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更新日志更新日志125.632合并重复题更新至33更新频率表2频数题出现次1手机稀有金32健身中心建游泳23Cookbook公司开图书14软件公司临时55.老板以前16.提高地铁载客27.服装店和音乐88.校医院私立医院对39.2311.减少新航412.奢侈化妆品公213.摩托车公司生产314.bookSTORE要不215.摩托公司收216.轮胎公317.organicfood318.健身器材和杂219.工作建120.小岛举办国际比321.投资股票频数题出现次1手机稀有金32健身中心建游泳23Cookbook公司开图书14软件公司临时55.老板以前16.提高地铁载客27.服装店和音乐88.校医院私立医院对39.2311.减少新航412.奢侈化妆品公213.摩托车公司生产314.bookSTORE要不215.摩托公司收216.轮胎公317.organicfood318.健身器材和杂219.工作建120.小岛举办国际比321.投资股票还是房地522.环境条423.HR要为324.开连锁药325.大超市和当地小226.CEO227.luxury428.轮胎公司（16合并1130.cereal’schildren231.技术投资增加员工效232.给高级轿车打广133.研发再生能1135.localsandwich加盟连锁136.George开连锁137.CEO让CFO投资公寓出138.投资公司三家13七宗罪简述:(FromCD七宗罪简述:(FromCD第一宗罪:无因果联系Theauthorcommitsafallacyofcausaloversimplification.ThelineofthereasoningisbecauseAoccurredbeforeB,theformereventisresponsibleforthe(TheauthorusesthepositivecorrelationbetweenAandBtoestablishcausality.However,thefactthatAcoincideswithBdoesnotnecessarilyprovethatAcausedB.)Butthisisfallaciousreasoningunlessotherpossiblecausalexplanationshavebeenconsideredandruledout.Forexample,perhapsCisthecauseoftheseeventsorperhapsBiscausedby第二宗罪Insufficient-sampleTheevidencetheauthorprovidesisinsufficienttosupporttheconclusiondrawnfromit.Oneexampleislogicallyunsoundedtoestablishageneralconclusion(Thestatisticsfromonlyafewrecentyearsarenotnecessarilyagoodindicatoroffuturetrends),unlessitcanbeshownthatA1isrepresentativeofallA.Itispossible Infact,infaceoflimitedevidence,theconclusionthatBiscompletely第三宗罪:错误类比(basedonafalseanalogy)<横向>TheargumentrestsontheassumptionthatAisanalogoustoBinallThisassumptionisweak,sincealthoughtherearepointsofcomparisonbetweenAandB,thereismuchdissimilarityaswell.Forexample,A...,however,B Thus,itislikelymuchmoredifficultforBto第四宗罪allthingsareequal<纵向Theauthorcommitsthefallacyof“allthingsareThefactthathappenedtwoyearsagoisnotasoundevidencetodrawaconclusionTheauthorassumeswithoutjustificationthatthebackgroundconditionshaveremainedthesameatdifferenttimesoratdifferentlocations.However,itisnotclearinthisargumentwhetherthecurrentconditionsatAAarethesameastheyusedtobetwoyearsago.Thusitisimpossibletoconclude第五宗罪Either-OrchoiceTheauthorassumesthatAAandBBaremutuallyexclusivealternativesandthereisnoroomforamiddleground.However,theauthorprovidesnoreasonforimposinganher-oCommonsensetellsusthatadjustingbothAAandBBmightproducebetter4第六宗罪surveyisThepoll第六宗罪surveyisThepollcitedbytheauthoristoovaguetobeTheclaimdoesnotindicatewhoconductedthepoll,whoresponded,orwhen,whereandhowthepollwasconducted.(Lackinginformationaboutthenumberofpeoplesurveyedandthenumberofrespondents,itisimpossibletoaccessthevalidityoftheresults.Forexample,if200personsweresurveyedbutonly2responded,theconclusionthat...wouldbehighlysuspect.Becausetheargumentoffersnoevidencethatwouldruleoutthiskindofinterpretations,)Untilthesequestionsareanswered,theresultsofthesurveyareworthlessasevidencefor第七宗罪gratuitousassumptionTheauthorfalselydependsongratuitousassumptionHowever,noevidenceisstatedintheargumenttosupportthisassumption.Infact,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.Forexample,itismorelikely Therefore,thisargumentisunwarrantedwithoutrulingsuch5目622.