Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know - May-此为英文文档

Distributedon:12/05/202423:52:07GMT

Date

13May2024

DeutscheBank

Research

Asia

China

India

Philippines

Economics

AsiaWeekAhead

Whatyouneedtoknow:13-17May

Weekahead

ChinaeconomicrecoveryislikelytobelargelyresilientinApril,assuggestedbyPMIreadingsandsomehigh-frequencydata.Industrialproductionisexpectedtoimproveslightlyto4.6%yoyfrom4.5%andfixedassetinvestmenttostayat4.5%.Retailsalesislikelytoimprovemoresignificantlyby0.4pptto3.5%yoy,supportedbytheQingmingHolidayactivities.WethinkPBOCwillholdMLFrateunchangedat2.5%foranothermonth,butweareaddinga25bpRRRcutforecastforMaytoinjectliquiditytoaccommodatetheincreaseingovernmentbondissuance.

WeareforecastingIndia’sAprilCPIinflationat5.0%yoy,slightlyhigherthanthe4.85%inMarchwiththeimpactofthefuelpricecutbehindus.Food&beveragespricesmomentumislikelytobearound+1.1%mom(8.4%yoy)inAprilvs.+0.16%mom(7.7%yoy)inMarch,whilecoreinflation(CPIexfoodandfuel)islikelytorise+0.33%mom(3.0%yoy)inAprilvs.+0.21%mom(3.31%yoy)inMarch.WeareforecastingApriltradedeficittobearoundUSD16.9bn,higherthantheUSD15.6bnoutturninMarch.Weexpectexportsandimportstorise4.6%yoyand8.2%yoyrespectively.InFY25,weexpectthecurrentaccountdeficittorisetoUSD35bn(0.9%ofGDP),from0.6%ofGDP(USD23bn),whichislikelytoresultinaBOPsurplusofaboutUSD55bn.

BSPislikelytokeepitspolicyunchanged,asinflationarypressureremainscontained(at3.8%inApril),whilegrowthroseto5.7%inQ1from5.5%inQ4,consistentwithourforecast.Thegovernmentexpectstheeconomytoexpandatleast6%thisyear,evenifratesremainhighforlonger.BSPwillremaincautiousaboutratecuts,waitingfortheFedinstead,althoughratehikeslookunlikely,barringsevereidiosyncraticpressureonthepeso.

Financialconditionindicators(FCIs)

AdvancedAsianeconomies'financialconditionshaveeasedacrosstheboard.HongKongFCIshaveextendedtheireasing,aftergainingaconsiderableimprovementinthepastmonth,largelyledbythereboundingstockmarket.Singapore,SouthKoreaandTaiwan'sFCIshavealsoimproved.

Weekinreview

ChinatourismactivitiescontinuedtoimproveduringLaborDayholiday,withvisitorsup7.6%andspendingup12.7%,respectively,fromthesameperiodlastyear.Butaveragespendingperpersonisstilllowerthanthe2019level.Wethinkthis

JulianaLee

ChiefEconomist

+65-6423-5203

KaushikDas

ChiefEconomist

+91-22-71804909

YiXiong,Ph.D.

ChiefEconomist

+852-22036139

DeyunOu

ResearchAssociate

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.

13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

AdvancedAsia–financialconditions

Figure1:AdvancedAsiaFCIs

TA

SK

SG

HK

SD

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

2021222324

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

Figure3:HongKongFCI

SD1.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0

-2.5

marketsbanking

externalFCI

Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

Figure5:SouthKoreaFCI

SDmarketsbanking

1.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5

-2.0

externalFCI

Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

Figure2:AdvancedAsiaFCIchanges

1W1M3M

SD

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

HKSGSKTA

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

Figure4:SingaporeFCI

SDmarketsbanking

1.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5

-2.0

externalFCI

Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

Figure6:TaiwanFCI

SDmarketsbanking

1.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5

-2.0

externalFCI

Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24

Source:CEIC,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

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13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

