考研英语阅读模拟227

［模拟］考研英语阅读模拟227

多项选择

AgathaChristiewouldnothavegonenearTheMysteryoftheMissing

SolarNeutrinos,butthepuzzlerhasheldscientistsinraptfrustration

formorethan30years.Finally,theirdoggednessappearstohavepaidoff.

Acceptedtheorysaysthesun'score,heatingitselfbyatomic

fusion,shouldspewintospacevastnumbersofminusculeparticlescalled

electronneutrinos.Mostoftheseghostlyparticlestravelbillionsof

light-years,evenstraightthroughstars,withouthittinga

thing.Measuringthemisobviouslydifficult,buteverydetectoruntilnow

hasconsistentlyfoundhalf(orfewer)ofthattheorywould

predict.Physicistsbegantodoubttheirconceptaboutwhystarsshine.

Lastweek,after14monthsmeasuringfaintflashesofbluelight

fromneutrinosandotherparticlesstreamingthroughadetector6800feet

downinanOntarionickelmine,178scientistsfromCanada,theUnited

States,andBritainannouncedthattheyhavesolvedtheconundrum.Nothing

iswrongwithmodelsofthesun,saysprojectdirectorArthurMcDonaldof

Queen，sUniversityinKingston,Ont.Theneutrinosarerightwherethey

shouldbe.Somearejustindisguise.Theinstrumentfoundelectron

neutrinosmixedinwithothers,evenharder-to-detect“flavors”of

neutrinos.SowhilesomemaychangeidentityonthewaytoEarth,thegrand

totalisjustright.

NobodygreetedtheresultsmorejoyouslythanphysicistJohn

BahcalloftheInstituteforAdvancedStudyinPrinceton,N.J.Intheearly

1960s,hecalculatedhowmanyneutrinosthesun，sfurnaceshouldsend

throughEarth.It'salot:About5millionpassharmlesslythrougha

fingernail-sizeareaeverysecond.In1968,thefirstneutrinodetector

一locateddeepintheHomestakeGoldMineinSouthDakota一foundthe

discrepancy.Bahcallrecallsitasthemostembarrassingmomentofhis

professionallife.

Lastweek，sdiscoverysolvesonemysterybutraisesraises

others.Nobodyissureexactlywhyneutrinoschangetheiridentity.The

overarchingstandardmodelofphysicssaysneutrinoshavenomass；the

newresultssuggesttheymusthaveatleastatinybitofheft.

TheworkleavesAmericanscientistsdeeplyenviousofthe

Canadianlaboratory.Japan,RussiaandItalyalsohavefirst-rate

undergroundlabsshieldedfromordinarycosmicraysandsuitedfor

studyingneutrinos.AconsortiumofU.S.universitiesappliedtofederal

agenciesearlythismonthtoconstructa$200millionlaboratorymore

than7400feetdowninthenowidleHomestakeMine,deeperthananyother

country，ssetup.

i

neutrino(n.)微中子puzzler(n.)难题

consortium(n.)社团，协会，联盟

doggedness(n.)顽固，固执minuscule(adj.)微小的nickel

mine锲矿

conundrum(n.)难题discrepancy".)差异，矛盾overarch

(v.)形成拱型

heft(n.)分量，重量cosmicrays宇宙射线

raptfrustration全神贯注的、完全的受挫

第1题：

Whatdoestheword“puzzler”(Line2,Para.1)referto?

A.peoplewhoarepuzzled

B.scientistswhoarepuzzled

C.AgathaChristie

D.TheMysteryoftheMissingSolarNeutrinos

参考答案：D

答案解析：

本文主要介绍了失踪的太阳微中子之谜。第一段：失踪的太阳微中子之谜在困

扰科学家多年后被发现。第二段：传统理论对太阳核心粒子移动的解释。第三

段：科学家们宣布的新发现。第四段：物理学家JohnBahcall对这一结果感到

非常高兴。第五段：人们还不清楚为什么微中子会改变其特性。第六段：美国

人希望建立最好的实验室进行进一步的研究。[D]推断题。从第一段可

以堆断出“难题”指的是失踪的太阳微中子之谜。

第2题：

Accordingtosometheorists,howmanyelectronneutrinosshouldbe

detected?

