航空行业投资策略分析报告：长坡厚雪否极泰来

Presentation:

长坡厚雪，否极泰来

——航空行业年度策略报告ꢀ(From

AdversitytoProsperity:TheAviationIndustry'sAnnualStrategic31

Dec2023航空：长坡厚雪，否极泰来1.

回顾：周期启航一波三折，旺季兑现，航司业绩新高1）国内供需已超19年同期一成，地区恢复至19年八成，国际线恢复进程加快2）Q2人民币贬值拖累业绩表现3）Q3行业量价齐升，多航司创历史业绩新高4）供需变化决定价格-收益传导效果，建议持续关注客座率等指标2.

展望：长坡厚雪，航空大周期曲折启航但兑现指日可待1）美国航司恢复跟踪2）供给低速增长确定性大3）明年需求展望4）我国民航中长期内生需求增长潜力可观3.

建议：板块估值处于相对低位，关注逆向投资机会风险提示：人民币贬值、油价大幅上涨、疫情等自然灾害、经济下行Forfulldisclosureof

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2回顾：周期启航一波三折，旺季兑现，航司业绩新高第一节要点：•

国内供需已超19年同期一成，地区恢复至19年八成，国际线恢复进程加快•

Q2人民币贬值拖累业绩表现，油汇扰动业绩修复•

Q3行业量价齐升，多航司创历史业绩新高•

供需变化决定价格-收益传导效果，建议持续关注客座率等指标Forfulldisclosureof

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formationon

allHTIratedstocks,

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31.

23年1-10月总供需已接近19年同期九成23年1-10月，六家主要上市公司（国航、东航、南航、春秋、吉祥、海航，下同）总供给、需求同比上升120.4%/

157.1

%，客座率同比上升11.0个百分点至77.0

%。相比2019年同期，总供给、需求仍下降11.2

%/

17.7

%，客座率下降6.1个百分点。总供需已接近19年同期九成。图2023年1-10月航司生产数据（百万）客运2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0100,59964,14063.8146.00181.709.3pp261,856203,89677.9135,15189,70766.493.75127.2911.5pp201,044148,85574.082,92952,78063.6142.43182.0310.4pp107,15588,42182.542,44628,83567.9152.45206.6514.6pp39,61935,45789.526,42719,76774.849.9279.3740,02433,16382.919,56413,30868.0104.58149.1914.8pp897,171690,47577.0407,115268,53866.0120.4157.114.7pp11.0pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.196,05062,09264.6114.70146.009.4pp224,489174,17077.6128,95785,85366.674.08102.8711.0pp168,072125,25174.580,01951,20264.0110.04144.6210.5pp97,40082,00684.241,45928,33668.3134.93189.4015.8pp34,35931,09190.526,29219,68574.930.6857.9435,45729,91684.419,15613,07068.285.10128.8916.1pp765,995595,18177.7391,933260,24066.495.4128.715.6pp11.3pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.73,3221,46144.0962.601,535.0023.7pp35,43128,27279.85,9183,73363.1498.68657.4216.7pp29,26620,85471.32,6061,41454.21,023.161,375.2717.0pp9,4706,23365.8987499859.071,150.2415.3pp4,7363,88782.1103604,507.726,365.5123.6pp4,1272,89770.23642121,034.201,265.8211.9pp118,33086,03672.713,3007,37855.5789.71,066.117.2pp50.558.558.3可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.91,240571380.50607.7021.8pp1,9361,45375.1275120603.941,112.3831.5pp3,7062,75074.23011641,131.021,579.8219.8pp285183-----52447931221,596.272,063.2419.7pp4403504326913.161,236.0519.2pp12,8469,25872.1-----46.143.654.464.1-91.471.779.660.4-货运载运吨公里（百万）2,3333,209-27.36,5346,22051,9542,178-10.37657196.411031020.9318014325.2511,86712,570-5.62023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10

