2023年基础设施行业的新兴趋势（英）

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Emergingtrends

ininfrastructure

2023edition

KPMGInternational

/infratrends

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Foreword

2023mayrepresentanepochunlikeanyother.Futuregenerationsmaylook

backat2023withdeepadmirationordeepscorn.Theymaypraiseleadersfor

theirforesightordamnthemfortheirinaction.Leaderstodayhaveachoice.

Therepercussionsofthesechoicescanresonateforfuturegenerations.

Theriskisthatleadersallowtheworstofourhumannaturetoruledecision­

makingduringthisperiodofmassivesocial,political,economicand

environmentalchange;collaborationcouldfalter,globalizationcouldfail,

andsocietycouldfracture.Theopportunityisthatleadersallowthebestof

humannaturetowintheday.Societycoulduniteinthefaceofdanger,adapt

tochange,andinnovateinadversity.

Thewillingnesstoletgoofthepastmaylargelydictatehowsocietiesmove

intothefuture.Theywon'tmakemuchprogressiftheyareshackledtosunk

investmentsandentrenchedsystems.Theywon'tinnovateiftheycan'topen

theirmindstonewideasandapproaches.Theywon'tadaptiftheyaren't

lookingahead.Andtheywon'tuniteunlesstheybelieveinabetterfuture.

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ThisisoureleventhyearofpredictingtheEmergingtrendsinStephenC.Beatty

infrastructure.We'vebeenwrongsometimes.But,moreoftenGlobalChairman(Non-Exec),Infrastructure

thannot,we'veidentifiedthetopicsthathaveshapedtheworldHead,GlobalCitiesCenterofExcellence,

ofinfrastructureoverthedecade.Webelievemanyofthisyear'sKPMGInternational

trendscanshapeinfrastructureoverthenextdecade.PartnerKPMGinCanada

圣sbeatty@kpmg.ca

Territorialism,inflation,sustainability,digitaltransformation,

supplychaindisruptions-thechallengeshumanityfacesthisEJStephenBeatty

yeararemonumentalandpotentiallypernicious.Whatisclear□©stephencbeatty

isthattheworldisinittogether.Carbonemittedinonecountry

raisessealevelsinanother.Interestrateincreasesherepushup

thecostoflivingthere.ConflictinoneregioncanleadtofamineMicheleConnolly

anddeathsomewhereelse.TheseissuescannotbesolvedinHeadofInfrastructure,EMAregion

isolation.Humanitymustpulltogether.GlobalHead,CorporateFinance,

KPMGInternational

ThiseditionofEmergingtrendsininfrastructure——likethoseofthePartner,KPMGinIreland

past——isasmuchaboutinspiringachangeinmindsetasitisabout

michele.connolly@kpmg.ie

predictingfuturetrends.Ratherthansimplylamentthestateofthe

fflMicheleConolly

world,welookaheadtopotentialapproachesandtechnological

□@michelec_kpmg

solutions,raisenewideasandexploretheopportunitiesthatare

beingcreated.That'sbecausewestronglybelievethatthebestof

humannaturewillwinout.Humanitycanuniteinthefaceofdanger,SharadSomani

adapttochangeandinnovateinadversity.HeadofInfrastructure,ASPACregion

Head,InfrastructureAdvisory,

WehopethiseditionofEmergingtrendsininfrastructurehelps

KPMGInternational

youthinkdifferentlyaboutthechallengesandopportunities

facingtheinfrastructuresectorthisyear.TolearnmoreaboutPartner,KPMGinSingapore

thetrends-ortoshareyourowninspirationwithus—we黑sharadsomani@.sg

encourageyoutocontactyourlocalKPMGmemberfirm.而SharadSomani

□@sharadsomani

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Contents

，Clickonthetopicsbelowtolearnmoreabouteachtrend.

