WTO数字贸易促进发展

DigitalTrade

forDevelopment

Disclaimer

PreparedbythestaffsoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),theUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD),TheWorldBank,andtheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).FortheIMF,theviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeconstruedastheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,membergovernments,oranyotherentitymentionedherein.FortheOECD,thereportispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD,andtheopinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialviewsoftheMembercountriesoftheOECD.FortheUnitedNations,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheUnitedNationsoritsofficialsorMemberStates.ForTheWorldBank,thefindings,interpretations,andconclusions

expressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.FortheWTO,theviewsexpressed,andthetermsandillustrationsusedinthispublicationarewithoutprejudicetoWTOmembers’rightsandobligations,anddonotconstituteorimplyanexpressionofopinionbytheWTOSecretariatconcerningthestatusorboundariesofanyterritory.Thisdocument,aswellasanydataandanymapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.ThenamesofcountriesandterritoriesusedinthisjointpublicationfollowthepracticeoftheWTO.FortheOECD,pleaserefertotheOECD’stermsandconditionsforspecificterritorialdisclaimersapplicabletothisjointpublication(

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©2023.TheInternationalMonetaryFund,

theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationand

Development,theUnitedNations,TheWorldBank

andtheWorldTradeOrganization.

WTOISBN978-92-870-7544-4(print)

WTOISBN978-92-870-7543-7(PDF)

1

Contents

Executivesummary3

A.Introduction5

B.Unleashingthepotentialofdigitaltechnologies:growth,tradeanddevelopmentopportunities7

1.Digitalizationchangesthewayeconomiesgrow

8

2.Tradeisincreasinglydigital,butsomedevelopingeconomiesarestrugglingtobepartof

thistransformation

10

3.Digitaltradeprovidesopportunitiestolaunchnewproducts

14

4.Digitaltradecancontributetomakingtrademoreinclusive

17

(a)Digitaltradecancreatenewopportunitiesfordevelopingeconomies,includingLDCs17

(b)DigitaltradecanopenupopportunitiesforgreaterparticipationofMSMEs,

womenandyoungpeopleininternationaltrade

19

C.Roleofdomesticpoliciesandinternationalcooperationinsupportingdigitaltrade21

1.Improvingdigitalconnectivity,ICTinfrastructureanddigitalskillsisessentialtopromote

digitaltrade

22

(a)Investmentininfrastructurealongwithpoliciestoensurereliableandaffordable

internetaccessiskey

22

(b)Policiestosupportthedevelopmentofdigitalskillsofconsumersandfirmsarecrucial

tofacilitatedigitaltrade

24

(c)Internationalcooperationcanhelpbridgethedigitalgapbyenhancingdigitalconnectivity

andskills

25

2.Anenablinglegalandregulatoryenvironmentcoupledwithproactivetradepoliciesareessential

componentsoftheecosystemfordigitaltrade26

(a)Arobustdomesticregulatoryframeworkiscrucialforfosteringdigitaltrade26

(b)Whiledigitaltradeisincreasinglybeingdisciplinedinbilateralandregionaltrade

agreements,theparticipationofdevelopingeconomiesinsuchagreementsremainslimited26(c)WTOrulesalreadycoverdigitaltrade,butsomeoftheserulesmayneedtobeupdatedto

adequatelyaddresstheevolvingnatureofdigitaltrade28(d)TheWTOmoratoriumoncustomsdutiesonelectronictransmissionswillbeakeyissue

attheupcomingWTO13thMinisterialConference(MC13)tobeheldinFebruary202431

(e)DigitallyorderedgoodstradecanbenefitfromthefullimplementationoftheWTOTrade

FacilitationAgreement(TFA)