变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)客运可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0277,068226,46881.7-10.68-20.22-8.7pp261,856203,89677.9287,027238,29483.0-8.77-14.44-5.2pp201,044148,85574.0224,814185,23082.4-10.57-19.64-8.4pp107,15588,42182.5151,388127,12684.0-29.22-30.45-1.5pp39,61935,45789.536,06333,03191.69.867.3540,02433,16382.934,09929,30485.917.3713.17897,171690,47577.01,010,458839,45283.1-11.2-17.7-2.1pp-3.1pp-6.1pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.1172,948143,93383.219.246.12224,489174,17077.6196,310163,21983.114.356.71168,072125,25174.5143,009119,41983.517.534.8897,40082,00684.2110,69697,58788.2-12.01-15.97-4.0pp34,35931,09190.523,49421,76992.746.2542.8235,45729,91684.427,90824,28087.027.0523.21765,995595,18177.7674,365570,20684.613.64.4-9.2pp-5.6pp-9.0pp-2.2pp-2.6pp-6.9pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.794,31374,92179.4-62.57-68.1135,43128,27279.886,91772,21083.1-59.24-60.85-3.3pp29,26620,85471.376,24761,40580.5-61.62-66.04-9.3pp9,4706,23365.840,07929,07972.6-76.37-78.56-6.7pp4,7363,88782.111,33710,16489.7-58.22-61.76-7.6pp4,1272,89770.25,6464,58081.1-26.91-36.75118,33086,03672.7314,540252,35980.2-62.4-65.9-11.8pp-10.9pp-7.5pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.99,8067,61477.6-39.26-46.89-9.8pp1,9361,45375.13,8002,86575.4-49.06-49.27-0.3pp3,7062,75074.25,5574,40679.3-33.31-37.58-5.1pp285183613461-53.55-60.395244791,2331,09789.0-57.51-56.382.4pp440350546444-19.40-21.23-1.8pp12,8469,25872.121,55416,88778.4-40.4-45.264.175.2-11.1pp91.479.681.4-6.3pp货运载运吨公里2,3334,229-44.86,5346,20151,9542,380-17.97651,564-51.09103957.57180180-0.0911,86714,650-19.0资料

