BCG：汽车商业模式报告-如何在未来的汽车和出行行业中获利-2023-03-市场解读

ecG

HowtoProfitinTomorrow’s

AutomotiveandMobilityIndustry

ByMarkusHagenmaier,JulienBert,AugustinK.Wegscheider,ThomasPalme,

RaphaelKirn,andLuisSchaber

Isthetraditionalbusinessmodelintheautomotiveindustry—centered

aroundsellingcombustion-enginevehiclesthroughfranchisedealer-

ships—runningoutofgas?Newtechnology,changingcustomerprefer-ences,upstartmobilityplayers,andotherfactorsareallcreatingradical

disruptions.Thechangesthemselvesarenotasecret.Whatissurpris-

ingtomanyexecutivesisthesheerscopeandspeedofthechanges

underway,andtheamountofmoneyatstakeincertaindomains.

toanalyzetheseshiftsandhowtheywillaffect

valuepoolsintheglobalautomotiveandmobilityindustrybetweennowand2035.(Ouranalysisincluded

W

erecentlydevelopedacomprehensivemodel

onlycarsandlighttrucks,notheaviercommercialvehi-cles.)Keyfindingsinclude:

•Totalvaluepools—includingbothrevenueandprofit—

willincreasedramaticallyby2035(to$8.3trillionand

$524billion,respectively),andoverallprofitmarginsfor

theindustrywillincreaseto6.3%(afteratemporarydrop).

•Despitethisgrowth,profitabilityfromtraditionalbusinessmodelswillgraduallydeclinethrough2035.Profitsfromthesaleofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles—includingplug-inhybridvehicles(PHEVs)—willseethesteepestdrop,contractingbymorethan60%.

•Virtuallyallrevenueandprofitgrowthintheindustry

willbeconcentratedinasmallnumberofemerging

segments:battery-electricvehicles(BEVs),autonomousvehicles(AVs),thecomponentsandsoftwareforBEVsandAVs,andon-demandmobility(ODM).

1HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY

•ThedeclineinclassicprofitswillbeparticularlypronouncedindevelopedautomarketsliketheUSandEuropethatdonotseeanyfurthergrowthintotalvehiclesales.

Ourfindingsshouldserveasawake-upcallformanage-

mentteamsatautomotiveandmobilityplayers—both

incumbentsandnewmarketentrants.Companieshaveanarrowwindowofopportunityinwhichtogetaheadofthedisruptions,byidentifyingandcapitalizingonthoseseg-

mentsofthemarketthatwillgrow.Managementteamscanstillrunsuccessful,profitablebusinessesintheauto-motiveandmobilityindustry,providedtheytakebold,

proactivestepstorethinkhowtheydesign,build,sell,maintain,andoperatevehicles.

QuantifyingHowDisruptionsWillAffectBoththeTopandBottomLine

Formorethanacentury,thebusinessmodelintheauto-motiveindustryhasbeenrelativelyunchanged.Incumbentcompaniesdevelop,produce,andsellcarspoweredby

ICEs,servicethem,andthenrepeatthatprocesswiththenextdesigncycle.Butjustabouteveryaspectofthatmod-elisnowinflux.

Aftermorethanacenturyofstability,almosteveryaspectofthetraditionalautoindustrybusiness

modelischanging.

BEVsaredisplacinggasoline-anddiesel-poweredcars

(includingPHEVs).Newmobilityprovidersgivepeople

alternativestotraditionalcarownership—particularlyin

cities—suchasride-hailingapps,car-sharingservices,andmicromobilityprogramsthatoffersharedbicyclesand

scooters.Salesmodelsareevolvingfromtraditionaldealer-shipstoonlineordirectpurchasesandnewformats,suchascarsubscriptions.Andautonomousvehicle(AV)tech-

nologyisgainingground.Someindustryexpertsquestionwhetherthesechangesareasdisruptiveastheyseem.Webelievethereisarealriskinunderestimatingthelevelofdisruptionunderway.