33

3.Someregulatoryissuesintherealmofdigitaltradecouldbenefitfromdeeperinternational

cooperation

36

(a)Cross-borderdataflowsarepivotaltotheexpansionandefficiencyofdigitaltrade36

(b)Competitionpolicyisessentialtomaintainopenanddynamicdigitalmarkets38

(c)Enhancedonlineconsumerprotectionhelpsbuildtrustindigitalmarkets

39

D.Conclusions43

AnnexA:LiteraturereviewonstudiesanalysingthecustomsrevenueimplicationsoftheWTO

moratoriumoncustomsdutiesonelectronictransmissions

45

References47

DIGITALTRADEFORDEVELOPMENT

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Acknowledgment

ThisreportwasapprovedbyKennethKang(DeputyDirector,Strategy,PolicyandReviewDepartment,IMF),MarionJansen(Director,TradeandAgricultureDirectorate,OECD),ShamikaSirimanne(Director,DivisiononTechnologyandLogistics,UNCTAD),MonaHaddad(GlobalDirector,Trade,InvestmentandCompetitiveness,TheWorldBank),RalphOssa(Director,EconomicResearchandStatisticsDivision,WTO).ItspreparationwascoordinatedbyAdamJakubikandMicheleRuta,undertheguidanceofMartinSommer(IMF);JuliaNielsonandJavierLopez-Gonzalez(OECD);ShamikaSirimanne,TorbjörnFredriksson,MihoShirotori,andTeresaMoreira(UNCTAD);SebastienDessus(TheWorldBank);MarcBacchetta,José-AntonioMonteiroandRobertaPiermartini(WTO).TheauthorsofthereportareTiborHanappi,AdamJakubikandMichele

Ruta(IMF);AndreaAndrenelli,JavierLopez-GonzalezandJuliaNielson(OECD);TorbjörnFredriksson,ArnauIzaguerriVila,DanielKer,TeresaMoreira,MihoShirotori,andAkariYamamoto(UNCTAD);MartínMolinuevoandJavierSuarez(TheWorldBank);andMarcBacchetta,AntoniaCarzaniga,BarbaraD’Andrea,José-AntonioMonteiroandRobertaPiermartini(WTO).UsefulcommentswerereceivedfromIMFDepartments;CarolinaAbate,FrancescaCasalini,AudreyPlonkandSilviaSorescu(OECD);PoulHansenandDongWu(UNCTAD);YukiAraki,JieunChoi,TuanMinhLe,PierreSauvé,AlexandreaSchwindandGauteSolheim(TheWorldBank);EmmanuelleGanneandZainabMchumo(WTO).ResearchassistancewasprovidedbyTinotendaMataire(WTO).SergeMarin-PacheandAnthonyMartin(WTO)managedtheproductionofthereport.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

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Executivesummary

Thisreportexplorestheopportunitiesandchallengesfordevelopingeconomiesarisingfromdigitaltradeanddiscussestheroleofinternationalcooperationintacklingtheseopportunitiesandchallenges.Thereportconsiderspolicyactionsintheareasofdigitalinfrastructure,skills,internationalsupportforcapacitydevelopment,andtheregulatoryandpolicyenvironment.SpecificpolicyissuesincludetheWTOe-commercemoratorium,regulationofcross-borderdataflows,competitionpoliciesandconsumerprotection.

Thedigitaltransformationishavingprofoundeffects.

Digitalizationoftheeconomyisradicallytransformingthewaywecommunicate,produce,governandtradewithoneanother.Digitaltechnologiesareenginesofgrowth,increaseproductivitybyreducingproductioncosts,fostereconomiesofscaleandmoreefficientfinancing,promoteinnovationbyfosteringexchangeofideasandexpandanddiversifyexportbasketsbyreducinginternationaltradecosts.Digitalizationcanalsopromoteresiliencetoshocks,awiderservices-ledgrowthmodelandmoreinclusivegrowth.Atthesametime,bytransformingexistingprocessesandbusinessmodels,digitalizationcreatesopportunitiesandrisks,withwinnersandlosersbothacrossandwithineconomies.

