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请仔细阅读本报告末页声明证券研究报告|行业专题研究),仍会保持稳健增长,但结构上可能仍以存款为主,此外费率调降也会为今年带来一动权益基金管理费率、托管费率分别不超过1.2%、0.2%,部分基金公司也对1)招商银行:理财、基金市占率第一,优势地位稳固。2023年风险提示:宏观经济复苏不及预期;财富管理费率超预期下调;居民收入回暖不及行业走势0%-16%-32%2023-052023-082023-122024-05作者研究助理倪安峰相关研究1、《银行:本周聚焦—24Q1贷款投向统计报告》P.2请仔细阅读本报告末页声明一、2023行业概览:AUM增速下滑,理财、基金边际企稳 3二、个股分化:弱市下哪些银行仍保持了稳健增长? 6风险提示 8图表1:银行AUM、存款同比增速 3 3图表3:银行非货币基金保有量规模及同比增速 4图表4:银行AUM构成结构变动 4图表5:上市银行理财规模、收入表现 5图表6:上市银行零售客户总AUM、私人银行AUM增速对比(2023A) 7图表7:上市银行AUM结构变动对比 7图表8:上市银行储蓄存款、非保本理财、非货币基金市占率走势对比 8P.3请仔细阅读本报告末页声明5.0%。图表1:银行AUM、存款同比增速AUM同比增速存款同比增速图表2:银行非保本理财规模及同比增速(亿元)非保本理财规模同比增速P.4请仔细阅读本报告末页声明图表3:银行非货币基金保有量规模及同比增速(亿元)TOP100机构中银行非货基保有规模同比增速资料来源:Wind,国盛证券研究所图表4:银行AUM构成结构变动基金基金注:代销基金数据最早仅披露至2021年因素,预计AUM仍会保持稳健增长,但结构上可能仍以存款为主,此外费率调降也会少银行在理财产品规模稳步增长的情况下,收入P.5请仔细阅读本报告末页声明图表5:上市银行理财规模、收入表现(亿元)非保本理财非保本理财规模(亿元)占手续费收入比重理财业务收入占总资产比重23A较年初占营收比重yoy工商银行18,571-13.4%4.2%-------建设银行15,786-21.6%4.1%106.80-34.0%8.2%1.4%农业银行17,748-11.5%4.5%34.40-40.1%3.6%0.5%中国银行6,311-7.3%5.0%68.73-10.8%7.4%1.1%交通银行13,0237.9%9.3%78.08-23.1%16.6%3.0% 邮储银行7,765-6.5%4.9%28.21-62.9%5.5%0.8%招商银行25,489-4.5%23.1%103.94-39.0%11.2%3.1%中信银行17,2849.6%19.1%34.62-59.4%9.4%1.7%浦发银行10,79610.1%12.0%-------民生银行8,677-1.8%11.3%31.41-34.0%12.3%2.2%兴业银行22,6429.5%22.3%55.98-70.9%16.9%2.7%光大银行13,12310.7%19.4%41.41-11.5%15.5%2.8%华夏银行5,91915.3%13.9%-------平安银行10,13114.2%18.1%------- 浙商银行1,492-29.2%4.7%4.35-35.7%7.1%0.7%北京银行2,679-11.8%7.1%12.87-66.4%26.6%1.9%南京银行3,7409.1%16.3%-------宁波银行4,0211.4%14.8%12.55-18.1%17.1%2.0%上海银行2,805-29.5%9.1%5.17-76.5%9.5%1.0%贵阳银行644-4.4%9.4%2.60-26.7%35.6%1.7%杭州银行3,7393.9%20.3%21.11-33.7%44.9%6.0%江苏银行5,20418.7%15.3%-------成都银行73010.7%6.7%4.05-9.8%53.9%1.9%郑州银行444-2.9%7.0%1.96-16.6%26.6%1.4% 长沙银行5350.1%5.2%2.98-41.2%13.2%1.2% 青岛银行2,0813.6%34.2%9.308.2%44.0%7.5%西安银行31712.0%7.3%0.21-86.5%5.9%0.3%苏州银行687-3.8%11.4%6.85-19.8%%5.8%厦门银行122-0.4%3.1%0.67-14.0%10.0%1.2%齐鲁银行5753.3%9.5%4.21-38.4%33.3%3.5%重庆银行5512.7%7.3%3.48-43.5%2.6%兰州银行525-0.5%11.6%2.193.4%50.2%2.7%无锡银行常熟银行江阴银行苏农银行张家港行紫金银行青农商行沪农商行渝农商行2932214311-11.2%-13.2%-3.3%-14.0%4.1%-31.1%-11.4%-1.7%-15.9%7.0%8.8%9.6%7.8%10.7%0.1%6.7%7.6%0.82-0.94-47.2%-47.2%-62.8%-44.0%-44.0%-4.1% 48.3% 