A.abouttwicethenumberthedetectorsfound

B.alittlebitmorethanthedetectorsfound

C.fewerthanthenumberthedetectorsfound

D.exactlythesamenumberasthedetectorsfound

参考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]细节题。见第二段第三句“测量它们显然很困难，到目前为止，每种探测器

只找了理论预测上的一半甚至不到一半的量。”

第3题：

Whathappenedlastweekaccordingtothepassage?

A.Scientistsmeasuredfaintflashesofbluelightfromneutrinosand

2

otherparticles.

B.Britainscientistsannouncedthattheyhavesolvedtheconundrum.

C.178scientistsannouncedthattheyhavesalvedtheconundrum.

D.Neutrinosandotherparticlesstreamedthroughadetector6800feet

down.

参考答案：c

答案解析：

[C]细节题。见第三段第一句“上周，在一家安大略银矿，在进行了长达14个

月对蓝光微中子的微光和能够通过深测器穿透6800英尺以下深度的粒子的测量

后，来自加拿大、美国和英国的178名科学家宣布他们已经解决了这个难题。”

第4题:

WhichisNOTtrueaboutthelaboratorytheuniversitiesappliedto

construct?

A.Thelaboratorywillcostthem$200million.

B.Thelaboratorywillbeconstructed7400feetdown.

C.ThelaboratorywillbeconstructedwhereHomestakeMineisnow.

D.Thelaboratorywillalsobeanidleone.

参考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]细节题。见全文最后一句话.morethan7400feetdowninthenowidle

HomestakeMine”是指Homestake矿井至今仍闲置着。

第5题：

Whatisthepassagemainlyabout?

A.TheMysteryoftheMissingSolarNeutrinos.

B.Whystarsshine.

C.Whyneutrinoschangetheiridentity.

D.AgathaChristie，snovel.

参考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]主旨题。全文的主题是失踪的太阳微中子之谜，参见文章精点。

Theimportanceandfocusoftheinterviewintheworkoftheprint

andbroadcastjournalistisreflectedinseveralbooksthathavebeen

writtenonthetopic.Mostofthesebooksaswellasseveral

chapters,mainlyin,butnotlimitedto,journalismandbroadcasting

handbooksandreportingtexts,stressthe“howto“aspectsofjournalistic

interviewingratherthantheconceptualaspectsoftheinterview,its

context,andimplications.Muchofthe^howto^materialisbasedonpersonal

experiencesandgeneralimpressions.Asweknow,injournalismasinother

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fields,muchcanbelearnedfromthesystematicstudyofprofessional

practice.Suchstudybringstogetherevidencefromwhichbroadgeneralized

principlescanbedeveloped.

