商业贸易行业跟踪报告：零售社服板块四季报前瞻

零售社服板块四季报前瞻四季度收官，消费仍在渐进复苏过程中，建议重视龙头公司业绩韧性。以下我们是对重点公司的四季报前瞻：1、零售板块（1）黄金珠宝：短期看，黄金珠宝板块修复兼具高度&弹性，长期受益于供给出清。老凤祥：预计四季度收入增5%-25%，归母净利润增2%-16%。周大生：预计四季度收入增9%-50%，归母净利润增56%-87%。潮宏基：预计四季度收入增14%-24%，归母净利润0.6-0.9亿元。中国黄金：预计四季度收入增30%-40%，归母净利润增59%-85%。（2）百货：零售国企多数在区域内规模优势显著，我们认为有望通过股权激励、引入职业经理人、资产重组等改革举措激发活力。重庆百货：我们预计，四季度收入增5%-15%，归母净利润1.5-2.2亿元。天虹股份：我们预计，四季度收入增0%-5%，归母净利润-0.5亿-0.5亿元。（3）超市：家家悦：我们预计，四季度收入增3%-8%，归母净利润增100%-167%。红旗连锁：我们预计，四季度收入增0%-5%，归母净利润增0%-10%。永辉超市：我们预计，四季度收入降5%-0%，归母净利润-8亿至1亿元。（4）安克创新：我们认为，跨境板块整体有望延续上半年景气，预计四季度收入增20%-30%，归母净利润增30%-40%。2、社服板块（1）人服：科锐国际：我们预计，4Q收入增2-28%，归母净利润0.4-0.6亿元。天目湖：我们预计，4Q收入增15-46%，归母净利润0.3-0.4亿元。中青旅：我们预计，4Q收入增52-87%，归母净利润1.0-1.1亿元。（3）餐饮：百胜中国：4Q为销售淡季，预计4Q收入增10-15%，归母净利润0.77-0.82亿元；广州酒家：我们认为4Q速冻产品销售有望提振，同时，考虑到23年中秋时点靠后，部分收入可能延后至4Q确认，我们预计，4Q收入增20-30%，归母净利润0.9-1.0亿元。【投资建议】看好性价比消费，关注出海与龙头提效机会。（1）主线一：性价比。重点关注重庆百货、老凤祥、巨子生物、家家悦，关注周大生、菜百股份、福瑞达、珀莱雅、百胜中国、海底捞，以及低价自然景区标的。（2）主线二：出海。重点关注小商品城、安克创新，关注名创优品、泡泡玛特、米奥会展、华凯易佰、特海国际。（3）主线三：预期改善下的龙头提效机会。重点关注中公教育、中国中免、北京人力、科锐国际、宋城演艺，关注爱美客、锦江酒店、华住集团、首旅酒店、传智教育、王府井。行业风险提示：消费复苏不及预期；新业态分流；行业竞争加剧；监管政策的不确定性。2行业研究·商业贸易行业2表1批零社服行业重点公司2023年%%%%5295050573805023行业研究·商业贸易行业3APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentHighlights:Q4seesconsumerrecovery;focusonleadingcompanies’resilience.Previewofkeycompanies’Q4reports:?.Retailsector(1)Jewelry:Short-termrecoverywithelasticity;long-termbenefitsfromsupplyclearance.LaoFengXiang:Q4revenueup5%-25%,NPAtSup2%-16%.ChowTaiSengJewellery:Q4revenueup9%-50%,NPAtSup56%-87%.GuangdongChjIndustry:Q4revenueup14%-24%,NPAtSRMB60-90million.ChinaNationalGoldGroup:Q4revenueup30%-40%,NPAtSup59%-85%.(2)Departmentstores:State-ownedenterpriseswithregionalscaleadvantages.ChongqingDepartmentStore:Q4revenueup5%-15%,NPAtSRMB150-220million.RainbowDepartmentStore:Q4revenueup0%-5%,NPAtSRMB-50millionto50million.(3)Supermarkets:JiajiayueGroup:Q4revenueup3%-8%,NPAtSup100%-167%.ChengduHongqiChain:Q4revenueup0%-5%,NPAtSup0%-10%.YonghuiSuperstores:Q4revenuedown5%-0%,NPAtSRMB-800millionto100million.(4)AnkerInnovationsTechnology:Cross-bordersectorexpectedtocontinuegrowth;Q4revenueup20%-30%,NPAtSup30%-40%.?.Servicesector(1)HRservices:CareerInternational:Q4revenueup2%-28%,NPAtSRMB40-60million.(2)Attractions:SongchengPerformanceDevelopment:Q4revenueRMB580-720million,NPAtSRMB100-150million.JiangsuTianmuLakeTourism:Q4revenueup15%-46%,NPAtSRMB30-40million.CHINACYTSTOURSHOLDING:Q4revenueup52%-87%,NPAtSRMB100-110million.(3)Catering:YumChinaHoldings:AssumingQ4salesrecoverto86%of2019,revenueup10%-15%,NPAtSRMB77-82million;GuangzhouRestaurant:Q4frozenproductsalesboostexpected,revenueup20%-30%,NPAtSRMB90-100million.Investmentadvice:Favorcost-effectiveconsumption,focusonoverseasexpansionandefficiencygainsinleaders.Mainthemes:(1)Valueformoney.(2)Overseasexpansion.(3)Efficiencygainsinleadersunderimprovedexpectations.RiskWarning:Recoveryweakerthanexpected;newbusinessmodelsdivertingcustomers;increasedcompetition;regulatoryuncertainty.12下下 3 45