国际信号规则之信号旗

C/AFT

European

DatalinkInvestmentAnalysisWorkingMeetingSeptember1,1999信号旗OverviewIntroduction&AssumptionsAOCSituationATCSituationC/AFTModelingProcessModelInputsResultsPotentialbenefitoffuturedatalinkenhancementsConclusionsIntroductionC/AFTairlinesagreethatfuturesystemcapacityisaprimarydriverforglobalairspacesystemchangesC/AFTproposesincrementaloperationalenhancementsthatcanbeenabledbyCNStechnologiesDatalinkisprimarycandidateenablerfordelayreductionThisisnotanalternativesanalysis,datalinkistheonlytechnologyenablerconsideredAnalysisisperformedforHighTrafficLevelAreasofEuropeBasedonairlinepointofview(airlinesasanindustry,notasingleairline)AOCfrequencycongestiondrivesequipageAirtrafficgrowthdrivesATCinfrastructurereadiness,whichdrivesequipageEvaluatestransitionfromcharacter-basedACARSAOCtoATN-basedAOCandATCoperationsEvaluatestransitionfromnon-datalinkAOCoperationstoATN-basedAOCandATCoperationsBothAOCandATCbenefitsconsideredAssumptionsU.S.AirlineOperationsControl

WhytheNeedforChange?ACARSDemandisIncreasingNewaircraftbeingdeliveredNewairlineusersenteringserviceNewapplicationsandnon-airlineusersACARSisaShared-AccessSystemBasedonnon-discriminatorysystemofFCCfrequenciesSpectrumAvailabilityandCongestionLimitednumberofVHFfrequenciesInterimACARSexpansionisshort-livedandexpensiveU.S.AirlineOperationsControl

IncreasingU.S.DemandforServiceGrowingnumberofACARSaircraftinU.S.Today:Approx.5600U.S.+1500Non-U.S.=7100Future:Upto1200moreovernext3to5yearsPotentialnewdemandfromnewparticipantsCivil:LargeScheduled(Regional),Cargo,&BusinessMilitary:Non-TacticalAircraft,AirNationalGuardEstimatedpotentialatmorethan4500additionala/cIncreasingnumberofdatalinkapplicationsAircraftPerformanceCrewManagementIn-flightOperationsEuropeanAOCIssuesX%ofairlinesusedatalinkAOCfrequencycongestionproblemsThosenotusingAOCdatalinkmayequipforVDL-2forbothAOCandATCbenefitsNomorefrequenciesavailableforACARSthereispoliticalpressurebyEuropeanFrequencyManagementgrouptomakebetterutilizationoffrequenciesmuchmoreserioussituationthaninUSATCwillbeusingupchannelsfreedby8.33,nochanceforgrowthforACARSTwofrequenciesthatweredesignatedACARSfreq’swillhavetogotoVDL-22003-2005Morecongestion,badforbandwidthEuropeanAOCIssues,continuedNumberofairplanesequippedwithAOCisgrowing(SITA)Moreapplications,AOCtrafficisgrowingperairplanePotentialforveryhighgrowthinAOCtrafficasmoreairlinesequipbetween20-25%annualgrowth(tobeconfirmedbySITA)RelyingonAOCmorethanbefore,AOCisbecomingbackboneofOperationalControlorganization.AirlineswillberelyingmoreonACARSdata.Impacttopassengers--flightinformationonboard.EuropeanSpectrumIssues

