国际天然气联盟-2023年全球天然气报告（英）

Global

Gas

Report

2023ForewordWe

arepleasedtopresentthe2023editionoftheGlobal

Gas

Report,whichoffersasignificantperspectiveontheevolutionoftheglobalgasmarketsamidstahistoricalglobalenergycrisis.Thiscrisishasbeenunfoldinginparallelwiththeenergytransitiontowardsa

moresustainablefuture,astheworldhasstruggledtoalignwiththedecarbonisationgoalsoutlinedintheParisAgreement.Globalemissionsgrewin2022withcoalrelatedemissionsreachinganall-timehigh,duetogastocoalswitchingamidstthegaspriceandsupplycrunch.StefanoVenierChiefExecutiveOfficer,SnamIn2022,theglobalgasmarkets

experiencedshiftsdemonstratingremarkableflexibilityandexceptionalresilience,inthefaceofunprecedentedshocksfromsupplyanddemandsides.TheseshocksincludedtheconflictbetweenRussiaandUkraine,whichexacerbatedto

theextremethealreadytightglobalsupplysituationanddrovegaspricestothehighesteverrecorded,asthesupplyofRussianpipelinegastoEuropedropped,causingapressingsearchforadditionalimportstothecontinent.Theunaffordablepricesweredetrimentaltomanydevelopingcountries,especiallyinSouthAsia,whosufferedpainfulenergysupplyshortagesandprolongedblackouts.LiYalanPresident,IGUNevertheless,bySeptember2023,Europeanstoragelevelsexceededrequiredcapacity,thankstoexpandedimportinfrastructure,massiveadditionalLNGinflows,andincreasedproductionofdomesticnaturalgas.WhileEurope’scommendablerapiddevelopmentofnewinfrastructureandefficientutilisationofexistinggasnetworkshasbeencriticalinrebalancingtheregionalsituation,weshouldnotforgetthatitdoesnoteliminatethelingeringsupplyrisk,asglobalgassupplyremainsjustasconstrained.MartinOpdalPartnerConsulting,RystadEnergyUndoubtedly,

wesawgreaterfocusonenergysecuritybygovernments,energycompanies,andfinancialinstitutions,withinvestmentsininfrastructureforsourcediversificationandalternativeenergysources.Thishelpedtoestablishanewequilibriuminthegasmarket,althoughitremainsunstableandseemsalreadychallengedbythenewconflictintheMiddleEastbetweenIsraelandHamas.We

arealsocontinuingtowitnessahighlevelofuncertaintyinenergysupplyplanningfor2030andbeyond.

Thesubstantialdiscrepanciesinmajorenergyandgasdemandandsupplyoutlookscenarioshaveintroduceda

significantlevelofriskintothegasmarkets

goingforward,

raisingquestionsaboutthenecessary

investmentstoachievea

morestableequilibrium.Wedelveintothisissuein-depthinthereport,

exploringtherangesofvariabilityacrossdifferentscenarioassumptionsandtheirimplicationsforsupplysecurityinthefuture.GlobalGasReport20233ForewordWe

emphasizethattheprolongedperiodoflowinvestmentinthedevelopmentofnaturalgasresourcesoverthepastdecadehasbeenamajorfactorcontributingtothecurrentsupplyshortage.To

achievebalanceinthemarketandtoensureaffordability,sustainability,andsecurityofsupply,newinvestmentsinnaturalgasarerequired,alongsideinvestmentsinlowcarbongaseousenergy,includingrenewablenaturalgas,hydrogenandcarboncaptureandstorage.As

wethinkabouthowmuchgaswewillneedinthecomingdecades,wemustn’tforgetabouttheemergingregionsoftheworldwherepopulationandenergyneedsarequicklygrowing.Thehugeeconomicenginesofthemostpopulouscountriesintheworld,China,andIndia,stillrelyheavilyoncoal,andthegascrisiscontributedtoanupwardtrajectoryofitsuse.Africaisthefastestgrowingregionoftheworldwiththeyoungestpopulation,600millionofwhichlacksaccesstopowerwhilemanyothersarefacedwithunstableenergysystemsandweakinfrastructurethatrequirereinforcementforanyenergytransitiontohappen.Importantly,whilenaturalgaswillcontinuetoplayapivotalroleintheenergytransitionfacilitatingthedecarbonisationoftheglobaleconomy,thegassectoritselfwillalsoundergoaprocessofdecarbonisation.Thisisimperative,andwecallforanaccelerationinthedeploymentofcarboncapture,low-carbon,andrenewablegases.We

