全球发展中心（CGD）：未来几十年气候变化在发展中国家的经济社会影响

TheSocioeconomicImpactofClimateChangeinDevelopingCountries

intheNextDecades

AREVIEW

PhilipKofiAdom

Abstract

TheSocioeconomicImpactofClimateChangeinDevelopingCountriesintheNextDecades:AReview

providesadiscussionoffuturetrendsasestablishedintheliteratureontheinteractionbetween

socioeconomicindicatorsandprojectedfutureclimatechangescenarios.Itenhancesour

understandingoffuturepredictedpatternsofclimatechangeeffectsinthecomingdecadesandthe

needforclimate-resilientinterventions.Thereisasignificantbodyofliteratureonclimateimpacts

onGDPpercapitaandcropyieldindevelopingcountries.However,impactsonfarmlandvalue,water

resources,andenergysecurityhavereceivedmuchlessattention.Acrosssectors,countries,and

regions,themostvulnerablegroupswerefoundtobedisproportionatelyaffected,andtheimpact

ispredictedtobelargerinthelongtermthaninthemediumterm.Therearefeasibleadaptation

andmitigationoptions,buttheseneedtobedevelopedanddesignedtoreflectlocalpeculiarities

orcontexts.Generally,thereviewreportindicatestheneedforurgentactionstobeundertaken,

especiallyinthemostvulnerablecountries,ifwearetostandachanceofavertingorminimizingthe

menaceofclimatechangeinthefuture.

WORKINGPAPER681•FEBRUARY2024

TheSocioeconomicImpactofClimateChangeinDevelopingCountries

intheNextDecades:AReview

PhilipKofiAdom

SchoolofEconomicsandFinance,UniversityofWitwatersrand,Johannesburg,SouthAfrica

E-mail:adomonline@yahoo.co.uk/philip.adom@wits.ac.za

TheauthorisgratefultoDr.CharlesKenny,KristaSmith,andtwootheranonymousreviewersfortheirconstructivecomments,whichimprovedanearlierdraftofthispaper.

PhilipKofiAdom.2024.“TheSocioeconomicImpactofClimateChangeinDevelopingCountriesintheNextDecades:

AReview.”CGDWorkingPaper681.Washington,DC:CenterforGlobalDevelopment.https://www.cgdev.org/

publication/socioeconomic-impact-climate-change-developing-countries-next-decades-review