CongestionandAvailabilityNewapplicationsistheprimaryreasonforincreasingdemandforACARSNewdatalinkusersenteringserviceisthesecondaryreasonforincreasingdemandforACARSManyareasofUSalreadyalreadyexperiencingcongestiononenroutefrequenciesOtherindustriesarelookingandpetitioningforavailablespectrum(useitorloseit)Managingspectrumcongestionandavailabilitywillbeagrowingandcontinuingconcernfortheairlineindustry.TheDigitalSolution(VDL-2)MigrationofACARStraffictoVDL-2willeffectivelyaddressprojectedfrequencycongestionACARScapacitycannotbeexpandedATCDataLinkisacommonelementinmostnewapplicationsrelatedtoATCmodernizationandairspacemanagementNetworkServiceProviderstransitioningtoVDLMode2toprovidemoreACARScapacityATCdatalinkserviceswillbeavailableonATNVDLMode2ARINC-12/8/98U.S.ATCSituationAmericanAirlinesperformedstudyofimpactofdelayonairlinescheduleWithoutcapacityimprovementsairlineflightschedulecriticallyimpactedbyyear2005ByreducingseparationsairlineschedulescanbemaintainedFAAstudyofCruise/TerminalTransitionareadatalinkindicatessignificantdelayreductionpossibilitiesReducevoicefrequencycongestionRedistributecontrollerworkload,allowingimprovedATCservicesforincreasedsectorproductivityandefficiencyFAAhasfundingapprovalforBuilds1and1aVDLMode2CPDLC.PETAL-IItrialsinEuropeunderwaytoevaluatedatalinkoperationalissuesEuropeanATCSituationCurrentdelaysituationisverybad,needtodosomethingimmediatelyairlinesarewillingtoinvestinreducingtheamountofdelaythatexiststodayneedtomaintainacceptablelevelsofdelay(seeperformancetargetdocument)FAPdocumenthas5yearforecast--usethosenumbers--updatewillbereadyinOctoberEuropeanstudyofimpactofdelayonairlineschedule?Henk/BenwillprovidedelaygrowthnumbersEurocontroldoingdatalinksimulation(L2KBC)studyingpotentialcapacitygainsbyimplementingATSdatalinkpreliminaryresultsinOctoberLink2000+usingbusinesscasetojustifyATSdatalinkimplementationPETAL-IItrialsinEuropeunderwaytoevaluatedatalinkoperationalissuesEuropeanATCSituation,continuedVoicefrequencycongestionlooming,itwillnotbepossibletoincreasecapacitybyopeningnewsectorsandthereforeadifferentapproach(e.g.controllertools)willbeneeded.ATCunitcostsmustnotincrease,capacitygrowthhastobeaffordableInfrastructureimprovementsmustbesustainable(provideevolutionarypath)Assumedual-stack(FANS/ATN)notsupportedintheareasofEuroperepresentedinthisanalysisFAA’sDataLinkProgram

BasedonATNoverVDL-2Builds1and1AaresubsetofPETAL-2Build2includesinitialoceanicmessagesupportBuild2hasinternationalscopeEurocontrolandEuropeanStatesrequestingjointFAAcollaborationtodefinefollow-ondatalinkimplementationproject.Build2follow-onactivityexpectedtobekeyinsettingtheinternationalstandardforATCdatalinkincongested,highlydevelopedairspace.Build2willdefinethebeginningofthetransitionfromFANS-1toATN.TheFirstStep:

ControllerCommunicationsWorkload

documentsource0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%StripMgmtExtCoordIntCoordConfSrchR/TRdrCoordRdrSuperRdrInterv"SYSCO"ApproximateControllerWorkloadDistributionC/AFTModelingProcess

TransitionLogicDiagramsC/AFTisproponentofincrementaloperationalenhancementsTransitionLogicDiagramsseparatediagramforeachphaseofoperationdevelopedforbothcapacityandefficiencyoperationalenhancements“enabled”bytechnologyorproceduralimprovementsC/AFTanalysisfocusesoncapacity-relatedimprovementsReducedseparationsAdditionalroutesSeparationRingsSensorDisplayShort-TermIntentControllerComm:a/gPilotClosureRateDisplayWeatherMedium-TermIntentDataControllerComm:g/gPilotFlowRatesAirspaceComplexityRequiredElementPerformanceRxP=f(sensors,decisionsupport,human)RequiredSystemPerformancesetsSeparationStandardRSP=

g(RCP,RMP,RNP)SensorDisplayControllerPilotTheoreticalEffectiveResource-ConstrainedEffectivePreventionInterventionDetectionRNP,RMP,RCPRMP,RCPRMPResource-ConstrainedCNS/ATMFocusTeam14Atlantastudybaseline.