Page4DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

Figure7:Economicdiary

Country

Release

Period

DBExpected

Consensus

Actual

Previous

Monday,May6

GDP

Indonesia

Q1

5.1%

5.1%

5.1%

5.1%

Tuesday,May7

CPI

Taiwan

Apr-YoY

2.3%

2.1%

2.0%

2.1%

Wednesday,May8

Taiwan

Exports

Apr-YoY

16.3%

7.4%

4.3%

18.9%

Taiwan

Imports

Apr-YoY

18.8%

7.7%

6.6%

7.1%

Taiwan

Tradebalance

April

USD7.2bn

USD8.0bn

USD6.5bn

USD8.7bn

Thursday,May9

GDP

Phillipines

Q1

5.8%

5.9%

5.7%

5.5%

EventsandMeeting:BNMOvernightRate

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

Friday,May10

ChinaExports

Apr-YoY

4.0%

1.3%

1.5%

-7.5%

ChinaImports

Apr-YoY

3.0%

4.7%

8.4%

-1.9%

ChinaTradebalance

April

USD91.8bn

USD81.0bn

USD72.4bn

USD58.6bn

MalaysiaIndustrialProduction

Mar-YoY

0.5%

1.9%

3.1%

IndiaIndustrialProduction

Mar-YoY

7.0%

5.2%

5.7%

Saturday,May11

ChinaCPI

Apr-YoY

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

ChinaPPI

Apr-YoY

-2.5%

-2.3%

-2.8%

Monday,May13

China

M2Growth

Apr-YoY

8.5%

8.3%

8.3%

CPI

India

Apr-YoY

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

India

Exports

Apr-YoY

4.6%

-6.0%

India

Imports

Apr-YoY

8.2%

-0.7%

India

Tradebalance

April

-USD16.9bn

-USD17.2bn

-USD15.6bn

Wednesday,May15

EventsandMeeting:PBOCMLFRate

2.50%

2.50%

Thursday,May16

EventsandMeeting:BPSOvernightBorrowingRate

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

Friday,May17

SouthKoreaUnemploymentRate

Apr

2.8%

ChinaIndustrialProduction

Apr-YoY

4.6%

5.4%

4.5%

ChinaRetailSales

Apr-YoY

3.5%

3.8%

3.1%

ChinaFixedAssetInvestment,

Apr-YoYYtd

4.5%

4.6%

4.5%

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankresearch

13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

Appendix1

ImportantDisclosures

*Otherinformationavailableuponrequest

*PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteat

/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures

.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundat

/Research/Disclosures/

Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.

AnalystCertification

Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s).Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalyst(s)hasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.JulianaLee,KaushikDas,YiXiong.

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

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13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

AdditionalInformation

TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively'DeutscheBank').Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites.

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_notice.Theissuer/security-specificconflictofinterestdisclosuresonthisNumiswebpagedonottakeintoaccountthebusinessandactivitiesofDeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliateswhicharenotmembersoftheNumisGroup.

IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson.

DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues.

Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovidesliquidityforbuyersandsellersofsecuritiesissuedbythecompaniesitcovers.DeutscheBankresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtradeideasthatmaybeinconsistentwithDeutscheBank'sexistinglonger-termratings.SometradeideasforequitiesarelistedasCatalystCallsontheResearchWebsite(

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),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany'spage.ACatalystCallrepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthatastockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthantwoweeksandnomorethanthreemonths.InadditiontoCatalystCalls,analystsmayoccasionallydiscusswithourclients,andwithDeutscheBanksalespersonsandtraders,tradingstrategiesorideasthatreferencecatalystsoreventsthatmayhaveanear-termormedium-termimpactonthemarketpriceofthesecuritiesdiscussedinthisreport,whichimpactmaybedirectionallycountertotheanalysts'current12-monthviewoftotalreturnorinvestmentreturnasdescribedherein.DeutscheBankhasnoobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifyarecipientthereofifanopinion,forecastorestimatechangesorbecomesinaccurate.Coverageandthefrequencyofchangesinmarketconditionsandinbothgeneralandcompany-specificeconomicprospectsmakeitdifficulttoupdateresearchatdefinedintervals.UpdatesareatthesolediscretionofthecoverageanalystoroftheResearchDepartmentManagement,andthemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervals.Thisreportisprovidedforinformationalpurposesonlyanddoesnottakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsofindividualclients.Itisnotanofferorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellanyfinancialinstrumentsortoparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Targetpricesareinherentlyimpreciseandaproductoftheanalyst'sjudgment.Thefinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforallinvestors,andinvestorsmustmaketheirowninformedinvestmentdecisions.Pricesandavailabilityoffinancialinstrumentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice,andinvestmenttransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofpricefluctuationsandotherfactors.Ifafinancialinstrumentisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'scurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Performancecalculationsexcludetransactioncosts,unlessotherwiseindicated.Unlessotherwiseindicated,pricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataisalsosourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andotherparties.