：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

risks,

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andtarget

priceformationonallHTIratedstocks,

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latestfullreport

onourwebsiteat41.国内供需已超19年同期，春秋吉祥优势明显国内线方面，

23年1-10月六家主要上市公司总供给、需求相比2019年同期各+13.6%/+4.4%，客座率为77.7%，较19年同期下降6.9个百分点。其中春秋、吉祥优势明显，其需求已分别超19年同期42.8%、23.2%，客座率分别为90.5%、84.4%，维持较高水平。国航、东航、南航需求分别超19年同期6.1%、6.7%、4.9%，虽增幅未及小航，但考虑量级恢复亦较为良好。图2023年1-10月航司生产数据（百万）客运2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~102022.1~10变化(%)可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0100,59964,14063.8146.00181.709.3pp261,856203,89677.9135,15189,70766.493.75127.2911.5pp201,044148,85574.082,92952,78063.6142.43182.0310.4pp107,15588,42182.542,44628,83567.9152.45206.6514.6pp39,61935,45789.526,42719,76774.849.9279.3740,02433,16382.919,56413,30868.0104.58149.1914.8pp897,171690,47577.0407,115268,53866.0120.4157.114.7pp11.0pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.196,05062,09264.6114.70146.009.4pp224,489174,17077.6128,95785,85366.674.08102.8711.0pp168,072125,25174.580,01951,20264.0110.04144.6210.5pp97,40082,00684.241,45928,33668.3134.93189.4015.8pp34,35931,09190.526,29219,68574.930.6857.9435,45729,91684.419,15613,07068.285.10128.8916.1pp765,995595,18177.7391,933260,24066.495.4128.715.6pp11.3pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.73,3221,46144.0962.601,535.0023.7pp35,43128,27279.85,9183,73363.1498.68657.4216.7pp29,26620,85471.32,6061,41454.21,023.161,375.2717.0pp9,4706,23365.8987499859.071,150.2415.3pp4,7363,88782.1103604,507.726,365.5123.6pp4,1272,89770.23642121,034.201,265.8211.9pp118,33086,03672.713,3007,37855.5789.71,066.117.2pp50.558.558.3可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.91,240571380.50607.7021.8pp1,9361,45375.1275120603.941,112.3831.5pp3,7062,75074.23011641,131.021,579.8219.8pp285183-----52447931221,596.272,063.2419.7pp4403504326913.161,236.0519.2pp12,8469,25872.1-----46.143.654.464.1-91.471.779.660.4-货运载运吨公里（百万）2,3333,209-27.36,5346,22051,9542,178-10.37657196.411031020.9318014325.2511,86712,570-5.62023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~102019.1~10变化(%)客运可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0277,068226,46881.7-10.68-20.22-8.7pp261,856203,89677.9287,027238,29483.0-8.77-14.44-5.2pp201,044148,85574.0224,814185,23082.4-10.57-19.64-8.4pp107,15588,42182.5151,388127,12684.0-29.22-30.45-1.5pp39,61935,45789.536,06333,03191.69.867.3540,02433,16382.934,09929,30485.917.3713.17897,171690,47577.01,010,458839,45283.1-11.2-17.7-2.1pp-3.1pp-6.1pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.1172,948143,93383.219.246.12224,489174,17077.6196,310163,21983.114.356.71168,072125,25174.5143,009119,41983.517.534.8897,40082,00684.2110,69697,58788.2-12.01-15.97-4.0pp34,35931,09190.523,49421,76992.746.2542.8235,45729,91684.427,90824,28087.027.0523.21765,995595,18177.7674,365570,20684.613.64.4-9.2pp-5.6pp-9.0pp-2.2pp-2.6pp-6.9pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.794,31374,92179.4-62.57-68.1135,43128,27279.886,91772,21083.1-59.24-60.85-3.3pp29,26620,85471.376,24761,40580.5-61.62-66.04-9.3pp9,4706,23365.840,07929,07972.6-76.37-78.56-6.7pp4,7363,88782.111,33710,16489.7-58.22-61.76-7.6pp4,1272,89770.25,6464,58081.1-26.91-36.75118,33086,03672.7314,540252,35980.2-62.4-65.9-11.8pp-10.9pp-7.5pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.99,8067,61477.6-39.26-46.89-9.8pp1,9361,45375.13,8002,86575.4-49.06-49.27-0.3pp3,7062,75074.25,5574,40679.3-33.31-37.58-5.1pp285183613461-53.55-60.395244791,2331,09789.0-57.51-56.382.4pp440350546444-19.40-21.23-1.8pp12,8469,25872.121,55416,88778.4-40.4-45.264.175.2-11.1pp91.479.681.4-6.3pp货运载运吨公里2,3334,229-44.86,5346,20151,9542,380-17.97651,564-51.09103957.57180180-0.0911,86714,650-19.0资料：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

risks,

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priceformationonallHTIratedstocks,

please

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onourwebsiteat51.

国际线复苏较为缓慢，仅为19年四成；地区线恢复快于国际线国际线方面，

23年1-10月六家主要上市公司总供给、需求相比2019年同期各-62.4%/-65.9%，客座率为72.7%，较19年同期下降7.5个百分点。疫后国际线复苏整体较为缓慢，主因地缘政治、海外机场地面保障不足等多方面影响；