环境条令21.投资股票还是房地产20.小岛举办国际比赛19.工作建议18.健身器材和杂志17.ORGANICFOOD16.轮胎公司15.摩托公司收购14.BOOKSTORE是不是要给畅销书打折13.摩托车公司生产线12.奢侈化妆品公司11.减少新航班9.8.校医院私立医院对比7.服装店和音乐店6.提高地铁载客量5.老板以前是4.软件公司临时工3.目622.环境条令21.投资股票还是房地产20.小岛举办国际比赛19.工作建议18.健身器材和杂志17.ORGANICFOOD16.轮胎公司15.摩托公司收购14.BOOKSTORE是不是要给畅销书打折13.摩托车公司生产线12.奢侈化妆品公司11.减少新航班9.8.校医院私立医院对比7.服装店和音乐店6.提高地铁载客量5.老板以前是4.软件公司临时工3.COOKBOOK公司开图书馆2.健身中心建游泳池91.手机稀有金属8轮胎公司（16合并HR要为业绩下滑负责（23合并 38.投资公司三家店 737.CEOCFO投资公寓出租36GEORGE开连锁店35.LOCALSANDWICH34.33.研发再生能源32.给高级轿车打广告31.技术投资增加员工效率轮胎公司（16合并HR要为业绩下滑负责（23合并 38.投资公司三家店 737.CEOCFO投资公寓出租36GEORGE开连锁店35.LOCALSANDWICH34.33.研发再生能源32.给高级轿车打广告31.技术投资增加员工效率30．CEREAL’SCHILDREN27.LUXURY26.CEO建议25.大超市和当地小店24.开连锁药店23.HR要为业绩下滑负责v1——————－v2——————－V3——————－byAAv1——————－v2——————－V3——————－byAA波动很大有FORECAST说公司的生产量会持续增加并且购买的贵金属也会越来越多V1AcellmanufacturerCellphoneproductionrequiressomepreciousmetals,suchas...Thepriceofthesemetalsincreasedanddecreaseddramatically.Weforecastthatthegrowthofthesalesofthecellphonewillcontinue.Therefore,weplantobuylargequantitiesofthesemetalsimmediatelytolockinthecostsandguaranteeV2“cellphonemanufacturingrequiresalargevarietyofpreciousandexpensivemetasl,suchlikegold,silverandcopper.andwefoundthepriceofthesemetalssometimeschangeddramatically.forcastagrowthofourcellphonedivisionandhgh-oumepruchasinglookingstrong.如果我们购买(并且库存?)Alargeamountfothesemetals,lockourcosts.Bydoingso,wecanlockinourcostsavingsandguaranteeahh-‐lvlprofit.”因为cellphone的原材料金属很贵，且金属的价格此起彼伏 么的影响和保护产品的生产线所以stockholderlockinthecostforthosematerials(lockin有啥特别意思)lockinsavings用作以后来保证产业的高利润(收入)有个report说手机生产过程需要一些昂贵的稀有金属，类似于金银神马的，厂商说过去年中他们对金属的需求一直扩大，在此过程中见证了金属价格的大幅的上升与下跌。由于他们预测此后他们对手机的生产仍会扩大对金属的需求将会一直很大，厂商认为此时买下现在生产线上需要的largequantityofmetalslockguaranteeahighprofitinthefuture. 生产手机需要大量的金属，比如金银之类的，在过去十年中厂商对这些原材料的需求不增加，并且因此影响到这些金属的价格大幅度变动。由于预测说今后手机需求将继续不断增并且对原材料的购买也将不断增加，因此可以考虑通过在现在大量购买这些原材料作为81.手机稀有金属cost1.2.时间全等:过去几年涨价不代表未来会涨价，cost1.2.时间全等:过去几年涨价不代表未来会涨价，如果跌价会给工厂照成损失充分必要条件提前购入材料并不是保证利润的唯一条件。因为价格波动可能上浮或下降该贵金属是否在决定手机成本中起重要作用?可能影响甚3.还有公司forecast可靠性:他们是根据什么资料来做的，具不具有普遍性？4.无关假设提前购买就一定会保证利润。副作用：贵重金属存储与看护需要额外的劳动力和仓储资金.这增加了隐形成本.v1——————－byv2——————－作文：swimmingpoolThefollowingappearedaspartofabusinessplancreatedbythemanagementofTakeHeartFitness“Afteropeningthenewswimmingpoolearlylastsummer,TakeHeartsawa12percentincreaseintheuseofthecenterbyitsmembers.Therefore,inordertoincreasemembershipinTakeHeart,weshouldcontinuetoaddnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyears:forexample,amultipurposegameroom,atenniscourt,andaminiaturegolfcourse.BeingtheonlycenterintheareaofferingthisrangeofactivitieswouldgiveusacompetitiveadvantageinthehealthandrecreationThefollowingappearedaspartofabusinessplancreatedbythemanagementoftheTakeHeartFitnessCenter.“Afteropeningthenewswimmingpoolearlylastsummer,TakeHeartsawa12percentincreaseintheuseofthecenterbymembers.Therefore,inordertoincreasethenumberofourmembersandthusourrevenues,whichdependonmembershipfees,we92.