Thereis,ashasbeensuggested,agrowingbodyofresearch

literatureinjournalismandbroadcasting,butverylittlesignificant

attentionhasbeendevotedtothestudyoftheinterviewitself.Onthe

otherhand,manygeneraltextsaswellasnumerousresearcharticleson

interviewinginfieldsotherthanjournalismhavebeenwritten.Manyof

thesebooksandarticlespresentthetheoreticalandempiricalaspects

oftheinterviewaswellasthetrainingofthe

interviewers.Unhappily,thisplentifulgeneralliteratureabut

interviewingpayslittleattentiontothejournalisticinterview.Thefact

thatthegeneralliteratureoninterviewingdoesnotdealwiththe

journalisticinterviewseemstobesurprisingfortworeasons.First,it

seemslikelythatmostpeopleinmodernWesternsocietiesaremore

familiar,atleastinapositivemanner,withjournalisticinterviewing

thanwithanyotherformofinterviewing.Mostofusareprobablysomewhat

familiarwiththeclinicalinterview,suchasthatconductedbyphysicians

andpsychologists.Inthesesituationstheprofessionalpersonor

interviewerisinterestedingettinginformationnecessaryforthe

diagnosisandtreatmentofthepersonseekinghelp.Anotherfamiliar

situationisthejobinterview.However,veryfewofushaveactuallybeen

interviewedpersonallybythemassmedia,particularlybytelevision.And

yet,wehaveavividacquaintancewiththejournalistinterviewbyvirtue

ofourrolesasreaders,listeners,andviewers.Evenso,trueunderstanding

ofthejournalisticinterview,especiallytelevisioninterviews,requires

thoughtfulanalysesandevenstudy,asthisbookindicates.

conceptual(adj.)抽象的implication(n.)意义by

virtueof通过

literature(n.)文献numerous(adj.)大量的

otherthan除了…(还有)

somewhat(adv.)有点clinical(adj.)诊疗的

physician(n.)内科医生

psychologist(n.)心理医生massmedia大众媒体

acquaintance(n.)熟悉

第6题：

Themainideaofthefirstparagraphisthat.

A.generalizedprinciplesforjournalisticinterviewsarethechief

concernforwritersonjournalism

B.importanceshouldbeattachedtothesystematicstudyof

4

journalisticinterviewing

C.conceptsandcontextualimplicationsareofsecondaryimportance

tojournalisticinterviewing

D.personalexperiencesandgeneralimpressionsshouldbeexcluded

fromjournalisticinterviews

参考答案：B

答案解析：

这是一本书的序言，作者分析了人们对新闻采访理论研究的忽视，强调人们应该

注重新闻采访，尤其是电视采访。第一段：新闻采访工作不仅需要学习其具体

步骤，还要进行系统的理论研究。第二段：关于采访的通用文献很多，人们却

不太关注新闻采访本身。这其中有两个原因：其一，人们对新闻采访更了解而不

太熟悉其他形式的采访。其二，我们对新闻采访中听众的角色熟悉，却不经常上

电视亲自接受采访。本文作者认为应该深入了解新闻采访。［B］推断题。

根据第一段的大意，我们可以判断［B］应该注重新闻采访的系统研究是对的。［A］

从新闻采访中概括出一些原理是新闻方面的作家主要关心的问题。这与目前的状

况相反，因而错误。［C］概念和上下文含义对新闻采访来说不重要。而作者在文

章后半部分推翻了此说法，因而也是错误的；［D］个人经验和大体印象不应该包

括在新闻采访之内。这点文中没有提及。

第7题：

Muchresearchhasbeendoneoninterviewsingeneral.

A.sothetrainingofjournalistinterviewershaslikewisebeen

strengthened

B.thoughthestudyoftheinterviewingtechniqueshasn，treceivedmuch

attention

C.butjournalisticinterviewingasaspecificfieldhasunfortunately

beenneglected

D.andtherehasalsobeenadramaticgrowthinthestudyof

journalisticinterviewing

参考答案：C

答案解析：

［C］细节题。第二段的第一句和第四句都指出，关于采访的通用文献很多，人们

却不太关注新闻采访本身。因此［C］正确。［A］对新闻采访者的培训相应的增加了。

这点文章没有提及；［B］中interviewing的前面应加上journalistic才对；［D］

错在dramaticgrowth——词。

第8题：

Westernerstarefamiliarwiththejournalisticinterview,.

A.butmostofthemwishtostayfromit

B.andmanyofthemhopetobeinterviewedsomeday

C.andmanyofthemwouldliketoacquireatrueunderstandingofit

D.butmostofthemmaynothavebeeninterviewedinperson

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参考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]细节题。这句话的答案在第二段第十句：我们很少有人被媒体—特别是

电视——亲自采访过。[A]的意思为：我们大都希望避而远之，与内容不符。

第9题：

Whoistheintervieweeinaclinicalinterview?