Cross-borderdigitallydeliveredservicesarethefastestgrowingsegmentofinternationaltrade,withnewplayersemerging.Digitaltradereferstoallinternationaltradedigitallyorderedand/ordigitallydelivered.AccordingtoWTOestimates,digitallydeliveredserviceshaverecordedanalmostfourfoldincreaseinvaluesince2005,rising8.1percentonaverageperyearovertheperiod2005-22,outpacinggoods(5.6percent)andotherservicesexports(4.2percent)toaccountfor54percentoftotalservicesexports.Withnewwaysofobtainingcomparativeadvantage,opportunitiesarisefornewplayerstoengageinglobalmarkets,includingforfarmerstoconnecttomarketsandforsmallbusinesstotradeviaparcels.Whiledevelopedeconomiesareresponsibleforthemajorityofdigitallydeliveredservicesexports,theyhavealsogrowninmostdevelopingeconomies,includinginAfrica,whereGhana,MoroccoandSouthAfricahaveseenthelargestgrowth.Thatsaid,growthinleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)continuestolagbehindandAfricacontributedlessthan1percentofdigitallydeliveredservicesexportsgloballyin2022.DuringtheCOVID-19pandemic,thegapbetweenthemostandtheleastadvancedeconomiesintermsofexportsofsuchserviceswidenedfurther.

Someeconomiesaremorepreparedtoseizeopportunitiesandtakeonchallengesassociatedwithdigitaltrade,highlightingtheimportanceofdigitalinfrastructureandskills.Ingeneral,toengageinandbenefitfromdigitaltrade,consumersandbusinessesmusthaveaccesstofast,affordableandreliabledigitalinfrastructureaswellastheskillsandcapabilitiestousedigitaltechnologiesforproductiveactivities.Today,anestimated5.4billionpeople,or67percentoftheworld’spopulation,areabletoconnecttotheinternet,doublingthenumberofpeopleconnectedonly10yearsago.Yet,2.6billionpeople,orone-thirdoftheglobalpopulationremainsoffline,mostoftheminlow-andlower-middleincomeeconomies.Hightariffsonimportsofinformationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT)equipment,restrictionsonimportsofenablingservicesandlimitedcompetitionintelecommunicationsservicescanreduceaffordabilityandslowdowntheadoptionofthesetechnologies.

Governmentsneedtoputinplacearegulatoryandpolicyenvironmentthatnotonlyfacilitatestradeinadigitalworldbutalsogeneratesinclusiveandsustainableoutcomes.Policiesandregulationsshouldenableremotetransactions,enhancetrustindigitalmarkets,promoteaffordableaccessandsupportcross-borderdeliveries.Apredictableandinteroperableenvironmentthatprovidesappropriatesafeguardsrelatedtoonlinetransactions(suchasdataprivacy,consumerprotectionandcybersecurity)isessentialforthedigitaltradeecosystemtothrive.Lawsandregulationsthatensureeasyentryandexitoffirms,effectivecompetitionandanopentraderegimepromotehealthycompetition.Estimatessuggestthatimproveddigitalconnectivityistwiceaseffectiveatloweringtradecostsinmiddle-andlow-incomeeconomieswithanenablingregulatoryenvironmentfordigitallydeliveredservices.

Bridgingthedigitaldivideandstrengtheningthereadinessofdevelopingeconomiestobenefitfromdigitaltraderequiresbothdomesticandinternationalmobilization.Moreinternationalfinancialandtechnicalsupportisneededtobuildthecapacityofdevelopingeconomiestoimproveconnectivityandskillsandtoregulateinareasrelevanttodigitaltrade.InitiativesliketheWTO-ledAidforTrade,theUNCTAD-ledeTradeforallandtheWorldBank-ledDigitalAdvisoryandTradeAssistance(DATA)Fundcanhelp.DigitalconnectivityisoneofthethreepriorityareasintheWTOAidforTradeworkprogrammefor2023-24,andrecentAidforTradecommitmentstotheICTsectorstandatUS$2.16billionin2021-22.

Internationalcooperationincreasinglycoversrulesondigitaltrade.Todate,progressongovernanceofdigitaltrade-relatedissueshaslargelytakenplaceinthecontextofbilateralandregionaltradeagreements(RTAs).Bytheendof2022,therewere116agreementswithdigitaltradeprovisions,representing33percentofallexistingRTAs.Overall,since2001,44percentofagreementssignedcontainatleastone

DIGITALTRADEFORDEVELOPMENT

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digitaltradeore-commerceprovision.However,onlyfewLDCsarepartytoRTAswithprovisionsondigitaltrade.TheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea(AfCFTA)is,formanycountries,thefirstexperiencenegotiatingprovisionsondigitaltrade.