(See“DebunkingThreeMythsAbout

theMobilityIndustry’sFuture.”)

Tocompete,companiesneedtounderstandthespeedandscopeofchange,startingwiththeproductitselfbutalso

howitisbeingpurchasedandused,aswellasadditional

servicesaroundtheproduct.Tothatend,webuiltanin-

depthmarketmodeltoanalyzethesechangesinthe

automotiveandmobilityindustryandtheirimplicationsonfinancialperformance.Weconsideredtwobroadcategoriesofprofitpools.

•Classicprofitpoolsincludethoselinkedtotraditional

businessmodelsthathavebeenaroundforalong

periodoftime:salesofICEandPHEVvehiclesandthecomponentsrelatedtothem,post-saleserviceforthesevehicles,andthefinanceandinsurancesegmentsforalltypesofvehicle(ICE,plug-in,hybrid,andBEV).

•Emergingprofitpoolsincludenon-traditionalvehicles—

bothbattery-electricandautonomous—theunderlying

componentsandsoftwareinthosevehicles,thenew

typesofaftermarketsalesandservicetheyrequire(in-

cludingEVcharging),andon-demandmobility(includingride-hailingapps,car-sharingservices,robotaxis,andmi-cromobilityoptionssuchassharedbikesandscooters).

Ouranalysispointstoseveralkeyfindings.

Theoverallindustrywillgrowdramatically.First,thegoodnews.Theindustrywillcontinuetogrow,withtotalrevenueworldwideincreasingfrom$5.1trillionin2021

to$8.3trillionin2035.Overallprofitswillriseintandem,from$310billionto$524billion,acompoundannual

growthrate(CAGR)of4%.

However,as

Exhibit1

shows,mostofthatgrowthwillcomefromemergingprofitpools,whichweprojecttoincrease

almosttenfold.Atthesametime,classicpools—ICE-pow-eredvehiclesandassociatedservices—willactuallycon-tractabout17%,from$278billionto$231billion.

Salesgrowthfornewvehicleswillslow.Underpinningtheseshiftsaretwocentralfactors.First,afterdecades

ofincreasesintheoverallnumberofnewcarssoldworld-

wide,salesgrowthwillslowandvolumewillplateauat

approximately107millionunitsby2035.

(SeeExhibit2.)

Already,somemarketsareseeingadeceleration—orevenadecline—innewvehiclesales.Inadditiontomarketsatura-tion,demographicchangesmeanareductioninthenumberofpotentialcarbuyersinmanymarkets.Asubstantialgroupofpeopleareconsidering

givinguptheirprivatecars

entirely,relyingpurelyonon-demandmobilityoptions.

Underpinningthisshiftisacentralfactor:theshare

betweenprivateandcommercialcarbuyerswillchange.Inouranalysis,about9.5millionvehiclessoldin2035willgotoshared,on-demandmobilityproviderssuchas

ride-hailingservicesandautonomousrobotaxis.

2HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY

524

324

293

310

65

259

32

278

231

Exhibit1-EmergingProfitPoolsWillDriveOverallGrowthandMargin

Totalprofit($billions)

+4%CAGR

391

152

238

Revenue

($trillions)

Margin

2021202520302035

5.1

6.1

7.1

8.3

6.0%5.3%5.5%6.3%

ClassicprofitpoolsEmergingprofitpools

Source:BCGanalysis.

Note:Negativeprofitsexcludedfromtotalindustryprofits.

Exhibit2-DecadesofGrowthinNewCarSalesWillCometoanEnd

Globallightvehiclesales(units,millions)1

COVID-19andchipcrisis

USandEU

markets

contract

after2024;

Chinaand

restofworld

continue

growing

107

Global

financial

crisis

Chinese

market

Broad

opensup

Postwar

boomyears

Firstmass-

producedcar

adoption

ofshared,on-demandvehicles2

Goldentwenties

Oilcrisis

75

19001910

1920193019401950196019701980199020002010

Today

2020

2030

Sharedon-demandvehicles

Sources:IHSMarkitAutomotive(2022);BCGanalysis.