DatalinkusedforClearancesandTransferofCommReducedPreventionBuffer5.Cruise/TerminalTransitionAreaTransitionsMorePublishedSIDsandSTARsAirplane-LevelCapacityEffectsSystem-LevelCapacityEffectsReducedPreventionBufferLowercontrollerworkloadMoreVerticalProfilesReducedInterventionBufferReducedSeparationMinimaStateVectorPredictionFAAAtlantaStudyCruise/TerminalTransitionSectorhandlesarrivalsequencing,overflighttraffic,anddeparturesRestrictionsareenforcedduetocommunicationvolumesaturationProblem:Duringpeakperiods20MilesinTrail(MIT)fordeparturesenteringsector,resultingingrounddelaysResult:Usingdatalinkforroutinevoicecommunicationsallowedreductionfrom20MITto5MIT(62%delayreduction)CNS/ATMFocusTeamEuropeanATCBenefitsWillbelookingatmultipleservicesaffectingmultiplephasesofflightFirststagewillbelocalservicesatairportsDepartureClearanceD-ATISAssumethattransitionfromoldwaytonewwaywilloccurbetweennowandsomedate(e.g.2005),moreairportswillprovidetheinfrastructure,andmoreairportsprovideservice,andthatairlineswilltransitiontoVDL-2.Forthosecurrentlyusingtheseservicestheywillseebenefitbecauseofmoreairportsofferingtheservice,andlowercostofservice(assumingthatserviceoverVDL-2ischeaperthanoverVHFACARS)Forthosenotdoingitnow,butthatequipwithVDL-2theywillseethebenefitoftheserviceairportinfrastructurereadinesswilldriveequipageEuropeanATCBenefits,continuedSecondandthirdstagewillbearea-wideservicesinen-routeC/AFTconcludesthatgroupingofthefunctionsinAppendixBoftheLINK2000+OperationalScopeDocumentintheL2KBCsimulationdoesnotidentifythebenefitcontributionofeveryelement.TheC/AFTapproachistoevaluatethevalueofincrementaloperationalenhancements.ItemizingthefunctionswouldbeconsistentwiththeC/AFTapproach.Link2000+DraftingGrouptomakeadecisiononhowtoadapttheL2KBCsimulationbyMondaySeptember6,1999.BenBerendstoinformC/AFTofthedecision.IfanyelementsareexcludedfromthesimulationtheywillalsobeexcludedfromthecostsintheC/AFTmodel.C/AFTModelingProcess

EconomicModelDeterminesCostsBenefits(convertedtodollars)RiskRulesBuildsDeterministicSensitivityAnalysisIdentifiesinfluenceofeachuncertaintyonNPVUsedtocalculateoverallriskandreturnDatalinkInfluenceDiagramCNS/ATMFocusTeamDatalinkInvestmentModelEquippageModelInfrastructureModelUpfrontInvestmentModelNetBenefitsModelInfrastructureTimingInfraEffectivnessAOCReadinessCashFlowsForwardFitandRetrofitEquippageRates(+)DelayReductionAOCSavingsFFPOAPenaltiesNon-AOCAvailability(-)EquippageCostsS/WUpgradeCostsAirlineHostCostsNewDeliveriesDelayGrowthCurrDelay/Flight(-)ATCS/WMaintAnnualMessageCostsTotalPlanesFFPlanesRetrofitPlanesAirplanesRetiredCNS/ATMFocusTeamU.S.ModelInputs

ConstantsStartYearofModel 2000 FinalYearforEquippage =2015 FinalYearforBenefit=2020 DiscountRate =12% InflationRate=3.5%DirectOperatingCost(DOC)perminute=$25DoesnotincludeamortizationofcostsforownershipPercentageofFuel-relatedDOC=30%Fuelinflationrate=5% EuropeanModelInputs