A.Thepatient.

B.Thephysician.

C.Thejournalist.

D.Thepsychologist.

参考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]细节题。第二段的第八、九句话告诉我们，该句的interview是指医生与病

人的谈话，因此这里的interviewee是指病人。

第10题：

Thepassageismostlikelyapartof.

A.anewsarticle

B.aresearchreport

C.ajournalisticinterview

D.apreface

参考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]推断题。这个答案在文章的最后一句话：虽然如此，要想达到对新闻采访

—特别是电视采访——的真正理解，需要深入分析，乃至研究，正如这本书

所说的那样。这说明本文应是一篇序言。

Forthemajorityofproducers,however,neithermakingdirectcontact

withallpossibleconsumers,norestablishingtheirownchainofselling

pointswillbe[viable]options.Forthem,therequirementtousethe

facilitiesoftheexistingdistributionsystemtogettheirproducts

throughtotheultimateconsumerwhilekeepingthemaximumofprofitfor

themselves.Asageneralrule,theexistingmarket,canspreadits

overheadsoverthemultitudeofproductswhichithandlesandtherefore

shouldbeabletoprovidedistributionforanyoneproductmorecheaply

thanitwouldcosttoprovideuniqueservicesforthatproductalone.The

questionis,cantheexistingmarketprovidetheknow-hownecessaryto

getthisparticularproductthroughitspotentialconsumers,intermsof

understandingit,beingabletoexplainit,recommendingitorinstalling

itcorrectly?Inshort,howeverinexpensivethemarketsystemmaybe,is

6

itcosteffectiveforthepurpose?

Theanswerislikelytobethatveryfewproducerswillfind

themselvesabletomakeabsolutelyallthesalestheywanttomakedirectly

totheactualconsumersineverycase.Verymanyproducers,especially

ofgoodsfordomesticconsumption,willhavenodirectcontactwiththeir

publicatall:Thosewhocanadvantageouslydealdirectlywithsome

proportionoftheiruserswillneverthelessfinditworthwhiletousethe

markettoreachcertainotherclassesofuser,whoareeithertoosmall

ortoodistantortooundemandingtojustifycontactingdirectly.The

manufacturerofindustrialsupplieswilltypicallyselldirectlytohis

majorusercustomers,eachofwhomwilldemandpersonalattentionand,

nodoubt,thekeenestprices,whileprovidingavolumeofbusinessthat

justifiesthecost.Butthereisnearlyalwaysaninterestingvolumeof

additionalsalestobemadetosomeothersectorofusers,whichcannot

beobtainedeconomicallydirectly,butwhichtradedistributionis

adequatetosupply.Acrossthewholerangeofalternatives,nearlyevery

producerfindsitnecessarytomakesomeuseofthetradedistribution

system.

注释

viable可行的option自由选择

facility设备、便利multitude大批、大

群

overheads经常性支出、管理费用install安置、安装

consumption消耗、消费keen热心的、渴望的

adequate足够的、适当的alternative选择余地

第11题：

Thepassageismainlyabout.

A.thefactthatit'shardtoselldirectly

B.theadvantagesofthetradedistributionsystem

C.awayofdistribution

D.howtogetthemaximumofprofit

参考答案：c

答案解析：

C纵览全文，可见本文介绍的是一种销售方式“usingtheexisting

distributionsystems”,通过与其他方式做比较来说明其优点，也是为了证明

这种销售方式的可行性。因此C.awayofdistribution为正确答案。

第12题:

WhichisNOTthereasonthatproducerswhocandealdirectlywithsome

7

consumersstillusetheexistingdistributionsystem?

A.Othergroupsofcustomersaretoolargetocontactwithdirectly.

B.Therearemanycustomerswhoareusedtodoso.