1Doesnotincludeheavyvans.

2Includesvehiclesforthepurposeofcarsharingand(autonomous)ridesharing.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP3

DebunkingThreeMythsAbouttheMobilityIndustry’sFuture

Inourconversationswithautomotiveexperts,wehear

severalargumentsthatthecurrentchangesunderwayin

theindustrymaynotbeasprofoundastheyseem.We

believethatthesearemythspreventingpeoplefromtakingsufficientactioninresponsetocurrentchanges.Thesefallintothreebroadcategories.

Myth:Battery-electricvehicles(BEVs)willcause

profitsintheautoindustryvaluechaintoshrinkdramatically.

OuranalysisshowsthatoverallprofitabilityforbothOEMsandcomponentmanufacturerswilldipinthenearterm

duetothemassiveinvestmentsrequiredandthefactthatthesecomponentsarenotasfaralonginthelearningandcost-reductioncurves.Butultimately,profitswillincreaseoverthelongterm.

Ashighlightedinthisarticle,industryprofitswillfacea

varietyofinfluencingforcesinthefuture,butitisworth

isolatingtheeffectofelectrificationonprofits.Manyclassicpowertrain-relatedpartswillnolongerbeneeded,and

relatedprofitpoolssuchasafter-salesservicewillshrink.Butdemandforotherproducts,liketiresorsteeringcom-ponents,willremainjustasstrong.Inaddition,BEVpower-train-relatedcomponents,suchasbatteries,e-motors,andinverters,arebecomingcorevaluedriversandwillexperi-encetremendousgrowthoverthenextyears,thanksto

increasingBEVadoptioninvehiclessalesandvehicleparc.ScaleandcorrelatedcostreductionforBEVpowertrain

componentsisakeydrivingfactorhere(whileICEpower-trainsexperienceitasareversingfactor—decliningvol-umespairedwithincreasinglydemandingemissionre-

quirementsandcorrelatedcostforICEpowertrains).By2035,newBEVcarsalesunitsandprofitswillhaveout-pacedthoseofclassicnewcarsales.

Myth:Sharedandon-demandmobilityservicesarejustatemporary—andunprofitable—blipthatwilldisappearoverthelongterm.

Mostprovidersarenotyetprofitable,butthepathto

profitabilitywillbecomeclearerovertime,duetoindustryconsolidationamongplayersacrossthevaluechain,

increasingfleetutilization,better-suitedvehicleandservicedesign,and—critically—regulatoryandpolicysupport

fromgovernments.Inparticular,governmentmeasures

thatmakeprivatelyownedvehicleslessattractive(suchasfees,outrightbans,parkingthatislessavailableormore

expensive)willmakeon-demandmobilitymoreattractive.Anotherfactorwillbetheintroductionofautonomous

vehicles,enablingrobotaxiservices.Driversarecurrentlythebiggestcostforride-hailingservices.Oncevehiclesareautomated,costswillgodown,usagerateswillincrease,andprofitabilitywillrisedramatically.

Myth:Autonomousvehicleswillneverbecometechnologicallyfeasible.Butiftheydo,they

willimmediatelyreplacetraditional,driver-operatedvehicles.

Webelievetheanswerliessomewhereinthemiddle.

Giventherangeofcompaniesdevelopingautonomous

technologyandtheprogressachievedthusfar,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforeAVsareoperational.Initially,they

willbelimitedtocommercialapplicationsinclosed-loop

routes—suchaspeoplemoversonpredesignatedtracksincities—butasthetechnologyadvances,applicationswill

expandtootheroperatingenvironments.Atthesame

time,autonomousoperationsinprivatevehicleswillcon-tinuetoadvance.Already,level3and4technologyisbeingadoptedforspecificapplicationssuchashighwaysandinstop-and-gotraffic.