23年1-10月地区线方面，六家主要上市公司总供需相比2019年同期各-40.4%/-45.2%，客座率为72.1%，较19年同期下降6.3个百分点，恢复程度优于国际线。图2023年1-10月航司生产数据（百万）客运2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2022.1~10变化(%)2023.1~102022.1~10变化(%)可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0100,59964,14063.8146.00181.709.3pp261,856203,89677.9135,15189,70766.493.75127.2911.5pp201,044148,85574.082,92952,78063.6142.43182.0310.4pp107,15588,42182.542,44628,83567.9152.45206.6514.6pp39,61935,45789.526,42719,76774.849.9279.3740,02433,16382.919,56413,30868.0104.58149.1914.8pp897,171690,47577.0407,115268,53866.0120.4157.114.7pp11.0pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.196,05062,09264.6114.70146.009.4pp224,489174,17077.6128,95785,85366.674.08102.8711.0pp168,072125,25174.580,01951,20264.0110.04144.6210.5pp97,40082,00684.241,45928,33668.3134.93189.4015.8pp34,35931,09190.526,29219,68574.930.6857.9435,45729,91684.419,15613,07068.285.10128.8916.1pp765,995595,18177.7391,933260,24066.495.4128.715.6pp11.3pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.73,3221,46144.0962.601,535.0023.7pp35,43128,27279.85,9183,73363.1498.68657.4216.7pp29,26620,85471.32,6061,41454.21,023.161,375.2717.0pp9,4706,23365.8987499859.071,150.2415.3pp4,7363,88782.1103604,507.726,365.5123.6pp4,1272,89770.23642121,034.201,265.8211.9pp118,33086,03672.713,3007,37855.5789.71,066.117.2pp50.558.558.3可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.91,240571380.50607.7021.8pp1,9361,45375.1275120603.941,112.3831.5pp3,7062,75074.23011641,131.021,579.8219.8pp285183-----52447931221,596.272,063.2419.7pp4403504326913.161,236.0519.2pp12,8469,25872.1-----46.143.654.464.1-91.471.779.660.4-货运载运吨公里（百万）2,3333,209-27.36,5346,22051,9542,178-10.37657196.411031020.9318014325.2511,86712,570-5.62023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~10

2019.1~10变化(%)2023.1~102019.1~10变化(%)客运可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内247,473180,68373.0277,068226,46881.7-10.68-20.22-8.7pp261,856203,89677.9287,027238,29483.0-8.77-14.44-5.2pp201,044148,85574.0224,814185,23082.4-10.57-19.64-8.4pp107,15588,42182.5151,388127,12684.0-29.22-30.45-1.5pp39,61935,45789.536,06333,03191.69.867.3540,02433,16382.934,09929,30485.917.3713.17897,171690,47577.01,010,458839,45283.1-11.2-17.7-2.1pp-3.1pp-6.1pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际206,219152,74774.1172,948143,93383.219.246.12224,489174,17077.6196,310163,21983.114.356.71168,072125,25174.5143,009119,41983.517.534.8897,40082,00684.2110,69697,58788.2-12.01-15.97-4.0pp34,35931,09190.523,49421,76992.746.2542.8235,45729,91684.427,90824,28087.027.0523.21765,995595,18177.7674,365570,20684.613.64.4-9.2pp-5.6pp-9.0pp-2.2pp-2.6pp-6.9pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区35,29923,89367.794,31374,92179.4-62.57-68.1135,43128,27279.886,91772,21083.1-59.24-60.85-3.3pp29,26620,85471.376,24761,40580.5-61.62-66.04-9.3pp9,4706,23365.840,07929,07972.6-76.37-78.56-6.7pp4,7363,88782.111,33710,16489.7-58.22-61.76-7.6pp4,1272,89770.25,6464,58081.1-26.91-36.75118,33086,03672.7314,540252,35980.2-62.4-65.9-11.8pp-10.9pp-7.5pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运5,9564,04367.99,8067,61477.6-39.26-46.89-9.8pp1,9361,45375.13,8002,86575.4-49.06-49.27-0.3pp3,7062,75074.25,5574,40679.3-33.31-37.58-5.1pp285183613461-53.55-60.395244791,2331,09789.0-57.51-56.382.4pp440350546444-19.40-21.23-1.8pp12,8469,25872.121,55416,88778.4-40.4-45.264.175.2-11.1pp91.479.681.4-6.3pp货运载运吨公里2,3334,229-44.86,5346,20151,9542,380-17.97651,564-51.09103957.57180180-0.0911,86714,650-19.0资料：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