C.Somecustomersaresoeasytosatisfythattheyr)eedn，ttobedealt

withdirectly.

D.Thatwillbringthemmoreprofit.

参考答案：A

答案解析：

A文中第二段有这样一句话“Thosewhocanadvantageouslydealdirectlywith

someproportionoftheiruserswillneverthlessfinditworthwhiletouse

themarkettoreachcertainotherclassesofuser,whoareeithertoosmall

ortoodistantortooundemandingtojustifycontactingdrect.”选项B

与C的意思被包含在内，而D是显然的。对于A中的原因，文中并未提到。

第13题:

Themostimportantadvantageofusingtheexistingdistributionsystem

isthat.

A.itcanreducethepriceoftheproducts.

B.itcoststheproducerslessthanusingotherways.

C.itcoversalargernumbertocustomers.

D.itmakestheconsumersunderstandtheproductsbetter.

参考答案：B

答案解析：

B根据第——段中“Asageneralrule,theexistingmarket...andtherefore

shouldbeabletoprovidedistributionforanyoneproductmorecheaply

thanitwouldcosttoprovideuniqueservicesforthatproductalone.”

及文中其他表述可知销售成本低是这种方式的主要特点。A与D都是由成本低导

致的，而D是直接销售的特点。

第14题：

Wecanguessthattheunderlinedword“viable“inthefirstparagraphmay

mean.

A.beneficial

B.necessary

C.useful

D.practical

参考答案：D

答案解析：

D本文主要讲的是，由于种种原因，与消费者直接接触以及建立自己的销售链对

多数生产者来说不太现实，因此利用现有的销售体系才成为较普遍的方式，所以

本题中选项Dpractical才是合适的答案，文中没有讨论哪种更为有用或获利更

8

多的问题。

第15题：

Allofthefollowingstatementsaretrueexcept.

A.producersofdomesticconsumptionoftenusethefacilitiesofthe

existingdistributionsystem

B.usuallytheproducersofindustrialsupplieswillspendmoreon

distribution

C.thetradedistributionsystemisusefultosomeproducersbutis

unnecessarytoothers

D.theexistingmarketsystemmaybelessexpensive

参考答案：C

答案解析：

C从“verymanyproducers,especiallyofgoodsfordomesticconsumption,

willhavenodirectcontactwiththeirpublicatall.”可推出选项A的

结论。工业供应品的制造者由于主要采用向用户直接销售的方式，必然销售成本

较高，因此B正确；D在原文中较明显；由本文最后一句可否定选项C。

Manysystemscanbedeliberatelyfooled.AnewstudyfromYokohama

NationalUniversityinJapanshowsthatphonyfingersconcoctedfrom

gelatin（胶），calledugummydummies,“easilytrickfingerprintsystems.

Manufacturersofsomesystemsclaimtoguardagainstsuchtacticsby

recordingpupildilation（瞳孔扩张），bloodflowinfingers,andother

evidencethatthebiometricsampleis"live."Andalthoughsomemakers

assertthatbiometricssolvestheproblemofidentitytheft-noonecan

stealyouriris（虹月英）orhand,afterall-manyexpertsdisagree.Ahacker

whobrokeintoapoorlydesignedsystemmightbeabletostealother

people，sdigitalbiometrictemplatesandusethemtoaccesssecure

networks.Thistrick,called^replay,couldtakeidentitythefttoawhole

newlevel."Your,fingerprintisuniquelyyours,forever.Ifit's

compromised,youcan，tgetanewone,“saysJackieFenn,atechnology

analystattheGartnerGroup.

Privacyconcerns-althoughtheyseemlesspressingtomany

thesedays-mayalsoslowpublicacceptanceofthetechnology.Yetin

somecases,biometricscanactuallyenhanceprivacy.Afinger-scansystem

forcontrollingaccesstomedicalrecords,forexemple,wouldalsocollect

anaudittrailofpeoplewhoviewedthedata.Butfacescanning,withits

potentialforidentifyingpeoplewithouttheirknowledge,hasalarmed

privacyadvocates.