constantsSimilartoUSconstantsseespreadsheetfordetailsWillalsoincludenumberof“other”airplanesforequipagevs.benefitscurveProposal:Includecostsandbenefitsofpassengerjetliners.Includeequipagelevelsofcommuterandbusinessaircraft,butdonotfactorintheircosts/benefits.Themodelwillbestructuredsothatitcanberunforanypopulationofairplanes.Ifairlineswishtodeterminecostsandbenefitsfortheircommuterfleettheycanhavethespreadsheetandsimplychangetheinputdata.AirplaneTypesPassengerJetlinerThiscategoryincludesallcommercialaircraftwithmorethan100certifiedseats.Theseaircraftaretypicallyoperatedbyscheduledairlinesandcharterairlines.ThemainmanufacturersofaircraftofthatcategoryareAirbusandBoeing.ThemostfrequentaircrafttypesareB737,MD80,B757,B747,B767,A300,A320,andA310.CommuterThiscategoryincludesallcommercialaircraft,eitherjetorturbine-powered,withmorethan15(butlessthan100)certifiedseats.Theseaircraftaretypicallyoperatedbyscheduledairlines,regionalcarriersandcharterairlines.ThemainmanufacturersofaircraftofthatcategoryareATR,BAE,Embraer,Dornier,Saab,CanadairanddeHavilland.ThemostfrequentaircrafttypesareAT42,BA46,F50,DHC8,SF34,andSB20.AirplaneTypesBusinessAircraftThiscategoryincludesallexecutive/corporateaircraftwithmorethan5certifiedseats.Theseaircraftaretypicallyoperatedbyprivateenterprisesandairtaxioperators.ThemainmanufacturersofaircraftofthatcategoryareDassault,Gulfstream,Beechcraft,CanadairandCessna.PrivateAircraftThiscategoryincludesallremainingaircraftnotconsideredinthepreviouscategoriesbutequippedforIFRoperation.U.S.ModelInputs

DelayGrowthDerivedfromFreeFlight,PreservingAirlineOpportunity,byCaptainRussellChew,Fig.4Largerangeofthisvariabledueto:Russ'studywasusingconservativegoodweatherdayestimateThisrepresentsdelayoveroptimum(notschedule)ThistakesintoaccountunmettrafficgrowthduetocapacityconstraintsEuropeanModelInputs

DelayGrowthNeedsimilardataforEuropeU.S.ModelInputs

TrafficGrowthStartwithcurrentnumberofairplanes,addnewdeliveriesandsubtractretiringplaneseachyear1997TotalNumberofAirplanes 5194(ATA)NewDeliveriesperYr(1998to2007)233(BoeingCMO) NewDeliveriesperYr(2008to2017)326(BoeingCMO)EuropeanModelInputs

TrafficGrowthNeedsimilarnumbersforEuropeU.S.ModelInputs

TrafficGrowthNumberofplanesatstartofmodel:5194(fromATA)Numberofplanesin2015:Lowestimate:

8054Mediumestimate: 8943HighEstimate: 9289EuropeanModelInputs

TrafficGrowthNeedsimilarnumbersforEuropeU.S.ModelInputs

InfrastructureModelincludesbothAOCandATCInfrastructureCPDLCBuildshaveanassociated“DelayReductionEffectiveness”whichrepresentsthepercentageofdatalink-relateddelaythatisaffectedwitheachbuild.U.S.ModelInputs

InfrastructureEuropeanModelInputs

InfrastructureModelincludesbothAOCandATCInfrastructureVDLMode2AOCinfrastructureassumedtobereadyatstartofmodelATCInfrastructurehas3stages:CPDLCBuildshaveanassociated“DelayReductionEffectiveness”whichrepresentsthepercentageofdatalink-relateddelaythatisaffectedwitheachbuild.Stage0tiedtoAOCinfrastructurereadinessAOCbenefitsbiggestdriver(messagecostreductionandpenaltyavoidance)noATCdelayreductionbenefitshighforwardfitofVDL-2equipment,lowretrofitStage1tiedtoATCinfrastructurereadinessbothATCdelayreductionandAOCbenefitsincreasedforwardfit,lowretrofitendswhenairlinesequipmoreaggressivelyduetoinfrastructurematurityandrealizedbenefitsStage2tiedtoATCinfrastructurematuritybothATCdelaydelayreductionandAOCbenefitslowchangeinforwardfit,highretrofitU.S.ModelInputs

ThreeStagesofEquipageU.S.ModelInputs

EquipageStage02000200520102015Stage1ATCBld1Start(2002,2003,2004)ATCBld1/ATCBld1A/ATCBld2EndStage22015Bld1Bld1ABld2EquippageStagesInfrastructureBuildsNote:AllgraphicsreflectbasecasevaluesCNS/ATMFocusTeamModelInputs

EquipageTimingVariablesModelInputs

EquipagePercentagesATMInfrastructurecostsareincludedEquipmentcostsassumesminimalavionics/flightdeckimpact:

CMU,VDR,wiring,anddedicateddisplayEuropeanModelInputs

CostsAOAvs.GACSStep1.Hardware(CMU/VDR)+AOASWStep2.GACS+ATC+restofATNORStep1.Hardware(CMU/VDR)+GACS+ATNStep2.ATCDECISION:forfirstrunofthemodeltoputanadequaterangeonthecostofequipageandATCbenefittimingtorepresenteitherconfiguration.ModelInputs

CostsModelInputs

CostsMaintenancecosts:10%peryearofATCupgradecostMessagecosts:$.180-1MillionKbits;$.141-4MillionKbits;$.104-8;$.068-15;$.05>1AOCNon-AvailabilityCosttoanairlineofnothavingfullACARScapability

($16,$32,$48perflight)AOCmessagecostreductionper-bitsavingsandmessagelengthreduction

(discountfactor0.67,0.8,0.86)AOCPenaltyAvoidanceforVDL-2equipageper-Kilobitpenalty(3%,5%,10%increaseperyear)Monthlysurcharge($900,$1000,$1100permonth)ModelInputs

AOCBenefitsModelInputs

AOCBenefitsModelOutputs

AOCOnlyLet’slookatAOConlyscenarioAOC-onlyscenariousesStage0equipageratesonly:ForwardFitperYear 25%,60%,75%RetrofitperYear 2%,3%,4%AOCOnly

(Stage0EquipageRates)

CostbyCategoryAOCOnly(Stage0EquipageRates)DeterministicSensitivityCNS/ATMFocusTeamAOCOnly(Stage0EquipageRates)CumulativeProbabilityDistributionCNS/ATMFocusTeamAOCOnly

(Stage0EquipageRates)

ValueofPerfectInformationandControlValueofPerfectInformation:Thevalueyoushouldbewillingtopaytoknowtheoutcomeofanuncertaintybeforeyoumaketheinvestmentdecision.ValueofPerfectControl:Thevalueyoushouldbewillingtopaytoensurethattheoutcomeofanuncertaintycomesouttothemostfavorableoutcomeforyourdecision.Note:Thesecalculationsassumea25%chanceofthe10thpercentileeventoccuring,a50%chanceofthe50thpercentileeventoccuring,anda25%chanceofthe90thpercentileeventoccuring.SelectedChanceVariables

VOPI VOPC

EquippageScenario 0.0 $301M AOCNAStrtYr 0.0 148 AOCNA($perFlt) 0.0 349 AOCCostperFlt 0.0 98 Delayreductionbenefitsappliedtoallairplanes,notjustthoseequippedATCDelayReductionBenefitBasedonAtlantastudy;scaledstudybenefitsAssigneddelayreduction%toeachFAABuildUsesthefollowingformula:AtlantaNAS-widebenefits*discountfactor*annualdelaygrowthAtlantaNAS-widebenefits=11,491,387minutessavedinCruise/TerminalTransitionphaseofflightDiscountFactor=30%,50%,or80%ofAtlanta-studybenefitsAnnualDelayGrowth=2.5%,7%,11%peryearDatalinkModel

ATCBenefitsModelInputs

Delayvs.EquippageCurveFullDatalinkBenefitsbyCategoryCNS/ATMFocusTeamFullDatalinkCostbyCategoryCNS/ATMFocusTeamFullDatalinkDeterministicSensitivityCNS/ATMFocusTeamFullDatalinkCumulativeProbabilityDistributionCNS/ATMFocusTeamFullDatalink

ValueofPerfectInformationandControlValueofPerfectInformation:Thevalueofknowingtheoutcomeofanuncertaintybeforeyoumaketheinvestmentdecision.ValueofPerfectControl:Thevalueyouofensuringthattheoutcomeofanuncertaintycomesouttothemostfavorableoutcomeforyourdecision.Note:Thesecalculationsassumea25%chanceofthe10thpercentileeventoccurring,a50%chanceofthe50thpercentileeventoccurring,anda25%chanceofthe90thpercentileeventoccurring.SelectedChanceVariables