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10月生产数据出炉，供需恢复更进一步23年航司生产经营稳定恢复，1月到10月，六家主要上市公司总供给/需求与2019年同期的差距从30.3%/37.7%缩小为5.6%/8.9%。客座率从1月的72.6%上升至10月的79.7%，其中10月客座率环比上升2.2个百分点，与2019年同期下降2.8个百分点。图

六家上市航司合计供给需求单月同比增速图

六家上市航司合计单月客座率(yoy%)0(yoy%)901月

2月

3月

4月

5月

6月

7月

8月

9月

10月11月12月8580757065605550-60-120ASK（2021vs2019）ASK（2022vs2019）ASK（2023vs2019）RPK（2021vs2019）RPK（2022vs2019）RPK（2023vs2019）2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年资料：

Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

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国内线恢复稳健，地区线恢复至19年同期八成国内线方面，10月六家主要上市公司总供给、需求对比2019年同期各+11.6%/+7.1

%，客座率较19年同期下降3.4个百分点至81.6

%，10月受“黄金周”拉动，国内恢复稳健。地区线方面，10月六家主要上市公司总供给、需求恢复至2019年同期的80.3%/81.4%，客座率为70.7%，较19年同期上升1.0个百分点。图2023年10月航司生产数据国航南航东航海航春秋吉祥六家上市航空合计（百万）客运2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内26,82820,58476.77,7114,95964.3247.90315.1012.4pp28,65323,25181.19,7166,50767.0194.89257.3014.2pp22,57617,40177.16,5714,32565.8243.58302.3011.2pp10,7829,01983.62,4181,47861.1345.96510.2622.5pp3,9983,60690.22,1111,60376.089.44124.9714.2pp4,0503,39883.91,6821,10865.9140.82206.5918.0pp96,88777,25879.730,20919,98166.1220.7286.713.6pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际20,64116,27378.87,0214,65266.3194.00249.8012.6pp23,14418,96481.98,8645,97067.4161.11217.6614.6pp17,13413,51278.96,1544,07466.2178.41231.6512.7pp9,4628,18586.52,2161,39863.1327.08485.4323.4pp3,5063,21991.82,0941,59376.167.42102.0715.7pp3,4843,02086.71,6191,07566.4115.21180.8020.2pp77,37263,17481.627,96718,76367.1176.6236.714.6pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区5,5033,84569.9531234936.501,545.4025.9pp5,2654,11578.2793513563.53702.1613.5pp4,9533,53671.43752311,220.211,432.679.9pp1,27880720280532.46912.6523.7pp4383371592,842.613,565.4815.2pp5153395329878.771,071.4510.8pp17,95212,98072.31,9691,09555.6811.71,085.016.7pp44.064.761.563.239.476.961.765.855.0可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运68446616172324.40548.1023.5pp2441715924312.50601.8729.0pp48935241201,0791,6404126---5450113,853.616,848.8640.2pp5139104392.93877.9038.6pp1,5631,10570.7------68.144.670.341.372.048.823.2pp63.4--93.353.177.839.2-货运载运吨公里（百万）32624732.17756242426723613.19336157.8912119.582210129.621,4961,16428.52023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)客运可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内26,82820,58476.727,92522,89382.0-3.93-10.09-5.3pp28,65323,25181.129,36324,41483.1-2.42-4.7622,57617,40177.123,09818,66780.8-2.26-6.7910,7829,01983.614,98812,36082.5-28.06-27.031.2pp3,9983,60690.23,8493,46290.03.874.164,0503,39883.93,4632,97786.016.9614.1696,88777,25879.7102,68684,77382.6-5.6-8.9-2.0pp-3.7pp0.3pp-2.1pp-2.8pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际20,64116,27378.817,91115,12084.415.247.6323,14418,96481.920,48917,23684.112.9610.0217,13413,51278.914,62612,23683.717.1510.439,4628,18586.510,9739,58187.3-13.76-14.57-0.8pp3,5063,21991.82,4582,27392.542.6541.653,4843,02086.72,8502,52188.522.2519.7777,37263,17481.669,30758,96785.111.67.1-5.6pp-2.2pp-4.8pp-0.6pp-1.8pp-3.4pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区5,5033,84569.99,1087,15078.5-39.58-46.23-8.6pp5,2654,11578.28,5606,97081.4-38.49-40.96-3.3pp4,9533,53671.47,9796,08176.2-37.92-41.85-4.8pp1,2788073,9592,74469.3-67.71-70.58-6.2pp4383371,2661,08585.7-65.41-68.97-8.8pp515339562417-8.20-18.72-8.5pp17,95212,98072.331,43324,44877.8-42.9-46.963.276.965.874.3-5.5pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运684466906623-24.51-25.26-0.7pp244171314207-22.25-17.254.2pp489352494350-1.030.6541265735-26.69-24.741.6pp5450125105-56.95-51.909.8pp51395138-1.412.801,5631,10570.71,9471,35869.7-19.7-18.61.0pp68.168.870.366.172.070.81.2pp63.461.893.383.577.874.63.2pp货运载运吨公里326453-28.077564720267285-6.393174-46.3812122.5322220.961,4961,592-6.1资料

