印度国际经济关系研究委员会-2030年印度农产品供需展望（英）

NABARDResearchStudyNo.40ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030SHYMAJOSEASHOKGULATIProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowardsAuthors’Affiliations1.ShymaJose,ResearchFellow,IndianCouncilforResearchonInternationalEconomicRelations,NewDelhi2.AshokGulati,DistinguishedProfessor,IndianCouncilforResearchonInternationalEconomicRelations,NewDelhiISBN:©2023Copyright:NABARDandICRIERCoverpagedesignedbyRahulArora,ICRIERDisclaimer:Opinionsandrecommendationsinthereportareexclusivelyoftheauthor(s)andnotofanyotherindividualorinstitutionincludingICRIER.Thisreporthasbeenpreparedingoodfaithonthebasisofinformationavailableatthedateofpublication.Allinteractionsandtransactionswithindustrysponsorsandtheirrepresentativeshavebeentransparentandconductedinanopen,honest,andindependentmannerasenshrinedinICRIERMemorandumofAssociation.ICRIERdoesnotacceptanycorporatefundingthatcomeswithamandatedresearchareawhichisnotinlinewithICRIER’sresearchagenda.ThecorporatefundingofanICRIERactivitydoesnot,inanyway,implyICRIER’sendorsementoftheviewsofthesponsoringorganizationoritsproductsorpolicies.ICRIERdoesnotconductresearchthatisfocusedonanyspecificproductorserviceprovidedbythecorporatesponsor.Thecontentsofthispublicationcanbeusedforresearchandacademicpurposesonlywithduepermissionandacknowledgment.Theyshouldnotbeusedforcommercialpurposes.NABARDdoesnotholdanyresponsibilityforthefactsandfigurescontainedinthebook.TheviewsareoftheauthorsaloneandshouldnotbepurportedtobethatofNABARD.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowardsABBREVIATIONSUSEDAIDSFAOFCDSFYPAlmostIdealDemandSystemFoodandAgricultureOrganizationFoodCharacteristicDemandSystemFiveYearPlanGDPGrossDomesticProductHYVIMFHighYieldingVarietyInternationalMonetaryFundInternationalModelforPolicyAnalysisofAgriculturalCommoditiesandTradeIMPACTMMTNSSOCOVID19PCYMillionMetricTonnesNationalSampleSurveyOrganizationNovelCoronavirusDiseasePerCapitaIncomePDSPublicDistributionSystemQuadraticAlmostIdealDemandSystemRootMeanSquareErrorQUAIDSRMSESFWITESeedFeedWastageandIndustrialUseTrienniumEndingUNUnitedNationsWPPWorldPopulationProspectProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAccuratedemandandsupplyforecastsarenecessaryforpolicymakerstogenerateanoutlookofessentialcommoditiesinthemediumandlongrun.Thefluctuationinproductioncanresultinadeficitinthefoodbalancesheet,thereby,impactingfoodsecurity,pricestabilityandincreasingdependenceonimports.Therefore,thepresentreportaimstoprovideabetterunderstandingofthedemandandsupplysituationofessentialcommoditiestill2030inIndiaandputforthrecommendationsbasedonourfindingssothatIndiaisfoodsecureincomingyears.WegratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportprovidedbytheDepartmentofEconomicAnalysisandResearch(DEAR)-NationalBankforAgricultureandRuralDevelopment(NABARD).WewouldliketoexpressourprofoundgratitudetoDrG.R.Chintala,Chairman,NABARDandDrG.R.Chintala,DrHarshKumarBhanwala,formerChairman,NABARDfortheirsupportandproductiveinteractionfromtheveryconceptionoftheproject.WewouldliketoextendoursincerethankstoMrP.V.S.Suryakumar,DeputyManagingDirector,NABARD,andDrK.J.S.Satyasai,ChiefGeneralManager,NABARD,DEAR,forprovidinguswithvaluableinsightsforenrichingourpaper,andtheirsuggestionsastheprojectevolved.Lastly,weextendoursinceregratitudetoMsKritiKhuranaandMsAkshayaAggarwalfortheiroutstandingresearchsupport,particularlyindatacollationandempiricalanalysis.Theircontributionswereinstrumentalforfinalisingthisstudy.