Trend1Trend3Trend5Trend7Trend9

TiltingtowardsTheAgeofMassGettingthemostInstitutionalDealingwith

territorialismandCustomizationfromdigitalplayersdrivethesunkcostsand

shiftingallegiancesemergesclimateagendaabandonedassets

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BackedintotheInflation,pricingCitieslookGlobalizationThedefinition

sustainabilityandsupplyforpurposegetsbuffetedbyofinfrastructure

cornerelevatestherisksecurityevolves

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7LriJ-

Trend1：

Tiltingtowards

territorialism

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Tiltingtowardsterritorialismandshifting

allegiances

Thefoundationsofglobalizationareeroding.ProtectionismisInfrastructureisoneofthefewplaceswehopethatconsensus

rising.Populismisturningintounilateralism.Andthetiesthatcanstillbefound.Everyoneagreesontheneedfornewand

haveboundtheoldgeopoliticalworldareweakening.Politicalriskimprovedinfrastructure(insomemarkets,leadersjokethatthe

iseverywhere,andsensitivitiesarehigh.fastestwaytogetapolicyagendapassedisbyputtingtheword

Infrastructure1intotheheadlinesomewhere).Itisoneofthefew

Atanationalandaregionallevel,weareseeingapullawaythings,governmentsprovidetheircitizensthattheycanactually

fromglobalgeopoliticalconsensus.Multiplefracturepointsaresee,touchanduse.Inaworldoferodingtrust,infrastructurecan

emerging—whetheritbeonregionallines,politicallines,tradebethetissuethatconnectspeoplewithgovernment.

lines,environmentallinesoreconomiclines—thatareweakening

thefoundationsofglobalization.Ifwe'renotcareful,werisklosingForglobalinfrastructureplayers—developers,investors,and

muchofwhatsocietyhasachievedsinceWWII.operatorsinparticular—thisfracturingandshifttocontinuously

shiftingallegiancesiscreatingcomplexity.Suddenly,traditional

Whereoncewesawconsensus-building,whatwearenowsupplychainsseemriskier.Costsandpricesseemmoreuncertain.

seeingemergeisaweboftemporaryunstablealliances.Regulationseemsmorefragmented,lessconsistentandlessfit

Relationshipsandallegiancesshiftdependingontheagenda.forpurpose.Therulesofinternationaltradestarttocontradict.

Twocountriesmaypartneronregionaldefense,forexample,Workwiththewrongparties,andyoucouldfindyourself

yetstillcometoeconomicblowsonatradeissue.Tosaya*newblacklistedwithotherparties(seetrend8formoreonthis).

worldorder,isemergingwouldbewrong—thereisverylittle

'order'toit.Abigriskfor2023isthatallthiscomplexityanduncertainty

canslowthepaceofdecision-makingtoacrawl.Rightnow,

Yetthefracturesarenotjustcrackingalongnationalborders.however,actionisneeded,andlotsofit.Populationsneed

Thetoneofpoliticaldiscourseatthenationalandsub-nationalmoreinfrastructureandmoreleadership,notless.Ouradviceto

levelhasbecomeperilouslydivided.Centristsseeminglyhaveinfrastructureplayersistokeeptheirnewgeopoliticalandsupply

littleplaceforcommonground.chainsecuritylensesonapivot.Inaworldruledbyunstable

temporaryalliances,awarenessandagilitymaybekey.

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Trend2：

Backedintothe

sustainability

corner

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toclients.Allrightsre^eryed.

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Backedintothesustainabilitycorner

AttheCOP27meetingsinEgypt,thereseemedtobeatacittoseeasignificantshiftininvestmenttowardsresearchinto

recognitionthatthe1.5-degreegoalenshrinedinthePariscleanerfuels,carbonabatementandenergyefficiency.And

Agreementhadbecomeunattainable.Butthatdoesnotsuggestwhilethese,alongwithinnovationsinnewgreentechnologies

thefightagainstclimatechangeisnowover.Rather,itmeanslikegreenhydrogen,shouldnotbeusedasanexcusetodelay

wenowneedtofightharder.action—theydostillofferhopethatScope3emissionscanbe

rapidlyeliminated,andthe1.5-degreegoalcanstillbesalvaged.