：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

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国际线恢复五成，航司正在增加运力国际线方面，10月六家主要上市公司总供给、需求对比2019年同期各下降42.9%/46.9%，9月供需较19年各下降45.2%/48.0%，环比持续恢复；10月客座率为72.3%，较19年同期下降5.5个百分点。换季后，航司正在增加国际线运力，后期或许国际线利好政策形成合力，加速国际线恢复。图2023年10月航司生产数据国航南航东航海航春秋吉祥六家上市航空合计（百万）客运2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)2023.10

2022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)2023.102022.10变化(%)可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内26,82820,58476.77,7114,95964.3247.90315.1012.4pp28,65323,25181.19,7166,50767.0194.89257.3014.2pp22,57617,40177.16,5714,32565.8243.58302.3011.2pp10,7829,01983.62,4181,47861.1345.96510.2622.5pp3,9983,60690.22,1111,60376.089.44124.9714.2pp4,0503,39883.91,6821,10865.9140.82206.5918.0pp96,88777,25879.730,20919,98166.1220.7286.713.6pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际20,64116,27378.87,0214,65266.3194.00249.8012.6pp23,14418,96481.98,8645,97067.4161.11217.6614.6pp17,13413,51278.96,1544,07466.2178.41231.6512.7pp9,4628,18586.52,2161,39863.1327.08485.4323.4pp3,5063,21991.82,0941,59376.167.42102.0715.7pp3,4843,02086.71,6191,07566.4115.21180.8020.2pp77,37263,17481.627,96718,76367.1176.6236.714.6pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区5,5033,84569.9531234936.501,545.4025.9pp5,2654,11578.2793513563.53702.1613.5pp4,9533,53671.43752311,220.211,432.679.9pp1,27880720280532.46912.6523.7pp4383371592,842.613,565.4815.2pp5153395329878.771,071.4510.8pp17,95212,98072.31,9691,09555.6811.71,085.016.7pp44.064.761.563.239.476.961.765.855.0可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运68446616172324.40548.1023.5pp2441715924312.50601.8729.0pp48935241201,0791,6404126---5450113,853.616,848.8640.2pp5139104392.93877.9038.6pp1,5631,10570.7------68.144.670.341.372.048.823.2pp63.4--93.353.177.839.2-货运载运吨公里（百万）32624732.17756242426723613.19336157.8912119.582210129.621,4961,16428.52023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)2023.10