健身中心建游泳池shouldcontinuetoaddnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyears:forexample,amultipurposegameroom,atenniscourt,andaminiaturegolfcourse.Beingtheonlycenterintheareaofferingthisrangeofactivitiesshouldcontinuetoaddnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyears:forexample,amultipurposegameroom,atenniscourt,andaminiaturegolfcourse.Beingtheonlycenterintheareaofferingthisrangeofactivitieswouldgiveusacompetitiveadvantageinthehealthandrecreationmarket.”TakeHeart身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH现会员对中心的使用率增加了12%。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量来增加收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。错误因果关系：不能因为先建了游泳池然后使用率增加了就认为是游泳池导致了使用率增加，也许是有节假日或者天气适合锻炼，或者马上要夏天了大家要减肥，所以锻炼的人多了建立这么多新的设施必然会有很多新的投入，这样不一定可以增加收益和竞争优势无关假设:认为增加游乐项目就能增加会员和利润没有根据。顾客除了要求更多新颖的游乐设施，对服务的要求和会员fee也很重其他游乐场所降低会员费，提coupon，bonus，priceadvantage之类的同样也有竞争力v1——————v1——————－softwaredesigncompanyprofitv2——————－bysoftware&leadoftheatuoindustryv3-——————by4.软件公司临时工3.COOKBOOK公司开图书馆最失败的估计是作文了。题目倒是很熟悉的题材，某Software公司希望像汽车工业企业一样，通过降低工资和雇佣零时工来减小企业投入。心情澎湃地写好文章，想趁最后时间的几秒调整一下格式v4——————一个软件公最失败的估计是作文了。题目倒是很熟悉的题材，某Software公司希望像汽车工业企业一样，通过降低工资和雇佣零时工来减小企业投入。心情澎湃地写好文章，想趁最后时间的几秒调整一下格式v4——————一个软件公司因为利润下降，要学习汽车公司的办法削减预算，具体的把长期员工换成临时工，少工资开支，因为可以通过自动化来替代JetSoftwarecompanydidnotgainanincreaseofprofitinthepastthreeyears.Inordertocutbudgetcosts,thecompanydecidetoreplaceitsfull--‐ieemployeewithtemporaryworkforce.Thereasonisthatautoindustryhasappliedthisstrategyandreplacemanythepaytoanytemporaryemployeesisonlyhalforlessthanthatofl-‐ieemployees,withoutanybenefitsorbonus.Therefore,ifourcompanyapplythesamestrategyandswitch25%ofthful--‐ieworkforcetotemporarylabor,itwillleadagreatincreaseinprofitandgainastabilityinthelongterm.错误类比：将汽车公司与软件公司类别不当，两个行业都不一样，软件公司对技术要求更高，不像汽车公司对员工要求不是很高，所以可以完全按照价格选择员工而不用考虑其他的因素。因果关系：profit除了考cost还要考虑income，也有可能临时工不如熟练efficiency高，同样的工时但是产量更低，因此支出节约的部分不敌收入减少的部分，所以利润也不一定升高。无根据假设：增加临时工一定能blostercurrentprofitsintheshorttermandbenefitthecompanyinthelongterm?将四分之一的员工换成临时工，不能保证员工loyaltyresponsibility，或许换临时工也会让正式员工感到解雇危机，不能安心工作，如此一来就没办法保证stabilityinlongterm了。4.雇佣的临时工可能同时在几家公司打工，而且这些公司也都是softwaredesign。市场竞争环境下，这些design公司相对其他领域的公司更加看重公司内部idea的保密工作，而且这样的design公司占领市场一个非常有效的方式就是开发出一款新好用的软样雇佣大量的临时工很可能让公司的idea泄露v1——————是说一家企业生产衣服，sellhottrendclothestov1——————是说一家企业生产衣服，sellhottrendclothestoyoungintheoutletsduriingthe5years.Businessisrunningverywell.Themanagmethasplanttoopen125retailstoresintheshoppingmallacrossthecountry.TheownerofCEOisformerrockstarandhewillhelpbusinesssuccesswithhisreputation.thefinanicalanalystcounragehisclientstobuythatcompanystocks.retailoutletretail，然后说因为这个公司的管理层大刀阔斧地改革并且由于这JJ里有;throughvariousretailstors销售，根据近五年销售情况看，打算改变市场策略，建立自己销售网络，全国100多家。再就是根据很强“管理”团队，CEO很成功，曾经是rockstar,所以相信他的名声会有助于产品销售。（每个都可攻击125retailstoresinshoppingmallsalloverthe3CEOrecognitionandstarfame一V4financialanalystwroteamemototheInvestmentDirector.因为一个公司叫CrowBrandmanufacturest--‐shir,jeanswhichhasbecomeahottrendinyouthapparel.Rightnow,thiscompanysellsmostoftheirproductsthroughvariousoutlets.Moreover,itsmanagementteamhasveryaggressiveplantoopen125storesinshoppingmalls.ThefinancialanalyststronglyrecommendhisclientsbuyCrowBrand'sstock.ItsCEO,whoisapreviousrockstar,willalsomakethiscompanyafashion.