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Contents

Listofabbreviations 1

Executivesummary 2

1.Introduction 4

2.Methodsanddata 5

2.1Reviewtypeandscopingstrategy 5

2.2Natureofthestudyanddatacollectionstrategy 6

2.3Summaryofthedata 6

3.Medium-tolong-termimpactofclimatechangeindeveloping

countries 10

3.1Impactofclimatechangeoneconomicgrowthandincome 10

3.2Impactofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductivity 21

3.2.1Foodsecurity 22

3.2.2Farmland 33

3.2.3Hunger,undernourishment,andpoverty 34

3.3Impactofclimatechangeonwaterresources 38

3.4Impactofclimatechangeonhealth 42

3.5Impactofclimatechangeonenergysecurity 45

4.Conclusionandimplicationsforpolicy 47

References 51

ListofFigures

1.Distributionofstudiesbypublicationoutlet 7

2.Distributionofstudiesbyyearofpublication 8

3.Distributionofstudiesbycontext 8

4.Distributionofstudiesbydatasource 9

5.Distributionofstudiesbycountryoffocus 9

6.Distributionofstudiesbytheme 10

7.Economiclossduetoclimatechangeunderdifferentdamagefunctions 12

8.ProjectedimpactofclimatechangeonGDPovertimeat3°CforAfrica 17

9.Regionalheterogeneityinclimatechangeimpactat3°Covertime 19

10.Country-levelheterogeneityinclimatechangeimpactat3°Covertime 20

11.SubregionalclimatechangeimpactonGDPinAfrica

byvaryingtemperatures 21

12.Climatechangeimpactonagriculturaloutput 23

13.Projectedimpactofclimatechangeonthenumberofpeopleatrisk

ofhunger 35

ListofTables

1.Inclusionandexclusioncriteriaforcreatingthedatabase 6

2.ImpactofclimatechangeoneconomicoutputinAfrica 18

3.Predictedyieldchange(%)between2010and2050duetoclimatechange 25

4.Summaryofstudiesontheimpactofclimatechangeoncropyield

withreferencetoano-climate-changescenario 31

Listof

CGEM-IAM

CI

CVD

GDP

GENESIS

HadCM

HAPPI

IPCC

NDC

OECD

PV

RCP

SSP

UI

UNSDG

Wm–2

abbreviations

computablegeneralequilibriummodeling–integratedassessmentmodeling

confidenceinterval

cardiovasculardisease

grossdomesticproduct

GlobalENvironmentandEcologicalSimulationofInteractiveSystems

HadleyCentreCoupledModelclimatesimulation

halfadegreeadditionalwarming,prognosis,andprojectedimpacts

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

nationallydeterminedcontribution

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

photovoltaic

RepresentativeConcentrationPathway

SharedSocioeconomicPathway

uncertaintyinterval

UnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoal

wattspersquaremeter

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES1

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

Executivesummary

Climatechangeisagrowingthreattotheworld.Extremeweatherevents,risingtemperatures,andchangingrainfallpatternswillbecomemorefrequent,posingaparticularthreattodeveloping

countries,wheresocial,economic,andpoliticalinstitutionsarefragile.Ifthemenaceofclimate

changeisnotaddressed,thesocioeconomicproblemsofdevelopingcountries,particularlyinAfrica,willdeepenanderodethegainsmadeindevelopmentinthelastdecades.

Thisconcernhasspurredresearchinterestintheeffectsofclimatechangeonsocioeconomic

indicators.Thepurposeofthisreportistogatherevidenceandanalyzetheeffectsofclimatechangeonsocioeconomicindicatorsindevelopingcountries.Thisapproachinvolvedreviewingpreviouslypublishedstudiesonthetopic,withafocusondevelopingcountries.Asthesestudiesdifferin

methods,initialconditions,andmodelassumptions,itisdifficulttodrawcomparisons.Atbest,wecananalyzethegeneralpatternsobserved.Specificfocusisgiventothefollowingsocioeconomic

indicators:GDPpercapita(income),agriculturalproductivity(foodsecurityandfarmlandvalue),

hungerandundernourishment,poverty,health,waterresources,andenergysecurity.Thefollowingarethemajorhighlightsofthereport.

1.Economiclossduetoclimatechangewillbesignificantinthelongtermindeveloping

countries.Althoughtherearevariedperspectivesontheeffectsofclimatechangeon

economicgrowth,thebalanceofevidenceindicatesthateconomicgrowthwilldeclinemoreindevelopingcountries–inAfricainparticular–andinthelongterm.ForAfrica,studies

havesuggestedmoderateeconomiclossinthemediumterm,before2050,butbeyondthis

period,economiclossduetoclimatechangewillincrease.Theliteraturehassuggesteda

meandeclineof7.12percentofGDPinthelongterm.EvenwithinAfrica,themostvulnerablesubregionsandcountrieswillbedisproportionatelyaffected.WesternandeasternAfrica

willsufferthemostduetoglobalwarming.Country-levelprojectionshavesuggestedmuch

greatereconomiclosses,rangingfrom–11.2percentto–26.6percentofGDPinthelongterm,inthemostaffectedregionsofAfrica.Whileatthegloballevel,negativeeffectsfromwarmingbecomemorepronouncedataround2degreesCelsius,smallertemperatureincreases

couldcausesignificantnegativeimpactonsocioeconomicindicatorsindevelopingregions,includingAfrica.Thespatialandtemporalvariationsintheevidenceindicatetheneedto

considerthelocalcontextwhendevelopingclimateadaptationandmitigationinterventions.

2.Foodinsecurityanddecliningfarmlandvaluearemajorfutureconcernsunderclimate

changescenarios.Thereisconsensusintheliteratureontheeffectsofrisingtemperaturesoncropyieldsandfarmlandvalue.Theimpactwillbedisproportionatelyhigherin

developingregionssuchasAfricaandinthelongterm.RegionalstudiesinAfricaand

CentralandSouthAmericahavesuggestedanextremelylargereductioninagricultural/

cropproductionyield.InAfrica,itrangesfrom–2.9percentin2030to–18percentin2050.InAsiaandNorthAmerica,theevidenceisnotconclusive,withestimatesofimpactvaryingfromhighlynegativetohighlypositive.However,rainfedcropswillsufferthemost,with

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES2

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

irrigatedcropsprovingtobemoreresilienttoclimatechange(butstillonlypartially).