Whatiscleartoeveryoneisthatthetimelineshaveshrunk.And

thepotentialimpactsofclimatechangearenolongersomeoneTheproblemisthatgovernments—havingstatedlofty

else'sproblem.Outsideofthosewhohappenedtoliveonangoalsandattendedhighprofileconferences—havebeen

atoll,mostpeopleprobablydidn'treallycomprehendthebigriskmaddeninglyslowtomovetheirfeet.Simplyput,thesearch

ofslowlyrisingsealevels.Nowtheyareseeingtherealitiesofforperfectionisbecomingtheenemyofprogress.Inpart,this

climatechangeontheirowndoorstep,manifestingasfloods,speakstotheenormityandcomplexityofthetask.Itreflects

hurricanes,extremeheatandcoldeventsanddrought.Atgrowingconcernsaboutthecostofthetransitionandwho

theindividuallevel,therisksofclimatechangehavebecomeisgoingtofundit(seetrend7formoreonthis).Government

personal,andthecostshavebecomereal.Inmanywaystheseprogressisalsoslowedbytheconcretebootsofanembedded

risksallowthecrisistobecomerealtomorepeople.costmindsetandsunkcosts(asdiscussedintrend9).

Thisyear,weexpecttoseeindividualsandorganizationstakeOuradvicetogovernmentsandinfrastructureplayersistoleave

seriousstepstomovefromtalktoaction.Muchfocuswilltheoldmindsetsbehindandfactorsustainabilityintodecision

likelyremainonmitigation(anythingwecandotokeepglobalmakingnow.Retrofittingusinganoldmindsetisgoingtobemore

warmingandclimatechangetoaminimumiswelcome,evenifexpensive,lesseffectiveandmoredisruptive.Andhistoryhas

humanityovershootsthe1.5-degreegoal).Butgrowingfocusprovenyoucan'twinthisfightdoingwhatyouhavedoneinthepast.

willlikelybeplacedonadaptationaspeoplecometotermswith

whatitmeanstoliveinaclimate-stressedworld.TheremayThisyear,expecttoseesustainabilitybecomemoreformalized

alsobemultiplepathstoadaptation,thoughsomerequireaasabasicpre-requisiteforallnewinfrastructuredevelopment,

fundamentalshiftinmindset.withdevelopers,ownersandinvestorsstartingtothinknotjust

aboutfinancialbudgets,butalsoaboutcarbonallocationones.

Muchoftheheavyliftingw川likelyfallontheshouldersofthe

energyandinfrastructuresectors.ThetrickwillbeincomingNowthatsocietyisbackedintoacorneronsustainability,people

upwithapproachesthathelpsolvethetrilemmaofsecurity,needtostartthinkingdifferently.Andthatmeansdoingthings

affordabilityandsustainabilityatpace.However,wealsoexpectsmarter,quicker,betterandfaster.

9|Emergingtrendsininfrastructure

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10|Em.ingtrends|ninfE：

MGIntematic

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TheAgeofMassCustomizationemerges

TheIndustrialAgeisover.Humanityisnowinanageofmassachievebetterresponsetimesandhighervalue.Enabling

customization.Andtherelicsoftheindustrialsystemarelosingtechnologies(like5G)andemergingapproaches(likethe

relevance.Inthepast,infrastructurewasallaboutbuildingmetaverse)shouldbeintegrated.

monolithic'factories'wherepeoplecouldreceiveastandard

service.Organizationsandgovernmentsbuiltmassive'healthcareTheproblemisthatthismovetowardscustomizationishappening

factories'wherepeoplecouldgowhentheyweresick.'Educationdespiteexistinginfrastructureandpolicy,notbecauseofit.Infact,

factories1wherestudentscouldlearnasetcurriculum.Evenmoreoftenthannot,theshiftisbeingdrivenbyprivateplayers

'masstransitfactories*intheformofset-piecesystemswithrigidwho-havingspottedaneedinthemarket—tookadvantage

structuresthatmovedpeoplealongthemostcommonroutes.byappealingtotheindividualconsumerratherthanthefaceless

taxpayer.Justconsiderhowcommunity-drivennavigationmap

Intheirplace,customizedsolutionsareemerging.Weareseeingapps,absentgovernmentsupport,havereroutedthewaypeople

theemergenceofspecializedhealthprovidersfocusedontravel.Orhowprivatespecialisthealthprovidersarererouting

uniqueconditions.Weareseeingthewide-spreadadoptionofpatientpathways.