Page6DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

TheDeutscheBankResearchDepartmentisindependentofotherbusinessdivisionsoftheBank.Detailsregardingourorganizationalarrangementsandinformationbarrierswehavetopreventandavoidconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoourresearchareavailableonourwebsite(

/Research/

)underDisclaimer.

Macroeconomicfluctuationsoftenaccountformostoftherisksassociatedwithexposurestoinstrumentsthatpromisetopayfixedorvariableinterestrates.Foraninvestorwhoislongfixed-rateinstruments(thusreceivingthesecashflows),increasesininterestratesnaturallyliftthediscountfactorsappliedtotheexpectedcashflowsandthuscausealoss.Thelongerthematurityofacertaincashflowandthehigherthemoveinthediscountfactor,thehigherwillbetheloss.Upsidesurprisesininflation,fiscalfundingneeds,andFXdepreciationratesareamongthemostcommonadversemacroeconomicshockstoreceivers.Butcounterpartyexposure,issuercreditworthiness,clientsegmentation,regulation(includingchangesinassetsholdinglimitsfordifferenttypesofinvestors),changesintaxpolicies,currencyconvertibility(whichmayconstraincurrencyconversion,repatriationofprofitsand/orliquidationofpositions),andsettlementissuesrelatedtolocalclearinghousesarealsoimportantriskfactors.Thesensitivityoffixed-incomeinstrumentstomacroeconomicshocksmaybemitigatedbyindexingthecontractedcashflowstoinflation,toFXdepreciation,ortospecifiedinterestrates-thesearecommoninemergingmarkets.Theindexfixingsmay-byconstruction-lagormis-measuretheactualmoveintheunderlyingvariablestheyareintendedtotrack.Thechoiceoftheproperfixing(ormetric)isparticularlyimportantinswapsmarkets,wherefloatingcouponrates(i.e.,couponsindexedtoatypicallyshort-datedinterestratereferenceindex)areexchangedforfixedcoupons.FundinginacurrencythatdiffersfromthecurrencyinwhichcouponsaredenominatedcarriesFXrisk.Optionsonswaps(swaptions)theriskstypicaltooptionsinadditiontotherisksrelatedtoratesmovements.

Derivativetransactionsinvolvenumerousrisksincludingmarket,counterpartydefaultandilliquidityrisk.Theappropriatenessoftheseproductsforusebyinvestorsdependsontheinvestors'owncircumstances,includingtheirtaxposition,theirregulatoryenvironmentandthenatureoftheirotherassetsandliabilities;assuch,investorsshouldtakeexpertlegalandfinancialadvicebeforeenteringintoanytransactionsimilartoorinspiredbythecontentsofthispublication.Theriskoflossinfuturestradingandoptions,foreignordomestic,canbesubstantial.Asaresultofthehighdegreeofleverageobtainableinfuturesandoptionstrading,lossesmaybeincurredthataregreaterthantheamountoffundsinitiallydeposited-uptotheoreticallyunlimitedlosses.Tradinginoptionsinvolvesriskandisnotsuitableforallinvestors.Priortobuyingorsellinganoption,investorsmustreviewthe'CharacteristicsandRisksofStandardizedOptions",at

/company

-information/documents-and-archives/publications.Ifyouareunabletoaccessthewebsite,pleasecontactyourDeutscheBankrepresentativeforacopyofthisimportantdocument.