Since1998,theWTOWorkProgrammeonE-commercehasconsideredhowWTOrulesapplytoe-commerce.

E-commerceiswidelyseenaswithinthescopeofexistingWTOagreements.Atthesametime,amajorityofWTOmembersconsiderthat,torespondtothechangingnatureoftradeandtofacilitatee-commercerelatedactivities,existingWTOrulesrelatedtodigitaltradeneedtobeupdatedandcomplementedbynewones.UndertheJointStatementInitiative(JSI)onE-commerce,90WTOmembers,includingmanydevelopingeconomiesandfiveLDCs,arenegotiatingspecificrulesondigital-trade-relatedissues.

TheWTOmoratoriumontheimpositionofcustomsdutiesonelectronictransmissionsisattractingattentionintherun-uptotheWTO's13thMinisterialConference(MC13).ItistheonlyWTOprovisionthatappliesexplicitlytoe-commerceandhasbeeninplacesince1998.Additionalcommitmentsnottoimposecustomsdutiesonelectronictransmissionshavealsobeenincludedin88RTAsinvolvingatotalof87economies,ofwhich33aredevelopingeconomies.InJune2022atMC12membersagreedtofurtherextendthemoratorium"untilthe13thMinisterialConferenceor31March2024,whicheverisearlier".Atthismeeting,membersalsoagreedto“intensifydiscussions[...]includingonthe“scope,definitionandimpact”ofthemoratorium".

WTOmembers'viewsabouttherenewalofthemoratoriumoncustomsdutiesdiffer.Proponentsofthemoratoriumemphasisethatthecommitmenthassupportedastableandpredictableenvironmentfordigitaltradetothrive.However,otherWTOmembershaveexpressedconcernsaboutthelackofclarityregardingthescopeofthemoratoriumandthedefinitionofelectronictransmissionsaswellastheopportunitycostsofthemoratorium.Theseincludethepotentialforegonecustomsrevenueandthedesiretomaintainpolicyspaceinlightoftheuncertaintyassociatedwithrapidtechnologicalchange.Theyhavealsoexpressedconcernsabouttheimpactofthemoratoriumontheirabilitytousecustomsdutiesforindustrialpolicypurposes.

Theimpactofthemoratoriumongovernmentrevenueisestimatedtobebelow0.33percentofoverallgovernmentrevenueonaverage.Valueaddedtax(VAT)representsanotherwaytocollectrevenuefromdigitaltradethatdoesnotdiscriminatebetweendomesticallysuppliedandimportedproducts,ismoreuniformacrossdifferentproducts,anddoesnotimposeataxburdenonintermediateinputsusedbydomesticproducers.Themoratoriumcanimpacttheamountofcustomsrevenuecollectedbygovernments.Uncertaintiesexistaboutitsscopeandthedefinitionofelectronictransmissions,butexistingestimatesof

thepotentialrevenuethatcouldbecollectedusingtariffsonelectronictransmissionsvarybetween0.01percentand0.33percentofoverallgovernmentrevenueonaveragefordevelopingeconomies,withhigherlossesforahandfulofeconomies.WhiletariffsandVATarenotmutuallyexclusive,recentevidenceshowsthatformosteconomies,VATcouldgeneratehigherrevenuefromtaxingelectronictransmissionswithappropriateinvestmentinthecapacityoftaxadministrations.Tariffsonelectronictransmissionsmightalsoimpactcompetitivenessandparticipationoffirmsintrade,especiallyMSMEsandwomenownedtraders.

Beyondtraderules,otherregulatoryissuesalsorequireglobalsolutions:cross-borderdataflows,competitionandconsumerprotection.