2.3%0.8%46.02.3%3.3%0.8%50.7%19.7%10.2%--2.27-50.9%-50.9%瑞丰银行-10.2%6.5%-资料来源:Wind,公司公告,国盛证券研P.6请仔细阅读本报告末页声明1)招商银行:财富管理龙头优势稳定,理财、基金市占率均居上市银行首位市占率居行业首位,产品结构多元:招商银行财富管理业务起步较早,例如早在2007费率下调体现完毕、市场回暖后支撑产品结构改善,招商银行财富管理收入有望表现出2)兴业、平安和宁波银行:AUM快速增长,市占率P.7请仔细阅读本报告末页声明图表6:上市银行零售客户总AUM、私人银行AUM增速对比(2023A)工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行零售客户整体私人银行业务零售客户零售AUM亿元人均AUM万元2023年增速人均AUM万元2023年增速总资产增速较2022年变动2021至今CAGR私行客户数(户)私行AUM亿元私行人均AUM万元2023年增速私行2023年增速总AUM增速较2022年变动2021至今CAGR74,00075,70074,00075,70086,700185,000202,900---19,20066,30019,20066,300152,3000%2.802.442.348.8%--+1.2pc-4.5pc460%2.802.442.348.8%--+1.2pc-4.5pc48.3%-------88-0.3pc 88-0.3pc -2.9pc2.612.3096.8%96.8% -- 8.7%1,1681,1841,18330,70025,2001,1681,1841,18330,70025,20026,50026,90011,664212,800224,00083,600-----0%-2%-0%-2%-20.5%20.5% 23.3%7.6% 23.3%--- +3.4pc19.5% -0.9pc13.3% 招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行19,70013,70019,70013,70015,70012,87210,12815,22442,00036,80027,41134,30027,251-9,326-12,5432,67812,5432,678-6.76 46.4% 40.9% 46.4% 40.9% --148,84274,00043,00055,90669,15863,50214,70090,20012,18941,09610,3136,3007,5738,5506,378148,84274,00043,00055,90669,15863,50214,70090,20012,18941,09610,3136,3007,5738,5506,3782,813 24.6%8.7% 3.4% 27.6% 24.9% 23.4%--------3% +6.3pc1.6%19,1553% +6.3pc1.6%19,1553.072.342.133.39- 40.2%21.9% 72.2%- 0.5%0.5%3.21--0.3pc15.4%-北京银行宁波银行杭州银行江苏银行长沙银行青岛银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行沪农商行3.572,90010,3653.572,900--9,870----5,174----12,400--2.262.268943.543,1703.54--3,000--2567242567242,3253.612,6143.613.217,4593.216.3%22.5%21.1%5.7% 10.0%6.3%22.5%21.1%5.7% 10.0%-3.9pc-0.3-0.3pc-5.7pc+0.4pc+1.9pc-12.5pc- --3.5-3.5pc--5.3pc21,4872,6181,21826.5%20.4%-28.1pc2,3112591,1198.6%-3,400------22.7%39.9%-------- 39.2% 52.1% 49.8%24.9% 21.8%21.8%--- 53.6%8.8%资料来源:Wind,公司公告,国盛证券研注:招商银行私行AUM为23Q3数据,23年末数据未披露。图表7:上市银行AUM结构变动对比邮储银行81.82%8.10%中信银行41.71%57.01%兴业银行31.76%62.92%光大银行40.31%45.66%杭州银行32.13%69.91%江苏银行----厦门银行----理财基金 63.96%理财基金 48. 65.6548. 65.65% 66.01% 41.15% 31.66% 66.01% 40.73% 41.97%22.01%基金2.17%4.09% 2.80% 2.16% 2.19% 2.20% 80.59%21.27% 33.04% 33.69% 44.00% 49.80%22.05%6.26%40.33%3.30% 39.44% 40.43% 39.66% 40.32%4.05% 30.24%4.56% 3 42.99%45.08%44.02% 43.56% 44.06% 40.81%68.24% 62.42%6.51% 54.98% 29.96%24.70%24.70% 22.51% 22.51% 43.43. 40.20%4.18% 44.97%3.05% 66.09%2.68%49. 66.94% 49. 66.94% 41.04% 41.04%49.49.2.88% 41.90% 57.11%49% 40. 42.95%40. 53.40% 53.40% 68.31% %4.97% 47.47.资料来源:Wind,公司公告,国盛证券研注:非货币基金保有量自2021Q1开始披露,且只披露全市场TOP100机构,部分银行数据缺失;个别银行存款+理财+基金超过100%主要是部分银行理财包含对公产品。