alsostressthatdoublingdownontheeliminationofmethaneemissionsisrequiredtomakethistransitionpossible.Realisingtheseambitionswillrequirecollaborationwithinthegasindustryand,importantly,theimplementationofappropriatepolicytoolsandframeworks,includingemissionpricing,theremovalofbarrierstodeployment,andaccesstofinance.To

thisend,thisyear'sreportexploresfuturepathwaysfornaturalgas,low-carbon,andrenewablegasestodrivetheenergytransition,inconjunctionwiththeincreasingshareof

renewableenergyandstoragetechnologies.Amongstthepathways,weunderscorethecriticalimportanceofenergyconservationandefficiencytominimisedemand,withnumerousreadilyavailableopportunitiestopragmaticallyreducegasconsumptionwithouthurtingtheeconomy.Finally,aswehaveseeninaclearcaseexamplelastyearwhenitsavedEurope,LNGisacriticalenergysourcethatisflexible,abundant,andefficient.ThereportincludesahighlightsectionontheroleofLNGindeliveringessentialenergytransitionflexibilitynowandinthefuture,asitwillbecomeincreasinglynecessaryinadecarbonisedworld,whilealsoprogressingtodecarbonisingthefuel.So,weemphasizethatonlygasinvestmentscapableofdemonstratingtheirfuture-proofingandexcellenceinreducingmethaneemissionsarelikelytosucceed.Today

morethanever,

theworldrequirescomprehensiveenergyplanningtoachieveabetterbalancebetweensecurity,sustainability,andaffordability,becausewhensecurityandaffordabilityarecompromised,sustainabilityfadesoutoffocus.Hence,balancingthistrilemmaisessentialfortheglobalenergytransitiontotakeplaceandtoachievethedeepemissionsreductionnecessaryinthefightagainstclimatechange.We

inviteyoutodelveintothisreportandexplorethefuturepathwaysforthegasindustry,learninghowgaswillcontinuetoprovidetheassuranceofsustainable,secure,andaffordableenergyfortheworld.GlobalGasReport20234ContentsExecutivesummary61/Reviewofthemostturbulentyearinthehistoryofgas•Highlights1213151921303438•Developmentsingasdemand•Supplyandgasinvestments•Tradeflows•Pricing•Emissions•Developmenttrendsoflowcarbongases•Thehistoricalevolutionofenergypolicyprioritiesthroughtheenergytrilemmalens412/Lookingto

2030andbeyond-assessingtheassumptionsaboutfuturegasdemandandoutlook454647505153555861626364656768•Highlights•Uncertaintyinfuturegasdemandscenarios•Naturalgasinvestmentsstillcrucialinthelongterm•Mostscenarioscallforhighernaturalgasproduction•Futurebalancesoftradeflow•Addressinguncertaintiesinfuturegaspolicies•Casestudy:RoleofgasinChina'senergytransition3/Naturalgasandlowcarbongasesintheenergytransition•Highlights•Gasdecarbonisationframework•Energyandgasdemandconservationconsiderations•Gasas