DeployingAVsinanarearequiresextensivepreparations,

suchasmappingstreetsandincorporatinglocalparticulari-tiesintothecontrolalgorithms.Therefore,AVservice

providerswillrollouttheirservicesonacautious,city-by-cityapproach,withstrictgeographicboundariesandweather

constraints.Withinfivetosevenyearsofcommerciallaunch,weexpecttheglobalrobotaxifleettogrowto1.5million

vehiclesglobally.Thatmayseemhigh,butitequatestoafewhundredthousandnewrobotaxiseachyear,whichisless

than1%oftheglobalsalesvolumefornewcars.

Longerterm,evenafterAVsbecomeoperational,theywillnotreplaceothervehiclesenmasseforseveral

reasons.Manyruralareaswithlowpopulationdensity

lackattractivebusinesseconomicstosupportautonomousoperations,leavingdriversinthoseregionshighlyreliant

onprivatecarownershipforyears.Evenincities,manygovernmentswillsetoperationallimitstoavoidawhole-saleshiftawayfrompublictransitsystems.

4HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY

15%

24%

9% 7%

2%2%6%2%5%

ThreeMajorTrendsAreChangingtheGame

Asnotedabove,on-demandmobilityisonlyoneofthreetrendstriggeringmassiveshiftsintheindustry’sprofit

pools,alongwithelectrificationandautomation.Tounder-standthespeedandscopeofthisdisruption,welookat

eachtrendseparately.

(SeeExhibit3.)

BEVswilldominateanddriveprofits.Worldwide,we

arealreadyseeingbroadadoptionofelectricvehiclesin

mostmajormarkets.IncountrieslikeNorway,BEVsand

PHEVsalreadymakeupthevastmajorityofnewcarsales.Aconfluenceoftrendswillfurtherpushadoptionofplug-invehicles,includinglower-costmanufacturingthrough

scaledproductionofbothcarsandbatterypacks,greatervehiclerange,moreconvenientcharginginfrastructure,

andstricteremissionsregulations.By2035,BEVswillcom-prisenearly60%ofworldwidenewcarsales.Atthesametime,theshifttoBEVswillleadtoanincreaseinindustryprofitabilityfromnewcarsales(NCS),from$122billionin2021toapproximately$135billionin2035.

On-demandmobilitywillbecomefarbiggerand

moreprofitable.Theuseof

on-demandmobilityservices

issteadilyincreasing,andthatwilllikelycontinue,gradu-

allydecreasingrelianceonpersonalcars,taxis,andpublictransport.By2035,weprojectthatabout23%ofallmegac-itytripswillhappenthroughshared,on-demandmobility

offerings(upfromjust8%in2021).Moreover,weexpect

on-demandmobilitytobecomethesecondbiggestprofitpoolintheindustry,withtotalprofitsreaching$82billion,nearlysixtimesaslargeastoday.Withintheon-demandmobilitysegment,robotaxiswilleventuallybecomebyfarthebiggestprofitpoolwith$61billionby2035.

Autonomousvehicleswillbecomeakeyfactorin

profitability.AVswillhaveabig

impactonfutureurban

mobility

andlikewiseonprofitsfortheindustry—factoringinprivatevehiclesalesand,morerelevant,on-demand

mobilityproviders.Thefirstyearsofrobotaxioperations

willnotbeprofitableasscaleisrequiredtorecoupthe

immenseupfrontinvestmentsintoAVtechnology,butweexpectAVvehicleandAVcomponentsalestobeprofitableatanearlierstage.By2035weexpectthesetwocategoriestoaccountfor$13.4billionand$5.8billion,respectively.

Asclassicautoindustryprofitpoolsdeclinein

responsetonewtechnologies,companiesthatcanpivottoemergingpoolswillberewarded.