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030FOREWORDIndiahascomealongwayfrombeingafoodinsecurenationtobeingself-sufficientinfoodgrainsproduction.Today,thecountryisthelargestproducerofcotton,pulses,milkandjuteintheworldandthesecond-largestproducerofrice,wheat,sugarandfruitsandvegetablesglobally.However,thiswasnotthesituationduringthefirstdecadeofindependence.Thecountrywasonthevergeofamassivefaminewithtwoconsecutivedroughts(1965-66and1966-67)anddeceleratingfoodgrainsproduction,makingitdependheavilyonfoodimportsunderthePL-480foodaidprogrammeoftheUnitedStates.Sincethen,Indiahasmaderemarkableprogressinfoodproduction.Throughimprovementintheagriculturalpractices,increasedavailabilityofimprovedvarietyseeds,andinvestmentinirrigationfacilities,alongwithpricesupportpolicies,theGreenRevolutiontechnologywasabletoincreasefoodgrainsproductioninthecountryduringthelate1960sandearly1970s.ThistransformationofIndianagriculture,fromrelyingonfoodimportstobeingself-sufficientinfoodgrainsproductionwasprimarilyduetofocussedpolicyinterventionsandinnovativetechnologyandplanningforfuturefoodsecurity,whichinturn,dependsuponreliabledemandandsupplypredictionsofessentialfoodarticles.Thereliabledemandandsupplyforecasts,therefore,needtoincorporatepopulationandpercapitaincomegrowthaswellaschangingtastesandpreferencesofthepopulationtoprovideanaccuratefoodbalanceoutlookformediumtolongterm.Forinstance,duringthelasttwodecades,thedemandandsupplysituationinIndianagriculturehasundergonesignificantchange.Owingtotherapidlyincreasingpopulationcoupledwithsustainedincomegrowthandchanginglifestyles,therehasbeenasignificantshiftintheconsumptionpattern.Moreover,thediversificationofthefoodbasketawayfromtraditionalstaplestowardhigh-valuedcommoditiessignificantlyinfluencesfutureprospectsofthedemandandsupplyoffooditems.Andthereinliesthechallenge:howtomeetthegrowingdemandonasustainablebasisaswellasmoderateanyfluctuationinthesupplyofagriculturalcommoditiesespeciallyinthefaceofclimatechange?Inthisregard,thepresentstudyprovidestheestimatesofdemand,supply,andassociateddeficitindomesticproduction,ifany,thathastobemetthroughimportstill2030.Weexpectthisreportwouldleadtoaninformeddebateamongvariousstakeholdersforimpartingproperplanningforfuturepoliciesandprogrammestofacilitatemeetingthecountry’sfoodandnutritionalsecurityinthecomingdecade.DeepakMishraDirector&ChiefExecutiveICRIERShajiKVChairmanNABARDProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards203PREFACEThemainpremiseofthestudyistoimpartstrategicplanningforthefuturetosustainfoodsecuritywhileworkingtowardsachievingnutritionalsecurityinthecountrytill2030.Importantly,ensuringfoodsecurityinthecountryrequireshugeinvestmentsinproductivity-enhancingtechniques,innovativetechnology,andfocusedinterventionsandpoliciesbasedondemandandsupplyprojectionsforthemediumandlongterm.Againstthisbackdrop,thepresentstudyforecastsdemandandsupplyestimatesofagriculturalcommodities(wheat,rice,coarsecereals,cereals,pulses,foodgrains,sugar,oilseeds,fruits,vegetables,milk,andmeat)fortheperiodupto2030.Indoingso,thepaperfirstreviewsthepaststudiesandfindsoutsystematicbiases,ifany.Inthelightofthiscloseexaminationofliterature,especiallytheirmodels,thepresentstudygivesitsownestimatesofdemandandsupply.Hopefullyourestimatesarelikelytohavesmallerdegreeoferrorthanthepaststudies.TheliteratureondemandprojectionsofagriculturalcommoditiesinthepasthasuseddifferentapproachesincludingHouseholdConsumption,Normative,BehaviouristicandAbsorptionapproaches.MostoftheseapproachestodemandprojectionsarebasedonthepercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12)asthebaseyear.Since2011-12,theconsumptionbaskethasnotonlydiversifiedbutthetasteandpreferenceshavealsochangedremarkably.Therefore,inthepresentstudy,ratherthanusingNSSOpercapitaconsumption,wehaveusedanabsorptionfunctiontoprojectthefuturedemandofselectedagriculturalcommoditieswhereabsorptionisthesummationofactualproductionandnetimportafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstock.Underthescenarioofthepandemicandgiventhemedium-termforecastupto2030-31,wehaveassumedalternativethreeGDPgrowthratescenariosforprojectingthedemand:5percent(pessimistic),6percent(businessasusual)and7percent(optimistic)perannum.TheprojectedpopulationasgivenbytheUN’sWPP(2019),undertheassumptionofnochange,hasbeenestimatedtogrowat0.9percentperannumbetween2020and2030.Afteradjustingforthegrowthrateinpopulation,percapitaincome(PCY)isestimatedtogrowatanaveragerateofabout4.1,5.1and6.1percentperannum,respectively,underthethreeGDPgrowthratescenarios.Wehaveforecastedthefuturedemandforfoodgrains(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,andpulses),sugar,oilseedsfruits,vegetables,milk,andmeatupto2030-31usingthethreedifferentscenariosofPCYgrowth,populationprojectionsandtwosetsofexpenditureelasticitiesasestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011)andtheWorkingGroupReport(2018)oftheNitiAyog.Usingdifferentscenariosandelasticitiesprovidesuswiththepossiblerangeofdemandfortheseselectedfortheforecastedtimeperiod.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030Theabsorptionforcerealsandpulsesisforecastedtoincreaseupto272.1milliontonnes(MT)and33.7MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31ifthePCYgrowsby4.1percentperannumorincreasesupto273.3MTand35.3MT,respectivelyifthePCYgrowsattherateof6.1percentperannumusingelasticitiesestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011).Similarly,theprojecteddemandforfruitsandvegetableswillincreaseupto129.5-140MTand228.5-241.8MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31whereastheabsorptionofmilkandmeatwillincreaseintherangeof252.3-276.8MTand10.9-12.5MT,respectively,by2030-31underthedifferentassumptionsofPCYgrowthrate.UsingtheelasticitiesgivenbytheWG(2018)ofNitiAyog,weestimatethecerealdemandbytheendof2030-31willincreaseupto260.6MTunder4.1percentPCYgrowthand254.7MTunder6.1percentPCYgrowth.Thedemandforpulseswillrangebetween37.99to42.21MTin2030-31dependingonthevaryinggrowthscenarios.Ourdemandestimatesreiteratethattheconsumptionbaskettendstodiversifytowardsnutritiousandhigh-valuedcommoditiesincludingfruitsandvegetablesanddairyproducts,awayfromstaplessuchascereals.Likewise,wehaveestimatedthesupplyofagriculturalcommodities(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,cereals,pulses,foodgrains,oilseeds,milk,sugarcane,fruits,andvegetables)usingthebaselevelproductionandpasttrendofgrowthrateinactualproductionfor10yearsaswellas15years.Last10yearstrendalsocapturespartofemergingchallengesofclimatechange.Ourestimatesshowthatcerealproductionisestimatedtoincreaseupto342.3MTbasedonthetrendofthelast10yearswhereasthefoodgrainsareprojectedtoincreaseupto377.2milliontonnesinclusiveof35MTofpulsesbytheendof2030-31.Inthecaseoffruitsandvegetables,theproductionisexpectedtoincreaseupto145.2and253.5milliontonnes,respectively,bytheendof2030-31.Basedonourforecastsofagriculturalcommoditiesfortheyears2020-21,2025-26and2030-31,oilseed,pulsesandfruitsdepictasupplyanddemandgapinthecomingyears,implyingincreasingdependenceonimportsforthesecommodities.Oilseeds,particularly,needtechnologicalbreakthroughstoincreasetheirproductivityandreducethehighdependenceonedibleoilimports.However,self-sufficiencyintraditionaloilseedssuchasmustard,groundnutandsoyawouldrequireanadditionalareaof39millionhectaresunderoilseeds,whichcouldcutareaundercereals,endangeringthefoodsecurityofthecountry.Therefore,thecountryneedstorampupitseffortsindevelopingoilpalmathomewithproductivitycomparabletoIndonesiaandMalaysiawithfourtonnesofoilperhectaretoreduceimportdependencyinthefuture.Inthisregard,theNationalMissiononEdibleOils-OilPalmaimstopromotethecultivationofoilpalmandincreaseproductionupto1.12milliontonnesby2025-26and2.8milliontonnesby2029-30,thereby,reducingdependenceonedibleoilimports.