flexibleanddispatchablesourceofpower•Casestudy:Futureroleofdispatchablesourcesinrenewablegrids•Casestudy:TheusecasesforBESSsystems•Capacityassurancemechanismsdemandedforenergystabilityandreliablepowergrids7071•Possibilitieswithrenewableandlowcarbongases•Reutilisingnaturalgas-firedpowergenerationinfrastructureforlowcarbongases767678808283848486•Criticalroleofgasinheavyindustries•Transiationofthebuildingsector•Methaneemissionreductioninitiative4/LNGasacriticalconduitforanorderlyenergytransition•Highlights•TheroleofLNGinfutureenergysystems•Small-scaleLNGforincreasedenergyaccessibiity•FlexibleLNGtobalanceouttroughs•RepurposingexisitingLNGinfrastructureforcleanandlowcarbonalternatives88GlobalGasReport20235ExecutiveSummary2022becamethemostturbulentyearinthehistoryofthegasindustry,markedbyunprecedentedsupplyandpriceshocks.In2023,assupplyremainstightanddemandoutlookuncertain,themarketenteredan“unstable”equilibrium,remaininghighlysensitivetoanymovementsoneithersupplyordemandside.Theenergytrilemmahascomeintosharpfocuswhentheworldwasremindedthatenergysecurityandaffordabilityarenecessaryto

stayonthecourseoftheenergytransition.Priortothecrisis,thepolicyfocuswaspositivelyonsustainability;however,itwasalsodeprioritisingsecurityandaffordability,asthosetwoseemedtobeassuredatthetime,untiltheyreturnedtobecomethepriorityin2022.As

evidencedbygrowingcoaluseandemissions,sustainabilitycannotbefullyrealisedwithoutthepillarsofsecurityandandAsiaoffsetby

stronggrowthinNorthAmerica.Fallingdemandintheregionshithardestby

theenergycrisispersistedduringH12023andwasprimarilydrivenby

industrialslowdownanddecreasedheatingdemandcausedby

amildwinterinthenorthernhemisphere.Althoughglobaldemanddroppedby1.5%in2022,regionaldemanddestructionwasalotmorepronounced.Europe’sgasdemanddecreasedbyalmost12%in2022year-on-year,inresponsetothesupplyandpriceshockscomingontheheelsoftheaffordability,andthereforeallthreeneedtobeinbalance.Naturalgas,lowcarbon,andrenewablegasesarecrucialcontributorsinthissense,astheyenabledevelopmentandindustrialisationindevelopingregions,enhancesustainabilitybyaddressingairqualityproblemsfromcoaluse,makethegridsmoreresilienttosupportmassivescale-upofrenewables,andfostercompetitiveindustrydecarbonisation.Forregionslookingtotransitiontorenewablesintheshortterm,gasanditsinfrastructureserveaskeyflexibleanddispatchablesourcestacklinglong-termintermittency,enhancingthereliabilityofgrids.Russia-Ukrainewar.

Thegoodluckofaverymild2022-23winterwasamajorcontributortoEurope’sreducedgasdemand,togetherwithsignificantlossesinindustrialdemand,gastocoalswitch,andrenewablesuptake.SpikesininternationalspotLNGpricescausedthedemandinAsiatofallby18Bcm(1.9%)in2022comparedto2021.SignificantdemanddestructionalsohappenedinSouthAsia,wherethepriceofLNGbecameunaffordable,causingswitchingtocoalwhereverpossibleandleadingtoshortagesandblackouts.Forinstance,PakistanandBangladeshsawa12%and15%reductioningasdemand,respectively.Onthecontrary,NorthAmericangasdemandgrewby4.8%or49Bcmyear-on-yearin2022,anotableincreasedrivenprimarilybyincreasedgas-firedpowerGlobalgasdemanddecreasedby

1.5%in2022comparedto

2021,withlargedeclinesinEuropeFigure1:Globalgasdemand,splitbyregionFigure2:Globalgasdemandsectoryear-on-yearchange,splitbyregion(2021–2022)BcmBcm4,5004,0553,99560493,9313,8364,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005001%4%1%4%1%4%4%4%40204%1%4%4%12%11%11%11%35214%12%0-20-40-60-8014%14%15%24%15%24%-1014%23%15%23%-19-23-6627%28%26%28%AsiaAfricaRussiaEuropeAustralia0MiddleEast2019202020212022North

AmericaPowerSouth

AmericaNorth

AmericaRussiaAsiaMiddleEastEuropeIndustrialHeatResidentialOthersFuelGasAfricaSouth