时地全等：该公salegrowth已经持续5年不能表示今年以及将来它会继续增长。错误类比：outletsshoppingmalls的销售模式和strategies不一样，CrowBrand通过variousoutlets去销售它们的产品，而如果它们open125storesshoppingmalls就不一定能保证它们的产品能给投资者带来更好的收益了。无端假设：CEOFormerrockstar代表products可以吸引众多的>>>考古5.消费者来购买。因为消费者不会消费者来购买。因为消费者不会关心她曾经是不是rockstarv1-——————analystAcitycouncilAcity－waystrategytwowaystrategy目標是減少交通traffic增加ridership,增加了affordinghousing和鐵路Station,butithasonly15%increaseontheridership還是坐地鐵的人，theprojectonthe108thstreethasspentonly5millions,butithas30%increaseontheridership還是坐地鐵的人.Therefore,theanalystsuggeststhattheremainingbudgetedonthe82ndstreetstationshouldredirectto108th.V2——————－讲政府投资在两个车站建立周围住房和行人设施，来增加ridershipontrain和改善交通。结果发现在82nd街站投了30million，ridership只增加了15%，120nd街站投了mion，rdershp增加了30%。所以觉得120nd街站更加efectve，应该把所有的nvetment都投在这里。>>>考古两部分：1）在车站旁边修大量affordablehousing；2）15102ndmillion，102ndridership30%。所以说明102nd车站的project比较有效。所以，analyst提出，为了让资金得到更有效的利用，接下来应该把本来想投给82nd车站的funds，redirect到102nd车站的project上去，这样整个资金效率就提高了。安羽恩6.提高地铁载客量一个地方要在为了交通问题，提出两种方法：1）commutetrai一个地方要在为了交通问题，提出两种方法：1）commutetrai的地方兴建大家买得起的房子2）（不确定给了一个过去5年的数据：1）thestation:afewmillion,increase30%结论：120ndstreetstation这个地方更有效率。120ndstreetstationByrideship，82ndStreetStation102ndStreetstation附近投资居民去，作者发现，82nd，102nd82ndridership15%，102ndridership30%，所以投资效率低。未来几年应该把剩下的用于82ndprojet102ndprojetBy82nd102ndStreetStation2-part-strategyridership15%（数据记不清了）,102nd，ridership30%，所以为了更有效率的提高ridership，建议把双方的remainingbudget互换。错误类比：两station的具体情况不一样不能直接比较，可能102（120）station比82覆盖更多的交通线路，不能以投资额多少来判断投资效果。错误因果102stationridership的增长可能不是投资导致的，还可能是其他原因，比如线路增加，服务质量提升等。时地全等：过去5年的情况不一定适用与现在和未来几年的情况，过去的ridership的增加可能跟整体经济情况有关，所以把剩下的project互换不一定能导致预设的效果v1-——————作文：一个musicstore在一个radioadvertisementcampaign开始后foottrafficinthestoremusicstoreTheownerofClarlo'sClothingincreasesalesandprofits就要和把现在用的newspaperadvertisement换成radio思路：1.differentindustry，differencesoutweigh7.服装店和音乐店increasefoottrafficinthestoreincreasesalesandprofits，忽略了其他因素：maybethemusicstoreincreasefoottrafficinthestoreincreasesalesandprofits，忽略了其他因素：maybethemusicstoreoffereddiscount作文题目大概是这么个意思，在这个district里面，有一家musicstore,最近开始newradioadvertisingcampaigncampaignwealthenoughtoretireCarlo'sClothing的店也想开始卖music相关的东西从而获得更多受益。然后就是那一段话。V3————————byV4————————Dicsstoreclothingstoreradio的，之前看了机经，感谢！不过考场的键盘真心不好用，经常打错字，崩溃！V5——————radioadvertisementv6————————DiscDepotCarlo’sClothingradioadvertisingcampaignnewspaperadvertisementsV7————————theradioadvertisingcampaignDiscDepotCarlo’sadvertisements的那篇ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheownerofCarlo'sClothingtothestaff:"SinceDiscDepot,themusicstoreonthenextblock,begananewradioadvertisingcampaignlastyear,itsbusinesshasgrowndramatically,asevidencedbythelargeincreaseinfoottrafficintothestore.WhiletheDiscDepot'sownershaveapparentlybecomewealthyenoughtoretire,profitsatCarlo'sClothinghaveremainedstagnantforthepastthreeyears.Inordertoboostoursalesandprofits,weshouldthereforeswitchfromnewspaperadvertisingtofrequentradioadvertisementslikethoseforDiscDepot."牛奶拌shouldbeconsideredandruledout.4.错误比较-时间纵向shouldbeconsideredandruledout.4.错误比较-时间纵向v1-——————v2-——————先，大学医院比私人医院少请15%的医生，大学医院治疗疾病的成功率比私人医院低院提供care的质量是不如私人医院的。