VOPI VOPC

EquippageScenario 0.0 $520M DelayIncr%perYr 0.0 512 ATCBuild1AEff% 0.0 25 AtlantaDiscountFactor 0.0 452 AOCNAStrtYr 0.0 242 ATCSWUpgrade$K 0.0 177 AOCNA($perFlt) 0.0 575 FullDatalink--CashFlowSummary$9BillionFullDatalinkFF--CashFlowSummary$3.5BillionFullDatalinkRetrofit

CashFlowSummary$3.4BillionAOCOnly--CashFlowSummary$3.5BillionAOCOnlyFF

CashFlowSummary$2.4BillionAOCOnlyRetrofit

CashFlowSummary$1.3BillionROI’sforDatalinkScenariosCNS/ATMFocusTeamConclusionsAOCdrivesforwardfit,ATCdrivesretrofitBenefitsofAOCenableequipageInallcasesdatalinkshowsareasonablereturnoninvestmentCumulativecashflowsexhibitlong-terminfrastructureinvestments(longertermROI)ThevalueofmaintainingAOCdatalinkcapabilityisoneoftheprimarycost-avoidancedriversForwardFitequipageshouldstartASAPtoavoidhighretrofitcostsConclusions,cont’dRisksassociatedwithgoingtoATCdatalinkaremitigatedbytheneedtopreserveAOCATCdelayreductionbenefitsapplytotheCruise/TerminalTransitionphaseofflightonlyVariablesthatneedthemostattentioninfluenceATCbenefitsPotentialBenefitofFutureDatalinkEnhancementsInternational/NationalImprovedTFMCollaborativeTrafficManagementEnhancedArrivalPlanningIntegratedAirportFlowPlanningCoordinatedTFMSystemNational/Local/Airport1.PlanningCapacityTransitionsC1-1C1-5C1-4C1-3C1-2ADSintentinformationallowsforimprovedterminalareaarrivalflowplanning.CNS/ATMFocusTeamAdditionalGates,TaxiwaysandApronsReduceScheduleUncertaintyImprovedSurfaceSequencing,SchedulingandRoutingImprovedSurfaceGuidanceandControlVisualThroughputinCATIIIbGoodVisibilityLowVisibility2.SurfaceCapacityTransitionsC2-1C2-5C2-4C2-3C2-2DetroitDigitalTaxiClearancebaseline.UseCPDLCtoprovidetaxiclearance.CNS/ATMFocusTeam3.FinalApproach/InitialDepartureCapacityTransitionsIncreasedAvailabilityofApproaches/DeparturesReducedPreventionBufferReducedInterventionBufferAirplane-LevelCapacityEffectsSystem-LevelCapacityEffectsReducedSeparationMinimaIncreasedRunwayUtilizationC3-3C3-4ReducedlongitudinalspacingC3-5ReducedSeparationMinima3-DimensionalApproachesOnlyC3-8C3-7C3-2C3-1AdditionalRunwaysC3-6ReducedSeparationMinimaReducedlateralspacingbetweenrunwaysUseADStoreducelateralseparationforindependentoperationsto2500’.CNS/ATMFocusTeam4.Approach/DepartureTransitionCapacityTransitionsReducedSeparationMinimaMoreTransitionsReducedPreventionBufferIncreasedAvailabilityofExistingTransitionsAirplane-LevelCapacityEffectsSystem-LevelCapacityEffectsReducedInterventionBufferGroundVectoringC4-2C4-1ReducedInterventionBufferGroundGuidancewithA/CtrajectoriesC4-3ReducedInterventionBufferA/CGuidanceC4-4C4-5C4-6C4-7UseADSwithCTASformoreefficientsequencing.UseCPDLCwith4-DNavforaccuratearrivalatthefinalapproachfix.TBDCNS/ATMFocusTeamReducedSeparationMinimaTBDReducedInterventionBufferReducedPreventionBufferReducedPreventionBufferLowercontrollerworkloadStatevectorpredictionNewarkstudybaseline.DataLinkusedforClearancesandTransferofCommADSusedtoprovidemed-termstatevectorinformationtoCTASforimprovedsequencingandspacing.4-Dcontract:ADSforintent,andCPDLCfortrajectorycoordination.ORImprovedperformanceofCPDLCallowsforreducedcontrollerintervention.5.TMAArrival/DepartureCapacityTransitionsMorePublishedSIDsandSTARsAirplane-LevelCapacityEffectsSystem-LevelCapacityEffectsMoreVer