AmericaAustraliaCommercialTransportationSource:RystadEnergySource:RystadEnergyGlobalGasReport20236Executivesummarygenerationaswellasresidentialandcommercialapplications.TheNorthAmericanmarketpricesremainedlargelyisolatedandaffordable,duetoitspredominantlyregionalnaturewithdomesticproduction.Lookingat2023,fromJanuarytoAugust,theEuropeanUnion(EU)sawacumulativegasconsumptiondecreaseofroughly10%year-on-year(bothaneffectfromindustrialslowdownandtheEU’sintentionalswitchfromgastootherenergysources),whileChinasawgasdemandgrowby5.4%year-on-yearduringH12023.ThecommencementofthewarinUkrainein2022createdaperfectstormcausinggaspricesto

riseto

thehighestrecordever,

astheworldstruggledto

allocatethescarcegassupply.Gaspricesexperiencedmultiplerecordspikesaftertheonsetofthewarandtriggeredacascadeofgeopoliticalandenergysectorresponses.ThesituationwasfurtherimpairedwiththeexplosionoftheNordStreampipelineinSeptember2022.ThepeakgaspricewasseeninlateAugust2022,whenpricesreachedanall-timehighastheNetherlands-basedTitleTransferFacility(TTF)closedataround90USD/MMBtuandAsianspotLNGpricessurgedpast60USD/MMBtu.AsianpricesconsistentlytradedbelowtheTTF,thankstoacombinationoffactorsthatincludesfluctuatingdemandduetoCovid-19-relatedlockdownsinChina,price-induceddemandcontractioninthesouth,southeastregions,andfuel-switching.Globalgasproductionin2022stayedflatincomparisonto

2021withamarginal8.3Bcmuptick,whichislessthana0.5%increaseyear-on-year.Thefirsthalfof2023sawamildrevivalinglobalgassupply,yetthefinalannualresultremainsuncertain.Lookingbackat2022,curtailmentofGazprom’soutputinRussiawasoffsetbysupplygrowthinNorthAmerica,whichgrewfrom1,160Bcmto1,213Bcm,andintheMiddleEast,whichgrewfrom670Bcmin2021to687Bcmin2022.InEurope,incrementalproductionin2022largelycamefromNorway,whichhasbeenmaximisingoutput(7%growthyear-on-year)toincreaseexportstotherestofthecontinent.InAsia,gasproductionrosemodestlyfrom696Bcmin2021to712Bcmin2022,drivenmainlybyhigherproductioninChinaandCentralAsia.Bycontrast,Africaexperiencedfallinggasproductionof1%(2.9Bcm)between2021and2022.Gaspriceshavecooledin2023,largelyduetodemand-sideadjustmentsinEuropeandAsia,yettheyremainabovepre-covidandpre-energycrisislevels.Theshortageofglobalsupply,whichwasthekey

reasonbehindlastyear’sshocks,isstillthere:themarketisinastateofafragileandunstableequilibrium.Thiscoolinghasbeendrivenbydemandcontraction,marginalsupplygrowthandinfrastructuredebottlenecking.Nonetheless,Europe'sgrowingdependenceonLNGhasrenderedglobalgaspricesincreasinglyvulnerabletoglobalLNGsupplyrisk,asshownduringrecentpricemovementsduetothestrikesinAustralia.Atthetimeofwriting,thenewdevelopment,andthe2022witnessedunparalleledturmoilingasprices.Sincelate2021gaspriceshadbeenelevatedandvolatile,andtradebalancestight.Figure3:InternationalgaspricesUSD(real)

per

MMBtu120ReportsofsabotageontheNordStream

pipelinesandthreatsto

energyinfrastructureas

Europeroiledunderconcurrentheatwaves10080604020Onset

ofRussia-Ukraine

warheightensconcernsoverRussianpipelinesupply20220-19Jan-19Mar-19-19-19Sep-19Nov-20Jan-20Mar-20-20-20Sep-20Nov-21Jan-21Mar-21-21-21Sep-21Nov-22Jan-22Mar-22-22-22Sep-22Nov-23Jan-23-23-23-23SepJulJulJulJulJulMayMayMayMayMar