Exhibit3-ThreeConvergingTrendsWillDisrupttheIndustry

Electrifiedvehicles

willbecomedominant

Shareofnewcarsales

2%

6%

5%

19%

5%

39%

3%

59%

2035

202120252030

Gasoline&diesel

Hybrid&mildhybrid(HEV)

Plug-inhybrid(PHEV)

Electricvehicle(BEV)

Sharedon-demandmobility

offeringsgainacceptance

Shareofurbantripsinmegacities1

19%

8%

23%

10%

2021202520302035

Privatecar

Publictransit

Walk/privatebicycle

On-demandmobility

Autonomousvehicles

willemergeinthenexttenyears

Shareofnewcarsales

50/50split

betweenrobo

taxisandprivatelyownedAVs

20302035

20212025

NoneL3

L0/1L4/5

L2

L2+

Sources:IHSMarkitAutomotive(2022);Statista;BCGanalysis.

1BasedonablendedfuturemodalmixofNewYork,LosAngeles,Paris,London,Moscow,Shanghai,Beijing,Chongquin,Guangzhou,Tianjin,Shenzhen,Tokyo,andOsaka.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP5

ADramaticShifttoEmergingProfitPools

Overall,thereisadramaticswinginprofitabilityforthe

industry,awayfromclassicpoolsthatincumbentshave

longdominatedandinfavorofemergingpools—particu-

larlyBEVs,AVs,andon-demandmobility.Understanding

thecompositionofthisshiftmoregranularlyiscriticalforindustryleadershipteamstomaketargeteddecisions.Forexample,althoughtheclassicNCSprofitverticalwillplum-metfrom$120billionin2021to$47billionin2035,this

developmentismainlydrivenbydeclinesofpureICE

vehicles(−95%fordieseland−89%forgasoline).Inthe

otherdirection,the$67billionincreaseofon-demand

mobilityprofitsby2035willbepredominantlydrivenby

robotaxiservices.Allotheron-demandmobilitymodes

combinedwillmakeuponlyaboutaquarterofthetotal

profitsforthatsegmentin2035.

(SeeExhibit4.)

Thisanaly-sisincludescannibalizationeffectsbetweennewmobilitymodes(forexample,robotaxisreplacingmanualride-shar-ingduetoloweroperatingcosts).

Itiscrucialnottoremainoverlyreliantondecliningprofitpools.Thosethatadaptwillberewarded:growthinemerg-ingprofitpoolbucketswillmorethancompensatethe

lossesinclassicprofitpools.Thisisespeciallytruefor

regionswithstagnatingvehiclesaleswhereoverallindustrygrowthislimited,suchasEuropeandNorthAmerica.By

2035,emergingprofitpoolswillconstitute56%oftotalglobalindustryprofits.

GeographicDifferencesintheFutureOutlook

Anotherkeyaspectofourresearchshowshowthespeedofchangeandurgencyofactionvaryacrossregions.WhileprofitsintheUSandChinagrowatasimilarpace,they

showdifferencesingrowthcompositionovertheyears—especiallyregardingthestartofclassicprofitpooldecline.ThisdeclinehasbegunnowintheUSandissettobeginafter2025inChina.Europe,incontrast,willseeslight

overallprofitgrowth.

(SeeExhibit5.)

TheUSwillseestronggrowthinon-demandmobil-ity,includingfromautonomousvehicles.IntheUS,

salesofnewcarswithtraditionalICEpowertrains(alongwithplug-inhybrids)willdeclinesharplytoapproximatelyone-thirdofcurrentlevels,withtotalsalesofallvehicles

virtuallyflatafter2025.Newprofitswillgrowrapidlyto

comprisealargershareofoverallprofits,whileclassic

poolscontract.By2035,65%ofallprofitswillcomefromnewpools,duetobroadadoptionofBEVsandAVs,par-

ticularlyforrobotaxiservices.Theon-demandmobility

segmentoverallwillshowfastergrowth—andgeneratealargerprofitpool—thaninanyotherregion,to$39billion,asprovidersrolloutnewofferingsacrossmajorUScities.