Participantsinforeignexchangetransactionsmayincurrisksarisingfromseveralfactors,includingthefollowing:(i)exchangeratescanbevolatileandaresubjecttolargefluctuations;(ii)thevalueofcurrenciesmaybeaffectedbynumerousmarketfactors,includingworldandnationaleconomic,politicalandregulatoryevents,eventsinequityanddebtmarketsandchangesininterestrates;and(iii)currenciesmaybesubjecttodevaluationorgovernment-imposedexchangecontrols,whichcouldaffectthevalueofthecurrency.InvestorsinsecuritiessuchasADRs,whosevaluesareaffectedbythecurrencyofanunderlyingsecurity,effectivelyassumecurrencyrisk.

Unlessgoverninglawprovidesotherwise,alltransactionsshouldbeexecutedthroughtheDeutscheBankentityintheinvestor'shomejurisdiction.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps:///Research/oneachcompany'sresearchpage.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.

DeutscheBank(whichincludesDeutscheBankAG,itsbranchesandaffiliatedcompanies)isnotactingasafinancialadviser,consultantorfiduciarytoyouoranyofyouragents(collectively,"You"or"Your")withrespecttoanyinformationprovidedinthisreport.DeutscheBankdoesnotprovideinvestment,legal,taxoraccountingadvice,DeutscheBankisnotactingasyourimpartialadviser,anddoesnotexpressanyopinionorrecommendationwhatsoeverastoanystrategies,productsoranyotherinformationpresentedinthematerials.Informationcontainedhereinisbeingprovidedsolelyonthebasisthattherecipientwillmakeanindependentassessmentofthemeritsofanyinvestmentdecision,anditdoesnotconstitutearecommendationof,orexpressanopinionon,anyproductorserviceoranytradingstrategy.

Theinformationpresentedisgeneralinnatureandisnotdirectedtoretirementaccountsoranyspecificpersonoraccounttype,andisthereforeprovidedtoYouontheexpressbasisthatitisnotadvice,andYoumaynotrelyuponitinmakingYourdecision.Theinformationweprovideisbeingdirectedonlytopersonswebelievetobefinanciallysophisticated,whoarecapableofevaluatinginvestmentrisksindependently,bothingeneralandwithregardtoparticulartransactionsandinvestmentstrategies,andwhounderstandthatDeutscheBankhasfinancialinterestsintheofferingofitsproductsandservices.Ifthisisnotthecase,orifYouareanIRAorotherretailinvestorreceivingthisdirectlyfromus,weaskthatyouinformusimmediately.

InJuly2018,DeutscheBankreviseditsratingsystemforshorttermideaswherebythebrandinghasbeenchangedtoCatalystCalls("CC")fromSOLARideas;theratingcategoriesforCatalystCallsoriginatedintheAmericasregionhavebeenmadeconsistentwiththecategoriesusedbyAnalystsglobally;andtheeffectivetimeperiodforCCshasbeenreducedfromamaximumof180daysto90days.

UnitedStates:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncorporated,amemberofFINRAandSIPC.AnalystslocatedoutsideoftheUnitedStatesareemployedbynon-USaffiliatesandarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.

EuropeanEconomicArea(exc.UnitedKingdom):Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankAG,ajointstockcorporationwithlimitedliabilityincorporatedintheFederalRepublicofGermanywithitsprincipalofficeinFrankfurtamMain.

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

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13May2024

AsiaWeekAhead

DeutscheBankAGisauthorizedunderGermanBankingLawandissubjecttosupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandbyBaFin,Germany'sFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority.ThisresearchreportisalsodistributedbyNumisEuropeLimited('NEL'),toEEAclientsasthird-partyresearch.NELisaninvestmentfirmauthorisedandregulatedbytheCentralBankofIreland('CBI'),withitsregisteredaddressatRiverviewHouse,21-23CityQuay,Dublin2,D02FP21,TheRepublicofIreland.