v3-——————作文是校医院私人医院对比，很好攻击。我找的点是1.这个regon不能代表全国，可能这个regon的校医院水平低于全国平均；2。医生做研究可能发现新疗法，医护人员参加教学可以updateskThefollowingappearedinanarticleinthehealthsectionofa“Thereisacommonmisconceptionthatuniversityhospitalsarebetterthancommunityorprivatehospitals.Thisnotionisunfounded,however:theuniversityhospitalsinourregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors,havea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients,makefarlessoverallprofit,andpaytheirmedicalstaffconsiderablylessthandoprivatehospitalsFurthermore,manydoctorsatuniversityhospitalstypicallydividetheirtimeamongteachingconductingresearch,andtreatingpatients.Fromthisitseemsclear8.校医院私立医院对比15%20%，总体利15%20%，总体利falseanalogy：将大学医院与所有其他医院相比较。大学医院与其他医院有好多不同点，例如在规模上，医生质量上，所接纳病人的病情上等；样本问题以偏概全：仅仅一个region的例子就推出所有的大学医院都不好，这generalization是绝对不严谨的；Itisentirelypossiblethat这个地方的只是一个特例，很有可能在别的地方大学医院成功率就比较高；lowsuccessrate并不代表lowqualityofcare（1中提及的所接纳病人的病情上这一点，如果大学医院里的都是疑难杂症，病入膏肓的病人，而其他医院里的病人都只是小毛病，那当然大学医院的successrate低）工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步Inthisargumenttheauthorconcludesthatuniversityhospitalsprovidenobettercarethanprivateorcommunityhospitals.Theauthorbasesthisconclusiononthefollowingclaimsaboutuniversityhospitals:theonesinthisregionemploy15percentfewerdoctors;theyhavea20percentlowersuccessrateintreatingpatients;theypaytheirstaffslessmoney;theymakelessprofitthancommunityhospitals;andtheyutilizedoctorswhodividetheirtimebetweenteaching,researchandtreatingpatients.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralreasons.Themostegregiousreasoningerrorintheargumentistheauthor'suseofevidencepertainingtouniversityhospitalsinthisregionasthebasisforageneralizationaboutalluniversityhospitals.Theunderlyingassumptionoperativeinthisinferenceisthatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals.Noevidenceisofferedtosupportthisgratuitousassumption.Secondly,theonlyrelevantreasonofferedinsupportoftheclaimthatthequalityofcareislowerinuniversityhospitalsthanitisatotherhospitalsisthefactthatuniversityhospitalshavealowersuccessrateintreatingpatients.Butthisreasonisnotsufficienttoreachtheconclusioninquestionunlessitcanbeshownthatthepatientstreatedinbothtypesofhospitalssufferedfromsimilartypesofmaladies.Forexample,ifuniversityhospitalsroutinelytreatpatientssufferingfromrarediseaseswhereasotherhospitalstreatonlythosewhosufferfromknowndiseasesandillnesses,thedifferenceinsuccessrateswouldnotbeindicativeofthequalityofcarereceived.Finally,theauthorassumesthatthenumberofdoctorsahospitalemploys,itsrateintreatingpatients,theamountitpaysitsstaff,andtheprofitsitearnsareallreliableindicatorsofthequalityofcareitdelivers.Noevidenceisofferedtosupportthisassumptionnorisitobviousrateintreatingpatients,theamountitpaysitsstaff,andtheprofitsitearnsareallreliableindicatorsofthequalityofcareitdelivers.Noevidenceisofferedtosupportthisassumptionnorisitobviousthatanyofthesefactorsislinkedtothequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.Moreover,thefactthatdoctorsinuniversityhospitalsdividetheirtimeamongmanytasksfailstodemonstratethattheydoapoorerjoboftreatingpatientsthandoctorsatotherkindsofhospitals.Infact,itishighlylikelythattheydoabetterjobbecausetheyaremoreknowledgeablethanotherdoctorsduetotheirteachingandresearch.Inconclusion,theauthor'sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethatuniversityhospitalsinthisregionarerepresentativeofalluniversityhospitals,aswellasestablishingacausallinkbetweenthevariousfactorscitedandthequalityofcaredeliveredtopatients.v1-——————AW:狗主见过这个题目，商业选址的，conclusionlookforHelioswhenseekingfornewbusinessopportunitiesoranewlocation，因为这个城市是industrialcenter，recessionunemploymentratemanufacturingjobs，expandeconomicbase，想要吸引更researchinnovativetechnologies的公司。挺好攻击的。Thefollowingappearedaspartofanarticleinamagazinedevotedtoregionallife.“CorporationsshouldlooktothecityofHelioswhenseekingnewbusinessopportunitiesoranewlocation.Evenintherecentrecession,Helios’sunemploymentratewaslowerthantheregionalaverage.Itistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,andhistoricallyithasprovidedmorethanitsshareoftheregion’smanufacturingjobs.Inaddition,Heliosisattemptingtoexpanditseconomicbasebyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativetechnologies.”1.无根据假设：Hindustrialcenteroftheregioncompaniesthat9.onresearchonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativetechnologieswillachievein分的竞争，以及可能出现的不利政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。因果关系：expandeconomicbaseattract因为H地区industrialandmanufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可innovativetechnologiesandresearchlaborpool，那么很可能导致失败。Hlessavailableworkforce，企业就必须提高wage才能吸引他们，从而提高了cost。InthisargumentcorporationsareurgedtoconsiderthecityofHelioswhenseekinganewlocationornewbusinessopportunities.Tosupportthisrecommendation,theauthorpointsoutthatHeliosistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,providingmostoftheregion’s-itisargued,effortsarecurrentlyunderwaytoexpandtheeconomicbaseofthecitybyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativetechnologies.Thisargumentisproblematicfortworeasons.Tobeginwith,itisquestionablewhethertheavailablelaborpoolinHelioscouldsupportalltypesofcorporations.GiventhatHelioshasattractedmainlyindustrialandmanufacturingcompaniesinthepast,itisunlikelythatthelocalpoolofprospectiveemployeeswouldbesuitableforcorporationsofothertypes.Forexample,theneedsofresearchanddevelopmentcompanieswouldnotbemetbyalaborforcetrainedinmanufacturingskills.Forthisreason,it’sunlikelythatHelioswillbesuccessfulinitsattempttoattractcompaniesthatfocusorresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativeAnotherproblemwiththeavailableworkforceisitssize.DuetothelowerthanaverageunemploymentrateinHelios,corporationsthatrequirelargenumbersofworkerswouldnotfindHeliosattractive.ThefactthatfewpersonsareoutofworksuggeststhatnewcorporationswillhavetoeitherattractnewworkerstoHeliosorpaytheexistingworkershigherwagesinordertolurethemawayfromtheircurrentjobs.Neitherofthesealternativesseemsenticingtocompaniesseekingtorelocate.Inconclusion,theauthorhasnotsucceededinprovidingcompellingreasonsforselectingHeliosasthesiteforacompanywishingtorelocate.Infact,thereasonsofferedfunctionbetterasreasonsfornotrelocatingtoHelios.NorhastheauthorprovidedcompellingreasonsforcompaniesseekingnewbusinessopportunitiestochooseHelios.v1-——————v2——————－作文：SMARTPROincv3-——————v1-——————v2——————－作文：SMARTPROincv3-——————作文：accountingsoftwareFromGMATAWA最新题库-ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumtoateamdevelopingaccountingsoftwareforSmartProSoftware,Inc.:“Currently,moreprofessionalaccountantsuseSmartProaccountingsoftwarethananyotherbrand.However,inthemarketforpersonalaccountingsoftwareforsareoutsellingus.Insurveys,ourprofessionalcustomersrepeatedlysaythattheyhavechosenSmartProSoftwarebecauseourmostsophisticatedsoftwareproductsincludemoreadvancedspecialfeaturesthancompetingbrands.Therefore,themosteffectivewayforustoincreasesalesofourpersonalaccountingsoftwareforhomeuserswouldclearlybetoaddtheadvancedspecialfeaturesthatourprofessionalsoftwareproductscurrentlyoffer.”错误比较：他家的产品收专业人士欢迎是因为符合用户需求，thefactthatcompetitor’sproductismorepopularwithhomeusermaycontributetothegooduserexperience,integratedfunction,orbeautifuluserinterface.为功能太多，操作不便捷等原因不使用Smartpro的专业产品。v1-——————20shutdownthenewlyaddedV2——————ProvinciaAirline'sv1-——————20shutdownthenewlyaddedV2——————ProvinciaAirline'sprofitdecreasedlastyear,analystconcluded:1.oilpriceincrease;2.newflightswereaddedSinceotherairlinesalsofacedroaringoilprice,thereasonwhyprofitsdroppeddownwasthenewflights.NewflightsshouldbeV3————————油价上涨，航空公司开辟新路线，结profits。有个分析员说，因为其他公司的有profits升，说明原因不是油价上升，是新路线，所以我们要取消新pprofit20%，fuelexpenditureairlinesPrecommendremove作大死了11.减少新航增加profit，就减少飞机数量。V3ceoemailProvincialastyear增加profit，就减少飞机数量。V3ceoemailProvincialastyearprofitsdecline，oilprice正好增长，所以该公司的expenditureforfuel增加了，同时该公司去年addmoreflightsairlines也经历了油价上涨，但是甚至increaseprofit所以P公司亏损的原因一定是moreflights。为了利润，应该eliminateflighsV4email.fellover20%5充分必要条件：flightexpansionprofit错误类比increasetheirprofitabilitynumberof量，可以减少overallcost，但是revenuefromtheseflights也是同样减少。v1-——————discountbrand,luxury.CEOV2-——————majorsoccercompetition和三年后比游客多了25%。现在觉得办个12.奢侈化妆品公Long-termGrowthLong-termGrowthKallniKallonCluxuryproduct（觉得这里是一个分析点结合后面的美国分销商）havehadbeenwellknowninEurope,butinU.S.wehavehaddifficultysellinggettingmarket,ceocarefulconsideration，美国的distributor是个不错的合作对象，哦名字是Mega-Beauty神马(记得住是因为这边的彩票也叫Mega)，M公司怎么20nationaldiscountbrand，hasover1500discountstore，MagreementKgetaccesstothedistributionnetworkthatindustry,agreementKlongtermgrowth和profitability。AWAsmall，luxurycorporateceomemomega-beauty，一个美国distributor联合可以解决一直停滞不前的美国市场。并且可以earnprofit和long-terminterestdistributor20discountbrand1500v1-————————一条是生产standardmotorcycles，这种车是通过机器自动加工完成，制造效率高。结论：CEO认为这样能,makelargerprofits并提高生产效率。13.摩托车公司生产线V2-——————V2-——————totalsales2lessexpensiveluxurypotentialv3-——————standardmotorcycle和摩托车那篇，最后一句话是关掉luxury，然后新开一条standard，之后就可以produceagreaternumberofstandardbymoreefficiency,andthenincreaseprofits.V1.一个摩托车公司有两条生产线---豪华版和普通版。豪华版的零件很贵，所以生产成productionrequiresmoreexpensivematerialandlongertime;standardmotorcycles,.公司将cease豪华车生产线inordertoproduceagreatnumberofmotorcyclesmoreefficientlyandgetmoreprofits.能保证都换成standardline以后生产的摩托车数量会激增。多的利润；(2)供求情况，市场是否需要大量普通摩托等。