otherhand,thatoffurnituremanagedtoreturntoy/ygrowth,by8.6%y/y.

Exportgrowthofautosandautopartspickedupagainto14.5%from11.8%.

Shipmentrevenueofautosremainedunchangedat28.9%y/y,thatofautopartssaw

mildery/ycontractionat-1.1%y/yfrom-4.3%y/yinMarch.

Exportingrevenuegrowthofmobilephoneimprovedto7.7%y/y,withnarrowervolume

contractionandsteadypricegrowth.Exportsofcomputersacceleratedfurtherto

9.0%y/yfrom6.2%y/yinMarch,thatofICsimprovedtoo.ExportsofcomputersandICs

bothmanagedtorecordy/ygrowthinallmonthsin2024sofar.Shipmentgrowthofthe

ITbasketacceleratedto11.4%y/yinAprilvs.7.4%y/yinMarch.Thisisconsistentwith

otherdatapointssuggestingtechrelatedexportcontinueditsupcycle.

Figure5:Importsofkeycommoditiesimprovedtosupportoverallimportgrowthacceleration

Source:CEIC,UBS

Figure6:ImportofITcomponentsandADPsofferedextrapush

Source:CEIC,UBS

ChinaEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab4

CommoditiesandITcomponentsofferedpushtooverallimports

Importsofkeycommoditiesbasketimprovedto9.9%growth,from1.4%y/y

contractioninMarch.Thecommoditiesbasketcontributed3.0ppttooverallimport

growthinAprilvs.0.4pptdraginMarch.Withintheenergyspace,crudeoilimport

jumpedbackto15.3%y/ygrowthfroma3.0%contractioninMarch,withaccelerations

inbothvolumegrowthandpriceincreases.Importsofcoalregisterednarrowery/y

contraction.Ontheotherhand,importgrowthofnaturalgasmoderatedto2.6%y/y

from7.0%y/y,asnarrowerpricecontractioncouldnotfullyoffsetslowervolume

growth.

Inthenon-energyspace,importsofcoppermoderatedfrom15.3%y/ygrowthin

March,buttoastillresilientgrowthof13.8%y/ygrowthinApril.Importvolumegrowth

stayedabove10%despitesomemoderationandimportpricerecordedmildgrowth.

Importgrowthofironoreimprovedto7.5%y/yvs.priorof5.6%,withsignificant

accelerationofvolumegrowthoffsettingy/ypricecontraction.

ImportsofITcomponentsacceleratedfurtherto16.4%y/yinAprilvs.priorgrowthof

2.2%y/y.ITcomponentscontributedto2.4ppttoimportgrowthinApril(vs.0.3pptin

March).ImportsofITcomponentshavebeeniny/ygrowthforallmonthsin2024,

consistentwiththeimprovementinITexportgrowthandglobaltechcycle.Importsof

automaticdataprocessingmachinesacceleratedto52%y/ygrowth,from28%y/yin

March,suchrapidgrowthcouldbereflectingintakesofGenerativeArtificialIntelligence

relatedcomputers.

Amongimports,processingimportsacceleratedto17.3%y/y(vs6.8%inMarch),

suggestingexternaldemandimprovementpartlyattributedtoheadlineimportgrowth

rebound.Ordinaryimportsturnedtoapositivegrowthof4.1%y/yinAprilfrom-6.3%

previously.Itmayreflectsomeimprovementindomesticdemand,thoughbaseeffect

alsocontributedtotheimprovement.

Steadyrecovery,exportstoremainy/ygrowthinthecomingmonths

Tradegrowthdatafromneighbouringeconomiescontinuedtosuggeststeady

momentumofexternaldemand.Forexample,Korearegisteredanaccelerationofy/y

exportgrowthandsequentialshipmentmomentum(3m/3m)inApril,similarlyfor

Vietnamafteradjustingforworkingdays.

Surveydatadisplayedamixedpictureforneworders.TheUSISMmanufacturingimport

orderindexmoderatedoverApril,thoughstayingwithinthesequentialzoneat51.9.

DMnewordersindexmoderatedbutEMnewexportorderspickedup.Theofficial

ChinaNBSPMIneworderssoftenedbutthatfromCaixinPMIimproved,thoughboth

stayinginthesequentialexpansionzone.

Inourview,currentdatacombinationsuggeststhattheexternaldemandrecoveryhas

continuedforChinainto2Q24withsteadysequentialmomentum,thoughthereisstill

limitedevidencetosuggestaboomforexportdemand.Giventhestatisticalbaseis

turninglowerforthecomingmonths,suchsteadymomentumshouldhelptheheadline

exporttostayiny/ygrowthinthecomingmonths.Giventhecontinuingrecovery,we

recentlyrevisedupfullyearexportgrowthprojectionto3.5%y/yvs.priorprojectionof

1.2%and2023contractionof5.0%.

Figure7:Surveydatastillshowsamixedpictureinorders

Figure8:CNYregisteredmilddepreciationagainsttheUSDoverAprilamidstUSDstrength

ChinaEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab5

Source:Haver,UBS

Source:CEIC,UBS

MildCNYdepreciation,softerFXreservebalanceamidstUSDstrength

CNYdepreciatedbyanother0.3%vs.theUSDoverApril,againstthebackdropof

furtherstrengthofUSDDXYindex.Ontheotherhand,theCNYappreciatedagainstthe

CFETsbasketovertheperiod.WiththeUSDDXYsofteninginrecentdaysinMay,the

CNYalsomanagedtoappreciateslightlyagainsttheUSD.

Lookingahead,thedepreciationpressureofCNYmaypersistintheneartermas

marketscontinuetoadjustfordynamicsoftheinterestratedifferentials,USDyieldsand

USDindex.Ontheotherhand,wemaintainourexpectationthatthePBCwilluse

varioustools(includingreintroducingcounter-cyclicalfactorindailyfixing)toprevent

furtherCNYweaknessmuchbeyond7.3.Consideringthecurrentexpectationthatthe

USratecuttakingplacein4Q,weprojecttheCNYtoappreciatetotherangebetween

7.1-7.2byyear-end.

FXreservesdroppedbyUSD44.8bntoUSD3.2trninAprilvs.March.Weestimatethe

valuationeffectfrommajorreservecurrencies'movementhasbeenalossof19bn.

Globalfinancialmarketfluctuationsmighthavebroughtadditionalvaluationlosses.

Capitaloutflowpressuremighthavepersistedovertheperiod.Ontheotherhand,

wideningtradebalancefromMarchtoAprilshouldhaveofferedsomesupportsto

reservebalance.

ChinaEconomicPerspectives9May2024ab6

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