MayHenry

HubLNGNortheast

AsiaTTFSource:RystadEnergy;Argus(LNGNortheastAsia)GlobalGasReport20237ExecutivesummaryongoingescalationoftheconflictintheMiddleEastissparkingfurtherpricevolatilityandtensioninthemarket,highlightingonceagainhowinageneralcontextoftightmarkets,gashubpricesarehighlysensitivetogeopoliticalturmoilandsupplydynamics.Figure4:Globalenergyemissions,splitbyenergysourceMegatonnes

CO2eq.50,00045,000LNGhasbeencrucialinnavigatingthroughthegasmarketcrisis,playingakey

roleinoffsettingtheshortageinEurope,withtradegrowingby4%.OverH12023,globalLNGexportssawa4.1%year-on-yearincrease,despitevolatilitiesduetofacilitymaintenanceandoutagesduringtheNorthernhemispheresummermonths.InthecontextofthegloballytightLNGsupply,whileitwasinstrumentalinkeepingthelightsoninEurope,theunaffordablepricesleftsomecountriesinAsiainthedark.

In2022,Europe’snaturalgasimportsshiftedfromRussianpipelinestowardsLNGleadingtoa69%increaseinitsLNGimports,reaching124milliontonnes(169Bcm)andmakingEuropethebiggestimportingmarket,absorbingasignificantshareoftheglobalLNGvolumebyoutbiddingothercustomers.Roughlytwothirdsoftheadditionalvolumes(~30milliontonnes)camefromtheUnitedStates.InAsia,ChinareducedLNGimportsfromAustraliaandtheUnitedStatesbyatotalof21milliontonnes,whileitincreasedimportsfromQatarbyapproximately7.4milliontonnes.InSeptember2023,therewasdisruptioningassupplyfromAustraliaduetorollingstrikes,workbansandstoppagesattheGorgonandWheatstoneLNGfacilities,potentiallyaffectingaround5%ofglobalLNGproduction,impactingvolatilityandlevelofinternationalgaspriceindexes.41,8158%41,9828%41,5629%42,0299%40,8458%40,0048%39,9259%40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000017%17%17%17%18%16%18%35%35%34%34%36%36%34%40%39%39%39%39%40%40%2016Coal201720182019202020212022LiquidsGasOthersSource:RystadEnergyTotal

globalenergyCO2emissionsin2022continuedanupwardtrajectorywitha1.1%yearlygrowth,reachinganotherrecord.Emissionsfromcombustionofnaturalgassawaminordeclinein2022,totallingabout7.2giga-tonnesCO2-e,partlyattributedtopricespikeswhichincentivisedgas-to-coalandgas-to-oilswitching.Anall-timehighinemissionsfromcoalwasreachedatabout16.8giga-tonnesofCO2-e,despiteworldwideinitiativestodiminishdependency.2022and2023continuedthedecade-longtrendwithcoalhavinga40%shareofglobalpowersectoremissions,whileFigure5:GlobalcarbonpricingmapCanada’s

CarbonTax:48

USD/

tCO

2e*~125

USD/

tCO

2eby

2030ETSandcarbontaximplementedEU

ETS:60

USD/

tCO

2eETSorcarbontaxunderconsideration/developmentETSimplementedotherpricingunderconsideration/developmentUSA’s

