可再生能源行业展望-2024 renewable energy industry outlook

Deloitte.

Insights

2024renewableenergyindustryoutlook

Renewablessetforavariable-speedtakeoffashistoric

investment,competitiveness,anddemandpropeltheir

development,whilealsoexacerbatinggrid,supplychain,andworkforcechallenges.

ARTICLE·24-MIN·DeloitteResearchCenter

READforEnergy&Industrials

Inabifurcatedrenewablelandscape,thesolarmarketbrightenedin2023,while

windfacedsweepingchallenges.Thelatterborethebruntofprojectinputs,laborandcapitalcostpressures,interconnectionandpermittingdelays,andtransmission

limitations.Meanwhile,supplychainconstraintsstartedeasingashistoricclean

energyandclimatelawstookeffect.

IntheUnitedStates,utility-scalesolarcapacityadditionsoutpacedadditionsfrom

othergenerationsourcesbetweenJanuaryandAugust2023—reachingalmost9

gigawatts(GW),up36%forthesameperiodin2022—whilesmall-scalesolar

generationgrewby20%.'Only2.8GWofwindcapacitycameonlineduringthe

sameperiod,down57%fromlastyear,resultinginrenewablesaccountingforjust

overhalfofcapacityaddedversustwo-thirdslastyear.'However,renewableenergy'sshareofUSelectricitygenerationremainedlevelat22%.}Bytheendof2023,theUS

EnergyInformationAdministrationexpectsutility-scalesolarinstallationstomore

thandoublecomparedto2022,toarecord-breaking24GW,andwindcapacityto

riseby8GW.4

2024energy,resources,&industry

outlooks

ReadmorefromtheDeloitteCenterEnergy&Industrials'2024

outlookcollection

Thetandempushoffederalinvestmentsflowingintocleanenergyandpullof

decarbonizationdemandfrompublicandprivateentitieshaveneverbeenstronger.

Movinginto2024,theseforcescouldenablerenewablestoovercomehurdlescaused

bytheseismicshiftsneededtomeetthecountry'sclimatetargets.Theupliftand

obstaclesshapingtheyearaheadhavesetthestageforavariable-speedtakeoffacross

renewabletechnologies,industries,andmarkets.

Federalinvestmentpush

Deploymenthighs.TheEnergyInformationAdministrationexpectsrenewable

deploymenttogrowby17%to42GWin2024andaccountforalmostaquarterof

electricitygeneration.'TheestimatefallsbelowthelowendoftheNational

RenewableEnergyLaboratory'sassessmentthatInflationReductionAct(IRA)andInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA)provisionscouldboostannualwind

andsolardeploymentratesto44GWto93GWbetween2023and2030,with

cumulativedeploymentofnewutility-scalesolar,wind,andstoragereachingupto850GWby2030.

Costlows.Atemporaryriseinrenewablecostscouldbelietheirlong-termdecliningtrendandrelativecompetitiveness.Highfinancing,balanceofplant,labor,andlandcostsoutweighedcommodityandfreightpricefallsin2023,pushingupthelevelized

costsofenergy(LCOEs)forwindandutility-scalesolar,especiallyprojectswith

trackersthataccountfor80%ofinstalledsolarcapacity.'Inflationandinterestratesdisproportionatelyimpactedoffshorewind,whichsawa50%riseinitsLCOEfrom

2021to2023.9WhilethisequationmaypreventLCOEsfromresuminghistorical

downwardtrendsin2024,theIRAinvestmenttaxcreditsandproductiontaxcredits

havemadeutility-scalesolarandonshorewind,includingprojectspairedwith

storage,competitivewithmarginalcostsofexistingconventionalgeneration.”

Projectsclaimingthemaximumavailablecreditscouldcapturetheworld'slowestsolarandwindLCOEs.!0Renewablescollectingproductiontaxcreditswilllikely

increasetheprevalenceofnegativepricesinwholesaleelectricitymarkets.I

Decarbonizationdemandpull

Moststatesandutilities.Twenty-ninejurisdictions,representingaroundhalfofUSelectricityretailsales,havemandatoryrenewableportfoliostandards(figure7);24

jurisdictions,includingtwonewstatesin2023,havezerogreenhousegas(GHG)

emissionsor100%renewableenergygoalsspanning2030through2050.2

Renewableportfoliostandardsandcleanenergystandardpoliciesareexpectedto

require300terawatthours(TWh)ofadditionalcleanelectricityby2030.