ride-shareandmobilityoptionsthattakepeoplefromdoor-to-

door.WeareseeingthedevelopmentofindividualeducationalThechallengefacinginfrastructureprovidersandgovernments

journeys,tailoredaroundtheuniqueneedofeachperson(someistwo-fold.Thefirstbigchallengeishowtoremainrelevant

schooldistrictsalreadyuseAltoidentifystudentswithspecialinanagewheretechnologiesandprivateplayersarealready

needs,oftenfarfasterthantheirhumanteacherscan,solearningdisruptingtheservicedeliverymodel.Governmentsmayneedto

programscanbepersonalized).rethinkwhereandhowtheywillplay(orperhaps,justintervene)

intheprovisionofinfrastructure.Inpart,thisrequiresnewideas

Inmanyrespects,thisshiftisgoodnewsforconsumers.Itandmodelsthateschewtheindustrialageandembodytheage

meansusersareabletogetmorevaluefromtheirinfrastructure.ofmasscustomization.Itwilllikelyalsorequiresometough

Itreducesthewasteofprovidingservicespeopledon'tactuallydecisionsaboutwhattodowithexistingindustrialageassets(as

needoruse.Perhapsmostimportantly,itoffersanopportunitytodiscussedintrend9).

makeinfrastructuremoreinclusiveandaccessible.

Thisyear,weexpecttoseeinfrastructureplayersand

TheAgeofMassCustomizationisaboutpersonalizinggovernmentsstarttofocusmoreonwhattheydeliverrather

infrastructuretotheuser——bothinitsphysicalmanifestationthanhowtheydeliverit.Insteadofprovidingassetsorservices,

andinthewayweuseit.Andthatwillrequireastepchangeintheycanfocusongeneratingoutcomes.Insteadofaddingmore

digitization(seetrend5).newbusinessandservicesmodels.capacity,theycanfocusonaddingmoreoptions.Insteadof

Focuscanbeplacedoncreatinguniqueexperiencesforusersbuildingmonolithictemples,theycanstartthinkingabouthowto

whileprotectingtheirdata,theirprivacyandtheirinterests.createtailored,customizedservicesthathelpmeettheneedsof

Infrastructurevaluechainswilllikelyneedtobeadaptedtotomorrow'sindividualcitizens.

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Trend4：

Inflation,(

pricingandy

supplyelevates

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rInflation,pricingandsu叩lyelevatestherisk

Ahealthpandemic,followedbyasupplychainpandemic,leadingAnyBabyBoomerreadingthisarticlewilllikelyrememberrunning

toaninflationarypandemic.Thebigworryforinfrastructuredozensofdifferentpricescenarios,basedondifferentinflation

playersisthatthenextstopisabankruptcypandemic.assumptions,acrosstheirinvestments(businessandpersonal)

intheearly80fs.Inthosedays,USinflationtoppedoutat

Thecontinuedvolatilityandfinancialdisruptionofthepastfew13.5percent.Yet,still,thingswerebuilt,investmentsweremade,

monthshavecertainlynotbeeneasyforinfrastructureplayers.andinfrastructurewasdelivered.Thetricknowistoremember

Weareseeinginfrastructureplannersandownersstrugglingtohowuncertaintywasfactoredinhistorically.

budgetforprojectsthatwilltakeyearstodeliveranddecades

tofinance.Ascostsrise,returnoninvestmentequationsrapidlyOverthecomingyear,weexpecttoseeownersandinvestors

change.Asinflationbites,sodoesaffordability.starttorethinkwhoshouldactuallyownthecostandpricerisk

ontheirassetsandinvestments.Strongtrustandcooperation

What'sworryinginfrastructureownersandinvestorsisthat,morebetweenpublicandprivatesectors,ownersandcontractors,

oftenthannot,thepriceriskintoday'scontractsflowdowntodevelopersandoperators,andbuyersandsupplierswillbekey.