>>>考古本月原始v1-——————本月原始v1-——————owneremailmanager：Aftersuccessfulyearsofsales,他想进一majorbookstorechainsbest-sellerbylocalchief.1.localbookstore是localization，如果换成人家的策略卖一些best-seller书，可能以前的顾客都会流略，可能有别的factors。v2——————【中寂静】考到了了书店的那道题，就是讲cookng-books的store要转换方向采用网店销售，己经很全拉V1Onelocalizedbookstoreisspecializedongourmetbooks,leadingtoasalessuccessinthelastyears.Nowinordertoboostitssales,thebookstore,ThoughtforFood,isplanningtoimplementthestrategiestakenbymajorbookstores.Thestrategyistosellbestsellersatnoprofitmargininordertoattractmorecustomers.TheownerofThoughtforFoodthinksthatbychangingthestrategy,thebookstorecanachieveafastergrowingsalesinthefuture.>>>考古TYHx会好运香奶奶14.BOOKSTORE是不是要给畅销书打折V2经理写了个邮件:咱们cookstore,由于使用了in-store的demonstration所以利润V2经理写了个邮件:咱们cookstore,由于使用了in-store的demonstration所以利润,in-housedemonstration砍掉来弥补打折损失。酱紫,就可以吸引更多客户,增长利润。V3emailmanager的讲话bookstore,chainsinternetbookshops学习,bestsellers形式,bestsellersdiscount,discontinue它的lost,它认为这么做店里的生意一定会更好的。店里跟厨师的合作来V4说的是一个当地的书店,COOKING之类的服务,年来利润都一直稳定着。所以这个书店提出来要学习INTERNETBOOKSTORE或者chainbookstoresLOCALdiscount,同时需要取消掉原来的cooking来弥补这个discount造成的损失错误类比1:bookstoreschains&internetbookshops与我们这家cook相关的bookstore无理假2:profitwell,变化是不是会得不偿失。作者假设了新的做法会更好递进一步3:cooking非此即彼4:除了这个办法没有其他更好的了V1－－－－－－－－byreesonawa:中了FleetAuto那篇v2-——————by15.摩托公司收购market，然后想收购一家G国的Futuro（不知道有没记错）公司，说G国人口增长快啊什么的。这篇很长，很有的写哦market，然后想收购一家G国的Futuro（不知道有没记错）公司，说G国人口增长快啊什么的。这篇很长，很有的写哦且要把自己的模型和人员派去——by张言笑V2JJ10个,FleetMotors要收购国家Galaxia的一家汽车XXXAUTO。原因是这个国家的人口在迅速增长,FleetMotors扩展其已经饱和的NorthAmerican的策略、管理团队派Galaxia的公司，因为那家公司所在的FleetMotorsA。AGalaxia地区经营得很失败。作者Aautomobileautomobile（自己公司生产的automobile在北美卖得很成功）,A公司的管理团队换成自己公司的员工一定能managementteam。FleetFuturagalaxia这个国家，teamfleet的也不能保证成功，falseanalogy什么的。motorfleetGlaxiaBceoBautoproductionline，换成自己在northamericamodel。ceob公司的marketing和managementteam，换成自己的智慧库>>>考古v1-——————v1-——————employee带newemployee，新员工可以通过看老员工工作来学习，省掉了training的cost。v2-——————company，然后说toyscompany采用了一个apprenticeprogram，senioremployee交新的员工，然后还给senioremployee提供bonus。说这样可以节省掉professional1.falseanlogy玩具公司是流水线生产但是manufacture注重skills和high2.program3.forecast有问题即时program可以采用也不见得会给未来带来好吃datav3——————－坐稳tiremanufacturingcompany采取apprenticetrainingprogramV1BYatiretrainingnewemployeescomany采用了一种新的办法叫apprenticetrainingprogram主要通过给>>>考古彤宝贝16.轮胎公司employeessalarybonusapprenticeapprenticeobserve这employeessalarybonusapprenticeapprenticeobserve这senioremployeeworkinghabitsactivities然后这样比较省钱省时间。然后ceo说我们也要学习funtoys这种方法FunToyCompany采取了一个职工培训计划program，让seniorvolunteertotakeannewemployeesastheirapprentice,这样的话，newemployees就followthepatternsetsbythesenioremployees.ahumanresoucedirectorinatiremanufacturing”Thecostexpenseoftrainingthenewemployeeplaysanacompany.theFunToysimportantinthe发起一个ApprenticeProgam.seniorempoloyeesalarynewemployeecanlearnbusinesspatternsfromthesenioremployee这样Sonomoreexpensiveandcostprogramsareneeded.所以我们公司也应该象FUNToysCompany一样用这中项目降低新员工培训的成本们要立刻imitate这个模式到自己的公司来节省开支。最后一段总结一下，CEOimitate过来可能错误类比tiremanufacturingcompanyFunToysCompany因果关系-忽略他因错误类比tiremanufacturingcompanyFunToysCompany因果关系-忽略他因Decreasecostoftrainingreduceoverallcost唯一方法。要想减低总成本，还可以减少浪费，提高生产效率等错误假设Newemployeefollowthepatt