ClimatechangeisexpectedtoreducethevalueoffarmlandinAfricainthelongtermby36to61percent.At2°Cglobalwarming,theriskofclimate-causedfoodinsecuritywouldbesevere,whichmightincreasetheincidenceofmalnutrition,undernourishment,andmicronutrientdeficiencies.

3.Millionsofpeopleareatriskofextremehungerandundernourishmentunderclimate

changescenarios.Withdecliningcropyieldsduetoclimatechange,asignificantnumber

ofpeopleinAfricawillbeatriskofseverehunger,malnutrition,andundernourishment.

InAfrica,morethan200millionpeoplerisksufferingfromextremehungerinthelongterm.

4.PovertyislikelytodeepeninAfricainthefuture.Withthesignificantprojecteddecline

incropyieldsduetoclimatechange,householdsthatworkintheagriculturalsectorare

likelytofacedecreasedincomesandariseinpoverty.WefindthatinAfrica,climatechangeislikelytocausecroprevenuelossofapproximately30percentandariseinpovertyof

between20and30percent,comparedtoano-climate-changescenario.

5.Thenumbersofwater-distressedareasandareasatriskoffloodarelikelytoincrease

inthefutureduetoclimatechange.Climatechangeaffectshydrologicalcycles,inturn

affectingfreshwaterandgroundwaterlevels,thelevelsandtimingofstreamflow,andlevelsofprecipitation.StudiesprojectamoderatedecreaseinwatersecurityinAfrica.Overall,

climatechangeislikelytopushmorethan50millionpeopleinAfricaintowaterdistress.

Forotherregions,suchasAsiaandNorthAmerica,theliteraturehassuggestedimpacts

thatvarybetweenamoderatedeclineandanincreaseinwaterscarcity.Moresevere

droughtsandfloodinginthefuturearealsoexpectedtodeepenfoodsecurityconcernsandincreasethenumberofpeopledisplacedduetoflooding.

6.Energysecurityislikelytosufferinthefutureunderclimatechangescenarios.Climatechangeaffectstheenergysystem.Generally,thereissomeconsensusontheincreasing

effectsofclimatechangeonenergydemand,buttheliteratureisdividedontheeffectsofclimatechangeonenergygenerationpotential.Whilethereisagreementonthedamagingeffectsofclimatechangeonthegenerationpotentialofsolar,wind,andthermalpower,theimpactofclimatechangeonhydropowerandbioenergygenerationisnotclear.

Insummary,importantinteractionsexistbetweenclimatechangeandsocioeconomicindicators.

However,somevulnerableeconomiesandregionswillbedisproportionatelyaffectedbyclimate

changeinthefuture.Whilethesocioeconomicimpactofclimatechangeispredictedtobemoderateinthemediumterm,theimpactispredictedtobelargeinthelongterm.Theimpactismoderatebelow2°Cofglobalwarmingbutbecomeslargerbeyond2°C.Thisindicatesthatlimitingglobalwarming

below2°Cwouldimprovesocioeconomicoutcomes,includingpoverty;incomes;energysecurity;

health;andwater,sanitation,andhygiene.Acrossstudies,thereisevidenceofspatialandtemporalvariationintheeffectsofclimatechangeonsocioeconomicindicators.Thisindicatestheneedto

considerthelocalcontextinthedesignofclimateadaptationandmitigationmeasuresandtake

urgentactionstoreducetheimpactofclimatechangeonAfrica’sfuturedevelopment,inparticular.

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES3

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

1.Introduction

Thereisevidenceofrecentrisingtrendsinextremeweatherevents,warmertemperatures,and

changingrainfallpatterns(ValenezuelaandAnderson,2011).ThelatestIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)reportassertsthattheaveragetemperatureoftheEarthhasincreasedby1.09°Cbetween2011and2020,abovethelevelsobservedin1850–1900(IPCC,2022).TheIPCC

estimatethatthereisa50percentchancethatinthenearterm,globalwarming,evenunderaverylowgreenhousegasemissionsscenario,willreachorexceed1.5°C(IPCC,2022).