thedevelopersandcontractors.Foryears,costshadremainedForsome,thatmayleadtoastyleofcontractingthatmoreclosely

fairlystableandpriceriskwasgenerallyconsideredasymptomresembles*openbookfthaninthepast,whilestillmaintaininga

ofpoorcostmanagement.Itonlymadesensethatthosewiththelevelofpricedisciplinebetweenthecontractorandtheowner.

greatestcontrolovercostdisciplineshouldalsoholdthecostrisk.Thechallengewilllikelybetomaintainpricedisciplinewhile

allowingforprudentrisksharing.

But,today,thelinkbetweenriskanddisciplinehasbecome

unhinged.NoamountofcostorpricedisciplinecanprotectAtthesametime,globalsupplychainsareshiftinginresponse

marginsduringtimesofinflationaryshocks,supplyconstraintstogeopoliticalriskandpressure(seetrend8).Contractors

andvolatilecommoditypricefluctuations.Andfewcontractorsanddevelopersmayneedtostartrebuildingtheirstrategic

understandhowtoproperlypriceinflationandcostvolatilityprocurementfunctions,ledbyagreaterfocusonpriceand

intotheircontracts.USconsumerpriceinflationhasn'ttoppedcostdisciplineandrobustscenarioplanningcapabilities.

1

4percentinmorethan30yearswhichmeansfewdevelopersGovernmentsmayneedtofindthefiscalspacetoinvestin

haveanyrealexperiencedealingwiththeissue.Notsurprisingly,infrastructureinordertoboosteconomicactivity(frankly,

manyinfrastructureplanners,ownersandinvestorsaredreadfullytheymayhavenootherchoice).

worriedthattheirsupplychainisabouttogobust.

Tobesure,supplychainbankruptcywouldbeaworst-case

Yetthisisnotthefirsttimetheworldhasexperiencedinflationscenariothisyear.Buttheriskofnotbuildinganythingatallwould

andsupplyissues.Somemarkets—suchasTurkeyandbemuch,muchmoredangerousoverthelong-term.

Venezuelahavebeensufferingthroughhighinflationforyears.

/indicator/FRCPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=US

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Gettingthemost

fromdigital

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Gettingthemostfromdigital

Nobodydeniesthatdigitaltransformationcandelivermassivesourcesofdata.Itshoulddriveperformance,monitoringand

potentialbenefitsforinfrastructureowners,operatorsandreporting.Itshouldbethedefecfofoundationstoneofevery

users.Theusecasesaremanifold.Thevalueisquantifiable.physicalasset.

Thecapabilitiesareplentiful.Sowhyisittakingsolongfor

infrastructuretoactuallyembracedigital?Thisisclearlywhatmanyowners,operatorsandinvestorsare

lookingfor.Thoseresponsiblefordrivinglong-termefficiencyand

PartofthechallengeisthatbrownfieldinfrastructureisperformancefrominfrastructureassetswanttouseAltoenhance

notoriouslydifficulttodigitize.Andthebusinesscasedoesn*tdecision-making,loTtoenablepredictivemaintenance,anddigital

alwaysstackup.Dataqualityisoftenachallenge.Manyolderdashboardstodrivemonitoringandreporting.Butthatrequires

assetsalsostrugglewithinvestmenttimelines,resourcedatatobeflowingacrosstheassetlifecycle,betweenoperational

commitmentsandlegacysystemintegration.Theyalsoneedtosiloesandthrougheverynodeofthevaluechain.Andthatrequires

beabletoquantifythepotentialbenefitswhichcanincludebetterdesigners,contractorsanddeveloperstogetonboard.

information,moreefficientoperationalmanagementandmore

effectiveplanning.Thebigquestioniswhetherinfrastructureowners,procuring

authorities,investorsandoperatorsarewillingtopayforitand

Inmanycases,theabilitytooptimizeexistingassetsislimitedwhethertheycanoffertherightincentivesintotheirsupplychain

byregulatoryconstraintsthatwereinplacewhentheassetwastoen