2019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)2023.102019.10变化(%)客运可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国内26,82820,58476.727,92522,89382.0-3.93-10.09-5.3pp28,65323,25181.129,36324,41483.1-2.42-4.7622,57617,40177.123,09818,66780.8-2.26-6.7910,7829,01983.614,98812,36082.5-28.06-27.031.2pp3,9983,60690.23,8493,46290.03.874.164,0503,39883.93,4632,97786.016.9614.1696,88777,25879.7102,68684,77382.6-5.6-8.9-2.0pp-3.7pp0.3pp-2.1pp-2.8pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）国际20,64116,27378.817,91115,12084.415.247.6323,14418,96481.920,48917,23684.112.9610.0217,13413,51278.914,62612,23683.717.1510.439,4628,18586.510,9739,58187.3-13.76-14.57-0.8pp3,5063,21991.82,4582,27392.542.6541.653,4843,02086.72,8502,52188.522.2519.7777,37263,17481.669,30758,96785.111.67.1-5.6pp-2.2pp-4.8pp-0.6pp-1.8pp-3.4pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）地区5,5033,84569.99,1087,15078.5-39.58-46.23-8.6pp5,2654,11578.28,5606,97081.4-38.49-40.96-3.3pp4,9533,53671.47,9796,08176.2-37.92-41.85-4.8pp1,2788073,9592,74469.3-67.71-70.58-6.2pp4383371,2661,08585.7-65.41-68.97-8.8pp515339562417-8.20-18.72-8.5pp17,95212,98072.331,43324,44877.8-42.9-46.963.276.965.874.3-5.5pp可用座位公里收入客公里客座率（%）货运684466906623-24.51-25.26-0.7pp244171314207-22.25-17.254.2pp489352494350-1.030.6541265735-26.69-24.741.6pp5450125105-56.95-51.909.8pp51395138-1.412.801,5631,10570.71,9471,35869.7-19.7-18.61.0pp68.168.870.366.172.070.81.2pp63.461.893.383.577.874.63.2pp货运载运吨公里326453-28.077564720267285-6.393174-46.3812122.5322220.961,4961,592-6.1资料：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTIForfulldisclosureof

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Q2人民币贬值拖累业绩，油汇扰动业绩修复Q2人民币贬值带来大额汇兑损失拖累业绩但油价相对平稳；Q3人民币震荡升值。年初至今油价整体平稳，同比有降，利好航司利润释放；Q4以来油价走高带来一定压力。表

油价汇率表19Q1

19Q2

19Q3

19Q4

20Q1

20Q2

20Q3

20Q4

21Q1

21Q2

21Q3

21Q4

22Q1

22Q2

22Q3

22Q4

23Q1

23Q2

23Q3航空煤油出厂价（元/吨）环比增长率4756

5069

4884

4956

4732

2144

2833

2679

3522

4111

4518

5151

5462

7933

8736

7910

69466073

6525-19.9%

6.6%

-3.6%

1.5%

-4.5%

-54.7%

32.1%

-5.4%

31.5%

16.7%

9.9%

14.0%

6.0%

45.2%

10.1%

-9.5%

-12.2%

-12.6%

7.4%期间汇率均值(USD/RMB)6.756.82

6.99

7.03

6.977.086.92

6.62

6.486.46

6.47

6.39

6.35

6.616.83

7.096.847.017.17升贬值-1.9%

2.1%

2.9%

-1.4%

1.6%

-0.1%

-3.8%

-4.2%

0.7%

-1.7%

0.4%

-1.7%

-0.4%

5.7%

5.8%

-1.9%

-1.3%

-5.2%

0.6%图

油价图

汇率2019202120222023USD/RMB）2019202120222023（美元/（桶）7.47.27.06.86.66.46.26.05.81401201008060402001月