EuropewillseethehighestratesofBEVadoption.

EuropewillseeanevenbiggerdeclineintraditionalICE

vehicleslong-term(somewhattemporarilycompensated

bygrowthinPHEVsalesthrough2024).Environmentalreg-ulationsandambitiouseffortsfromOEMswillpushBEVstomakeup93%ofnewcarsalesby2035(orevenmore,

accordingtorecentannouncementsbytheEuropean

Union).Thatgrowthwillcreateprofitpoolsof$21billionfromBEVsales,plusanother$15billioninservices(in-

cludinganattractivechargingmarket).Overall,newprofitpoolsfromBEVs,AVs,andon-demandmobilitywillmakeupnearly60%oftotalindustryprofits.

Chinawillremainthebiggestoverallcontributortoindustryprofits.Chinawillseethesmallestdeclinein

classicprofitpools.Continuedeconomicdevelopmentandincreasingper-capitavehiclesaleswillmeanthattradi-

tionalprofitpoolswillcontinuetogrowthroughroughly

2025—andremainapproximatelyinlinewiththeircurrentlevelsby2035.ProfitsfromthesaleofICEcarsandPHEVswilldeclinebymorethanhalf,butthefinanceandinsur-

ancemarketwillmakeupmostofthedifference,asthat

segmentseesdramaticgrowthduetocontinuedincreasesinvehiclesales,highervehicleprices,andincreasingpene-trationoffinancialservices.

Yet,asinboththeUSandEurope,thebiggestopportunityliesinemergingprofitpoolsasBEVadoptiongrows.We

seetremendousgrowthinprofitsfromBEVsales($25

billionin2035)andBEVpowertraincomponents($8bil-lion).Likewise,softwarecomponentswillhavebecomeasignificantprofitpool($8billion)aswillnewaftermarketsalesandservices($23billion),drivenmainlybydigital

serviceswithinandaroundthecar,suchasinfotainmentandover-the-airupdates.In2035,around58%oftotal

industryprofitswillbecapturedbyemergingprofitpools.

6HOWTOPROFITINTOMORROW’SAUTOMOTIVEANDMOBILITYINDUSTRY

.

19

(+4)

Chassis

&E/E

.

3

(+1)PHEV

.

21

(+17)MHEV

Exhibit4-Profitsin2035WillShifttoEmergingPools

Classicprofitpools($billions)

Classic

components

Newcarsales

(ICEandhybrids)

After-sales

service

Financing

andinsurance

2035

60(–3)

56(–2)

68(+31)

47

(–73)

Total:$231billion(–47)

7

(–12)

ICE&hybrid

powertrain

.

1

(–15)

Diesel

.

13

(–1)

Accessories&

consumables1

.

20

(+2)Loans

.

16

(+3)

Body&

exterior

.

11

(–82)Gasoline

.

15

(–3)

Electronics&

mechanicalparts1

.

24

(+13)Leasing

14

(+3)

Interior

.

12

(+6)

HEV

12

(+0)

Bodyparts,

glass,lighting1

.

12

(+12)

Subscription

.

10

(+1)

Tires1

.

12

(+5)

Insurance

.

10

(–1)

Wear&tear/

maintenance1

Emergingprofitpools($billions)

Newcomponents(BEV,AV,SW)

Newcarsales(BEV&AV)

Newaftersales,&services

On-demandmobility

2035

82(+67)

88(+86)

70(+67)

54

(+40)

Total:$293billion(+261)

.

22

(+19)

BEVpowertrain

.

3

(+2)

ADAS2(L0-3)

.

3

(+3)

AV(L4&5)

26

(+16)

Software

74

(+73)

ManualBEV

.

8

(+8)

Robotaxi

.

5

(+5)

PrivateAV

37

(+36)

Publiccharging

6

(+6)

Homeand

workplacecharging

.

5

(+3)

BEV&AV

parts,labor,

maintenance

22

(+22)

Dataand

connectivity

.

