市场策略报告：关注周期品涨价的持续性

核心观点与展望50A1.45%20002%TMT9%7%320002000ETF年报证实汇金借道ETF23300ETF1050ETF50300ETF2530001周内核心指数行业表现资料来源：，2周内中信一级行业表现资料来源：，4PPI图3大宗商品表现名称最新价5日涨跌幅（%）30日涨跌幅（%）年涨跌幅（%）COMEX黄金2254.804.3910.318.83COMEX白银25.101.0311.404.21ICE布油87.072.645.3413.02LME铜8872.000.064.703.66LME铝2335.001.136.55-2.06SHFE螺纹钢3412.00-5.54-9.83-14.70CBOT大豆1192.00-0.044.49-8.17CBOT小麦561.501.22-3.89-10.59CBOT玉米442.250.684.43-6.15DCE玉米2415.000.29-1.55-0.33DCE铁矿石740.00-11.85-15.86-23.99SHFE热轧卷板3625.00-5.15-7.08-11.80DCE聚丙烯7483.00-0.990.77-1.28LME锌2437.00-1.890.62-8.31LME镍16645.00-3.46-4.670.25LME锡27475.00-0.914.238.11LME铅2053.000.81-1.79-0.75DCE生猪15030.00-3.311.979.67DCE鸡蛋3287.00-5.38-6.30-9.57CZCE纯碱1789.00-2.720.51-12.99CZCE尿素1982.00-0.60-8.20-5.98NYMEX天然气1.75-3.31-3.10-30.31DCE塑料8225.00-0.620.28-0.64DCE焦煤1487.50-10.18-14.24-21.05DCE焦炭1990.00-8.63-15.59-19.71CZCE动力煤----CZCE甲醇2490.00-2.39-0.952.01DCE乙二醇4460.00-0.76-4.020.22DCE苯乙烯9346.001.653.0211.01资料来源：，3PMI1-2月，9140.6+10.2%22750图4上证50表现及成交占比资料来源：，指数与基金市场回顾50100503%5%图5指数与行业涨跌幅指数与大类行业周涨跌幅（%）上周涨跌幅（%）月涨跌幅（%）年初至今涨跌幅（%）最近两周换手率（%）最新换手率历史分位（2010年6月至今）本周上周单日5日均上证综指-0.23-0.220.862.230.780.8265.10%67.23%深证成指-1.72-0.490.75-1.301.251.4240.43%42.68%沪深300-0.21-0.700.613.100.430.4549.27%47.74%创业板50-2.54-1.131.63-1.771.611.9515.16%26.36%创业板指-2.73-0.790.62-3.871.471.729.76%22.06%创业板综-3.210.842.88-7.793.543.6764.39%70.67%风格指数科创50-3.96-1.79-5.57-10.480.800.893.69%8.16%中小综指-2.110.672.01-5.952.092.3351.62%59.49%上证500.49-0.990.073.820.230.2257.96%53.35%中证1000.22-0.611.423.400.460.5077.63%79.17%中证500-1.83-1.28-1.13-2.641.061.2321.66%23.47%中证1000-2.760.721.81-7.581.941.9439.50%48.72%万得全A-1.450.001.35-2.851.261.3468.16%71.28%能源指数1.99-0.031.2012.930.490.5176.94%67.23%材料指数1.13-1.155.08-2.011.411.5454.45%50.81%工业指数-0.340.033.85-1.471.371.4667.60%66.11%可选消费指数-1.771.373.931.472.362.5881.05%86.40%日常消费指数-0.500.031.43-2.251.411.5935.44%42.57%大类行业医疗保健指数-2.21-2.14-2.09-11.871.421.6538.89%49.40%金融指数-0.75-0.61-3.043.500.350.3554.63%54.86%信息技术指数-5.331.400.07-8.932.913.1161.59%72.59%电信服务指数1.192.481.345.720.740.7645.79%42.53%公用事业指数1.30-0.143.096.530.670.7243.35%40.61%房地产指数-1.90-1.35-3.93-9.311.441.2361.44%71.57%资料来源：，-0.86%-0.78%和-0.44%50%值为-2.3%5%8.1%。图6基金净值变化资料来源：，风险偏好与板块热度本周沪深300风险溢价回落7bp至299bp，沪深300估值中位数回升至18.95倍。近期市场持续震荡，风险溢价在历史极值上下浮动。图7沪深300风险溢价资料来源：，图8板块热度板块热度本周上周变化农林牧渔6285-23轻工制造6188-27环保6186-26商贸零售5386-32美容护理5279-28石油石化5169-18纺织服饰5172-21房地产5169-18综合4891-43有色金属4886-38食品饮料4879-32基础化工4783-36建筑装饰4375-33公用事业4163-23建筑材料4074-33交通运输3866-28社会服务3879-42家用电器3869-31汽车3582-47国防军工2984-55医药生物2973-44机械设备2774-46通信2579-55传媒2383-60银行21714钢铁2158-37电力设备2174-53电子2081-62计算机1781-64煤炭1028-18非银金融521-15资料来源：，重要资金行为本周北上资金净流入23.35亿元，其中周五暂停交易。行业层面，银行、食品饮料和汽车等行业净流入规模靠前，医药生物、传媒和电力设备等行业净流出规模靠前。个股来看，净流入规模居前的有和五粮液等，均净流入超9亿元；净流出规模居前的有迈瑞医疗、赛力斯和歌尔股份等，均净流出超4亿元。