Complementarytostategoalsarethe56individualand28parentutilitieswith

carbonreductiontargetsthatserve83%ofUScustomeraccounts.14Twenty-five

utilitieshavefurthercommittedtoeitheran80%carbonreductionoran80%share

ofcleangenerationby2030.Morestates,localities,andpublicutilitiesare

expectedtoinvestinrenewablesin2024,astheIRA'sdirectpayandtransferability

mechanismshelpenabletheirmarketparticipation.I6

Majorcorporations.Inthefirst10monthsof2023,30companiesjoinedRE100,a

globalcorporateinitiativetoprocureelectricityentirelyfromrenewables,growing

themembershipto421.7Aroundaquarterofthemembersareheadquarteredinthe

UnitedStates,andabulkoftheirupcomingcommitmentshavea2025targetdate.

Somearealsodrivingdecarbonizationthroughouttheirsupplychains.Followinga

record-breakingyear,corporaterenewableprocurementsawthenumberof

transactingcustomersincreaseby31%betweenthefirsthalfof2022andthatof

2023.Bigtechnologycompaniesaccountedformostoftheprocuredcapacity—atrendlikelytogrowin2024asthecompaniesmeetandhelpothersmeet24/7and

carbon-matchingtargetswiththehelpofgenerativeartificialintelligence.?0The

traininganduseofgenerativeAIcouldincreasetheirdatacenterdemandforcleanelectricityfive-tosevenfold.'Agrowingnumberofcorporationsarealsoexpectedtosupportrenewablesbyparticipatinginthenascenttax-credittransfermarketin

2024.Comingfullcircle,corporationsareparticipatinginmultinationaleffortsto

pushgovernmentstoaddressclimatechangeandacceleratetheenergytransition.

AheadofCOP28,131companieswithclosetoUS$1trillioninannualrevenuedrove

acampaignurginggovernmentstophaseoutfossilfuelsby2035.?2

Theimpactofunprecedentedinvestmentinrenewableinfrastructurewilllikely

becomemoreapparentin2024.Regulatorybooststorenewableenergyand

transmissionbuildoutcouldhelpaddressgridconstraints.Andbooststo

manufacturingcouldlaythefoundationsofadomesticcleanenergyindustrywith

strongersupplychainssupportingsolar,wind,storage,andgreenhydrogen

deployment.Askilledworkforceshouldbepreparedtobuild,operate,andmaintain

allthesenewgenerationandmanufacturingfacilitiesplannedoverthenextfew

years.Asrenewablesbecomealargerpartofpowergenerationandtheportfolioof

technologiesgrows,perceptionscouldstartcatchingupwiththerealitythat

renewablescanenhancegridresilience.Deloitte's2024renewablesindustryoutlook

discusseshowthesetrendscouldimpacttheindustryinthecomingyear:

·Regulatoryboostsandbrakes:Historicinvestmentcoulderodeobstacles

·Reshoringcleanenergy:Supplychainsshortenandstrengthen

·Reskillingtheworkforce:Unlockingthetalentbottleneckiskeyto

decarbonization

·Renewablesasaresiliencestrategy:Amidwidespreadmisperceptions,renewables

cansavetheday

·Renewabletechnology,redefined:Undergroundrenewablescouldresurge

Keytrends

01

Regulatoryboosts:Historicinvestmentin

renewableswillcomeintofullerviewin2024Solarandstoragedeplaymentsaresoaringandcleanhydrogenisteedupfortakeoff,while

offshorewindisnavigatingroughwaters.

Transmissionisthekeyobstacletotackle.

02

Reshoringsupplychains:Thecleanenergyindustryisreshoring.Amidhighimport

dependence,thefirstUSplantsforsome

upstreamcomponentswillstartin2024.Shorter

supplychainscouldstrengthenresilience.Trends

towatchincludestrategicpartnerships

digitalizationandrecyclingcriticalminerals.

