农业环境与可持续发展研究所InstituteofEnvi

气候情景在宁夏北移冬小麦顺应气候变化

的本钱效益分析中的运用

ApplicationofClimateScenariosinCost-benefitAnalysisofWinterWheatNorthwardasAdaptationOptiontoClimateChangeinNingxia

农业环境与可继续开展研讨所

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)

No.12SouthZhongguancunAvenue

HaidianDistrict,100081,P.R.China

:+86-10-82106020;Website:

:mashm@ami.ac;shiming99ma@yahoo

北京100081海淀区中关村南大街12号中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中国农业科学院ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)马世铭研讨员博士背景－－Background研讨内容和方法－－Methods研讨结果〔现状〕－－Results〔1〕研讨结果〔预估〕－－Results〔2〕主要结论与建议－－MainconclusionsandRecommendations提纲(Outline)中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange背景--Background中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研讨区域(Studyareas)中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange宁夏年平均温度变化ChangeofannualmeantemperatureinNingxia惠农HuinongN39°泾源JingyuanN35°中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange农业顺应技术调查当地农业消费、气候、数据搜集气候情景〔A2,B2〕本钱效益分析顺应技术效果现状评价顺应技术效果的未来评价顺应对策综合评价分析气候变化对冬小麦北移的奉献冬小麦北移消费建议冬小麦北移CERES-Wheat模型中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研讨内容和方法－－MethodsInvestigationofAdaptationOptionsClimateDataClimateScenariosA2,B2Cost-benefitAssessmentofAdaptationOptionsAssessmentofAdaptationOptionsinFutureAdaptationStrategiesClimateAnalysisAdaptationRecommendationsWinterWheatNorthwardCERES-WheatModelMethods中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研讨结果〔现状〕－－Results〔1〕20072008NPVw-syuan/ha净现值元/hm2NPVw-syuan/ha净现值元/hm2吴忠Wuzhong1469.103598.20永宁Yongning2868.005264.70贺兰Helan3732.452516.85平均Means2689.803793.202007与2021年冬小麦和春小麦净利润NPV〔netpresentvalue〕ofwinterwheat-springwheatin2007and2021BCR(benefit-cost-ratio)ofwinterwheatandspringwheatintercroppingwithmaizein2007and2021中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange20072008效益冬/成本冬Bwm/Cwm效益春/成本春Bsm/Csm效益冬/成本冬Bwm/Cwm效益春/成本春Bsm/Csm吴忠Wuzhong1.010.810.810.72永宁Yongning1.171.051.110.92平均Means1.090.930.960.822007、2021年冬小麦套种玉米与春小麦套种玉米效益本钱比率冬季和春季平均温度变化

MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange

中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange冬季和春季平均最低温度变化MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary预估的冬季和春季平均温度变化

Meantemperatureimpactassessment

ofwinterunderA2andB2scenariosinirrigationareasofNingxia中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange研讨结果〔预估〕－－Results〔2〕中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange预估的冬季和春季平均最低温度变化MeanminimumtemperatureinwinterandJanuary在A2和B2情景下预估的冬小麦和春小麦产量

SimulatedyieldsofspringandwinterwheatunderA2andB2scenarios中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange未来净现值－－NPVinFuture种植冬小麦是可以带来效益的顺应措施，特别是冬小麦套种玉米和复种蔬菜Winterwheatcroppingcouldbringthebenefit,especiallybytheintercroppingwithmaizeandvegetables.It’soneofbeneficialadaptationoptions冬小麦种植本钱与春小麦种植本钱相近Thecostsbywinterwheatcroppingarenearlysameasbyspringwheatcropping1990年代最低平均温度的升高，为宁夏冬小麦种植提供了能够性Theincreasedmeanminimumtemperaturein1990’sprovidedthepossibilitytogrowwinterinNingxia总体而言，未来升高的温度将对冬小麦和春小麦消费产生不利影响Generally,thehighertemperatureinfuturewouldhaveadverseimpactsbothonspringwheatandwinterwheatproduction农户冬小麦种植志愿遭到冬小麦籽粒质量的影响Thefarmer’swillingtogrowwinterwheatisaffectedbythequalityofwinterwheatseed中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDivisionofClimateChange主要结论－－Mainconclusions建议－－Recommendations改良冬小麦质量－－Improvingthequalityofwinterwheatseeds调整灌溉制度－－Adjustmentsoftheirrigationsystems开发新种植制度－－Developmentofnewcroppingsystems提高机械化程度－－Improvingthemechanization稳定扩展冬小麦种植面积－－Steadilydevelopmentofwinterwheatplantingareas中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所气候变化研讨室

InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ResearchDiv