2月

3月

4月

5月

6月

7月

8月

9月

10月11月12月：Wind，HTI月月

月月月月月月月月月月资料Forfulldisclosureof

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onourwebsiteat103.Q3行业量价齐升，多航司创历史业绩新高在暑运旺季需求快速释放、油汇边际变化稳定等多因素作用下，国内航司Q3业绩大幅改善，多航司创下历史新高。Q3国航、东航、南航、春秋、吉祥、海航营收较19年同期各+21%/+4%/+9%/+38%/+33%/-11%（海航涉及天津航空并表口径问题），归母净利润分别为42/36/42/18/10/25亿元，较19年同期各+17%/+50%/+76%/+113%/+63%/+2201%，若排除海航21Q4债务重组损益异常在外，东航、海航、春秋、吉祥实际均已实现单季度历史最佳业绩。图

23年前三季度航司营收图

23年前三季度航司归母净利润（亿元）1Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q23（亿元）50403020100600500400300200100042.4241.9536.42476.61458.6424.9518.39377.75340.55361.1310.71345.454.833.561.651.58271.64222.61250.68(1.03)中国国航

中国东航

南方航空

春秋航空

吉祥航空

海航控股(10)(20)(30)(40)(50)(5.24)191.02144.88(9.77)131.48(17.67)(18.98)(24.46)65.4960.7238.6341.68(29.26)44.4248.89(38.03)中国国航

中国东航

南方航空

春秋航空

吉祥航空

海航控股资料：Wind，HTIForfulldisclosureof

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历史新高业绩背后是量价齐升综合作用我们认为Q3航司创造历史新高业绩背后是量价齐升综合作用。产量方面受国内航线主导恢复，航司整体RPK较19年同期差距均缩小。价格方面，航司提价效果明显，单位座公里营收较19年均有增长，海航、春秋、吉祥单位座公里毛利分别上升75.8%/45.7%/22.7%。而三大航单位成本上升较多主因国际线未恢复、宽体机利用率较低所致，因此单位毛利未及19年水平，未来存在较大改善空间。表

2023年Q3航司生产数据ASK（百万）2019Q3

2023Q3

vs2019RPK（百万）客座率2019Q3

2023Q3

vs201970440.68

64630.20

-8.25%57881.16

53520.14

-7.53%76669.23

71523.11

-6.71%40098.39

31357.05

-21.80%10496.18

12462.27

18.73%9269.37

11388.58

22.86%2019Q3

2023Q3

vs201982.39%

75.44%

-8.43%82.41%

76.61%

-7.04%83.66%

80.22%

-4.11%84.95%

85.31%91.94%

91.80%

-0.16%86.97%

86.29%

-0.78%中国国航

85496.10

85668.60

0.20%中国东航

70238.69

69862.77

-0.54%南方航空

91646.58

89158.69

-2.71%海航控股

47201.61

36756.37

-22.13%春秋航空

11416.05

13576.01

18.92%吉祥航空

10658.04

13197.92

23.83%0.42%表

2023年Q3航司单位收入、成本、毛利单位座公里成本（元）单位座公里营收（元）2019Q3

2023Q3

vs2019单位座公里毛利（元）2019Q3

2023Q3

vs20192019Q3

2023Q3

vs2019中国国航中国东航南方航空海航控股春秋航空吉祥航空0.380.390.380.390.290.350.450.430.440.410.310.3615.86%10.31%15.54%4.63%5.81%2.06%0.510.490.480.450.390.460.540.520.530.520.450.504.94%4.89%12.04%14.39%15.65%7.01%0.130.100.090.060.100.110.090.080.090.110.140.14-28.41%-16.25%-2.22%75.80%45.70%22.65%资料：Wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数