AccordingtotheIPCCreport,extremeweathereventsthatoccurredonaverageonceevery10yearswithintheperiod1850–1900arenowlikelytooccur2.8timesevery10years–andthatfigureis

expectedtoriseto4.1timesevery10yearsshouldglobalwarminghit1.5°C.Theseclimate-inducedeventscanresultinseverefloodsanddroughts(IPCC,2022).

Therisingfrequencyandintensityofextremeweathereventshassignificantimpactsonthenaturalworld.Forexample,itreducesbiodiversity,withevidenceofpopulationcollapseandlocalextinction(dellaFuenteandWilliams,2022).Theinterdependenceofclimate,biodiversity,ecosystems,and

humansocieties(IPCC,2022)indicatesthatclimatechangewillalsohaveafar-reachingadverse

impactonhumanity.StudiessuchasthosebyBatten(2018)andtheIPCC(2014)havedemonstratedthemultipleimpactsofclimatechangeonbroadsectorsoftheeconomy,humanhealth,andwaterresources.Climatechangeisimpactingfoodsystems(vonBraunetal.,2023;Mironetal.,2023;

Abeysekaraetal.,2023;Chandioetal.,2023),economicgrowth(Delletal.,2012;ArndtandThurlow,2015;AdomandAmoani,2021;Duanetal.,2022;Meattleetal.,2022),health(Abbasetal.,2023;

AstoneandVaalavuo,2023),laborproductivity(ValenzuelaandAnderson,2011),watersystems

(Hanetal.,2022;BibiandTekesa,2023),energymarkets(TahirandAl-Ghamdi,2023),andpoverty(Herteletal.,2010).

Amongtheseworryingtrendsofrisingclimatechangeimpactsingeneralistheconcernofa

particularlydevastatingimpactondevelopingeconomies,whichhaveverylowcapacitytoadapttotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange(Tol,2018;Stern,2007).Thepurposeofthisstudyisto

documentevidenceandtrendsintheliteratureonclimatechangeimpactsacrossdifferent

socioeconomicfactorsinthenextdecades,withafocusondevelopingeconomies.

Althoughalleconomies,regions,communities,andsectorsareexposedtotheimpactsofclimate

change,theimpactisnothomogeneous(SigneandMbaye,2022).Developingeconomieswith

lowadaptivecapacityriskexperiencinggreaterimpactsthandevelopedeconomies(Cline,2007;

Stern,2007;Ludwigetal.,2007;Bowenetal.,2012;Tol,2018).Withweakfood,water,health,and

infrastructuralsystemsindevelopingeconomies,climatechangemayimpoverishmillions.BeyondplacingtheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(UNSDGs)outofreach(Ludwigetal.,

2007),climatechangemayreversepreviousgainsindevelopmentintheseeconomies.

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES4

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

Theheterogeneousimpactofclimatechangeimpliesthatnoone-size-fits-allstrategyexiststhatcanhelpdevelopingcountrieslimitnegativeoutcomes.Thereisalsolittleconsensusabouttherelative

andabsolutescaleofimpactsacrosssectorsanddevelopmentoutcomes(see,forexample,ArndtandThurlow,2015;Baarschetal.,2020;Nelsonetal.,2010),whichintroducesuncertaintyinpolicydesignandweakenseffortstocombatclimatechange.Thisstudytakesstockoftheexistingknowledgeandtrendsinclimatechangeimpactsacrossdifferentsocioeconomicandpoliticalfactorsinthehopeofhelpingthosewhoaredesigningclimate-resilientprogramsthataresensitivetocontext.

2.Methodsanddata

2.1Reviewtypeandscopingstrategy

Variousstudieshavebeenconductedonthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeondifferent

socioeconomic,environmental,andpoliticalfactorsindifferentcontexts.Thepurposeofthis

sectionistoexplaintheboundariesforthestudiesincludedinthisreview.Astheaimistoexaminethetrendsandpatternsintheliteratureonthesubject,thisstudyincorporatesadeskliterature

reviewonthetopictoestablishthescope,trends,andpatternsoftheevidencegatheredsofarfromadeveloping-economycontext.Becausetheunderlyingassumptionsformodelspredictingclimatechangeimpactsdifferfromonestudytoanother,wearecautiousinmakingcomparisonsacross

thesestudies.Atbest,itissafetodiscussthepatternsandtrendsofimpactsestablishedintheliterature.