03

Reskillingtheworkforce:Therecordbuild-outof

renewablesanddomesticsupplychainrequires

growingand(re)trainingaworkforcewiththe

ightskillsintherightplaces.Challengesmaybegreatestinthenewestindustries.GenerativeAlsalsoreshapingtalentneeds

04

Resilienceinrenewables:Renewablesare

increasinglybecomingaresiliencestrategyoperatingwhenthermalsourcesfailedoverthepastyear.Butgascontinuestobe

consideredmostreliable.2024maybetheyearperceptioncatchesupwithreality

05

Resurgingtechnologies:Geothermaland

renewablenaturalgasmayenhancerenewable

portfoliosin2024.Theycouldcreatesynergiesbetweenintermittentandbaseloadrenewables

petweenundergroundandovergroundassets,andbetweenelectronsandmolecules

Source:Deloitteanalysis.

Deloitte./us/en/insights/research-centers/center-energyindustrials.html

1.Regulatoryboostsandbrakes:Historicinvestmentcoulderodeobstacles

TheIJAandtheIRAhaveboostedrenewablesthroughhistoricinvestmentinnewor

expandedprograms,grants,andtaxcreditstoacceleratethedeploymentof

establishedandemergingrenewabletechnologies.Overthepasttwoyears,they

helpedcatalyzeUS$227billionofannouncedpublicandprivateinvestmentsin

utility-scalesolar,storage,wind,andhydrogen.?'Todate,US$100billionofthese

investmentshavematerialized,inadditiontoUS$82billionindistributedrenewablesandheatpumps(figure1).StatesalsoofferedarecordUS$24billionintaxbreaksin

2022toattractprojects.4Thebulkofinvestmentflowedtostateswithambitious

decarbonizationtargetsandmandates,ledbyCalifornia,aswellasstateswith

greaterrenewableresourcesandlowerpermittingandsitingcosts,ledbyTexasand

Florida.?Anoutsizeshareofcleanenergyinvestmentalsoflowedtoenergy,

disadvantaged,andlow-incomecommunitiesidentifiedintheIRAforadditional

incentives.26

Solarandstoragesoar

TheIJAandtheIRAhavehadsomeofthebiggestimpactsonsolarandstorage.

Utility-scalesolarcapturedthelargestshareofbothannouncedinvestmentofUS$92

billionandactualinvestmentofUS$52billionacross38states.Themonthafterthe

IRApassed,arecord72GWofstandalonesolarwasaddedtotheinterconnection

queue,morethanthepreceding11monthlyadditionscombined.?Amidaventure

capital(VC)industryslowdown,VCfundingforsolarandstorageincreasedinthe

firstthreequartersof2023,andtheIRAboostbluntedhigherinterestratesaspublicmarketanddebtfinancingforsolaralsogrew.?8Solarrecorded34%growthinactual

investmentoverthepastyear,storagejumped51%,anddistributedrenewables,

storage,andfuelcellsincreased31%.?9

IRAtaxcreditshaveallowedsolarandstoragedeveloperstocreativelyconfigure

projectsaroundsitingandgridconstraintsthroughstandaloneorhybriddeployment.

In2024,taxcreditaddersareexpectedtoshapesolarandstoragemarketofferings."

USTreasury'sreleaseofguidanceonenergyandlow-incomecommunityaddersin

thelastquarterof2023couldbeparticularlyrelevanttocommunitysolar

developers.'Theguidancemayalsodrivemorethird-partyownedsolarandstorage

projects,whichcanqualifyfortheseaddersunlikecustomer-ownedsystems.3.