图9北上资金持股变化北上资金持股变化本周净流入（亿元）上周净流入（亿元）月度净流入（亿元）季度净流入（亿元）年度净流入（亿元）24年2月净流入（亿元）24年1月净流入（亿元）23年12月净流入（亿元）银行30.6-0.561.3252.0252.0135.954.8-53.6食品饮料16.64.769.6164.8164.8113.2-18.0-56.5汽车8.4-4.135.759.759.741.1-17.17.3电子7.88.437.1118.9118.942.938.859.4公用事业7.0-2.616.252.952.916.020.716.6有色金属6.9-0.140.036.036.037.4-41.321.2建筑装饰5.9-4.82.143.943.924.417.4-6.7国防军工3.5-0.64.741.841.815.022.02.5通信3.47.824.243.443.47.911.3-8.8家用电器2.512.750.170.970.919.51.2-19.4农林牧渔1.41.50.85.05.010.3-6.1-2.4轻工制造1.1-4.0-2.9-13.3-13.3-9.0-1.4-3.1石油石化0.64.111.94.74.719.7-26.9-18.4机械设备0.32.211.9-24.1-24.11.0-37.0-8.3纺织服饰0.2-0.24.83.23.20.6-2.35.5综合-0.10.10.00.70.71.4-0.70.1煤炭-0.8-8.67.016.216.20.48.82.4房地产-0.9-2.4-3.8-1.1-1.1-0.53.24.4环保-0.9-1.8-4.1-6.0-6.0-1.1-0.9-0.5基础化工-1.0-7.5-6.60.40.44.32.713.7非银金融-1.00.0-4.035.835.874.4-34.6-40.9计算机-1.1-16.7-52.8-14.3-14.36.032.4-39.4商贸零售-1.4-4.33.86.26.25.5-3.0-6.0美容护理-1.9-3.4-9.0-7.5-7.511.2-9.6-6.2交通运输-2.1-6.3-1.941.041.016.926.0-0.7钢铁-2.5-7.3-11.4-7.2-7.26.8-2.67.9建筑材料-2.5-8.5-10.5-16.2-16.20.1-5.8-4.6社会服务-2.7-2.1-7.3-5.5-5.51.40.4-5.9电力设备-4.07.754.46.16.148.3-96.674.4传媒-9.07.7-17.6-70.8-70.8-14.5-38.7-21.1医药生物-11.7-36.3-56.2-75.9-75.9-6.3-13.47.9资料来源：，本周ETF基金整体上净赎回，净申购的指数ETF为沪深300ETF（15.0亿元）和上ETF（1.9亿元）,ETF1000ETF（-20.3亿ETF（-17.4亿元）50ETF（-7.8亿元。图10指数ETF净申赎变化指数ETF净申购变化跟踪ETF本周净申购（亿元）上周净申购（亿元）沪深30015.0-7.7320.92597.82597.8上证红利1.9-1.8-2.81.81.8科创创业50-0.2-1.4-3.3-3.9-3.9MSCI中国A50-0.77.55.93.73.7中证红利-1.0-3.1-2.017.217.2国证2000-1.70.9-6.7-7.1-7.1科创50-1.9-34.1-47.8-29.4-29.4创成长-2.0-1.0-6.0-5.5-5.5中证2000-2.50.1-28.5-7.7-7.7中证500-3.2-11.054.7420.7420.7创业板50-4.7-12.4-41.8-24.1-24.1上证50-7.8-5.5-5.7254.2254.2创业板-17.4-32.4-69.0186.6186.6中证1000-20.3-2.33.4248.5248.5资料来源：，盈利与估值变化PE18.97.6%；PB1.810.8%。PB93.0%40.7%图11行业大盘股估值中位数行业大盘股估值中位数PE估值PE历史分位PB估值PB历史分位相对估值相对估值历史分位美容护理30.18.6%4.067.7%2.293.0%公用事业16.445.8%1.656.7%0.999.4%汽车21.161.8%1.951.8%1.199.9%煤炭7.519.5%1.346.1%0.771.5%机械设备23.029.8%2.137.5%1.292.1%纺织服饰16.332.0%1.631.6%0.968.4%传媒13.15.1%1.928.2%1.046.6%石油石化11.212.5%1.526.7%0.861.9%通信24.311.7%2.321.6%1.361.4%商贸零售12.87.2%1.520.9%0.866.3%轻工制造15.41.8%1.519.9%0.848.3%有色金属19.412.6%1.819.8%1.056.0%国防军工40.710.4%2.515.6%1.449.2%电子28.421.2%2.514.7%1.462.2%钢铁9.544.7%0.714.0%0.455.3%社会服务27.417.7%2.511.9%1.448.2%电力设备18.92.4%1.911.5%1.026.1%全市场18.97.6%1.810.8%--食品饮料21.43.4%3.410.7%1.940.7%建筑装饰11.222.5%1.110.1%0.630.3%银行5.226.0%0.59.7%0.320.6%家用电器15.89.8%2.18.8%1.258.7%综合29.369.4%0.98.7%0.513.3%计算机33.526.7%2.66.7%1.430.5%医药生物19.812.1%2.05.3%1.111.1%交通运输12.630.2%1.24.1%0.632.6%农林牧渔5.40.7%1.94.1%1.19.3%建筑材料13.929.5%1.32.0%0.722.9%环保14.98.3%1.11.3%0.63.8%房地产6.212.9%0.61.1%0.34.2%基础化工14.611.2%1.40.7%0.85.3%非银金融14.423.9%0.90.4%0.55.3%资料来源：，本周行业盈利预期来看，近期商贸零售、纺织服饰和社会服务行业业绩预期上修，建筑材料、钢铁和电力设备等行业盈利预期边际下滑。图12行业盈利预测变化代码 行业 预测EPS(2024)