Thefirststepinthisdeskreviewwastheidentificationofkeywords.Thekeywordswereoftwobroadtypes:climatechangeindicatorsandsocioeconomicfactors.Forclimatechangeindicators,the

followingkeywordswereused:climatechange,temperature,precipitation,carbondioxideemissions,andpollution.Forthesocioeconomicindicators,thefollowingkeywordswereused:economicgrowth,income,poverty,welfare,health,agriculturalproductivity,waterresources,energydemand,energy

supply,andenergysecurity.Inthesecondstep,wepairedeachoftheclimatechangeindicatorswiththesocioeconomicindicatorsinthesearches.Initially,thesesearcheswerebroad,withoutlimitationintermsofperiodorcontext,toestablishthedepthofexistingresearchonthetopic.Thethirdstep

involvedsortingtheevidencegatheredtofocusontheessentialstudies.Atthisstage,someinclusionandexclusioncriteriawereestablishedtohelpnarrowthefocusoftheincludedliteraturewhile

keepinginmindthekeyresearchquestionforthisreview.Table1showstheinclusionandexclusioncriteriaforthisstudy.

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES5

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

TABLE1.Inclusionandexclusioncriteriaforcreatingthedatabase

InclusionCriteria

1Thecontextofthestudyincludesatleastonedevelopingcountry.

2Thestudyadoptseitherastrictlyquantitativeormixedapproachintheassessmentoftheimpactofclimatechange.

3Thestudymakesmedium-tolong-termpredictionsofclimatechangeimpacts.

4Theoutcomeoftheexaminationincludesoneofthesocioeconomicindicatorsidentifiedearlierinthisstudy.

5Thestudycontainsacleardescriptionofthemethodsanddataused.

ExclusionCriteria

1Thestudyisinaccessibleeitherbecauseitwasnotyetpublishedatthetimeofrevieworduetosubscriptionrequirements.

2Thestudyadoptsastrictlyqualitativeapproach.

3Thestudywaspublishedinapredatoryjournalorquestionableoutlet.

2.2Natureofthestudyanddatacollectionstrategy

Differentquestionsaboutclimatechangeimpactnecessitatedifferentapproaches.Thisreviewhasastrongbiastowardmeasuringthefutureimpactofclimatechangeonsocioeconomicindicators,sopriorityisgiventostudieswithastrongquantitativeorientation.Qualitativestudieswerenot

ignoredentirelyifeffortsweremadetoquantitativelymeasuretheimpactofclimatechange.Thus,preferencewasgiventoeitherquantitativeormixed-methodsstudies.

Scopus,GoogleScholar,andtheWebofSciencedatabaseweretheprimarysearchenginesusedforthisreview.Datafromthesesourceswerecombinedandsortedtoeliminateduplicatestudies.Wealsocomplementedthesedatausingthebibliographiesoftheidentifiedstudies.Datafrom

reports,books,workingpapers,andconferencepaperswerealsoused.

2.3Summaryofthedata

Wegatheredatotalof139studiesfrom79publicationoutlets,whichwereobtainedfromvarious

searchenginesonclimate-relatedimpactsafterapplyingtheexclusionandinclusioncriteria.

Asignificantnumberofthesestudiesarejournalarticles,withafewappearingasconferencepapers,reports,books,orbookchapters,orworkingpapers.Therearenoclearleadingsourcesamongthe

publicationoutlets,althoughsomejournals,suchasClimaticChange,GlobalEnvironmentalChange,andScienceoftheTotalEnvironment,amongothers,publishedafewmorestudiesthantheothers(seeFigure1).

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES6

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

FIGURE1.Distributionofstudiesbypublicationoutlet

ClimateChange

WaterResources&Management

Books:

Environment&PlanningA:EconomyandSpace

EnergyPolicy

EnergyReports

PhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSociety

RegionalEnvironmentalChange

JournalofPublicEconomicTheory

Energy

Global&Planterychange

InternationalJournalofClimatology

NatureEnergy

RenewableEnergy

PNAS

Climatology&WeatherForecast

CleanerEngineering&Technology

NatureCommunication:

Environmentinternational.