Finally,theimpactofUS$7billioninGreenhouseGasReductionFundgrantsshould

beseenthroughtheSolarForAllprogramandtheUS$3billionloanfromthe

DepartmentofEnergy's(DOE's)LoansProgramOffice(LPO),whichisthe

government'slargest-eversinglecommitmenttosolar.3"Bothprogramsfocuson

distributedsolarandstoragedeploymentinlow-incomeanddisadvantaged

communities

Hydrogenteedupfortakeoff

TheIIJAandtheIRAhaveteedupthetakeoffofanewgreenhydrogeneconomy.Cleanhydrogenhasthelargestgapbetweenannouncedandactualinvestments—morethanUS$50billionandlessthanUS$1billion,respectively.4Thegapreflects

inpartuncertaintyoverpendingTreasuryguidanceontaxcreditsthatareexpected

tomakegreenhydrogencompetitive.Atstakeiswhetherhourlymatching,

additionality,anddeliverabilitywillberequiredtoqualifyforthefullUS$3/kg

credit.”Favorablefinalguidancecouldopenthefloodgatesonactualinvestmentsin

2024andjumpstartthenascenthourlyRenewableEnergyCredit(REC)market.

TreasuryalignmentwiththeEuropeanUnion'sapproachtograduallyphaseinthe

threerequirementscouldalsoenabletheUSindustrytoservethe10millionmetric

tons(MMT)cleanhydrogenimportmarketthattheEUenvisionsby2030.Exports

couldhelpresolvedemanduncertaintyreflectedintheDOE'sreallocationofUS$1

billioninhydrogenhubfundstostimulatedemand.]”In2024,theindustryshouldwatchfordevelopmentsinthesevenselectedhydrogenhubsastheymoveintotheir

designandplanningphase,aswellasthelaunchofthecountry'sfirstend-to-end

greenhydrogensystem.38

Energyefficiencyinchesup

InvestmentfollowingtheIRAfellshortofmeetingambitioustargetsforenergy

efficiency,asreflectedinheatpumpdeployments.Whileheatpumpsattractedclose

toUS$45billion,investmenthasonlygrown1%overthepastyear."FinalDOE

guidanceonstateadministrationofdirectcustomerrebateprogramscouldunleash

growthin2024.AninitiativeoftheUSClimateAllianceof2.5statestoinstall20millionheatpumpsby2030couldfurtherbolsterdeployments,ascouldutility-

fundedenergyefficiencyprograms.

Windbrakes

Windinvestmentdropped35%overthepastyearasprojectsborethebruntof

headwindsfromhighercostsandpermittingchallenges,whichrespondentsofa

Deloittesurveyidentifiedasthemostsignificantconstraintsonrenewables(figure

2).4"Recordcurtailmentsfelledwindinmostindependentsystemoperators(ISOs).443

Andofthe55GWindelayedcleanpowerprojects,windprojectsarefacingthe

longestdelays,stretchingoutto16months."Anincreaseinlocalandstate

restrictionsandcontestationsofrenewableprojectsoverthepastyearalsoimpacted

windmorethanothersources(seethesidebartitled“GenerativeAI'simpacton

renewabledeploymentbottlenecks").45

GenerativeAI'simpactonrenewabledeploymentbottlenecks

WhilegenerativeAlisbeingusedtogenerateclimatedisinformation,fuelingsomeofthe

oppositiontorenewables,itisalsopoweringnewtoolsfordeveloperstoassesscommunitysentimenttowardrenewablesandautomatepermittingandsiting.“Forthelatter,generativeAlcanhelpselectthebestlocationsforrenewableenergyinstallations,consideringwind

patterns,solarexposure,andenvironmentalimpact.Itcanalsosuggestthebestsolarpanellayouttomaximizegenerationanddesignthemostefficientbladeswithpeakaerodynamics

forwind.In2024,moredevelopersareexpectedtousegenerativeAltoolstoinformandacceleraterenewableprojectdecisions,processes,configurations,andcommunity

engagement.

Offshorewindfaceshighcapitalrequirements,longprojectdevelopmentand

permittingtimelines,andlocked-inpowersalescontracts.'Developersexecutingagreementssignedduringlowinflationnowfacehigherfinancingcostsand40%

jumpinequipmentandconstructioncostsoverthepastyear,whilestate

policymakersmaynotbewillingtoprovideadditionalsupportthatcouldincrease

consumercosts.Fourcontractrenegotiationsandthreecancellationshaveimperiled

halftheoftheoffshorewindpipeline.Federalandstateactiontoexpedite

permitting,easefinancing,andadjustincentivesmaybeneededtokeepprojectsin

thepipelineandontrackformeetingtargets.