.Agrowingnumberofmeasuresconditionthecross-borderdataflowsthatunderpindigitaltrade.Butdeeperandinclusiveinternationalcooperationisneededforabalancedapproachtoglobaldatagovernance,whichensuresdatacanflowacrossbordersasfreelyaspossiblewhileaddressingpublicpolicyconcerns.

.Thefeaturesofdigitalmarkets,includingnetworkeffects,economiesofscaleandscope,giverisetoconcernsaboutmarketpowerandanti-competitivebehaviours.Governmentsaroundtheworldareseekingwaystoeffectivelyregulatesuchbehavioursbyadaptingtheirlegislativeframeworksandstrengtheningenforcementagainstanticompetitivepractices.Effortsshouldcontinuetoencourageexchangeofinformationandknowledge,collectiveresponseswhenfeasible,aswellasinnovativeapproachesandconsensus-buildingtopromotecompetitionindigitalmarkets.

.Thelackofappropriatepoliciesandregulationsonconsumerprotectionandresourcesforeffectiveenforcementhindertrustinthedigitaleconomy.

Enactingadequatelegalframeworks,enforcingregulationsandaddressingcross-borderdisputesareessentialtocreateasaferandmoreinclusivedigitalenvironmentforconsumers.Keychallengesincludeinsufficientinformationandeducationofonlineconsumers,misleadingadvertising,unsafeproductsandpaymentssystems,unauthorizedcollectionanduseofcustomers'personaldata,andinadequatedisputeresolutionandredressmechanisms.

Internationalcooperationiscriticaltoensureinclusivebenefitsofdigitaltrade.Globalcooperationisneededtoensurethatsmallbusinesses,womenandyoungentrepreneursandconsumersinalleconomiescanreapthebenefitsofdigitaltrade.Thisisparticularlychallengingastheissuesinvolvedfallwithinthepurviewofmultiplegovernmentministries,whichcallsforawhole-of-governmentapproach.Internationalorganizationscansupporttheseeffortsbystrengtheningtheircooperationwithgovernments,stakeholders,andeachother,andthisjointreportisastepinthisdirection.

A

Introduction

DIGITALTRADEFORDEVELOPMENT

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Tradehasplayedanimportantroleinfosteringeconomicgrowth,promotingincomeconvergenceamongeconomiesandliftinghundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofpoverty(WorldBankandWTO,2015).Theexpansionofglobalvaluechains(GVCs)(ADB,2021)hasbeenadrivingfactorbehindthisgrowth.Somepeople,firmsandeconomieshave,however,missedoutandnotfullybenefitedfromtradeopportunities.

Followingthegreatfinancialcrisis,thegrowthofGVCshasstagnated.TheriseofautomationandthebacklashagainstglobalizationhavefurtherfuelleduncertaintiesregardingthefutureviabilityofthisGVC-ledmodelofindustrialization.AccordingtoWTOprojections,thevolumeofworldmerchandisetradeisexpectedtogrowby0.8percentin2023,markingadeclinefromthe3percentgrowthestimatedfor2022(WTO,2023b).Withsubduedtradegrowthandweakeconomicgrowth,advancesinlivingstandardsandprospectsforindividualsworldwidecouldbehampered.

Digitaltrade,statisticallydefinedas“allinternationaltradetransactionsthataredigitallyorderedand/ordigitallydelivered”(WTO,OECD,IMF,andUNCTAD,2023),1hasemergedasadynamicandfast-growingareaoftheglobaleconomy.ThevalueofglobalexportsofdigitallydeliveredservicesreachedUS$3.82trillionin2022,capturinganestimated54percentshareoftotalglobalservicesexportsandaccountingfor12percentoftotalgoodsandservicesexports.Between2005and2022,theestimatedaverageannualgrowthrateofdigitallydeliveredservicesreached8.1percent,outpacingthoseofgoodsexports(5.6percent)andotherservicesexports(4.2percent)(WTO,2023b).