Lastmonth,forexample,VisionicsCorp，sface-scanningsystem

wasredeployedasananticrimemeasureinaTampa,Fla.,entertainment

district.DetectiveBillToddsaysthesystemhadbeentakendowntwo

monthsintoits12-monthtrialbecauseofabug（故障）intheoperating

9

system,butithasbeenupgradedandisnowbackinuse.The36-camera

systemiscontrolledbyanofficeratthestation,whocanpan,tilt,and

zoomthecamerastoscanfacesinthecrowdsothatthesoftwarecancompare

themwithfacesinadatabase.

WhileToddsaysthedatabasecontainsonlyphotographsofwanted

felons,runaways,andsexualpredators,policedepartmentpolicyallows

anyonewhohasacriminalrecordormightprovide“valuable

intelligence,“suchasgangmembers,tobeincluded.Sofar,according

toareportbytheAmericanCivilLibertiesUnion,thetechnologyhas

producedmanyfalsematchesandTodldconfirmsthatithasn，tidentified

anycriminals,“wehaveourlimitactions,saysFrancesZelazny,

spokespersonforVisionics."It'sanenhancementtolawenforcement,not

areplacement.”

Attimes,theprivacyproblemismorepeceptablethanreality.

TheLowerMerionschooldistrictnearPhiladelphiahadinstalledfinger

一scandevicesforschoollunchlines.Studentswouldplacetheirfingers

onapadtoverifytheiridentity,andmoneywouldbedeductedfromtheir

account.Theoptionalprogramwasinstitutedtomakelinesmovefaster,

andtospareembarrassmenttostudentsentitledtofreeordiscounted

meals.Buteventhoughthesystemdidnotcaptureafullfingerprintimage,

butratherastripped-downdigitalversion,someparentsfeltthatit

cameuncomfortablyclosetotraditionalfingerprinting.Afteraspateof

badpress,theprogramwaskilledlastyear.Fortyotherschooldistricts

stillusethesystem.

注释

phony伪造的tilt使倾斜

gummy树胶质的zoom调整镜头使影像扩大

dummy人像模型，冒充货felon罪犯

tactics策略predator掠夺者,食肉

动物

biometric生物测定学的gang一群（囚犯）一帮（歹徒）

template样板,模板intelligence新闻,情报

compromise使遭受损害perception感觉，知觉

audit稽核，检查pad垫状物

trail痕迹，小径optional非强制性的

upgrade改进，提高

第16题:

Thepassagemainlydealswith.

A.gummydummies

B.howtoidentifyaperson

10

C.theface-scanningsystems

D.theproblemsofbiometrics

参考答案：D

答案解析：

D本文第一段与最后一段主要讲的是指纹检测技术的问题，其他几段讲的是面孔

辨认系统的不完善之处，因此整篇文章讲的是目前生物测定学中的问题。

第17题：

Whichofthefollowingisnottrueaccordingtothefirstparagraph?

A.Sometimesthefingerprintsystemscan，tdistinguishthe“gummy

dummies”andtherealfingers.

B.Biometricscan，tsolvetheproblemofidentitytheftaccordingto

someexperts.

C.Manyexpertsdisagreethatnoonecanstealyouririsorhand.

D.Abackermayeasilyuseother，sidentity.

参考答案：C

答案解析：

C选项A可以“phonyfingersconcoctedfromgelatin,called'gummydummies’,

easilytrickfingerprintsystems”看出。文中指出“noonecanstealyour

irisorhand”这是一个事实，而许多专家不同意的只是"biometricssolvesthe

problemofidentitytheft”,因此B正确，而选项C是错误的。

第18题：

“Thetechnologyinthesecondparagraphrefersto.