CarbonTax:ETSimplemented12–

30USD/

tCO

2eCarbontaximplemented*No

federalcarbontaxbutsomestatesimposetheirowntaxesCarbontax

implemented,

ETSunderconsideration/developmentArgentina’sCarbon

Tax:Chile’s

Carbon

Tax:5

USD/

tCO

2e3

USD/

tCO

2eAustralia

(Safeguard

Mechanism

):11

USD/

tCO

2eSource:RystadEnergy;World

BankGlobalGasReport20238ExecutivesummarytheglobaleconomicenginesandmajorenergyconsumerslikeChinaandIndiaincreasedtheircoalusageandapprovednewcoalplantstomitigateenergysecurityrisks.Coalusagegrowthshowstheimportanceofstabilityinglobalgasmarketsinminimisingemissions.InH12023,lowergasprices,nuclearrecovery,andpowerproductionfromrenewableenergysourceshavereducedcoalconsumptionandemissions,especiallyinEurope.gasproductionlevelisexpectedtoreachabout4,100Bcmin2023.Theseoutputvolumesareprojectedtodeclinetoabout3,100Bcmin2030duetoassetmaturationandnaturaldecline.Theprojectionindicatesafurtherdeclineto1,850Bcmin2040,followedbyadecreasetojustunder1,000Bcmin2050.Amidsttheenergytransitiontargetsandshiftingsupplydynamics,decarbonisationpolicieshavebeendisproportionatelyfocusedonthesupplyside,whileenergyconservationanddemand-responsehavebeenoverlookedaspowerfultoolsforemissionsreductionthroughreducingoverall

energyusage.Proactivedemandmanagementplanningwillpromotea

moreefficientuseofenergyandsimultaneouslyreducetightnessoftheglobalgasmarket

byreducinggasdemandinaneconomicallyandindustriallysustainableway,

whileeffortstobolstersupplythroughoptimisationmustoccurinparallel.Theseactionscanimproveresourceavailability,shoreupenergysecurity,andstabilisetheenergylandscape.Measuresfallinto“preventive”and“reactive”categories,respectivelymanagingAnalysisoffuturepotentialtrajectoriesofglobalgasdemandfromawiderangeofexistingenergytransitionoutlookstowards2030andbeyondrevealsunprecedenteduncertaintyandillustratesthatcontinuedinvestmentsinthenaturalgasvaluechainareneededto

copewithnaturalsupplydecline,globaldemanddynamics,andlikelygrowthinseveralregions.Gasdemandscenarioshaveimportantimplicationsforpolicydecisions,asthesupplywillneedtobedevelopedaheadofdemand.Forthisreason,comprehensiveandbalancedenergyplanningisneededtoavoidfurthersupplycrises.Otherwise,therequirednaturalgassupplymaynotbedevelopedtomeetdemandresultinginheightenedemissionlevelsandincreasingfrequenciesofblackouts.Restoringasustainablebalanceintheglobalgasmarketisimperativeandrequiresaddressingtheexistingsupplyshortfall,anoutcomeofaprolongedconsumptionproactivelyandrespondingswiftlytoperiodsofresourceconstraintsorgridstress.Theaccelerationoflowcarbongaseousenergyisanessentialbuildingblockoftheenergyunder-investmentperiod.Investmentlevelsingassupplydevelopmenthavebeenreducedby58%intheperiodbetween2014and2020,andonlystartedtomarginallyrecoverin2021.Withoutadditionalinjections,thecurrenttotalexistingandapprovedtransition.AbatednaturalgaswithCCUS,greenandbluehydrogen(includingderivativeslikecleanammonia),biomethaneande-methane,willplayanincreasinglysignificantroleinanachievableandjusttransition,offeringaviabledecarbonisationoptioninFigure6:Globalgasdemandscenariosfromvariousinstitutionsversusoperational,

approvedanddiscoveredassets(2010–2050)1Bcm6,000IEEJReferenceCase5,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000RystadEnergy2.2-degreesStatedPolicies(2022)RystadEnergy1.9-degreesAnnounced

Pledges(2022)RystadEnergy1.6-degreesNet

Zero(2022)RystadEnergy1.5-degrees201020152020202520302035204020452050AbandonedProducingUnderdevelopmentDiscoverySource:IEA;