In2024,thetideisexpectedtostartturningastheindustrygetsmoresteelinthe

waterandadaptstothenewseascape.Developmentstowatchincludethestartof

operationsatVineyardWindinMassachusetts;"theconstructionofthecountry'slargestoffshorewindprojectinVirginia;"theOregon,CentralAtlantic,andsecond

GulfofMexicoleasesales;"andthepursuitofcoordinatedprocurementinthree

northeasternstates.”Flexiblestructuresandmarketparticipantsareexpectedtoreshapeagreements.FollowingTreasuryguidance,moredevelopersmayseekto

improveprojecteconomicsbysitingonshoregridconnectionsintheenergy

communitiesthatlineUScoastsandqualifyforanadder.'*Theremayalsobegreateruptakeoftheadderfromthegrowingpipelineofonshorewind-repoweringprojects

sincemostarelocatedinenergycommunities.?"

Tacklingtransmission

Transmissionisafactorinmostconstraintsonrenewabledeployment.Regardingthe

topcostconstraintsurveyrespondentsidentified(figure2),capturingthefull

customerbenefitoflow-costrenewableshingesontransmission.Insufficientcapacity

droveupcongestioncostsby72%in2022overthepreviousyeartoUS$20.8

billion.Interregionalandregionaltransmissionwouldneedtomorethandouble

andquintuple,respectively,tomeethighcleanenergygrowthprojectionsby2035.”

IJAandIRAprogramsandgrantscouldstarttacklingtransmissionissuesin2024.TheseincludetheDOE'sannouncedplanstoacceleratehigh-voltagetransmissionlinepermitting,US$3.9billioningrantsfromtheGridResilienceandInnovation

PartnershipsProgram,"andUS$1.3billioningrantsforthreeinterregionalgrid

projects.""Atthebeginningoftheyear,we'llbewatchingfortheDOE'sreleaseof

additionalTransmissionFacilitationProgramfundingandUSFederalEnergy

RegulatoryCommissioninterconnectionrulecomplianceplans,aswellas

complementaryISOinitiativestoreduceinterconnectionqueues.WeexpecttoseemorecorporationsparticipateinFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionregulatoryfilingsastransmissionconstraintsjeopardizetheirrenewabletargets.Atthesametime,IRAandIJAbooststorenewabledevelopmentcouldsignificantlyexacerbate

pressureontransmissionbottlenecksin2024.

Figure2

Surveyrespondentsconsiderhighercostsandpermittingchallengestobethemostsignificantconstraintsonrenewableenergy

Highercosts

Permittingchallenges

Resilienceconcerns

Supplychainissues

Interconnectionqueue

2%Noconstraints

2%Other

32%

24%

18%

12%

10%

Note:Q:Whatisthemostsignificantconstraintonyourrenewabledeploymentplansoverthenextyear?

Source:Deloitte2023powerandutilitiesindustrysurvey.

Deloitte.|/us/en/insights/research-centers/center-energyindustrials.html

2.Reshoringcleanenergy:Supplychainsshortenandstrengthen

Adomesticcleanenergymanufacturingrevivalisunderwayasproducersreshoreto

bettercapitalizeonIRAtaxcreditsandmeetdemandfromrenewabledevelopers

chasingdomesticcontentadders.SincetheIRApassed,companieshaveannouncedUS$91billionofinvestmentsinover200manufacturingprojects,includingUS$9.6billionin38solarprojects,US$14.4billionin27storageprojects,US$1.4billionin

14windprojects,andUS$54millioninsixhydrogenprojects,closelytracking

investmentlevelsintheirrespectiverenewableenergysources.Theseprojects'

shortenedsupplychainscouldincreasetransparencyandresiliencewhiledecreasing

emissionsandexposuretogeopoliticalvicissitudes.