UnitedKingdom:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankAGactingthroughitsLondonBranchat21Moorfields,LondonEC2Y9DB.DeutscheBankAGintheUnitedKingdomisauthorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandissubjecttolimitedregulationbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandFinancialConductAuthority.Detailsabouttheextentofourauthorisationandregulationareavailableonrequest.

HongKongSAR:DistributedbyDeutscheBankAG,HongKongBranch,exceptforanyresearchcontentrelatingtofuturescontractswithinthemeaningoftheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinanceCap.571.Researchreportsonsuchfuturescontractsarenotintendedforaccessbypersonswhoarelocated,incorporated,constitutedorresidentinHongKong.Theauthor(s)ofaresearchreportmaynotbelicensedtocarryonregulatedactivitiesinHongKong,andifnotlicensed,donotholdthemselvesoutasbeingabletodoso.Theprovisionssetoutaboveinthe'AdditionalInformation'sectionshallapplytothefullestextentpermissiblebylocallawsandregulations,includingwithoutlimitationtheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommission.Thisreportisintendedfordistributiononlyto'professionalinvestors'asdefinedinPart1ofScheduleoftheSFO.Thisdocumentmustnotbeactedorreliedonbypersonswhoarenotprofessionalinvestors.Anyinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthisdocumentrelatesisonlyavailabletoprofessionalinvestorsandwillbeengagedonlywithprofessionalinvestors.

India:PreparedbyDeutscheEquitiesIndiaPrivateLimited(DEIPL)havingCIN:U65990MH2002PTC137431andregisteredofficeat14thFloor,TheCapital,C-70,GBlock,BandraKurlaComplex,Mumbai(India)400051.Tel:+912271804444.ItisregisteredbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(SEBI)asaStockbrokerbearingregistrationno.:INZ000252437;MerchantBankerbearingSEBIRegistrationno.:INM000010833andResearchAnalystbearingSEBIRegistrationno.:INH000001741.DEIPL'sCompliance/GrievanceofficerisMs.RashmiPoddar(Tel:+912271804929emailID:complaints.deipl@).RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceofDEIPLorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeinvesting.DEIPLmayhavereceivedadministrativewarningsfromtheSEBIforbreachesofIndianregulations.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayhavedebtholdingsorpositionsinthesubjectcompany.Withregardtoinformationonassociates,pleaserefertothe"Shareholdings"sectionintheAnnualReportat:https:///ir/en/annual-reports.htm.

Japan:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheSecuritiesInc.(DSI).Registrationnumber-RegisteredasafinancialinstrumentsdealerbytheHeadoftheKantoLocalFinanceBureau(Kinsho)No.117.Memberofassociations:JSDA,TypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociationandTheFinancialFuturesAssociationofJapan.Commissionsandrisksinvolvedinstocktransactions-forstocktransactions,wechargestockcommissionsandconsumptiontaxbymultiplyingthetransactionamountbythecommissionrateagreedwitheachcustomer.Stocktransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofsharepricefluctuationsandotherfactors.Transactionsinforeignstockscanleadtoadditionallossesstemmingfromforeignexchangefluctuations.Wemayalsochargecommissionsandfeesforcertaincategoriesofinvestmentadvice,productsandservices.Recommendedinvestmentstrategies,productsandservicescarrytheriskoflossestoprincipalandotherlossesasaresultofchangesinmarketand/oreconomictrends,and/orfluctuationsinmarketvalue.Beforedecidingonthepurchaseoffinancialproductsand/orservices,customersshouldcarefullyreadtherelevantdisclosures,prospectusesandotherdocumentation.'Moody's','StandardPoor's',and'Fitch'mentionedinthisreportarenotregisteredcreditratingagenciesinJapanunlessJapanor'Nippon'isspecificallydesignatedinthenameoftheentity.ReportsonJapaneselistedcompaniesnotwrittenbyanalystsofDSIarewrittenbyDeutscheBankGroup'sanalystswiththecoveragecompaniesspecifiedbyDSI.Someoftheforeignsecuritiesstatedonthisreporta