IEEJapan;RystadEnergy1All

historical

and

forecasted

values

are

scaled

to

be

identical

in

2022

to

account

for

different

heating

and

caloric

assumptions.GlobalGasReport20239Executivesummarymanyapplicationssuchaspowergeneration,reactant/feedstockneed,heating,andheavytransport,providedtheyareaccessibleinsufficientquantitiesandarecost-effective.Duringthetransition,blendingcanbeperformedbetweenmethaneandlowcarbonandrenewablegases,toreduceemissions.Althoughthereismomentuminlowcarbonandrenewablegassupplygrowth,reinforcedsignificantlybytheenergycrisisandambitiousnewenergytransitionpolicies,thescaleofcurrentsupplyprojectsremainsminimalincontrasttothepressingneedtoaccelerateproductionandinfrastructureavailability.Attheendof2022,theglobalsupplycapacityoflowcarbonhydrogenstoodat3.2milliontonnesperannum(MTPA),withmostofthecapacitycomingfrombluehydrogen,andbiomethanestoodcloseto7Bcm.However,recentpolicyintroductions,suchastheInflationReductionAct(IRA)intheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanhydrogenbank,haveimprovedtheeconomicviabilityofallhydrogentypes,supportingtheaccelerationofdesiredhydrogensupplies.EuropeandtheUnitedStatesmaintaintheirleadingpositionsinbiomethaneproduction,producingabout6.1BcmcombinedasofSeptember2023–Europehasambitionstoincreasebiomethaneproductionto35Bcmby2030,Figure7:Cleanhydrogencumulativecapacitybystatus,includingpre-FIDprojects(2010–2030)2MilliontonnesofBlue

/Green

H2504540353025201510502010201520202025Pre-FID2030OperationalFID/UnderConstructionSource:RystadEnergyintermittentrenewableenergysources,

theirgridscanalsobebalancedwithdispatchablegasgeneration.InAfrica,evenregionswithhighlevelsofaccesshaveweakandunstablegrids,frequentlysufferingfromoutages.Theseelectricitygridswouldrequireadditionalreinforcementandflexiblecapacitytointegratelarge-scalerenewableswithoutriskingacollapse.comparedto2021levelofaround3.5Bcm.Meanwhile,China’sbiomethanecapacitybuildouthasfallenshortofprojections.CCUSisexpectedtogrowsevenfold,fromaround50MTPA

in2023to370MTPA

by2033.Thegrowthofrenewableenergysourceswithinthepowermixisdirectlycorrelatedwithagrowingneedforreliable,dispatchable,andflexiblecapacityresourcesto

balancegridsduringperiodsofrenewableenergysourcesintermittency.Gas-firedgenerationisacriticalsourceoflong-durationflexibility,asopposedtoshort-termbalancingwhichcanbeeffectivelydeliveredthroughbatteries.Gasisthemostcost-effectivegridresilienceresource,andhighrenewableenergysourcescapacityadditionswilllikelyrequirepairingwithgas-firedgenerationcapacitytomaintaingridsecurity.Thelevelofgas-firedgenerationwouldvary,basedonthepaceoftheenergytransitionindifferentcountriesandregions.EmergingChinaisthelargestenergyconsumerintheworldandisexpectedto

remainanaturalgasdemandpowerhouse,asgasrepresentsakey

pillarofitsdecarbonisationpolicy-forecastingthatgasimportswillmakeupasignificantshareofitsfuturegasneeds.In2022,naturalgasrepresented8%ofChina’senergymixwhilecoalsupplied56%ofthecountry’senergyconsumption.Chinaplanstoincreasenaturalgas’shareinitsenergymixsignificantly.Naturalgaspowergenerationisexpectedtoincreasealongsiderenewableenergygeneration,from0.3PWhhoursin2022to0.6PWhin2030and0.8PWhin2040.Theadditionalgas-firedcapacityactsasabackupanddispatchableenergysourceintheeventofashortageofrenewablepowergeneration,enablingChinatocallonastablesourceofenergywithquickramp-upcapability.China’sexistinggas-firedpowergenerationcapacityof115GWisprimedtonearlytripleby2040to330GW,

whichwillequaltoaround380Bcmofgasperannum.economies,suchasthoseinAfricawheregeneralenergypovertyisstillhigh,andinAsiawherecoalplantsstilldominate,gaspresentsastableandsustainablealternativetoenergiseeconomieswhileloweringthecarbonintensityofthegrids.Whenthesecountriesmovetowardsadoptionof2Most

bl