Solarandstoragesettosurgedownstreamandstartextendingupstream

Announcedprojectscouldmorethantriplethisyear'ssolarphotovoltaicmodule

capacityin2024,growitbyanorderofmagnitudeby2026,andmeetUSdemandbefore2030(figure3)⁴—astrikingreversalfromUSimportdependencefor85%of

supplyin2022.WhileChinacurrentlyproduces83%ofthecellsandpolysilicon

and97%ofthewafersthatgointomodules,newdomesticpolysiliconcapacity

andtheUnitedStates'firstcell,wafer,andingotmanufacturingplantsareslatedto

comeonlinein2024.°Thisreshoringispremisedonbalancingdomesticpanels'

40%pricepremiumandthe40%taxincentive"formanufacturersthatuse40%

domesticcomponents.Thelatterpartofthisequationmaybeatriskbecause40

GWofmodulecapacityplannedby2025maynotqualifyforadomesticcontent

adderduetolackofsufficientcellcapacity.'Meanwhile,solarimportsmorethan

doubledinthefirsteightmonthsof2023amidglobalovercapacitythatdrovepricestorecordlows,placinghalfthepipelineatriskofdelaysorcancellation.?In2024,

theenforcementoftraderulesandtheUyghurForcedLaborPreventionAct?and

theexpirationofwaiversondutiescoveringsolarcellandmoduleimportsfrom

SoutheastAsiainJune?4couldaddressovercapacityconcerns.Andmorefar-reaching

finalTreasuryguidanceonthedomesticcontentaddercouldencourageupstream

investmentinwafers,ingots,andpolysilicon.

14.3

177.0

2.0

9.0

Figure3

CurrentandprojectedrenewablesupplychaincapacityadditionsintheUnitedStates

●Operatingcapacity●Newcapacityexpectedin2024—Totalexistingandannouncedcapacity

Solar(GWdc/year)

Polysilicon

25045

Ingots3

17.3

Wafers

Cells

Modules

Storage(GWh/year)

33.5

30.3

48.1

44.2

116.9

Cathodeactive

materials

Copperfoils

Cells

Batteries

100.0

100.0

50.5

28.3

212.0

516.4

Wind

(GW/year)

Blades

Nacelles

9.0

Offshorewindcapacity

15.(

60|210

Towers

2100210|220

Cleanhydrogen(GW/year)

Electrolyzers

Sources:DeloitteanalysisofdatafromtheSEIASolar&StorageSupplyChainDashboard;WoodMackenzie,USWindWatchH12023;HydrogenCouncil,HydrogenInsights2023;InternationalEnergyAgency,GlobalHydrogenReview2023;companyannouncements.

Deloltte.|/us/en/insights/research-centers/center-energyindustrials.html

Storageisonasimilartrajectoryassolar.Announcedprojectscoulddrivealmost

eightfoldgrowthinbatterymanufacturingcapacityin2024.PlannedcellproductioncouldgrowtheUSshareofglobalcapacityfrom4%in2022to15%bytheendofthedecadeinasegmentwhereChinacurrentlyholdsa79%share.Yet,lithium-ionbatteryimportsalsoreachedarecordhighin20237°andtheUScontinuestobefully

dependentonimportsforsomeupstreamsupplychaincomponents.”Companies

haveannouncedprojectstomanufacturecopperfoilsandcathodeactivematerials,

100GWhforeach,butnoneareexpectedtocomeonlinein2024.Expanded

UyghurForcedLaborPreventionActenforcementonbatteriescouldprovidefurther

impetustodomesticsupplychaindevelopmentin2024.

Windhomesinonoffshoregap

Thewindsupplychainismoredomesticallyrootedandevenlydistributedacross

componentsthansolarandstorage,butthelittlecapacitychangeplannedfor2024mayberaisingconcernsoffshore.Chinaleadstheglobalmarketforwindtoo:With

turbinessellingatprices70%lowerthantheirWesterncounterparts,Chinese

manufacturerexportsjumpedto70%ofwindturbineordersannouncedinthefirst

halfof2023.”Thegreaterroleofdeveloperrelationships,specifications,and

incentivesinoffshorewindhasrelativelyinsulateditssupplychainfromimport

pressure.Ontheotherhand,infrastructuredevelopmentandcapacityadditionshave

laggeddemandfromoffshorewinddevelopersseekingaccesstodomesticcontent

addersthatcouldimproveprojecteconomics.MeetingtheBidenadministration's

offshorewindtargetcouldrequireaUS$22.4billioninvestmentin34additional

manufacturingfacilities,10dedicatedvessels,and10ports."Whetherprojects

proceedin2024hingesontheoffshorewindpipeline'ssolidity.Thedevelopmentof18plannedcomponentmanufacturingfacilitiesandthecollaborationbetweennine