Alongsidetradeindigitallydeliveredservices,digitallyorderedtradeisalsoanimportantcomponentofdigitaltrade.Digitalorderingisanincreasinglyvitalwayforproducerstoreachandtakeordersfromcustomersbothinthesameeconomyandabroad.Althoughstatisticsondigitallyorderedtradearelimited,itsshareinexportsappearstobegrowingrapidly,includinginseveraldevelopingeconomies.Theshareincreasedfrom5to8percentofallexportsinMalaysiabetween2015and2019andhasmorethandoubledinThailandfrom2percentin2015to5percentin2021.Inthesameyear,digitallyorderedexportsreached11percentinCanada,upmorethanone-thirdsince2019(UNCTAD,2023a).

Thisrapidgrowthindigitaltradehighlightstheincreasingimportanceandinfluenceofdigitaltechnologiesintheglobaleconomyinfacilitatingandexpandinginternationaltrade,enablingbusinessestoprovidegoodsandservicesacrossbordersinamoreseamlessandcost-effectivemanner.InthewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic,digitaltradehasalsobecomeanimportanttoolforsupportingandenhancingresiliencebymaintainingbusinessoperationsanddeliveringgoodsandservicesamidstphysicalrestrictionsbutalsodiversifyingsupplychainsandopeningupnewmarkets(IMF,2022;OECD,2020b;WorldBankandWTO,2021).

Therealmofdigitalinnovationscontinuestoexperiencerapidgrowthandtransformation(WIPO,2022).Asaconsequence,thedigitalizationofinternationaltradeisexpectedtoexpandfurther.Withtheriseofremoteworking,anincreasingnumberoffirms,especiallythoseinhigh-incomeeconomies,areexpectedtorelyonimportedintermediateservicesfortasks,suchasaccounting,graphicdesignandsoftwareengineering(WTO,2019).Inspecificsectors,suchashealthservicesandinformationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT),thepotentialforgrowthindigitaltradeisparticularlynoteworthy.Thisgrowthisinpartdrivenbythedemandsofageingpopulationsinhigh-incomeeconomiesfordigitalservices,includinghealthandwellness,aswellastheexpandingworkforceingeographicallyremoteareasthatcanworkonline(ILO,2021;ITU,2021b).

Asthedigitaleconomycontinuestoevolve,policymakers,businessesandconsumersaregrapplingwiththeopportunitiesandchallengesitpresents.Harnessingthepotentialofdigitaltradeandensuringitsinclusivityandsustainabilityarekeyconsiderationsastheworldnavigatesthecomplexitiesofthefast-changingeconomiclandscape.

Inanefforttodeepentheunderstandingonapivotaltopicthatisbecomingincreasinglycentraltotradeandtheglobaltradingsysteminthe21stcentury,theInternationalMonetaryFund,theUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,theOrganisationforCooperationandDevelopment,theWorldBankandtheWorldTradeOrganizationhavejoinedforcestoconductthisstudyontheroleofdigitaltradefordevelopment.Thejointreportisintendedtoprovideafactualandbalancedassessmentofcurrentdevelopments.Itconsistsoftwomainsections.SectionBdiscussesthegrowthpotentialofthedigitaleconomy,explorestheimpactofdigitaltechnologiesontradepatternsandlooksattheimplicationsfordevelopment.SectionCdiscussesthechallengesfacedbydevelopingeconomiesinharnessingtheopportunitiesofdigitaltradeandtheroleofdomesticpoliciesandinternationalcooperationinovercomingthesechallengesandfosteringamoreinclusivedigitaltrade.ThestudyincludesafocusonthepossibleimplicationsoftheWTOmoratoriumoncustomsdutiesonelectronictransmission,giventhatthemoratoriumisoneoftheissuesattractingparticularattentionintherun-uptotheWTO’s13thMinisterialConference(MC13)tobeheldinFebruary2024.

Endnotes

1.TheHandbookonMeasuringDigitalTradedefinesalldigitallydeliveredtradeasservicestrade(IMF,OECD,UNCTADandWTO,2023).Itshouldbenoted,however,thatWTOmembersholddifferentviewsastowhetherdigitizablegoodsaregoodsorservicesoncedigitizedanddigitallydelivered.

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