近一周变化 近一月变化 2024年初以来变化

预测EPS（2024）

实际EPS（2022）

预测PE2024801200.SI

商贸零售

0.58 6.50%

5.88%

-6.25%

0.58 -0.04 24.99801130.SI801210.SI801110.SI801890.SI801120.SI801140.SI801720.SI801760.SI801230.SI801750.SI801080.SI801980.SI801770.SI801010.SI801150.SI801780.SI801160.SI801180.SI801050.SI801970.SI801950.SI801880.SI801030.SI801740.SI801170.SI801960.SI801790.SI801730.SI801040.SI801710.SI

传媒综合电子通信银行房地产环保钢铁建筑材料

0.76 2.44%0.51 0.29%1.97 -0.11%0.77 -0.41%3.29 -0.60%0.94 -0.62%1.00 -0.63%0.58 -0.64%0.41 -0.68%0.72 -0.69%0.76 -0.78%1.56 -1.49%1.22 -1.59%0.88 -1.63%1.15 -1.80%1.15 -1.80%0.60 -1.91%0.84 -2.02%0.85 -2.12%0.70 -2.13%1.64 -2.38%1.23 -2.55%1.06 -2.63%0.63 -2.64%0.60 -2.90%0.97 -3.88%1.03 -7.34%1.53 -8.64%0.33 -9.44%0.76 -13.10%

-1.85% 0.41%1.38% -2.37%0.44% 0.25%1.25% -0.73%0.85% 1.43%0.78% 1.82%0.83%