JournalofWater&ClimateChange

WaterResourceManagement

TheoreticalaAppliedClimatology

Paddy&WaterEnvironment

WestAfricanJournalofAppliedEcology

RusianJournalofAgriculturalSocioeconomicScience

NatureSustainability

SustainableFood&Agriculture

FoodSecurity

TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange

WorldDevelopment

AdvancesinMeteorology

WorkingPaper

EnvironmentalResearchLetters

EnvironmentalResearch

Environment,Development&Sustainability

AppliedEnergy

Atmosphere

Sustianability

Energies

Reports

ClimateChangeEconomics

ScienceofTotalEnvironment

ClimaticChange

Source:Author'sownconstruction.

Intermsofthedateofpublication,thedistributionseemsskewedtorecentyears,withmostofthepapersbeingpublishedafter2017(seeFigure2).Theyears2020and2022recordedthehighest

publicationnumbers,followedby2021,2018,and2019.

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES7

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

Numberofpapers

1992

1994

1995

1996

1999

2000

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Number

FIGURE2.Distributionofstudiesbyyearofpublication

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Year

Source:Author’sownconstruction.

Intermsofcontext,Figure3showsthedistributionofstudiesbytype:groupedandcountryspecific.Itisclearfromthefigurethatmostofthestudiesinthisreview(85)usedgroup-leveldata,whiletheremainingstudiesusedcountry-leveldata.Ofthe85studiesthatusedgroupdata,49usedglobaldataandtherestusedregional-andsubregional-leveldata(seeFigure4).Figure5showsthedistributionofstudiesbyspecificcountryoffocus.ThegreatestnumberofpapersfocusedonIndia(8studies),

followedbyChina(7)andEthiopia(4).Comparatively,thecountry-specificdataplotshowsthatthefocus,andthusthebalanceofevidenceofclimatechangeimpacts,isbiasedtowardAsiaandAfrica:20ofthecountry-specificcasestudies,outofatotalof54arefromAfricaand34fromAsia.

FIGURE3.Distributionofstudiesbycontext

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Grouped

Countryspecific

Source:Author’sownconstruction.

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES8

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

Number

Nepal

Sudan

SouthAfrica

China

India

Mali

Brazil

Ethiopia

Indonesia

Ghana

Niger

Pakistan

Thailand

Vietnam

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Zambia

Côted’lvoire

Iran

Somalia

Taiwan

Benin

Cameroon

Bostwana

Kenya

Egypt

Number

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

FIGURE4.Distributionofstudiesbydatasource

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Africa

Global

LatinAmerica&Asia

EastAfrica

WestAfrica

Southern

Africa

Source:Author’sownconstruction.

FIGURE5.Distributionofstudiesbycountryoffocus

Source:Author’sownconstruction.

Finally,weplotthedistributionofpapersbytheme(Figure6).Itisclearfromthefigurethatthe

agriculturalsectorhasreceivedmoreattentionintermsofclimatechangeimpactassessmentthanothersectors.Asshowninthefigure,47ofthe139totalreviewedstudiesassessedtheimpactof

climatechangeonagriculturalproductivity.Mostofthesestudiesonagricultureassessedtheimpactofclimatechangeonfoodsecuritymeasures,whiletherestexaminedtheimplicationsoffuture

climatechangeforfarmlandvalue.Developingeconomiesdependheavilyontheprimarysector,

whichexplainstheirhighsusceptibilitytoclimatechangeimpacts.Thismightalsoexplainwhy

thereisastrongfocusontheagriculturalsectorinstudiesonthefutureimpactsofclimatechange.Thenextlargestgroupofstudies(36)areeconomy-wideassessmentstudiesusingGDPorother

THESOCIOECONOMICIMPACTOFCLIMATECHANGEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES9

INTHENEXTDECADES:AREVIEW

Number

economy-widewelfaremeasures.Thewaterandenergysectorsalsohaveareasonableamountof

evidence(17and19studies,respectively)onhowclimatechangeimpactsthem.Studiesontheeffectsofclimatechangeonhealth,hunger,undernourishment,andpovertytogethertotaljust20.

FIGURE6.Distributionofstudiesbytheme

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Health

GDP/welfare

Water

resources

EnergyHunger,

undernourishment&

Agricultural

productivity

poverty

Source:Author’sownconstruction.

3.Medium-tolong-termimpactofclimatechangeindevelopingcountries

3.1Impactofclimatechangeoneconomicgrowthandincome

Theeconomy–environmentlinkhasbeenwellinvestigated,buttherelationshiprem