P.8请仔细阅读本报告末页声明图表8:上市银行储蓄存款、非保本理财、非货币基金市占率走势对比存款+理财+基金合计存款理财基金202120222023202120222023202120222023202120222023工商银行10.40%8.92%7.75%7.75%6.93%3.70%2.75%建设银行11.18%11.01%10.99%8.18%8.18%7.28%2.82%2.55%2.11%农业银行12.45% 7.62%7.25%6.62%1.06%中国银行6.84%6.85%6.84%7.60%7.60%7.62%6.37%6.09%2.81%2.51%交通银行2.85%2.65%2.73%2.34%2.46%2.45%4.92%4.36%4.86%89%.57%邮储银行7.36%7.53%7.46%9.80%9.38%9.12%3.16% 3. 00%2.90%0.74%0.63%0.82%招商银行4.13%3.92%3.93%2.23%2.58%2.55%9.58%9.58%9.51%9.51%9.65%5.41%4.86%4.74%中信银行1.80%1.84%1.93%0.95%1.07%1.07%4.84%6.45%0.87%0.83%0.81%浦发银行1.67%1.46%1.54%1.00%1.11%1.02%4.04%55%4.03%1.10%0.79%0.63%民生银行1.41%1.26%1.21%0.81%0.85%0.88%49%49%3.20%3.3.24%1.06%0.79%0.58%兴业银行1.91%2.13%2.26%0.77%0.90%0.99%6.02%7.48%7.48%8.45%0.97% 60%2.11%光大银行1.44%1.45%1.49%0.84%0.89%0.88%68%68%3.4.29%4.90%0.67%0.47%0.36%华夏银行0.74%0.64%0.67%0.38%0.40%0.37%1.86%0.40%0.19%0.12%平安银行1.22%1.26%1.40%0.75%0.86%0.88%01%3.01%3.21%3.21%3.3.78%0.93%.43%浙商银行0.38%0.28%0.23%0.18%0.18%0.20%0.85%0.76%0.56%0.12%0.08%0.08%北京银行0.57%0.53%0.51%0.43%0.45%0.45%1.23%1.10%1.00%0.23%0.18%0.14%南京银行0.40%0.41%0.43%0.23%0.27%0.31%1.13%1.24%1.40%0.09%0.11%0.08%宁波银行0.45%0.49%0.50%0.21%0.24%0.30%1.15%1.43%1.50%0.54%0.66%0.78%上海银行0.58%0.56%0.51%0.38%0.41%0.41%1.48%1.44%1.05%0.25%0.24%0.35%贵阳银行0.15%0.15%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.29%0.24%0.24%------杭州银行0.34%0.37%0.37%0.13%0.15%0.17%1.06%1.30%1.40%0.22%0.25%0.32%江苏银行0.58%0.62%0.67%0.41%0.46%0.52%1.43%1.59%1.94%1.59%0.17%0.23%0.11%成都银行------0.20%0.23%0.26%0.22%0.24%0.27%------郑州银行------0.12%0.12%0.12%0.17%0.17%0.17%------长沙银行------0.21%0.23%0.25%0.24%0.19%0.20%------青岛银行------0.11%0.12%0.14%0.58%0.73%0.78%------西安银行------0.11%0.12%0.12%0.19%0.10%0.12%------苏州银行------0.11%0.12%0.14%0.27%0.26%0.26%------厦门银行------0.04%0.05%0.05%0.07%0.04%0.05%------齐鲁银行------0.12%0.14%0.14%0.24%0.20%0.21%------重庆银行------0.14%0.14%0.15%0.18%0.19%0.21%------兰州银行------0.19%0.17%0.17%0.13%0.19%0.20%------沪农商行0.39%0.41%0.41%0.39%0.40%0.39%0.59%0.67%0.68%0.08%0.06%0.04%渝农商行------0.59%0.56%0.55%0.41%0.47%0.41%------资料来源:Wind,公司公告,国盛证券研注:存款市场规模来自央行披露的全国金融机构储蓄存款;理财市场规模来自中国理财网银行理财报告;非货币基金规模来自wind。P.9请仔细阅读本报告末页声明免责声明国盛证券有限责任公司(以下简称“本公司”)具有中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供本公司的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其

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