EastCoaststatesandfederalagenciesonoffshorewindsupplychainbuildoutare

anticipated.82

Hydrogenelectrolyzerstakeroot

Electrolytichydrogenisembryonicatatimewhenindustrialpolicyisascendantand

theglobalproductionlandscapeisstillinflux,providingamajoropportunityto

reshorerenewables.Thehigh-efficiencyelectrolyzersthatdominatetheUSpipeline

aremoreeconomic,despitehigherupfrontcosts,buttheyareexposedtocompetition

fromlow-costmanufacturingregions.Chinaisalreadyexpectedtoaccountfor

overhalfofglobalcapacityin2023.IntheUnitedStates,companieshave

announced9GWofelectrolyzermanufacturingcapacity,underaquarterofwhichis

expectedtocomeonlinein2024."Mostprojectsremainatearlystagesasthe

marketawaitsTreasuryguidanceongreenhydrogenthatcouldtriggeraburstofelectrolyzerdemand.36TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)estimateselectrolyzer

capacitywouldneedtogrowata20%compoundannualgrowthratetomeet

demandthrough2050.87In2024,wewillbewatchingtherelativecompetitivenessof

manufacturersfocusedonscaleversusmodularapproaches,andtheirabilitytokeep

pacewithdemand.Gapscouldpromptdomesticcontentrequirementsfor

electrolyzers.

Criticalmineralcrimptightens

TheIRAhasdrivenupenergytransitiondemandforthecriticalmineralsthat

underpinrenewablesupplychains.By2035,thisdemandisexpectedtorise15%and

13%higherthanpre-IRAnumbersforlithiumandcobalt,respectively,whichare

neededforstorage;14%fornickel,whichisinstorage,wind,andhydrogensupply

chains;and12%forthecopperneededacrossallenergytransitiontechnologies."88

Meanwhile,domesticandfreetradeagreementcountrysupplythatcouldqualifyfor

IRAincentivesislimited.Chinarefinesaroundhalfofglobalcopperproduction,

two-thirdsoflithium,three-quartersofcopper,andfour-fifthsofnickel."And

Indonesiannickel,whichaccountsforhalfofglobalminingcapacity,ismostly

Chineseinvested."Underinvestmentinminingamidcurrentlylowprices,combined

withlongleadtimesfornewprojectsthatcanstretchoveradecade,couldyield

yawningsupplygaps.Shortagesrangingfrom10%to40%acrossthesemineralsare

expectedby2030.”In2024,theimpactofChina'sgraphiteexportcontrolson

criticalmineralprojectsshouldbeobserved.Thebeginningofmassiveshiftsinthe

lithiummarketfromboththesupplyanddemandsidesmayalsobecomeapparent.Thediscoveryoftheworld'slargestknownlithiumdepositinNevadaattheendof

2023isapotentialgame-changer."Andthedevelopmentoflithiumalternatives,

suchassodiumstoragebatteries,couldaccelerateasmanufacturersusegenerativeAI

todevelopnewmoleculesfortesting.

Trendstowatchasrenewableenergycompaniesreshorein2024includethe

following:

·Companiesarepursuingstrategicreshoringjointventurestosecureastakeinthe

emergingdomesticsupplychain.Forexample,oneofthelargestrenewable

developersholdsmajorityownershipandagreementtoofftake40%ofoutputfrom

anewsolarpanelplantthatitisjointlydevelopingwithasolarmanufacturer.?"

AndamajorsolarmanufacturerbecamethelargestshareholderofaUSpolysilicon

manufacturer,strikinga10-yeartake-or-payagreementthathelpedrestartthe

plant'sproduction."Criticalmineralminingprojectsarealsoseeingdirect

investmentsfromcustomers.

·Supplych