A.fingerprintsystems

B.biometrics

C.face-scanningsystems

D.gummydummies

参考答案：B

答案解析：

B第一段从指纹检测系统入手，提出了生物测定学中的问题。而且在下一句中，

作者又接着说“Yetinsomecases,biometricscanactuallyenhanceprivacy

可见这里的“thetechnologyv就是指^biometrics.

第19题：

WhichofthefollowingexpressionsabouttheVisionicsCorp，sface-

scanningsystemisnottrue?

A.Ithasbeenimproved.

B.Thedatabaseofthesystemcontainsparagraphsofalimitedamount

ofpeople.

C.Ithasbeenwidelyusedinentertainmentdistricts.

11

D.Itcan，treplacethelawenforcement.

参考答案：C

答案解析：

C选项A、B、D都可以从文章第三，第四段找到或推出，文中表明这一系统只是

在试用期，因此C不正确。

第20题：

Byusingthefinger-scandevicesforschoollunchlines,.

A.theschoollunchlinescanmovefaster

B.Thosewhoneedn，tpayfortheirmealsnolongergetembarrassed

C.Someparentsfeeluncomfortableaboutthedevues

D.Thefingerprintimagesofthestudentsarerecorded

参考答案：D

答案解析：

D由最后一段中“Buteventhoughthesystemdidn，tcaptureafull

fingerprintimage,butratherastripped-downdigitalversion...“口J

知选项D是正确的。

Onebyone,economiesaroundtheworldarestumbling.Bycutting

interestratesagainthisweek-fortheseventhtimethisyear-the

FederalReservehopesitcankeepAmericaoutofrecession.Butinan

increasingnumberofeconomies,fromJapantoTaiwantoMexicoandBrazil,

GDPinalreadyshrinking.Globalindustrialproductionfellatanannual

rateof6percentinthefirsthalfof2001.Earlyestimatessuggestthat

grossworldproduct,asawhole,mayhavecontractedinthesecondquarter,

forpossiblythefirsttimeintwodecades.Welcometothefirstglobal

recessionofthe21stcentury.

Sofar,Americaitselfhasescapedatechnicalrecession,

definedastwoquartersoffalling

GDP.ButonAugust29revisedfiguresareexpectedtoshowthat

America'sGDPgrowthinthesecondquarterwasclosetozerooreven

negative,ratherthanthe0.7percentannualrateoriginallyannounced.

WithGDPgrowingwellbelowtrendforseveralquarters,profitstumbling

andunemploymentrising,itnowsmellshorriblylikearecession.

Earlierthisyear,when[Americafirstsneezed,]theEuropean

CentralBank(alongwithmostprivate-sectoreconomists)arguedthatthe

euroareawasinsulatedfromAmerica，sslowdownandhadlittletoworry

about.Thisseemstohavebeenwrong.InGermanytherearefearsabout

recessionasbusinessinvestmentandretailsalestumble.Recentfigures

confirmedthatGermany，sGDPstagnatedinthesecondquarter.Italy，sGDP

fellinthesecondquarter,andalthoughgrowthhasheldupbetterin

FranceandSpain,thegrowthintheeuroareaasawholewasclosetozero

12

inthequarter.Nobodyisforecastinganactualrecessionintheeuroarea

thisyear,butitisnolongerexpectedtoprovideanengineforworld

growth.

AsforJapan,itisprobablyalreadyinrecession.Japan'sGDP

grewslightlyinthefirstquarter.GoldmanSachsreckonsthatfigures

couldshowthatGDPfellatanannualrateofasmuchas6percentinthe

secondquarter,andthecontractionhasalmostcertainlycontinuedinto

thesecondhalfoftheyear.Persistentdeflationcontinuestobeasevere

problem.ArevisedmeasureofJapan，sconsumerpriceindex,tobe

publishedsoon,islikelytoshowthatdeflationisworsethanwhathad

beenthought.BankofJapananno