1

(+1)

Carsharing

9

(+9)

Ridesharing

61

(+61)

Robotaxi

.

3

(+3)

Micromobility

.

2

(+2)

Intermodal

platform

6

(–8)

Offlinetaxi

Source:BCGanalysis.

Notes:Coloredbubblesshow2035profitpoolsize;dottedlinesindicate2021profitpoolsize.Colorednumbersinparenthesesindicatechangesinprofitpoolsizein$billions.Negativeprofitsexcluded.

1Includeslabor.

2ADAS=Advanceddriver-assistancesystems.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP7

+5%CAGR131

86

37

524444

82

65

5

13

60

81

74

73

33

48

6

68

14

59

144

114

54

60

87

74

23

64

63

11

Exhibit5-IndustryProfitsAreStrongestinChina

Industry

revenue

($trillions)

Industry

profit

($billions)

Keydrivers

US

1.21.41.61.9

65

2021202520302035

•StagnatingnewICE/PHEVcarsalesafter2025

•SlowerBEVramp-upcomparedtoEuropeandChina

•Firstmoverinautonomousride-sharing

EU

1.11.21.41.5

+2%CAGR

103

61

42

2021202520302035

•StagnatingnewICE/PHEVcarsalesafter2025

•HighBEVpenetration

•Lateradoptionofautonomous

ride-sharingvs.otherkeyregions

China

1.21.62.02.3

+5%CAGR

84

60

2021202520302035

•Increasingnewcarsalesuntil2035

•HighBEVpenetration

•Highnumberofmetropoleswithincreasingon-demandmobilityshare

ClassicprofitpoolsEmergingprofitpools

Source:BCGanalysis.

Note:Negativeprofitsexcludedfromtotalindustryprofits.

SevenWaysforCompaniestoProactivelyAdapt

Onceleadershipteamsunderstandthespeedandmagnitudeofchangeattheindustrylevel,thenextquestionishowtheycanprepare.Thereisnouniversallyapplicablesolution.

Businessleadersandstrategistsshouldreflectonhowmuchoftheirbusinessisatrisk,andhowtheycanrepositionintohigher-growthareas.Basedonourexperienceworkingwith

leadingautomotiveandmobilityplayers,wehavedefined

sevenprincipalplays.

(SeeExhibit6.)

Eachtargetsdifferentprofitpoolsandrequiresvaryingcapabilities,butallhaveoneaspectincommon:tremendousprofitpotential.

Components.Thisplaysummarizesbothclassicand

emergingcomponentsandisalreadybothsizeableand

highlyprofitabletoday.Inouranalysis,theprofitpoolforcomponentsisexpectedtoreach$121billionby2035.

However,componentmanufacturersfacevaryingdegreesofexposuretoprofit-poolshifts.Asupplierofseating

systemsdoesnotcaretoomuchaboutICEvehiclesbeingreplacedbyBEVs,butasupplierofICEcomponentssuchasfuel-injectionsystemswillbeprofoundlydisrupted.

Companiespushingthisplayneedtoidentifyemerging

componentfieldswithlong-termdemand.Forexample,a

camshaftsuppliermightlookcloselyatthemarketforBEVpowertraincomponentsorotheradjacentfields.Inparallel,acomponentsuppliermightlooktoenternewgeographicmarketsorexpandintonewindustries(suchasoffering

BEVcomponentsnotonlyforlightvehiclesbutalsoforothertypesofvehiclesorevenstationaryproducts).

Electricvehicles.Electrificationistheultimatedisruptingforceintheindustryrightnow.ItdrawscompetitionfromtraditionalOEMsandsuppliers,newcomersandstartups,

andadjacentincumbentssuchasenergycompanies—andisexpectedtoreachatotalprofitpoolsizeof$140billion

by2035.Successinthisplaycancomethroughdifferent

strategies,suchasservingthemassmarketbyproducing

EVsinvolumeversusdevelopingpurpose-builtEVsforspe-cificapplications.