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030Lastly,thecountryneedstohavefocussedandstrategicactionplansforpulsesandfruitssincetheirdemandinthefutureshowshighergrowth,relativetotheirsupply.Thepresentstudyalsorecommendsincreasingproductionthroughpublicinvestmentinirrigation,agriculturalresearchespeciallyforclimateresilientvarietiesandinfrastructuraldevelopmentsuchasroadnetworksandagro-processingfacilities.Additionally,amovetowardssustainableagriculturalpracticesneedstobeprioritisedthatcanimprovegrainqualityandsoilhealth,ensuringfoodsecurityandsustainablegrowthinagriculture.AuthorsProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|ABSTRACTDemandandsupplyprojectionsarecrucialforformulatingfarsightedagriculturalandfoodpoliciestosustainfoodproduction,ensurefoodsecurityandfortheefficientfunctioningoffoodsystemswhilecontrollingforexternalfactorssuchaschangingconsumptionbasket,taste,andpreferences,changingpopulationgrowthandincomegrowth.Againstthisbackdrop,thepresentstudyestimatesdemandandsupplyprojectionofmajoragriculturalcommoditiessuchascereals(rice,wheat,coarsecereals),pulses,milk,meat,sugar,fruits,andvegetablesupto2030-31underalternativepercapitaincomegrowthscenarios.Priortoforecastingdemandandsupplyprojectionsupto2030-31,thestudyhasvalidatedtheadoptedmethodologytoassesstheforecastingperformanceofthemodel.Areviewofearlierstudiesrevealsthat,forassessingthedemandprojection,moststudiesusedpercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12).However,sincethefoodbaskethasregisteredsignificantchangeovertheyears,thepresentstudyhasadoptedanabsorptionapproachtoprojectdemandforagriculturalcommoditieswheretheabsorptionofacommodityisestimatedafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstocksfromthesummationofproductionandnetimports.ExpenditureelasticityusedfordemandforecastinthisstudyiscompiledfromKumaretal.(2011)aswellasNitiAyog’sWorkingGroup(WG)ReportontheDemandandSupplyProjectionstowards2033(2018).Theestimatedprojectionsshowthatthefoodbalancesheetwillbestablein2030-31andthecountrywillbeself-sufficientincerealsunderallthealternativescenarios.However,commoditieslikeoilseeds,pulsesandfruitsareexpectedtoexperienceasupplyanddemandgapinthecomingyears.Adeficitinthefoodbalancesheetwouldresultinhigherimportstomeetthedomesticdemand,inturn,leadstoahugeimportbillinthelongrun.Therefore,thepolicyperspectivesneedtoensureabalancebetweendomesticproductionandabsorptionofthesecommoditieswhichrequiresinvestmentsinproductivity-enhancingandtechnologicalinputssinceareaexpansionislimited.Theprojectionsalsocorroboratewithearlierfindingsthatconsumptionpatternswouldindeedshiftfurthertowardshigh-valuecommoditiesupto2030-31,whichrequiremajorinvestmentsinmarketinfrastructure,processing,andstoragefacilitiessuchaswarehouses,coldstorage,coldchains,etc.Encouragingprivateinvestmentandpublic-privatepartnerships(PPP)intheagriculturalsupplychaincanreducepost-harvestlossesaswellimprovethesupplyofhigh-valuedperishablecommodities.Moreover,withincreasingclimatechangeimpactsovertheyears,theproductionofagriculturalcommoditiestomeettheincreasingdemandisachallengingtaskforthegovernmentandrequirespublic-privatepartnershipsinagriculturalresearchanddevelopmentaswellasclimatechangemitigationresearch.Notably,advisoryservicesandtimelyinformationthroughagriculturalextensionservicescanincentivisefarmerstoshifttowardssustainableagriculturalpracticesaswellasensurethebalancebetweendemandandsupplyoffood.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030EXECUTIVESUMMARYThepresentstudyaimstoforecastthedemandandsupplyofmajoragriculturalcommoditiesupto2030-31whichwillthrowlightonthefuture’sfoodbalancesheetscenariointhecountry.Withincomegrowthandthechanginglifestyleofpeople,thefoodconsumptionpatternhasbeendiversifyingtowardshigh-valuedhorticultureandlivestockproducts,awayfromstaplefoodgrains.Eventhoughtherehasbeenadecliningtrendinthepercapitaconsumptionofcerealsovertheyears,thetotalconsumptionoffoodgrainshaswitnessedasurgeduetotheincreasingpopulation.ThechangingscenariooftheconsumptionandproductionpatternoffoodgrainsandothermajorcommoditiescoupledwiththerisingpopulationandchangingtastesandpreferencesareboundtoinfluencethedemandandsupplyprospectsoffoodcommoditiesinIndia.Inthepast,alongtraditionofempiricalstudieshasprovideddemandandsupplyprojectionsforagriculturalcommoditiesforthemediumandlongterm.However,acriticalassessmentofthesestudiesindicatedthattherearewidevariationsinthedemandprojections,particularly,forfoodgrains,mainlyowingtodifferencesinmodelsusedtoestimateexpenditureelasticityorvaryingassumptionsrelatedtothegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthandthefeedcoefficient.Moreover,mostofthepaststudieshavenotvalidatedtheirmodel’sforecastingstrengthpriortoprojectingex-postdemandandsupplyprojections,makingitdifficulttoassessthereliabilityandforecastingperformanceoftheadoptedmodels.Notably,inthepresentstudy,wehavevalidatedtheex-antedemandforagriculturalcommoditieswithactualdemandtoassesstherobustnessofthemodelpriortopredictingfuturedemand.MostoftherecentempiricalstudiesonthedemandprospectshaveusedpercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12)forassessingthedemandprojection.Sincetheconsumptionbaskethasbeendiversifyingovertheyears,therefore,inthepresentstudy,wehaveusedanabsorptionfunctiontoprojectfuturedemandofselectedagriculturalcommodities.Absorptionisthesummationofactualproductionandnetimportafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstockwhichisinclusiveofbothdirectaswellasindirectdemand(seed,feed,wastage,andindustrialuse).Usingtheabsorptionfunction,we,first,validatedtheforecastdemandwithactualabsorptionfortheperiodbetween2000-01to2019-20withthebaseyearasTrienniumEnding(TE)1999-00.However,forthevalidationexercise,wehavechangedthebaseyearatfive-yearintervalsi.e.,TE2004-05,TE2010-11,andTE2015-16forfoodgrainsandoilseedswhereasthebaseyearwaschangedatTE2007-08,TE2012-13,andTE2016-17ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards203forprojectingthedemandforhighvaluedcommodities.Ourvalidationexerciseillustratesthattheforecasterrors(measuredusingtherootmeansquareerror(RMSE)islessthan5percentforagriculturalcommoditiessuchascoarsecereal,pulses,meat,sugar,andoilseeds,indicatingtheaccuracyandreliabilityofthemodelused.However,milk,rice,wheat,cereals,fruits,andvegetablesandfoodgrainsregisteredmorethan5percentofRMSE,primarilyduetohighshort-termfluctuationinproductionsaswellnetimportsofthesecommodities.Thus,thepredictionofthesecommoditiesmustbeinterpretedwiththecaveatthattheremaybesomedeviationbetweentheex-postpredictionsandactualabsorption.Inlightofthecrisislikepandemicandconsideringthemedium-termoutlookuntil2030-31,wehaveformulatedthreedistinctGDPgrowthratescenarios:apessimisticprojectionof5percent,abusiness-as-usualscenarioat6percent,andanoptimisticoutlookat7percentannually.Theseprojectionshavebeenbasedontheassumptionofnochangeinthepopulation,whichisexpectedtoincreaseby0.9percentannuallyfrom2020to2030accordingtotheestimatesprovidedbytheUnitedNations(UN)WorldPopulationProspects(2019).Afteraccountingforthispopulationgrowth,percapitaincome(PCY)isanticipatedtoincreaseataverageratesof4.1percent,5.1percent,and6.1percentperannum,respectively,inthethreegrowthscenarios.UsingthesethreedifferentscenariosofPCYgrowth,wehaveprojectedthefuturedemandoffoodgrains(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,andpulses),sugar,oilseedsfruits,vegetables,milkandmeatupto2030-31.Inaddition,weassumedtheexpenditureelasticitiesasestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011)andtheWGReport(2018)oftheNitiAyogtopredictthedemandfortheseagriculturalcommodities.Ourfindingsshowthatthetotalprojecteddemandorabsorptionforcerealsandpulseswillincreaseupto272.1milliontonnes(MT)and33.7MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31ifthePCYgrowsat4.1percentperannumorincreaseupto273.3MTand35.3MT,respectivelyifthePCYgrowsattherateof6.1percentperannumusingelasticitiesestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011).Theprojecteddemandforfruitsandvegetableswillincreaseupto129.5-140MTand228.5-241.8MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31whereastheabsorptionofmilkandmeatwillincreaseintherangeof252.3-276.8MTand10.9-12.5MT,respectively,by2030-31underthedifferentassumptionsofPCYgrowthrate.Similarly,theprojectionusingtheelasticitiesgivenbytheWG(2018)ofNitiAyogshowsthatthecerealdemandbytheendof2030-31willincreaseupto260.6MTunder4.1percentPCYgrowthand254.7MTunder6.1percentPCYgrowth.Thedemandforpulseswillrangebetween37.99to42.21MTin2030-31dependinguponthevaryinggrowthProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030scenarios.Notably,inalternatePCYgrowthscenariosusingelasticitiesofboththestudies,ourfindingscorroboratethattheconsumptionbaskettendstodiversifytowardsnutritiousandhighvaluedcommoditiesincludingfruitsandvegetablesanddairyproducts,awayfromstaplessuchascereals.Further,theprojectionsofthedemandforcerealsandfoodgrainsinthefuturewillincreasebutatadiminishingratewithcontinuouspopulationgrowth.Supplyofagriculturalcommodities(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,cereals,pulses,foodgrains,oilseeds,milk,sugarcane,fruits,andvegetables)areestimatedusingthebaselevelproductionandpasttrendofgrowthrateinactualproductionfor10yearsaswellas15years.Usingthetrendofthelast10years,wefoundthatcerealproductionisestimatedtoincreaseupto342.3MT.Thefoodgrainsareprojectedtoincreaseupto377.2milliontonnesinclusiveof35MTofpulsesbytheendof2030-31.Inthecaseoffruitsandvegetables,theproductionisexpectedtoincreaseupto145.2and253.5milliontonnes,respectively,bytheendof2030-31.Theexaminationoftheprojecteddemandandsupplyofagriculturalcommoditiesfortheyear2020-21,2025-26and2030-31illustratethatcommoditieslikeoilseed,pulsesandfruitsareexpectedtoexperienceadeficitinthefoodbalancesheetinthecomingyears.Therefore,thereisaneedtoincreasethelevelofproductionandproductivityofoilseeds,pulses,andfruitssincetheirdemandinthefutureshowshighergrowth,relativetotheirsupply.Oilseeds,particularly,needtechnologicalbreakthroughstoincreaseitsproductivity,therebyimprovingtheoilseed’sbalancesheetinthelongrunandreducingthehighdependenceonedibleoilimports.TheNationalMissiononEdibleOils-OilPalm,acentrallysponsoredscheme,withaninvestmentofRs.11,040croresaimtopromotethecultivationofoilpalmandincreaseproductionupto1.12milliontonnesby2025-26and2.8milliontonnesby2029-30,reducingdependenceonedibleoilsimports.Theschememayincreaseoilpalmproductioninthecomingdecadesbutself-sufficiencyinoilpalmproductionmaynotbesustainableasthecropisawater-guzzlingcropwithalonggestationperiod.Notably,forincreasingthesupplyofhigh-valuecommoditiesinaccordancewithincreasingdemandaswellastomanagesurplusesoftheothercommodities,thereisaneedforhugeinvestmentsinmarketinfrastructure,processing,andstoragefacilitiessuchaswarehouses,coldstorage,coldchainsetctobuildanefficientandreliablevaluechain,linkingfarmtothemarketefficientlyandeffectively.Incentivisingprivateplayersaswellaspublic-privatepartnerships(PPP)tobuildanagriculturalsupplychain,similartotheAMULmodelfordairyproducts,caneliminatepost-harvestwastageaswellasfacilitatethebalancebetweendomesticproductionanddemand.ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030Ensuringlong-termfoodsecurityandachievinghigheryield,investmentsinproductivity-enhancingagriculturalinputssuchasfertilizer,high-yieldingseedsetc.alongwithirrigationcoveragearecritical.However,efficientallocationofproductivity-enhancinginputsrequireslimitingthesubsidiesprovidedforwater,electricityandfertilizerwhichcanfurtherbeinvestedformicro,mediumandlong-termirrigationfacilities,roadnetworksandagro-processingfacilities.Essentially,sustainableagriculturalpracticesneedtobeprioritisedthatimprovegrainqualityandsoilhealth,ensuringsustainablegrowthinagricultur